证券研究报告 | 2025年11月09日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 价格分化回调，业绩稳步上修 价格走势：整体回撤，价值风格刚性较强 本周，标普 500 跌 1.6%，纳斯达克跌 3.0%。 风格方面：大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值-0.1%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值 -0.7%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长-2.9%）≈大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长 -2.9%）。 12 个行业上涨，11 个行业下跌，1 个基本持平。上涨的主要有：保险（+2.8%）、 食品饮料与烟草（+1.6%）、能源（+1.6%）、制药生物科技和生命科学（+1.6%）、 医疗保健设备与服务（+1.5%）；下跌的主要有：半导体产品与设备（-5.6%）、 汽车与汽车零部件（-5.1%）、软件与服务（-4.3%）、耐用消费品与服装 （-3.0%）、媒体与娱乐（-1.8%）。 资金流向：整体大幅加速流出 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-164.1（亿美元， 下同），上周为-40.5，近 4 周为-46.8，近 13 周为+491.7。 10 个行业资金流入，14 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：零售业（ ...

Core Insights - TSMC's 3nm process has officially entered a golden mass production phase, with third-quarter revenue contribution rising to 23%, surpassing the 5nm process and becoming a key driver for overall operations [2] - The demand for AI and cloud applications is driving TSMC's 3nm production lines to operate at full capacity, with utilization rates at the Tainan Fab18 facility nearing maximum [2] - NVIDIA is a major contributor, increasing its monthly wafer orders to 35,000, which is straining the advanced process capacity [2] Group 1 - TSMC's monthly 3nm production capacity has rapidly increased from 100,000 wafers at the end of last year to 100,000-110,000 wafers, with projections to reach 160,000 wafers by 2025, representing a nearly 50% increase [2] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are competing for 3nm capacity, with AWS and Google planning to utilize TSMC's 3nm process for their AI chips [2] - The semiconductor industry anticipates challenges in 3nm wafer supply next year, as CSPs like Google seek to secure more wafer allocations [3] Group 2 - TSMC's 3nm process is expected to account for over 30% of its revenue next year, driven primarily by AI and high-performance computing (HPC) [3] - TSMC plans to increase prices for advanced process technology by 3-5% over the next four years, reflecting strong demand for AI chips and indicating a seller's market for the most advanced wafer foundry services [3] - The introduction of improved versions of the 3nm process, such as N3E and N3P, aims to optimize performance, power consumption, and yield [3]

1.【京东狼族机器人全球智能工厂项目签约落地】近日，京东狼族机器人全球智能工厂项目正式落地 无锡。无锡市委书记杜小刚与京东集团高级副总裁贾晓波会谈并见证项目签约。该项目将建设京东全 球首个智能物流机器人超级工厂，实现从核心零部件生产到机器人本体组装、再到软件系统集成的全 流程智能化，建成后将成为京东规模最大、自动化程度最高的机器人生产基地之一。（第一财经） 2.【世界首台650摄氏度高效超超临界燃煤发电机组在华能玉环电厂开工建设】中国华能11月8日宣 布，世界首台650摄氏度高效超超临界燃煤发电机组——华能玉环电厂四期项目完成首方混凝土浇 筑，进入全面建设阶段。华能玉环电厂四期项目拟建设1台100万千瓦级650摄氏度高效超超临界一次 再热燃煤发电机组，机组设计主汽压力达到35兆帕，主蒸汽和再热蒸汽温度均达到650摄氏度，是目 前世界范围内燃煤机组最高参数，将大幅提高发电效率。与现有机组相比，650摄氏度等级高效超超 临界燃煤机组可提升发电效率约4个百分点，度电煤耗可降低约10%，每年可减少二氧化碳排放量约 45万吨。（环球时报） 3. 【Meta确认未来三年在美投资6000亿美元，包括人工智能数据中心建设】 ...

Core Insights - The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, is actively seeking increased chip supply from TSMC to meet the strong demand driven by the AI boom, highlighting TSMC's critical role in the AI supply chain [1][2] - Huang's visit to Taiwan and his request for more wafer supply from TSMC indicate Nvidia's confidence in the future demand for AI products [1][2] - Nvidia's growth is closely tied to TSMC's production capacity, with Huang stating, "Without TSMC, there is no Nvidia" [1][3] Supply Chain Challenges - Nvidia's primary goal during Huang's visit to Taiwan was to secure more wafers for its Blackwell series chips, as demand for Nvidia's products is currently immense [2] - TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities are in high demand globally, with CEO C.C. Wei noting that the company's capacity remains "very tight" [2] - Nvidia aims to become a major customer for TSMC's 3nm process, potentially accounting for about 30% of TSMC's total output [2] Strategic Dependency - Huang's statement about the dependency on TSMC reflects the evolution of Nvidia's strategy, as the company is now competing for the latest chip technologies [3] - This marks Huang's fourth visit to Taiwan this year, indicating a deepening relationship between Nvidia and TSMC [3] - Strengthening ties with TSMC is crucial for Nvidia to maintain its market dominance amid fierce competition in the AI sector [3]

那问题来了，这事跟咱们A股中长线投资有啥关系？帮主跟大伙说句实在的，A股投资别光看短期涨跌，得看背后的产业逻辑。黄仁勋抢芯片，本质是AI产 业链的需求在持续爆发，而芯片制造、存储这些环节是绕不开的核心。所以咱们中长线布局，不用去跟风追那些短期炒作的票，而是要盯紧真正有技术壁 垒、业绩能跟得上产业增长的公司。比如芯片制造领域的龙头，还有存储芯片相关的企业，以及那些为AI硬件做配套的产业链公司。这些板块跟着产业趋 势走，长期来看，估值和业绩都有支撑。当然了，中长线投资不是拿着不动，得跟着行业动态调整，但核心逻辑不变——跟着产业增长的节奏走，比瞎猜短 期涨跌靠谱多了。 你知道不，黄仁勋这次去台湾，全程不到24小时，跟赶场似的。先回台南老家，直奔台积电的晶圆十八厂，那可是生产3nm芯片的核心厂区，英伟达最先进 的Blackwell芯片就靠这地儿造。忙完正事，还跟台积电的老大魏哲家凑一块儿吃牛肉火锅，吃完还不忘打包当地的水果冰沙，这大佬也是挺接地气。更有 意思的是，他居然去了台积电的员工运动会，这活动以前都是内部人参加，外部客户高管去的都少见，他不光去了，还上台演讲，一口中文喊"没有台积 电，就没有今日的英伟达"，这话 ...

9 星期日 2025年11月 文章来源：网络 编辑-聿行视界 美联储的刺激政策正从"救市"变为"助泡"，AI热潮让资本更趋疯狂。达里奥警告，这是一场"泡沫刺激疗法"——短期繁花似 锦，长期隐患丛生。政策、科技与金融之间的相爱相杀，不知将把世界引向何方。。。 泡沫刺激疗法 达里奥认为，美联储当前的操作极具激进性。他指出，结束缩表（QT）并可能重启购债，实际上是"在泡沫中注入刺 激"（stimulus into a bubble），而非传统的"刺激陷入衰退的经济"（stimulus into a depression）。当前环境与历史QE时期大相 径庭： 在这种背景下的QE，更像是为政府债务融资、货币化国债，而非单纯向市场注入流动性。达里奥指出："如果资产负债表显 著扩张、利率下调，而财政赤字依然庞大，我们就看到美联储与财政部典型的货币与财政互动，用于政府债务货币化。" 他警告称，这种政策组合——财政赤字扩张、货币宽松、监管放松、AI繁荣——正在形成"超级宽松"局面，短期或迎来1999 年互联网泡沫破裂前夕或2010-2011年QE时期的"流动性狂欢（liquidity melt-up）"，但长期风险巨大。 循环 ...

面对AI热潮带来的持续强劲需求，全球市值最高的公司英伟达正全力确保其芯片供应。其首席执行官 黄仁勋亲赴中国台湾，向关键合作伙伴台积电寻求更多产能，凸显了这家台湾芯片制造商在当前AI供 应链中的核心地位。 据彭博社报道，11月8日，黄仁勋现身台湾新竹台积电年度运动会，并对记者表示，英伟达的业务"非常 强劲，并且月复一月地变得更强"。他透露，此次来台已向台积电请求提供更多芯片供应。 与此同时，英伟达的竞争对手，包括高通在内，也在努力挑战其在AI加速器领域的领导地位，并同样 在争夺台积电有限的先进产能。这使得黄仁勋巩固与台积电关系的举动，显得尤为重要和紧迫。 "没有台积电，就没有英伟达"的战略依存 黄仁勋"没有台积电，就没有英伟达"的表述，并非夸张的客套。深入分析其供应链可以发现，台积电无 论是在核心的半导体制造，还是在先进的CoWoS封装服务方面，都处于英伟达AI业务的中心。 这一论断也反映了英伟达战略的演变。过去，英伟达曾被视为尖端芯片技术的"晚期采用者"，但如今， 该公司正积极竞逐如A16等最先进的芯片技术，这意味着其对台积电的依赖程度只会进一步加深。 今年以来，这已是黄仁勋第四次访问台湾。他与台积电高管的频 ...

Core Viewpoint - The close relationship between NVIDIA and TSMC is highlighted through CEO Jensen Huang's frequent visits, indicating strong collaboration in chip production and development [1][6]. Group 1: Company Visits and Relationships - Jensen Huang visited TSMC for the third time in three months, emphasizing the strong ties between the two companies [1]. - Huang attended TSMC's annual sports meeting, a rare event for external executives, where he expressed gratitude towards TSMC employees for their role in building NVIDIA [3][5]. Group 2: Chip Demand and Production - Huang noted that NVIDIA's latest Blackwell chips are experiencing "very strong demand," leading to increased wafer requirements from TSMC [6]. - Huang mentioned that NVIDIA manufactures GPUs, CPUs, and networking devices, which are all related to the Blackwell chips [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply Chain - TSMC's CEO, C.C. Wei, indicated that Huang is seeking more chips, but specific quantities remain confidential [8]. - Huang acknowledged the ongoing strong growth in the industry, which is causing various shortages, including memory chips [8]. - Huang stated that NVIDIA has received advanced chip samples from leading memory manufacturers SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, who are expanding production to support NVIDIA [8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Huang emphasized that NVIDIA's business model is distinct from companies like Google and Amazon, asserting that the versatility of NVIDIA's GPU architecture surpasses that of ASIC chips [9]. - The GPU architecture is applicable not only in AI computations but also in scientific, physical, and quantum fields, which is a core competitive advantage for NVIDIA [9].

Core Insights - NVIDIA's business is experiencing strong growth, with a month-over-month improvement in performance [1][2] - The company emphasizes the critical role of AI technology in shaping industries and nations, highlighting its importance in the current era [1] - Taiwan's position in global semiconductor manufacturing remains extremely important, according to NVIDIA's CEO [1][2] Group 1: Business Performance - NVIDIA's operations are characterized as "strong business, improving month by month" [2] - The demand for Blackwell is robust, with NVIDIA expanding its product offerings beyond GPUs to include CPUs, networking chips, and switches [1] - The next generation of products, Rubin, has begun production, with strong support from TSMC [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Partnerships - NVIDIA acknowledges the supply chain challenges during rapid growth but appreciates the capacity expansions from major memory suppliers like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron [2] - TSMC is recognized for its excellent performance in wafer supply, contributing positively to NVIDIA's supply chain [2] - NVIDIA has access to advanced chip samples from various suppliers, indicating a strong position in the market [2] Group 3: Technological Impact and Policy - The CEO collaborates with governments worldwide to help leaders understand technological evolution for better policy-making [2] - There is a call for all sectors to embrace AI and leverage the technological shift occurring in the current generation [2]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：大树的格局） 今天聊聊近一个世纪以来的美国股市大泡沫。 先说上个世纪二十年代末那场"大萧条"，那真是教科书级别的泡沫破裂。那时候美国靠一战发了财，街 上跑的都是新车，摩天大楼一栋接一栋立起来，股市更是疯了一样往上涨，从1921年到1929年，道指愣 是涨了六倍多。 时间跳到2000年，互联网泡沫又来了。那会儿只要公司名字带".com"，管它赚不赚钱，股价就能上天。 纳斯达克指数五年涨四倍，市盈率冲到惊人的200倍。结果美联储连续加息六次，纳斯达克从5048点一 路狂泻78%，到2002年只剩1114点。像Pets.com这种公司，上市268天就清算关门，成了泡沫的标志。不 过大浪淘沙，亚马逊当时从113美元跌到5.5美元，但活了下来还长成了巨头。 最近这场2008年次贷危机，其实是房地产泡沫。银行拼命给没工作没收入的人发贷款，华尔街再把贷款 打包成复杂衍生品卖全球。等到美联储加息，违约潮一来，雷曼兄弟这家158年老店轰然倒塌，负债 6130亿美元，直接引爆全球金融海啸。但也有像约翰·保尔森这样的狠人，早看出苗头，做空次级贷大 赚150亿美元。 说到眼下这波AI热潮，我觉着也有点大泡沫的 ...