Market Overview - The market this week was influenced by two main themes: the investigation rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and concerns over the "independence of the Federal Reserve," impacting the dollar and interest rate expectations; and fluctuating geopolitical news related to Iran, leading to volatility in gold and oil prices [1] - The dollar index faced pressure early in the week due to political uncertainty but later strengthened supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for recent rate cuts, aiming for a third consecutive week of gains [1] - Gold prices initially surged to a historical high of $4642.85 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, but later entered a consolidation phase, closing at $4583 per ounce [1] - Silver saw a significant increase, peaking at nearly $93.70 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 30%, although it experienced extreme volatility [1] Non-U.S. Currencies - The "high market trading" led to the Japanese yen falling below the 159 mark against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since July 2024; the euro and pound showed slight weakness while the Australian dollar remained relatively stable [2] - Oil prices were primarily driven by news related to Iran, initially rising due to concerns over internal unrest but later retracing gains as U.S. political statements eased tensions [2] Investment Bank Insights - Lloyds Bank suggested that the Federal Reserve might become a scapegoat for the weak U.S. job market; UBS indicated that concerns over the Fed's independence could lead to a more hawkish stance [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that the Fed would continue to make decisions based on data, unaffected by investigation pressures; Morgan Stanley stated that inflation remains above target, insufficient to support a rate cut in January [5] Major Events - Trump criticized Powell again, claiming he is either incompetent or corrupt, amidst a backdrop of a criminal investigation into Powell, which has drawn support for him from global central bank leaders [6] - The Senate Majority Leader questioned the investigation's legitimacy, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [7] - The December CPI data indicated a strong signal of cooling inflation, leading to increased market bets on early rate cuts, although Fed officials warned against premature easing [8] Corporate Developments - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$505.7 billion (approximately $16 billion) for Q4 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips [24] - Apple and Google reached a potential $5 billion AI partnership, opting for Google's Gemini model over OpenAI, impacting the competitive landscape in AI technology [26] - Tesla announced a shift from a one-time purchase model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature to a subscription model, aiming to create a more stable revenue stream and lower entry barriers for consumers [28]

（来源：逍遥财情） 昨日，全球最大的芯片代工厂商台积电公布远超市场预期的炸裂财报，其2025年第四季度净利润同比增长35%，同时表示今年 资本支出规模最高达560亿美元，较2025年实际支出409亿美元大幅增长37%，创下该公司历史新高。这一信号被市场解读为， 该公司对人工智能产业持续扩张抱有坚定信心。 业绩情况：2025年报预增中值：473.71% 同时，央视财经报道，近期内存条大幅涨价引发广泛关注，自2025年9月以来，DDR5内存条价格上涨超300%，DDR4内存条 涨幅也超150%。 当前国内市场，先进逻辑与存储产能扩产有望形成共振，叠加自主可控趋势下国产化率的进一步提升，共同带动半导体设备 与材料需求持续向上。 本文特梳理，国内半导体芯片产业，已发布2025年报预增的公司，筛选增幅最高的10家公司，以供参考。 1、中泰股份 细分领域：深冷设备制造及气体运营 业绩情况：2025年报预增中值：677.22% 芯片业务：公司的核心产品板翅式换热器已有多套应用于英特尔、三星、美光、台积电等芯片巨头的电子气装置中。与韩企 浦项制铁合资公司生产的高纯度稀有气体，能满足韩国半导体市场50%以上氪氙气体的需求。 2 ...

行 业 研 究 传媒 2026 年 01 月 16 日 英伟达 GPU VS 谷歌 TPU：哪些产业链竞争激烈？ 投资要点： 一、先进制程+封装：台积电领先，CoWoS 产能紧缺 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 英伟达和谷歌均高度依赖台积电 CoWoS 先进封装。台积电 CoWoS 是当前 AI 芯片产业链最关键的"卡脖子"环节。英伟达和博 通（代工谷歌 TPU）将竞争台积电 CoWoS 产能分配，并直接影响英伟 达和谷歌的 AI 芯片出货能力。据台积电 2025Q4 法说会，由于 AI 需 求强劲， 2026 年资本支出预计在 520 -560 亿美元，同比 2025 年增 长 27%~37%。 台积电因 CoWoS 产能满载，将部分先进封装订单转给外包封测 大厂安靠（Amkor）与日月光（ASE）等 OSAT 厂商，缓解产能压力。 其中英伟达表示在 2026-2029 年会与安靠合作，扩大在美国的产能布 局。2025 年 10 月，安靠宣布其位于美国亚利桑那州的先进封装测试园 区扩大投资至 50 亿美元，未来达到 70 亿美元，2028 年初投产，成为 首个美国大批量先进封装工厂。 三星、英特尔积极提升先进制程能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. AI stock rally continues, driven by strong earnings from TSMC, but signs of caution are emerging as some investors rotate out of positions and precious metals show unusual strength, indicating potential hedging against risks [1][13]. Group 1: AI and Semiconductor Sector - TSMC's Q4 results confirmed ongoing AI infrastructure spending, beating estimates and raising its 2026 capex forecast, leading to bullish ratings from major banks [2]. - The semiconductor supply chain benefited from this momentum, with Jefferies raising Nvidia's price target to $275, while AMD's stock surged 11% due to strong performance in AI testing [3]. - AMD's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 60, indicating strong momentum without being overbought, suggesting a healthy rally [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Stock Movements - Stanley Druckenmiller sold his entire Nvidia stake, indicating a belief that easy gains for the stock may be over, with analysts divided on Nvidia's future prospects [5]. - Retail investors are increasingly engaging with high-beta stocks, as seen with AST SpaceMobile's significant price increase driven by social media sentiment [6]. - Micron Technology showed rational momentum with a 42% increase over the past month, supported by strong earnings growth and favorable valuation metrics [7]. Group 3: Tesla's Challenges - Tesla's stock has struggled, gaining only 0.6% this week and down 8% over the past month, with significant sales declines in key markets [8]. - The upcoming transition to a subscription model for Full Self-Driving (FSD) is tied to ambitious growth targets, but the product remains at Level 2, facing competition from other companies [9]. Group 4: Precious Metals and Economic Signals - Silver and gold prices have surged, with silver up 20% this week and 43% over the past month, indicating potential hedging against economic instability [11]. - Amazon's copper supply deal with Rio Tinto for AWS data centers highlights the importance of securing physical commodity supply chains amid AI infrastructure demands [12].

中新社台北1月16日电 台湾地区行政管理机构16日公布的台美贸易协议引发岛内舆论关切。有声音指， 该协议"以投资换税率"，将导致台湾核心产业链外移，恐使台湾"人财两失"。 美方官员还称，在总统特朗普任内，台湾半导体供应链与产能的40％将移至美国本土。台《经济日报》 近日发表的社论说，一旦台积电的核心研发与制造活动外移，台湾多年累积的产业优势将被逐步侵蚀， 最终陷入"人财两失"困境。 中国国民党籍民意代表李彦秀16日表示，台湾经济增长过去很大程度受台积电带动，相关产业供应链外 移不仅影响台湾经济，更冲击岛内就业。 台湾民众党同日发表声明称，协议中还包含投资美国能源产业。在台湾内部能源转型卡关、企业界因缺 电焦虑而不敢扩产的关键时刻，执政党不将资源用于强化本地电网韧性，反而投资建设美国能源设施， 这相当于对本地产业发展釜底抽薪。 台湾"中央大学"经济学系教授吴大任分析，要求岛内科技业大幅增加对美投资规模将压缩企业在台投资 空间。台积电前工程师曾献莹受访表示，最令人担心的是两方面，一是投资规模过于庞大，相当于台北 市政府一年财政预算的约80倍；二是台湾的半导体产业链被"整碗端走"。（完） 根据协议，美国对台加征的所 ...

今日（1月16日）电子板块逆市领涨A股所有行业，荟聚电子板块核心龙头的电子ETF（515260）全天红 盘活跃，场内价格最终收涨2.7%，斩获日线3连阳！尾盘溢价飙升，收盘溢价率高达0.93%，显示买盘 资金更为强势！ | 房号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 华润散 | 13.04% | and | 电子 | 未合体 | 集成电路制造 | 905亿 | 37.94亿 | | 2 | 三安光电 | 10.03% | Same S | 电子 | 光学光电子 | LED | 788亿 | 49.81亿 | | 3 | 长电科技 | | 10.00% - | 电子 | 米号体 | 集成电路封测 | 866亿 | 92.874Z | | 4 | 通富微电 | 10.00% | 1 | 电子 | 未合体 | 集成电路封测 | 71117 | 80.14亿 | | ਦ | 非常則美 | | 10.00% ---- ...

Duquesne Family Office's billionaire boss jettisoned his entire stake in the face of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution in favor of another industry-leading company.More than three decades ago, the proliferation of the internet began changing the world forever. It opened new doors for businesses to sell and market their products and services, while also inspiring the retail investor revolution.For decades, the investing community has been waiting for the next technological leap forward to take shap ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 台积电位于日本熊本县菊阳町的工厂(熊本一厂)已在2024年底量产，且正在熊本县菊阳町兴建第2 座工厂(熊本二厂)。不过熊本二厂兴建工程据悉已停止、原因可能在于台积电考虑让熊本二厂生产 更为先进的产品。而据日媒指出，因看好「实体AI(Physical AI、指由AI控制的机器人等应用)」 需求增加，台积电考虑让熊本二厂生产2纳米(nm)芯片。 综合日本媒体报导，关于熊本二厂将生产的半导体种类、量产时间，台积电董事长暨总裁魏哲家 15日在法说会上仅表示，「将依客户的需求及市场状况而定」。 每日新闻15日报导，于2025年秋天动工的熊本二厂的兴建工程已中断，而据悉可能是因为台积电 变更原先计划、考虑生产更高性能的先进芯片。多位关系人士指出，台积电看好「实体AI」需求 增加，因此熊本二厂考虑生产包含2纳米最先进芯片在内的产品。日本官民合作设立的晶圆代工厂 Rapidus目标在2027年度下半年量产2纳米芯片。 *免责声明：文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体芯闻转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体芯闻对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系我们。 推荐阅读 10万亿，投 ...

在内存供应危机对消费端影响上，台积电目前并未感觉其 PC / 手机客户行为出现了变化，这与台积电主要负责高价值的手机芯片供应有关，定价较高的终 端产品对内存价格变化相对更不敏感。 IT之家 1 月 16 日消息，台积电高管在昨日法人说明会上表示，该企业预计按美元计算的 2026 年公司整体营收增幅将接近 30%。 全球"晶圆代工 2.0"行业的整体营收在 2025 年增长了 16%，台积电同期按美元计营收则达到 35.9%；对于 2026 年，台积电认为"晶圆代工 2.0"行业营收将同 比增长 14%。 在 2025 年，AI 加速器贡献了台积电 10% 以上的营收。台积电预计 2024~2029 年 AI 加速器相关收入的 CAGR（IT之家注：复合年增长率）将接近 60%， 而 2024~2029 年的公司整体营收按美元计 CAGR 也将接近 25%。 在细分领域上，先进封装业务对台积电总收入的贡献在 2024 年约为 8%，到 2025 年升至 10% 出头，台积电预计这部分业务的增速将超过公司平均水平， 2026 年的贡献占比将来到十余个百分点。至于支出端，先进封装与掩膜制造和其它将占到 2026 年 ...

This story was originally published on Manufacturing Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Manufacturing Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ended 2025 with a net revenue of $122.4 billion, a 35.9% increase compared to last year, due to continued demand for artificial intelligence. Net revenue for TSMC’s fourth quarter increased 25.5% year over year to $33.7 billion, slightly higher than its guidance of $33.4 billion, CFO Jen-Chau Huang sai ...