责任编辑：陈钰嘉 报道称，嘉能可和力拓已重启关于潜在合并的谈判，其合并将打造全球最大的矿业公司。 该报周四援引知情人士的话报道称，力拓和嘉能可最迟本周仍在就该交易进行讨论。报道称，力拓与嘉 能可全面合并是讨论的选项之一，但潜在交易的具体框架目前仍无法确定。 相关谈判于去年年底重启，目前仍处于初步阶段。报道称，相关磋商仍可能破裂，双方可能选择不推进 交易。 报道称，嘉能可和力拓已重启关于潜在合并的谈判，其合并将打造全球最大的矿业公司。 该报周四援引知情人士的话报道称，力拓和嘉能可最迟本周仍在就该交易进行讨论。报道称，力拓与嘉 能可全面合并是讨论的选项之一，但潜在交易的具体框架目前仍无法确定。 相关谈判于去年年底重启，目前仍处于初步阶段。报道称，相关磋商仍可能破裂，双方可能选择不推进 交易。 未能立即联系到力拓和嘉能可置评。 未能立即联系到力拓和嘉能可置评。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 ...

Glencore said on Thursday it was in early talks to be acquried by Rio Tinto , , in a combination that would potentially create the world's largest mining company. ...

Core Viewpoint - The comparison between Rio Tinto (RIO) and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) indicates that RIO presents a better value opportunity for investors at this time [1]. Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - Rio Tinto currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), while Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The Zacks Rank emphasizes stocks with positive revisions to earnings estimates, suggesting an improving earnings outlook for RIO [3]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - RIO has a forward P/E ratio of 12.04, significantly lower than WPM's forward P/E of 37.78 [5]. - RIO's PEG ratio is 0.96, while WPM's PEG ratio stands at 1.32, indicating RIO's better valuation relative to its expected earnings growth [5]. - RIO's P/B ratio is 1.72, compared to WPM's P/B of 7.04, further highlighting RIO's undervaluation [6]. - Based on these valuation metrics, RIO earns a Value grade of B, whereas WPM receives a Value grade of F [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore industry will enter a deep adjustment period characterized by "intensified supply relaxation, moderate demand recovery, and a downward shift in the price center," with an annual trend of "stable in the front and declining in the back" [2][34]. - The core contradiction in the industry will shift from "supply shortage" to "insufficient demand," and the focus of competition will be on high - grade resources, cost - control capabilities, and green and low - carbon transformation [2][34]. - Policy regulation will continuously guide the high - quality development of the industry, the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain will tilt towards steel mills, and mining companies will face pressure from profit squeezing and intensified competition [2][34]. - ESG and geopolitical factors are becoming increasingly prominent as important variables in the industry's development [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Annual Market Review - **Initial Surge Phase (Early January - Mid - February)**: Prices rose from about 780 yuan/ton to nearly 840 yuan/ton. The driving factors were the release of domestic steel mills' post - Spring Festival restocking demand, the decline in the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian mines due to seasonal weather, and the market's optimistic expectations for the early - year growth - stabilization policies [3]. - **Decline and Adjustment Phase (Mid - February - Early June)**: Prices oscillated and declined from the high level, reaching an annual low of about 710 - 720 yuan/ton in early June. The reasons were the recovery of Australian and Brazilian shipments after the weather impact subsided, the release of new production capacity of the four major mines, the weak demand for construction steel, the squeeze on steel mill profits, and the increase in port inventories [4]. - **Oscillatory Recovery Phase (Early June - December)**: Prices gradually recovered from the low level and approached the high - level range of 830 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The drivers were the acceleration of domestic infrastructure project implementation, the launch of real - estate support policies, the expansion of steel production capacity in India and ASEAN, the slower - than - expected actual shipment volume of the Simandou project, and the market's optimistic expectations for demand recovery in the second half of the year [5]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: In 2026, the supply of mainstream iron ore is expected to grow. In Oceania, Australia's total output is expected to reach 9.86 billion tons, with an increase of 167.8 million tons year - on - year. In South America, Brazil's total output is expected to reach 4.84 billion tons, with an increase of 50.6 million tons year - on - year [8][10]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: In South Asia, India's iron ore output is expected to continue growing in 2026. With the implementation of the "National Steel Policy 2017," India's iron ore demand and output will be directly boosted, and its imports are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 80% [11]. - **Domestic Mines**: Affected by resource endowment and cost constraints, domestic production shows a slight downward trend. The "Cornerstone Plan" failed to achieve the goal of adding 100 million tons of iron concentrate in 2025, and the domestic mines' substitution effect on imported ores is limited, with the import dependence remaining above 80% [15]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025, China's iron ore demand was weak. The consumption of construction steel decreased significantly, while the demand for manufacturing steel showed structural growth. In 2026, domestic iron ore demand may be further squeezed, but the development of the manufacturing and emerging industries will provide some support [20][21]. - **Overseas Demand**: In 2026, overseas iron ore demand growth is relatively certain. India, ASEAN, and Africa will be the main growth points, while the EU and the US will show a "weak recovery" trend, and Japan and South Korea will have weak demand. The growth quality depends on the policy implementation and production capacity release of emerging economies [26][27]. 3.4 Inventory - The total global iron ore inventory is expected to increase by 8% - 10% year - on - year in 2026, approaching 1.5 billion tons at the end of the year. The inventory pattern will be characterized by "high - level pressure on the total amount and significant structural differentiation," which will continuously suppress prices [2][28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report formulates a supply - demand balance sheet for iron ore to reflect the market supply and demand situation and makes corresponding forecasts for the iron ore supply and demand in 2024 [33]. 3.6 Conclusion and Outlook - **Conclusion**: The industry will enter a deep adjustment period in 2026, with the core contradiction shifting and the competition focus changing. Policy regulation will guide the industry's high - quality development, and ESG and geopolitical factors will have a greater impact [34]. - **Outlook**: The supply will be loose, the global iron ore output is expected to reach 26.78 billion tons, and the price center will decline. The Simandou project will reshape the supply pattern. The demand will show a moderate recovery, mainly from emerging economies. The profit distribution will tilt towards steel mills, and policies at home and abroad will have a complex impact on the industry [35][36].

Core Insights - Saga Metals has reported high-grade results from initial drilling at its Radar iron-titanium-vanadium project in Labrador, indicating that its Trapper target may rival the nearby Hawkeye zone [1][3]. Company Summary - Saga Metals is one of the few exploration companies in Canada focusing on critical metals such as titanium and vanadium, with no existing vanadium mines in the country [3]. - The company has raised approximately $6 million to support its drilling activities at the Trapper site [7]. Drilling Results - Highlight hole R-0009 returned 296 metres grading 39.75% iron oxide, 7.46% titanium oxide (TiO₂), and 0.25% vanadium oxide (V₂O₅) from a depth of 2.5 metres, including 63 metres at 44% iron oxide, 9% TiO₂, and 0.25% V₂O₅ [2][6]. - Another significant hole, R-0008, yielded 269.36 metres at 36.21% iron oxide, 6.57% TiO₂, and 0.244% V₂O₅ from 3.4 metres depth, with notable sections grading 45.63% iron oxide and 8.4% TiO₂ [6]. - The iron grades from the Trapper results are reported to be 124% higher than the best hole assays at Hawkeye, with titanium grades 105% higher and vanadium content 37% higher [6]. Market Context - The demand for titanium in the aerospace sector is projected to reach 1.6 million tonnes by 2044, with significant supply controlled by Russia and China [4]. - Saga's ongoing 15,000-metre drilling program at Trapper aims to support an indicated resource estimate to be released later this year [4]. Stock Performance - Following the announcement of drilling results, Saga's shares increased by 15% to C$0.59, valuing the company at C$41.9 million, with a 12-month trading range of C$0.20 to C$0.66 [5].

以下文章来源于因歪斯汀小明 ，作者因特瑞斯汀 小明 因歪斯汀小明 . 保护我方金融消费者！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 澳洲矿区 此前锂下行周期澳矿都在拼命降本增效 ， 包括开采高品位区域 、 改造设备提高回收率 、 缩减资本开支等方式 。 除三家关停矿山外 ， 财务压 力山大的MRL被迫出售了其30%的锂业务给韩国浦项制铁 。 澳矿在2026年新增产能为Greenbushes早在2018年规划的三期项目 （ 6.5万吨 ） ， 市场更关注的边际变化可能是 —— 关停矿山在锂上行周 期复产 。 但 ， 锂矿价格预期稳定在复产决策线上方只是必要条件之一 ， 实际可复产量＜关停量 。 澳矿复产必选题是Pilbara的高成本Ngungaju项目 （ 1.7万吨 ） ， 若作出决策 ， PLS能够给出澳洲最快的复产准备时间 ， 约为4个月 。 关停 三家各有各的问题 ： Bald Hill此前经历过非常痛苦的23年复产24年再停产过程 ， 复产决策取决于MRL的运营压力 ； Finniss重启需要进行融 资 ， 这延长了复 ...

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Industry Overview - The global lithium market is entering a new growth cycle after a challenging 2025, with prices having fallen approximately 90% from their 2022 peak due to slowed electric vehicle (EV) demand and increased supply [1] - The market is projected to expand from $13.9 billion in 2024 to $55.5 billion by 2032, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 19% [4] Demand Drivers - Electric vehicles will continue to drive lithium demand, complemented by strong growth in solar power installations that enhance the use of battery energy storage systems (BESS) [2] - Artificial intelligence is creating new lithium needs, as massive AI data centers are increasingly incorporating lithium-ion batteries to manage peak energy use [3] Key Players Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto aims to become a major lithium producer, having completed a $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, which provides access to significant lithium resources [7] - The company plans to increase capacity at its Tier 1 lithium operations to over 200,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per year by 2028 [7] - Rio Tinto is also expanding its lithium operations in South America, with a $2.5 billion investment in the Rincon project in Argentina, expected to produce up to 60,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually by 2028 [8] Lithium Americas - Lithium Americas is focusing on the U.S. market with its Thacker Pass project, which is expected to produce up to 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, potentially making the U.S. the second-largest lithium producer [12] - The project has received strong government support, including a 5% stake acquisition by the U.S. Department of Energy and a $435 million loan from a larger $2.23 billion package [13] Albemarle - Albemarle is enhancing its global lithium conversion capacity through strategic projects, with production milestones supporting growth [15] - The company expects to achieve around $450 million in cost and productivity gains in 2025, exceeding initial targets [16] - Albemarle's scale and focus on cost management position it well to capture rising lithium demand globally [17] Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) - SQM is expanding its lithium production capacity, targeting 240,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate by 2026 in Chile and ramping up lithium hydroxide capacity to 100,000 metric tons by the end of 2025 [19] - The company operates a lithium hydroxide refinery in China and is advancing the Mt. Holland project in Australia, further strengthening its global supply chain [20] - SQM anticipates long-term lithium demand to outpace supply, positioning itself to grow market share in the EV battery sector [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's significant progress in gaining pricing power over iron ore, transitioning from a passive role to an active one in the global market, particularly by the end of 2025 [3][11][23]. Group 1: Historical Context - Since the establishment of the global iron ore long-term contract mechanism in 1981, China, as the largest consumer, has been dominated by Western countries like the US and Australia in pricing power, leading to substantial profit losses [1][3]. - The pricing system centered around the US S&P iron ore index has constrained Chinese enterprises for over four decades, limiting their negotiation power [5][7]. Group 2: Recent Developments - In December 2025, major mining companies, including Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, announced a shift from the US S&P index to pricing standards more aligned with China's market realities, marking a significant change in the pricing dynamics [11][13]. - This shift is a result of long-term negotiations with China's Mineral Resources Group, which has consolidated purchasing power, allowing China to negotiate on equal footing with global mining giants [9][11]. Group 3: Impact of Renminbi Internationalization - The move towards Renminbi (RMB) settlement for iron ore trade, initiated by BHP in October 2025, has opened avenues for reducing reliance on the US dollar, enhancing China's bargaining position [17][19]. - The transition to RMB settlement not only mitigates exchange rate risks for Chinese companies but also creates a closed-loop system for raw material imports and finished product exports, lowering transaction costs [19][21]. Group 4: Significance of Pricing Index Change - The adoption of local pricing indices, such as the "My Steel" index, reflects a shift in the international mining community's recognition of China's market influence, allowing China to move from being a price taker to a price maker [21][23]. - This change in pricing benchmarks is seen as a milestone, as it aligns more closely with China's actual supply and demand, benefiting the local steel industry [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore supply-demand relationship is statically loose. The supply increase is mainly from non-mainstream mines and those in Guinea. The domestic demand faces downward pressure, while overseas demand will see a slight increase. Port inventories will continue to accumulate, and iron ore prices may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong due to supply contraction, steel mill复产, winter storage, and construction start expectations. In the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure as supply increases and demand remains weak [3][44]. - In terms of spot-futures and inter-month arbitrage, the mismatch between the realization of supply increase expectations and the fluctuation rhythm of hot metal production may bring arbitrage opportunities. For example, in March, attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - period positive spread and spot - futures reverse spread [3][44]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, if the supply increase is realized, iron ore may change from a relatively strong variety in the black commodities to a relatively weak one. Opportunities for the contraction of the ratio of iron ore to coking coal and coke can be considered, as well as the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio after the supply increase of iron ore is realized [3][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Weak at Home, Strong Abroad, with a Slight Steady Increase 1.1 Domestic Demand: Still Under Pressure - In 2025, from January to November, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 5.3%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the decline widened by 1.0 percentage points compared with the first 10 months. Real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year from January to November, but the growth rate slowed down [8][11][12]. - In 2025, China's steel consumption was 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In 2026, the steel demand is expected to be 790 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Due to the real estate market not bottoming out, the demand for construction steel in 2026 may be weaker than expected, with the national steel demand decreasing by more than 2.0% year - on - year [17]. - In 2026, constrained by the decline in domestic steel demand, steel mills may find it difficult to maintain profits under inventory pressure. According to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the pig iron output is estimated to be 855 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons [23][26]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Steady Growth - The Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute predicts that the global steel consumption in 2025 was 1.719 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and in 2026, the global steel demand will be 1.736 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2026 will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, mainly driven by the strong performance of India, some ASEAN, and Middle East and North African countries [24]. - Considering China's large base of steel demand, it is expected that the global steel demand will increase by 0.8% year - on - year in 2026. The steel demand of countries other than China will increase by 3.5% year - on - year, which translates to an increase of 33.5 million tons in 62% iron ore demand [24][26]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the iron ore demand in 2026 is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons. Overseas, the iron ore demand is expected to increase by 33.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons in 2026 [26]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - Mainstream Mines are Stable, Focus on Increment from Emerging Mines 2.1 Australian and Brazilian Mainstream Mines: Goal - Oriented, with Steady Growth - In 2025, the world's four major iron ore giants all achieved or exceeded their annual production or shipment targets. In 2026, the total output of the four major mines is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons, an increase of 18 million tons compared with the actual output in 2025. The supply is abundant, and the sales volume in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half, with a total sequential increase of 36.6 million tons [27][30][38]. - Vale and Rio Tinto will be the main contributors to the increase in the second half of the year, with sequential increases of 15 million tons and 13 million tons respectively. BHP's increase is the smallest, only 1.48 million tons, indicating limited production growth space. FMG's sales volume will increase by 7.12 million tons in the second half of the year, showing moderate expansion [30][38][40]. 2.2 Foreign Non - Mainstream Mines and Domestic Mines: Guinea and India Contribute the Main Increment - In 2025, the iron ore shipments from non - Australian and non - Brazilian regions increased significantly. In 2026, the Simandou project in Guinea will contribute the main increment, with an estimated output of 20 million tons from the north and south blocks combined. India's iron ore production and sales are expected to continue to grow. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines in 2026 is 34 million tons [33]. - In 2025, the output of domestic iron concentrate was estimated to be 243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8 million tons. In 2026, the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is expected to be 2 - 3.5 million tons, mainly from the technological transformation and expansion of leading enterprises. However, due to resource, environmental protection, and international ore price constraints, the possibility of significant growth is low [35]. 2.3 Supply Summary - The total output of the four major foreign mines is expected to increase by 18 million tons in 2026. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines is 34 million tons, and the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is 2 - 3.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore supply will increase in 2026, with an estimated year - on - year increment of 54 - 55.5 million tons [38][40]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Steel Mills Control Inventories, Ports Face Pressure 3.1 Port Inventory: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation - At the end of December, the inventory of 45 ports was 159 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of 6.71%. In 2026, the iron ore supply - demand relationship is statically loose, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate [41]. 3.2 Steel Mills: Winter Storage is Delayed, and the Low - Inventory Model Continues - The current inventory level is at a low point in 2025. Due to steel mill maintenance in December and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the low - inventory model of steel mills remains unchanged. It is expected that steel mills will start to replenish inventory from January to February 2026 and then maintain a relatively low - inventory structure [42]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary and Trading Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year - In terms of supply - demand pattern, in 2026, the global iron ore supply will increase by about 54 - 55.5 million tons, the demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. Steel mills maintain a cautious approach and adopt a low - inventory management strategy for raw materials [44]. - Overall, the iron ore price may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong, while in the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure. In terms of arbitrage, attention can be paid to spot - futures and inter - month arbitrage in March, as well as inter - variety arbitrage opportunities such as the contraction of the iron ore - coking coal/coke ratio and the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio [3][44][45].