Investment Opportunities - The market is currently at all-time highs, but there are still significant investment opportunities available [1] - Three stocks are highlighted as excellent buys for 2026: Nvidia, MercadoLibre, and The Trade Desk, each representing different market approaches [2] Nvidia - Nvidia is the world's largest company by market capitalization, primarily due to its leading graphics processing units (GPUs) that support artificial intelligence workloads [3] - The company has a market cap of $4.5 trillion, with a current stock price of $186.92 and a gross margin of 70.05% [4][5] - Analysts project a remarkable 50% revenue growth for Nvidia in fiscal year 2027, driven by increased AI spending and the launch of its new architecture, Rubin [6] MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre is often referred to as the "Amazon of Latin America," with a strong e-commerce platform and logistics network enabling rapid delivery [7] - The company has a market cap of $107 billion, with a current stock price of $2098.85 and a gross margin of 45.14% [8][9] - MercadoLibre has built a digital payment infrastructure from scratch, giving it a competitive edge in two significant growth areas, and the stock is currently down nearly 20% from its all-time high, presenting a buying opportunity [9][10] The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk operates an ad technology platform that connects ad buyers with optimal ad placements, excluding major platforms like Facebook and Google [11] - Despite facing challenges with its new AI-powered ad platform, The Trade Desk has retained 95% of its customer base and achieved 18% growth, although this is the lowest growth rate in its history [12][14] - The company is expected to grow at an above-average pace, with a forward earnings price of 18 times, compared to the S&P 500's 22.4 times, making it an attractive investment opportunity [14][15]

格隆汇1月16日｜针对外界质疑"英伟达此前提出的铜需求预期值存在错误"，英伟达已悄然将其一篇技 术论文中有关数据中心铜需求量数据进行了改正。据英伟达官网去年刊登的一份技术论文指出，一个容 量在一吉瓦的传统数据中心机架，需要高达50万吨铜母线，这引起外界对未来铜的供需形势大为担忧。 不过，近期有媒体指出，该论文的结论存在明显的计算错误，实际上一吉瓦数据中心仅需要200多吨 铜，差不多相当于50万磅，可能是该论文用错了单位。而英伟达目前已经修正了这一错误，将论文中的 50万吨修正为200吨，仅为原论文表述"50万吨"的0.04%。 这也意味着数据中心铜需求预期需要被大幅调低，此前外界一些关于数据中心将导致铜陷入严重短缺的 预期过于激进。不过，新能源、人工智能以及建筑领域对铜的需求回升仍可能将继续支持铜市场的繁 荣。 格隆汇1月16日｜针对外界质疑"英伟达此前提出的铜需求预期值存在错误"，英伟达已悄然将其一篇技 术论文中有关数据中心铜需求量数据进行了改正。据英伟达官网去年刊登的一份技术论文指出，一个容 量在一吉瓦的传统数据中心机架，需要高达50万吨铜母线，这引起外界对未来铜的供需形势大为担忧。 不过，近期有媒体指出 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the challenges faced by Apple as TSMC's largest customer due to the rising demand for advanced packaging capacity from competitors like NVIDIA and AMD, leading to significant increases in foundry prices and a shift in capacity allocation dynamics [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - TSMC's revenue growth reached $122 billion in the previous year, a 36% increase, while NVIDIA's sales are projected to surge by 62% by January 2026 [3] - Apple's product revenue growth is expected to be only 3.6% over the 12 months ending December 2025, indicating a stark contrast to the growth of NVIDIA and AMD [3][4] - The shift in TSMC's customer dynamics suggests that Apple is no longer the primary growth driver for TSMC, a role it held five years ago [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - TSMC's gross margin has reached an impressive 62.3%, nearing levels typically seen in software companies, reflecting its enhanced pricing power [2][4] - TSMC forecasts a revenue growth of nearly 30% for 2026, with capital expenditures expected to rise by about 32%, reaching a record $52 to $56 billion [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The evolution of technology roadmaps appears to favor NVIDIA and AMD, indicating that Apple will need to compete for capacity in the near term [5][8] - TSMC's most advanced 2nm process is currently in production, with Apple as a major buyer, but upcoming nodes are expected to focus more on high-performance computing (HPC) needs [5][8] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Despite the competitive pressures, Apple's broad product line across TSMC's multiple fabs provides a level of stability that is still valuable to TSMC [9][10] - TSMC's CEO has expressed concerns about the company's expansion pace and the associated risks, particularly regarding depreciation costs, which are significantly higher than those of its fabless competitors [9]

Are these new semiconductor tariffs a sign of the Chinese market opening back up for Nvidia and AMD?In today's video, I discuss recent updates affecting Nvidia (NVDA +2.06%), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +1.87%), and other AI stocks. To learn more, check out the short video, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below. *Stock prices used were the after-market prices of Jan. 14, 2026. The video was published on Jan. 14, 2026. ...

Pajjuri表示："AI工作负载正朝着强化学习与分布式推理方向转型，而这两类技术路线均对存储器性能 提出极高要求。即将到来的HBM4迭代是另一重要利好，其平均售价预计高出30-50%。生成式AI的爆 发，也推动了高容量服务器内存条(DIMM)以及固态硬盘(NAND eSSD)的需求增长。尽管存储器价格高 企可能对PC及智能手机市场需求造成一定压力，但我们预计，到2027年，存储器行业仍将维持供不应 求的格局。" 与多家金融机构的观点一致，该行预计未来两年晶圆制造设备(WFE)领域的资本开支将保持强劲增长态 势。 Pajjuri补充道："此外，背侧供电、先进封装以及三维结构等技术趋势的落地，让我们有理由相信，未 来两年晶圆制造设备市场增速至少能达到高个位数水平。" 该行分析师Srini Pajjuri和Grant Li在一份投资者报告中指出："当前市场供应紧张，企业订单交付周期已 延长至18个月，这也让行业前景更为清晰。基础设施瓶颈或导致部分项目延期，但在我们看来，这未必 是利空因素——此类制约反而可能拉长并平滑AI领域的支出周期。尽管定制化专用集成电路(ASIC)近期 取得进展，但考虑到AI技术迭代速度迅猛 ...

当科技巨头们还在为台积电的晶圆产能激烈竞争时，英伟达CEO黄仁勋已经将目光投向了更长远的目标 ——直接锁定台积电未来工厂的土地。这一策略凸显出英伟达在AI芯片需求爆发背景下，正试图从根 本上确保其供应链安全。 1月15日，天风国际证券分析师郭明錤发推文称，"大多数客户协商的是保证产能，而黄仁勋协商的是土 地。"郭明錤指出，在去年11月访问台南时，黄仁勋向台积电表示愿意付费确保Fab 18厂区旁预留的P10 和P11地块，其最终目标是连P12地块也一并拿下。当时，Fab 18的规划仅明确定义到P1至P9。 产能争夺战重塑客户格局 根据Culpium的分析和供应链消息人士透露，英伟达可能在2025年至少一到两个季度超越苹果，成为台 积电最大客户。虽然台积电首席财务官黄仲达拒绝就客户排名变化置评，但公开数据已经说明问题。 这一举措正值台积电宣布2026年资本支出将达到520亿至560亿美元的创纪录水平，远超市场此前预期的 450亿至520亿美元。台积电在财报电话会议上明确表示，英伟达的强劲需求是推动这一支出增长的关键 驱动力。 与此同时，苹果等传统大客户正面临产能获取压力，英伟达可能已在2025年部分季度超越苹果成 ...

" 欧米伽未来研究所 " 关注科技未来发展趋势，研究人类向欧米伽点演化过程中面临的重大机遇与挑战。将不定期推荐和发布世界范围重要科技研究进展和未 来趋势研究。 （ 点击这里查看广义智能体理论 ） 在人工智能（AI）浪潮席卷全球科技行业数年后，市场对于这一趋势的持久性与周期性始终保持着高度关注。2026年1月6日，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）研究团队发布了题为《2026年全球科技行业展望》（Global Tech Outlook 2026）的重磅报告。这份长达34页的深度分析文件，不仅是对新一年科 技股投资的战术指南，更是对全球计算架构转型期的一次全景式扫描。 摩根士丹利预测，AI服务器的需求在2026年将保持强劲。最引人注目的预测是关于英伟达（Nvidia）GPU服务器机架的出货量：预计将从2025年的约2.8 万架翻倍增长至2026年的更高水平。报告特别强调，这一增长并非仅仅是数量的堆叠，更是算力密度的质变。随着数据中心相关收入预计占到英伟达2025 年总收入的40%，并在2026年至少达到50%，整个产业链的价值中枢正在不可逆转地向高性能计算集群转移。 这种扩张并非没有代价，它正在重塑数据中 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 Future Horizons 认为，全球半导体行业未来一年将面临高度不确定性，预计2026 年市场增长率将在 正负 12% 左右。该研究公司最新发布的市场报告指出，2025年22%的增长率过于集中，并不代表整 个行业的全面复苏。 Future Horizons 表示，如果人工智能基础设施需求疲软，智能手机和汽车等传统市场未能反弹，半 导体行业今年可能面临急剧下滑。 雪上加霜的是，关于芯片出货量何时恢复、平均售价能否继续上涨以及对传统节点晶圆厂（尤其是在 中国）的过度投资将如何影响市场等问题仍悬而未决。该研究公司将当前的AI热潮与2020-2021年疫 情引发的激增相比较，并警告称，正如那轮周期戛然而止一样，这一轮也可能如此。 全球最大的芯片制造商台积电本周发表了更为乐观的言论，称人工智能的繁荣是"真实的"，人工智能 驱动的需求"无论如何都将在未来很多年里持续下去"。 AI泡沫，可能在两年内破裂 目前强劲的半导体市场正受到人工智能应用的推动。麦肯锡的一项调查显示，到2025年，88%的企业 将使用人工智能，而2023年这一比例仅为55%。据Inc.com报道，在 ...

美东时间2026年1月15日（周四），美股收高，在台积电财报带动下，美股芯片板块普涨。原油价格创下自2025年6月以来最大跌幅。 道指涨292.81点，涨幅为0.60%，报49442.44点；纳指涨58.27点，涨幅为0.25%，报23530.02点；标普500指数涨17.87点，涨幅 为0.26%，报6944.47点。 CME"美联储观察"工具显示，美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为 20.8%，维持利率不变的概率为78.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.9%。 堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长施密德于周四表示反对降息。他称通胀"过热"，并警告特朗普政府的政策可能进一步推动经济增长势头。 【导读】美股收高，银行股、芯片股领涨；原油大跌，黄金白银跳水 中国基金报记者 赵刚 综合整理 芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁古尔斯比表示，在有充分证据表明就业市场稳定的情况下，美联储应将重点放在降低通胀上。 美国上周初请失业金人数为19.8万人，预期为21.5万人，前值自20.8万人修正至20.7万人。 芯片股多数上涨 香港万得通讯社报道，美国白宫发布声明，美国从1月15日 ...

Group 1 - The global semiconductor market is projected to exceed $793 billion by 2025, representing a 21% increase from 2024, driven by the demand for graphics processing semiconductors and high-performance memory for generative AI data centers [1] - Nvidia has become the first semiconductor company to surpass $100 billion in annual sales, achieving $125.7 billion in sales last year, a 63.9% year-over-year increase, with a market share of 15.8% [1] - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rank second and third in semiconductor sales, with Samsung projected to achieve $72.5 billion in sales by 2025, holding a 9.1% market share, while SK Hynix is expected to reach $60.64 billion in sales, a 37.2% year-over-year increase, with a market share of 7.6% [1] Group 2 - The significant increase in demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) and the expansion of sales in the rising price environment of the general DRAM market are key factors driving SK Hynix's performance [2] - Gartner predicts that by 2029, AI semiconductors will account for over 50% of total global semiconductor sales, becoming the core driver of market growth [2]