特朗普：倾向于由沃什或哈塞特领导美联储 美国总统特朗普表示，他倾向于由前美联储理事沃什或国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在明年领导美 联储。 特朗普说，他认为下一任美联储主席应该就利率的设定与他进行磋商。 "通常情况下，这种做法已经不存在了。以前经常这样做。应该这样做，"特朗普说，"这并不意味着 ——我不认为他应该完全按照我们说的去做。但可以肯定的是，我是一个聪明的声音，应该被倾听"。 1、特朗普：倾向于由沃什或哈塞特领导美联储 2、美联储官员就降息是否会危及抗通胀信誉展开激辩 3 、甲骨文为OpenAI打造的部分数据中心完工期推迟至2028年 4 、博通暴跌 步甲骨文后尘 令押注人工智能的投资者失望 5、特朗普拟放宽大麻管制 大麻类股应声上涨 6、美联储保尔森：劳动力市场风险大于通胀风险且政策仍偏紧 来源：环球市场播报 全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 消息人士称，这些延误主要是由于人力和材料短缺所致。 美联储官员就降息是否会危及抗通胀信誉展开激辩 美联储官员周五再次阐明了本周降息为何如此充满争议，在公开评论中，一位官员认为，如果劳动力市 场走软，央行还有继续降息的空间，而其他官员则警告称，降息 ...

Group 1 - President Trump prefers former Fed Governor Waller or NEC Director Hassett to lead the Federal Reserve next year, emphasizing the need for consultation on interest rate decisions [4][20] - Trump believes that the next Fed chair should consider his opinions, stating that he is a "smart voice" that should be heard [4][20] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials are debating whether a rate cut could jeopardize the central bank's anti-inflation credibility, with some arguing for continued cuts if the labor market weakens, while others warn against potential risks to inflation achievements [7][22] - The Fed recently voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with a notable dissent from three members, marking the first time since 2019 that three decision-makers formally opposed a rate cut [7][23] Group 3 - Oracle has delayed the completion of some data centers for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028, primarily due to labor and material shortages, resulting in a 4.5% drop in Oracle's stock price [9][25] Group 4 - Broadcom's stock fell 11% after disappointing sales outlooks for the AI market, marking the largest drop in ten months, as CEO Tan expressed concerns about meeting investor expectations [11][28] Group 5 - President Trump is expected to instruct his administration to reclassify marijuana as a lower-risk substance, which could represent a significant shift in U.S. marijuana policy, leading to a rise in cannabis stocks [13][30] - A White House official indicated that no final decision has been made regarding the reclassification of marijuana [14][32] Group 6 - Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed concerns that risks in the labor market outweigh inflation risks, predicting a potential cooling of inflation next year [16][33] - Harker noted that the labor market is "bending but not breaking," with hiring concentrated in healthcare and social services, indicating broader hiring remains weak [16][34]

First of all, we know Oracle has commented on this and they're saying they're pushing back. Tell us, though, what you guys found out. What you found out.Right. Yeah. Oracle is saying that we have a huge contract with open air that's, you know, four and a half gigawatts.They're on the hook to develop data centers larger than I've ever been done. And in a shorter timeframe, they're saying that we're going to be able to deliver on our contracts and deliver on our expansions. Right.What we reported today is tha ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle is facing challenges in fulfilling its large contracts for data center development due to supply chain issues, despite high demand for AI computing resources [1][2][3][4]. Company Insights - Oracle has a significant contract with OpenAI, involving the development of data centers with a capacity of 4.5 gigawatts [1]. - The company is experiencing delays in building data centers, attributed to labor shortages and insufficient electrical infrastructure in Texas [2]. - Despite these challenges, the demand for AI compute resources remains extremely high, with potential clients ready to sign contracts for large data centers [4]. - Oracle is positioning itself as a key player in AI infrastructure, leveraging its strong cash flow from database software to invest heavily in this sector [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The demand for AI infrastructure is insatiable, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this demand in the long term [4]. - Oracle's stock experienced a surge of 7% following a robust earnings report and significant deal announcements, but has since declined by approximately 42% [10][11]. - Investors are questioning Oracle's ability to fulfill its commitments, particularly a $300 billion deal with OpenAI, as other companies also secure similar commitments [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The largest cloud computing deal, "Stargate," originated from a LinkedIn message and has led to significant volatility in Oracle's stock, reflecting a cooling enthusiasm on Wall Street for AI investments [1][3]. Group 1: Deal Origin and Structure - The unprecedented deal was initiated by a LinkedIn message from OpenAI's infrastructure head to Oracle's sales team, leading to discussions about a partnership [3]. - OpenAI committed to spending approximately $300 billion to lease servers from Oracle, which requires the construction of about five large data center complexes [4]. - Oracle's plans for these data centers were initially ambitious, but reports of delays in completion have emerged, raising concerns about the project's viability [4]. Group 2: Financial Pressures and Market Reactions - Oracle faces significant financial pressure due to the high upfront investment required for the data centers, with costs exacerbated by rising material and labor prices [5]. - The company's aggressive strategy has resulted in negative free cash flow for the first time since 1992, leading to increased trading of Oracle credit default swaps [1][5]. - As OpenAI's spending increases, the value of each commitment appears to be declining, contributing to Oracle's stock price drop [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Strategic Decisions - Microsoft, a long-time partner of OpenAI, has expressed concerns about the capacity demands from OpenAI, leading to a decision to allow OpenAI to seek other cloud providers [8]. - Analysts suggest that Oracle's heavy investment in AI could be risky, as the economic impact of AI remains uncertain and the potential for a bubble is increasing [9][12]. - The deal structure allows OpenAI to reassess its commitments in about five years, which could leave Oracle with costly, illiquid assets if OpenAI's growth stalls [9]. Group 4: Leadership and Vision - Larry Ellison, Oracle's co-founder, remains a central figure in the tech industry, advocating for AI as a transformative technology [10][11]. - Despite his age, Ellison's focus on AI reflects a belief in its potential, but the current market sentiment is questioning whether Oracle has overcommitted to an unproven future [11][13].

Are you worried. These drip, drip bits of information that maybe the revenue streams on able to be booked tomorrow. It has to be wait it out a little bit more in terms of the returns on investment.No, I think the long term trends are still in place. I actually thought that Broadcom's numbers were quite good and people were just, I think, very nervous at the end of the year, particularly with some bad news we've seen, such as from Oracle. And and I think it's really more just end of year jitters rather than ...

Market Trends - The current AI trade appears to be losing favor, as evidenced by stock performances from companies like Oracle and Broadcom [1][5] - Despite recent downturns, many stocks remain up significantly for the year, indicating a potential rotation in market trends that may have more sustainability than previous instances [3][4] Sector Performance - Following the Federal Reserve's decisions, sectors such as materials and financials have seen increases of 4% and 3% respectively, with industrials also reaching record highs [4] - Healthcare has also performed well, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in certain sectors [4] Capital Expenditures and Profitability - High capital expenditures, which can run into hundreds of billions or trillions, have historically been linked to poor returns and lower profits for firms [7][8] - Concerns are raised regarding the profitability of AI investments, particularly in light of rising expenses associated with building data centers [5][6] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent stance on inflation has been perceived as more controlled, which may positively influence market conditions moving forward [9][10] - Potential economic challenges, such as a Supreme Court tariff announcement and a fiscal cliff at the end of January, could impact GDP significantly if not managed properly [10][11] Future Projections - If the market can navigate upcoming challenges, there may be a more favorable economic outlook for 2026, with better conditions than previously anticipated [12]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle Corp's recent financial results have led to a sector-wide correction among major semiconductor companies, despite the potential for upside in ORCL stock due to reflexivity in market perceptions [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter, Oracle reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.26, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.64, marking a 54% increase year-over-year [2]. - However, Oracle's revenue of $16.06 billion fell short of analysts' expectations of $16.21 billion, contributing to a decline in stock price [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in ORCL stock by over 15% in recent sessions is attributed to the revenue miss and concerns regarding a potential AI bubble [3]. - The concept of reflexivity suggests that investor perceptions can significantly influence a company's valuation and stock price, creating a feedback loop [5]. Trading Analysis - Analysts suggest viewing ORCL stock through a distributional lens rather than a chronological one to account for rare events that can cause sharp price movements [6][7]. - A distributional analysis indicates that ORCL stock is likely to range between $186 and $212, with a clustering around $200 [11]. Options Strategy - A vertical spread options strategy, specifically a bull call spread, is recommended, targeting a price increase towards $200 while limiting risk beyond that point [12][13]. - The ideal trade involves buying a $190 call and selling a $200 call, with a maximum loss of $450 and a potential profit of $550 if the stock rises above $200 [16][17]. Probability Insights - Probability density significantly decreases above the $200 strike, making it an optimal target for maximizing payout potential while minimizing opportunity cost [18].

Oracle stock (NYSE: ORCL) plunged 5% on Friday after Bloomberg reported that the cloud giant has pushed back the completion of several data centers being built for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028. ...

Financial Performance - Oracle's new investment-grade notes are trading more like junk bonds [1] Investment & Risk - Delays on data center completion dates are fueling fears about AI investment profits [1]