来源：滚动播报 梅利乌斯研究公司将微软评级下调至持有。 ...

以下文章来源于硬AI ，作者专注科技产研的 硬AI . AI时代，快人一步~ 来源 | 硬AI 随着AI基础设施建设的军备竞赛进入"深水区"，一个令投资者不安的转折点已然浮现：为了支撑AI算力需求，亚马逊、谷歌和Meta正 面临自由现金流被耗尽甚至透支的风险。 根据摩根大通2026年2月5日发布的研究报告，美国四大云巨头——亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软，2026年总资本支出预计将达到6450 亿美元，同比激增56%，新增支出将达到惊人的2300亿美元。 对于投资者而言，2026年，或将是紧盯科技巨头资产负债表的一年。 谷歌97%的增速与亚马逊的"现金赤字" 在这场基建狂潮中，谷歌的投入非常激进。 2026年，谷歌的资本支出指引已上调至1750亿至1850亿美元，同比增速高达97%，其资金正疯狂涌向服务器和技术基础设施。 如果说谷歌还只是在"疯狂花钱"，那么亚马逊则堪称"透支未来"。 2026年，亚马逊的资本支出指引约为2000亿美元（同比增长52%）。但问题的核心在于，亚马逊赚回来的现金已经盖不住支出了—— 据标普全球市场分析师预测，亚马逊2026年的运营现金流（OCF）约为1780亿美元。 这意味着，亚马逊 ...

作者 Yiannis Zourmpanos ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意 味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 微软不仅在持续增长，更在实现 复利式扩张 ：巨额未履约合同储备（RPO）锁定未来收入， Azure、Foundry、Copilot 从基础设施到应用层形成互补，大幅提升客户粘性 。公司主动加 大投入，正在搭建具备长期生命力的 AI 基础设施。值得注意的是，微软股价回调，而长期投 资逻辑并未改变。 6250 亿美元未履约合同：12 个月内将转化约 1560 亿美元收入 微软凭借一体化云服务与 AI 规模化，形成独特运营优势，核心在于 Azure 云基础设施、自研 模型平台（Foundry）、终端应用（Copilot） 三者深度协同，推动多业务板块营收复利增 长。 2026 财年第二季度，微软云业务收入达 515 亿美元，同比增长 26%，公司正从技术栈的每 一层实现商业化变现。 其中，Azure 及其他云服务同比大增 39%，AI 服务是核心增长引 擎，远超行业 9.22% 的收入增速中位数。这种多层级变现模式包括：销售底层算力 （Azure）、模型访问权限（Foundry）、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential growth in the space photovoltaic sector driven by SpaceX's acquisition of xAI, which is expected to create significant demand for solar energy in space [9][18] - The AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector is experiencing a surge in capital expenditure from major cloud companies, indicating strong growth opportunities for related electrical equipment manufacturers [9][13] - The solid-state battery industry is advancing towards commercialization, with significant policy support and technological developments expected to enhance profitability and valuation in the lithium battery sector [17][18] - The energy storage sector is set to benefit from the newly implemented capacity pricing policy, which is anticipated to drive rapid growth in demand for energy storage solutions [19] - The wind power sector is witnessing significant overseas expansion, with Chinese companies successfully securing projects and increasing exports, particularly in the offshore wind segment [20][22] Summary by Sections AIDC Electrical Equipment - Continuous high growth in capital expenditure is observed, with major companies like Alphabet and Amazon significantly increasing their 2026 capital expenditure forecasts [9][13] - The demand for high-density power solutions is expected to rise, providing historical growth opportunities for domestic AIDC manufacturers [10][13] Robotics - The launch of the full-size humanoid robot "Bolt" and advancements in AI-driven robotics are expected to create new investment opportunities in the robotics sector [14] - Companies like Xiaomi and Huawei are positioned to leverage their existing technology in the robotics field, presenting potential investment avenues [14] Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery industry is moving towards mass production, with key technological breakthroughs and supportive policies expected to accelerate the commercialization process [17][18] - Companies with strong technological capabilities and production capacity in solid-state battery materials and equipment are likely to benefit [17] Photovoltaics and Energy Storage - The integration of space computing capabilities is projected to open new growth avenues for the photovoltaic industry, with significant investments planned by SpaceX and Tesla [18] - The newly established capacity pricing policy for energy storage is expected to enhance investment confidence and drive rapid growth in the sector [19] Wind Power - Chinese companies are making significant strides in overseas markets, particularly in offshore wind projects, with a notable increase in exports expected [20][22] - The wind power sector is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [20][22] Grid Investment - The State Grid's investment is set to increase significantly, marking the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development in China's grid infrastructure [21][22] - The demand for smart grid solutions is expected to rise, driven by the need for enhanced energy management and integration of renewable sources [21][22]

Core Insights - Peter Thiel, a prominent tech investor with a net worth of approximately $24.6 billion, has a hedge fund portfolio that surprisingly includes only three AI stocks, excluding major players like Nvidia and Palantir [2]. Group 1: Tesla - Thiel reduced his hedge fund's position in Tesla by 76% in Q3 2025, yet it remains the largest holding in his portfolio [3]. - Thiel has expressed skepticism about Tesla CEO Elon Musk's focus on humanoid robots, which may have influenced his decision to sell a significant portion of Tesla stock [5]. - Thiel views self-driving technology as a significant innovation, and Tesla's extensive real-world autonomous driving data could provide a competitive edge [4]. Group 2: Microsoft - In Q3, Thiel acquired 49,000 shares of Microsoft, making it the second-largest holding in his hedge fund, representing around 34% of total holdings [6]. - This investment aligns with Thiel's belief that value shifts from "shovel sellers" like Nvidia to "builders" like Microsoft, which focuses on cloud services and AI integration [7]. - Thiel sold all stakes in Nvidia during Q3, indicating a strategic pivot towards companies that build rather than just supply technology [7].

每经AI快讯，2月9日，美股软件股盘前上涨，微软涨0.8%，Datadog涨 1.2%，ServiceNow涨0.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent sell-off in global software stocks, termed "SaaSpocalypse," triggered by the launch of Anthropic's Claude Cowork, which poses a significant challenge to traditional SaaS business models by offering high-level results at lower costs [5][10]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 4, major software companies experienced significant stock declines, with Thomson Reuters dropping 15.8%, LegalZoom nearly 20%, and Salesforce and Workday also seeing notable decreases [5]. - The S&P 500 Software and Services Index fell nearly 13% over five trading days, marking a 26% drop from its October peak [5]. - The sell-off is compared to a previous market panic caused by DeepSeek, highlighting the similarities in market reactions to disruptive AI technologies [7][10]. Group 2: Comparison of Two Market Panics - The panic caused by Cowork is expected to be more prolonged than that of DeepSeek, as Cowork represents a novel AI application, while DeepSeek was a cheaper alternative to existing models [10]. - The market's response to both events shows a pattern of overreaction, with analysts suggesting that the fears may be exaggerated [9][10]. - Cowork's impact has spread beyond the U.S. to global markets, affecting stocks in London, Tokyo, and India, indicating a broader concern within the tech industry [11]. Group 3: SaaS Pricing Models and Challenges - Traditional SaaS pricing models are under pressure, with many companies shifting from fixed pricing to usage-based models due to increased efficiency and cost-cutting measures [14][15]. - The average SaaS company in the PricingSaaS 500 index has experienced 3.6 pricing changes per year, with a significant increase in companies adopting usage-based pricing [15]. - Companies like Salesforce have struggled with pricing strategies, leading to a transition from fixed pricing to more flexible models to accommodate rising operational costs [15][17]. Group 4: Emergence of AI-Native Startups - AI-native startups are gaining traction, with their revenue growth rates significantly outpacing traditional SaaS companies, highlighting a shift in enterprise spending towards these new players [18]. - For instance, companies like Harvey and Glean have achieved valuations of $5 billion and $7.25 billion, respectively, indicating strong investor interest in AI-driven solutions [18]. - The article notes that AI-native companies are expected to capture over half of enterprise AI spending, reflecting a fundamental change in the software landscape [18]. Group 5: Vibe Coding and Its Implications - The rise of Vibe Coding could lead enterprises to create their own tools rather than relying on third-party SaaS products, potentially disrupting traditional software markets [20][21]. - If Vibe Coding matures, it may enable employees to develop solutions quickly, reducing reliance on complex software development processes [21]. - The article suggests that traditional software companies may face a "three-step path to extinction" if they fail to adapt to these emerging trends [22].

The first trading week of February generated significant losses across financial markets, and on February 9, 2026, the famous ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry took to X to offer a laconic insight into what is behind the sell-off. In his X post, the famous trader opined that the markets have been ‘jittery’ due to ‘historic overvaluation, historic capital expenditures, and tiny “AI” revenue.’ Interestingly, the tweet was in response to Tae Kim, a former Bloomberg columnist and current Barron’s senior tech w ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the aggressive marketing strategies employed by AI giants like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Amazon during the Super Bowl, with each company spending between $8 million to $10 million for 30-second ads, reaching approximately 120 million viewers [2] - The ads showcased the intense competition in the AI sector, with Anthropic mocking OpenAI's advertising strategy, emphasizing a fundamental divergence in their business models [2][7] - The marketing push reflects a pressing need for AI technology to appear more "humanized," as only 17% of American adults believe AI will have a positive impact in the next two decades [5] Group 2 - The report from Stanford University indicates that over 80% of global AI computing power is concentrated in North America, highlighting a stark contrast between the marketing narrative of inclusivity and the actual resource distribution [3] - The high advertising expenditures during the Super Bowl signify a shift in the advertising landscape, with traditional advertisers like automotive companies reducing their spending while AI firms fill the void [6] - The strategic investments in advertising by companies like Amazon and Microsoft reflect a broader strategic positioning within the cloud computing ecosystem, with AI platforms expected to exceed $1 billion in digital advertising spending by 2025 [4] Group 3 - The ongoing debate about AI's privacy implications and long-term investment value continues, with concerns about emotional dependency on AI and the potential for hidden data collection practices [6] - The public dispute between Anthropic and OpenAI reveals strategic differences in their business models, with Anthropic favoring an ad-free subscription model while OpenAI explores mixed monetization strategies [7] - The success of the emotional advertising campaign could significantly enhance consumer adoption of AI, but true democratization of AI will depend on making advanced capabilities accessible to developers in lower-resource regions [8]

每经AI快讯，2月9日，美股大型科技股盘前多数上涨，亚马逊、微软涨0.8%，特斯拉涨0.5%，谷歌A涨 0.3%，Meta涨0.2%，英伟达、苹果跌0.3%。 ...