证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 18 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 李泽 SAC：S1350525030001 lize@huayuanstock.com 陈佳敏 SAC：S1350525110001 chenjiamin@huayuanstock.com ——汽车行业双周报（20260105-20250116） 投资要点： 投资分析意见：我们认为液冷行业节奏进展快、全年展望乐观，针对 Rubin 液冷环节核 心增量，建议关注：1）微通道：金田股份、博威合金、华光新材、大族激光、江顺科技、 南风股份、精研科技、宁波精达、英维克等；2）CDU：银轮股份、飞龙股份、宏盛股份、 同飞股份等；3）Manifold：敏实集团等。 风险提示：1）海外客户进展低于预期；2）技术迭代风险；3）行业竞争加剧等。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 Rubin 平台采用 100%全液冷方案，预计 26H2 陆续交付。当地时间 2026 年 1 月 5 日，英伟达在 CES 展会上发布 Rubin 平台，单机柜功耗将首次突破 200KW，使用 100% ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is set to initiate its 2026 dividend schedule with a quarterly payout of $0.01 per share, maintaining its long-standing quarterly dividend policy [1][2]. Dividend Data - The upcoming dividend payment is estimated at $0.01 per share, unchanged from the previous payout in December 2025 [2][4]. - The forward annual dividend stands at $0.04 per share, resulting in a forward yield of approximately 0.02% [2]. - The payout ratio is notably low at around 0.40%, indicating a strong focus on reinvestment and growth rather than income distribution [2][6]. Stock Data - As of January 16, 2026, Nvidia shares are trading at approximately $186.23, with a market capitalization of $4.55 trillion [2][3]. - The average price recovery time after the ex-dividend date is about 2.5 days, suggesting that the price effects related to dividends are typically short-lived [6]. Comparison with Industry - Nvidia's dividend yield is significantly lower than the technology sector average of approximately 1.37%, reinforcing its classification as a growth-focused stock rather than a dividend stock [7]. - The company's strategy aligns with market expectations, emphasizing heavy investments in artificial intelligence, data center expansion, and next-generation chip platforms as key drivers of shareholder value [7][8].

以下文章来源于BigBite思维随笔 ，作者BigBite BigBite思维随笔 . Big Bite Small Talk, 杂谈随笔，聊科技，AI，成长，理财，经验杂谈。Stay Hungry 作者 | BigBite 来源 | BigBite思维随笔 点击下方 卡片 ，关注" 自动驾驶之心 "公众号 戳我-> 领取 自动驾驶近30个 方向 学习 路线 >>自动驾驶前沿信息获取 → 自动驾驶之心知识星球 本文只做学术分享，如有侵权，联系删文 CES老黄身穿闪闪发光的黑色皮衣宣布Nvidia在自动驾驶领域重磅推出以Alpamayo为核心的研发生态体系，一时间投资圈热议。世界首富马老板近几年已经多次强调 其旗下Tesla的核心价值几乎全部来自于AI和机器人，而其自动驾驶系统FSD正是这个万亿美元科技巨头的王冠上钻石，而Nvidia此次推出Alpamayo被很多投资人认为 是自动驾驶的"安卓时刻"，潜在对其市值评估逻辑产生重大影响，NV公布Alpamayo当天TSLA美股价格就跌去了4%，但是究竟Alpamayo能否打破Tesla FSD的竞争壁 垒还是要从多方面进行深入思考。 算力为王 Nvidia这次公布 ...

2026：具身智能与机器人关键一年 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 18 日 [Table_Author] 科技巨头发力物理 AI，具身智能长期潜力不断提升。1）算力巨头发力物理 AI， 推出人形机器人等模型：CES2026 大会上，黄仁勋表示，在应用与落地层面，这 些能力被直接引入自动驾驶和机器人等物理 AI 场景。Alpamayo 驱动的自动驾驶 体系以及 GR00T 与 Jetson 的机器人生态，都在通过云厂商和企业级平台合作， 推动规模化部署。 黄仁勋在 CES 上表示，物理 AI 的"ChatGPT 时刻"快要来了，但面对的挑战也 很多，因此英伟达推出了开源的物理 AI 世界基础模型 Cosmos，已经用海量视 频、真实驾驶与机器人数据，以及 3D 模拟做过预训练。它能理解世界是怎么运 行的，可以把语言、图像、3D 和动作联系起来，实现的物理 AI 技能包括生成内 容、做推理、预测轨迹等，可以依据 3D 场景生成逼真的视频，根据驾驶数据生 成符合物理规律的运动，还能从模拟器、多摄像头画面或文字描述生成全景视频， 罕见场景也能还原出来。在人形机器人领域，英伟达发布了视觉语言动作 ...

Group 1 - The article expresses a generally bullish outlook on chipmakers, specifically highlighting ASML and NVDA as favorable investments [1][2] - The author holds stocks in ASML and NVDA but does not hold any ETFs [1] Group 2 - There is no specific financial data or performance metrics provided in the article [2]

Future Horizons 认为，全球半导体行业未来一年将面临高度不确定性，预计2026 年市场增长率 将在正负 12% 左右。该研究公司最新发布的市场报告指出，2025年22%的增长率过于集中，并不 代表整个行业的全面复苏。 Future Horizons 表示，如果人工智能基础设施需求疲软，智能手机和汽车等传统市场未能反弹， 半导体行业今年可能面临急剧下滑。 雪上加霜的是，关于芯片出货量何时恢复、平均售价能否继续上涨以及对传统节点晶圆厂（尤其是 在中国）的过度投资将如何影响市场等问题仍悬而未决。该研究公司将当前的AI热潮与2020-2021 年疫情引发的激增相比较，并警告称，正如那轮周期戛然而止一样，这一轮也可能如此。 全球最大的芯片制造商台积电本周发表了更为乐观的言论，称人工智能的繁荣是"真实的"，人工智 能驱动的需求"无论如何都将在未来很多年里持续下去"。 AI泡沫，可能在两年内破裂 许多互联网公司的倒闭导致电信公司在互联网基础设施方面出现产能过剩。作为最大的互联网基础 设施硬件供应商，思科的收入在1999年和2000年实现了超过50%的增长，但在2001年却下降了 23%。2001年，半导体市场 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia has reached a pivotal moment in AI development, positioning itself for future growth as the demand for AI chips increases [1][5][14] Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's stock has surged by 1,000% over the past three years, making it the largest company globally by market capitalization [3] - The company has a market cap of $4.5 trillion, with a current stock price of $186.51 [11] - Nvidia's revenue for Q3 fiscal 2026 was $57 billion, reflecting a 62% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue at $51.2 billion, up 66% [9] Group 2: AI Development and Demand - AI development is accelerating and becoming more affordable, which is expected to increase demand for Nvidia's chips [5][14] - The introduction of advanced AI models, such as OpenAI's o1, signifies a shift towards more complex reasoning capabilities, necessitating more powerful chips [6] - Nvidia has secured $500 billion in AI chip bookings through 2026, with $150 billion already fulfilled, indicating strong market demand [10][12] Group 3: Future Projections - Analyst estimates predict Nvidia will generate $213 billion in revenue for the 2026 fiscal year and $321 billion for 2027, representing approximately a 50% growth [13] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be $4.69 for the current year and $7.60 in 2027, showcasing robust financial performance [13] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing sophistication of AI programs, while also capitalizing on the demand for older chip models as their prices decline [8][14]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry warns of an impending AI bubble burst, drawing parallels to past market failures and expressing concerns over the sustainability of current tech investments [1][2][6]. Group 1: Criticism of Tech Giants - Burry criticizes major tech companies like Microsoft and Alphabet for their heavy investments in AI infrastructure, suggesting these investments may soon become obsolete [2]. - He compares the current tech boom to a past department store rivalry, indicating that competitors may negate any advantages gained through costly upgrades [3]. Group 2: Predictions for the Tech Industry - Burry predicts a prolonged downturn in the tech industry, with potential stagnation or decline in employment levels [4]. - He highlights unexpected challenges in the AI sector, such as Google's struggles and Nvidia's continued dominance [4]. Group 3: Impact on Jobs and Expertise - Burry raises concerns about AI's impact on jobs, questioning the belief that trade careers are immune to AI disruption [5]. - He suggests that reliance on AI tools could lead to a decline in human expertise, particularly in fields like medicine [5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Current Stance - Burry's current warnings are influenced by his regret for not voicing risks before the 2008 financial crisis, shaping his perspective on the AI bubble [7].

Core Insights - Nvidia is positioned to benefit from strong secular tailwinds, innovation, and a leading market position, potentially driving its market cap to $50 trillion in the next decade [4][12] Company Performance - Nvidia reported record revenue of $57 billion for fiscal Q3 2026, a 62% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share (EPS) rising 67% to $1.30 [6] - The company forecasts Q4 revenue of $65 billion, representing an 84% growth [6] Market Position - Nvidia dominates the data center GPU market with a 92% share, benefiting from robust demand for AI technologies [8] - The data center market is expected to grow by 60% annually, driven by AI demand [7] Future Projections - If Nvidia maintains its profit margins and AI adoption continues, EPS could reach $135 and free cash flow could be $100 per share, potentially driving the stock price to $2,000 [7] - The current market cap of Nvidia is approximately $4.55 trillion [5] Investment Perspective - Nvidia is trading at 24 times next year's expected earnings, which is considered a compelling valuation given its growth potential [11] - Even if the $50 trillion market cap is not achieved, Nvidia is still expected to provide significant returns for shareholders [12]

Core Viewpoint - The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) experienced significant growth in 2022, driven by the AI boom and strong performances from key holdings like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, with the ETF finishing the year up 40% [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Overview - The SOXX's performance mirrored that of the Nasdaq Composite, with most holdings traded on the Nasdaq and significant contributions from Nvidia and Broadcom [3]. - The ETF started strong but faced a dip in March due to tariff concerns and economic weakening, rebounding after the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, and then surged as AI interest returned [4]. - The ETF's top three holdings are Micron, Nvidia, and AMD, each constituting over 7% of the fund, with Micron's stock tripling last year due to increased demand for high-bandwidth memory chips used in AI [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The SOXX has been a consistent outperformer, with a remarkable 1,160% increase over the last year, and is expected to continue this trend as semiconductor demand remains central to technology advancements [6]. - The AI sector is anticipated to have another strong year in 2026, supported by robust quarterly results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, indicating ongoing chip demand [7]. - As of January 15, the SOXX is already up 11.8% year-to-date, suggesting it is well-positioned to outperform the market again, barring any significant downturn in the AI boom [8].