本周，科技巨头的CEO们对AI将蒸发老牌软件公司竞争护城河的担忧嗤之以鼻，尽管这些公司的股票 在长达数月的剧烈抛售中暴跌。 周二在旧金山举行的思科（CSCO）AI峰会上，英伟达（NVDA）CEO黄仁勋表示："有一种观点认为工 具行业正在衰退，并将被AI取代……这是世界上最不合逻辑的事情，时间会证明一切。" 本周，Palantir（PLTR）和甲骨文（ORCL）领跌大型企业软件股，过去三个交易日均下跌约12%。在此 期间，Salesforce（CRM）、SAP（SAP）、ServiceNow（NOW）、Snowflake（SNOW）和微软 （MSFT）也大幅下挫。 投资者担心，此类软件即服务（SaaS）公司的客户可能会利用Anthropic的Claude Code等大型语言模型 提供商的AI工具，开发内部软件解决方案，从而减少对Salesforce等供应商的依赖。还有人担心，AI正 在降低全新软件参与者的门槛。包括Aurasell和Artisan AI等初创公司的AI原生平台可能会直接挑战老牌 公司的竞争优势。 他继续说道："如果你是人类或机器人，你会使用工具还是重新发明工具？答案显然是使用工具……比 如Ser ...

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 1. 生物医药 行业长期受到一个问题的困扰：创新周期往往比回报周期更长。 2. 在几乎所有治疗领域里，礼来的整体研发速度，平均仍然比下一家同规模的制药公司快大约 40%。 3. CEO的工作 职责 是创造条件，让伟大的想法能够系统性地不断涌现。 4. 在过去 10年里，我当初做过的一个最重要的决定，就是在公司还负担不起的时候，依然为英伟达建造了 一台当时全球规模最大的超级计算机之一。 5. 我 现在 真的认为， 生物医药 行业的 " 关键 时刻 "已经到来了。能够从"药物发现"这种有点像在森林 里找松露的方式，转向真正的计算机辅助药物设计。 6. 当然，这背后的科学极其复杂，人类生物学本身也极其复杂，可能 （完全实现） 还需要 10 年时间。 7. 如果我们能把这件事从一种 "手工艺式的发现"，变成一个工程问题，那对人类生命的影响将是巨大的。 8. 我们更关注一个更现实的问题：如果最大寿命上限是 100岁，我们怎么让更多人更有机会真正走到那一 天？而我们的方式，是通过消除疾病来实现这一点。 9. 如果说在 AI领域目前最容易落地 ...

更引人注目的是估值差异。高盛对2026和2027财年的每股收益预测分别比市场共识高出17%和29%。这 意味着要么高盛对增长的乐观程度远超市场，要么市场存在显著的定价错误。 5000亿美元预测需要更清晰的路线图 英伟达此前给出了数据中心业务收入达到5000亿美元的远期目标。投资者现在想知道的是：这个数字何 时实现、客户构成如何、计算和网络业务各占多少。 从这个已经远高于市场预期的基数出发，高盛认为英伟达对2027年收入可见性的任何积极表态都可能成 为股价催化剂。根据高盛模型，2027财年数据中心收入将达到3573亿美元，比市场预期高出16%；2028 财年进一步增至4839亿美元，高出市场预期22%。 产品切换节奏也是关键变量。高盛预计Rubin GPU将在三季度开始出货，四季度及之后大幅放量。按 照模型，到2027财年一季度，Rubin将占据收入的主要份额，而Blackwell的占比将快速下降。这种快速 的产品迭代既是英伟达的技术护城河，也考验着供应链执行能力。 英伟达即将公布的四季度财报预计将再次超预期，但投资者的关注点已经转向更远的未来。当前股价基 本消化了2026年的增长空间，股价能否继续上涨取决于公 ...

Core Insights - Alphabet is significantly increasing its capital expenditure (capex) to $175 billion-$185 billion this year, doubling its spending from the previous year, which reflects its commitment to advancing its AI initiatives [2][4]. Financial Performance - Alphabet reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, surpassing estimates on both revenue and earnings, although the stock's recent rally has faced challenges due to pressures in the AI sector [1][2]. Capital Expenditure Plans - The planned capex is aimed at enhancing AI capabilities, particularly in developing cutting-edge models through Google DeepMind, and improving core business areas like advertising [4][5]. - Nvidia is highlighted as a crucial partner in this strategy, with Alphabet expected to be among the first to utilize Nvidia's new Vera Rubin GPU platform [4][5]. AI Market Dynamics - Alphabet's AI investments are showing positive returns, with 8 million paid seats sold for Gemini Enterprise shortly after its launch, indicating strong demand and growth potential in the AI sector [6]. - The increase in capital expenditures from major tech companies like Alphabet and Meta suggests that the AI boom is not only ongoing but also accelerating, which is favorable for Nvidia's growth prospects [7][8]. Industry Implications - The substantial capex from Alphabet and other tech giants indicates a robust outlook for the AI chip market, with expectations for Nvidia's revenue to potentially exceed the Wall Street consensus of a 52% increase for fiscal 2027 [8].

= 玉 本 金 苹果、英伟达、谷歌押注Al 电子产业链有望乘势崛起 无论是英伟达的巨额投资,还是谷歌TPU的明确量产 计划,都证实了AI算力需求强劲,这为半导体、服务器 等中上游产业链提供了持续的订单保障。苹果考虑分 散芯片代工、谷歌深化与特定元件商的合作,凸显了供 应链安全的重要性,这为中国相关产业链优质供应商 创造了切入或提升份额的机会。 电子剧 型 공 515260 代码 联接A 012550 联接C 012551 荟聚电子板块核心龙头 拥抱科技巨头 抢占发展先机 电子ETF标的指数覆盖热门科技概念,苹果、英伟达、谷 歌产业链权重占比分别为45.19%、27.87%、21.85%,深 度绑定全球科技龙头成长红利,有望受益于科技巨头产 业扩张与技术创新。 英伟达产业链 苹果产业链 谷歌产业链 : 45% = 733% r 要 。 其股上市公司 以上公司仪作为背景就明 不代表该基金投资方向 n will and the will be the will be the will be the will be the will be the will be the with lll/得为王 电子板块迎 "喜报潮 ...

报道称，该公司正将面临行业性短缺的内存资源优先分配给其人工智能加速器。一位消息人士补充说， 由于内存短缺，英伟达已削减现有游戏GPU产品线的产量。 在当前的资本版图中，英伟达的200亿美元注资并非孤军奋战，这也反映了顶级科技巨头对AI话语权的 激烈争夺。 英伟达发言人在回应声明中承认了内存供应问题。"GeForce RTX GPU的需求强劲，而内存供应受到限 制，"该发言人通过邮件表示，"我们正在持续供应所有GeForce系列产品，并正与供应商紧密合作以最 大化内存供应量。" 据两位知情人士透露，由于持续的内存供应紧缺，英伟达(NVDA.US)在2026年可能不会发布新一代游 戏图形处理器(GPU)。 此外，近期英伟达公司正接近达成一项协议，拟向OpenAI投资200亿美元，作为后者最新一轮融资的一 部分，若交易完成，这将成为该芯片制造商对这家ChatGPT开发商的最大单笔投资。 若由黄仁勋领导的英伟达今年不发布新款游戏GPU，这将是该公司三十年来首次中断年度产品更新节 奏。 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent pullback in the AI industry is a necessary phase in the deep integration of AI technology into various sectors, rather than a fundamental threat to the industry's future [1][6] - It suggests that the current market concerns regarding the uncertainty of AI application business models and hardware demand are part of the industry's evolution, and that this pullback presents investment opportunities in AI applications, cloud services, and storage [2][6] Market Trends - Since mid-January 2026, the AI industry chain has experienced a continuous pullback, exacerbated by several events in early February, including Microsoft's financial report revealing dual concerns about growth dependency and investment returns [2][3] - Microsoft's Q2 2026 financial report indicated a slowdown in Azure cloud computing growth and projected capital expenditures exceeding $100 billion, with approximately 45% of its cloud business backlog dependent on OpenAI [3] - Concerns were also raised regarding NVIDIA's investment stance on OpenAI, with CEO Jensen Huang indicating a cautious approach to investment, despite previous indications of a potential $100 billion investment [4] Business Model Uncertainty - The report identifies dual uncertainties in the market: the uncertainty of AI application business models and the uncertainty of real demand [5][6] - It highlights that traditional SaaS companies may face challenges as enterprises consider building their own AI tools, potentially undermining SaaS profitability [5][6] - The report argues that the market's valuation logic is shifting from paying premiums for future potential to assessing current realities and investment returns [5] Long-term Outlook - The report posits that the concerns regarding business model and demand uncertainties are part of the necessary evolution towards deeper integration of AI technology, rather than a fundamental threat to the industry's prospects [6] - It suggests that traditional application vendors can leverage their industry knowledge and data advantages to build new barriers in the AI era, and that early movers may see valuation increases [6][7] - The demand for hardware is expected to grow in tandem with the maturity of software applications, as AI applications transition from "technology demonstrations" to "production tools" [7]

2月5日，美股芯片股走高，博通涨超4%，英特尔涨超3%，台积电、阿斯麦、AMD、应用材料、英伟达 涨超1%。 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 H200芯片于2024年发布，其性能不及英伟达新推出的Blackwell和Rubin芯片。特朗普批准出口这些 芯片是为了在不大幅提升美国人工智能能力的前提下，保持美国在中国市场的竞争力。安全鹰派人士 警告称，H200芯片的性能足以左右人工智能领域的竞争格局，国务院和其他机构的一些官员也呼吁 加强对此类芯片销售的监管。 《金融时报》本周早些时候报道称，国务院力推严格限制措施，导致审批速度放缓。 中国已批准客户首批购买 H200，但订单和北京方面对后续交易的批准取决于美国最终的批准。 据知情人士透露，英伟达警告称，美国的新限制与拜登时代、特朗普政府去年废除的芯片扩散规则有 诸多相似之处，最终可能有利于中国芯片巨头华为。这些新规包含严格的安全协议，旨在确保芯片不 会被转移到中国军方或其他美国对手手中，并可能限制中国客户在中国境外使用这些芯片的能力。 知情人士透露，该公司已向官员表示，某些要求需要客户投入大量资金才能满足，这将降低人工智能 数据中心的经济吸引力。 英伟达大幅削减在中国的GPU供应 英伟达警告特朗普政府官员，最近出台的针对中国芯片出口的规定过于严格，将会摧 ...

Group 1 - Meituan has agreed to acquire Dingdong Fresh Holding Limited for $717 million, which will make Dingdong a wholly-owned subsidiary of Meituan, enhancing its core competitive advantages on a larger platform [3] - Nvidia will not launch new gaming graphics chips this year due to a shortage of storage chips, marking the first time in thirty years, and will reduce the production of the current GeForce RTX50 series [3] - Amazon announced a capital expenditure of approximately $200 billion for 2026, exceeding market expectations, primarily for cloud infrastructure and AI technology development [3] Group 2 - Alphabet's Q4 revenue reached $113.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with Google Cloud revenue growing by 48% to $17.66 billion [4] - NIO expects to achieve an adjusted operating profit of 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking its first quarterly profit [4] Group 3 - Baidu's board has approved a $5 billion share buyback plan and a dividend policy, with the first dividend expected in 2026, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects [6] - TSMC plans to invest approximately $17 billion in its Kumamoto plant for 3nm chip production, while also evaluating adjustments to its second wafer fab's process planning [6] - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to issue A-shares to raise up to 5 billion yuan for various battery projects and to supplement working capital [6] Group 4 - Samsung Electronics announced the construction of a dedicated HBM4 DRAM production line at its P4 plant, aiming to increase production capacity by nearly 20% [12] - Toyota continues to focus on hybrid vehicles after achieving six consecutive years of global sales leadership, with a projected decline in net profit for Q3 [12] - Sony Group's Q3 operating profit was 515.04 billion yen, exceeding market expectations, and it raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 1.54 trillion yen [12]