智通财经2月4日讯（编辑 马兰）随着人工智能热潮的继续推进，英伟达很可能失去如今的主导地位， 因为越来越多的大型数据中心运营商为降低成本，正在采购定制芯片（ASIC），这将让英伟达的通用 型芯片"跌落云端"。 ASIC与GPU 英伟达GPU的核心优势是大规模并行计算能力，适合处理矩阵乘法、卷积运算等人工智能任务。但随着 数据中心投入和能耗问题的不断加剧，各大数据中心所有公司正在思考更加高效简约，且符合自身需求 的解决方案。 如博通为谷歌设计的TPU，其核心是脉动阵列架构，专注于矩阵乘法等张量运算，其能效比是英伟达 H100的2到3倍，而推理成本则低30%至40%。高盛分析师James Schneider指出，TPU技术从v6发展到v7 还将帮助每个token的成本下降70%。 研究公司Counterpoint在一份报告中指出，博通预计将在2027年继续保持其作为顶级AI服务器计算ASIC 设计合作伙伴的领先地位，市场份额进一步扩大至60%。 与此同时，与博通合作紧密的台积电也将快速扩张。作为定制芯片的主要代工选择，该公司几乎完全吃 下全球前十大数据中心及ASIC客户的晶圆制造订单，市场份额接近99%。 Cou ...

在1月31日的饭局结束后，黄仁勋在饭店门口接受媒体采访表 示 ， 2026 年 将 是 行 业 " 极 度 吃 紧 " 的 一 年 ， 对 高 带 宽 内 存 （HBM）和先进封装的需求将大幅爆发。算力，在2026年或 许依然会是资本市场的"热词"。 作者：郑晨烨 封图：视觉中国 2026年1月31日晚，一张合影开始在社交平台流传。 照片的背景是中国台湾省台北市的砖窑古早味怀旧餐厅，画面中，英伟达CEO黄仁勋与台积电董 事长魏哲家、鸿海董事长刘扬伟等多位AI供应链高管面对镜头，集体竖起了大拇指。 在这张合影中，黄仁勋坐在第一排正中央，他的身边是台积电董事长魏哲家、联发科执行长蔡力 行、广达电脑董事长林百里，纬创资通董事长林宪铭。在黄仁勋身后的，还有鸿海精密董事长刘扬 伟 、 和 硕 联 合 科 技 董 事 长 童 子 贤 、 工 业 富 联 （ 601138.SH ） 董 事 长 郑 弘 孟 、 胜 宏 科 技 （300476.SZ）董事长陈涛。全球绝大多数的AI服务器，都要在这些人的工厂里完成组装。 当天晚上，黄仁勋在台北市宴请了40多位供应链高管，根据社交平台流传的菜单，这顿饭的菜色 包括豆酥鳕鱼、芋头米 ...

on 03-Feb-2026 3 February 2026 Global Semiconductors Global Semis: Can Intel challenge TSMC with EMIB-T? And who benefits in the supply chain? David Dai, CFA +852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Mark Li +852 2123 2645 mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin +852 2123 2683 jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang +852 2123 2632 juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano +44 20 7762 1857 carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA +852 2123 2623 edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA +852 2123 2669 yipin.cai@ber ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing importance of AI stocks in the stock market, particularly focusing on companies like Nvidia and OpenAI that are at the forefront of generative AI technology [1] Industry Overview - The AI sector is experiencing a boom, but selecting individual winners is challenging due to competitive pressures and risks faced by leading companies like Nvidia and TSMC [2] - TSMC, while a dominant player in chip manufacturing, faces competition from Intel and is also impacted by geopolitical risks due to its location in Taiwan [2] Investment Vehicle - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are presented as a smart alternative for investors seeking exposure to the stock market without the need to pick individual stocks [3] - The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is highlighted as a top performer since its inception in 2011, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [4][6] ETF Performance - The SMH ETF has a strong historical performance, particularly during the AI boom, and includes major chip stocks such as Nvidia (19.3% of net assets) and TSMC (10.2%) among its top holdings [6][7] - Recent performance of ASML and Intel indicates that the AI boom is benefiting even those companies that have previously lagged behind [8] Future Growth Potential - The demand for semiconductors is expected to grow due to technological advancements, with increasing reliance on semiconductors in various products and infrastructure [11] - Despite a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 46, the growth potential of companies within the SMH ETF, such as Nvidia's 62% revenue growth, suggests that the ETF may be undervalued on a forward basis [12] Diversification Benefits - The VanEck Semiconductor ETF offers a good alternative to the S&P 500 by providing exposure to international stocks like TSMC and ASML, which are not included in the index [13]

分析师 1: 各位领导，大家晚上好。我是天风证券传媒分析师王子杰今天我们这个 TMT 周会的主题 是国内外 AI 年报分析展望。接下来有请我们所长海清总先为大家进行一个分享。 分析师 2: 包括微软这些，对吧，这个代表性的都是 Meta 对吧，这些都是超预期的，就是基本开支 都是超预期的，所以对于算力的投入仍然是坚定不移，而且是超预期的这个警惕。我们可 以看到北美仍然是非常乐观。所以对应的我们也看到在海外算力公司的业绩上，比如说像 闪迪呀，也是非常爆表，对吧这个超预期。已经预期很高了，仍然在大超预期，所以海外 算力的这个业绩也很突出。那么当然我们又回到国内公司的海外算力公司，标地站，天孚 通信，对吧，来看到业绩低于预期，但是股价利空出尽就一路往上涨。 然后搞 CPU，现在很活跃。所以这个阶段是偏炒主题，所以你看，现在业绩虽然低于预期， 没关系，你炒主题，对吧？CPU 很强势，对吧？这个照样能够大涨。那么另外一方面，就 是像海外创业的新易盛，计算业绩其实超预期，尤其新易盛大超预期，结果，对吧，这个 也是遭遇了回调，就是因为这个阶段其实是偏这个主题的一个阶段。所以有业绩，而且 26 年的业绩，25 年业绩，大家可 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Semiconductor and Construction - **Key Companies**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), Micron, Samsung, Intel, Longxing Technology, SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), and others Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of AI on Semiconductor Capital Expenditure**: The rise of AI is driving increased capital expenditure in the semiconductor industry, which in turn affects the construction sector, particularly in cleanroom construction and IDC (Internet Data Center) bidding areas. This demand surge is attributed to the global tech industry's growth, especially in AI [1][2] 2. **Significant Capital Expenditure by TSMC**: TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to reach $40.9 billion in 2025 and $56 billion in 2026, marking a historical high. This reflects a broader trend of increased capital spending among major semiconductor firms [4][12] 3. **Global Semiconductor Investment Trends**: The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditure, with major players like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel leading the charge. The U.S. and Taiwan have reached trade agreements that will facilitate a $250 billion investment in the semiconductor supply chain [4][12] 4. **Cleanroom and IDC Construction Opportunities**: Analysts recommend focusing on cleanroom construction and IDC bidding as these areas are expected to see high demand due to the tech industry's growth. Companies like China Energy Construction and Sensen Da A are highlighted for their advantages in IDC construction and cloud computing services [2][19] 5. **Challenges in the Construction Industry**: The construction sector faces challenges such as labor shortages, trade tensions, and the need for overseas subsidiaries. However, the industry is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by global manufacturing trends and resource security capital expenditure [3][11] 6. **Investment in IDC and Cloud Infrastructure**: Major internet companies and telecom operators in China are accelerating investments in IDC and cloud infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion RMB in AI over the next three years. This trend is expected to continue into 2026 [19][20] 7. **Market Dynamics and Valuation Trends**: The cleanroom industry is viewed as a significant investment opportunity, with a focus on stock price positions, order expectations, and customer bidding forecasts rather than just performance metrics. The current market dynamics suggest a potential for valuation increases driven by industry trends [8][16] 8. **Domestic Semiconductor Companies' Growth**: Domestic semiconductor firms like Longxing Technology and SMIC are in a critical phase of expansion and technological upgrades, with capital expenditures expected to grow. The market is increasingly focusing on these companies due to their growth potential [14][15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Trade Agreements and Tariffs**: The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductor products from 20% to 15% as part of a trade agreement, which is expected to facilitate investment in the semiconductor sector [12] - **Focus on Cleanroom and IDC Construction**: The emphasis on cleanroom and IDC construction reflects a broader trend in the construction industry, where demand is increasingly driven by technological advancements rather than traditional construction metrics [8][10] - **Emerging Companies in the IDC Space**: Companies like China Telecom's subsidiary and Sensen Da A are positioned as key players in the IDC construction and cloud computing sectors, indicating a shift in investment focus towards these emerging firms [17][18]

Core Insights - Major investments in AI infrastructure are not leading to the same balance sheet concerns seen during the late 1990s telecom boom, as companies today have stronger earnings relative to their interest obligations [1] - The Alger AI Enablers & Adopters ETF (ALAI) is focused on companies that fund expansion primarily through free cash flow rather than excessive debt, reflecting a more sustainable financial approach [1] Group 1: Financial Health of Companies - Current corporate fundamentals are in better shape compared to the internet buildout period, with the S&P 500's interest coverage ratio at 8.4x as of November 30, 2025, nearly double the 4.7x recorded in December 1999 [1] - U.S. investment-grade corporate bond issuance exceeded $1.5 trillion in 2025, indicating robust corporate financial health [1] Group 2: AI Infrastructure Funding - Companies deploying AI infrastructure today maintain strong cash flow and healthy balance sheets, allowing them to fund capital expenditures from operating cash flow [1] - The ALAI ETF attracted over $245 million in net inflows in 2025, with $54.5 million in Q4 alone, demonstrating investor confidence in this quality-focused approach [1] Group 3: ETF Performance - The ALAI ETF returned 40.3% in 2025 and has a net expense ratio of 0.55%, with assets under management totaling $298.2 million [1] - As of January 16, 2026, NVIDIA Corp. is the largest holding in ALAI at 12.3%, followed by Microsoft Corp. at 8.7%, Amazon.com, Inc. at 8.2%, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. at 6.0% [1]

Every decade, there seems to be a new investing trend that pops up. While some of these trends have real momentum behind them, others fizzle out before they can make a big impact. The primary investment theme over the past few years has undeniably been artificial intelligence (AI) investing. There have already been billions, if not trillions of dollars, spent on computing hardware to power AI workloads. By 2030, Nvidia expects annual data center spending to be $3 trillion to $4 trillion. That's a massive ...

Core Insights - The dinner hosted by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang in Taipei included key executives from major companies in the AI supply chain, highlighting the importance of collaboration in the industry [2][3] - Huang emphasized the challenges in the production of NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, and indicated that the supply chain will be "extremely tight" in 2026 [3][12] - The event showcased the significant market value of the participating companies, collectively exceeding $5 trillion [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - TSMC's chairman, Wei Zhejia, confirmed that TSMC needs to work hard to meet NVIDIA's demand for wafers and CoWoS packaging capacity, with NVIDIA accounting for over 60% of TSMC's CoWoS demand in 2025 [3][4] - Major Taiwanese manufacturers like Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, and Wistron are responsible for assembling NVIDIA's AI supercomputing systems, indicating a clear division of labor within the supply chain [5] - The introduction of liquid cooling solutions by companies like Qihong Technology reflects the increasing power demands of new chips, necessitating advanced thermal management [5][6] Financial Performance - Victory Technology, a PCB manufacturer, anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a rise of 260.35% to 295.00% year-on-year, driven by high-value product orders related to AI computing [6][7] - Industrial Fulian, a subsidiary of Hon Hai, expects a net profit increase of 51% to 54% for 2025, with a notable growth in cloud service server revenue [7][8] - Companies in the optical module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, are also experiencing substantial growth, with projected net profits increasing by up to 128.17% [8][9] Emerging Competitors - Domestic chip companies like Cambrian are achieving significant revenue growth, with projections indicating a 410.87% to 496.02% increase in 2025, marking their first annual profit [10][11] - The rise of domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Moer Technology and Tianxu Zhixin, reflects a shift towards local alternatives in the computing power market, driven by capital market support [11][12] - Huang's comments on the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging solutions suggest ongoing opportunities in the semiconductor sector [12]

I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA, AVGO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this articl ...