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Core Insights - Nvidia has significantly benefited from the rise of artificial intelligence, leading to remarkable growth in its business performance [1] Company Summary - Nvidia's stock has surged due to its pivotal role in the AI sector, showcasing the company's strong market position and innovative capabilities [1] Industry Summary - The AI industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with companies like Nvidia at the forefront, capitalizing on the increasing demand for AI technologies and solutions [1]

The shares of Nvidia and the technology sector as a whole are not really far from all-time highs despite the recent pullback. At the same time, we have begun to see some red flags suggestingInvest Heroes LLC is a CIS-based research firm founded in 2018. Since then, we provide equity and fixed income research services which become more and more well-known locally among both professional investors and private clients. Here’s what we do: - Cover top 120+ Russian, US and Chinese stocks - Cover 200+ Russian bond ...

Hey guys, it's the holiday season, the best time of the year. Mommy and dad bought all kinds of nice things for you guys. We bought you guys some toys an avocado a lobster and an ice cream cone.And each one of you is something really special. Ammo. A Jetson Nano. A Jetson Nano.It's got 8 GB of memory tops of computational power. It runs all kinds of models. And for Christmas Kuba, for Christmas, mommy and daddy got you a Jetson Orin.I know. It's incredible. 67 trillion operations per second.64 GB. You could ...

Core Viewpoint - The narrative that AMD is the next Nvidia is misleading, as current financial metrics suggest AMD is overvalued compared to Nvidia [1][4]. Valuation Comparison - Nvidia trades at 38 times consensus earnings with a revenue growth rate exceeding 65%, while AMD trades at 55 times consensus 2025 earnings with a revenue growth rate of 32% [4]. - AMD's pricing is compared to a "champagne price for a beer budget," indicating that investors are paying a premium for AMD without corresponding performance [4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - The argument that AMD suffers from supply constraints is debunked; AMD's lower pricing indicates a demand issue rather than a supply problem [7]. - AMD's profit margins are significantly lower than Nvidia's, with AMD retaining about 24 cents per dollar compared to Nvidia's 65 cents, reflecting their different market positions [8]. Strategic Positioning - AMD should be viewed as a cost-effective alternative in the AI market rather than a direct competitor to Nvidia [9]. - The shift from AI training to inference is highlighted, where cost efficiency becomes crucial, making AMD's offerings more attractive for companies looking to reduce expenses [11][16]. Memory Capacity Advantage - AMD's MI300X chip offers a significant memory advantage, allowing companies to run large AI models on a single chip, which can lower total costs [10][13]. - This memory capacity is particularly relevant as companies transition from high-cost training to more cost-effective inference operations [11]. Market Dynamics - Big Tech companies are incentivizing AMD's survival to maintain competitive pressure on Nvidia, ensuring that they have an alternative supplier to mitigate Nvidia's pricing power [15]. - The need for a duopoly in the market is emphasized, as companies are not just investing in AMD's technology but also in the necessity of having multiple suppliers [15]. Conclusion - The recommendation is to invest in AMD not for its potential to outperform Nvidia but for its role as a cost-effective solution in the evolving AI landscape [16].

行情回顾 美元指数本周高位震荡后连跌，受弱于预期的零售数据和市场强化的美联储降息预期影响，周内跌破100关口，整体呈回落态势并面临自7月以来最差单周表 现。截至发稿，美元指数报99.70。美债收益率普遍整体下行，10年期收益率一度跌破4%，显示利率前景驱动的避险需求持续升温。 周五，全球最大的衍生品交易所芝商所（CME）因数据中心冷却系统故障，期货和期权交易一度暂停。此次停摆波及美国原油、汽油、棕榈油、美国国债 和标普500指数期货等合约，甚至影响到外汇交易平台EBS，涉及合约价值高达数万亿美元。 此次故障严重影响了美国国债期货交易，现货债券交易稀疏，交易员缺乏对冲手段。尽管伦敦开盘后，交易员可以借道掉期市场对冲，但对整体市场仍是重 创。商品交易员焦头烂额，尤其是要处理当天即将到期的美国汽油和柴油期货基准交割问题。 现货黄金整体上扬，周初受降息预期推动大幅拉升，盘中一度上涨近100美元，其后虽有震荡，但整体维持在近两周高位附近。白银涨势更强，周中大幅走 高，在风险偏好改善背景下连涨多日。截至发稿，现货金银分别报4175美元/盎司和53.92美元/盎司。 非美货币方面，因美元走势疲弱，欧元、英镑、日元、澳元兑美 ...

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is driving a significant investment cycle, with global investment expected to exceed $1.4 trillion this year, indicating a long-term growth engine rather than a passing trend [3][4][16] - Major companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Apple are making substantial capital commitments to AI, which will reshape the economy for years to come [5][6] Investment Landscape - AI stocks are experiencing renewed volatility due to shifting sentiment and concerns about valuations, but this presents opportunities for disciplined investors [2][7][11] - Historical patterns show that early stages of technology cycles often involve volatility, which can lead to significant long-term gains for investors who navigate the market effectively [8][9][16] Market Dynamics - The current capital cycle impacts various sectors, including cloud computing, semiconductor manufacturing, and enterprise software, driven by the demand for increased compute power [4][5] - Despite volatility, demand for AI technology remains robust, and the underlying trends indicate a strong future for AI investments [9][16] Investment Strategies - Investors can benefit from identifying companies with strong fundamentals and improving earnings estimates, particularly during market pullbacks [12][14] - Utilizing tools like the Zacks Rank and technical analysis can help investors spot turning points and capitalize on opportunities in the AI sector [13][14][17] Future Outlook - The AI cycle is still in its early stages, with massive spending and rapid innovation expected to continue, creating attractive entry points for savvy investors [16][19] - Companies that are well-positioned in the AI landscape are likely to trade at more favorable valuations, enhancing the potential for significant returns [11][12]

几乎是在一夜之间，谷歌TPU的大名人尽皆知。 "谷歌干翻英伟达"的说法从华尔街传播到了全世界，导致英伟达不得不主动回应，表示自己的GPU目前为止依然遥遥领先。 美银在最新发布的研究报告中力挺英伟达。美银承认英伟达的市场份额将从85%回落到75%左右，但份额变化将逐步发生。短期内，供应链紧张及英伟达 的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。 美银判断谷歌的TPU加剧了AI加速器领域的竞争，但考虑到行业整体处于增长浪潮中，维持英伟达、博通、AMD"买入"投资评级。 谷歌近十年来一直在研发定制化TPU，据其披露，Gemini2和Gemini3模型的训练"100%依赖TPU"，而其公共云业务主要使用英伟达GPU。 近期有消息称，谷歌或于2026年向Meta出租TPU，并可能在2027年推进本地部署(Meta及其他潜在客户)。尽管两家公司尚未对此类交易发表官方评论，但 若消息属实，将加剧Meta现有GPU供应商(英伟达、超微)的竞争压力。 市场份额演变逻辑 大语言模型竞争是一场马拉松 美银在研报中写道：AI行业近期动作频频，谷歌推出Gemini3模型后，Anthropic紧接着低调发布Claude Opus4.5 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to ease monetary policy, with the main debate focusing on the timing and pace of this easing [1][2][4] - Concerns about inflation persist, as it remains above the 2% target, but there is a consensus that the neutral rate is below current levels [2][12] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a potential need for rate cuts to support valuations, especially given the current high rates relative to economic growth [11][14] Group 2: AI Trade and Market Sentiment - There has been a significant reset in market sentiment over the past month, influenced by large deals and the AI infrastructure buildout projected to reach $3 to $4 trillion by 2030 [5][6] - Companies like Nvidia and Applied Materials are seen as attractive investment opportunities due to their roles in the AI infrastructure [7][9] - The economic profit within the technology sector is shifting from software to infrastructure, indicating a broader investment opportunity beyond the major tech companies [8][9] Group 3: Employment and Economic Growth - The labor market is showing signs of slowdown, with many individuals living paycheck to paycheck, which raises concerns about sustaining economic growth [12][13] - Employment growth is primarily observed in low-wage service sectors, which does not provide a strong foundation for broader economic expansion [14] - The top 10% of the population holds a significant portion of stock market wealth, highlighting income inequality and its potential impact on consumer spending [12]

It's convenient to compare things to the. com days, but if you take the valuations of the top three stocks in the dot era in the S&P 500 and they're waiting and compare it to the top three now, they were trading at a 62 times forward earnings versus 31 times. So, if this is the bubble, it still hasn't it's not done inflating yet.I just don't think we're there. You're seeing tremendous earnings growth underpinning this AI trend that we didn't see during the dotcom days. Lou, what do you make about this recen ...