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全球科技行业 - 人工智能价值链:GPU 真的能运行 6 年吗-Global Technology-AI Value Chain Can you really run a GPU for 6 years
2025-11-18 09:41
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **GPU (Graphics Processing Unit)** market, particularly in the context of **AI (Artificial Intelligence)** applications and data center operations [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GPU Lifespan and Depreciation**: - GPUs can profitably operate for approximately **6 years**, and the depreciation accounting used by major hyperscalars is deemed reasonable [3][11]. - Cash costs for operating GPUs are significantly lower than market rental prices, leading to high contribution margins for older GPUs [3][11]. - Older models, such as the **A100**, can still yield comfortable margins even after **5 years** of use, suggesting a **5-6 year depreciation lifespan** is justifiable [3][11]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: - There is a concern that if compute demand softens, older GPUs may be decommissioned despite being functional, but this would be a broader issue beyond just depreciation accounting [3][11]. - Data center operators often face "burn-in" issues, where older configurations may not be optimal for newer hardware, leading to operational inefficiencies [3][13]. 3. **Contractual Implications**: - Long-term contracts can shift the economic burden of GPU depreciation to end-users, as seen in examples like **OpenAI** signing a **5-year contract** for **Coreweave H100 capacity** [4][15]. - This indicates that even if GPUs depreciate faster than expected, the costs may be absorbed by customers through higher prices [4][15]. 4. **Pricing Trends**: - Unlike memory and storage, accelerated compute does not behave as a commodity; older GPUs often command higher prices than expected based on performance metrics [5][16]. - This suggests that legacy workloads are still prevalent, and cloud vendors may charge a premium for these services [5][16]. 5. **Investment Implications**: - **NVIDIA (NVDA)** is rated **Outperform** with a target price of **$225**, highlighting the significant datacenter opportunity [8]. - **AMD** is rated **Market-Perform** with a target price of **$200**, driven by high AI expectations and potential growth from new deals [8]. - **Broadcom (AVGO)** is also rated **Outperform** with a target price of **$400**, supported by strong margins and cash flow [8]. - Companies pivoting into AI datacenter assets, such as **Iren**, **Riot**, **Corz**, and **Clsk**, are noted for their re-rating potential [9]. Additional Important Observations - The depreciation of GPUs may not follow a linear model, as they tend to lose more value in the first year but retain value better afterward [3][13]. - The overwhelming demand for compute resources means that even older, less efficient hardware remains in use, countering concerns about the need for immediate replacements [6][17]. - The report emphasizes that the assumptions regarding GPU lifespans and depreciation are more favorable than some market participants fear [6][17]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a robust market for GPUs in AI applications, with significant implications for investment strategies in related companies. The dynamics of depreciation, contractual obligations, and market pricing trends are critical for understanding the future landscape of the GPU industry.
Global stocks sell-off as AI valuation concerns persist ahead of Nvidia earnings
CNBC· 2025-11-18 09:39
Market Overview - Global equities experienced a significant decline due to concerns over inflated valuations and an uncertain macro environment, particularly ahead of Nvidia's earnings report [1][2] - The pan-European Stoxx 600 index opened lower, with mining and banking sectors leading the losses, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index fell by 1.4% [1][2] U.S. Market Performance - The three major U.S. indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, closed in the red, reflecting a broader market downturn [2] - Asia-Pacific markets also saw declines, particularly in Japan and South Korea [2] Investor Sentiment - Market analysts suggest that the recent sell-off is a natural profit-taking phase following a strong market performance since April, with potential declines of about 5% from recent highs [2][4] - There is a prevailing skepticism in the market regarding the funding of mega-deals announced over the summer, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5] Earnings and AI Sector - Nvidia's upcoming third-quarter earnings are highly anticipated, as the company is viewed as a key indicator for the AI industry, with many major players relying on its GPUs [3] - The earnings season has shown that major hyperscalers are still generating substantial revenue, with investors closely monitoring Meta as a barometer for future AI applications [4] Macro Environment and Risks - There is a noted element of de-risking among investors due to uncertainties surrounding a previously expected Federal Reserve rate cut, which may now be postponed [6] - Upcoming decisions from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding tariffs could further complicate the macroeconomic landscape [7][8] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency sector is facing pressures from macro-driven sell-offs and forced liquidations, with Bitcoin and Ether experiencing significant declines of approximately 25% and 35% from their recent highs, respectively [9][10] Infrastructure Challenges - A critical issue facing the AI revolution and other sectors is access to electricity, which is essential for powering data centers, potentially slowing down growth in these areas [10][11]
马斯克回应特斯拉股票英伟达时刻
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 09:32
来源:@福布斯中文网微博 #马斯克谈特斯拉股票#【 #马斯克回应特斯拉股票英伟达时刻#】11 月 18 日消息,特斯拉 CEO 埃隆・ 马斯克今天在 X 平台发文,解释特斯拉股票何时能迎来"英伟达时刻"。一名投资者首先在今天凌晨发 帖询问"特斯拉股票何时会迎来英伟达那样的'高光时刻'",马斯克则亲自回复道:"当无人监管的自动驾 驶技术大规模普及时,特斯拉的估值将发生重大变化;而当 Optimus'擎天柱'人形机器人实现量产时, 其估值变化会更为显著"。(IT之家) ...
清仓英伟达?科技大佬新信号?
格隆汇APP· 2025-11-18 09:31
| 2502 | | | | 2503 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票代码 持股数量(百万股) 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 持仓市值(百万美元) | | 股票名称 | 持股数量(百万股) | 持仓市值(百万美元) 特股变动 | | | TSLA TSLA | 特斯拉 | 0.27 | 86.60 | | 特斯拉 | 0.07 | 28.91 | -76% | | NVDA MSFT | 英伟达 | 0.54 | 84.96 | | 微软 | 0.05 | 25.38 | 新建仓 | | VST | Vistra Energy | 0.21 | 40.46 com | AARL . go 苹果 ta | | .com 0.08 | 20.16 | 新建仓 | | 清仓 NVDA、VST | | | | | | | | | | 和至25年9日30日,整体结合却填为744M (上季度212M, gog-64 9%) | | | | | | | | | 11月初,美股三季度13F持仓报告一出,投资圈直接炸 ...
丢了英伟达的订单?胜宏科技回应:客户订单暂无大变动
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-18 09:20
记者同时以投资者身份致电传闻涉及的另一方兴森科技,接线工作人员表示,所有信息应以官方公告为 准,不会透露具体客户合作细节,公司会在必要时进行澄清。截至发稿,记者未在深交所信息披露平台 查询到,兴森科技有发布与英伟达订单相关的公告。查看原文:丢了英伟达的订单?胜宏科技回应:客 户订单暂无大变动刚刚 南方财经11月18日电,21财经《辟谣财知道》注意到,市场传出一篇彭博的文章称:英伟达 (NVDA.US)已与兴森科技(002436.SZ)达成合作,将此前由胜宏科技(300476.SZ)独家供应的 20%高阶高密度互连板(HDI)订单交由其承接。对此,21财经《辟谣财知道》以投资者身份致电胜宏科 技,接线工作人员表示,公司留意到相关谣言后,与彭博取得联系,其反馈称未发过相关新闻。公司在 彭博相关网站上亦未查询到有上述传闻信息,因此判定上述传闻不实。 对于市场最为关心的订单情况,上述接线工作人员表示,尽管出于商业保密原则无法披露具体客户信 息,但公司当前整体经营态势良好,订单情况保持乐观,核心客户订单未发生较大变动。 ...
3 Top Stocks to Buy in 2026
The Motley Fool· 2025-11-18 09:05
These three stocks look well-positioned to be winners next year.With 2025 beginning to wind down, it's time for investors to start looking toward what could be the best stocks to buy for next year. Here are three stocks that have real potential to outperform in 2026 and beyond.NvidiaWhere Nvidia (NVDA 1.91%) goes, the market is likely to follow. The maker of graphics processing units (GPUs) has grown to become the largest company in the world and is the poster child of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. ...
【环球财经】“AI泡沫”担忧加剧 多家对冲基金减持英伟达
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 08:42
新华财经上海11月18日电(葛佳明)11月17日,受科技股集体下挫影响,美股大幅震荡,标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均失守50日均线,道指则经历了 自4月以来的最差三日表现。18日全球市场风险情绪恶化,截至发稿,MSCI亚太指数下跌2%至221.28点,韩国首尔综合指数跌超3%。纳斯达克100指数期货 跌幅扩大至1%,道指期货跌0.5%,标普500指数期货跌0.7%。 | स्त्रेष 多日 ▼ | Tick图 | 日线 | 周线 | 月线 | 年线 | 更多▼ | 多周期 | 前复权 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 日线 标普500 ∨ MA5:6768.31↓ MA10:6769.09↓ MA20:6791.35↓ MA30:6752.71↓ MA50:6707.71↑ MA120:6443.85↑ | | | | | | 6177.97 √ DIF:13.33 ↓ DEA:32.39 ↓ MACD:-38.13 ↓ | | | | | | | | | 市场风险情绪恶化背后,关于"科技股已存在泡 ...
European stocks slump as global sell-off gathers pace
Youtube· 2025-11-18 08:42
Market Overview - European stocks are sharply lower amid a global sell-off, with investors anticipating economic data from the U.S. following the end of the government shutdown [1] - Major tech companies are facing renewed selling pressure due to concerns over inflated AI valuations, while Bitcoin has lost all its gains for the year, indicating a potential deeper downturn [1][2] - The European Commission has upgraded its growth forecast for 2025 but cautions that government deficits are expected to rise, potentially impacting investor confidence, particularly in the tech sector [1] Technology Sector - The market is experiencing a significant shift from aggressive buying to intense selling, particularly in tech stocks, with Nvidia's upcoming earnings report being closely watched [1] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has seen a decline of approximately 2.5%, while Nvidia remains up a couple of percent over the past month, indicating a mixed sentiment in the tech sector [1] - Concerns about overvaluation in the AI sector are prevalent, with references to the dotcom boom highlighting potential irrationality in current market behavior [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has entered a deep bear market, down nearly 30%, with significant leverage issues exacerbating the situation [1][2] - The cryptocurrency market is characterized by a high number of cryptocurrencies, exceeding 18,000, which adds complexity to market dynamics [2] - Institutional support and regulatory backing have not shielded Bitcoin from market volatility, raising questions about its role as a diversifier from fiat currencies [1][2] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Federal Reserve is experiencing conflicting views among officials regarding potential rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate cuts while others suggest a more cautious approach [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring economic indicators to gauge the likelihood of future rate cuts, with expectations that the Fed may pause in the first half of the next year [2][3] - The Supreme Court's upcoming decisions on tariffs could introduce additional volatility in the markets, particularly affecting risk assets [3][4] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market correction may be a natural profit-taking phase rather than a major catalyst for a downturn [2] - Predictions indicate that U.S. equities are overvalued, with expectations of another correction next year, while emerging markets like India and Brazil may present better investment opportunities [3] - The corporate bond market is adjusting to increased supply, with spreads needing to widen slightly to attract institutional investment [3]
Asian Shares Retreat Before Nvidia Earnings, Key US Data
RTTNews· 2025-11-18 08:42
Asian stocks tumbled on Tuesday as risk aversion intensified ahead of upcoming Nvidia earnings and a slew of U.S. economic data, including the delayed jobs report, which will be released almost seven weeks behind schedule due to the government shutdown. The dollar strengthened in the wake of increased uncertainty surrounding interest rates and tech valuations. Oil prices fell after loadings resumed at a key Russian port.Gold fell about 1 percent, extending losses for a fourth straight session, pressured by ...
黑色星期二!全球暴跌,原因找到了!
天天基金网· 2025-11-18 08:35
牛市来了还没上车?上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包,优选基金10元起投!限 量发放!先到先得! 今天的市场,全球暴跌,遭遇了黑色星期二。 一起看看发生了什么事情。 黑色星期二 11月18日,全球股市暴跌, 日经225指数收跌3.22%,创自四月以来最大单日跌幅,收于 49000点下方。韩国KOSPI指数收跌3.32%,风险情绪恶化,芯片股领跌市场。 | く 気 | 亚太指数 () | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅↑ | 涨跌 | | 韩国 KOSPI200 | 556.45 | -3.50% | -20.20 | | KOSPI200 | | | | | 韓国 KOSPI | 3953.62 | -3.32% | -135.63 | | KS11 | | | | | 日经 225 | 48702.98 | -3.22% | -1620.93 | | N225 | | | | | 台湾加权 | 26756.12 | -2.52% | -691.19 | | TWII | | | | | 恒生科技指数 | 5616.21 | -2.4 ...