With artificial intelligence (AI) booming, the "Magnificent Seven" stocks (Mag 7) have received a lot of media and investor attention. They're collectively some of the most important companies in the AI ecosystem, so that's not a real shocker. What might be a shocker, though, is just how much this old-school tech company has outperformed them recently. Over the past 12 months, Intel's (NASDAQ: INTC) stock is up over 148%. That's over 100% higher than Alphabet, the Mag 7's best performer in that span. Wher ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry and packaging sectors have shown strong performance, with software stocks generally outperforming hardware stocks [2][19] - The ASP (Average Selling Price) for mature processes is expected to improve due to strong downstream replenishment demand, with forecasts indicating a utilization rate (UTR) of over 75% for Taiwanese manufacturers [19][22] Semiconductor Performance - Foundry/packaging stocks increased by 2.1% yesterday, with a 5.2% rise over the past five days and a 124.4% increase over the last 180 days [3][20] - Semiconductor equipment stocks rose by 1.2% yesterday, with a 148.3% increase over the last 180 days [3][20] - Software large-cap stocks increased by 1.1% yesterday, but have seen a decline of 11.1% over the last 60 days [3][20] NAND Market Outlook - Bernstein predicts a significant upward cycle for NAND driven by AI demand and limited supply growth, with SanDisk expected to have substantial upside potential [22] - For FQ2'26, SanDisk's EPS is projected at $3.79, exceeding street expectations of $3.45, with a more optimistic FQ3'26 EPS forecast of $6.52 based on a 22% QoQ ASP increase [22] - JP Morgan anticipates a substantial increase in NAND TAM growth from a long-term average of 10% to over 30% in the next three years, primarily driven by AI-related eSSD demand [23] Taiwanese Foundries - Citigroup reports that VIS and UMC have outperformed the market by 48% and 22% respectively year-to-date, with UTR expected to rise to 75%+ this year [19][20] - UMC's 28/22nm utilization rate remains above 90%, with overall UTR improving from 60-70% to 75-80%, leading to upward adjustments in profitability forecasts for 2026/27 [19][20] Key Company Earnings Projections - SanDisk's base case for F3Q (March) ASP is projected to increase by 22% QoQ, corresponding to an EPS of $6.52, significantly higher than the expected $4.62 [19][22] - In a bullish scenario, if F3Q ASP increases by 40%, EPS could reach $9.06, with FY27 EPS potentially at $67.5 [19][22]

人工智能无疑是当今科技领域的核心议题，但它远非故事的全部，我们发布的第28期《财富》全球最受 赞赏的公司排行榜的全明星榜单便是明证。 这份榜单基于对约3,000名企业高管、董事及分析师的问卷调查得出的年度企业声誉排行，苹果 （Apple）连续第19年摘得榜首桂冠。尽管观察人士对其在人工智能领域的进展不乏忧虑，但调研受访 者不仅重视创新成果，也看重企业在人才、资本与供应链方面的管理能力。因此，苹果依然斩获最高评 分。 图片来源：视觉中国 人工智能仍然是影响今年榜单格局的关键力量：图形处理器巨头英伟达（Nvidia）高居第四位；芯片巨 头台积电第二年登上全明星榜单，排名由去年的45位上升至36位；两家新晋上榜企业的崛起同样得益于 人工智能浪潮的推动，它们是芯片制造商AMD（第48位）与企业级科技平台公司Workday（并列第49 位）。 在行业榜上，中国有6家公司入围，比去年多一家，分别是：计算机行业排在第6位的 联想 、第7位的 华硕电脑 ；互联网服务和零售行业排在第3位的 阿里巴巴 、第7位的 腾讯 、第8位的 美团 ；以及半导 体行业排在第2位的 台积电 。 ——本刊编辑部 苹果 图片来源：视觉中国 英伟达 ...

此外考虑将一部分资产配置于黄金（对冲货币贬值与尾部风险，但留意近期贵金属连续强劲刷新记录高位，已经严重超买）、其他大宗商品（对冲通胀与地 缘风险）以及基础设施等能产生稳定收益的实物资产。并保留一定比例的现金或短期国债，不仅能在市场暴跌时提供缓冲，更能捕捉未来出现的高确定性机 会。 过去几个月来，科技等增长型板块的表现逊于周期性板块和价值股。但是，大型科技公司凭借扎实的现金流和对AI趋势的卡位，在经济不确定性中反而更 像资金"避难所"，仍有能力带领市场创新高。机构预期，盈利增长、周期性上涨以及人工智能的广泛应用，都将支撑标普500指数和市场波动率，而市场脆 弱性和高风险政策则会加剧市场不稳定性。但无疑，上涨的路径将更为震荡，且其领导地位正从"增长引擎"逐渐转变为"市场系统性风险的集中体现"。 由于近几周市场几乎都被紧张的地缘政治局势所牵引，掩盖了一个事实：本轮财报季的科技公司业绩其实不乏亮点。实际上在已经公布业绩的科技股中，台 积电（财报和指引双双超出市场预期）、网飞（业绩优于预期，但对本季度和今年全年的业绩指引谨慎）和英特尔（营收和每股收益超预期，但本季度业绩 指引低于预测）都交出了不错的成绩单。本周市场继续 ...

Summary of Global Technology Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Global Technology, specifically in sectors such as semiconductors, AI hardware, and telecommunications equipment [17][20][23] Key Insights and Arguments - **AI and Semiconductor Growth**: - Global semiconductor revenues are projected to reach **US$1 trillion** in 2026, with a **35% YoY increase** expected [18] - AI spending and a commodity rally are anticipated to continue into the first half of 2026, although demand destruction may challenge these trends in the second half [18] - EPS growth is forecasted to be **48% higher** in 1H26 compared to previous periods [18] - **Market Dynamics**: - The semiconductor cycle is expected to be transformative, with pullbacks providing opportunities for attractive entry points [18] - Tech inflation and demand destruction are likely to impact pricing power, with rising costs for wafers and memory affecting margins [18] - **Memory Market**: - Memory is identified as a new bottleneck in AI, with a capacity-constrained cycle expected to lead to unprecedented capital expenditures by 2028 [18] - DRAM pricing is projected to move past all-time highs, with significant earnings backing this trend [22] - **China's Tech Resurgence**: - Chinese technology stocks outperformed the S&P tech index in 2025, driven by a weaker USD and increased AI adoption [18] - The demand for domestic GPUs in China is under scrutiny, particularly with the introduction of DeepSeek, which may impact the GPU supply chain [18] - **Investment Recommendations**: - A barbell strategy is recommended, favoring AI-themed stocks while also considering undervalued stocks with good prospects [18] - Specific stock picks include **NVIDIA** and **Broadcom** for processors, and **Samsung**, **SK Hynix**, and **Micron** for memory [21] Additional Important Insights - **Sector Performance**: - The semiconductor sector is expected to maintain a **20% revenue CAGR** over the next five years, driven by leading-edge AI demand [22] - The AI hardware market is projected to see total Nvidia GPU server rack shipments double year-over-year in 2026 [23] - **Pricing Trends**: - The pricing for various DRAM types is expected to fluctuate significantly, with DDR4 and DDR5 prices projected to increase by **93-98%** and **80-85%** respectively in 2026 [93] - **Cautionary Notes**: - There is a caution against over-investment in AI technologies, with concerns about the sustainability of returns on such investments [49] - The potential for margin pressure due to rising costs and pricing power dynamics is highlighted [49] Conclusion The global technology sector, particularly semiconductors and AI, is poised for significant growth in 2026, driven by strong demand and evolving market dynamics. However, investors should remain cautious of potential pitfalls related to pricing pressures and over-investment in AI technologies.

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 微软发布了新一代人工智能芯片 Maia 200，这款芯片有望成为英伟达领先处理器以及亚马逊和谷歌 等云服务竞争对手产品的潜在替代品。 Maia 200 的发布距离微软宣布开发首款人工智能芯片 Maia 100 已过去两年，但 Maia 100 从未向云 客户开放租赁。微软云和人工智能执行副总裁 Scott Guthrie 周一在一篇博客文章中表示，这款新芯 片"未来将面向更广泛的客户群体"。 Guthrie 称 Maia 200 是"微软迄今为止部署的最高效的推理系统"。开发者、学者、人工智能实验室 以及开源人工智能模型贡献者均可申请软件开发工具包的预览版。 微软表示，由 Mustafa Suleyman 领导的超级智能团队将使用这款新芯片。此外，面向商业生产力软 件套装的 Microsoft 365 Copilot 插件以及用于构建人工智能模型的 Microsoft Foundry 服务也将使 用该芯片。 云服务提供商面临着来自 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 等生成式人工智能模型开发商以及基于这些热门模 型构建人工智能代理和其他产品的公司的激增需求。数 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 27 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、 工业金属等大类资产产生颠覆式深远影响。 鉴于美国连续的错误政策，全球经济已越过顶部区域，开始向下运行。 重要事项: 联系方式：yujunli@greendh. ...

此次谈判前，台湾是被美国课最高关税的地区之一，"20+N"比台湾主要产业竞争对手日本和韩国都 高。这记沉重耳光，还是赖清德当局未谈先跪，急吼吼做出向美国高额投资、开放岛内市场等承诺之后 换来的。美国之所以对献媚输诚的民进党当局如此不假辞色，就是吃定这些"倚美谋独"者绝对不敢说 个"不"字。 打了败仗却假传捷报的例子自古有之，现在民进党当局将这一戏码演绎出了无耻新高度。台美关税谈判 结果出炉，台湾被迫付出5000亿美元赴美投资、40%半导体产能向美迁移等惨痛代价后，只换来本就不 合理的20%高关税降到15%，被迫"掏空家底""自废武功"却寸利未得的民进党当局竟然宣称，这是"重大 突破""漂亮的全垒打""台湾模式的胜利"，脸皮之厚真令人叹为观止。 一般的谎报军功，多是利用信息差造假瞒报，民进党当局却是在谈判结果明明白白摆在世人面前的情况 下，强行颠倒黑白，把"割地献城"说成"胜利凯旋"，"砸锅卖铁"说成"达成预定目标"，"巨额勒索"说 成"平等合作"，"产业掏空"说成"主动布局"，"滑跪投降"说成"战略定力"。 民进党一向视台积电为"护台神山"，然而最爱指控别人"卖台"的绿营政客，却亲手把"神山"双手奉送给 美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a crucial player in the AI supply chain, manufacturing chips for companies like Nvidia and AMD, and is currently trading at a discount despite impressive growth [1][2]. Company Overview - TSMC is the world's largest semiconductor foundry, known for its efficiency, scale, precision, and yield, making it the most dependable choice for companies needing chip manufacturing [3]. - The company has shifted from primarily manufacturing smartphone chips to focusing on advanced AI chips for data centers, capturing a market share in the upper 90% range for these products [4]. Financial Performance - TSMC generated $122.4 billion in revenue in 2025, marking a nearly 36% increase from 2024, and achieving its first $100 billion year [6]. - The gross margin increased from 56.1% to 59.9% in 2025, with an operating margin rise from 45.7% to 50.8%, indicating strong operational execution [7]. - In Q4, TSMC reported a gross margin of 62.3% and an operating margin of 54% [7]. Market Position and Valuation - TSMC operates a virtual monopoly on advanced AI chips, allowing it to command premium pricing for its services [8]. - Despite a 69% increase in stock price since the start of 2025, TSMC trades at only 25 times its projected earnings for the next year, which is cheaper compared to competitors like Broadcom, Intel, and Nvidia [9]. - Given TSMC's market dominance, pricing power, and growth opportunities, its current valuation appears attractive for long-term investors [11].

Key Points Taiwan Semiconductor reported robust growth in 2025. AI was a major growth driver, and it expects that to continue. 10 stocks we like better than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing › Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) has been in the news lately for opening a new plant in the U.S. and signing a deal with the Trump administration to invest $250 billion in further developing its U.S. operations. The company also just released a phenomenal fourth-quarter report that signals even more growth ah ...