Chips took the lead after "The market is seeing some strength in areas like technology and consumer discretionary and it's flying in the face of the government shutdown," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at "It's a wave and waves don't go on forever; it will eventually crest and decline," Pavlik added. "But where are we this cycle of the wave? It's impossible to know." The federal government remained shuttered for the sixth day as lawmakers idled in a partisan impasse. The shutdown has postpo ...

Quantum Computing - Quantum Computing had a strong week with positive news from an investor conference and an oversubscribed private placement of $750 million, yet experienced a decline of over 10% following this announcement [2][4] - The sector is currently very hot, and the recent pullback presents a buying opportunity, particularly around the $20.50 to $21 range, with limited downside risk [4][5] - The stock has increased approximately 239% over the last six months, indicating strong performance despite the recent downturn [13] Costco - Costco is viewed as mildly bullish due to significant support levels just below the current trading price, with a focus on maintaining stability rather than expecting a large upward movement [14][15] - A put spread strategy is being employed, selling the 910-900 put spread to capitalize on the current price level, with a maximum risk of $550 [15][16] - The stock has shown resilience around the $90.32 level, which has been a low point in recent trading sessions, and further downside could see it testing the $89 level [18][19] Starbucks - Starbucks is experiencing downward movement amidst store closures and layoffs, but there is technical support just below the current trading price, similar to Costco [24][25] - A put spread strategy is also being implemented for Starbucks, selling the 85-80 put spread with a target break-even of $82.50 by October 31 [26][27] - The stock is currently trading around $83.08, with critical support levels identified at $82.67 and $80, indicating potential areas for price stabilization [28][32]

Starbucks’s “Project Bloom” was months in the making and days in execution: Inside the week of job cuts and store closures https://t.co/S8NgkJOmUm ...

Core Insights - Starbucks has faced significant challenges in 2023, with its stock declining over 25% from its year-to-date high and missing Q3 earnings estimates by nearly 28% [1][2] - The company is implementing a restructuring plan called "Back to Starbucks," which includes layoffs and store closures to address declining sales and transactions [3][4] Financial Performance - Starbucks reported a small revenue increase in Q3, but comparable store sales and transactions have significantly declined throughout the fiscal year [4] - The company is expected to incur $150 million in employee separation costs and $850 million related to store closures as part of its restructuring plan [7] Strategic Initiatives - The "Back to Starbucks" plan includes a $1 billion restructuring, the return of condiment bars, a shift in marketing strategy, and increased pricing transparency [4][6] - The company has announced plans to close stores and conduct layoffs, indicating a shift away from growth mode [9] Competitive Landscape - Dutch Bros, a competitor, has shown stronger performance with a 28% year-over-year revenue growth and a 44.44% earnings beat last quarter [11][12] - Analysts predict Dutch Bros will outperform Starbucks over the next year, with a price target representing nearly 52% upside potential [12] Market Sentiment - Starbucks has a current dividend yield of 2.81%, but its payout ratio of 105.17% raises concerns about sustainability [8] - Despite a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, other stocks are being recommended over Starbucks, indicating a cautious market sentiment [14][15]

Group 1: Costa Coffee Sale - Coca-Cola is evaluating the sale of Costa Coffee, with Bain Capital emerging as a potential buyer, following initial discussions with private equity firms [3][4] - Costa Coffee was acquired by Coca-Cola for £3.9 billion (approximately 34.7 billion yuan) seven years ago, but is now being sold for £2 billion (approximately 19.4 billion yuan), indicating a significant decline in value [3][4] - The performance of Costa has deteriorated since its acquisition, with revenue dropping from £1.3 billion in 2018 to a slower growth rate, and only 400 new stores added globally in seven years [3][4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The coffee market is facing intense competition from established brands like Starbucks and emerging players such as Luckin Coffee and McCafé, which are impacting Costa's market share [4][5] - Costa's growth in China has been particularly challenging, failing to meet its target of 1,000 stores, with only around 500 currently operational [4][5] Group 3: McDonald's Expansion Plans - McDonald's plans to open nearly 10,000 new stores globally within four years, aiming to surpass its competitor, Mixue Ice City, which currently has 46,479 stores [6][8] - The strategy includes expanding in both urban and rural areas, focusing on increasing brand visibility and reducing operational costs through efficient supply chain management [6][8] Group 4: Goyard's Performance - Goyard's revenue surged by 64% to €810 million in the 2024 fiscal year, with a significant portion of sales coming from international markets [9][10] - The brand has maintained a high resale value, surpassing Hermès with a 104% retention rate, indicating strong consumer demand despite the overall luxury market downturn [9][10] Group 5: Mijia Ice City Acquisition - Mijia Ice City has acquired a 53% stake in Fresh Beer Fulu Family for approximately 297 million yuan, expanding its product offerings into the fresh beer market [11][12] - Fresh Beer Fulu Family, established in 2021, focuses on affordable fresh beer products, with prices ranging from 5.9 yuan to 9.9 yuan per 500mL [11][12] Group 6: TOP TOY's Market Position - TOP TOY, a brand spun off from Miniso, reported revenues of 6.79 billion yuan in 2022, with projections of 19.09 billion yuan by 2024, but struggles to differentiate itself from competitors like Pop Mart [14][15] - The brand primarily relies on collaborations with international IPs, which limits its brand recognition and profitability compared to Pop Mart's unique IP creations [15][16]

Market Expansion - A coffee chain, rivaling Starbucks, is expanding into the American market [1]

Starbucks’s “Project Bloom” was months in the making and days in execution: Inside the week of job cuts and store closures https://t.co/trNS6KOTBa ...

Core Insights - The coffee chain has initiated "Project Bloom," which was developed over several months and executed in just a few days [1] Group 1 - The project signifies a strategic move by the coffee chain to enhance its operations and customer experience [1]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 over the past five years, prompting a reevaluation of its role in investment portfolios [1] Company Performance - Starbucks has consistently increased its dividend payments for 14 years, with a current dividend yield approaching 3%, which is near its highest level [3] - Revenue growth for Starbucks has averaged a single-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since before the pandemic, which is insufficient for market-beating performance [4] Strategic Options - Starbucks is exploring strategic options for its China business, which has not rebounded as expected post-pandemic [2] - The company is undergoing a transformation under new CEO Brian Niccol, who aims to revitalize the brand and improve the customer experience by closing underperforming locations, with an associated cost of around $1 billion [15][16] Alternative Investment Opportunities - **Academy Sports & Outdoors**: - Plans to open up to 25 new locations in 2025, with a goal of 150 additional locations by 2028, potentially leading to double-digit growth [6][7] - Currently has a dividend yield of 1%, which may not attract income investors immediately, but long-term growth prospects are promising [9] - **Arcos Dorados**: - Operates over 2,400 McDonald's locations in Latin America and the Caribbean, with reported revenue growth of 15% when adjusted for currency fluctuations [10][11] - Offers a more attractive dividend yield of 3.5% and retains a significant portion of earnings for future growth [12] - Generates additional revenue through rental income from sub-franchised locations, enhancing its investment appeal [13]

Core Insights - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of language in investing, suggesting that the traditional advice of "buy low, sell high" is flawed. Instead, the focus should be on "buy high and try not to sell," advocating for long-term ownership of great companies [1][3][6]. Investment Strategy - The six traits of a "Rule Breaker" stock include being a top dog and first mover in an important emerging industry, and being labeled as overvalued by financial media, which can indicate a potential investment opportunity [3][4]. - Historical examples of successful investments include companies like Amazon, Tesla, and Netflix, which were often considered overvalued at the time of investment but later proved to be excellent long-term holdings [4][6]. Company Examples - Intuitive Surgical is highlighted as a company that exemplifies the traits of a Rule Breaker stock, transitioning from traditional surgery to robot-assisted surgery, and has seen significant growth despite being labeled as overvalued [4][6]. - Palantir Technologies is discussed as a potentially overvalued firm with a PE ratio exceeding 600, prompting interest from contrarian investors [5][6]. Market Perspective - The discussion reflects a broader skepticism towards traditional valuation metrics, suggesting that focusing solely on earnings and cash flow outputs can lead to missed opportunities. Instead, attention should be paid to inputs such as leadership, innovation, and brand strength [6][8]. - The narrative includes a cautionary tale about missing out on significant investment opportunities, such as Yahoo in the late 1990s, due to an overemphasis on valuation [7][8]. Conclusion - The key takeaway from the investment philosophy is to let winners run high and to focus on long-term growth rather than short-term trading strategies. This approach encourages investors to hold onto high-potential stocks rather than selling prematurely [13][14].