Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) [3]. Core Views - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in market sentiment, driven by stable regulatory policies and improved supply of game licenses, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years [1][11]. - Tencent's domestic evergreen games are performing well, and its overseas growth targets remain solid, with a focus on expanding its global distribution capabilities [1][25]. - The report forecasts Tencent's revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 659.1 billion, 715.4 billion, and 773.0 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits of 214.6 billion, 240.4 billion, and 260.0 billion RMB [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Gaming Industry: Policy Risks Easing and Market Sentiment Recovering - The gaming industry in China is showing signs of recovery, with a 13.9% year-on-year increase in actual sales revenue in 2023, reaching 302.96 billion RMB [7]. - The number of game licenses issued has significantly improved, with 1,072 domestic and 90 imported game licenses granted by the end of October 2024, surpassing previous years [11][12]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for games has increased, with mobile game ARPU growing by 17.1% in 2023 [7]. 2. Company Gaming Business: Strong Domestic Performance and Stable Overseas Growth - Tencent's domestic evergreen games are seeing a revenue rebound, with flagship titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" benefiting from gameplay updates [1]. - The new game "MDnF" is expected to significantly contribute to revenue in the second half of 2024 [1]. - Tencent's global distribution capabilities are expanding, with successful titles like "PUBG Mobile" and "Brawl Stars" maintaining strong performance in international markets [1][25]. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects Tencent's revenue and adjusted net profit growth for the next three years, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17X, 15X, and 14X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. - The investment recommendation is based on the anticipated recovery in the gaming market and Tencent's strong position within it [1][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings (00700) is "Buy" with a 6-month target price maintained [1]. Core Views - The report anticipates a resilient growth in earnings, projecting a revenue increase of 8% year-on-year and a Non-IFRS operating profit growth of 17% for Q3 2024 [1]. - The overall gross profit is expected to rise by 16% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 53.3%, reflecting a 3.9 percentage point increase [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach approximately 57.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28% [1]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Revenue is expected to grow by 8% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024 [1]. - Game revenue is projected to continue its acceleration, while advertising revenue growth may slightly decline but remain resilient [1]. - The company is expected to maintain prudent expense control, with core operating profit growth outpacing gross profit growth [1]. Gaming Segment - Network game revenue is anticipated to grow by 13% year-on-year, with domestic market revenue increasing by 12% and overseas market revenue by 15% [1]. - The report highlights several upcoming game releases that may contribute to revenue growth in Q4 2024 [1]. Advertising Segment - Advertising revenue is projected to increase by 15% year-on-year, driven by healthy growth in video account traffic and orderly expansion of advertising inventory [1]. - The gross margin for the advertising business is expected to rise to 55.9% [1]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year, with a continued upward trend in gross margin [1]. - The report notes that the growth rate has slowed due to weak macroeconomic conditions [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains forecasts for Non-IFRS net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 217.8 billion, 251.7 billion, and 278.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17x, 14x, and 13x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [1].

Night view of the Lujiazui financial district in downtown Shanghai.ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming for the first time has emerged as China's richest person, according to a list compiled by Hurun Research Institute, leaving behind Nongfu Spring Chairperson Zhong Shanshan who has topped the rankings for three years.Zhang, 44, with a personal wealth of $49.3 billion, beat 'bottled water king' Zhong, whose wealth dropped 24% to $47.9 billion after a public backlash against his company in February. Zhang was rank ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Tencent's gaming revenue is increasingly driven by international markets, with overseas revenue growing significantly, accounting for 30% of total gaming revenue in 2023 [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of operational changes and strategic adjustments in Tencent's gaming subsidiaries, particularly Supercell, to enhance monetization and user engagement [4][5] - The gaming industry is experiencing a shift towards service-oriented models (GaaS), which Tencent is well-positioned to leverage due to its extensive experience in game monetization [19][20] Summary by Sections 01 Overview of Tencent's Overseas Gaming and Market - Tencent's gaming revenue is heavily reliant on overseas markets, with a notable increase in the share of international revenue from 15% in 2019 to 30% in 2023 [2][4] - The company has adopted a strategy of acquiring subsidiaries and collaborating on game development to enhance its presence in international markets [9][11] 02 Supercell and Riot Games Organizational Adjustments - Supercell, a key component of Tencent's overseas gaming strategy, has seen a revenue increase of 70% in the first half of 2024, driven by successful game launches and operational changes [27][28] - Riot Games is focusing on core titles like "League of Legends" and "Valorant," with organizational restructuring aimed at improving player experience and operational efficiency [35][37] 03 Insights on Tencent's Gaming Operations - Tencent is actively restructuring its gaming operations to enhance monetization strategies, including the introduction of new game features and community engagement initiatives [4][5] - The company is also focusing on the importance of high-quality game development and operational management to maintain user interest and revenue growth [4][5] 04 Valuation Insights for Overseas Game Companies - The report discusses the stable valuation of mature overseas gaming companies, highlighting that firms with strong IP and diverse game portfolios maintain stable valuations even during periods of slow revenue growth [4][5] - Tencent's extensive investment in overseas gaming companies has resulted in a rich IP portfolio and significant operational experience, positioning it favorably in the market [4][5] 05 Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a focus on Tencent's strong competitive position in the global gaming market, particularly as it continues to innovate and adapt its gaming portfolio [5] - Projected revenue growth for Tencent's gaming segment is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, driven by successful game launches and operational improvements [5]

Expanding TME's Global Footprint to Elevate International Music Experiences SHENZHEN, China, Oct. 17, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) today announced a strategic partnership with Galaxy Corporation, the agency representing the influential global musician G-Dragon, for his upcoming regional tour. The collaboration marks a significant step forward in TME's ambitions to expand its global presence and further solidify its position in the international music scene.As part of this agr ...

Research 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月16日 | 12:07AM HKT CHINA RESILIENCE 聚焦中国高韧性企业 –腾讯控股 (0700.HK) 超级应用构筑生态系统，游戏业务布局全球 (摘要) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HK$520.00, up from the previous target of HK$480.00 [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights improved visibility in gaming growth driven by titles such as "Dungeon & Fighter Mobile" and "Evergreen Games," alongside stable external operating environments for other business segments [1]. - The forecast for Tencent's online gaming revenue growth is set at 13% and 9% year-on-year for Q3 and Q4 of 2024, respectively, with an overall revenue growth expected to accelerate to 12% year-on-year [1][9]. - The report anticipates a 9.5% year-on-year increase in domestic mobile game revenue for 2024, reaching RMB 131.85 billion [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Rating: Buy - Target Price: HK$520.00, reflecting a 20% upside from the current price of HK$434.20 [1]. Financial Projections - 2024E Revenue: RMB 658.95 billion, with a 0% change from previous estimates [9]. - 2024E EPS: RMB 22.57, down 2% from prior estimates [9]. - 2025E EPS: RMB 24.70, up 4% from prior estimates [9]. Gaming Segment - Domestic mobile game revenue is projected to grow to RMB 131.85 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [7]. - The report expects "Dungeon & Fighter Mobile" and "Evergreen Games" to contribute significantly to revenue growth [1]. Advertising and Financial Services - Q3 2024 advertising revenue is forecasted to grow by 15% year-on-year, with social advertising expected to increase by 16% [1]. - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to see revenue growth of 1.5% and 11% year-on-year, respectively [1]. Valuation - The SOTP valuation breakdown includes: - Online gaming segment valued at HK$1.6 trillion based on 18x 2025 P/E [12]. - Social value-added services estimated at HK$253 billion based on 15x 2025 P/E [12]. - Financial technology segment valued at HK$991 billion based on 5x 2025 P/S [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of HKD 513.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 438.80 [1][3][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that mobile gaming continues to show robust growth, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [1]. - Domestic mobile game revenue is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, accelerating from 10% growth in the first half of the year [2]. - The report anticipates that Tencent will maintain a trend of profit growth exceeding revenue growth due to ongoing cost control and operational leverage [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 554,552 - 2023: 609,015 - 2024E: 657,575 - 2025E: 721,654 - 2026E: 768,333 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 9.8% - 2024E: 8.0% - 2025E: 9.7% - 2026E: 6.5% [3][19]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 115,649 - 2023: 157,688 - 2024E: 207,933 - 2025E: 229,754 - 2026E: 257,385 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 37.6% - 2024E: 34.4% - 2025E: 12.1% - 2026E: 13.2% [3][19]. - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): - 2022: 11.86 - 2023: 16.33 - 2024E: 21.94 - 2025E: 24.60 - 2026E: 27.84 [3][19]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic mobile game revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by new game contributions [2]. - Overseas mobile game revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-on-year in Q3 2024, supported by Supercell's "Brawl Stars" [2]. - Advertising revenue growth is expected to be 16% year-on-year in Q3 2024, slightly down from previous expectations due to budget adjustments by advertisers [2]. Valuation and Outlook - The report maintains net profit expectations for 2024/25 and adjusts the valuation to 20 times the earnings for 2025, raising the target price to HKD 513.00 from HKD 486.00 [2].

恒生指数 21.4% 15.3% 18.4% 52 周价格区间（港元） 260.20-482.40 流通股本（万股） 927,961.82 2024 年 10 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 游戏加速，广告稳健，持续高质量增长 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 尹芮 S0350522110001 yinr@ghzq.com.cn ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）2024Q3 财报前瞻 最近一年走势 1、主要财务指标前瞻：我们预计公司 2024Q3 实现营业收入 1670 亿元（YoY+8%）。其中增值服务 823 亿元（YoY+9%），增值服务 中游戏业务 518 亿元（YoY+13%）、社交网络 305 亿元（YoY+3%）， 在线广告业务 298 亿元（YoY+16%），金融科技和企业服务 536 亿 元（YoY+3%）。预计公司 2024Q3 毛利率 53%（YoY+4pct），毛 利润891亿元（YoY+16%）;销售费用率 6%，一般及行政费用率 17%； NON-IFRS 经营利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) [1][4] Core Views - The report anticipates Tencent's revenue for Q3 2024 to reach 167.2 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year (YOY) increase of 8% and a quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) increase of 4% [1] - The expected gross profit is 89.1 billion RMB, with a YOY increase of 16% and a QOQ increase of 4%, leading to a gross profit margin (GPM) of 53% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at 61 billion RMB, a YOY increase of 18% and a QOQ increase of 4% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 54.6 billion RMB, reflecting a YOY increase of 22% but a QOQ decrease of 5% [1] Revenue Breakdown - **Value-Added Services**: Anticipated revenue of 52.3 billion RMB for online gaming, with a YOY increase of 13% and a QOQ increase of 8% [1] - Domestic market gaming revenue is expected to be 37 billion RMB, a YOY increase of 13% [1] - International market gaming revenue is projected at 15.2 billion RMB, a YOY increase of 15% [1] - **Social Network Services**: Expected revenue of 30.8 billion RMB, with a YOY increase of 4% and a QOQ increase of 2% [1] - **Advertising**: Projected revenue of 29.6 billion RMB, a YOY increase of 15% but a QOQ decrease of 1% [1] - **Financial Technology and Business Services**: Expected revenue of 53.4 billion RMB, a YOY increase of 3% and a QOQ increase of 6% [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly adjusted to 661.1 billion RMB, 718.9 billion RMB, and 773.3 billion RMB respectively, with YOY growth rates of 9% for each year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts have been adjusted to 218.6 billion RMB, 244 billion RMB, and 271.1 billion RMB for the same period, with a YOY growth of 39% in 2024 [1] - Non-IFRS EPS is projected at 23.82 RMB, 27.28 RMB, and 31.08 RMB for 2024-2026, with a YOY growth of 43% in 2024 [1] Target Price - The target price range is set between 471.25 and 523.61 HKD, based on a valuation of 18-20 times the 2024 Non-IFRS EPS [1][4]