交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 今日焦点 | 英伟达 | | NVDA US | | --- | --- | --- | | 业绩和指引均超预期，可持续性和供应链依然 | | 评级: 买入 | | 是焦点 | | | | 收盘价: 美元 180.64 | 目标价: 美元 245.00 | 潜在涨幅: +35.6% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 收入指引超预期，GB300 占超三分之二 Blackwell 收入：FY3Q26 营收 /Non-GAAP（下同）EPS 分别 570 亿/1.30 美元，均超市场/我们预期，毛 利率 73.6%符合预期。管理层指引 FY4Q26 收入 650 亿美元（+/-2%）， 远超市场/我们预期。管理层指引 FY4Q26 毛利率 75%（+/- 50bps），这 与年初指引一致。 重申 CY25/26 Blackwell/Rubin 或贡献 5,000 亿美元，毛利率或继续保持 75%左右：我们认为，短期的指引超预期固然对股价有正面作用，但投 资者主要关注点依然在 CY26 以及之后 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2025全球超级计算大会(SC25)于上周在美国圣路易斯举行。参会者普遍认为，对内 存——尤其是闪存(Flash Memory)和DRAM(动态随机存取存储器)——的高需求将持续推高价格。 Wedbush分析师则表示，此次大会几乎被人工智能(AI)与高性能计算(HPC)相关的展示所主导，讨论也 围绕NAND和DRAM的供应短缺展开，而这正导致内存价格飙升。 Matt Bryson表示："英伟达再次成为超级计算系统插槽的单一领先供应商，占据了30个GPU插槽以及6个 CPU插槽。英特尔共获得了25个插槽(全部为CPU)，而AMD获得了18个插槽(14个CPU和4个GPU)。" Wedbush对英特尔的评级为"中性"，而AMD与英伟达均被评为"跑赢大盘"。 据悉，SK海力士、三星、美光科技(MU.US)是DRAM的主要市场份额持有者。NAND产量最高的制造商 包括三星、SK海力士、西部数据(WDC.US)、英特尔(INTC.US)以及美光科技。 Wedbush还特别强调了大会上对量子计算兴趣的进一步提升。Matt Bryson指出："尽管目前量子计算领 域的大部分活动仍集中在支持大型实验室或大 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia reported its Q3 2025 earnings with revenue and net profit exceeding expectations, projecting $500 billion revenue visibility from future Blackwell and Rubin chips [1] - Despite Nvidia's strong performance, the AI sector in the US stock market did not recover, with related stocks experiencing a collective decline the following day [1] - The cooling of the AI sector is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over OpenAI's solvency and its substantial collaborations with cloud providers and chip companies exceeding current revenues [3] Group 2 - Nvidia faces challenges such as rising inventory levels and deferred revenue models, raising investor concerns about potential revenue gaps if future orders slow down [3] - Some analysts argue that the increase in inventory is a strategic move to ensure capacity and address supply chain competition [3] - Google's release of the Gemini 3 model, which outperforms ChatGPT and is based on self-developed TPU training, reduces market dependence on Nvidia's chips, further impacting sector sentiment [3]

从 Gemini 到英伟达：AI 竞 争转向应用落地 计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 投资建议 建议关注 AI 应用相关企业，包括万兴科技、合合信息、金山办公、科大讯飞、 拓尔思、虹软科技等。 评级面临的主要风险 技术创新不及预期；政策推行不到位；下游需求景气度不稳定的风险。 计算机行业"一周解码" 谷歌 Gemini 3 的发布标志着生成式 AI 进入"任务智能体"时代，投资焦点正从底层算 力转向高频刚需的应用落地；英伟达强劲的业绩表现显示 AI 应用的落地正驱动产业 链爆发式增长，为 AI 投资提供长期支撑力；闻泰科技坚决反对"暂停即解决"的说法， 要求彻底恢复其对安世半导体的合法控制权，强调将采取一切法律手段维权。 支撑评级的要点 计算机 相关研究报告 证券分析师：杨思睿 《阿里千问 APP 上线，全面对标 ChatGPT》 20251116 《中外 Robotaxi 共振》20251110 《AI 进一步融入应用》20251104 (8610)66229321 sirui.yang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S13005180900 ...

Market Overview - Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and will close early on Friday at 1 pm ET, leading to a shortened trading week with lower volumes expected [6] - Major indexes remain under pressure, with the S&P 500 declining 2% last week and 3.5% for November, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.7% last week and is down 6.1% month-to-date [6] Federal Reserve Insights - Investor expectations for a December rate cut have surged, with futures markets now assigning nearly a 70% probability for a quarter-point cut at the December 10 Fed meeting, up from about 44% a week earlier [6] - Goldman Sachs Research supports the case for a December cut, anticipating the Fed's proactive approach to managing potential economic risks and forecasting two additional rate cuts in 2026 amid a cooling labor market [4][6] Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled its October consumer price index (CPI) report and postponed November's CPI release until after the Fed's December meeting, adding to market uncertainty [5][6] - Investor sentiment remains cautious, particularly regarding high valuations in AI-linked stocks that have driven much of the year's market gains, with a noted desire for certainty in the current noisy market environment [5][7] Nvidia and AI Chip Sales - Reports indicate that the US government may allow Nvidia Corp. to resume sales of its advanced AI chips to China after a prior suspension due to export controls, although the review is still ongoing [6]

摘要 英伟达 Q3 财报显示收入同比增长 205%，调整后毛利率达 73.6%，预 计 Q4 收入中值为 650 亿美元，同比增长 65%，调整后毛利率中枢为 75%。公司预计 2026 财年毛利率维持在 70%中段，缓解了市场对其毛 利率受存储涨价和 ASIC 影响的担忧。 英伟达正加强供应链韧性，与台积电合作在美国本土生产 Blackwell 晶 圆，并扩大与富士康、安靠等合作伙伴的美国制造能力。安靠股价盘后 上涨 10%，反映市场积极情绪。 英伟达预计 Blackwell 和 Ruby 系列 2026 年合计出货 2000 万颗，目 标收入 500 亿美元，并可能上调。新增沙特采购协议约 100 亿美元， Anthropic 新增合作需求约 300-350 亿美元，使得原定 5,000 亿美元 目标有 10%的上调空间。 英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋回应 AI 泡沫及 GPU 折旧周期问题，认为云厂商给予 GPU 卡 5-6 年折旧周期合理，且随着推理比例增加，周期可延长。客户 测试替代方案后仍选择英伟达，表明其竞争力强劲。 Q&A 英伟达最新的财报表现如何？其未来展望如何？ 英伟达最新发布的 Q3 财报显示 ...

英伟达 20251120 摘要 英伟达的客户主要集中在加速计算、AI 模型和智能应用程序等领域。超大规模 计算正在成为一个万亿美元的行业，推动搜索推荐和内容理解从传统机器学习 转向生成式 AI。Meta 等公司正在进行数百亿美元规模的基础设施投资，以提 高 AI 推荐系统的质量和相关性。 英伟达在 AI 基础设施方面有哪些重要项目和合作？ 英伟达第三季度收入达 82 亿美元，同比增长 162%，主要受益于加速 计算和生成式 AI 的强劲需求，超大规模计算正推动行业从传统机器学习 转向生成式 AI。 英伟达宣布了总计 5 百万美元的人工智能工厂和基础设施项目，并与亚 马逊网络服务和 Anthropic 扩大合作，部署多达 15 万个 RGB 300 XAI 人工智能加速器，并开发新产品。 Blackwell 平台需求强劲，GB 300 贡献了大部分收入。Hopper 平台 推出 13 个季度后收入达 20 亿美元，但受地缘政治影响，部分采购订单 未能如期交付。 Rubin 平台计划于 2026 年下半年量产，性能将显著提升。英伟达已完 成向主要云服务商、超大规模企业和 GPU 云的 GB 300 过渡。 CUD ...

19 November 2025 | 10:23PM EST Equity Research Nvidia Corp. (NVDA): Accelerating datacenter compute revenue should sustain upward trajectory for both estimates and the stock - Buy Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to hold its gains (up 5% in the after market) following a stronger quarter with guidance that came in above Street expectations, against relatively balanced expectations heading into the quarter. Importantly, we believe management provided solid evidence that addressed several key investor ...

On November 19 (U.S. time), Nvidia (NVDA, covered by U.S. Semiconductors analyst James Schneider) reported its 3QFY26 (August-October) earnings results. Revenue of US$57bn (+22% qoq) exceeded both GSe of US$55.6bn and Visible Alpha Consensus Data of US$55.4bn, with Data Center revenue of US$51.2bn well above both GSe of US$49.4bn and the Street at US$49.7bn. The company guided 4Q (November-January) revenue and gross margin above the Street, where revenue guidance of US$65bn at the midpoint exceeded both GSe ...

Ac t i o n | 20 Nov 2025 02:46:50 ET │ 19 pages NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Estimate Changes — We revise FY27/FY28 sales by 19%/26% reflecting what we now expect to be a re-accelerated DC sales backed by better-than expected Blackwell and Rubin demand visibility. Though pushing down our FY27E/FY28E non-GAAP GM estimates to 75%/75.3% from prior 76%/76.1% respectively, our FY27/28 EPS estimates go up by 12%/19% to $8.10 and $10.08, respectively. We raise our TP to $270 on consistent 30x P/E times revised CY27 EPS po ...