2026.01. 16 本文字数：1219，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑栩彤 围绕人工智能数据中心对大宗商品需求的影响，一篇来自英伟达（NVIDIA）的技术博客文章近日引 发市场争议，并牵出一桩关于"数量级错误"的风波。 争议源于英伟达去年5月发布的一篇介绍数据中心供电架构演进的技术文章。该文以传统 54V 伏直 流供电系统为例称，单个 1 兆瓦（MW）机架由于电流巨大，仅机架内部的铜母排就可能需要约 200 千克铜。文章进一步推演称，如果扩展到1吉瓦（GW）级别的数据中心，这一架构"可能需要 高达 half a million tons of copper（50 万吨铜）"。 这一说法随后被咨询机构 Thunder Said Energy 指出存在明显的单位或数量级错误。该机构指 出，按照英伟达文中自身给出的假设，1吉瓦约相当于1000个1兆瓦机架，200公斤乘以1000的结 果应为200000公斤，即约200吨，而不是50万吨。Thunder Said Energy 认为，更合理的解释 是，原文很可能想表达的是 "half a million pounds（约 226 吨）"，却被误写成了" ...

杰富瑞：将英伟达(NVDA.O)目标价从250美元上调至275美元。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

半导体ETF南方(159325)紧密跟踪中证半导体行业精选指数，中证半导体行业精选指数从半导体行业中 选取50只规模较大、盈利能力较好、研发投入较高且具备一定成长潜力的上市公司证券作为指数样本， 反映半导体行业内兼具代表性与可投资性的上市公司证券的整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为寒武 纪、中芯国际、海光信息、北方华创、兆易创新、澜起科技、中微公司、豪威集团、拓荆科技、紫光国 微。 消息面上，中外联合团队在新型半导体材料领域取得重要进展，研究团队首次在二维离子型软晶格材料 中，实现了面内可编程、原子级平整的"马赛克"式异质结的可控构筑，为未来高性能发光和集成器件的 研发开辟了全新路径。相关成果于1月15日在线发表于国际权威学术期刊《自然》。 截至2026年1月16日午间收盘，半导体ETF南方(159325)上涨2.15%， 冲击3连涨，换手12.24%，成交 3483.09万元，市场交投活跃。跟踪指数中证半导体行业精选指数成分股长电科技上涨10.00%，峰岹科 技上涨9.59%，臻镭科技上涨8.05%，长电科技涨停，中科飞测，兆易创新等个股跟涨。 华鑫证券最新研报显示，台积电2025年第四季度营收同比增长约20 ...

IT之家 1 月 16 日消息，据智通财经 1 月 14 日报道，英伟达曾在 2025 年 5 月的一篇技术博客中谈到，传统架构中，单个一兆瓦机架需要重达 200 公斤的铜 母线，单个一吉瓦的机架则需要高达 50 万吨的铜。 ▲ 图源智通财经 麦肯锡此前预计，2030 年全球数据中心的总容量需求将达到 219 吉瓦，也就意味着该领域建设需要超过 1 亿吨的铜，而全球铜储量截至去年底仅 9.8 亿吨。 标普预测则认为到 2030 年，全球将每年新增 30 吉瓦容量的数据中心。按英伟达论文的表述，这相当于 1500 万吨的铜需求，而去年的铜矿产量也不过 2863 万吨。不少媒体都引用英伟达的估计来证明传统数据中心铜需求的不可持续。 然而最新的调查发现，英伟达报告可能出现了一个非常低级的错误，导致铜缺口被过分高估。咨询公司 Thunder Said Energy 表示，一兆瓦的机架需要 200 公斤的铜，而一吉瓦相当于 1000 兆瓦，简单换算可知一吉瓦的机架应该需要 200 吨的铜母线，而不是论文中的 50 万吨。 Thunder Said Energy 认为可能是英伟达的单位换算出错了，实际上应该为 50 万磅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is currently the most valuable stock globally with a market cap of $4.5 trillion, primarily due to its dominance in the AI chip market, but it may soon be overtaken by Alphabet, which is gaining traction in AI and is considered undervalued [2][3][12] Nvidia - Nvidia's market cap stands at $4.5 trillion, and its stock has seen a recent increase of 2.06% [2][8] - The company reported a 62% increase in sales for the October quarter, showcasing its strong growth [7] - Nvidia's gross margin is 70.05%, and it has a dividend yield of 0.02% [8] - The stock is trading at an estimated 24 times its future earnings, which is based on optimistic analyst projections [9] Alphabet - Alphabet's market cap is approximately $4 trillion, and its stock has risen over 70% in the past year, yet it is still considered undervalued compared to Nvidia [5][12] - The company has developed a competitive chatbot named Gemini, which is gaining recognition in the AI space [5][4] - Alphabet's gross margin is 59.18%, and it offers a higher dividend yield of 0.25% [11] - The stock is trading at around 30 times its forward earnings, indicating a higher valuation compared to Nvidia [9] Comparative Analysis - Alphabet is viewed as a safer investment due to its diversified business model, which may make it less vulnerable to market fluctuations compared to Nvidia [10][12] - If Alphabet's stock had not been underestimated in terms of its AI opportunities, it could have already surpassed Nvidia in market value [12] - The potential for Alphabet to overtake Nvidia as the most valuable company is anticipated as the year progresses [12]

在澄清数量级问题后，AI数据中心对铜需求的实际影响也被重新评估。 截至目前，英伟达尚未就上述数字修改发布任何公开说明或更正声明，也未披露文章的版本更新记录。英伟达方面亦未回应相关置评请求。 在澄清数量级问题后，AI 数据中心对铜需求的实际影响也被重新评估。国金证券财富产品中心测算显示，即便按照麦肯锡预测，到 2030 年全球数据中心 总装机容量达到约 219 吉瓦，按照英伟达更正后的数据测算，对应的供电系统铜用量规模也仅在数万吨量级，约为4.4万吨，占当前全球年铜年产量（约 2860多万吨）的比重不足 0.2%。而按照英伟达未更正前的旧数据测算，在2030年全球数据中心容量达219吉瓦的情况下，需要铜超1亿吨。 从供需基本面看，机构普遍认为，AI 数据中心本身并不足以单独改写铜市场格局。高盛在去年12月发布的报告中指出，当前全球铜现货市场并未出现明 显供应紧张，并预计 2026 年可能出现小幅过剩，其对 2026 年上半年铜价的均价预测约为每吨 10710 美元。 围绕人工智能数据中心对大宗商品需求的影响，一篇来自英伟达（NVIDIA）的技术博客文章近日引发市场争议，并牵出一桩关于"数量级错误"的风波。 争议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [3] Core Insights - The global AI computing revolution is accelerating, with a significant increase in demand for intelligent computing power, projected to exceed 16 ZFlops by 2030, with intelligent computing accounting for over 90% of this demand [6][14] - NVIDIA leads the market with a nearly 90% share in AI server GPUs, while companies like Broadcom and AMD are also making significant strides in the ASIC chip market [6][19] - The competition in the AI computing ecosystem is intensifying, with a shift from general-purpose to specialized chips, driving a trend towards customized solutions [8][12] Summary by Sections Global AI Computing Revolution - The demand for intelligent computing is rapidly growing, with the global computing power expected to reach 16 ZFlops by 2030, where intelligent computing will dominate [14] - NVIDIA's GPU market share is approximately 90%, with significant growth in AI chip sales projected for the coming years [19] NVIDIA's Data Center Business - NVIDIA has built a comprehensive computing infrastructure, investing over 582 billion in R&D, leading to innovations across chips, systems, and software [49] - The introduction of the Blackwell architecture has significantly enhanced performance, supporting models with up to 100 trillion parameters [53] Broadcom's Rise - Broadcom focuses on ASIC chips, holding a 55%-60% market share in the ASIC market, establishing long-term partnerships with major cloud service providers [43] - The company's AI business revenue reached 20 billion, growing by 65% year-on-year [6] Intensifying Competition in the AI Ecosystem - The AI market is shifting towards specialized chips, with major cloud providers like Google and Amazon developing their own chips to reduce dependency on external suppliers [8][12] - AMD is enhancing its ecosystem, with plans to release new chip series that promise significant performance improvements [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on A-share companies such as Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Inspur, as well as U.S. companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD, as potential investment opportunities in the evolving AI computing landscape [6][8]

Group 1: Robotics Sector - The robotics concept stocks experienced a broad increase, with notable gains from companies like XAG (02590) up 5.93%, Yunji (02670) up 5.10%, and Blues Technology (06613) up 4.82%. According to an Omdia report, the global annual installation of humanoid robots is expected to add approximately 16,000 units by 2025, with Zhiyuan Robotics leading the market in installations [1][2] - Tianyue Advanced (02631) surged over 15.8% as a report from Zheshang Securities highlighted its active expansion into silicon carbide applications in emerging fields, indicating long-term growth potential [1] - WeRide (00800) rose over 3.4% as it announced that its global Robotaxi fleet will reach 1,000 vehicles by January 12, 2026, with successful commercial operations in cities like Guangzhou, Beijing, and Abu Dhabi [1] - Cao Cao Mobility (02643) increased nearly 8% following its announcement of two strategic acquisitions, including a full acquisition of Weixing Technology and plans to acquire Geely Business Travel [1] Group 2: Energy and Materials Sector - Oil and gas stocks saw significant declines, with Shandong Molong (00568) dropping over 8.1% due to a sharp decrease in international oil prices, with Brent crude futures falling by $2.76 or 4.15% to $63.76 per barrel [2] - Innovation Industry (02788) rose nearly 8% as aluminum prices have surged significantly since 2026, with Huatai Securities indicating that the overall supply-demand tightness will continue, supporting a long-term profit increase in the aluminum sector [2] Group 3: Aerospace and Technology Sector - The commercial aerospace sector showed signs of recovery, with companies like Asia Pacific Satellite (01045) and JunDa Co. (02865) both rising by 5.02%. This follows Elon Musk's announcement that SpaceX aims to increase Starship launch frequency to over once per hour within three years [2] - Weichai Power (02338) increased over 4.9% as it announced advancements in solid-state battery research and strong demand for its power generation products [3] - Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) rose over 6.2% as a Counterpoint Research report indicated that the memory market has entered a "super bull market," surpassing historical highs from 2018 [4] Group 4: US Market Highlights - Nuclear power stocks strengthened, with Talen Energy (TLN.US) up 11.8% and Vistra Energy (VST.US) up 6.63%, following news of a new bipartisan bill proposing a $2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve to secure key minerals domestically [5] - Morgan Stanley (MS.US) rose 5.78% after reporting Q4 revenue growth of 10% to $17.89 billion, exceeding market expectations [5] - The weight loss drug sector faced pressure, with Eli Lilly (LLY.US) down 3.76% as its weight loss drug was placed under FDA review, delaying a decision until April 2026 [6] - Dell Technologies (DELL.US) increased by 0.82% as Omdia reported a significant recovery in the global PC market, with a projected 9.2% increase in total shipments for 2025 [8]

Investment Opportunities - The market is currently at all-time highs, but there are still significant investment opportunities available [1] - Three stocks are highlighted as excellent buys for 2026: Nvidia, MercadoLibre, and The Trade Desk, each representing different market approaches [2] Nvidia - Nvidia is the world's largest company by market capitalization, primarily due to its leading graphics processing units (GPUs) that support artificial intelligence workloads [3] - The company has a market cap of $4.5 trillion, with a current stock price of $186.92 and a gross margin of 70.05% [4][5] - Analysts project a remarkable 50% revenue growth for Nvidia in fiscal year 2027, driven by increased AI spending and the launch of its new architecture, Rubin [6] MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre is often referred to as the "Amazon of Latin America," with a strong e-commerce platform and logistics network enabling rapid delivery [7] - The company has a market cap of $107 billion, with a current stock price of $2098.85 and a gross margin of 45.14% [8][9] - MercadoLibre has built a digital payment infrastructure from scratch, giving it a competitive edge in two significant growth areas, and the stock is currently down nearly 20% from its all-time high, presenting a buying opportunity [9][10] The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk operates an ad technology platform that connects ad buyers with optimal ad placements, excluding major platforms like Facebook and Google [11] - Despite facing challenges with its new AI-powered ad platform, The Trade Desk has retained 95% of its customer base and achieved 18% growth, although this is the lowest growth rate in its history [12][14] - The company is expected to grow at an above-average pace, with a forward earnings price of 18 times, compared to the S&P 500's 22.4 times, making it an attractive investment opportunity [14][15]

格隆汇1月16日｜针对外界质疑"英伟达此前提出的铜需求预期值存在错误"，英伟达已悄然将其一篇技 术论文中有关数据中心铜需求量数据进行了改正。据英伟达官网去年刊登的一份技术论文指出，一个容 量在一吉瓦的传统数据中心机架，需要高达50万吨铜母线，这引起外界对未来铜的供需形势大为担忧。 不过，近期有媒体指出，该论文的结论存在明显的计算错误，实际上一吉瓦数据中心仅需要200多吨 铜，差不多相当于50万磅，可能是该论文用错了单位。而英伟达目前已经修正了这一错误，将论文中的 50万吨修正为200吨，仅为原论文表述"50万吨"的0.04%。 这也意味着数据中心铜需求预期需要被大幅调低，此前外界一些关于数据中心将导致铜陷入严重短缺的 预期过于激进。不过，新能源、人工智能以及建筑领域对铜的需求回升仍可能将继续支持铜市场的繁 荣。 格隆汇1月16日｜针对外界质疑"英伟达此前提出的铜需求预期值存在错误"，英伟达已悄然将其一篇技 术论文中有关数据中心铜需求量数据进行了改正。据英伟达官网去年刊登的一份技术论文指出，一个容 量在一吉瓦的传统数据中心机架，需要高达50万吨铜母线，这引起外界对未来铜的供需形势大为担忧。 不过，近期有媒体指出 ...