知名做空投资人、素有"大空头"之称的迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）再次对人工智能（AI）泡沫发出 警告。他"剑指"当前科技繁荣称，长期低迷即将到来。 伯里因在2008年金融危机前精准做空抵押贷款支持证券而声名鹊起，迈克尔·刘易斯 （Michael Lewis）的著作《大空头》和奥斯卡获奖影片《大空头》都记录了他的这一交易。 去年10月底，伯里在沉寂数年后重返公众视野。自那以来，他多次预警股市泡沫风险，披露 了做空英伟达等AI股的新仓位，并推出了Substack付费通讯专栏，以向外界自由输出其投资 观点。 长期低迷 伯里在Substack上发文警告称，包括微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet在内的所谓超大规模数据中心运营商， 正在将巨额资金浪费在微芯片和数据中心上，而这些设备很快就会过时，因为用于驱动诸如聊天机器人 等人工智能工具的这些设备将会变得标准化。 他将此事与"股神"巴菲特在20世纪60年代短暂拥有的巴尔的摩百货公司Hochschild-Kohn进行了比较。 辣评AI宠儿 事实上，伯里在好几篇文章中都抨击了那些高歌猛进的人工智能股票，并警告它们估值过高，注定会暴 跌。 在他最新发布的帖子中，他有 ...

Core Insights - The global AI infrastructure investment is entering a new super cycle, driven by technology upgrades and supply shortages in key components, with significant growth expected in the AI network market until 2026 or 2027 [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The shipment of 800G optical modules is projected to increase from 20 million units in 2025 to 43 million units in 2026, while 1.6T optical module shipments are expected to surge from 2.5 million units to 20 million units [1] - The penetration rate of silicon photonics (SiPh) technology in the 800G/1.6T market is anticipated to reach 50-70% [1] - The optical module market is experiencing structural growth opportunities, with Ethernet optical module market revenue expected to surge by 93% in 2024, followed by 48% and 35% growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [12] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply chain bottlenecks are expected to strengthen the competitive advantage of leading companies, with advanced optical chip production capacity projected to grow over 80% by 2026, yet still lagging behind demand by 5-15% [2] - Major players like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication are positioned to maintain significant market shares in the 800G/1.6T optical module market, with Zhongji Xuchuang expected to hold 25-30% and 35-40% shares, respectively [12] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The evolution of technology is critical, with AI giants like NVIDIA, Google, Meta, and Amazon AWS actively upgrading their network architectures through various technological paths, including SiPh, Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) [1] - CPO technology is expected to accelerate commercialization starting in 2026, with penetration rates projected to rise from 3% in 2026 to 20% by 2030, and market size expected to grow from $1.6 billion to $13.1 billion during the same period [14] Group 4: Market Segmentation and Trends - The optical fiber and cable market is showing a bifurcated trend, with strong demand from AI data centers, where AI application optical cable demand is expected to grow by 138% in 2024 and 77% in 2025 [13] - The Ethernet switch market is experiencing robust growth, with a 35.2% year-on-year increase in revenue in Q3 2025, and a significant rise in 800G switch revenue by 91.6% [17]

Nvidia is facing more challenges when it comes to selling its artificial-intelligence chips to China. But analysts are still backing the stock to get out of its rut. ...

Core Insights - Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, emphasizes that the company's success is not based on GPU production volume but rather on its unique corporate culture and innovation capabilities [1][24] - Huang predicts that AI investments will fundamentally change computing, leading to computers that can learn autonomously under human guidance, resulting in a transformation of job roles rather than a reduction in employment [2][41] - Nvidia's management structure is designed to foster a safe environment where mistakes are tolerated, allowing for innovation and growth without fear of termination [1][25] Group 1: Company Philosophy and Culture - Nvidia has cultivated a culture where no one is fired for making mistakes, fostering a safe environment for innovation [1][25] - The company has a unique management structure with nearly 61 individuals acting as "CEOs," each deeply committed to the company's mission [1][18] - Huang believes that the essence of Nvidia's success lies in its corporate character and the ability to unite the team in adversity [24] Group 2: Vision for the Future - Huang asserts that in five years, AI will enable computers to handle problems a billion times larger than current capabilities, fundamentally altering the nature of work [38][39] - The future will see an increase in productivity and efficiency across industries, with AI solving previously insurmountable challenges [40][41] - Huang anticipates that while job roles will evolve, the overall number of jobs will not decrease, and AI will provide new opportunities for those currently unemployed [41][44] Group 3: Historical Context and Personal Insights - Nvidia's journey has spanned 33 years, with a consistent focus on reshaping the computing industry since its inception [5][16] - Huang reflects on the importance of learning from past decisions and maintaining a flexible approach to leadership and strategy [14][15] - The company has a history of making bold decisions, such as the early adoption of CUDA technology, which laid the groundwork for its current success [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][6]. Core Insights - The AI medical sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant commercial opportunities emerging. Major players like NVIDIA and Eli Lilly are investing heavily in AI drug development, while domestic companies like Ant Group are promoting AI health management products [5][13][14]. - Alibaba's Qianwen app has transitioned into the "AI service era," integrating over 400 AI service functions and achieving over 100 million monthly active users, showcasing the potential for AI applications in enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [15][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of building a self-sufficient and efficient computing infrastructure in response to increasing global competition and the exponential growth of AI application demands [16]. Summary by Sections AI Empowerment in Healthcare - The AI healthcare sector is at a commercial inflection point, with significant investments from both domestic and international companies. Key areas of growth include AI drug development, medical imaging analysis, and personal health management, which are expected to see increased investment value as clinical validation and regulatory frameworks improve [5][14]. Development of AI Ecosystem - Domestic tech giants are rapidly advancing their AI ecosystems, leveraging their large user bases and data resources. This integration is expected to enhance service delivery and operational efficiency across various sectors [15][16]. Market Performance - The computer sector index rose by 3.82% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, indicating positive market sentiment [8]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies for investment consideration, including: - AI Computing: Cambrian (688256.SH), Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Inspur Information (000977.SZ), and Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) [6][17]. - Vertical AI Applications: Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), Dingjie Zhizhi (300378.SZ), Hand Information (300170.SZ), and others [6][17].

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 19 日 行业及产业 电子 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《电子行业周报：NVIDIA 宣布 Rubin 平台全 面量产》2026-01-12 《电子行业跟踪报告：2026 年 Neuralink 将对 脑机接口设备进行大规模生产》2026-01-12 《人工智能月度跟踪：CES 2026 AI 前沿信息 汇总》2026-01-09 《电子行业周报：国产 DRAM 存储龙头 IPO 成 功受理》2026-01-06 《爱建电子深度报告：卫星通信加速进入发展 元年》2026-01-05 许亮 S0820525010002 0755-83562506 xuliang@ajzq.com 朱俊宇 S0820125040021 021-32229888-25520 zhujunyu@ajzq.com 台积电 25Q4 单季度业绩创历史新高 ——电子行业周报（2026/1/12-1/18） 本周（2026/1/12-1/18）SW 电子行业指数（+3.77%），涨跌幅排名 2/ ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 19 日 行业及产业 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《电子行业周报：NVIDIA 宣布 Rubin 平台全 面量产》2026-01-12 电子 《电子行业跟踪报告：2026 年 Neuralink 将对 脑机接口设备进行大规模生产》2026-01-12 《人工智能月度跟踪：CES 2026 AI 前沿信息 汇总》2026-01-09 《电子行业周报：国产 DRAM 存储龙头 IPO 成 功受理》2026-01-06 《爱建电子深度报告：卫星通信加速进入发展 元年》2026-01-05 许亮 S0820525010002 0755-83562506 xuliang@ajzq.com 朱俊宇 S0820125040021 021-32229888-25520 zhujunyu@ajzq.com 台积电 25Q4 单季度业绩创历史新高 ——电子行业周报（2026/1/12-1/18） 本周（2026/1/12-1/18）SW 电子行业指数（+3.77%），涨跌幅排名 2/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The global AI ecosystem is structured as a "five-layer cake," consisting of energy, chips, cloud, AI models, and applications, with various companies leading each layer, presenting investment opportunities across the ecosystem [1]. Layer 1: Energy - Constellation Energy is the largest producer of reliable, clean energy in the US, with nuclear power accounting for approximately two-thirds of its output [2]. - In 3Q2025, operating revenues increased by 0.31% YoY to US$6.6 billion, while adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings rose by 10.7% YoY due to fewer nuclear outage days [2]. - For 9M2025, operating cash flow turned positive at US$3.4 billion, a significant improvement from an outflow of US$1.44 billion the previous year [3]. - The company aims for a long-term growth target of 13% per year in operating earnings through 2030 [4]. Layer 2: Chips - NVIDIA has evolved from a GPU provider for gaming to a leader in AI architecture, now dominating the networking business for generative AI models [5]. - In 3QFY2026, revenue grew by 62.5% YoY to US$57 billion, with net income increasing by over 65% to nearly US$32 billion [6]. - Free cash flow for the same period rose by 31.5% YoY to US$22.1 billion, driven by the demand for NVIDIA's advanced GPU architecture [6]. - The company's CUDA platform supports virtually all current and emerging AI models, establishing a strong competitive moat [7]. Layer 3: Infrastructure - Microsoft’s Azure holds a 20% share of the global cloud market, ranking second after AWS [8]. - In 1QFY2026, Microsoft's revenue and net income increased by 18.4% YoY to US$77.67 billion and 12.5% YoY to US$27.75 billion, respectively [9]. - Operating cash flow surged nearly 32% YoY to US$45.1 billion, driven by cloud strength [9]. - Microsoft integrates AI into its enterprise ecosystem, enhancing demand for Azure and achieving over 100% growth in commercial bookings [10]. Layer 4: AI Models - Alphabet employs a proprietary full-stack approach to AI model development, distinguishing itself from competitors [11]. - In 3Q2025, Alphabet's revenue rose by nearly 16% YoY to US$102.3 billion, with net income increasing almost 33% YoY to US$35 billion [11]. - The company’s vertically integrated AI ecosystem allows for innovation and monetization across multiple layers with high efficiency [11]. Layer 5: Applications - Salesforce leads the CRM technology market with a 20.7% share, reporting an 8.6% revenue increase to US$10.3 billion in 3QFY2026 [12]. - Net earnings and free cash flow surged by 36.6% and 22.3% YoY to US$2.1 billion and US$2.2 billion, respectively [12]. - The deployment of agentic AI through the Agentforce Platform has enabled clients to automate up to 98% of manual activities [13]. - Agentforce accounted for six out of ten deals in the latest quarter, showcasing strong market momentum [14].

整理 | 华卫 "世界上不会再出现第二个我这样的 CEO 了。"近日，英伟达联合创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）在一场私人访 谈中这样说道。 据称，这场深度对话已经酝酿了三十年，将黄仁勋鲜为人知的一面展现在大众眼前。主持人 Jodi Shelton 与黄仁勋的职业交集 始于三十余年前，彼时，图形处理器（GPU）尚未掀起席卷全球的 AI 革命。从加速计算的源头到生成式 AI 的前景，这场对话 堪比一堂远见大师课。 在访谈中，黄仁勋表示，从某种意义上说，英伟达其实有 61 位 "CEO"。过去这些年，包括他在内，很多人都犯过严重的错 误，但在英伟达，从来没有人因为犯错而被解雇。"我们打造了一个足够安全的环境。"他还透露，CEO 这个职位，远比人们想 象的要脆弱得多。"实际上，我们可能是公司里最脆弱的一群人。不过对我来说，承认这种脆弱，并不是什么难事。" 有意思的是，他提到，在很多方面，自己都算是一个 "不情愿的 CEO"。"公开演讲简直让我怕得要死。比起待在公司外面抛头 露面，我更喜欢扎根在公司内部；比起发表演讲，我更喜欢安静做事；我甚至一点都不喜欢做主题演讲，但为了公司，我必须 去做这些事。 ...

Key Points Letting your winners run is a time-honored and extremely successful investing strategy. Several of the market's biggest winners are well positioned to continue their relentless climb. Nvidia and Alphabet are already within striking distance of this lofty benchmark, and it wouldn't take much for Apple and Microsoft to get there as well. 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia › One of the most tried-and-true strategies in investing is to buy great companies and hold them through thick and ...