MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 四季度，东方港湾清仓Coinbase、奈飞、AsteraLabs、BitMineImmersionTechnologies、博通、台积电等 美股标的。此外，变化较大的是，谷歌取代英伟达，跃升为东方港湾的第一大重仓股。此前多个季度， 东方港湾的第一大重仓股为英伟达。2025年四季度，东方港湾加仓了谷歌约40.55%的股份，叠加该股 在四季度涨幅接近29%，从而导致谷歌的持仓占比大幅提升，并远高于对英伟达的持仓。2025年末，东 方港湾对谷歌的持股市值约为4.06亿美元，占其美股持仓的约31%。 格隆汇1月28日｜美国证券交易委员会(SEC)官网披露但斌掌舵的东方港湾旗下海外基金2025年四季度美 股持仓数据显示，2025年末东方港湾共持有10只美股标的，持股市值合计13.16亿美元，折合人民币超 91亿元，相比2025年三季度末约12.92亿美元持股市值略有增长。2025年四季度，东方港湾在美股进行 了一定幅度的调仓换股，更加聚焦美股的科技巨头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a widespread price increase, affecting various segments including memory, passive components, and main control chips, driven by rising raw material costs and strong demand, particularly in AI applications [2][3][35]. Price Increases in Semiconductor Components - Companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor announced price hikes of 15%-50% for MCU and NOR Flash products starting January 2026 [2][60]. - Major memory manufacturers such as Samsung and SK Hynix have also raised prices significantly, with Samsung increasing NAND Flash prices by over 100% in Q1 2026 [20][22]. - Micron has reported a general price increase of approximately 20% across its product lines [23][24]. Price Increases in Raw Materials and PCB - Resonac announced a 30% price increase for copper-clad laminates and adhesive films starting March 1, 2026, due to tight supply and rising costs [8]. - Nanya Plastics raised prices for all CCL and PP products by 8% due to increases in raw material costs [12]. - Taisil has implemented price increases of 5%-10% for its copper-clad laminates in response to rising material costs [9]. Price Increases in Wafer Foundries - TSMC has informed clients of price increases for advanced nodes (5nm, 4nm, 3nm, 2nm) over four consecutive years, with expected increases of 8%-10% for 5nm and up to 50% for 2nm [15]. - SMIC has also raised prices by approximately 10% for certain capacities [16]. - TrendForce predicts that the average capacity utilization rate for 8-inch wafer foundries will rise to 85%-90% in 2026, prompting price increases of 5%-20% across the board [14]. Price Increases in Passive Components - Companies like Yageo and Walsin have announced price increases for tantalum capacitors and resistors, with Yageo raising prices by 15%-20% for certain resistor products [33][34]. - Other passive component manufacturers are also adjusting prices due to rising raw material costs, with increases ranging from 5% to 30% [32][40]. General Market Trends - The semiconductor market is seeing a significant increase in demand driven by AI applications, leading to widespread price adjustments across various sectors [35][58]. - Many companies are experiencing full order books, prompting them to consider further price increases in the near future [19][20].

Market Performance - The market showed mixed performance from January 19 to January 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11%[5] - The average daily trading volume was 2.80 trillion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week[5] Healthcare Sector - At the JPM 2026 conference, over 20 Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies showcased their advancements, with significant business development (BD) transactions reported[16] - In 2025, the value of China's innovative drug patent licensing transactions reached approximately $135.7 billion, a 143% year-on-year increase, with 157 total transactions[20] Consumer Sector - The Qianwen APP integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem, achieving over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, marking its entry into the "billion-level club"[25] - This integration allows for a seamless process from search to decision-making and payment, establishing a comprehensive AI application ecosystem[26] Hard Technology Sector - The supply of storage and logic chips remains tight, leading to widespread price increases across the industry[32] - The price of enterprise SSDs continues to rise due to increased demand from AI servers, with NAND Flash supply expected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026[35] High-end Manufacturing - The State Grid announced a total fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), a 40% increase from the previous period, averaging 800 billion yuan annually[42] - By 2030, renewable energy generation is expected to account for approximately 30% of total power generation, indicating significant growth potential in the solar and wind sectors[46]

里昂发表报告指，台积电今年520亿至560亿美元资本支出指引令人惊讶，该行认为最可能原因是扩产支 出中兴建全新厂房比例高于市场预期，导致每节点支出处于按经验推测范围的上限。但未完成项目金额 持续高企，反映产能上线速度比预期慢，同时土地与厂房的基础建设支出亦加速推进。该行预计未来两 年内供需平衡不会出现显著变化。该行认为台积电定价改善与毛利率提升，上调对其今明两年每股盈利 预测14%及19%，目标市盈率向英伟达靠拢，目标价从2000新台币上调至3030新台币。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are expected to gain further as investments in AI infrastructure accelerate, with major tech companies spending hundreds of billions on data centers and AI chip technology [1]. Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is a leading choice due to its dominance in GPUs and CUDA software, which are essential for generative AI [3]. - AI processing semiconductor revenue surpassed $200 billion last year, with a projected CAGR of 14% through 2033, reaching a total addressable market of $486 billion; Nvidia is expected to maintain a 75% market share through 2030 [4]. - Nvidia is expanding its business lines, including a $20 billion partnership with Groq for inference capabilities, which may enhance its leadership in the AI chip market [5]. - Despite its strong position, Nvidia's stock is trading at its lowest valuation in over a year, indicating potential investor concerns about competition from AMD and Broadcom [6]. - The AI chip market is still expanding, allowing for multiple winners, and Nvidia is recommended as a buy-and-hold investment for long-term growth [7]. Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC is the largest chip manufacturer globally, holding nearly 70% market share, and serves as a key partner for companies like Nvidia and AMD [8][9]. - TSMC's diverse manufacturing capabilities position it well to benefit from the growing AI chip market, as it can produce various chip types [10]. - The company is set to capture significant market share in the AI chip sector as hyperscalers increase their capital expenditures on AI infrastructure [11]. - TSMC is investing in new manufacturing facilities and expanding its geographic presence, indicating potential for further growth in the ongoing chip supercycle [12]. Group 3: Micron Technology - The rise of large language models and generative AI has created a demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and storage solutions, benefiting Micron Technology [13]. - Micron's revenue in its DRAM division increased by 69% year-over-year, with NAND sales rising by 22% in the fiscal first quarter of 2026 [14]. - Micron's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to triple this year, indicating strong pricing power in the memory and storage market [15]. - Despite its strong outlook, Micron is undervalued with a forward P/E of 11, suggesting it may be an attractive investment opportunity [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of core values such as excellence, integrity, transparency, and respect for long-term success in the investment sector [1]. Group 1 - The author identifies as a full-time investor with a strong focus on the tech sector and holds a Bachelor of Commerce Degree with Distinction, majoring in Finance [1]. - The author is a lifetime member of the Beta Gamma Sigma International Business Honor Society, indicating a commitment to academic excellence [1]. - The article invites readers to provide constructive criticism and feedback to enhance the quality of future work [1]. Group 2 - The author discloses having no stock, option, or similar derivative positions in any mentioned companies and has no plans to initiate such positions within the next 72 hours [1]. - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and states that no compensation is received for the article, except from Seeking Alpha [1].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has been identified as the largest "risk" factor in the global AI supply chain due to its conservative early predictions regarding AI demand, despite its dominant position in the semiconductor foundry sector [1] Group 1: TSMC's Position and Challenges - TSMC's CEO has shown caution towards large-scale construction, leading to insufficient early investments and resulting in a severe supply shortage [2] - The impact of capacity bottlenecks has spread from chip manufacturers to downstream hyperscalers, with companies like Nvidia and AMD facing extended delivery cycles [2] - Major tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Meta are currently unable to secure guaranteed delivery schedules, with Microsoft's Maia 200 AI chip facing significant supply constraints [2] Group 2: Financial Implications and Production Capacity - Analysts warn that the current risks could translate into revenue losses amounting to billions of dollars for hyperscale operators [2] - In addition to wafer manufacturing, the shortage of advanced packaging capacity is another critical issue, with TSMC's CoWoS technology being the preferred solution for AI chip manufacturing [2] - TSMC plans to increase capital expenditures to $56 billion this year to alleviate pressure, but it is unlikely to meet the surging market demand in the short term [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Intel Foundry and Samsung are attempting to enter the AI chip manufacturing space, but manufacturers remain hesitant to switch from TSMC due to the irreplaceable supply chain ecosystem and trust established by TSMC [4]

January 27, 2026 10:15 PM GMT Asia-Pacific Technology | Asia Pacific AI Supply Chain: TPU/ASIC updates; ICMS NAND demand calculation We sense that AI semi vendors have started securing critical 2027 components – T-Glass/ABF, HBM, and TSMC 3nm – (e.g., MediaTek's 3nm TPU). Downgrade Egis to EW, as its 2026 appears to be shaping up as a year of transition. ASIC – Volume upside for MediaTek's 3nm TPU project in 2027: In our Target Price Up report, we highlighted the supply chain's bull case of 6-7mn TPU units ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、桥水基金创始人达利欧警告：美国就像一个火药桶，内战一触即发。美国已经 | | | | | 深深陷入第五阶段—"崩溃前阶段"，其特点是糟糕的金融状况和内部冲突。并且 | | | | | 有摇摇欲坠地进入第六阶段的风险，其标志是现有秩序通过内战或革命而崩溃。 | | | | | 2、数据显示，新兴市场股票和债券 ETF 合计录得 68.3 亿美元资金流入，尽管较前 | | | | | 一周略有回落，但已连续第 14 周实现净流入。中国相关 ETF 仍是资金最青睐的方 | | | | | 向，当周流入中国市场的资金达到 16.5 亿美元。 | | | | ...

需求端：资本开支延续高增态势。1)海外：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态势，总和达 996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。2)国内：2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支均显放 缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三季度业 绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降24.05%、环比 降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。 爱建证券近日发布数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态 势，总和达996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。国内：2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支 均显放缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三 季度业绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降 24.05%、环比降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 数据中心已成为电力设备行业核心增量应 ...