（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 引 言 2025年的A股市场，在经历了三年深度调整后，迎来了一轮颇具特色的以科技创新为主线的结构性行 情。但近期，美股以英伟达为代表的AI核心资产在高位剧烈震荡：一边是业绩和收入指引仍在上 调，一边是股价连续回调、波动加大，海外资本市场开始密集讨论"AI泡沫"相关话题。 同时，国内投资者也面临类似困惑：A股市场的科技板块也出现了明显的调整。那么，当前的中美科 技行情，是产业长期空间推动下的价值重估，还是新一轮泡沫化周期的中段？本轮 A股泛科技的主线 行情还会如何演绎？ 本文将围绕这些核心问题展开深入剖析，试图从资金驱动的底层逻辑出发，系 统解析本轮行情的底层驱动逻辑、资金行为特征，并对后续市场空间进行展望。 风险偏好重估： 本轮行情的底层驱动逻辑 本轮行情核心驱动的独特之处在于：盈利端增速放缓但估值中枢抬升，流动性维持温和宽松但非决定性 力量，真正推动行情的是风险偏好层面的深刻变化。 另外，从流动性端看，2024年以来央行货币政策基调保持稳健偏松，但历史经验表明，流动性充裕只是 股市上涨的必要条件而非充分条件——2018年四次降准市场仍下跌，2015 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the unpredictable impact of President Trump's trade policies on global equity markets, highlighting the volatility and rapid changes in market sentiment driven by tariff announcements and reversals [1][11]. Trade Policy Developments - In November 2025, President Trump announced a rollback of tariffs on over 200 food and agricultural products, effective retroactively from November 13-14, 2025, in response to rising food-at-home inflation of 2.7% year-on-year in September 2025 [2][3]. - The US lifted 50% reciprocal tariffs on various Indian agricultural products, expected to inject nearly $1 billion into Indian exporters, coinciding with a decline in India's exports to the US by 8.6% year-on-year in October [4]. Market Reactions - Arabica coffee futures dropped to a 7-week low following the tariff relief, while retail coffee prices had previously surged by 40% in 2025 [3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 878.82 points (1.90% drop) and the NASDAQ declined by 3.56% (down 820.20 points) in response to threats of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods [5][6]. Sector-Specific Impacts - The pharmaceutical industry faced a 100% tariff on imported products, with European companies like Bayer experiencing a 9.9% slump in shares due to tariff threats [7]. - A proposed 50% tariff on copper imports led to a 1.72% decline in the Nifty Metal Index, indicating the broad impact of tariffs across various commodities [8]. Broader Market Trends - Major stock indexes experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq down 2.2% and the S&P 500 falling 1.6% on November 20, 2025, despite earlier gains [10]. - The overall market sentiment reflects a mix of optimism and despair, heavily influenced by the administration's unpredictable trade policies [11].

最近，美国科技巨头突然掀起发债热潮，亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta、甲骨文四家公司的发行 量，就已接近900亿美元。有外媒统计，美国企业今年已发行超2000亿美元公司债券，用于资助人工智 能相关基础设施项目。这引发了市场能否消化如此庞大供应的疑问，同时也加剧了人们对AI相关支出 的日益增长的担忧。 上述担忧，也"空袭"了美股市场，触发美股自11月初以来的大幅回调。数据显示，11月至今，以科技股 为主的纳斯达克指数跌幅超过6%，标普500指数、道指分别下跌3.47%、2.77%。另外，美国科技七巨头 指数下跌5.73%，费城半导体指数大跌超11%。 大型科技公司正竞相建设支持AI的数据中心，并为此积极转向债务市场融资。这对通常依赖现金进行 投资的硅谷公司而言是一个重大转变。 据路透社对公开数据的计算，自9月以来，四大主要云计算和AI平台公司（被称为超大规模企业）的公 共债券发行量已接近900亿美元。其中，谷歌母公司Alphabet发行250亿美元，Meta发行300亿美元，甲 骨文发行180亿美元，以及最近亚马逊发行150亿美元。五大巨头中，仅微软未在近期涉足债券市场。 个股方面，仅11月14日单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [4] Core Views - The report indicates that most industries are under pressure, but earnings forecasts are improving [4] - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.7% [1] - There is a notable divergence in performance among sectors, with media and entertainment, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods showing positive trends, while software and services, semiconductors, and retail sectors faced significant declines [1][2] Summary by Sections 2.1 Investment Returns - The energy sector saw a decline of 3.1% this week, while the healthcare sector increased by 1.9% [14] - The media and entertainment sector outperformed with a return of 3.7% [14] - The overall performance of the S&P 500 components was down by 1.7% [14] 2.2 Fund Flows - The estimated net fund flow for the S&P 500 was -15.403 billion USD this week, indicating significant outflows [16] - The media and entertainment sector had a net inflow of 0.896 billion USD, while the semiconductor sector faced a substantial outflow of -7.798 billion USD [16][2] 2.3 Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the S&P 500 components was adjusted upward by 0.9% this week, following a 0.3% increase the previous week [3] - The semiconductor sector saw a notable EPS increase of 6.2%, while the retail sector's forecast was downgraded by 0.4% [3][17] 2.4 Valuation Levels - The report does not provide specific valuation levels but indicates a general trend of improving earnings forecasts across various sectors [19]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Unity and Epic Games announced a strategic partnership to create an open and interoperable ecosystem for game engines, allowing developers to publish Unity games on the Fortnite platform with over 500 million registered accounts, enhancing user reach and commercialization efficiency [2][21] - NVIDIA's quarterly performance exceeded expectations, with data center revenue growing by 289% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand for AI infrastructure [3][22] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors, driven by consumption policies and technological empowerment [3][22] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" with 134.67 million yuan (42.9% market share), "Wild Era" with 75.67 million yuan (24.1%), and "Now You See Me 3" with 55.44 million yuan (17.7%) [23][24] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Teamfight Tactics," "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin," and "Honor of Kings," while the top three Android games are "Heart Town," "Sword and Magic Legend," and "My Leisure Time" [25] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcasting index are "Tang Dynasty Ghost Stories: Chang'an," "Four Happiness," and "Phoenix Platform," with indices of 85.5, 82.4, and 81.8 respectively [26][27] Variety Shows & Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3" with a broadcasting index of 82.4, followed by "Wonderful Night Season 2" and "Flowers and Youth Together" [28][29] - The top three animated shows by viewership index are "Xian Ni" with 212.8, "Happy Hammer" with 191.6, and "Swallowing the Starry Sky" with 187.2 [30]

Market Overview - The US stock market finished higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.0%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 493 points (1.1%), and the Nasdaq composite rising 0.9% [1][12] - The S&P 500 is now just 4.2% below its record, despite experiencing significant volatility throughout the week [2] Investor Sentiment - Investors are grappling with sharp swings in stock prices, reminiscent of the sell-off in April, raising concerns about whether prices for high-profile stocks like Nvidia and Bitcoin have become too inflated [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions is contributing to market volatility, with some officials advocating against further cuts due to persistent inflation [5] Company Performance - Nvidia's stock experienced significant fluctuations, dropping 4.3% before closing down 1%, despite a strong profit report [8][11] - Retailers like Gap and Ross Stores saw substantial gains, with Gap jumping 8.2% and Ross Stores rising 8.4% after reporting better-than-expected profits [11][12] - Homebuilders also performed well, with D.R. Horton up 6.8%, Lennar rising 5.9%, and PulteGroup gaining 5.2%, driven by hopes of lower mortgage rates [12] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000 before recovering to around $85,000, down from nearly $125,000 last month [9] Market Dynamics - Despite the volatility, nearly 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 rose, indicating that the overall market strength may be overshadowed by the performance of large tech stocks [10] - The bond market reacted positively to expectations of potential interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a December cut from 39% to nearly 72% [13]

Fears about the artificial intelligence boom turning into an overblown bubble have diminished for now, thanks to a stellar earnings report from Nvidia that illustrated why its indispensable chips transformed it into the world’s most valuable company.But that doesn’t mean the spectre of an AI bubble won’t return in the months and years ahead as Big Tech gears up to spend trillions of dollars more on a technology the industry’s leaders believe will determine the winners and losers during the next wave of inno ...

通信周观点： 海外链看，北美 AI 链持续景气。1）英伟达发布财报，业绩超预期。英伟达发布 FY26Q3 财报，当季录得营收 570 亿 美元，YoY+62%，QoQ+22%，并指引 FY26Q4 营收 650 亿美元，均高于市场预期；毛利率进一步提升，Q3 毛利率为 73.6%， 并指引 Q4 毛利率为 74.8%。黄仁勋在电话会上明确回击"AI 泡沫论""AI 闭环经济论"，公司指出公司至 2026 年底 具有 5000 亿美元订单能见度，且云服务商 GPU 利用率已经饱和。此外，英伟达宣布正在与 OpenAI 建立战略合作伙伴 关系，协助其建设和部署至少 10 吉瓦的 AI 数据中心。我们认为英伟达财报持续超预期说明 AI 叙事仍未被证伪，看 好英伟达链上相关标的。2）谷歌发布 Gemini 3 和 Nano Banana Pro 等系列模型。谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3 并于发布 首日在多个产品中投入使用。Gemini 3 在多个行业排行榜上处于领先地位，并在 Humanity's Last Exam 基准测试中 获得 37.5%的最高分。此外，谷歌正式推出了全新图像生成与编辑模型 Nano Ban ...

上周美股持续承压，三大股指最大回撤一度超过5%，技术面发出强烈短期看空信号。 这种市场紧张情绪从一个月期隐含波动率攀升可见一斑，恐慌指数VIX触及近七个月高位。值得关注的 是，即使英伟达发布强劲财报且CEO黄仁勋发表乐观评论，但未能持续扭转负面势头。投资者仍对AI 龙头企业的上涨行情及其超出当前财务与生产能力的投资公告存疑。虽然在纽约联储主席威廉姆斯释放 鸽派信号后，市场有所企稳，外界将继续权衡货币政策前景，若AI相关担忧持续发酵，风险资产恐难 实现有意义的反弹。 降息预期出现剧烈波动，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）美联储观察工具数据显示，市场预期美联储联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）12月降息25个基点的概率从此前的39%升至约70%。 预期转变源于纽约联储主席威廉姆斯（John Williams）的表态。作为美联储主席鲍威尔的亲密盟友，他 表示政策制定者有空间进一步降息，以支持正在降温的就业市场。"我认为当前货币政策处于温和限制 性区间，尽管相比近期行动前有所缓和，"威廉姆斯称，"因此，我仍认为近期有进一步调整联邦基金利 率目标区间的空间，使政策立场更接近中性水平，从而维持实现两大政策目标的平衡。" 施瓦茨向 ...

英伟达CEO黄仁勋表示，Blackwell芯片销量远超预期，云端GPU已售罄。 近日美国证券交易委员会(SEC)公布的最新13F持仓文件显示，有"硅谷风投教父"之称的知名投资人彼得 ·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）旗下的基金Thiel Macro Fund第三季度出售了约53.7万股英伟达股票，占其投资组合 的近40%。截至9月30日，该机构不再持有英伟达股份。按英伟达第三季度平均股价计算，该基金此次 减持套现金额约1亿美元。 点评:Thiel Macro Fund清仓英伟达是在第三季度，但近日市场上关于AI泡沫依然有激烈讨论。对AI泡沫 的担忧，一大原因是科技巨头与AI有关的资本开支高企，支出能否转化为实际收益具有不确定性。第 三季度，微软的资本支出达到349亿美元，同比增长79%;亚马逊的现金资本支出342亿美元，同比增长 61%;谷歌资本支出总额达到240亿美元。 桥水创始人达利欧:AI真正的拐点还没来 当地时间11月20日，桥水基金创始人达利欧表示，尽管人工智能相关投资正在推动市场形成泡沫，但还 没看到刺破泡沫的关键因素，投资者也不需要立刻退出。达利欧表示，估值偏高并不等同于短期见顶， 真正的拐点往往 ...