2026 年 01 月 20 日 tter her the see the see the series of the see and the seen the series of the seems of the see and the series of the series of the series and the sering the sering the seen 相关研究 证券分析师 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈俊兆 A0230124100001 chenjz@swsresearch.com 姜安然 A0230125070008 jiangar@swsresearch.com 联系人 姜安然 A0230125070008 jiangar@swsresearch.com 1. 中国台湾电子上市公司 12 月度景气度跟踪 图 1： 台股电子半导体制造板块 2025-12 营收情况 申万宏源研究微信服务号 先进制程满载, AI/HPC 扩张 结构升级 25 年 12 月台股电子板块景气跟踪 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信 ...

U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday following Friday’s declines. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.The stocks extended the negative momentum seen during the holiday break as President Donald Trump's threat to impose escalating tariffs on Europe over the Greenland dispute continued to roil global markets.Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.28%, and the two-year bond was at 3.57%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 95% likelihood of the Federal Reserve lea ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 包括《自由时报》在内的台湾媒体19日报道称，全球最大的晶圆代工厂（半导体代工制造）台积 电计划再建四座最先进的封装（AP）工厂。 据消息人士透露，台积电高级副总裁兼副联席首席运营官侯永庆将于22日宣布在台南地区扩建四 座更先进的AP工厂，其中包括嘉义科学园和南方科学园。 消息人士解释说，台积电计划于今年上半年在紫怡科技园的AP工厂1（P2）开始量产，并将设备运 至工厂2（P2）。 他还补充说，采用先进封装技术"芯片封装在晶圆基板上（CoWos）"的生产已在AP8工厂开始，该 工厂是群创光电（Innolux）的翻新工厂，群创光电是台湾富士康集团旗下的面板制造商，于2024 年被收购。 台积电还宣布计划在翟氏科技园和南方科技园各扩建两座AP工厂，以解决CoWos产能不足的问 题。 消息人士称，台积电此举也是为了消除外界对其可能变成"美国台积电（ASMC）"的担忧，因为该 公司近期在美国的工厂扩张削弱了其"硅盾"。 为应对台积电产能瓶颈，先进封装的二级市场正在迅速发展成熟。英特尔公司（纳斯达克股票代 码：INTC）已成功将其"Foveros"和EMIB封装技术定位为寻求降低 ...

The logo of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is seen at its 2-nanometer fabrication plant at Nanzih Technology Industrial Park in Kaohsiung on December 23, 2025. (Photo by I-Hwa Cheng / AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty ImagesOver the past year, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) has experienced one of the most impressive rallies among global technology stocks, with its share price increasing approximately 65% as investors adapted to the positive effects of artifici ...

Leonardo's chairman on Tuesday rowed back on comments he made about a possible merger with Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri , dismissing them as a light-hearted quip. ...

最近一项数据刷屏：截至 2025 年末，全国人口 140489 万人，比 2024 年末减少 339 万人。这是我国人口总 量连续第四年减少。 作为一级从业者，我想分享一下我眼中，人口对一级市场的影响。 消极项 募资端压力加剧： 人口向少部分大型、超大型城市集中，多数下沉城市的财政承受压力。 地方政府出资组基金，明投资实招商的方式将不再 work 。那些以募集下沉城市资金为主的中小机构将面临生存压力。 作为一级市场重要资金来源的社保资金、险资等长期资本，因某些压力增加，可能转向于更保守的风格，更低的风险偏 好，进而传递至投资机构，间接影响募资工作和投资策略。 年龄在 50 岁左右的高净值人群数量快速下降。很多以财富管理性质进行募资的机构也将面临压力。 深度影响二级市场市值体系： 人口下滑会传递至各行各业，各上市公司或早或晚遭受成长预期下降，进而市值倍数下降。投资人对上市公司的关注点 从"成长预期"逐渐过渡至"现金流安全"。 劳动密集型上市公司、传统业务的上市公司都会遭受收入、利润、现金流、估值方面的多重挑战，需要全行业花费多年来 消化阵痛。 总需求增速放缓，消费赛道承压： 从母婴产业到幼儿园、小学、教培，再到 ...

截至发稿，超威 半导体盘前跌逾3%，英伟达跌近3%，高通、台积电跌逾1%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][34] Core Insights - TSMC has raised its five-year compound growth rate forecast for the AI sector, indicating strong demand in the global AI field [5][9] - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 reached $33.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, with a gross margin of 62.3% [5][6] - The semiconductor sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with TSMC projecting a nearly 30% revenue increase for 2026 [9] Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 was $33.73 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3%, reflecting improvements in cost and capacity utilization [5][6] - The high-performance computing segment saw a 48% year-on-year growth in 2025, making it the fastest-growing application area [6][9] Capital Expenditure - TSMC plans to increase its capital expenditure for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, with a focus on advanced technology [8][9] - The capital budget will allocate approximately 70%-80% for advanced processes and 10%-20% for advanced packaging and testing [8] Market Performance - From January 12 to January 16, the electronic sector outperformed the market, with a 3.77% increase compared to a 0.45% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [12][18] - The semiconductor sub-sector rose by 5.33% during the same period, indicating strong market interest [18][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on the global data center supply chain and recommends companies such as Industrial Fulian, Shenghong Technology, and SMIC [27]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC (TSM.US) with a target price of $385.27, highlighting strong revenue and gross margin expectations for Q4 2025, driven by a 55% contribution from HPC and continuous growth in advanced process revenue [1] Group 1 - TSMC's revenue growth guidance for 2026 is nearly 30%, indicating robust future performance [1] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) are set to reach a historical high, reflecting the company's confidence in expansion [1] - AI is identified as a key driver for long-term growth, leading to an upward revision in profit forecasts [1] Group 2 - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is only 28 times, suggesting a reasonable valuation [1]

中信建投维持台积电买入评级，目标价385.27美元。 ...