Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to utilize at least 50% of its free cash flow (FCF) for shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends, particularly in the latter half of the fiscal year [2][3]. Financial Performance - In fiscal 2026, Nvidia reported $215.9 billion in revenue and $96.6 billion in FCF, allocating $41.1 billion for stock buybacks and dividends, which is 42.6% of its FCF [3]. - Analyst estimates predict earnings per share of $8.28 for fiscal 2027, a 69% increase from $4.90 in fiscal 2026, suggesting a potential FCF of $163.3 billion for fiscal 2027, leading to over $80 billion in buybacks and dividends [4]. Dividend Strategy - Currently, Nvidia pays a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share, costing $974 million in fiscal 2026, with most capital returns directed towards buybacks [5]. - The significant projected FCF and trends among other major tech companies indicate a strong case for Nvidia to increase its dividend [6]. Business Model Evolution - Nvidia's software is integrated into its hardware solutions, which positions the company to benefit from a shift towards recurring revenue through AI deployment rather than relying solely on hardware sales [9][10]. - The transition to an inferencing model allows Nvidia to generate recurring revenue from enterprise software, support contracts, and licensing, reducing dependence on hardware sales [11][12]. Investor Attraction - Implementing a dividend could attract a broader investor base, particularly those seeking passive income, and could lead to regular annual increases in dividends similar to practices by Microsoft and Apple [13].

美以伊冲突持续，全球资本市场表现如何？ —— 资本市场周报（2026 年第 1 期） 分析师：许冬石、吴京 CGS-NDI 周度报告 美以伊冲突持续，全球资本市场表现如何？ —— 资本市场周报（2026 年第 1 期） 2026 年 3 月 23 日 核心观点 分析师 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 许冬石 ：010-8092 7609 ：xudongshi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515030003 吴京 ：010-8092 7702 ：wujing_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523080001 研究助理：郝安琪 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 | 一、 | 本期焦点：美以伊冲突影响全球资本市场几何？ | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 | 全球资本市场行情概览 | 5 | | （一）A | 股、港股行情回顾 | 5 | | | （二）海外 ...

Key TakeawaysSpot gold prices plummeted over 7% to $4,161.89/oz, marking a 25% decline from the January all-time high as a souring risk tone triggers massive liquidations.Geopolitical tensions spiked following reports of a U.S. fighter jet crash in Kuwait and indirect threats from Iran targeting regional electrical and water infrastructure.Goldman Sachs issued a hawkish pivot for the ECB, now forecasting 25-basis-point rate hikes in both April and June 2026.Japan’s Rengo confirmed a robust 5.26% average wag ...

为推动产品多元化，并允许日内交易者进行更多杠杆交易，韩国金融服务委员会(FSC)于1月表示，将加 快单只股票产品的审批流程。一位FSC官员称，监管机构目前正依据1月发布的公告与相关方进行磋 商，并致力于确保系统平稳升级。 不过，引入单只股票杠杆型ETF可能会加剧市场波动，因为这类产品会放大交易活跃股票的收益与损 失。在韩国这个以散户投资者为主导的市场中，这种影响可能尤为显著，因为资金往往集中流向权重较 大的半导体类股票。 智通财经获悉，韩国首批与芯片行业领军企业三星电子和SK海力士公司挂钩的单一股票杠杆交易所交 易基金(ETF)，最早将于5月面世。据报道，三星资产管理公司和未来资产环球投资公司等大型资产管理 公司已在筹备推出相关产品。杠杆型ETF旨在实现标的股票或指数每日表现两至三倍的收益，收益与损 失均会被放大。 鉴于此类产品风险较高，韩国迄今一直禁止单只股票杠杆型ETF在当地上市。然而，这却促使韩国热衷 冒险的散户投资者纷纷涌向香港的同类产品。过去一年，得益于人工智能驱动的芯片需求，三星和SK 海力士的股价成倍增长，直至伊朗战争引发市场情绪恶化。 韩国金融服务委员会于1月表示，杠杆倍数将限制在标的股票价格 ...

智通财经APP获悉，韩国首批与芯片行业领军企业三星电子和SK海力士公司挂钩的单一股票杠杆交易 所交易基金(ETF)，最早将于5月面世。据报道，三星资产管理公司和未来资产环球投资公司等大型资产 管理公司已在筹备推出相关产品。杠杆型ETF旨在实现标的股票或指数每日表现两至三倍的收益，收益 与损失均会被放大。 鉴于此类产品风险较高，韩国迄今一直禁止单只股票杠杆型ETF在当地上市。然而，这却促使韩国热衷 冒险的散户投资者纷纷涌向香港的同类产品。过去一年，得益于人工智能驱动的芯片需求，三星和SK 海力士的股价成倍增长，直至伊朗战争引发市场情绪恶化。 为推动产品多元化，并允许日内交易者进行更多杠杆交易，韩国金融服务委员会(FSC)于1月表示，将加 快单只股票产品的审批流程。一位FSC官员称，监管机构目前正依据1月发布的公告与相关方进行磋 商，并致力于确保系统平稳升级。 不过，引入单只股票杠杆型ETF可能会加剧市场波动，因为这类产品会放大交易活跃股票的收益与损 失。在韩国这个以散户投资者为主导的市场中，这种影响可能尤为显著，因为资金往往集中流向权重较 大的半导体类股票。 随着韩国本土产品的落地，这部分追逐三星和海力士波动的 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang predicts that demand for AI chips will reach at least $1 trillion by 2027, doubling last year's forecast, indicating a significant shift in the chip industry towards interconnectivity as the bottleneck for AI computing power transitions from processing to connectivity [1][9] - The establishment of organizations like XPO MSA and Open CPX MSA at the OFC 2026 conference highlights the industry's consensus on the necessity of optical interconnects for AI data centers, with Arista leading the development of new liquid-cooled pluggable optical modules capable of 12.8 Tbps [1][2] Interconnect Bottleneck Shift - Huang's "Huang's Law" suggests that while processing power can continue to improve through advancements in manufacturing and 3D packaging, the I/O rates between chips are lagging, creating an "I/O wall" that limits the expansion of AI clusters [1] - Traditional copper cabling is nearing its physical limits in handling frequencies of 800G and above, restricting effective transmission distances to under 1 meter for 400G SerDes, which hampers the scalability of AI clusters across cabinets [1] Industry Index and ETF - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index (000685) is designed to serve as a benchmark for the entire "computing power + interconnect" industry chain, including semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, chip design, and PCB materials [2][3] - The index includes up to 50 leading companies from the semiconductor industry, ensuring comprehensive coverage of key segments related to the interconnect revolution [3] ETF Performance and Structure - The Guotai Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) closely tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index, providing investors with a standardized tool to replicate index returns [4] - As of March 16, 2026, the ETF has demonstrated a tracking error of only 0.007%, indicating high precision in mirroring the index's performance [5] - The ETF's holdings are well-aligned with the index, balancing heavy and light asset segments to match the comprehensive coverage of the industry chain [6] Investment Value of Interconnect Revolution - The rise of the interconnect revolution signifies a deeper investment logic in the chip sector, emphasizing the importance of interconnect infrastructure that supports computing clusters, rather than solely focusing on the chips themselves [8] - The demand for interconnect technology is expected to grow steadily, driven by Nvidia's forecast of $1 trillion in AI chip demand, which will also boost the demand for related interconnect devices and materials [8] - Domestic companies in the optical chip and high-speed PCB sectors are positioned to benefit from low domestic production rates and external capacity shortages, as evidenced by significant revenue growth in companies like Solstice [8]

Nvidia (NVDA 3.17%) is currently the world's largest company, with a market cap of $4.4 trillion. However, I think that over the next three years, it could grow to $10 trillion. If that view proves accurate, Nvidia would be a no-brainer stock to buy at today's prices. The math for a megacap to more than doubleNvidia grew to its current massive size thanks to insatiable demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) processors. Companies cannot get enough of its computing units, which allows it to charge premiu ...

I mentioned several times that I am not a fan of buy-write ETFs, meaning ETFs that buy shares in an underlying and sell covered Call options. The problems come from their mechanical approach, with the same expiration date (usually"Fundamental Options" would be the title of my investing style, because I combine fundamental analysis with the power of options. I use Fundamental Analysis to quantitatively and qualitatively assess individual stocks and ETFs, and I pursue various strategies: Income oriented, espe ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 英伟达GTC 2026正式开幕， OFC 2026见证"互连爆发" AI算力行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2026年03月23日 ◼ 分析师：何鹏程 ◼ SAC编号：S1050525070002 投 资 要 点 英伟达GTC 2026正式开幕，从芯片供应商转型全栈AI基础设施平台 当地时间3月16日，英伟达GTC 2026正式开幕。面对市场高度关注的算力需求天花板与业绩持续性问题，黄仁勋 预期Blackwell与Rubin的AI芯片，到2027年的需求将达到至少1万亿美元，这较去年的预测已经翻倍。在硬件系 统层面，英伟达介绍了其有史以来最复杂的AI计算系统Vera Rubin，同时官宣七款新芯片现已全面投产。其中包 括:NVIDIA Vera CPU、NVIDIA Rubin GPU、NVIDIA NVLink 6交换机、NVIDIA ConnectX® -9 SuperNIC、 NVIDIA BlueField® -4 DPU和NVIDIA Spectrum -6以太网交换机，以及新纳入的 NVIDIA Groq 3 LPU。除了硬 件壁垒，黄仁勋将 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - Nvidia's GTC conference highlighted significant advancements, including the introduction of the new Rubin cabinet architecture, which is expected to drive demand for CPUs, storage (SRAM, NAND, DRAM), copper cables, CPO, and PCBs [4]. - The demand for computing power is projected to exceed $1 trillion in cumulative revenue for data centers from 2025 to 2027, driven by the explosion of inference demand [4]. - The report emphasizes the increasing certainty in the global computing power supply chain, bolstered by clear revenue guidance from leading overseas computing companies for the next two years [4]. Market Weekly Review - The TMT sector's performance from March 16 to March 20 showed varied results: - Communication sector increased by 2.10% - Electronics decreased by 2.84% - Media dropped by 3.78% - Computers fell by 4.74% [4]. - Top-performing sub-industries included: - Communication network equipment and devices (+7.38%) - Discrete devices (+5.17%) - Communication application value-added services (+1.06%) [4]. - Notable individual stock performances included: - Electronics: Shenhua A (+61.01%), Yuanjie Technology (+26.80%), Guokewi (+21.34%) - Computers: Langke Technology (+37.05%), Tongyou Technology (+26.43%), Tongniu Information (+25.23%) - Media: Tiandi Online (+15.90%), Guiguang Network (+14.51%), Publishing Media (+8.67%) - Communication: Xinyi Sheng (+21.07%), Zhongji Xuchuang (+12.91%), Dingtong Technology (+12.70%) [4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Nvidia's GTC 2026 conference introduced the next-generation Feynman chip architecture, focusing on AI inference scenarios and expected to launch in 2028 [20]. - Alibaba's CEO announced that the company's AI strategy aims for annual revenue exceeding $100 billion within five years, driven by the MaaS platform [17]. - Tencent is set to launch the upgraded HY3.0 model in April, enhancing its AI capabilities significantly [17]. - The report notes that the demand for AI-related chips and components is expected to continue growing, with a projected 24.8% increase in the global wafer foundry industry value in 2026 [25]. - The AI token consumption in China has surged to 180 trillion daily, indicating a rapid growth in AI model development and deployment [25].