2009年7月，上海市国家安全局突击检查了矿业巨头力拓在上海的办公室。在当时的驻华首席代表胡士泰的电脑里，办案人员发现了让人后背发凉的东西： 那就是国内数十家大中型钢铁企业近乎绝密的商业数据。从详细的采购计划、原料库存，到每月的产量销量，全部都写的一清二楚。 有人痛心地说，要论对中国钢铁生产的了解深度，恐怕连当时的行业主管部门，都比不上这个胡士泰！ 那么这个胡士泰是什么人？他原是中国籍，后加入澳大利亚籍，成了力拓在中国铁矿石业务的核心人物。他可没闲着，一边用各种手段刺探中国钢厂的谈判 底线和行业机密，另一边还"两头吃"，收受一些小钢企的贿赂，帮他们搞到更便宜的长协矿进口配额。几年下来，他个人捞得盆满钵满，仅价值过亿的别墅 就不止一两栋。而在澳大利亚那边，他一度被一些人捧为"贸易英雄"。 你敢相信吗？在十多年前的一场关键商业谈判当中，咱们这边的底牌，竟然被对手摸得是一清二楚。你家库里到底还剩下多少粮，下个月想买多少，你的成 本线到底在哪里？人家都了如指掌。为此我们被别人拿捏得死死的，在长达6年的时间我们足足多付了7000亿的学费！而在这当中起到关键作用的人，竟然 是我们的内鬼。 首先，那些能左右一个支柱行业成本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel mill's winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, demand expectations are weakening, and iron ore prices are under pressure [3] - Mainstream and non - mainstream iron ore shipments are both rising, and with the faster arrival of floating cargoes, the supply of iron ore has significantly increased [5] - Hot metal production has remained stable, with little fluctuation in rigid demand, but the steel mill's winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, leading to weaker demand expectations [5] - In a situation of both increasing supply and demand, the faster arrival of floating cargoes has caused the iron ore port inventory to continue to rise [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 761 (-29) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 760.5 (-31) yuan/ton [10] - The basis of the 05 contract was 33 (+1) yuan/ton; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was 18 (-1) yuan/ton [10] - The prices of various types of imported ores and iron concentrates in Rizhao Port have declined this week compared to last week [12] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream iron ore remains at a high level, and the cumulative year - on - year difference is significantly higher than that of last year [14][16] - The four major mines maintain normal shipping levels [18] - The domestic iron ore production is stable [29] 3.3 Iron Ore Demand - The steel mill's replenishment is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [31][32] - There are differences in the demand for different iron ore varieties [34] - Scrap steel has a substitution effect on iron ore [36] 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - The faster arrival of floating cargoes has led to increased supply and rapid inventory accumulation [38] - The inventory of Australian iron ore has increased significantly [39] 3.5 Iron Ore Cost - Rising oil prices have led to an increase in shipping costs [41]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged above 50,000 points for the first time, closing at 50,115.67, up more than 1,200 points or 2.5 percent, reflecting a broadening market and confidence in growth stories [2][13] - The index has shown steady growth over the past two and a half years, with notable exceptions during specific political events [8][13] Company News - Amazon was the biggest loser on the Dow, falling 5.6 percent after announcing a $200 billion capital spending plan for AI capabilities in 2026, raising concerns about potential returns on such massive investments [5][13] - Other companies like Caterpillar, 3M, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Amgen, and Nvidia saw gains of at least four percent, indicating positive market sentiment towards their performance [5][13] - Stellantis shares plunged over 24 percent after announcing a €22 billion ($26 billion) write-down due to misjudging the shift to electric vehicles, with shares down around 80 percent over the past two years [9][13] - Rio Tinto's shares finished flat after dropping merger talks with Glencore, which would have created a $260 billion mining firm, while Glencore's stock climbed 1.5 percent [10][13] - Toyota's shares increased by two percent after raising profit and sales forecasts for the current fiscal year despite US tariffs [11][13] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the massive investments in AI by companies like Amazon will benefit infrastructure, banking, and other sectors, indicating a ripple effect across the market [5][6] - Confidence in earnings growth is noted, with expectations that equity investors will be rewarded, although volatility is anticipated [6][13]

For more than a decade, billionaire Ivan Glasenberg chased the White Whale of mining M&A, a merger between Glencore (OTC:GLCNF) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) .Close, but No CigarThe most recent round began quietly in mid-December, when the two companies entered formal discussions. Talks accelerated in January once the approach became public, triggering U.K. takeover rules. The confirmation forced Rio to either make a formal offer or walk away by February 5. By that point, advisers had already spent weeks digging ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger talks between multinational mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore have been abandoned, with an estimated valuation of approximately $260 billion for the deal, leading to a decline in stock prices for both companies [1][3]. Group 1: Merger Negotiation Details - Rio Tinto announced the abandonment of the merger plan, stating that the companies could not reach an agreement that would create value for shareholders [3]. - Glencore indicated that Rio Tinto's proposed key terms significantly undervalued Glencore's potential, particularly failing to adequately assess its copper business, which is crucial for energy transition [3]. - This marks the second failed negotiation between the two companies since the end of 2024, with Rio Tinto being restricted from seeking to acquire Glencore again for at least six months under UK regulations [3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and Market Reactions - As of the announcement, Rio Tinto's market capitalization exceeds $180 billion, while Glencore's market capitalization is over $75 billion [5]. - During the negotiations, Glencore sought a share exchange that would allow its investors to hold approximately 40% of the merged entity, higher than Rio Tinto's offer of 38% [5]. - Disagreements over the valuation of coal assets and future development directions, along with Rio Tinto's insistence on retaining its chairman and CEO to lead the new company, contributed to the breakdown of talks [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices continued to decline from their highs, and as short - term market sentiment and capital disturbances came to an end, prices gradually returned to the fundamental logic. The supply side continued to contribute significant increments, the supply remained loose, and port inventories of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly. The domestic terminal steel demand was unlikely to improve significantly. After the Spring Festival, the market trading logic would focus on the recovery of terminal steel demand in the first half of the year, which might fall short of expectations. The weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals was expected to continue, and the high valuation of iron ore was unlikely to be sustained. Overall, the current market was mainly dominated by macro and capital factors. This week, the macro sentiment cooled, the iron ore price valuation was moderately high, and the iron ore price was expected to be weak [4]. - The trading strategy suggested a weak - running trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The iron ore price was expected to run weakly. The single - side trading was expected to be weak, while arbitrage and options trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Iron Core Logic Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% or 15 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.82 million tons, a 7.4% or 6.1 million - ton increase year - on - year, and Brazil's were 6.5 million tons, a 5.5% or 1.7 million - ton increase. The shipments of major overseas mines remained at a high level year - on - year. In 2025, 1.26 billion tons of iron ore were imported, a year - on - year increase of 24 million tons. Since the third quarter of last year, the year - on - year increase in domestic imported iron ore has continued to grow [7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% or 7.3 million tons. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, about 20 million tons for the whole year. It is expected to be in the production ramping - up stage in 2026 and enter the fast - lane of production release in 2027 [9]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly, resulting in a 4 - million - ton increase in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory compared with the previous week. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the domestic iron ore supply - demand pattern remains loose. Since January, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase significantly, with an inventory accumulation of about 15 million tons [11]. - **Domestic Terminal Steel Demand**: In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate new construction was 19%, and the sales area decreased by 17% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. The real - estate market improved marginally but remained at the bottom, while the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly. In the first half of 2026, the demand might fall short of expectations. Since the second half of 2025, domestic steel demand has been declining, and it is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026 on the high - base background of the first half of 2025. Overseas, in 2025, the consumption of iron ore decreased by 1% or 9 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of iron elements increased by 3.5% or 37 million tons year - on - year. From the second quarter to the end of the year, overseas iron - element consumption was at a high level and continued to contribute increments. India's crude - steel output increased by 10% or 15.5 million tons year - on - year in 2025, and its demand remained at a relatively high level [13]. Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: The report provides data on the Platts iron ore price index, the prices of PB powder and Carajás fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder and the cash profit of steel mills [19]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: It presents the import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [21]. - **Profit of Mainstream Steel Mills in East China**: It includes the cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China, the iron - making cost (excluding tax), the cash cost of hot - rolled coils, the cost of billets (excluding tax), and the cash cost of rebar [23]. - **Domestic - Overseas US Dollar Spread**: It shows the spreads between SGX and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore to domestic iron ore [25]. - **Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread**: It provides data on the basis between the optimal delivery product and different contracts, and inter - period spreads such as 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [27]. - **Global Four Major Mines' Shipments**: It shows the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: It includes the inventory of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore at ports [31].

Group 1 - The merger talks between mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore have officially ended, marking the third attempt in over a decade to combine forces, with the potential to create a company valued at over $200 billion [1] - Rio Tinto stated that after thorough due diligence and evaluation, it could not reach an agreement that would create long-term value for shareholders, leading to the decision to abandon the merger discussions [1] - Glencore responded by claiming that Rio Tinto's proposed terms significantly undervalued its potential contributions and did not offer a reasonable premium for control, while also rejecting Rio Tinto's insistence on retaining its current leadership positions post-merger [1] Group 2 - The failed merger attempt occurs against a backdrop of increased activity in the global mining sector, with mining deal values reaching a 13-year high in 2025, driven by rising demand for copper in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers [2] - Standard & Poor's projects that annual copper demand from data centers will grow from approximately 1.1 million tons in 2025 to 2.5 million tons by 2040, indicating a potential supply gap of 10 million tons by 2040 if copper supply does not expand effectively [2] - Glencore has shifted its strategic focus towards copper business growth, aiming to double its annual copper production to 1.6 million tons by 2035 and become one of the largest copper producers globally within the next decade [2]

Core Insights - The abandonment of merger talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore has led to a divided outlook among analysts regarding the future prospects of these companies in the context of critical minerals [1] Company Analysis - Analysts are now reassessing the potential of Rio Tinto and Glencore following the halted merger discussions, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards these companies [1] Industry Context - JPMorgan has characterized the current market environment as "the age of critical minerals," highlighting the growing importance of these resources in the investment landscape [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the aluminum market has deviated from fundamentals, with the focus on factors like the US dollar, liquidity, and precious metals. Despite some marginal changes in supply, the long - term growth logic of aluminum remains unchanged, but it is experiencing a short - term correction [4]. - The report上调s the 2026 overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum production forecasts. However, the market is more sensitive to supply cuts than increases, and the long - term bullish view on aluminum as a hedging asset and its connection to new energy and the new economy persists [4]. - For the short - term market, it is advisable to wait for volatility to subside before making trading decisions [4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Changes and Outlook - Since the beginning of the year, the aluminum price trend has been highly synchronized with volatility, and the trading logic has deviated from aluminum fundamentals. The focus is on the US dollar, liquidity, and precious metals [4]. - There have been marginal changes in the supply side at home and abroad, including the restart of production at some aluminum plants. The report上调s the 2026 electrolytic aluminum production forecasts for both overseas and domestic markets [4]. - The short - term decline in the number of receiving manufacturers is due to high prices screening out less - resilient downstream buyers. The market is more sensitive to supply cuts than increases [4]. - The short - term view is to wait for the volatility to stabilize before trading [4]. 2. Latest Production Launch Tables of Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Plants - **Overseas**: The production expectations of three overseas plants have been revised upwards. The Lista aluminum plant in the US has restarted 31,000 tons of idle capacity after renewing its power contract. The expected restart time of the Grundartangi aluminum plant in Iceland has been advanced, and the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique is expected to have a partial production cut instead of a complete shutdown [7]. - **Domestic**: A northeast domestic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 752,500 tons and a current operating capacity of 420,000 tons plans to restart about 300,000 tons of idle capacity in mid - to - late March [7]. 3. Overseas Aluminum Plant Power Contract Progress - The power contract of the US Lista aluminum plant has been renewed to 2035, and it restarted 31,000 tons of idle capacity in January 2026. Other plants also have different power contract situations and production statuses [9]. 4. Overseas Aluminum Plant Production Launch Schedule - In 2026 and the long - term, there are various production - related activities overseas, including new construction, expansion, and restart of production at different aluminum plants. The annual total planned new production capacity in 2026 is 1.7355 million tons [10]. 5. Expected Table of New Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Projects in 2026 - There are different types of projects in China, such as replacement, expansion, and production restart. The total new production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 1.127 million tons, with limited net - increase capacity from replacement projects [13]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets at Home and Abroad - The report上调s the 2026 overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum net - increase production forecasts by 120,000 tons and 195,000 tons respectively. The supply - demand balance shows a slight deficit in 2026 [16]. - The long - term growth logic of aluminum remains unchanged, and the market should tolerate short - term corrections [16]. 7. Cost and Profit - Alumina prices have been falling since mid - 2025, which is one of the reasons for the increased profits of aluminum plants. Electricity prices and pre - baked anodes are in a range - bound state [22]. - The average profit of electrolytic aluminum has dropped from about 8,700 yuan/ton last week to 7,000 yuan/ton this week, and the average cost has slightly increased to 16,200 yuan/ton due to a 0.01 - yuan/degree increase in electricity prices [26]. 8. Internal - External Price Ratio - The Shanghai - London ratio has fluctuated. After rising to a phased high on January 7, it has declined. The LME aluminum price led the decline, and the domestic market followed. The internal - external price ratio is currently range - bound [31]. - The overseas spot premiums in North America and Japan have increased week - on - week [31]. 9. Downstream and Inventory - The downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low, especially for aluminum sheets, foils, and strips. It is expected to recover after the holiday [45]. - As of Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, while the LME aluminum inventory has decreased. The social inventory of aluminum rods has also increased [48]. - The processing fee of aluminum rods has fluctuated after reaching a high this week [54].

据彭博社报道，当地时间2月5日，嘉能可与力拓谈判彻底破裂。嘉能可坚持要求在合并后公司中占据40%股份，而力拓 高管最终意识到延长谈判将是浪费时间，决定终止交易。 这笔交易的失败对双方都意味着重大挫折。嘉能可过去十年铜产量下降超过40%，正努力说服投资者其业务已实现转 型。而力拓原本希望借此摆脱对铁矿石市场的过度依赖。 交易告吹后，嘉能可ADR股价当日暴跌超6%，投资者开始质疑其能否独立发展铜业务。 最后24小时的崩盘 据彭博社报道，力拓聘请了由资深英国交易撮合者Simon Robey领导的Evercore以及摩根大通和麦格理集团作为顾问。 报道指出，嘉能可引入了资深交易撮合者Michael Klein，后者曾在2023年嘉能可收购Teck Resources的失败交易中与其合 作。 Klein的核心任务是向力拓高管传达嘉能可业务的价值，而嘉能可创始人Glasenberg作为公司最大股东，在截止日期临近 时也更积极参与，部分原因是为了消除力拓对他不愿达成交易的担忧。 但在截止日期前24小时，情况突然恶化。力拓内部越来越清楚地认识到，嘉能可和Glasenberg不会在40%持股要求上做 出太多让步。 嘉能可与力拓 ...