从本轮海外算力主升浪看国产算力行情， Tokens 消耗量是核心观察点-算力周报 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 算力景气强劲，上周博通、英伟达股价双双创新高 受益英伟达股东大会乐观表述、首届中国 AI 算力大会等事件影响， 上周算力产业链相关公司股价表现依旧强劲。数通 PCB/CCL 板块中， 景旺电子+22.63%，胜宏科技+16.6%，南亚新材+15.19%，方正科技 +13.33%，深南电路+8.79%；铜缆板块中，兆龙互连+13.15%，华丰科技 +10.28%，沃尔核材+4.49%；光芯片板块中，长光华芯+8.81%，源杰科 技+6.95%。服务器代工板块中，华勤技术+10.27%，工业富联+3.69%。 近期英伟达股价的回升也反映了市场对于 AI 需求持续增长的认可，黄 仁勋在股东大会上表示，仅微软在近一个季度处理 AI 模型的请求量就 比去年同期增加了五倍以上。与此同时，英伟达关键存储供应商美光科 技周三公布的 FY25Q3 季度收入达到创纪录的 93 亿美元，超出华尔街 预期的 89 亿美元，并对 AI 需求增长给出积极预测，进一步佐证了 ...

上周五纳指、标普500指数创历史新高，欧股上涨；加元一度跌0.9%；黄金期货周一亚市盘初一 度跌破3250美元/盎司。 中国央行Q2货币政策例会称灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏，未提择机降准降息。 中国商务部：近日中美双方进一步确认了日内瓦共识的框架细节，中方将依法审批符合条件的管 制物项出口申请，美方将相应取消对华一系列限制性措施。 美联储最爱通胀指标温和上升，5月核心PCE物价环比上涨0.2%，消费支出创年初最大降幅。 特朗普：将挑选希望降息的人作美联储主席，鲍威尔"愚蠢"、人为保持高利率，美国利率应在1% 或2%。 特朗普炮轰加拿大数字税，终止所有美加贸易谈判，威胁征新关税，停止谈判直到加拿大取消某 些税收为止。 特朗普周末加班，美国国会冲刺"7月4日最后期限"，美参议院程序性投票仅两票优势通过"大漂 亮"法案；共和党议员预测30日周一参院进行最终投票。 马斯克再度猛批"大漂亮"法案：破坏美国未来产业、毁掉数百万就业，"共和党的政治自杀"；特 朗普：马斯克是很棒的人，但言论不当。 科技巨头"去英伟达化"面临现实考验，微软AI芯片推迟至2026年量产。 黄仁勋带头，英伟达高管一年来已套现超10亿美元股票，过 ...

当前，头部科技企业正通过自研芯片加强对算力基础设施的控制权。据《纽约时报》此前报道，亚马逊、超微半导体公司和几家初创公司开始提 供英伟达芯片的可靠替代品，特别是针对AI开发中被称为"推理"的阶段。其中，亚马逊宣布推出基于其新款Trainium 2芯片的计算服务，并获得了 包括苹果在内的潜在用户的好评。 本月12日，超威半导体公司发布了将于2026年推出的新型AI服务器——MI350系列芯片和MI400系列芯片，并将该系列产品与英伟达对比。据路透 社报道，超威半导体公司CEO苏姿丰表示，这些芯片将与英伟达的Blackwell系列芯片展开竞争。超威半导体公司一直难以从英伟达手中抢走快速 增长的AI芯片市场份额。"AI的未来不会由任何一家公司或一个封闭的生态系统来构建，它将由整个行业的开放合作来塑造。"苏姿丰说。 不过，据加拿大科技媒体"Wccftech"网站27日报道，尽管科技巨头投入巨资自研芯片以降低对英伟达的依赖，但英伟达的AI芯片仍在产业内保持 着领先优势。报道称，微软颠覆英伟达AI主导地位的雄心正在动摇，首款自主研发的AI芯片"Braga"因性能不达预期而延期生产。初步性能评估报 告显示，其性能还无法超越 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has transformed from a chip supplier to a leading player in the global AI infrastructure market, with a market cap of $3.5 trillion, raising questions about its future direction [1] Recent Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Nvidia reported $44.1 billion in revenue, a 69% year-over-year increase, surpassing the combined earnings of Starbucks and Netflix in a quarter [3] - The data center segment contributed $39.1 billion, reflecting a 73% year-over-year growth, driven by high demand for AI infrastructure from enterprises and governments [3] Growth Catalysts - Continued investment from enterprises and cloud providers in data centers and AI infrastructure is expected, with the AI data center market projected to reach nearly $100 billion by 2030 [4] - Nvidia's Blackwell architecture chips are in high demand for AI inference workloads, leading to full production capacity reserved at Wistron's new Taiwan plant through 2026 [5] Business Model Evolution - Nvidia has evolved into a full-stack solution provider for accelerated computing, offering hardware, software, and networking solutions, which supports high-performance and low-latency deployments [6] - The increasing contribution of software to Nvidia's revenue mix is expected to enhance gross margins, which currently stand at 61% [7] Market Opportunities - Beyond data centers, Nvidia is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI technologies in sectors such as automotive, edge AI, robotics, and industrial design, which are still developing but hold significant long-term potential [7] Competitive Landscape - Nvidia faces competition from Advanced Micro Devices and custom chip developments by hyperscalers like Alphabet and Amazon [9] Analyst Targets and Valuation - Analysts estimate Nvidia's 12-month price target to be around $176, with a high of $250 and a low of $100, based on projected earnings per share (EPS) of $4.32, $5.72, and $6.44 for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [10] - Currently trading at 36 times forward earnings, a conservative multiple of 30x suggests a three-year price target of approximately $193, indicating a 25% upside from current levels [11] - In a bullish scenario, EPS could reach $7.63 by fiscal 2028, leading to a potential share price of nearly $267, representing a 73% increase [12] - In a bearish scenario, EPS is estimated at $5.11, translating to a share price of approximately $127.11, which is nearly 17% lower than current prices [13] Conclusion - Nvidia's valuation reflects significant optimism, and while there is potential for upside, the current environment may not justify the risks for all investors, making it more suitable for long-term investors with a high risk appetite [14]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is identified as the best investment choice among the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks for the second half of the year, despite its stock having increased by 800% over the past three years [1]. Group 1: Nvidia's Role in AI - Nvidia designs the essential chips, known as graphics processing units (GPUs), that are crucial for AI model training, enabling complex task handling and real-world problem-solving [3]. - The company has transitioned from primarily serving the video gaming market to capitalizing on the AI boom, with forecasts predicting the AI market will reach trillions of dollars in the coming years [5]. - Nvidia has expanded beyond GPUs, developing software and networking tools, and aims to support future humanoid robots, allowing it to benefit from all stages of AI development [6]. Group 2: Innovation and Competition - Nvidia focuses on annual innovation, committing to yearly chip updates and providing visibility into planned launches for the next three years, which helps maintain its competitive edge [7]. - Despite competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gaining market share, Nvidia's innovation and the high demand for AI products allow it to remain a leader without significant encroachment from rivals [7]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Opportunities - The U.S. export restrictions to China have impacted Nvidia, as this market accounted for 13% of its revenue last year, potentially limiting growth opportunities [8]. - However, Nvidia generates most of its revenue in the U.S. and other regions, suggesting that the export situation may not severely hinder its growth trajectory [8]. Group 4: Investment Rationale - Nvidia is considered the best overall AI investment due to its extensive presence across all stages of AI technology development [9]. - Major tech companies rely on Nvidia for their platforms, and this dependency is expected to continue as they implement AI solutions and develop humanoid robots [10]. - Nvidia's current valuation, trading at 36 times forward earnings estimates, presents significant growth potential compared to its previous valuation of over 50 times [11].

Core Insights - Nvidia insiders sold over $1 billion worth of company stock in the past year, with over $500 million in sales occurring this month as the company's share price reached an all-time high [1] - CEO Jensen Huang began selling shares this month for the first time since September, indicating a strategic move to capitalize on the surge in investor interest in artificial intelligence [2][5] - Nvidia's stock hit a record high, reclaiming its position as the world's most valuable company, driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and a "Golden Wave" forecast from analysts [3] Stock Performance - Nvidia's shares have rebounded over 60% from their closing low on April 4, when the market was affected by global tariff announcements [6][7] - The recovery in U.S. stocks, including Nvidia, is attributed to expectations of trade deals that may alleviate tariff pressures [6]

Group 1 - Nvidia insiders have sold over $1 billion in stock over the past year, indicating significant insider activity [1] - Approximately $500 million in sales occurred in the last month as the stock market reached new highs, with Nvidia's stock up more than 17% this year and 44% over the last three months [2] - CEO Jensen Huang recently sold about $15 million worth of shares as part of a larger plan to sell up to 6 million shares, totaling over $900 million [3] Group 2 - Nvidia's stock reached a record high after five consecutive days of gains, following stock sales and an annual shareholder meeting where robotics was highlighted as a major opportunity [4] - The increase in share price above $150 was a catalyst for the recent stock sales by insiders [4] - Last year, Huang sold more than $700 million in Nvidia shares as part of a prearranged plan [5]

通信周观点： 1）5 月运营商电信业务收入略有回暖，基本面有所改善。2025 年前 5 个月，电信业务收入累计完成 7488 亿元，同比 增长 1.4%，而前四个月增速为 1%，运营商主营业务收入增速有所提升，基本面回暖。2）英伟达市值重回全球第一， 股价创下历史新高。本周三英伟达股价大涨 4.3%至 154.31 美元，市值达到 3.77 万亿美元，超越微软成为全球市值最 大的公司。英伟达的股价回升反映了市场对 AI 需求持续增长的认可，此前市场对科技巨头可能削减 AI 基础设施支出 的担忧得到缓解。我们建议关注工业富联、新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信等英伟达产业链内公司，其业绩有望持续兑 现。3）中国移动发布 2025-2027 年 G.654E 光纤光缆产品集中采购项目招标公告,重视国内 DCI 需求。本期集中采购 产品为 G.654E 光纤光缆产品，预估采购规模约 2.29 万皮长公里。本次 G.654E 采购量近乎上一次采购量（2023-2024 年）的三倍。建议关注光纤光缆供应商。同时 G.654.E 光纤凭借更低的损耗特性、更宽的波段支持能力成为超长距干 线光传输系统的优选方案，我们看好国内 DCI ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential visit of US President Trump to China later this year, which may involve a delegation of CEOs, similar to his previous trip to the Middle East that resulted in over $2 trillion in deals [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Despite a pullback in A-shares, the Shanghai Composite Index remains above 3400 points, influenced by geopolitical events and Federal Reserve discussions on interest rates [3]. - The recent three-day rally in the Shanghai Composite Index is attributed to a significant drop in annualized volatility, reaching a near ten-year low of 18.2% [6]. - The current market conditions suggest that a bull market in A-shares has not yet fully materialized, with weak fundamental expectations and fragmented capital flows [10]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has expressed confidence in the economy's improvement and is focusing on supporting technology innovation and consumption [11]. - There are expectations for potential interest rate cuts, with some institutions predicting a 20 basis point reduction in the second half of the year [11]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector saw the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 372.22 billion yuan, followed by the computer and electronics sectors [26]. - The current industry cycle indicates that textiles, light manufacturing, and chemicals are in a recession phase, while computer, communication, and defense industries are expanding [30]. - The agricultural, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors are identified as having high growth potential with low valuations, warranting further research [31]. Group 4: Notable Developments - Neuralink, a company under Elon Musk, has announced plans for brain-computer interface advancements, aiming for human-AI connectivity by 2028 [15]. - Tesla has successfully demonstrated fully autonomous delivery of a Model Y vehicle to a customer, marking a significant milestone in self-driving technology [16]. - The Chinese government is pushing for advancements in domestic chip manufacturing, with major investment funds focusing on overcoming technological barriers [17].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors with strong growth certainty in the first half of the year, particularly AI-PCB, computing hardware, semiconductor self-sufficiency, the Apple supply chain, and AI-driven industries [4][34]. Core Insights - The upcoming release of Grok 4 is anticipated to exceed expectations for Q2 performance, with significant advancements expected in code generation and understanding [1]. - The rapid development of ASIC chips by companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta is expected to drive strong demand for AI-PCB, with a projected increase in the number of ASIC chips exceeding 7 million by 2026 [1]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust upward trend, with specific segments such as storage chips and AI-PCB showing promising growth [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights the strong performance of AI-PCB companies, with many experiencing full production and sales, leading to high growth expectations for Q2 and Q3 [1][4]. - The semiconductor materials and components sectors are also expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI-related products [4][22]. 2. Key Segments 2.1 Consumer Electronics - Xiaomi has launched its first AI glasses, with various pricing tiers, indicating a growing market for AI-integrated consumer products [5][6]. 2.2 PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by demand from home appliances, automotive, and consumer electronics, with expectations for substantial growth in Q2 [8]. 2.3 Components - The demand for components such as MLCCs and inductors is expected to rise due to upgrades in AI devices, with a notable increase in usage and pricing [20]. 2.4 IC Design - The storage segment is projected to see price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [22][25]. 2.5 Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic production and self-sufficiency due to geopolitical factors [26][30]. 3. Company Focus - Companies such as 生益科技, 胜宏科技, and others are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the AI-PCB and computing hardware demand [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers like 北方华创 and 中微公司 in the context of increasing self-sufficiency [37][40].