Core Insights - Sea Limited is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.99 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 115.2% and revenues of $5.12 billion, which is a 31.1% increase compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 3%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are significant indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3] Revenue Projections - The consensus estimate for 'Revenue- E-Commerce' is projected at $3.62 billion, representing a year-over-year change of +28.4% [4] - 'Revenue- Digital Financial Services' is expected to reach $799.75 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +54% [5] - 'Revenue- Other Services' is projected to be $36.66 million, reflecting a +19.4% change from the prior year [5] User Metrics - Analysts forecast 'Quarterly active users' to be 664, up from 648 in the same quarter last year [6] - The estimate for 'Quarterly paying users' is 60, compared to 53 in the previous year [6] EBITDA Estimates - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Digital Entertainment' is expected to reach $357.85 million, up from $302.80 million year-over-year [6] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Digital Financial Services' is projected at $249.39 million, compared to $164.68 million in the same quarter last year [7] Stock Performance - Shares of Sea Limited have decreased by 3.4% in the past month, contrasting with a +1.2% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite [7]

Core Viewpoint - The partnership between Indonesia's largest streaming platform Vidio and Southeast Asian e-commerce giant Shopee marks a significant step in enhancing the digital ecosystem and creating a more attractive shopping experience for customers [1] Group 1: Shopee's New Fee Policy - Shopee Indonesia has introduced a new order processing fee of 1,250 Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 0.56 RMB) per completed transaction, applicable to all sellers on the platform [1][2] - New sellers and those without a Star rating are exempt from this fee for their first 50 orders, aimed at reducing the initial operational burden and encouraging more sellers to join [2] - The new fee structure is expected to pressure sellers, particularly those relying on low-price strategies, as they may struggle to absorb these additional costs without raising prices [2][3] Group 2: Financial Pressures and Strategic Shifts - Shopee's decision to implement these fees is driven by significant logistics costs, which account for approximately 17% of the total transaction value in Indonesia [3] - The company is transitioning from a "burning money" expansion strategy to a "profit-first" approach, reflecting a broader trend in the cross-border e-commerce industry [4][5] - Shopee aims to optimize its financial model by leveraging its scale and increasing fees, which is indicative of a shift towards profitability in the competitive landscape [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - Shopee remains the market leader in Southeast Asia, holding a 46% market share in Indonesia, followed by local competitor Tokopedia at 23% [6] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly with TikTok's acquisition of a majority stake in Tokopedia, which could significantly enhance TikTok's market presence [6][8] - The Indonesian e-commerce market is projected to grow rapidly, driven by a young population and government support for digital payments and logistics [6] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - Shopee faces challenges from increased regulatory scrutiny and rising compliance costs, which could impact its operations in Indonesia [9] - The company must adapt to a market where low-price competition is reaching its limits, necessitating a shift in strategy to maintain growth [9] - The rise of TikTok Shop, which has seen a significant increase in seller numbers and transaction volumes, poses a formidable challenge to Shopee's market dominance [8]

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "buy" rating for Sea Ltd, reaffirming a target price of $200, indicating a potential upside of approximately 24% over the next 12 months, driven by confidence in the improvement of Sea's core business and a more rational competitive environment in the e-commerce sector [1][2]. E-commerce Business - The competitive landscape in Southeast Asia's e-commerce market is becoming more rational, particularly for Shopee, allowing Sea to maintain growth without sacrificing profit margins [1][6]. - UBS highlights that Shopee's pricing strategy has effectively limited the risk of a new price war, enabling the company to grow at or above the market average while improving profitability [6]. Financial Services - SeaMoney, the digital financial service segment, is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to rise from $1.22 billion in 2022 to $3.45 billion in 2025, potentially achieving profitability around 2025 [9]. - Cost control and operational leverage are key factors in the expected profitability of SeaMoney, alongside its synergy with Shopee's ecosystem [9]. Gaming Business - The digital entertainment segment, Garena, is expected to recover slightly after a decline, with revenues projected to rise from $1.81 billion in 2023 to $2.55 billion in 2025, supported by existing game management and new market expansions [10]. - Despite challenges, Garena is anticipated to provide stable cash flow and support overall profitability for Sea [10]. Financial Projections - UBS forecasts Sea's total revenue to grow from $12.70 billion in 2023 to $21.68 billion in 2025, driven primarily by e-commerce and financial services [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve significant EBIT growth, with projections of $3.05 billion in 2025, and EPS anticipated to increase from $1.83 in 2024 to $4.11 in 2025 [3][5]. Valuation Comparison - Sea's current valuation metrics, such as EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios, are considered attractive compared to peers in the high-growth internet sector, suggesting potential for valuation expansion [4].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1]. - The content may include advertisements and promotional materials, with the website potentially receiving compensation from third parties [1].

Core Insights - Sea Limited has successfully rebuilt its business after a significant decline in stock value, dropping 91% from its peak in late 2021 [1][2] - The company is now a more disciplined and profitable enterprise, with all three core segments—Shopee, Monee, and Garena—generating positive operating income [2][14] - The focus for long-term investors is on the next phase of growth, which may be more sustainable than previous growth periods [3] Segment Summaries Shopee: E-commerce Growth - Shopee holds a dominant 48% market share in Southeast Asia's e-commerce sector and is focusing on deepening monetization rather than merely increasing user numbers [5][6] - Strategies for improving take rates include enhanced seller ads, logistics services, financial products, AI-driven personalization, loyalty programs, and category expansion [7][5] - The leadership position of Shopee allows for increased monetization without losing users, potentially making it a reliable source of profit growth [6] Monee: Fintech Expansion - Monee, Sea's fintech arm, is rapidly evolving into a significant profit contributor, offering a range of digital financial services [8] - The digital lending business has grown substantially, with over 28 million active borrowers and $5.8 billion in outstanding loans, generating $787 million in revenue and $241 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025 [9][10] - Monee is expanding into adjacent verticals such as buy now, pay later, insurance, SME lending, and investments, enhancing its role in Sea's digital ecosystem [10] Garena: Gaming Recovery - Garena, once Sea's flagship business, is showing signs of stability after a decline, with bookings increasing by 51% year over year to $775 million in Q1 2025 [11] - The core title, Free Fire, remains the top mobile battle royale game globally, and the company is investing in content refreshes and esports events to sustain growth [11][12] - Garena is also exploring new game development and potential reentry into the Indian market, which could unlock significant growth opportunities [13] Investor Implications - Despite the previous hype fading, Sea's stock is on a recovery path with improved fundamentals across its multi-engine business [14] - Efficient monetization in Shopee, scaling in Monee, and a rebound in Garena suggest that Sea still has growth potential [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Sea Limited Sponsored ADR (SE), and suggests that while the average brokerage recommendation (ABR) indicates a favorable outlook, investors should exercise caution and validate these recommendations with other tools like Zacks Rank [1][5][10]. Brokerage Recommendation Summary - Sea Limited has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.52, which is between Strong Buy and Buy, based on recommendations from 22 brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the 22 recommendations, 15 are Strong Buy and 2 are Buy, accounting for 68.2% and 9.1% of all recommendations respectively [2]. Zacks Rank Insights - The Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which have shown a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [8][11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sea Limited remains unchanged at $4.23, indicating steady analyst views on the company's earnings prospects [13]. - Sea Limited currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting a cautious approach despite the favorable ABR [14].

Company Overview - Sea Limited 成立于 2009 年，是第三家成立的公司 [1]

Group 1: Shopee Site Selection Strategy - Southeast Asia core markets exhibit both maturity and potential, with Indonesia projected to reach a $65 billion e-commerce scale by 2025, focusing on high-cost performance products like 3C accessories and baby products [1][3] - Thailand's e-commerce is rapidly growing, with beauty and personal care, women's clothing, and food and beverage as hot-selling categories, suggesting a focus on fashion and health products [1][3] - Vietnam's beauty and personal care dominate, with a significant 14% annual growth in 3C electronics and home goods, especially during the rainy season [3] - Brazil's GMV is expected to reach $10 billion by 2025, with a 50% reduction in logistics costs through local warehousing [3] - Taiwan's consumer habits are similar to mainland China, making it suitable for high-end operations with a 1-2 day delivery time [3] Group 2: Advantages of Daifa Tong's Overseas Warehouse Services - Logistics efficiency is enhanced with over 20 self-operated warehouses across Southeast Asia and Brazil, processing 200,000 orders daily, and reducing delivery times from 15-30 days to 3-7 days [5] - Cost savings are achieved through a combination of bulk sea freight and local delivery, with logistics costs for 3C accessories reduced by 50% [5] - Real-time inventory management and automated order processing significantly reduce manual handling time and error rates [6] - Localized value-added services, including customized packaging and local customer support, improve customer satisfaction and reduce damage rates [7] Group 3: Practical Recommendations and Resource Integration - Initial testing should involve 2-3 sites, such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil, to identify high-potential categories [9] - A cost control strategy combining local warehousing for popular products and cross-border direct shipping for long-tail SKUs can optimize logistics costs by 40% [11] - Data-driven operations can enhance inventory turnover rates to over 4 times per month and reduce unsold inventory by 30% [12] Group 4: Overall Strategy and Conclusion - Shopee's site selection should consider product characteristics, operational capabilities, and policy benefits, prioritizing markets like Indonesia and Thailand while seizing opportunities in Brazil and Vietnam [15] - Daifa Tong's overseas warehouse services provide a comprehensive solution through improved logistics, cost optimization, and local support, enabling sellers to achieve scalable growth [15]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reiterates a "Buy" rating for Sea with a target price of $186 [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs highlights Shopee's promotional activities during the 7.7 sales period and recent changes in merchant fees, emphasizing the importance of tracking Shopee in Brazil as a key discussion point among buyers [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Sea with a target price of $186, noting that Shopee's shipping discounts in Indonesia have increased while product discounts remain stable [1] - Price sampling indicates that Shopee's overall subsidy levels are consistent compared to June, with Shopee maintaining a price competitiveness of approximately 6% lower than TikTok for consumers [1] Group 2 - In Brazil, most products on Shopee are priced lower than those on MELI, particularly for generic unbranded items, with a minimum purchase coupon of 10 reais existing since Q1 2025 [1] - Shopee is increasing promotional efforts in Malaysia while reducing them in Thailand and Vietnam, where competition with TikTok is historically intense [2] - Starting July 20, Shopee will introduce a fixed processing fee of 1,250 Indonesian rupiah (approximately $0.08) per order in Indonesia, indicating a broader industry trend towards enhancing profitability [2]