Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has increased tenfold over the past three years, transitioning from a niche gaming company to a central player in the AI industry, with its GPUs now essential for generative AI development [1][2]. Group 1: Market Position and Growth - Nvidia's market capitalization has surged from $345 billion to nearly $4.5 trillion, driven by the generative AI boom [2]. - The company is evolving from a GPU designer to a comprehensive platform that includes chips, software, and networking gear, establishing partnerships with major firms like Anthropic, Intel, and Palantir [2][4]. - Nvidia's GPUs are being widely adopted by hyperscalers, enhancing the company's market lock-in as these companies develop next-generation AI models [5]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - Nvidia's $20 billion licensing deal with Groq aims to enhance its inference capabilities, allowing for more efficient operations within its existing infrastructure [6]. - Collaborations with Intel focus on custom CPU designs that integrate Nvidia's technology, enabling the sale of full-stack server solutions without requiring architecture changes [7]. - Partnerships with companies like Palantir and Nokia are expanding Nvidia's role in enterprise workflows and physical AI applications, positioning the company for sustained revenue growth [8][9]. Group 3: Future Valuation and Earnings Potential - Analysts project Nvidia's earnings per share (EPS) growth to slow down between 2026 and 2027, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic, with potential EPS of around $17 by 2030 [10][12]. - Applying a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24 to the projected EPS suggests a share price of approximately $400, indicating a 117% upside from the current price [12]. - Nvidia is positioned to reach a market cap of nearly $10 trillion by 2030, driven by its transition to a diversified platform player and ongoing market opportunities [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter of 2025 experienced a sharp 5% sell-off followed by a quick recovery, with global stocks reaching all-time highs, influenced by concerns over a potential AI bubble and subsequent strong earnings from NVIDIA [4][5]. Portfolio Performance & Attribution - The Polen Global Growth Composite Portfolio returned -2.5% gross of fees and -2.7% net of fees in Q4 2025, underperforming the MSCI All Country World Index, which returned +3.3% [7]. - Top relative contributors included Eli Lilly, Alphabet, and Shopify, while Oracle, Paycom Software, and CoStar Group were the largest detractors [7][8]. - Eli Lilly's stock rallied over 40% in Q4 due to strong financial results and a favorable agreement on drug pricing, despite earlier concerns [8]. - Oracle's performance reversed from the previous quarter, primarily due to skepticism regarding its future revenue tied to OpenAI, impacting its stock negatively [9]. Portfolio Activity - New positions were initiated in Tencent Holdings and Spotify, while positions in Sage Group, Willis Towers Watson, ICON Plc, and Workday were eliminated to fund these investments [10][11]. - Tencent has shown consistent earnings growth of over 30% annually for the past three years, and its valuation is considered reasonable for sustainable revenue growth [11]. - Spotify is viewed as a leading streaming network with significant growth potential, expecting over 20% annual free cash flow growth for the next five years [12]. Outlook - The datacenter capital expenditure cycle is expected to continue, driven by increasing demand and supportive government policies, suggesting a favorable environment for growth in revenues and earnings for key players [17]. - The portfolio is positioned to deliver above-average earnings growth, with a focus on sectors outside of the AI and datacenter themes, ensuring resilience regardless of market drivers [18].

黄仁勋将AI比作一个由能源、芯片、云基础设施、模型和应用组成的"五层蛋糕"，称AI应用是这块蛋糕 中最关键的一层，因为这正是经济效益的源泉。黄仁勋表示，由于运行和训练人工智能需要建设数据中 心，水管工、电工和建筑工人将能拿到"六位数薪资"。他说，这项技术将带来史上最大规模的基建建设 潮之一，带动数万亿美元的新增投资，"我们看到这个领域正在蓬勃发展，薪资水平几乎翻了一番，每 个人都应该有机会获得体面的收入"。 1月22日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋当地时间1月21日在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上（WEF）接受由贝莱 德CEO拉里·芬克主持的访谈。黄仁勋表示，AI发展需要"人类历史上规模最大的基础设施建设"，需要 数万亿美元新投资。他还谈到，2025年是全球风险投资额最高的一年，全球投入资金超过1000亿美元， 其中大部分投入于AI原生初创企业。 责任编辑：栎树 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

Group 1 - Apple has historically been a key driver of TSMC's growth through exclusive chip manufacturing partnerships, but this dynamic is shifting dramatically due to the explosive growth in AI demand from Nvidia [1] - TSMC's CEO, C.C. Wei, indicated during a visit from Apple executives in August 2025 that Apple would face significant price increases and would no longer have guaranteed priority access to TSMC's wafer production capacity [1] - Nvidia is expected to surpass Apple as TSMC's largest customer in certain quarters of 2025, driven by a surge in high-performance GPU orders fueled by the AI boom [1] Group 2 - Apple's chip product line is broader and more diverse, while Nvidia's products are highly concentrated in advanced process nodes with significant wafer demand [2] - Despite Apple's long-term importance to TSMC over the next decade, the current market environment favors high-performance computing chip companies like Nvidia and AMD, indicating that Apple will need to compete for advanced process capacity in the next one to two years [2]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 尽管遭到白宫人工智能事务负责人戴维·萨克斯的反对，以及社交媒体上针对该法案的反对运动，美 国众议院外交事务委员会仍以压倒性多数投票通过了一项法案，该法案将赋予国会更大的权力来控制 人工智能芯片的出口。 佛罗里达州共和党众议员、众议院外交事务委员会主席布莱恩·马斯特在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普批准 交付英伟达强大的 H200人工智能芯片后，于 12 月提出了"人工智能监管法案"。 该法案仍需经众议院和参议院全体通过，它将给予众议院外交事务委员会和参议院银行委员会 30 天 的时间来审查并可能阻止向中国和其他对手出口先进人工智能芯片的许可证。该法案还要求美国商务 部向立法者提供一份完整、详细的申请书，证明这些芯片不会被用于对美国进行的军事、情报或监视 活动。 上周，萨克斯分享了一个名为"华尔街特立独行者"的 X 账户发布的一篇文章，该文章声称这项法案 是由"永不挺川者"以及巴拉克·奥巴马和乔·拜登总统的前幕僚策划的，目的是破坏特朗普的权威和他 的"美国优先"战略。 该帖子特别点名批评了人工智能公司 Anthropic 的首席执行官 Dario Amodei，声称他雇佣了 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 到了2022年2月，Rajiv Khemani和Barun Kar创立了一家名为Auradine的公司，该公司致力于研发4 纳米和3纳米制程的人工智能和区块链计算及网络芯片。Auradine在2024年之前完成了两轮融资，共 筹集了1.61亿美元，并在2025年4月的B轮融资中又筹集了1.53亿美元。 日前，一家名为Upscale AI的芯片初创公司宣布。已完成 2 亿美元的 A 轮融资，旨在挑战 英伟达在机架级 AI 系统交换机领域的统治地位，与思科、博通和 AMD 等公司展开竞争。 据 该 公 司 在 新 闻 中 介 绍 ， 本 轮 融 资 由 Tiger Global 、 Premji Invest 和 Xora Innovation 领 投 ， Maverick Silicon 、 StepStone Group 、 Mayfield 、 Prosperity7 Ventures 、 Intel Capital 和 Qualcomm Ventures参投。此次融资使Upscale AI的总融资额超过3亿美元。他们进一步指出，投资 者的迅速涌入反映了行业日 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在一次采访中表示，英伟达目前是台积电最大的客户，取代了此前长期占据 榜首的苹果公司。这位身着皮衣的首席执行官是在"Jodi Shelton的私人访谈"播客节目第一集中发表 这番言论的。节目中，主持人Jodi Shelton询问黄仁勋的自信源自何处。Shelton自称是"全球半导体 行业的资深领导者"，同时也是全球半导体联盟的首席执行官兼联合创始人。 "我记得张忠谋也讲过一个类似的故事，他第一次见到你的时候，你立刻就说，'我将会成为你们最大 的客户，或者至少是最大的客户之一。'他当时就觉得，'哇，你真有魄力。'那么，你这么年轻就这么 自信，是从哪儿来的呢？"谢尔顿问道。"嗯，你知道，什么都懂也挺麻烦的——我开玩笑的，"黄仁 勋笑着说。"对了，张忠谋知道英伟达现在是台积电最大的客户，他肯定会很高兴的。" （原文：By the way, Morris will be happy to know Nvidia is TSMC's largest customer now.） 这家人工智能GPU公司在2000年代初期曾是台积电最大的客户。然而，在20 ...

Group 1 - Oil stocks generally rose, with CNOOC (02883) up 4.32%, PetroChina (00857) up 3.33%, CNOOC (00883) up 2.98%, and Sinopec (00386) up 3.01%. International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures for February closing at $60.62 per barrel, up 0.43%, and Brent crude oil futures for March at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49% [1] - CATL (03750) fell over 4%, down 4.4% as of the report. A report from Citi raised concerns about CATL's growth prospects due to slowing EV sales in China, rising lithium prices, and reduced export VAT rebates [1] - Kintor Pharmaceutical (02171) rose nearly 4% after announcing a clinical collaboration with Dispatch Bio to initiate a Phase I clinical trial in China by 2026 for a treatment method targeting solid tumors [1] Group 2 - Guoxia Technology (02655) surged over 7% following a strategic cooperation agreement with Shuneng Electric to enhance collaboration in the energy storage sector [2] - Kingsoft Biotech (01548) dropped over 6% after its affiliate Legend Biotech's stock fell more than 11%. Kingsoft reported that Legend's CARVYKTI had a net sales of approximately $555 million for Q4 [2] - Hong Kong real estate stocks saw a general rise, with Hysan Development (00014) up 5.17%, Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) up 3.36%, and Wharf Real Estate (01997) up 4.02%. A report from Citi indicated a recovery in Hong Kong property prices, predicting a continued upward trend, albeit at a moderate pace due to tempered interest rate cut expectations [2] Group 3 - Baidu Group (09888) rose nearly 5%, with a cumulative increase of over 40% in the past two months. The company launched the official version of its Wenxin large model 5.0, featuring 2.4 trillion parameters [3] - Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) increased over 9%, reaching a new high of HKD 2.96, benefiting from a rise in the Baltic Dry Index, which increased by 74 points or 4.3% to 1803 points [3] - GDS Holdings (09698) rose nearly 3% after announcing the sale of shares in DayOne for $385 million, recovering approximately 95% of its investment principal with a return rate close to 6.5 times [4] Group 4 - The US stock market saw an expansion in gains, with the Nasdaq up 1%. Notable tech stocks like Intel (INTC.US) rose 11.72%, reaching a market cap of over $250 billion, the highest in four years [5] - The storage sector continued to strengthen, with Micron Technology (MU.US) up 6.61% and Western Digital (WDC.US) up 8.49%. Counterpoint Research indicated that the storage market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing previous highs due to increased demand from AI and server capacity [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged 2%, with popular Chinese stocks like Bilibili (BILI.US) up 5.65% and Baidu (BIDU.US) up 8.17% [6]

@niccruzpatane 指出黄仁勋用英伟达股票为其父母购买 1999 年款奔驰 S 级轿车，价值约为 8 万美元。 如果按照英伟达当前市值计算，这辆车价值约为 12 亿美元，增长 15000 倍。 黄仁勋强调，相比于股市波动，他更关注行业基本面。他认为，在超大规模云计算厂商 （Hyperscalers）的推动下，全球目前正经历"人类历史上最大规模的基础设施建设"，而这仅仅是开 始。 针对 AI 行业的未来发展，黄仁勋指出，目前的建设投入已达数千亿美元，但未来需求仍高达数万亿美 元。他解释称，这种大规模投入完全合理，因为 AI 模型需要处理海量语境信息，才能生成驱动上层应 用所需的智能。 随着前沿模型和代理式 AI（Agentic AI）的兴起，市场对底层算力的需求将持续爆发。目前的挑战在 于，这些大规模投资能否有效转化为广泛且持续的技术应用。 来源：IT之家 在达沃斯世界经济论坛（WEF）对话贝莱德（BlackRock）首席执行官拉里 · 芬克（Larry Fink）时，英 伟达首席执行官黄仁勋透露，其公司上市后曾以 3 亿美元估值出售股票，只为给父母购买一辆梅赛德斯 S 级轿车。鉴于英伟达目前市值已逼 ...

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 上周二（13日），以25%销售额抽成为条件，美国特朗普政府正式批准英伟达对华出口H200人工智能 （AI）芯片， 但这遭到两党对华鹰派议员的强烈反对。 仅仅一周后，为抢夺先进AI芯片对华销售的审查权，美国众议院外交事务委员会于周三（21日）以压 倒性优势表决通过一项两党联合提案。该法案明确要求，参照军售审查模式，由国会对先进AI芯片出 口实施监管。 据彭博社22日报道，依据这项法案，美国政府在批准先进AI芯片出口前，必须事先通知国会；国会则 有权通过联合决议案，审查并否决针对中国、俄罗斯、伊朗及其他所谓"敌对国家"的出口许可。 此外，法案明确规定，未来至少两年内全面禁止向中国出售英伟达更先进的Blackwell芯片，同时将现 行出口管制措施正式纳入法律条文。 特朗普在白宫会晤黄仁勋 视频截图 据报道，该法案以42票赞成、2票反对在委员会获批，下一步将提交众议院全体会议表决。该法案仍需 参众两院通过并获得特朗普的签署才能生效。 目前参议院尚未出台配套法案，但部分参议员已另行提交议案，其效力或将直接禁止H200芯片对华销 售。 报道指出，本次提案是美国国会最新一次试图限制特朗普政府推动英 ...