Group 1: Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) and AMD are significant players in the AI investing sector, with AMD rising 77% and TSMC increasing by 54% in 2025 [1] - AMD is primarily a chip designer that outsources manufacturing to suppliers like TSMC, while TSMC is a chip fabricator known for its industry-standard capabilities [4] - TSMC has a limited client base and is well-established, whereas AMD faces intense competition from Nvidia and Broadcom in the AI hardware market [5][6] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - AMD is seen as a third option in the AI hardware space, struggling to compete with Nvidia's superior technology and Broadcom's custom-designed AI chips [6] - AMD's management reported a tenfold increase in downloads for its GPU controlling software, ROCm, indicating growing interest in AMD's hardware [7] - TSMC anticipates a nearly 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI chips from 2024 to 2029, while projecting a companywide growth rate of around 25% [8] Group 3: Growth Projections - AMD's data center division is projected to achieve a 60% CAGR over the next five years, with an overall company growth rate of 35% [7] - TSMC's growth expectations for AI chips reflect a strong market demand, aligning with the anticipated increase in AI spending through at least 2030 [1][8]

[Table_Main] 行业研究|信息技术|半导体与半导体生产设备 证券研究报告 半导体与半导体生产设 2026 年 02 月 02 日 备行业周报、月报 [Table_Title] 台积电持续扩充 CoWoS 产能，英伟达联手 奔驰打造无人出租车 ——行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 本周（2026.1.26-2026.2.1）市场回顾 1）海外 AI 芯片指数本周上涨 0.95%，MPS 和博通上涨 5.7%和 3.5%， AMD 下跌 8.8%，Marvell 和台积电小幅下滑。2）国内 AI 芯片指数本 周下跌 2.1%。澜起科技和兆易创新分别上涨 13.6%和 5.9%，恒玄科 技和通富微电分别下跌 10.4%和 7.6%，翱捷科技和寒武纪下滑幅度 在 5%-6%。3）英伟达映射指数本周下跌 1.8%，长芯博创和太辰光涨 幅均在 22%以上，英维克和麦格米特涨幅在 9.9%和 5.4%。沃尔核材 和神宇股份跌幅分别在 14.2%和 8%，兆龙互连、工业富联、景旺电 子、沪电股份和江海股份跌幅在 2%-6%。4）服务器 ODM 指数本周 下跌 0.7%，超微电脑跌幅超 8%，Wi ...

Core Insights - The market presents significant growth and value investment opportunities, particularly for stocks expected to perform well in 2026 [1] - A selection of stocks is highlighted as potential strong performers over the next few years [2] Company Summaries Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported outstanding Q4 2025 earnings, with management forecasting nearly 30% revenue growth in 2026 [3] - The company anticipates its AI chip revenue will grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 60% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - Current market cap is $1.7 trillion, with a gross margin of 59.02% and a dividend yield of 0.93% [4][5] The Trade Desk (TTD) - The Trade Desk's stock has decreased by 75% from its all-time high, but it still remains a leading ad platform [6] - The company grew revenue by 18% in Q3, with Wall Street analysts projecting 16% growth for 2026 [8] - The current market cap is $15 billion, with a gross margin of 78.81% [7] Nebius (NBIS) - Nebius operates data centers equipped with advanced GPUs for AI workloads, offering a full-stack setup for clients [9] - Management forecasts significant growth, expecting annual revenue to rise from $551 million to between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026 [10] - The current market cap is $21 billion, with a gross margin of -1312.43% [10]

Core Insights - AI spending is rapidly increasing, particularly in the computing sector, with companies investing heavily to expand their computing capabilities [1] - Companies selling computing equipment are expected to thrive, presenting strong investment opportunities in the AI sector [2] Company Summaries Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC is the world's largest chip foundry, crucial for AI computing, producing logic chips for nearly all AI devices [3][4] - The company plans to invest between $52 billion and $56 billion to increase production capacities, anticipating a nearly 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in AI chip revenue from 2024 to 2029 [6][7] - Current market cap is $1.7 trillion, with a gross margin of 59.02% and a dividend yield of 0.93% [6] Nvidia - Nvidia is a leading name in AI, known for its GPUs that dominate AI data centers, with a market cap of $4.6 trillion and a gross margin of 70.05% [8][10] - Analysts project a 52% revenue growth for Nvidia in FY 2027, with global data center capital expenditures expected to rise to $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030 [10] Broadcom - Broadcom is focusing on designing application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for AI workloads, which can provide better performance at lower costs compared to general-purpose GPUs [11][13] - The company expects revenue from AI semiconductors to double in Q1, indicating strong momentum in the AI sector [13]

海力士在存储行业表现突出，DRAM 产品线完善，并推出新型存储产品 HBF，预计 2026 年下半年出样品，2027 年实现商业化，将显著提升 推理速度，满足 AI 推理需求。海力士在 HBM 技术方面具有领先优势。 英特尔目标价上调至 71.5 美元，基于其制程工艺的显著进步和 IDM 2.0 战略的成功，吸引了政府和私营部门的投资，具备先进封装能力， 外部客户需求将成为推动其进一步发展的关键因素。 全球半导体龙头业绩启示：苹果，ASML，Hynix，三星， Advantest，DISCO20260201 摘要 2026 年半导体行业规模预计接近 1 万亿美元，存储领域增长最为显著， 硬件板块预计持续跑赢软件板块，原材料、存储、半导体设备表现优异， 消费电子品牌受损最大，苹果相对影响较小。 预计 2026 年全球智能手机出货量将下降 6.7%，苹果和三星基本持平， 中国品牌预计下降 14%，主要受存储缺货影响，华为、荣耀、小米、 OPPO、vivo 等品牌均会受到不同程度的影响。 微软和 Meta 报告显示，2026 年 CSP 资本开支预计增长 43%，Meta 从 700 亿美金增加到 1,200 亿美 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 *免责声明：本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体行业观察对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系半导体行业观察。 END 高通为主，然明年开始通用型GPU、ASIC将全面放量，如AMD MI系列GPU，谷歌第八代TPU、 AWS Trainium 4；英伟达则会在2028年推出「Feynman AI」GPU，预计导入晶背供电技术的A16制 程。 市场预估，台积电2纳米家族将成为大型且长生命周期节点，一开始规模就有望大于3纳米。 N2于 2026年进入量产爬坡，下半年将推出延伸版N2P及A16，后者将适用复杂走线与高密度供电的特定 HPC产品。芯片业者分析，未来高阶AI芯片若仍停留在N3甚至N4节点，等同直接丧失高阶市场入场 券。 除 前 段 制 程 外 ， 台 积 电 也 同 步 升 级 后 段 先 进 封 装 体 系 。 业 界 指 出 ， 随 AI 芯 片 全 面 进 入 多 晶 粒 （ Chiplet ） 与 超 大 封 装 尺 寸 时 代 ， 单 颗 芯 片 已 难 以 满 足 算 力 需 ...

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector is poised for significant growth, with predictions of AI data center spending increasing from approximately $500 billion to $1.4 trillion by 2030, primarily driven by demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) [2] Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is well-positioned to capitalize on the AI boom, being a leading manufacturer of both GPUs and ASICs, and maintaining strong relationships with top AI chip designers like Nvidia and Broadcom [3][4] Market Position - TSMC holds a near monopoly in advanced chip manufacturing, with competitors like Intel and Samsung struggling to produce advanced logic chips at scale. This dominance provides TSMC with strong pricing power, allowing for a four-year schedule of price hikes [6] Growth Projections - TSMC anticipates its AI revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the mid- to high-50% range until 2029. The company has significantly increased its capital expenditure budget for 2023 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, up from less than $41 billion in 2025, to meet rising demand [7] Valuation Metrics - TSMC's stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 based on 2026 estimates, and a forward price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7, indicating it is reasonably valued for long-term investment in the AI sector [8]

Core Insights - Nvidia has experienced significant changes in demand due to the rise of AI, particularly with the launch of ChatGPT, leading to a shift in its customer base from PC gamers to data centers that require high computing power [2][4] - The pricing of Nvidia's chips has surged, with the latest GB200 Blackwell Superchip priced at up to $70,000, resulting in operating margins increasing to 62% from pre-ChatGPT levels [3][5] - Analysts project Nvidia's profits could triple by 2028, potentially increasing its justified share value to around $250 [5] Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's stock has risen dramatically, but it is considered expensive with only a 32% upside to fair value from current levels [5] - The company has a history of volatility, having fallen at least 50% in 13 of the 26 years since going public [2] Competitors and Alternatives - Broadcom is recognized as a leader in custom AI accelerator chips, but its stock has also risen significantly, limiting future gains [7][8] - Marvell Technology is highlighted as a competitor with substantial upside potential, trading at a lower price-to-sales ratio compared to Broadcom, with projections of a 76% upside [9][10] Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is a key player in the semiconductor industry, producing advanced chips for major companies like Nvidia and Apple [14] - TSMC has a monopoly on 4-nanometer chip production, achieving high yields compared to competitors like Samsung [16][17] - TSMC's revenue is expected to grow in the mid-20% range annually, with AI revenues projected to increase by 50% annually [18] Government Investment and Future Trends - The U.S. government is heavily investing in semiconductor technology, with TSMC receiving significant grants and loans for domestic chip manufacturing [21] - There is a focus on six core sectors for future government funding, including semiconductors, as part of a broader strategy to maintain technological leadership [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The current AI boom represents a significant technological turning point, comparable to the introduction of the internet, but skepticism exists regarding current valuations in the market [1][2]. Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a crucial player in the AI supply chain, manufacturing chips for various tech companies that rely on its efficiency and scale [2][4]. - TSMC holds a virtual monopoly on advanced AI chip manufacturing, making it the most trusted partner for tech companies [4]. Financial Performance - TSMC achieved its best year ever in 2025, generating $122 billion in revenue, which reflects a nearly 36% year-over-year increase [7]. - The company has a market capitalization of $1.7 trillion, with a gross margin of 59.02% and a dividend yield of 0.93% [6]. Industry Context - The demand for AI-related revenue has positively impacted TSMC's earnings, but the company is positioned to thrive even if the AI boom slows down or turns out to be a bubble [6][9]. - Major companies such as Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and Broadcom depend on TSMC for their chip manufacturing needs, indicating a strong reliance on TSMC within the tech hardware sector [6][9].

文/定龙骑牛 徒步滚雪球 编审/王小鱼 （3）中国资产最佳对冲：A股更多反映"全球制造业周期"和"国内财政杠杆"，而纳指反映"全球科技创新周期"。两者驱动力来源完全不同。在配置模型 中，两者的相关性极低，是真正的有效多样化。 1.2 走势与展望： 当前美股市场机会与风险并存，整体风险较前期有所上升，但核心投资逻辑尚未被破坏。 以后美股相关的讨论，或加急的更新，都用这个账号发布！ 为方便复盘及大家伙儿分散投资风险，我会定期跟踪美股科技的估值情况。如无特别说明，本文使用PE-TTM（滚动市盈率）数据均来自iFind。 一、纳指100 1.1 配置必要性： 结合第一性原理看清资产收益的本质。纳指100的配置价值在于三个底层驱动力： （1）全要素生产率的收割机：经济增长的本质是劳动力、资本和生产率的提升。纳指100代表了当前人类社会全要素生产率（TFP）提升的最高水平。投 资纳指100，本质上是在做多"技术取代人力"和"算法驱动增长"的必然趋势。 （2）全球资本的"高质量回笼"：在全球不确定性增加的背景下，资金倾向于流向拥有最强自由现金流的企业。纳指100成分股多为垄断型科技巨头，它们 不仅赚钱多，还通过巨额股份回购 ...