2026年1月 20 星期二 信息来源：网络 编辑-楓華 利率预期：强劲的就业市场直接锁定了利率走向。目前市场几乎确信美联储将在 1 月 28 日维持利率在 3.50%-3.75% 不变。 2026 年伊始，美股的叙事轨迹发生了微妙而坚决的转向。 一方面，创纪录的低失业金人数让美联储 1 月"按兵不动"的概率飙升至 95%；另一方面，台积 电的一席话和华尔街投行的亮眼财报，让市场从对 AI 泡沫的忧虑中惊醒。 美元走势：受此推动，美元指数走强。与之相对的是金价从 4630 美元高位回落，油价因地缘局势缓和与美元强势的双重挤压，跌幅超 4.8%。 这意味着，"放水驱动"的逻辑已成过去式，2026 年是实打实的"增长驱动"年。 牛市不再是虚无缥缈的预期，而是一场基于基本面的"多点开花"。 二、 叙事重心：AI 到底是不是泡沫？台积电给出答案 一、 宏观定调：强就业消解降息幻想 最新的数据给了市场一个"下马威"：截至 1 月 10 日当周，美国初请失业金人数降至 19.8 万，创下两年来第二低水平。 当华尔街还在纠结 AI 投资是否过热时，上游巨头台积电（TSM）用 560 亿美元的资本开支计划投下了信任票。 结论 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's market capitalization has increased from approximately $345 billion in November 2022 to $4.5 trillion, making it the most valuable company globally [1] - The company is positioned for significant growth, with projections indicating it could reach a market cap between $7 trillion and $9 trillion by the end of 2026 [14] Group 1: Market Position and Growth Potential - Nvidia's backlog is reported to be around $500 billion, with the order backlog growing exponentially due to new deals, including a significant agreement with Anthropic [2][3] - Major partnerships, such as a $38 billion deal with OpenAI and a $20 billion licensing agreement with Groq, are expected to enhance Nvidia's revenue streams [4] - The company is projected to capture over 60% of big tech's infrastructure spending in AI, with potential data center revenue reaching between $320 billion and $330 billion by 2026 [6][7] Group 2: Valuation and Financial Metrics - Nvidia's current market cap is valued at approximately 27 times its trailing-12-month data center sales, which generated $167 billion over the past year [11][12] - If Nvidia doubles its data center sales while maintaining its valuation profile, it could be valued at nearly $9 trillion, or around $7 trillion if the market cap to sales ratio compresses [12] - The company's price-to-sales ratios have compressed over the past year, suggesting a shift in market perception towards a more mature business model [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is shifting from reliance on NVIDIA's chips to self-developed solutions, as companies like Xiaopeng and NIO are moving towards their own chip development to reduce costs and enhance performance [2][5][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Xiaopeng has released four new models equipped with its self-developed Turing driving chip, marking a complete departure from NVIDIA's chips [2]. - NIO is transitioning to its self-developed Shenqi chip, which is expected to significantly reduce costs compared to purchasing NVIDIA chips [2][8]. - NVIDIA's market share in China's high-end driving chip sector is projected to decline from 39% in 2024 to 25% in 2025, indicating a significant shift in the competitive landscape [2][9]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - In 2024, NVIDIA's Orin-X chip held a 39.8% market share with 2.1 million units, but competitors like Horizon are gaining ground with lower-cost alternatives [5][6]. - Horizon's J5 chip has secured contracts with over nine automakers, including major brands like BYD and SAIC, highlighting the increasing competition in the market [6][9]. - By 2025, NVIDIA's partnerships with major clients like NIO and Xiaopeng have diminished, indicating a loss of influence in the market [6][8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, NVIDIA reported $147.8 billion in total revenue, with only $1.7 billion (approximately 1%) coming from automotive business, underscoring the limited impact of automotive sales on overall performance [14][16]. - The automotive segment's revenue is significantly overshadowed by NVIDIA's data center business, which accounts for nearly 90% of its income [14][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - NVIDIA is attempting to pivot from being a chip supplier to a comprehensive smart driving solution provider, but this transition faces challenges as competitors strengthen their positions [20]. - The launch of NVIDIA's open-source VLA model, aimed at assisting automakers lacking full-stack development capabilities, reflects its strategy to maintain relevance in the evolving market [20][21]. - However, the practical utility of the VLA model has been questioned, indicating potential hurdles in its adoption and effectiveness [21].

股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 中信证券认为太空算力的能源供给将高度依赖光伏技术。钙钛矿作为兼具高效率和低成本的下一代光伏 技术，有望成为重要的太空能源解决方案。2025年以来，钙钛矿产业化进展加速，效率、稳定性纷纷取 得突破，行业内多条GW级产线相继投产，建议关注钙钛矿产业投资机会。 据报道，太空AI中心是以AI算力太空部署为特征的新一代AI基础设施，旨在为AI发展突破能源、环 境、空间瓶颈。目前，全球科技力量争相布局太空AI中心建设，纷纷出台技术发展和建设规划，带动 相关技术和应用进入高速发展期。 太空算力正从概念验证走向可运行系统。海外方面，英伟达已完成H100GPU在轨测试，Space X计划4 年内每年完成部署100GW太空数据中心，谷歌拟2027年发射TPU原型卫星，Starcloud推进40MW数据中 心落地。中国数据中心"上天"进展顺利，已成功建起全球首个商业化AI卫星网络。2025年5月，中国国 星宇航与之江实验室联合发射了首批12颗、搭载AI芯片和模型的智能计算卫星，总算力达5 POPS，标 志着太空算力首次进入实际应用阶段。 ...

The chipmaker rallied during the second half of 2025, but can it sustain its momentum in 2026?When it comes to the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, no company is watched as closely as Nvidia (NVDA 0.44%). Over the last three years, the company's graphics processing units (GPUs) and its CUDA computing platform have become central pillars supporting generative AI development.Nvidia has become so influential in the AI realm that its quarterly earnings reports have essentially turned into a yardstick for ...

VANCOUVER, BC, Jan. 19, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Bitzero Holdings Inc., (CSE: BITZ) (OTC PINK: BTZRF) (FSE: 000) ("Bitzero" or the "Company"), a provider of sustainable blockchain and high-performance compute (HPC) data center infrastructure, today announced the acquisition of eight NVIDIA Blackwell B300 servers, totaling 64 GPUs, to be deployed at its Namsskogan, Norway facility in partnership with Hydra Host. The deployment, expected to be completed in Q1 2026, represents Bitzero's first direct investment in ...

Artificial intelligence is set to have another huge year.2026 is shaping up to be another fantastic year for the stock market, especially with the amount of artificial intelligence (AI) spending going on. I think there are several stocks bound to rocket higher over the year, and if you don't buy them now, you're going to regret it down the road.The five stocks on my shopping list for 2026 are Nvidia (NVDA 0.29%), Broadcom (AVGO +2.63%), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +1.79%), Amazon (AMZN +0.49%), and Alphabet ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution and significance of "pick-and-shovel" markets, highlighting how companies like Intel, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and Amazon have adapted to changing technological landscapes and consumer demands [1][4][25]. Group 1: Historical Context - The concept of pick-and-shovel markets has existed for centuries, with Samuel Brennan being an early example of exploiting such a market during the gold rush [2][3]. - Brennan's strategy involved purchasing mining equipment and reselling it at high markups, leading to his success as the first West Coast millionaire [3]. Group 2: Modern Examples - Intel became a dominant player in the CPU market after being selected as the microprocessor supplier for IBM PCs, demonstrating the effectiveness of scale in pick-and-shovel businesses [4][5]. - Qualcomm and NVIDIA also exemplify this trend, with Qualcomm leading in digital communications chipsets and NVIDIA dominating the GPU market in data centers [5][6]. Group 3: Innovation and Scale - The success of these companies is attributed to a combination of foresight, skill, and strategic partnerships, which allowed them to leverage their scale for competitive advantage [6][7]. - All three companies utilize backward-compatible designs to guide buyers' upgrade paths, preventing rivals from gaining similar advantages [8]. Group 4: Amazon's Mechanical Turk - Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) emerged as a solution to product labeling challenges, allowing users to perform microtasks that machines could not handle effectively [12][15]. - Despite initial challenges, MTurk eventually demonstrated its scalability, particularly when used by researchers like Fei-Fei Li for large-scale image labeling [19][20]. Group 5: Economic Implications - The article emphasizes that while investments in innovation are beneficial for society, they can also lead to monopolistic behaviors, as seen in the historical context of pick-and-shovel markets [28][29]. - Companies in these markets share similar incentives to innovate, but the outcomes can vary, as illustrated by Amazon's experience with MTurk, which did not yield significant financial returns despite its impact [26][27].

Submitted by Tight SpreadsThe DOE has been flooding their sites with white-papers and latest Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap (FS&T Roadmap) are not just a scientific plan, but an industrial policy designed to transition fusion from the laboratory to the commercial market by the mid-2030s. The DOE has prioritized its actions to align with the aggressive “fast-track” development cycles of nuclear fission and fusion companies:Near-Term (Next 2-3 Years): Digitalization & Infrastructure PrepAI-Fusion Conve ...

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD stock) projects that if its ambitious data-center expansion targets materialize, shareholders could see massive upside through 2030. The claim has Wall Street divided between believers who see generational growth and skeptics who question whether the valuation already prices in much of that upside. Management's growth case: Can AMD sustain 60% data center CAGR? Copy link to section At its Financial Analyst Day in November 2025, AMD laid out a roadmap. The company expects ...