Revenue Growth Projection - TSMC 提高了全年收入增长预期 [1] Demand Drivers - 强劲的 AI 需求持续推动台积电的业绩增长 [1] Company Overview - 台积电是全球最大的合同芯片制造商 [1]

Key Takeaways TSM's Q2 revenues rose 39%, with profits up 61%, fueled by demand for 3nm and 5nm AI chips. NVDA sees strong AI chip demand but faces $8B in estimated losses from China chip restrictions in Q2 FY26. TSM raised its FY25 revenue growth outlook to 30% and plans to invest up to $42B in advanced production.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) , also known as TSMC, are two of the most important companies in the global AI chip supply chain. NVIDIA designs t ...

作 者丨Oliver Rodzianko 编译 | 华尔街大事件 台积电(NYSE:TSM)刚刚公布了 第二季度业绩 ， 股价创下历史新高。分析师认为 ，基于其历史 人气和人工智能资本支出周期的成熟度，该股目前估值略高。然而，鉴于其强劲的未来增长前景 和创纪录的第二季度盈利，以及其强大的运营效率和确保股东回报的持久战略，许多动量型和成 长型投资者对台积电的股价持更为乐观的态度。 2025 年二季度，台积电营收同比大增 38.6%，创历史新高，这主要得益于 AI 和高性能计算芯 片的需求。净利润同比增长 60.7%，每股收益增幅相同。运营利润同比增长 61.7%，增速更 猛，显示出公司强大的内部运营效率。运营支出占营收的比例从去年同期的 10.5% 降至 9.1%， 推动运营利润率升至 49.6%。 2026 年，台积电的利润率有望进一步提升 —— 由于先进制程产能紧张，客户依赖性强，公司正 考虑上调先进制程的价格。这正是世界级护城河的体现。 AI 和高性能计算领域的机遇全面爆发，台积电能有这样的增长并不意外。高性能计算（包括 AI 芯片）目前占营收的 60% 左右，比去年的 52% 有所提升；智能手机相关业务 ...

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $30.07 billion in Q2 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.8%, exceeding the previous guidance of $28.4 to $29.2 billion [2][3] - The gross margin was 58.6%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating margin was 49.6%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth target for 2025 to nearly 30%, up from the previous estimate of around 25% [2] Revenue and Profitability - Q2 2025 net revenue was $30.07 billion, with a net income attributable to shareholders of $398.27 million, reflecting a 10.2% increase from the previous quarter and a 60.7% increase year-on-year [3] - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, with a midpoint of $32.4 billion, representing a 7.7% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] Advanced Process and Downstream Distribution - In Q2 2025, 74% of revenue came from processes of 7nm and below, with 3nm accounting for 24%, 5nm for 36%, and 7nm for 14% [2] - High-Performance Computing (HPC) revenue increased by 14% quarter-on-quarter, making up 60% of total revenue, while smartphone revenue accounted for 27% [2] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (CapEx) for Q2 2025 was $9.63 billion, a decrease of $430 million from Q1 2025 [2] - The company anticipates total capital expenditures for 2025 to reach between $38 billion and $42 billion, maintaining previous expectations [2] AI Business Outlook - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45% for AI business revenue from 2024 to 2028, citing strong demand in the AI sector [2] Global Capacity Planning - The company has invested a total of $165 billion in the U.S., with the first factory in Arizona expected to start mass production in Q4 2024 [2] - Plans include building 11 wafer fabs and 4 advanced packaging plants in Taiwan over the next few years [2]

Financial Performance - TSMC views currency volatility as a significant uncertainty affecting its margins [1] Risk Management - TSMC will continuously evaluate hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of currency volatility [1]

>> I BELIEVE IT MAKES SENSE TO CUT THE M -- FMOC POLICY RATE. AND LOOKING LATER TO THE YEAR IF AS I EXPECT UNDERLYING INFLATION REMAINS IN CHECK, WITH HEADLINE INFLATION REPORTED MODEST BUT TEMPORARY INCREASES FROM TARIFFS THAT ARE NOT AN ANCHORING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND THE CAN -- ECONOMY CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY, I WOULD SUPPORT FURTHER 25 BASIS POINT CUTS TO MOVE POLICY TOWARD NEUTRAL. >> THIS SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC POSITIONS WE PUT OUT HAVE TWO RATE CUTS AND I THINK THAT IS OF REASONABLE OUTLOOK TO HAV ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Chief Financial Officer, Huang Ren-Chao, indicated that due to uncertainties related to tariffs, the company plans to adopt a cautious approach towards capital expenditures [1] Group 1 - TSMC is facing uncertainties regarding tariffs, which is influencing its financial strategy [1] - The company intends to maintain a conservative stance on capital spending in response to these uncertainties [1]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Oriental Selection (01797) surged over 14% with the upcoming launch of a second sanitary napkin product, indicating growth potential in self-operated products [1] - AI application stocks rose in early trading, with Kingsoft Cloud (03896) and Innovation Works (02121) both up over 11%, and other companies like Kintor Pharmaceutical (01860) and Kingdee International (00268) also showing gains [1] - Yao Cai Securities (01428) increased over 8% as Ant Group actively develops stablecoins in Hong Kong, enhancing the prospects for Yao Cai's virtual asset business [1] - Meitu (01357) saw a rise of over 7% during trading, with institutions optimistic about the company's performance potential due to AI Agent product validation [1] - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) initially rose over 8%, with a projected net profit increase of up to 180% year-on-year for the first half of the year, as institutions reassess the value of rare earth strategic metals [1] - NIO-SW (09866) increased over 4% as the pre-sale price of the L90 model exceeded expectations, with Morgan Stanley forecasting monthly sales to surpass 5,000 units [1] - Guoquan (02517) rose over 11% following an earnings forecast, expecting a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 111%-146% [1][2] Group 2: US Stocks - PepsiCo (PEP.US) rose 7.45% after Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, with EPS at $2.12, surpassing the forecast of $2.03, and revenue growing 1.0% year-on-year to $22.73 billion [3] - Lucid (LCID.US) soared 36.24% as it announced a partnership with Uber to launch a self-driving taxi fleet [3] - Abbott (ABT.US) fell over 8% due to Q3 guidance falling short of expectations and a downward revision of the annual profit forecast [3] - AI application software stocks saw gains, with Unity Software (U.US) rising over 12% at one point, and other companies like SoundHound AI (SOUN.US) and AppLovin (APP.US) also increasing [3] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.US) rose 3.38%, achieving a record high with Q2 EPS of $2.47, exceeding the forecast of $2.39, and revenue growing 44.4% year-on-year to $30.07 billion [4] - Oracle (ORCL.US) increased 3.09%, reaching a new high as it announced a $3 billion investment in AI and cloud infrastructure in Germany and the Netherlands over the next five years [4] - BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI.US) rose 15.45% ahead of its earnings report, with expectations of a loss of $0.07 per share but revenue projected to reach $40.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [4] Group 3: Drone and Streaming Stocks - Drone-related stocks strengthened, with Palladyne AI (PDYN.US) rising 31.4% and Joby Aviation (JOBY.US) increasing 8.51% amid U.S. Department of Commerce investigations into drone systems and key solar materials [5] - Netflix (NFLX.US) saw a slight decline of over 2% after reporting Q2 revenue of $11.079 billion, slightly above the forecast, but underperformed in the APAC and LATAM regions [5]

Capital Expenditure Strategy - TSMC plans to adopt a cautious approach to capital expenditure [1] - The cautious approach is due to tariff-related uncertainties [1] Financial Leadership - CFO Wendell Huang provided the information regarding TSMC's capital expenditure strategy [1]