国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 1月26日消息，据台媒报道，近日台湾地区与美国正式拍板关税协议，将台湾地区输美产品关税税率从20%调降至15%，且不叠加于原有税率之上。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克告诉CNBC称， 该贸易协议的目标是将台湾40%的半导体供应链转移到美国。 半导体论坛百万微信群 加群步骤： 第一步：扫描下方二维码，关注国芯网微信公众号。 据悉，台积电最近几年在美国的压力下不断增加对美国投资的，承诺的投资额已经到了1650亿美元，然而这还不看不到头，最新的协议中还要让步更多， 引发台积电变成美积电的担忧。 日前公布的协议中，总共的投资额高达5000亿美元，台积电显然会是投资的主力，不仅如此，美国还直接提出更苛刻的要求——台积电需要把40%的先进 产能转移到美国，这被视为直接掏空台积电的举措。 对于这些目标，中国台湾当地的专家学者纷纷站出来淡化影响，指出美国商务部长卢特尼克的声明更多的是政治表态，建立半导体供应链的时间以10年 计，特朗普任内是不可能做到40%产能转移的，应该不到15%产能才会在美国生产。 中国台湾成功 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the current investment trend in AI and cloud computing is not a bubble but a significant and irreversible shift in the semiconductor market driven by unprecedented computational demands [2][5][21] - The capital expenditure of the top eight cloud service providers is projected to grow from $145.1 billion in 2021 to approximately $602 billion by 2026, representing an increase of over four times [4][10] - The investment surge is primarily driven by the need for computational power required for generative AI, which is fundamentally different from traditional web services [5][10] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that generative AI requires a vastly different computational approach compared to traditional search engines, with computational loads differing by a factor of 10,000 to 100,000 times [12][16] - The growth trajectory of generative AI is expected to remain strong, with projected growth rates of -8.1% in 2023, 19.7% in 2024, and 22.5% in 2025, indicating a robust demand that is unlikely to decline [20][21] - The demand for logic chips in data centers is expected to grow significantly, with the GPU market projected to increase from $100 billion to over $230 billion, and AI ASICs expected to surge from $9 billion to $84 billion by 2030 [30][33] Group 3 - The storage market is anticipated to experience long-term shortages and high prices, with the DRAM market expected to grow from $97 billion to $194 billion, and HBM market reaching $98 billion by 2030 [36][38] - TSMC's revenue is shifting from N5 to N3 process nodes, indicating a transition in profitability driven by AI demands [41][46] - The bottleneck for AI semiconductors lies in CoWoS packaging capacity, and resolving this bottleneck could lead to an acceleration in investment rather than a slowdown [55][59]

Group 1 - China Aluminum International (02068) saw a mid-day increase of over 2.4% after announcing a joint venture to undertake a new electrolytic aluminum project with an annual capacity of 394,000 tons, with the first phase set at 294,000 tons [1] - CGN Mining (01164) rose over 8.3% following the submission of a preliminary prospectus for a trust that plans to issue up to $2 billion in transferable, non-redeemable trust shares over 25 months, with annual uranium procurement not exceeding 9 million pounds [1] - China Shengmu Organic Milk (01432) increased nearly 6% after a joint announcement regarding a potential conditional cash offer to acquire all issued shares of the company [1] Group 2 - Yijun Group Holdings (02442) surged over 18%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 500% since its resumption of trading in December, following the sale of shares by its controlling shareholder [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) rose over 10%, reaching a historical high of 5.49 HKD, after announcing the termination of its gold spin-off plan to focus on gold business [2] - Laopuqin Gold (06181) increased over 7.3% as consumer demand is expected to rise during the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by higher gold prices and anticipated price increases [2] Group 3 - Oil stocks continued to rise, with CNOOC (02883) up 4.19%, Sinopec (00386) up 2.54%, and PetroChina (00857) up 3.68%, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran and Cuba [3] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) saw a rise of over 15.4% due to significant price increases and supply tightness in the G.652.D optical fiber market, with major manufacturers unable to meet their own orders [3] Group 4 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) increased over 2.6% after announcing plans to start construction on a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in 2026, with an investment of $437 million [4] - Xindong Company (02400) saw a slight increase of 0.43% as its mobile game "Xindong Town" surpassed 10 million downloads, indicating strong user growth [4] Group 5 - EquipmentShare.com (EQPT.US) debuted on the US stock market with an IPO price of $24.5, closing up 32.9% on its first day [5] - The solar energy sector saw initial gains, with JinkoSolar (JKS.US) up 9.03% and Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) up 4.57%, following discussions at the Davos Forum [5] - Silver-related stocks experienced gains, with First Majestic Silver (AG.US) rising 5.04% as spot silver prices surpassed $100 [5] Group 6 - Lithium mining stocks mostly rose, with Sigma Lithium (SGML.US) up 17.54% after announcing additional sales of high-purity lithium powder [6] - Bank stocks declined, with Goldman Sachs (GS.US) down 3.75% amid legal issues involving President Trump and JPMorgan [6] - Redwire (RDW.US) increased by 4.51% following comments from Elon Musk about SpaceX's plans for reusable rocket technology [6] Group 7 - Semiconductor stocks showed strength, with AMD (AMD.US) up 2.35% and Nvidia (NVDA.US) up 1.53%, as Nvidia's CEO visited China to discuss future plans [7] - Ericsson (ERIC.US) rose 8.87% after reporting strong fourth-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITA reaching 12.7 billion SEK, a 24% increase year-over-year [8] - Intel (INTC.US) fell 17.03% due to disappointing performance outlooks and manufacturing issues [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target level for the Taiwan Weighted Index from 32,400 points to 34,600 points [1] - The increase in the target level is driven by TSMC's earnings report and guidance, which have positively impacted profit forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The choice of TSMC as a foundry partner by Nvidia and AMD has proven to be a significant investment, especially in the context of the current AI industry where chip supply is a major bottleneck [1][2][3]. Group 1: Importance of TSMC - TSMC is recognized as the largest foundry in the AI supply chain, playing a crucial role alongside manufacturers like Nvidia and AMD [4]. - The strong relationships TSMC maintains with its partners are a key reason why companies prefer TSMC over alternatives, even when faced with attractive options from competitors like Intel [4]. Group 2: Nvidia's Commitment - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expressed confidence in becoming TSMC's largest customer, a promise he made despite initial setbacks in technology [2]. - Nvidia's success, with a market valuation of $5 trillion, is attributed to its close relationship with TSMC, which has granted Nvidia exclusive access to certain technologies and a steady supply of chips [2]. Group 3: AMD's Strategic Decision - AMD's CEO Lisa Su highlighted the decision to trust TSMC as a major strategic move, which has led to significant gains in market share in both client and server segments [3]. - AMD's shift from GlobalFoundries to TSMC as its primary manufacturing partner has been pivotal in its success, contrasting with Intel's struggles in its internal foundry operations [3].

Industry Insights - Samsung Electronics has raised NAND flash supply prices by over 100% in Q1 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations, highlighting a severe supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market [2] - The company has completed negotiations with major clients for new pricing, effective from January, following a nearly 70% increase in DRAM prices [2] - Samsung is preparing for a new round of negotiations for NAND prices in Q2, with expectations of continued price increases [2] Company Performance - Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) expects a net profit of 2.08 billion to 2.18 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 28.74% to 34.93% [2] - The company's plasma etching equipment, a core semiconductor manufacturing tool, is gaining recognition both domestically and internationally, with significant increases in shipments for advanced logic and memory devices [2] - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) forecasts revenue of 6.68 billion to 6.88 billion RMB for 2025, an increase of 18.91% to 22.47% year-on-year, driven by strong global semiconductor demand and successful customer expansion [3] - The company anticipates 2026 revenue to be between 8.2 billion and 8.8 billion RMB, reflecting ongoing business growth trends and order situations [3] Market Trends - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to continue growing, driven by sustained demand for AI computing power, an upward cycle in storage chips, and advancements in packaging technology [3] - TSMC projects capital expenditures of 52 to 56 billion USD for 2026, a significant increase from 40.9 billion USD in 2025, further highlighting market opportunities in semiconductor equipment [3] Related ETFs - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) tracks the Sci-Tech Board semiconductor materials and equipment index, focusing on semiconductor equipment (60%) and materials (25%) [4] - The ETF benefits from the domestic substitution trend in the semiconductor industry, which has a low domestic replacement rate and high potential for growth, driven by the AI revolution and technological advancements [4] - The Huaxia Semiconductor Equipment ETF (562590) also emphasizes semiconductor equipment (63%) and materials (24%), targeting the upstream semiconductor sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The PCB sector is experiencing significant performance growth driven by AI demand, with several key investment themes identified for 2023 [1][2]. Investment Themes - **PCB Upgrade Trend**: The commercialization of CoWoP technology is accelerating, leading to a new round of upgrades in AI PCB products. mSAP capacity, equipment, and technical capabilities will become higher competitive thresholds for PCB manufacturers, presenting investment opportunities across the mSAP supply chain [1][2]. - **CCL Upgrade from M8 to M9**: The transition from M8 to M9 CCL is a definitive trend, with an increasing number of GPUs, ASIC servers, and 1.6T switches adopting M9 CCL. The usage of Q fabric, HVLP 3-4, and hydrocarbon resins will continue to rise rapidly [1][2]. - **Upstream Material Price Increases**: The price of upstream materials is still in an upward cycle, which is expected to further improve profitability [1][3]. - **Rising Demand for Substrates**: Demand for BT substrates is increasing, with continuous price hikes, while ABF substrate demand is beginning to overflow to domestic manufacturers [1][4]. Market Performance - The PCB sector's performance has exceeded market expectations, particularly in the upstream materials and equipment segments, driven by global AI PCB capacity expansion. Companies like Jin'an Guoji and Huazheng New Materials in the CCL segment, and Dazhu CNC and Chipbase in the equipment segment, have shown significant excess returns [2]. Price Trends - The CCL industry average price has increased by 20%-30% in 2025, with expectations for further price hikes in 2026 potentially exceeding those of 2025 due to supply-demand dynamics and raw material price trends [3]. Demand Dynamics - The global AI data center's storage demand is robust, with TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 projected at $52-56 billion, significantly above market expectations. This indicates a strong upward trend in storage chip demand, leading to continuous price increases for BT substrates and the overflow of ABF substrate demand to domestic suppliers [4].

Core Insights - The Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE) offers lower costs and higher yields compared to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which has a longer history and greater tech exposure [1][4][10] Cost and Size Comparison - SCHE has an expense ratio of 0.07%, significantly lower than EEM's 0.72%, which could lead to compounded savings over time [3][4] - As of January 22, 2026, SCHE's one-year return is 28.4%, while EEM's is 37.9% [3] - SCHE has a dividend yield of 2.9%, higher than EEM's 2.2% [3][9] - SCHE has assets under management (AUM) of $12.0 billion, compared to EEM's $25.1 billion [3] Performance and Risk Comparison - Over the past five years, SCHE's maximum drawdown is -35.70%, while EEM's is -39.82% [5] - The growth of $1,000 invested over five years is $1,036 for SCHE and $1,044 for EEM [5] Holdings and Diversification - EEM tracks large- and mid-cap companies with a 30% tilt towards technology, while SCHE has a 22% tech exposure and holds over 2,100 stocks, making it more diversified by company count [6][7] - EEM's top holdings include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Tencent Holdings, and Samsung Electronics, which make up 21.5% of its assets [6] - SCHE's top holdings also feature Taiwan Semiconductor, Tencent, and Alibaba Group, comprising nearly 22% of its assets [7] Investment Implications - Both SCHE and EEM provide passive investment opportunities in emerging markets, holding over 1,000 stocks each [8] - The significant difference in expense ratios suggests that SCHE may be a more cost-effective option for investors seeking exposure to emerging markets [10]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is significantly investing to meet the growing demand for AI chips, with a planned capital expenditure of up to $56 billion, indicating strong confidence in sustained AI demand despite some caution from its CEO [2][4][5]. Company Overview - TSMC holds a dominant market share in the logic chip market, essential for AI computing, and is increasing production capacity to meet demand [2]. - The company's stock has increased over 300% since the start of the AI race in 2023, yet it is still considered undervalued compared to major tech companies [7][8]. Financial Performance - TSMC's revenue rose by 26% year over year during its last quarter, and it trades at 25 times forward earnings, which is competitive compared to the broader market [8][10]. - The company projects nearly 30% revenue growth by 2026 and expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% through 2029 [11]. Market Dynamics - Continued spending by AI hyperscalers on data centers is crucial for maintaining elevated demand for TSMC's chips, with projections indicating growth in data center buildouts through at least 2030 [12]. - The overall market environment shows that major tech companies trade at about 30 times forward earnings, while TSMC's growth rate is expected to accelerate, making it a potentially stronger investment [8][10].

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to drive market gains, with the eight highest-value stocks being AI-related companies, indicating ongoing massive opportunities in the sector [1] Company Summaries Alphabet - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, holds a dominant position in various sectors, including search engines, Android, and YouTube, providing diversification and low-risk investment potential [4] - The company is leveraging AI through features like AI summaries in Google searches, which have attracted 75 million active daily users, and it has 650 million monthly active users for its Gemini LLMs [5] - Revenue growth accelerated to 16% in Q3 2025, with AI revenue being a significant growth driver; capital expenditure is expected to increase from approximately $92 billion in 2025, and the company is developing its own tensor processing units (TPUs) to meet demand [6] - All business segments are performing well, with cloud services showing a $155 billion backlog (up 46% year-over-year) and advertising revenue increasing by 15% [7] Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor is a key player in AI development, fabricating AI chips for companies like Nvidia and Alphabet, with high-performance computing (HPC) revenue accounting for 58% of total revenue in 2025, reflecting a 48% increase from the previous year [8] - Total revenue for Taiwan Semiconductor increased by 26%, with management projecting a compound annual growth rate of at least 25% through 2029 [8]