来源：商业周刊 曾经可谓沉闷的数据库巨头甲骨文公司正在日渐成为信贷市场衡量人工智能(AI)风险的晴雨表；该公司 举借了数百亿资金，将其命运与AI的荣景牢牢地捆绑在一起。 由于甲骨文与AI相关的大举支出、在彼此交织的交易网络中扮演核心角色，同时相比微软或Alphabet Inc.等企业的信用评级更弱，交易员最近数月大举涌入甲骨文的信用违约互换(CDS)合约，使该合约成 为市场对冲（并押空）AI热潮的优选途径。 根据洲际交易所(ICE)数据服务公司的统计，近几个月来，防范该公司未来五年债务违约的成本已增长 了两倍，11月19日最高达到一年约1.11个百分点，相当于每保障1000万美元本金，需大约11.1万美元。 巴克莱信用策略师Jigar Patel指出，随着AI怀疑论者的涌入，截至11月14日的七周内，甲骨文CDS的交 易量大幅膨胀，至约50亿美元，而去年同期仅为2亿美元出头。 TD Securities Automated Trading联席主管Matt Schrager指出："正如我们经常在市场中看到的那样，流动 性催生流动性，一旦飞轮启动，往往就会不停地运转。" 甲骨文的股价同样反映出投资者日益增长的担忧 ...

周五，亚太市场开盘大跌，跟随隔夜美股走势。日韩股市再度大跳水，韩国综合指数一度跌超4%。 最新公布的美国非农数据未能提供有关利率前景的明确信息，尽管英伟达财报亮眼，投资者仍继续抛售风险较高的资产。 韩国Kospi指数下跌3.27%，报3873.79点。 全线下跌 截至目前，日经225指数下跌2.21%，报48772.01点。 日本科技投资巨头软银股价一度下跌11%，创11月5日以来最大跌幅；日本NAND闪存巨头铠侠股价一度下跌16%。 而在韩国市场上，存储大厂SK海力士股价下跌9%，三星电子跌5%。 中 国 台湾 基准股指 台湾 加权股价 指数下跌2.72%，报26679.22点。 澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数开盘下跌2%，截至目前，下跌1.35%，报8436.9点。 和美股一样，科技板块成为今日市场大跌的"重灾区"。 市场对人工智能相关股票估值过高的担忧加剧，科技股抛售卷土重来。 隔夜，美国科技股大跌拖累三大指数集体走低，纳指大跌逾2%，因投资者对美联储12月降息的预期降温。此外，尽管英伟达财报亮眼，但 投资者对"AI泡沫"的担忧仍在。 甲骨文和AMD等人工智能概念股当日率先转跌，随后英伟达回吐此前涨 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced significant volatility, with sharp mood swings observed across major indices [2][4] - The Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.16% after an intraday high of 2.6%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw declines of 1.56% and 0.84%, respectively, after earlier gains [2] Company Performance - Nvidia's stock was particularly volatile, rising by 5% before closing down 3.2%, indicating investor uncertainty despite initial reassurances from CEO Jensen Huang regarding the AI bubble [3] - Other AI-related stocks, such as Oracle and AMD, exhibited similar trading patterns, reflecting broader market concerns about the sustainability of AI valuations [3] Economic Indicators - The September U.S. jobs report exceeded expectations, contributing to market strain and reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [4] - Investors are now facing high valuations and a diminished outlook for rate cuts, impacting market sentiment as the holiday season approaches [5]

格隆汇11月21日｜甲骨文：任命Stephen Rusckowski为董事会成员，董事会规模扩大至14人。Stephen Rusckowski当选自11月18日起生效。Stephen Rusckowski曾任Quest Diagnostics首席执行官兼总裁。 ...

Core Points - Oracle Corporation has elected Stephen Rusckowski to its Board of Directors, increasing the board size to 14 members, effective November 18, 2025 [1][4] - Rusckowski has extensive experience in healthcare and technology, having served as CEO of Quest Diagnostics and Philips Healthcare, which is expected to provide valuable insights for Oracle Health [2][3] - The board members serve one-year terms, with the next election scheduled for November 2026 [4] Company Background - Oracle offers integrated applications and secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud, positioning itself as a leader in cloud computing [5]

11月21日早盘，日韩股市早盘出现大幅下挫，此前隔夜的美国股市在大型科技股集体下跌下出现暴跌。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.84%，标普500指数跌1.56%，纳斯达克综合指数跌486.18点，跌幅2.15%。大 型科技股集体下挫，AMD跌超7%，甲骨文跌超6%，英伟达跌超3%，亚马逊跌逾2%，微软跌逾1%，特 斯拉跌超2%，谷歌跌超1%，苹果跌近1%，脸书跌0.19%。 导致美股上演"过山车"行情的背后，是美联储官员的鹰派言论和对AI高估值的担忧引发市场风险偏好回 落，这再度触发了美股大规模技术性抛售。 知名投资人、华尔街"大空头"迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）则在社交平台再度发文，抨击AI泡沫。他 表示："下面列出的每家公司都存在可疑的收入确认问题。如果把所有交易都算进去，那图表简直难以 辨认。未来人们会把这看作是欺诈，而不是飞轮效应。真正的终端需求少得可怜，几乎所有客户都是靠 经销商出资的。" "认为芯片使用寿命更长（用于折旧）是因为3—4年前的芯片已被预订一空，这种想法混淆了物理利用 率和价值创造。仅仅因为某样东西被使用，并不意味着它就能盈利。"迈克尔·伯里写道。他举例称，通 用会计准则（G ...

根据ICE数据服务公司的数据，最近几个月，为防范该公司五年内债务违约所需支付的成本已上涨两倍，于周三达到每年1.11个百分点的峰值，即每保护 1000万美元本金需支付约11.1万美元。 巴克莱银行信用策略师Jigar Patel称，随着人工智能怀疑论者涌入，在截至11月14日的七周内，该公司信用违约互换的交易量已飙升至约50亿美元。而去年 同期的交易量仅为略高于2亿美元。 "正如我们在市场中经常看到的情况，流动性会催生更多流动性，一旦这个飞轮开始转动，它往往会持续下去，"道明证券自动交易联席主管Matt Schrager表 示。 甲骨文的股价也反映出投资者日益加剧的担忧，从9月10日到周三收盘，其市值已缩水约三分之一。 智通财经APP注意到，曾经保守的数据库巨头甲骨文(ORCL.US)，如今已借债数百亿美元并将其命运与人工智能热潮紧密相连，正迅速成为信贷市场衡量人 工智能风险的风向标。 近几个月来，交易员纷纷涌入该公司的信用违约互换合约。甲骨文在人工智能相关领域的巨额支出、在一系列相互关联交易中的核心作用，以及与微软公司 或Alphabet公司等参与者相比更弱的信用评级，已使这些合约成为市场对冲——甚至做空— ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has further decreased, with significant internal divisions among officials regarding the decision [1][4] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 29.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 70.2% [5] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [3] - The Labor Department has decided to cancel the release of the October non-farm data and postpone the November report to December 16, limiting the Fed's access to recent employment data before the December meeting [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.15% and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling 3.26%, reflecting a broader downturn in Chinese concept stocks [1][2] - Large tech stocks also faced significant losses, with Nvidia down over 3%, AMD down over 7.8%, and Oracle down over 6%, indicating a negative sentiment in the tech sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop after initially rising due to Nvidia's strong earnings report, highlighting concerns over high valuations in the tech sector and the impact of mixed labor market data on Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2][3][7]. Market Performance - Following Nvidia's earnings, the Nasdaq initially surged by 2.58% but ultimately closed down by 2.15%, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 also declining by 0.84% and 1.56%, respectively [3][6]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, spiked over 11% during the trading session, indicating increased investor fear [2]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The latest labor market data showed a significant increase in non-farm employment, with 119,000 jobs added in September, far exceeding the expected 52,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [7]. - As a result, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December dropped to 39.6%, with a 60.4% chance of maintaining current rates [2][7]. Technology Sector Concerns - Major tech stocks, including Oracle, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla, all saw declines, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Nvidia closing down 3% despite earlier gains [6][8]. - The semiconductor sector also faced significant losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling nearly 5%, and individual stocks like Micron and AMD experiencing drops of over 10% and 8%, respectively [8][9]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts expressed concerns about whether AI can generate sufficient revenue to justify the substantial investments made in infrastructure, contributing to the market's downturn [7][8]. - The market is currently grappling with how to balance growth versus value stocks and the allocation between risk assets and safe havens [8]. Bubble Concerns - Ray Dalio noted the presence of a bubble in the market driven by AI-related investments, but he emphasized that external factors would be necessary to burst this bubble, rather than company performance alone [10][11]. - The cost of credit default swaps (CDS) for Oracle has doubled recently, indicating increased market skepticism regarding the company's financial stability amid AI spending [10].

Core Insights - Nvidia's strong earnings report failed to sustain market confidence, leading to a collective decline in major U.S. stock indices [1] Market Performance - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.84% - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.56% - The Nasdaq Composite index dropped by 2.15% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines: - AMD fell over 7% - Oracle decreased by over 6% - Netflix and Nvidia both dropped over 3% - Tesla and Amazon fell over 2% - Microsoft declined by over 1% - Broadcom fell by 2.14% - Qualcomm decreased by 3.90% - Adobe dropped by 1.79% - Salesforce fell by 1.10% [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 3.26% - Notable declines among popular Chinese stocks: - Canadian Solar fell by 18.3% - Daqo New Energy dropped by 9.2% - NIO decreased by 6% - JinkoSolar fell by 5.7% - Other companies like Pony.ai, Xpeng, Xiaomi, Pinduoduo, and Baidu dropped over 4% - However, some stocks saw gains: - NetEase rose by 0.6% - Beike increased by 1.3% - GDS Holdings gained 1.8% - Yatsen Holding rose by 3.3% [1]