Core Insights - The U.S.-Taiwan deal aims to expand chip production capacity in the U.S., but analysts believe it will not fully reduce reliance on Taiwan's advanced semiconductors in the near term, keeping the "silicon shield" intact [1][5] Industry Overview - Taiwan is a dominant player in global chip production, with the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) producing a significant portion of the world's advanced chips. Approximately one-third of global demand for new computing power is fabricated in Taiwan [2] Strategic Importance - Taiwan's central role in the semiconductor supply chain is crucial for maintaining its de facto autonomy and deterring potential Chinese aggression, a concept referred to as the "Silicon Shield" [3] Trade Deal Details - Under a recent trade agreement, the Taiwanese government will provide $250 billion in credit to its chip and technology companies to enhance production capacity in the U.S. Additionally, Taiwanese companies will receive higher quotas for tariff-free chip imports into the U.S. In exchange, the U.S. will reduce tariffs on most goods from Taiwan from 20% to 15% and eliminate tariffs on certain categories [4] Production Goals and Challenges - The objective is to relocate 40% of Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain to the U.S., but experts express skepticism about the feasibility of this plan due to Taiwan's strict policies on keeping advanced technology domestically [5] Technology Restrictions - Taiwanese authorities have implemented the N-2 rule, which restricts TSMC's overseas fabrication plants from operating technologies that are at least two generations behind those developed in Taiwan [6]

IT之家注意到，台积电在上周的季度法人说明会上曾表示，先进封装在 2025 年已为企业贡献一成营 收，同时未来增速将超过企业平均水平。在支出端，先进封装与掩膜制造和其它将占到台积电今年整体 资本开销的 10~20%。 考虑到台积电的新一波前端先进制程产能将在 2027~2029 年大面积上线，此时追加后端先进封装产能 有利于前后端产能协调同步。 IT之家 1 月 19 日消息，台媒《自由时报》本月 17 日报道称，台积电今年将再在岛内投资建设 4 座先进 封装设施以回应 AI 芯片客户的需求。这 4 座新厂将是嘉义科学园区先进封装二期的两座和南部科学园 区三期的两座，相关决定有望在本周官宣。 ...

中信建投研报指出，展望2026年第一季度，台积电预计营业收入为346-358亿美元，中位数同比增长 37.9%，环比增长4.3%；毛利率预计在63%-65%，中值同比提升5.2pct，环比提升1.7pct，持续提升主要 受到成本控制、产能提高、汇率改善共同作用，但随着海外扩张规模扩大，预计未来几年海外工厂爬坡 将导致毛利率稀释：初期稀释幅度为2%-3%，后期将扩大至3%-4%。此外，2纳米技术将于2026年下半 年开始初期爬坡，预计全年将导致毛利率稀释2%-3%。从历史经验看，台积电在资本开支决策上始终保 持相对审慎，本轮对2026年资本预算的显著上修，体现了管理层对先进制程需求中长期确定性的进一步 确认和对自身营收高速增长的信心。结合公司在法说会中披露的信息，台积电已通过与客户及终端客户 的持续沟通，验证AI相关需求具备真实应用基础，云服务提供商亦已在业务层面观察到AI对效率与收 入的实质性贡献。台积电也因此上调了人工智能加速器相关收入增长预期——在2024至2029年五年期 间，受技术差异化优势和广泛客户基础支撑，复合年增长率（CAGR）有望达到55%-59%（mid to high 50%）。当前AI算 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 19 日 星期一 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、台积电称，得益于全球人工智能行业的蓬勃发展，预计今年第一季度营收将同 | | | | | 比增长 40%，达到 358 亿美元。2026 年是强劲成长的一年，美元营收将增长接近 30%。 | | | | | 台积电管理层表示，客户发出了强烈的"需求信号"，并直接联系公司寻求产能。 | | | | | 2、台积电表示，今年资本支出预估为 520 亿至 560 亿美元，同比大幅增长 27%至 | | | | | 37%，有望创下公司历史新高。台积电 Q4 的强劲业绩及 2026 年营收指引，清晰释 | | | | | 放出人工智能热潮将持续的信号，也重新燃起了投资者对 AI 需求韧性的信心。 | | | | | 3、美国知名资产管理 ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor manufacturing technology is crucial for the AI revolution and other significant trends, with Intel being a key player in the PC and server CPU market [1] - Intel's foundry business has not grown as anticipated, resulting in substantial financial losses for the segment [2] - Despite challenges, Intel's share price has surged over 150% in the past year due to investor optimism regarding new manufacturing processes and potential demand growth by 2027 [3] Company Overview - Intel operates a chip foundry unit that manufactures its designs and serves third-party customers, aiming to become a major provider of fabrication services [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $234 billion, with a current share price of $46.96 [5] Market Dynamics - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) dominates the advanced chip fabrication market, accounting for over 90% of this segment, particularly for AI and next-gen technologies [4] - Intel faces a lengthy timeline to gain market share from TSMC, but geopolitical factors, particularly the risk of China invading Taiwan, could enhance Intel's prospects [6] Geopolitical Factors - China has set a target for 2027 to potentially regain control over Taiwan, which could disrupt TSMC's operations and impact global semiconductor supply chains [7] - The potential destabilization from China's actions could create favorable conditions for Intel's foundry business as the need for diversified semiconductor supply chains increases [8]

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is at the center of a significant shift in the semiconductor industry, driven by new trade agreements and increasing demand for AI technology [1][2]. Trade Policy and Tariffs - A new U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement reduces tariffs on many Taiwanese goods, including semiconductors, from 20% to 15%, with some categories like generic drugs and airplane parts receiving 0% tariffs [3]. - Taiwanese chipmakers that boost production in the U.S. will benefit from improved tariff treatment and the ability to import certain goods duty-free under specific conditions [4]. Investment and Production - Taiwanese corporations are set to invest $250 billion to enhance U.S. semiconductor output, energy, and AI, in exchange for lower tariffs, with Taiwan also providing $250 billion in credit assistance to support this investment [7]. - TSMC is accelerating its operations in Arizona, coinciding with a 35% increase in its fourth-quarter profit, attributed to sustained demand for AI [9]. Market Dynamics - The trade agreement emphasizes the importance of the semiconductor supply chain, shifting focus from consumer products to the underlying manufacturing capabilities needed for high-end smartphones and AI PCs [2][6]. - The market is reacting positively to the semiconductor provisions, with investors paying close attention to both TSMC and its associated supply chain [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is positioned for significant growth, potentially reaching a $2 trillion valuation by 2026, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure and its strategic expansions [3][4]. Company Overview - TSMC is currently valued at $1.7 trillion and would need an 18% increase in share price to reach a $2 trillion valuation, equating to approximately $380 per share [4]. - The stock has appreciated 62% over the past year, indicating strong market performance [4]. Industry Context - Major tech companies, referred to as hyperscalers, are expected to invest $527 billion in AI infrastructure by 2026, a 13% increase from earlier forecasts [7]. - McKinsey & Company projects that $5 trillion will be spent on AI workloads by 2030, indicating a robust demand for chips [8]. Competitive Position - TSMC plays a crucial role in manufacturing chips for leading companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, which are heavily investing in AI technologies [9]. - The company is expanding its manufacturing capabilities globally, including new facilities in Japan and Germany, and considering a $300 billion expansion in Arizona [11][12]. Financial Metrics - TSMC's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently 24, which may not seem low, but the company is trading about 22% below its peak forward earnings levels [13][15]. - Analysts expect TSMC to generate $13.26 in earnings per share (EPS) by 2026, and at a peak forward P/E of 30, the stock could reach $390 per share [15][16]. Investment Thesis - TSMC is viewed as a strong investment opportunity within the AI infrastructure sector, offering reasonable pricing relative to its growth prospects [17].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [38] Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue and gross margin exceeded guidance, with a significant increase in capital expenditure expected for 2026. In Q4 2025, TSMC achieved revenue of NT$10,460.9 billion (up 20.5% YoY, up 5.7% QoQ), translating to USD 33.73 billion, surpassing the previous guidance of USD 32.2-33.4 billion. The gross margin was 62.3%, up 2.8 percentage points from Q3 [2][5] - For the full year 2025, TSMC reported revenue of NT$38,090.5 billion (up 31.6% YoY), with a gross margin of 59.9% (up 3.8 percentage points YoY) and a net profit of NT$17,178.8 billion (up 46.4% YoY) [2][5] - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was USD 40.9 billion, with expectations for 2026 to reach USD 52-56 billion (median of USD 54 billion), a substantial increase of 32% YoY [2][8] Summary by Sections TSMC Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, TSMC's revenue was NT$10,460.9 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and a net profit of NT$5,057.4 billion [5][6] - For the entire year of 2025, TSMC's revenue was NT$38,090.5 billion, with a gross margin of 59.9% and a net profit of NT$17,178.8 billion [5][6] Revenue Structure - In 2025, TSMC's advanced process (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue, with 3nm at 24%, 5nm at 36%, and 7nm at 14% [2][5] - By application, TSMC's revenue from HPC, smartphones, IoT, and automotive grew by 48%, 11%, 15%, and 34% YoY, respectively, making up 58%, 29%, 5%, and 5% of total revenue [2][5] Market Trends - DRAM sellers are hoarding inventory, leading to a 10% increase in mainstream DDR4 prices. The average price of mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s rose by 9.64% due to suppliers and traders adopting a strategy of withholding stock [12][13] - The demand for AI-related power ICs is growing, and major manufacturers are reducing production, which is expected to lead to price increases in the eight-inch wafer foundry market [20]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the Chinese market is entering a "transformation bull" phase, characterized by higher, more stable, and longer growth potential, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing strong performance above 4000 and 4100 points since the beginning of 2026 [8] - Key drivers of this "transformation bull" include the decline of risk-free returns, capital market reforms, and economic structural transformation, which collectively enhance the market's ability to attract social consensus and capital [8][20] - The report expresses optimism about the market's future, suggesting that the "transformation bull" has significant room for growth in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the regulatory environment is becoming more prudent, which is expected to lead to a more sustainable market rather than abrupt fluctuations, thus enhancing the market's investability [20] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a stable market environment and preventing excessive volatility, indicating a focus on long-term investment strategies [20] - The report suggests that stricter regulations will ultimately benefit the market by allowing more investors to share in the benefits of economic transformation and capital market reforms [20] Group 3 - The report identifies several sectors with promising investment opportunities, particularly in technology and non-financial sectors, as the Chinese economy stabilizes and asset management needs grow [25] - Specific recommendations include technology growth sectors, such as semiconductors and AI, driven by increasing global demand for computing power and advancements in chip technology [25][26] - Non-bank financial sectors are also highlighted as beneficiaries of increased wealth management demand and capital market reforms, with recommendations for insurance and brokerage firms [25] Group 4 - The report recommends focusing on themes such as domestic computing power, new energy grids, robotics, and domestic consumption, which are expected to drive growth in various industries [25][49] - The domestic AI infrastructure is projected to expand significantly, driven by the rapid iteration of domestic large model products and increased capital expenditure in related sectors [25][26] - The report also emphasizes the importance of service consumption and consumer goods, suggesting that innovation in these areas will align with government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the "space photovoltaic" sector, indicating it as a key investment theme for 2026, driven by strong demand and geopolitical narratives [7][8]. Core Insights - The space photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant advancements, primarily among companies already established in the sector, highlighting the high barriers to entry [7][8]. - The Chinese photovoltaic supply chain is expected to accelerate the growth of the space photovoltaic market, benefiting from the U.S. demand for "self-sufficiency" in solar products [7][8]. - The wind power and grid equipment sectors have also received substantial positive catalysts, with notable developments in offshore wind projects and significant investments planned by the State Grid [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Space Photovoltaics - Recent developments in the space photovoltaic sector include strategic partnerships and investments by companies like JunDa and Dongfang Risen, focusing on advanced technologies such as perovskite and HJT cells [8][9]. - The U.S. is facing a critical need for domestic solar supply chains due to trade barriers, which presents a significant opportunity for Chinese companies to capitalize on this demand [11][12]. Wind Power - The UK government has signed contracts for 8.4GW of offshore wind projects, exceeding market expectations, which strengthens the outlook for domestic supply chain exports [13][14]. - The auction results indicate a favorable pricing environment for developers, enhancing the profitability of future projects [14]. Grid Equipment - The State Grid's investment plan of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan represents a 40% increase from the previous plan, establishing a strong foundation for long-term growth in the grid sector [3][15]. - The aging infrastructure in North America is driving demand for new transformers and grid solutions, creating opportunities for companies like Siyuan Electric and Jinpan Technology [17][19]. Lithium Batteries - New regulations on battery recycling are set to take effect in April 2026, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive management system for used batteries [22][23]. - Companies like Fulin Precision are expanding their production capabilities in lithium iron phosphate batteries, indicating a positive trend in the lithium battery market [25][26]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The hydrogen industry is poised for growth, with significant policy support and increasing sales of hydrogen vehicles expected in the coming years [4][5].