观点聚焦 理由 我们认为，阿根廷经济改革有望带来营商环境的全面改善，提升当地盐湖的经济效益和开发效率。 一、阿根廷：南美第二大经济体与重要的新兴市场 1.1 宏观经济：走进南美洲第二大经济体 阿根廷位于南美洲南部，是仅次于巴西的南美第二大经济体。 根据中国商务部，阿根廷国土面积为278 万平方公里，东临大西洋，西部以安第斯山脉与智利为界，北部和东部与玻利维亚、巴拉圭、巴西、乌 拉圭接壤。根据阿根廷国家统计和人口普查局2024年7月的结果，阿根廷全国人口为4706万人，其中白 人和印欧混血人种占95%，布宜诺斯艾利斯市人口约289万人，是全国人口最集中的城市。根据世界银 行和阿根廷国家统计局，按当年汇率计算，2023年阿根廷GDP总量为6226亿美元，是南美洲第二大经济 体，2023年阿根廷人均GDP为1.32万美元，在世界银行的经济体收入水平分组中属于中上收入水平。 图表1：阿根廷在南美洲的地理位置 我们于2024年12月初前往阿根廷，进行了为期一周的产业深度调研，对赣锋锂业、紫金矿业在阿根廷的 盐湖项目进行实地考察，主要观点如下： 核心矛盾：经济改革是阿根廷矿业发展的核心变量。 阿根廷总统米莱的经济改革对矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rio2 Limited has officially commenced construction of the Fenix Gold Mine in the Maricunga Gold Belt, marking a significant milestone for the company and the region [1][3]. Company Overview - Rio2 Limited is focused on developing and operating mining projects, particularly the Fenix Gold Project in Chile, with a commitment to high environmental standards and responsible development [6]. Project Details - The Fenix Gold Project is one of the largest undeveloped gold oxide heap leach projects in the Americas, with a Measured and Indicated mineral resource of 4.8 million ounces of gold [5]. - The total investment for the project is approximately USD 235 million, which includes both initial and sustaining capital [5]. - The construction phase is expected to create employment for at least 1,200 people, while the operational phase will employ around 550 individuals over 17 years [5]. Financial Aspects - The projected construction capital expenditure (capex) for 2025 is estimated at USD 122 million, excluding refundable Chilean VAT tax [3]. - Construction is anticipated to be completed by November 2025, with first gold production expected in January 2026 [3]. Community and Environmental Impact - The project has been designed with a focus on technical, environmental, and social considerations, aiming to minimize its overall impact and footprint [5]. - The mining operation will utilize a run-of-mine heap leach method, eliminating the need for crushing or tailings storage facilities [5].

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto is strategically expanding its lithium operations to enhance its position in the battery metals market, despite facing challenges from weaker lithium prices and market volatility [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment and Expansion - Rio Tinto has announced a $2.5 billion investment to expand its Rincon lithium project in Argentina, targeting a production capacity of 60,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate [1]. - The company completed a $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, making it the world's third-largest lithium miner, with a significant revenue base in Asia [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Challenges - The expansion aligns with Argentina's pro-investment policies, which include tax incentives and regulatory stability for foreign investments [3]. - The lithium market is currently experiencing weaker prices due to oversupply from China and a slowdown in electric vehicle demand, leading to delays or cancellations of other lithium projects [3]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Rio Tinto's stock has shown volatility over the past four years, with returns of -1% in 2021, 18% in 2022, 11% in 2023, and -15% in 2024 [4]. - In Q4 2024, Pilbara iron ore production was 86.5 million tonnes, with shipments at 85.7 million tonnes, reflecting a 1% year-over-year decline [5]. - Mined copper production increased by 13% year-over-year to 697,000 tonnes, driven by improved operations at Oyu Tolgoi and better ore grades at Escondida [5].

撰 文 / 周 洲 设 计 / 琚 佳 来 源 / 彭博社，路透社，金融时报，mining.com等 一场10年前的矿业并购案，现在又浮上水面。 2014年，全球最大的大宗商品交易商瑞士嘉能可公司 (Glencore Plc) 提出与全球第二大矿业巨头力 拓集团 (Rio Tinto Group) 合并，但力拓在几天后就拒绝了。 最近的传闻是，2024年下半年，两家公司花了几个月的时间进行谈判。 这表明，在大型并购热潮席卷全球采矿业之际，形势发生了变化。 2014 年，当嘉能可发出要约之后，力拓马上就坚决拒绝了一项原本有望成为全球矿业史上最大的 交易，由此引发了长达数月的公开争执，也暴露了两家公司巨大的文化差异。嘉能可彼时的CEO伊 万·格拉森伯格（Ivan Glasenberg） 指责力拓误判了铁矿石市场，而力拓则批评嘉能可是短视者。 2024年，当嘉能可提出交易时，却遇到了截然不同的反应。 这一次，力拓愿意谈判。 据知情人士透露，这场从去年秋季开始的数月磋商，双方只有少部分高管参与，有力拓首席执行官 石道成 (Jakob Stausholm) 和嘉能可CEO加里·纳格尔 (Gary Nagle) ，一些知 ...

Core Insights - Rio Tinto is one of the largest and most recognized mining and metals companies globally, with a history spanning over a century [1] - The company's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) have decreased by 12.3% over the past twelve months, primarily due to pressure on iron ore prices [1] Company Overview - Rio Tinto operates in the mining and metals sector, focusing on various commodities including iron ore [1] - The company is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol RIO [1] Market Performance - The decline in Rio Tinto's ADR is attributed to external market pressures affecting iron ore, which is a significant part of its business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto reported a decline in iron ore shipments and production for 2024, while other commodities like copper and bauxite showed growth. The company faces challenges from lower iron ore prices and production guidance for the upcoming years, but maintains a robust project portfolio for long-term growth. Group 1: Iron Ore Production and Shipments - Rio Tinto's iron ore shipments for Q4 2024 were 86.5 million tons, a 1% decline year over year, totaling 328 million tons for the year, also down 1% year over year but within guidance of 323-338 million tons [1] - The company expects Pilbara iron ore shipments for 2025 to be in the range of 323-338 million tons, indicating a potential year-over-year decline of 2% to growth of 3% [6] - Iron ore prices have declined by 27% over the past year due to weak demand in China, although recent optimism has seen prices recover to $100 per ton [16] Group 2: Other Commodities Performance - Bauxite production rose 2% year over year to 15.4 million tons in Q4, with a total of 58.7 million tons for 2024, up 7% year over year, exceeding expectations [3] - Copper production increased by 26% year over year in Q4 to 202 thousand tons, with a total of 697 thousand tons for 2024, marking a 13% increase [5] - Aluminum production for 2024 rose 1% year over year to 3.3 million tons, within the company's guidance [4] Group 3: Financial Outlook and Earnings - Rio Tinto reported a 10% decline in average realized iron ore prices for 2024, while copper and aluminum prices rose by 4% and 8%, respectively [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rio's 2024 revenues is $51.2 billion, indicating a 5% year-over-year dip, with earnings projected to drop 7% to $6.77 per share [11] - Earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 have undergone negative revisions, raising concerns about the company's financial performance [12] Group 4: Future Growth and Investments - Rio Tinto is focusing on building its lithium portfolio to meet rising demand for batteries and electric vehicles, with plans to invest $2.5 billion in the Rincon lithium project [19] - The company has earmarked $10 billion for capital expenditure annually, including $7 billion for existing projects and decarbonization efforts [18] - Despite current challenges, the company maintains a robust portfolio of growth projects, including Simandou and Oyu Tolgoi, which are expected to drive future growth [18]

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, down approximately 16% over the past year, and is currently near its 52-week low, which raises concerns about its future performance and production guidance [1][4]. Financial Performance - RIO reported revenues of $54 billion in fiscal 2023, which is 3.5% higher than the 5-year average, but underlying earnings of $11.8 billion were 15% lower than the 5-year average [11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings is projected at $6.38, indicating a year-over-year decline of 12% [12]. Production Outlook - Copper production is expected to be at the lower end of the previously stated range of 660-720 kt for fiscal 2024, with a potential impact of approximately 50,000 tons due to operational challenges [6]. - Iron ore shipments are forecasted to be between 323-338 Mt in 2024, reflecting a 0.4% year-over-year dip at the midpoint [7]. - Alumina production is anticipated to decline to between 7 Mt and 7.3 Mt for fiscal 2024, down from 7.5 Mt in 2023 [8]. Cost and Pricing Challenges - Pilbara iron ore unit costs are projected to be in the upper half of $21.75-$23.50 per ton for 2024, indicating an increase from $21.50 per ton reported in 2023 [9]. - Iron ore prices have decreased by 29.4% over the past year, currently at $98 per ton, due to weak demand in China [10]. Strategic Initiatives - Rio Tinto has earmarked $10 billion for capital expenditure annually, with $7 billion allocated for existing projects and decarbonization efforts [17]. - The company is focusing on growth projects, including the Simandou iron ore project and Oyu Tolgoi copper project, which are expected to ramp up production significantly by 2028 [18][19]. Acquisition Strategy - In 2022, RIO acquired the Rincon lithium project in Argentina and plans to invest $2.5 billion to expand it, with a mine life expected to be 40 years [20]. - RIO also acquired a 50% stake in Matalco to strengthen its position in the North American recycled aluminum market, where demand is projected to increase by over 70% from 2022 to 2032 [21]. Market Valuation - RIO trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.2, which is lower than the industry average of 12.13, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [27].

Core Viewpoint - Rio2 Limited is advancing construction activities at the Fenix Gold Mine in Chile, with significant milestones achieved and a focus on first gold production expected in January 2026 [1][3][15]. Overview - Pre-construction activities began in 2022, and the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was approved in December 2023 after an 18-month appeal [2]. - Construction activities resumed in October 2024 following successful financing efforts [3]. Financials - The projected construction capital expenditure (capex) for 2025 is estimated at USD 122 million, excluding refundable Chilean VAT [3]. - The total investment in the Fenix Gold Project is approximately USD 235 million, covering initial and sustaining capital [17]. Construction Progress - Bulk earthworks at the plant site are completed, and concrete bases for the processing plant have been poured [4]. - Earthworks for the leach pad stability platform have commenced, designed to be built in four phases over the mine's 17-year life [5]. - Excavation earthworks for the Pregnant Leach Solution (PLS) pond have started, with a capacity of 28,000 cubic meters [6]. Personnel and Safety - Over 531 staff and contractors are currently on-site, with approximately 50% from the Atacama region and 16% being women [7]. - The project achieved 161,917 person-hours worked with no lost time injuries reported by the end of Q4 2024 [8]. Geological and Exploration Activities - A 12,000-meter grade control drilling program will commence in February, focusing on the first three years of production [11]. - A 25,000-meter CSAMT electromagnetic survey will be conducted to identify geological targets for future exploration [12]. Expansion Potential - A preliminary study indicates the potential to expand the mining rate from 20,000 tonnes per day to 80,000 tonnes per day, potentially increasing gold production from approximately 100,000 ounces per annum to a target range of 250,000 to 300,000 ounces per annum [14]. - Baseline studies for an EIA related to the expansion are anticipated to be ready for review by Q4 2026 [14]. Company Leadership - Enrique Garay has returned as Senior Vice President - Geology to lead the geological team in preparation for mining [13].

UKRAINE - 2021/10/08: In this photo illustration, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. logo seen ... [+] displayed on a smartphone and in the background. (Photo Illustration by Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), one of the largest producers of copper, has seen its stock underperform over the last three months, falling by 25% compared to the S&P 500 which was up 3%. Freeport’s stock price movement is aligned with that ...

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