证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 力拓 2025Q4 铝土矿权益产量同比持平至 1539.7 万吨，铜权益产量同比增加 5%至 24 万吨，碳酸 锂权益当量产量为 1.5 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 经营活动情况 1.铝 1）铝土矿 2025Q4 铝土矿产量 1539.7 万吨，同比持平，环比减少 6%。 Amrun 维持了高工厂利用率。Gove 因计划内检修导致产量下 降。 2025 年铝土矿产量 6240 万吨，同比增加 6%。反映出安全生 产体系持续提升效果及稳定的运营表现。 2）氧化铝 2025Q4 氧化铝产量 196.9 万吨，同比减少 1%，环比增加 4%。运营表现良好，Yarwun 和 Alumar 工厂性能提升带来稳 健业绩。Vaudreuil 工厂在第三季度计划停产后恢复正常运营。 Yarwun 工厂方面，公司宣布自 2026 年 10 月起将减产 40%， 以延长该工厂运营寿命至 2035 年，并为探索进一步延长寿命 和现代化改造方 ...

分析人士指出， 在金属需求飙升、关键矿产供应趋紧的背景下，全球矿业股已跃升至基金经理"必配清单"的前列，预示着该板块或将迎来新一轮超 级周期。 自2025年初以来，MSCI金属与矿业指数累计上涨近90%，大幅跑赢半导体、全球银行以及美股七巨头（Magnificent Seven）。而随着机 器人、电动汽车以及人工智能（AI）数据中心的快速发展不断将金属价格推向新高，这波行情丝毫没有停歇迹象。 这种强势表现与此前几年形成鲜明反差。此前矿业板块一度不受青睐，受制于大宗商品价格剧烈波动等因素，但如今，曾大量配置科技和金 融股的基金经理，似乎重新对矿业板块获得信心。 Pepperstone Group Ltd.研究策略师Dilin Wu表示："矿业股正悄然从一个乏味的防御型配置，转变为投资组合中的核心支柱——这是少数 几个既能受益于货币政策变化，又能应对日益动荡地缘政治环境的板块之一。" 摩根士丹利分析师、由Alain Gabriel领衔的团队指出："即便自然资源的战略重要性已显著上升，这一估值差距仍然存在。" Gabriel还指出，矿业公司越来越倾向于"收购而非自建"。当前行业内并购活动频繁，典型案例包括英美资源集 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global mining stocks are experiencing a significant surge in demand due to soaring metals prices and tight supplies, indicating a potential new supercycle in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - MSCI's Metals and Mining Index has gained nearly 90% since the start of 2025, outperforming sectors like semiconductors and global banks [1][2]. - Copper prices have surged by 50% during the same period, with analysts also optimistic about other minerals such as aluminum, silver, nickel, and platinum [2]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Fund managers are increasingly favoring mining stocks, with European fund managers reporting a net 26% overweight in the sector, the highest in four years [4]. - The sector is viewed as a crucial portfolio anchor, benefiting from changing monetary policies and geopolitical volatility [3]. Group 3: Valuation and M&A Activity - The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources index is trading at a forward price-to-book ratio of approximately 0.47, representing a 20% discount to its long-term average [5]. - There is a trend towards mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector, with notable transactions such as Anglo American's acquisition of Teck Resources and potential mergers involving Rio Tinto and Glencore [6]. Group 4: Supply Dynamics and Future Outlook - The mining sector is facing supply deficits, which is expected to support higher commodity prices and valuation multiples [7]. - Major miners like BHP Group and Rio Tinto still rely heavily on iron ore, but there is a shift towards copper-focused M&A due to the decline of the last China-led supercycle [8]. Group 5: Cautionary Perspectives - Some analysts express caution regarding the rapid price increases in mining stocks, with Bank of America downgrading the sector to underweight in Europe due to potential economic risks [9]. - Concerns about non-linear price movements in assets have led to a more cautious approach, although the miners are considered inexpensive [10].

自1981年铁矿石长协机制建立以来，先后经历了年度长协谈判和指数定价机制。中国作为全球最大的铁 矿石消费国，年进口量在12亿吨以上，但面临铁矿石定价权缺失的问题。 2010年至今，四大矿山以普氏指数为基准的定价机制，持续被市场质疑存在样本数量小和易被操纵的问 题。 值得关注的是，近期，力拓和FMG改变了供应中国铁矿石的定价基准，不再参考普氏指数。未来，铁 矿石定价或经历多指数并行阶段，有助于打破普氏指数垄断，重塑全球定价格局。 两大矿商更换铁矿石定价基准 据了解，日前，中国矿产资源集团有限公司（简称中国矿产）旗下钢厂收到通知，力拓与FMG将停止 在铁矿石长期合同中使用普氏指数。力拓计划在2026年1月和2月对运往中国的铁矿石采用Fastmarkets指 数作为参考基准试运行，FMG则使用Mysteel指数和Argus指数的平均值。力拓现有长期合同原定于2026 年2月到期，FMG合同原定于2025年年底到期。作为与中国矿产持续谈判的一部分，力拓和FMG均已同 意将与中国矿产的长期供货合同延长6个月。 图为2025年中国铁矿石进口来源结构 值得注意的是，随着2025年11月中国企业深度参与开发的几内亚西芒杜铁矿 ...

力拓1月21日公布的第四季度铜产量超出预期，受蒙古国奥尤陶勒盖（Oyu Tolgoi）矿地下产能扩张推动，全球最大铜矿智利埃斯孔迪达（Escondida）产量 下降的影响被抵消。 报告显示，第四季度综合铜产量同比增长5%至24万吨，高于金融数据分析与研究平台Visible Alpha的普遍预估214,400吨。 全年铜产量增长11%至88.3万吨，高于力拓产量指引86-87.5万吨的上限。 | Production2 | | Q4 2025 | vs Q4 2024 | 2025 | vs 2024 | 2025 guidance | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) | Mt | 91.3 | +7% | 326.2 | -1% | 323 - 338 (at lower end) | | Pilbara iron ore production (100% basis) | Mt | 89.7 | +4% | 327.3 | -% | NA | | IOC3 iron o ...

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characte ...

Rio Tinto has until Feb. 5 to inform the U.K. Takeover Panel if it intends to make an offer for Glencore. ...

力拓(RIO.US)涨近5%，最高触及89.78美元，创下历史新高。消息面上，力拓第四季度铁矿石和铜产量 强劲增长，得益于早前天气干扰后的业务反弹以及其旗舰铜资产的持续产能提升。期内，皮尔巴拉 (Pilbara)铁矿石发货量同比增长7%至9130万吨，产量同比增长4%至8970万吨，创下季度记录；铜产量 同比增长5%至24万吨。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - Gold and silver experienced significant price increases in 2025, with gold rising over 60% and silver surging over 150%, continuing into 2026 as geopolitical tensions drive investors towards safe-haven assets [1] - Copper is emerging as a key investment opportunity, having risen around 40% in 2025, with expectations for further price increases due to new demand drivers [2][10] Copper Market Dynamics - The demand for copper is being fueled by its essential role in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and the AI economy, with massive data centers requiring substantial amounts of copper [5] - China, as the largest copper consumer, is actively securing long-term supplies, contributing to a lasting shortage in the market as demand outpaces supply [6] Investment Opportunities in Copper Stocks - Ero Copper Corp. is positioned well with record production of 16,664 tonnes of copper concentrate at a low cash cost of $2 per pound, and is advancing the Furnas Copper-Gold Project [7][8] - BHP Group Limited is targeting around 2 million tons of copper production per year by the 2030s, with significant investments in expanding operations [11][12] - Rio Tinto is developing major projects like Resolution Copper and Oyu Tolgoi, which is set to be one of the largest copper mines globally by 2030 [14][15] - Southern Copper Corporation holds the largest copper reserves in the industry and has a $15 billion capital investment plan, focusing on major projects in Peru [16][17] Financial Projections - Ero Copper's 2026 sales and EPS are expected to grow by 38% and 100% year-over-year, respectively, with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [9] - BHP's fiscal 2026 EPS is projected to grow by 23%, also holding a Zacks Rank of 1 [13] - Rio Tinto's 2026 sales and EPS are estimated to grow by 6% each, with a Zacks Rank of 1 [16] - Southern Copper's 2026 sales and EPS are expected to grow by 10% and 18%, respectively, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [18]

Rio Tinto has announced an 8% year-on-year (YoY) increase in copper equivalent production for 2025, with shipments rising by 5%. This growth was largely driven by the successful ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi project. In the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025), Pilbara iron ore operations reported a record 4% production increase and 7% rise in shipments YoY. The Simandou project also saw rapid progress, with operations commencing and the first shipment dispatched in Q4. Rio Tinto's aluminium sector reported s ...