云服务商的资本支出（Capex）已经达到了无法再用"显著增长"来形容的程度。排名前八的云服务商的投资额将从 2021年的1451亿美元增长到2026年的6020亿美元，增长超过四倍。这种增长速度简直令人难以置信。 即便如此，市场中仍不乏对这一主流避险配置的质疑声："又是一场泡沫""迟早会破裂" 之类的论调甚嚣尘上。但此类 说法毫无事实依据，并非单纯的主观臆断，本质上更是对现实的刻意回避。究其根源，当下的投资规模扩张，并非由 经济周期、市场情绪或泡沫化趋势驱动，而是源于物理定律的底层支撑 —— 海量的算力需求。 核心关键在于，生成式人工智能的计算负载绝非 "搜索功能的延伸"，而是属于更高维度的 "学习与推理" 范畴。正如 后文将详细阐释的，谷歌搜索的算力架构以 CPU 为核心，而 ChatGPT 的推理环节则以 GPU 为核心展开大规模矩阵运 算，其所需的计算量更是前者的 1 万至 10 万倍。 换言之，云服务厂商的算力投入并非出于主动选择，而是源于行业竞争的必然要求 —— 若不跟进布局，便会在赛道 中陷入落后。对于当下的云平台而言，无法支撑生成式人工智能的运行，就等同于丧失核心价值。也正因如此，这场 算力投资 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 云服务商的资本支出（Capex）已经达到了无法再用"显著增长"来形容的程度。排名前八的云服务 商的投资额将从2021年的1451亿美元增长到2026年的6020亿美元，增长超过四倍。这种增长速度 简直令人难以置信。 即便如此，市场中仍然流传着关于惯常避险方式的窃窃私语："又是一个泡沫"、"它迟早会破裂"等 等。然而，这些窃窃私语毫无根据，甚至算不上是一厢情愿的想法，而仅仅是逃避现实。这是因 为，当前投资的扩张并非由经济、市场情绪或泡沫驱动，而是由物理定律驱动：大量的计算。 关键在于，生成式人工智能的计算负荷并非"搜索的延伸"，而是不同层次的"学习和推理"。正如稍 后将解释的，谷歌搜索以CPU为中心，而ChatGPT的推理则以GPU为中心，进行大规模矩阵计 算，所需的计算量是其1万到10万倍。 换句话说，云服务提供商增加投资并非出于自愿，而是因为如果不这样做，他们就会在竞争中落 后。无法运行生成式人工智能的云平台毫无价值。正因如此，投资才不会停止，也无法停止。 在本文中，我想论证，目前发生的现象不是"人工智能泡沫"，而是"人工智能趋势"，它正在不可逆 转地重塑半导体市场 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 最近，不少芯片设计公司在晶圆厂那里吃到了"闭门羹"，不少晶圆厂反馈：部分成熟工艺的产能已 经开始不好投片。然而，这并非传统意义上"缺芯"的简单回归，而是 AI 溢出效应引发的一场深刻 连锁反应。 AI 不只抢走先进制程与先进封装的资源，也通过电源与功率链条把压力传导到成熟节点：数据中 心功耗暴涨，带动 PMIC、功率器件、驱动等需求持续抬升，而这类芯片往往依赖 8 英寸或成熟 制程产能；当供给侧又出现缩减时，成熟工艺自然更容易出现投片变难、利用率拉满、价格修复的 连锁反应。此外，AI催动的存储市场回暖，正通过 NOR Flash 等基础器件的涨价，进一步抬高 MCU 与各类模组的综合成本。 而近段时间，晶圆厂的一些动作也是暗流涌动。台积电、三星加速收缩 8 英寸旧产线，硅片厂扩 产12英寸，力积电卖掉最先进的12英寸新厂。。。一系列看似分散的事件，背后其实指向同一个 趋势——2026 年的半导体格局，早已不再是简单的周期波动，而是一场关乎生存的产能重构。 理解这场重构的第一把钥匙，就是从一个看似"过时"的主角开始：8 英寸。 8英寸，巨头退场，利弊如何？ 在 8 英寸 ...

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 1月26日消息，据台媒报道，近日台湾地区与美国正式拍板关税协议，将台湾地区输美产品关税税率从20%调降至15%，且不叠加于原有税率之上。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克告诉CNBC称， 该贸易协议的目标是将台湾40%的半导体供应链转移到美国。 半导体论坛百万微信群 加群步骤： 第一步：扫描下方二维码，关注国芯网微信公众号。 据悉，台积电最近几年在美国的压力下不断增加对美国投资的，承诺的投资额已经到了1650亿美元，然而这还不看不到头，最新的协议中还要让步更多， 引发台积电变成美积电的担忧。 日前公布的协议中，总共的投资额高达5000亿美元，台积电显然会是投资的主力，不仅如此，美国还直接提出更苛刻的要求——台积电需要把40%的先进 产能转移到美国，这被视为直接掏空台积电的举措。 对于这些目标，中国台湾当地的专家学者纷纷站出来淡化影响，指出美国商务部长卢特尼克的声明更多的是政治表态，建立半导体供应链的时间以10年 计，特朗普任内是不可能做到40%产能转移的，应该不到15%产能才会在美国生产。 中国台湾成功 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the current investment trend in AI and cloud computing is not a bubble but a significant and irreversible shift in the semiconductor market driven by unprecedented computational demands [2][5][21] - The capital expenditure of the top eight cloud service providers is projected to grow from $145.1 billion in 2021 to approximately $602 billion by 2026, representing an increase of over four times [4][10] - The investment surge is primarily driven by the need for computational power required for generative AI, which is fundamentally different from traditional web services [5][10] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that generative AI requires a vastly different computational approach compared to traditional search engines, with computational loads differing by a factor of 10,000 to 100,000 times [12][16] - The growth trajectory of generative AI is expected to remain strong, with projected growth rates of -8.1% in 2023, 19.7% in 2024, and 22.5% in 2025, indicating a robust demand that is unlikely to decline [20][21] - The demand for logic chips in data centers is expected to grow significantly, with the GPU market projected to increase from $100 billion to over $230 billion, and AI ASICs expected to surge from $9 billion to $84 billion by 2030 [30][33] Group 3 - The storage market is anticipated to experience long-term shortages and high prices, with the DRAM market expected to grow from $97 billion to $194 billion, and HBM market reaching $98 billion by 2030 [36][38] - TSMC's revenue is shifting from N5 to N3 process nodes, indicating a transition in profitability driven by AI demands [41][46] - The bottleneck for AI semiconductors lies in CoWoS packaging capacity, and resolving this bottleneck could lead to an acceleration in investment rather than a slowdown [55][59]

Group 1 - China Aluminum International (02068) saw a mid-day increase of over 2.4% after announcing a joint venture to undertake a new electrolytic aluminum project with an annual capacity of 394,000 tons, with the first phase set at 294,000 tons [1] - CGN Mining (01164) rose over 8.3% following the submission of a preliminary prospectus for a trust that plans to issue up to $2 billion in transferable, non-redeemable trust shares over 25 months, with annual uranium procurement not exceeding 9 million pounds [1] - China Shengmu Organic Milk (01432) increased nearly 6% after a joint announcement regarding a potential conditional cash offer to acquire all issued shares of the company [1] Group 2 - Yijun Group Holdings (02442) surged over 18%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 500% since its resumption of trading in December, following the sale of shares by its controlling shareholder [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) rose over 10%, reaching a historical high of 5.49 HKD, after announcing the termination of its gold spin-off plan to focus on gold business [2] - Laopuqin Gold (06181) increased over 7.3% as consumer demand is expected to rise during the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by higher gold prices and anticipated price increases [2] Group 3 - Oil stocks continued to rise, with CNOOC (02883) up 4.19%, Sinopec (00386) up 2.54%, and PetroChina (00857) up 3.68%, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran and Cuba [3] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) saw a rise of over 15.4% due to significant price increases and supply tightness in the G.652.D optical fiber market, with major manufacturers unable to meet their own orders [3] Group 4 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) increased over 2.6% after announcing plans to start construction on a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in 2026, with an investment of $437 million [4] - Xindong Company (02400) saw a slight increase of 0.43% as its mobile game "Xindong Town" surpassed 10 million downloads, indicating strong user growth [4] Group 5 - EquipmentShare.com (EQPT.US) debuted on the US stock market with an IPO price of $24.5, closing up 32.9% on its first day [5] - The solar energy sector saw initial gains, with JinkoSolar (JKS.US) up 9.03% and Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) up 4.57%, following discussions at the Davos Forum [5] - Silver-related stocks experienced gains, with First Majestic Silver (AG.US) rising 5.04% as spot silver prices surpassed $100 [5] Group 6 - Lithium mining stocks mostly rose, with Sigma Lithium (SGML.US) up 17.54% after announcing additional sales of high-purity lithium powder [6] - Bank stocks declined, with Goldman Sachs (GS.US) down 3.75% amid legal issues involving President Trump and JPMorgan [6] - Redwire (RDW.US) increased by 4.51% following comments from Elon Musk about SpaceX's plans for reusable rocket technology [6] Group 7 - Semiconductor stocks showed strength, with AMD (AMD.US) up 2.35% and Nvidia (NVDA.US) up 1.53%, as Nvidia's CEO visited China to discuss future plans [7] - Ericsson (ERIC.US) rose 8.87% after reporting strong fourth-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITA reaching 12.7 billion SEK, a 24% increase year-over-year [8] - Intel (INTC.US) fell 17.03% due to disappointing performance outlooks and manufacturing issues [8]

高盛将中国台湾加权指数的12个月目标点位从32400点上调至34600点，理由是台积电的财报及指引推动 上调了盈利。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The choice of TSMC as a foundry partner by Nvidia and AMD has proven to be a significant investment, especially in the context of the current AI industry where chip supply is a major bottleneck [1][2][3]. Group 1: Importance of TSMC - TSMC is recognized as the largest foundry in the AI supply chain, playing a crucial role alongside manufacturers like Nvidia and AMD [4]. - The strong relationships TSMC maintains with its partners are a key reason why companies prefer TSMC over alternatives, even when faced with attractive options from competitors like Intel [4]. Group 2: Nvidia's Commitment - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expressed confidence in becoming TSMC's largest customer, a promise he made despite initial setbacks in technology [2]. - Nvidia's success, with a market valuation of $5 trillion, is attributed to its close relationship with TSMC, which has granted Nvidia exclusive access to certain technologies and a steady supply of chips [2]. Group 3: AMD's Strategic Decision - AMD's CEO Lisa Su highlighted the decision to trust TSMC as a major strategic move, which has led to significant gains in market share in both client and server segments [3]. - AMD's shift from GlobalFoundries to TSMC as its primary manufacturing partner has been pivotal in its success, contrasting with Intel's struggles in its internal foundry operations [3].

2026年1月23日，截至收盘，沪指涨0.33%，报收4136.16点；深成指涨0.79%，报收14439.66点；创业板 指涨0.63%，报收3349.50点。科创半导体ETF（588170）涨1.51%，半导体设备ETF华夏（562590）涨 1.95%。 3.盛美上海（688082.SH）发布2025年度业绩预告，预计营业收入为66.80亿元-68.80亿元，比上年同期 增长18.91%-22.47%。报告期内，全球半导体市场需求强劲，公司凭借技术差异化优势，持续推进销售 交付与调试验收，产品平台化进展顺利，客户全球化拓展成效显著，新客户开发取得突破，市场认可度 不断提升，推动营业收入稳步增长。综合近年来的业务发展趋势，以及目前的订单等多方面情况，公司 预计2026年全年的营业收入将在人民币82.00亿元至88.00亿元之间。 银河证券指出，AI算力需求不减、存储芯片周期上行以及先进封装技术渗透，共同推动半导体设备需 求提振，2026年半导体设备市场规模持续增长预期强烈。台积电预计2026年资本开支为520-560亿美 元，相较于2025年409亿美元的资本开支大幅增长，半导体设备的市场机遇进一步凸显。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PCB sector is experiencing significant performance growth driven by AI demand, with several key investment themes identified for 2023 [1][2]. Investment Themes - **PCB Upgrade Trend**: The commercialization of CoWoP technology is accelerating, leading to a new round of upgrades in AI PCB products. mSAP capacity, equipment, and technical capabilities will become higher competitive thresholds for PCB manufacturers, presenting investment opportunities across the mSAP supply chain [1][2]. - **CCL Upgrade from M8 to M9**: The transition from M8 to M9 CCL is a definitive trend, with an increasing number of GPUs, ASIC servers, and 1.6T switches adopting M9 CCL. The usage of Q fabric, HVLP 3-4, and hydrocarbon resins will continue to rise rapidly [1][2]. - **Upstream Material Price Increases**: The price of upstream materials is still in an upward cycle, which is expected to further improve profitability [1][3]. - **Rising Demand for Substrates**: Demand for BT substrates is increasing, with continuous price hikes, while ABF substrate demand is beginning to overflow to domestic manufacturers [1][4]. Market Performance - The PCB sector's performance has exceeded market expectations, particularly in the upstream materials and equipment segments, driven by global AI PCB capacity expansion. Companies like Jin'an Guoji and Huazheng New Materials in the CCL segment, and Dazhu CNC and Chipbase in the equipment segment, have shown significant excess returns [2]. Price Trends - The CCL industry average price has increased by 20%-30% in 2025, with expectations for further price hikes in 2026 potentially exceeding those of 2025 due to supply-demand dynamics and raw material price trends [3]. Demand Dynamics - The global AI data center's storage demand is robust, with TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 projected at $52-56 billion, significantly above market expectations. This indicates a strong upward trend in storage chip demand, leading to continuous price increases for BT substrates and the overflow of ABF substrate demand to domestic suppliers [4].