Core Viewpoint - Silicon Carbide (SiC) is recognized as a transformative material in the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors, but major US players like Onsemi and Wolfspeed are facing significant challenges due to market demand slowdown and intense competition from Chinese firms [2][19]. Group 1: Onsemi's Challenges and Transformation - Onsemi reported disappointing Q4 2024 earnings with revenue of $1.72 billion, a nearly 15% year-over-year decline, significantly below analyst expectations [4]. - The company anticipates further revenue decline in Q1 2025, projecting between $1.35 billion and $1.45 billion, lower than the market expectation of $1.69 billion [4]. - Onsemi's stock has plummeted over 37% in 2024, reflecting deep market concerns about its fundamentals [4]. - The company is facing fierce competition from Chinese and European SiC manufacturers, which pressures its cost and technology [7]. - To address these challenges, Onsemi is implementing a restructuring plan that includes a 9% workforce reduction, expected to incur costs of $50 million to $60 million in 2025 [7][8]. - Onsemi is pursuing growth through acquisitions, including a $1.15 billion purchase of Qorvo's SiC JFET business and a proposed $6.9 billion acquisition of Allegro Microsystems to enhance its technology in automotive and industrial markets [8][19]. - The company is transitioning to a Fab-lite model, integrating nine factories and focusing on higher-margin chip self-manufacturing to improve efficiency and reduce costs [8]. Group 2: Wolfspeed's Survival Crisis - Wolfspeed, once a pioneer in wide bandgap semiconductors, is now facing a severe survival crisis due to aggressive capital expenditures and operational losses [9][10]. - The company reported revenues of less than $900 million in 2024, with a net loss exceeding $600 million, and carries over $5 billion in net debt [10][12]. - Wolfspeed's ambitious investments in 200mm SiC wafer technology have led to cash flow depletion, with production facing significant delays and low yield rates [10][12]. - The company has drastically cut its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $1.2 billion to $300 million and halted a $3 billion factory project in Germany, indicating a retreat from aggressive expansion plans [13][14]. - Despite signing supply agreements with major EV manufacturers, Wolfspeed's outlook is clouded by delayed orders and competitive pressures from Chinese firms [13][14]. - The company is seeking $750 million in funding through the CHIPS Act, but political uncertainties raise doubts about the realization of this funding [14][19]. Group 3: Structural Challenges in the US SiC Market - Both Onsemi and Wolfspeed are experiencing a mismatch between capital and demand cycles, having made aggressive investments during the 2021-2023 boom, only to face declining EV demand in 2024 [16]. - The rise of domestic SiC companies in China is intensifying competition, with firms like Tiankong Heda and BYD Semiconductor rapidly closing the technology gap while leveraging cost advantages [16][17]. - Despite support from the CHIPS Act, US companies face policy uncertainties and inefficiencies that hinder the formation of a competitive industry cluster compared to China's integrated supply chain strategy [17]. - The future of the SiC market will increasingly depend on technological innovation, production efficiency, and cost control capabilities as demand continues to grow amid global energy transitions [17].

ON Semiconductor (ON) shares have lost 43% in the past 6 months, underperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s decline of 5.9% and the Semiconductor - Analog and Mixed industry’s fall of 24%.ON has underperformed industry peers, including Magnachip Semiconductor (MX) , NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Analog Devices (ADI) . Over the same time frame, shares of Magnachip Semiconductor, NXP Semiconductors and Analog Devices have lost 24.5%, 20.4% and 14.4%, respectively.The decline in ON Semiconductor' ...

ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ON ) revenue has declined 36% since its previous peak of the last semiconductor cycle. The stock has also declined more than 60% as a result. While investors need to be cautious of macroeconomic and geopoliticalDr. Omer Cheema is a semiconductor industry executive with 20+ years of experience spanning engineering, strategy, marketing and general management roles. He is currently a Senior Director at Renesas Electronics, where he manages Analog and Connectivity related product lines ...

Core Viewpoint - ON Semiconductor Corp. is pursuing the acquisition of Allegro Microsystems Inc. with a cash offer of $35.10 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $6.9 billion, including debt, despite Allegro's board deeming the offer "unreasonable" [1][3][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Proposal - ON Semiconductor has engaged Morgan Stanley to advise on the acquisition of Allegro Microsystems, alongside UBS Group [1]. - The initial offer of $34.50 per share was made on September 2, 2024, and was increased to $35.10 per share on February 12, 2025 [3][7]. - Allegro's market capitalization is around $4.5 billion, while ON Semiconductor's market cap is approximately $17 billion [2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The merger is seen as strategically significant, combining ON Semiconductor's power and sensing technologies with Allegro's expertise in automotive and industrial markets [2][4]. - ON Semiconductor's CEO emphasized the complementary nature of both companies and the potential benefits for customers and shareholders [4]. Group 3: Financial Aspects - The proposed cash offer represents a 57% premium over Allegro's closing price on February 28, 2025, prior to the acquisition news [5]. - ON Semiconductor has a clear financing plan for the acquisition, utilizing committed financing, available cash, and existing credit facilities [6]. Group 4: Shareholder Engagement - ON Semiconductor has made multiple attempts to engage in constructive discussions with Allegro's board regarding the acquisition [7]. - Allegro's largest shareholder is Japan's Sanken Electric Co., holding approximately 32% of the shares [2].

Core Viewpoint - ON Semiconductor has underperformed in the market, with a 28.5% decline year-to-date, compared to a 5.5% drop in the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and a 3.9% decline in the Semiconductor - Analog and Mixed industry [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Market Position - The company has faced declining demand across key end markets and ongoing inventory digestion, contributing to its underperformance relative to peers like NXP Semiconductors, which has seen a 1.7% return in the same period [1][2]. - ON Semiconductor's shares are currently overvalued, indicated by a Value Score of D, and are trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend [12][13]. Group 2: Growth Prospects - Despite current challenges, ON Semiconductor's growth prospects are bolstered by strong demand for silicon carbide (SiC) technology, particularly in utility-scale solar and electric vehicles (EVs) in China, as well as intelligent sensing solutions for AI data centers [4][6]. - The company reported a 22% sequential increase in SiC revenues in Q4 2024, and its recent $115 million acquisition of Qorvo's Silicon Carbide Junction Field Effect Transistor business is expected to enhance its position in the SiC market [4][5]. Group 3: Acquisitions and Market Strategy - ON Semiconductor is pursuing strategic acquisitions to strengthen its market position, including a planned acquisition of Allegro MicroSystems for $6.9 billion, which aims to combine automotive and industrial power solutions with sensing expertise [7][8]. - The company is targeting a total addressable market worth $1.3 billion in EV battery disconnects and solid-state circuit breakers, with a projected revenue CAGR of 30% through 2030 [6]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - For Q1 2025, ON Semiconductor anticipates non-GAAP earnings between 45 cents and 55 cents per share, with a consensus estimate of 51 cents, reflecting a 52.78% decline from the previous year [9][10]. - Revenue expectations for Q1 2025 are between $1.35 billion and $1.45 billion, with a consensus of $1.41 billion, indicating a 24.54% decline year-over-year [10]. Group 5: Market Challenges - The company is facing subdued overall demand due to ongoing inventory digestion and slow end-market demand, which is expected to negatively impact top-line growth [9][10]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff impacts are anticipated to further hinder near-term prospects, with Japan sales experiencing a sharp decline and challenges in the Chinese market affecting EV deliveries [16][17].

Group 1: Stock Performance - ON Semiconductor Corp. ended the latest trading session at $42.15, reflecting a -1.63% adjustment from the previous day's close, which lagged behind the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.91% [1] - The stock has experienced a decline of 14.4% over the past month, underperforming the Computer and Technology sector's loss of 10.57% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.38% [1] Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect ON Semiconductor Corp. to report earnings of $0.51 per share in the upcoming release, indicating a year-over-year decline of 52.78% [2] - The consensus estimate anticipates revenue of $1.41 billion, representing a 24.54% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] Group 3: Full Year Projections - For the full year, Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $2.49 per share and revenue of $6.07 billion, reflecting changes of -37.44% and -14.3%, respectively, from the prior year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes to analyst estimates for ON Semiconductor Corp. indicate short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting optimism about the company's outlook [4] - The Zacks Rank system currently assigns ON Semiconductor Corp. a rank of 5 (Strong Sell), with the consensus EPS estimate having decreased by 18.12% over the last 30 days [6] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - ON Semiconductor Corp. has a Forward P/E ratio of 17.23, which is lower than the industry average of 30.9, indicating that the company is trading at a discount compared to its peers [7] - The company holds a PEG ratio of 13.46, significantly higher than the industry average PEG ratio of 1.95, suggesting a disparity in expected earnings growth [8] Group 6: Industry Context - The Semiconductor - Analog and Mixed industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 205, placing it in the bottom 19% of over 250 industries [8]

Group 1 - Investors in ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) should monitor the stock due to significant activity in the options market, particularly the March 21, 2025 $30 Call, which has high implied volatility [1] - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a significant price change or an upcoming event that could lead to a major rally or sell-off [2] - Currently, ON Semiconductor holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) in the Semiconductor - Analog and Mixed industry, which is in the bottom 20% of the Zacks Industry Rank, with no analysts increasing earnings estimates and 12 analysts reducing them, leading to a drop in the consensus estimate from 95 cents to 51 cents per share [3] Group 2 - The high implied volatility for ON Semiconductor may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility to capture decay, hoping the stock does not move as much as expected by expiration [4]

Core Viewpoint - Allegro Microsystems rejected a $6.9 billion cash acquisition offer from ON Semiconductor, citing the proposal as "inadequate" [1][2]. Group 1: Allegro Microsystems - Allegro's board received the acquisition proposal in February and deemed the offer of $35.10 per share insufficient, following a previous offer of $34.50 per share [2]. - Allegro's latest closing stock price was $26.78 per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately $4.9 billion [2]. - In 2024, Allegro reported sales revenue exceeding $1 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth, with the latest quarterly revenue at $178 million [2]. Group 2: ON Semiconductor - ON Semiconductor's revenue primarily comes from automotive CMOS image sensors (CIS) and power semiconductors, holding a leading position in the automotive image sensor market with a 50% market share [3]. - In the advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) segment, ON Semiconductor commands a significant 68% market share [3]. - The CEO of ON Semiconductor stated that the merger would combine two highly complementary companies [3].

Core Insights - The article provides a perspective on stock investments, emphasizing the author's unique insights and knowledge in the field [1] Group 1 - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in the shares of ON and MU, indicating confidence in these stocks [2] - The article expresses personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [2] - The analysis is intended for informational purposes and encourages readers to conduct their own research before investing [3] Group 2 - The article clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results, highlighting the inherent uncertainties in stock investments [4] - It notes that the views expressed may not represent the overall stance of Seeking Alpha, indicating a diversity of opinions among analysts [4] - The article emphasizes that analysts may not be licensed or certified, which could affect the reliability of the information provided [4]

Core Viewpoint - ON Semiconductor is implementing a restructuring plan to reduce its workforce by 2,400 employees, which is expected to generate annual savings of $105 million to $115 million while incurring $50-$60 million in employment-related charges [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's fourth-quarter 2024 non-GAAP earnings were 95 cents per share, a decline of 24% year over year, with revenues falling 14.7% to $1.72 billion [2]. - ON's stock has decreased by 19.8% year to date, underperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector, which saw a decline of 1.6% [2]. Market Dynamics - Sales in Japan declined sharply in the fourth quarter, while China experienced an 18% sequential growth; however, early Chinese New Year and extended shutdowns negatively impacted electric vehicle deliveries, affecting ON's growth prospects [5]. - The company anticipates that ongoing inventory digestion in key markets, particularly automotive and industrial, will continue to impact profitability [2]. Strategic Initiatives - ON's restructuring plan aims to enhance profitability through stringent cost management and capacity planning, which is expected to improve gross and operating margins and generate strong cash flow in the long term [6]. - The company is focusing on growth in silicon carbide technology, particularly in utility-scale solar and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), with expected revenue increases of 40% in 2024 and 50% in aerospace and defense [7]. Acquisitions and Partnerships - ON's acquisition of Silicon Carbide Junction Field-Effect Transistor technology is expected to enhance its energy-efficient power solutions portfolio, particularly for AI data centers and electric vehicles [8]. - Partnerships with companies like BorgWarner and Magna are set to enhance ON's market position in silicon carbide technology, with a lifetime value of $1 billion from the BorgWarner collaboration [11]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is 54 cents per share, reflecting a 35.5% decline over the past 30 days and a 41.3% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [12]. - For 2025, the earnings estimate is $2.60 per share, down 35.5% from 2024, with revenues projected at $6.17 billion, indicating a 12.92% decline [13]. Stock Valuation - ON Semiconductor shares are currently considered overvalued, indicated by a Value Score of D, and are trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend [15][16]. - The company plans to rationalize its manufacturing footprint and reduce excess capacity, which is expected to lower fixed costs and positively impact profitability by late 2025 [17].