（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 中信证券表示，台积电2025年业绩创纪录，2026年资本支出大幅上调，表明了AI算力与先进制程带来 的持续红利。面对国内百万片级的先进产能缺口，国内晶圆厂正迎来扩产热潮，为设备市场释放出千亿 美元的空间，且国产化率有望实现翻倍增长。中信证券看好半导体设备的投资机遇，持续推荐具备平台 化能力的领军企业及高弹性细分龙头。 1月16日，三大指数早盘冲高后震荡回落，沪指跌0.26%报4101.91点。板块上，半导体概念股狂飙，凯 德石英涨超20%领涨，天岳先进、甬矽电子20cm涨停，蓝箭电子、江波龙等多只概念股涨超10%跟涨。 消息面上，台积电昨日披露2026年资本支出，预计达520亿美元～560亿美元，大幅超出市场预期，其中 设备投入资金超预期增加，未来两年全球扩产空间进一步提升。 ...

昨天跟大家分析了，中证500、沪深300、A500等ETF显著放量，并且这些ETF很多都是折价的，说明是有大资金在抛售，谁有那么大能量呢？ 今天早上我打开wind一看，昨天股票型ETF流出超过700亿。这还没完，今天沪深300、中证500、A500等ETF继续爆量，丝毫不逊色于昨天，然后大家可以 看到依然是折价居多，说明大资金在继续卖出ETF。如果说提高融资保证金比例只是点刹，那这卖出ETF压盘力度可就加大了。 | 序号 代码 | | 美国 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 流行率 成交额 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 510300 | 宽 沪深300ETF华泰柏瑞 | 4.859 c | -0.016 | -0.33% | -0.04% 259.23亿 | | 2 | 510330 | 宽 沪深300ETF华夏 | 4.937 c | -0.005 | -0.10% | 0.08% 227.05亿 | | 3 | 510500 | 宽 XD中证500ETF | 8.295 c | 0.018 | 0.22% | -0.22 ...

Index Performance - HSI closed at 26,924, down 0.3% daily and up 5.0% YTD [2] - HSCEI closed at 9,267, down 0.5% daily and up 4.0% YTD [2] - HSCCI closed at 4,154, up 0.4% daily and up 3.4% YTD [2] - MSCI HK closed at 14,490, up 0.3% daily and up 5.9% YTD [2] - MSCI CHINA closed at 87, down 1.0% daily and up 5.0% YTD [2] - FTSE CHINA A50 closed at 15,340, unchanged daily and up 0.2% YTD [2] - CSI 300 closed at 4,751, up 0.2% daily and up 2.6% YTD [2] - TWSE closed at 30,811, down 0.4% daily and up 6.4% YTD [2] - SENSEX closed at 83,628, down 0.3% daily and down 1.9% YTD [2] - NIKKEI 225 closed at 54,111, down 0.4% daily and up 7.5% YTD [2] - KOSPI closed at 4,798, up 1.6% daily and up 13.8% YTD [2] - ASX 200 closed at 8,821, down 0.1% daily and up 1.7% YTD [2] - DJIA closed at 49,442, up 0.6% daily and up 2.9% YTD [2] - S&P 500 closed at 6,944, up 0.3% daily and up 1.4% YTD [2] - FTSE 100 closed at 10,239, up 0.5% daily and up 3.1% YTD [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude closed at US$64/bbl, down 4.1% daily and up 4.8% YTD [3] - Gold closed at US$4,616/oz, down 0.2% daily and up 6.9% YTD [3] - Copper closed at US$13,189/t, up 0.2% daily and up 6.2% YTD [3] - Aluminum closed at US$3,203/t, down 0.5% daily and up 7.9% YTD [3] - Nickel closed at US$18,495/t, up 5.8% daily and up 12.1% YTD [3] - CH domestic steel rebar 25 closed at RMB3,244/t, up 0.1% daily and up 0.1% YTD [3] - CH domestic high speed wire closed at RMB3,700/t, unchanged daily and up 0.3% YTD [3] - CH domestic hot rolled steel closed at RMB3,287/t, down 0.1% daily and up 0.5% YTD [3] - CH domestic cold rolled steel closed at RMB3,800/t, down 0.1% daily and down 0.1% YTD [3] - BDI closed at 1,608, unchanged daily and down 14.3% YTD [3] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - China's Retail Sales YoY in January 19th actual was 1.3%, higher than the consensus of 1.1% [4] - China's Industrial Production YoY in January 19th actual was 4.8%, lower than the consensus of 5.0% [4] - China's Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY in January 19th actual was -2.6%, higher than the consensus of -3.1% [4] - China's Property Investment YTD YoY in January 19th actual was -15.9%, higher than the consensus of -16.5% [4] - China's Residential Property Sales YTD YoY in January 19th actual was -11.2% [4] - China's Surveyed Jobless Rate in January 19th actual was 5.1%, lower than the consensus of 5.2% [4] - China's GDP YoY in January 19th actual was 4.8%, higher than the consensus of 4.5% [4] - China's GDP YTD YoY in January 19th actual was 5.2%, higher than the consensus of 5.0% [4] - China's 1-Year Loan Prime Rate on January 20th remained at 3.0% as expected [4] - China's 5-Year Loan Prime Rate on January 20th remained at 3.5% as expected [4] - US PCE Price Index YoY in January 22nd actual was 2.8% [4] - US Core PCE Price Index YoY in January 22nd actual was 2.8%, in line with the consensus [4] - US Personal Income MoM in January 22nd actual was 0.4%, in line with the consensus [4] - US Personal Spending MoM in January 22nd actual was 0.4%, lower than the consensus of 0.5% [4] - US GDP Annualized QoQ in January 22nd actual was 4.3%, in line with the consensus [4] - US S&P Global US Services PMI in January 23rd actual was 52.5%, lower than the consensus of 52.8% [4] - US U. of Mich. Sentiment in January 23rd actual was 54.0%, in line with the consensus [4] - US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI in January 23rd actual was 51.8%, lower than the consensus of 52.0% [4] - BOJ Target Rate in January 23rd actual was 0.8%, in line with the consensus [4] New Loans and Monetary Policy - In December, new loans reached RMB910bn, down RMB80bn YoY, narrowing the YoY decline from -32.8% in November to -8.1% [6][8] - Corporate short - term, medium - and long - term loans, and bond financing bounced up YoY in December, while household sector credit demand remained sluggish [6][8] - Monetary policymakers announced incremental loosening policies of structural monetary tools and signaled room for further RRR and policy rate cuts [7][8] TSMC - Rating: BUY (TT & ADR). TSMC's 4Q25 EPS was 8% above consensus, and 1Q26 sales/margins are ahead of expectations [9][13] - The 2026 outlook projects sales growing close to 30% YoY with US$52 - 56bn CAPEX [9][13] - Management lifted long - term guidance, targeting 25% / mid - to - high 50s Group / AI sales CAGR (2024 - 29) and a 56% gross margin [10][13] - Target prices are raised to NT$2,420 / US$445 based on 24x 2026 - 27 P/E and a 16% premium [11][14] Li Ning - Rating: HOLD. Li Ning's 4Q25 retail sell - through was down LSD YoY, affected by weak consumer sentiment [15][17] - The full - year 2025 results were in line with guidance, with revenue achieving marginal growth and NPM approaching the upper end of HSD [15][17] - The inflection point may take longer due to athleisure adjustment and Olympic marketing investment lag [16][17] - The current 2025/2026 P/E valuation of 17x/16x appears full [16][17] Uranium Sector - Uranium spot price rose to US$83.5/lb, and major uranium ETFs rallied 22% YTD [18][20] - The White House's proclamation on critical materials may lead to supportive policies for uranium [19][20] - Positive outlook for the uranium sector in 2026, with top pick Kazatomprom, also recommending CGN Mining and Cameco [19][20] CMOC Group - Rating: HOLD. CMOC expects 2025 net profit of RMB20.0 - 20.8bn, up 48 - 54%, and 2025 copper output grew 14% YoY to 741k tonnes [21][23] - 2025 profit was 4 - 8% below forecast, though copper output was 5% above forecast; 2026 copper output target is 6 - 14% above forecast [22][23] - Forecasts and HOLD rating remain unchanged, and the market may react positively to output guidance [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is significantly accelerating its expansion plans in the United States, driven by strong confidence in the growing demand for AI chips, with a total investment of $165 billion in the U.S. and a record capital expenditure plan for 2026 reaching up to $56 billion, a 37% increase from 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Expansion Plans - TSMC has purchased an additional 900 acres of land in Arizona to support its upgraded expansion plans, as the original 1,100 acres was insufficient for the construction of six fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research center [1][2]. - The new land acquisition provides the physical foundation for TSMC's "super-sized fab cluster" in the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Financial Projections - TSMC's capital expenditure midpoint for 2026 is expected to grow by over 30% compared to 2025, reflecting the company's assessment of the sustainability of AI chip demand [2]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of nearly 30% in 2026, exceeding analyst expectations [1]. Group 3: Manufacturing Progress - TSMC's first U.S. factory has begun mass production, with performance exceeding expectations, achieving yield and technology levels comparable to its leading facilities in Taiwan [3]. - The timeline for the second Arizona factory has been advanced to the second half of 2027, and construction for the third factory will accelerate this year [3]. - TSMC has started the permitting process for a fourth factory, while the most advanced technologies will continue to be developed and scaled in Taiwan [3]. Group 4: Earnings Guidance - TSMC's first-quarter earnings guidance has surpassed market expectations, with projected revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, higher than the Bloomberg consensus of $33.22 billion [3]. - The company has provided gross margin and operating margin guidance of 63%-65% and 54%-56%, respectively, significantly above market estimates [3].

人形机器人板块亦走强，宁波华翔（002048.SZ）、恒工精密（301261.SZ）、方正电机（002196.SZ）、五洲新春（603667.SH）等多股大涨。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，包括海外特斯拉、Figure、波士顿动力等海外巨头及国内宇树、智元等国内领先企业有望在生态链协同情况下，在感知、决策、 执行等核心环节实现跨越式突破，抢占机器人产业ChatGPT时刻的先发优势，共同推动人形机器人从实验室走向规模化商用的新阶段。 1月16日，三大指数震荡调整，截至收盘，上证指数跌0.26%，深证成指跌0.18%，创业板指跌0.2%，科创50涨1.35%。两市超过2200只股票飘红，两市成交 额也达到了约3.03万亿元。 半导体板块涨幅居前，存储芯片、半导体设备概念活跃，天岳先进（688234.SH）涨20%，佰维存储（688525.SH）涨超17%，江波龙（301308.SZ）涨超 13%，矽电股份（301629.SZ）、拓荆科技（688072.SH）上涨。 台积电最新公布2025年四季度财报，单季度营收首次突破10460.9亿新台币，并将2026年资本支出计划最高将达560亿美元，创下该公司历史新高。 存储方 ...

据Emily Tan介绍，台积电为其在亚利桑那州最初购买的1100英亩土地制定的原计划包括六座晶圆厂、 两座先进封装设施和一个研发中心。然而，事实证明这片土地不足以支撑该公司的扩张计划，促使公司 又购买了900英亩土地。Emily Tan表示，原计划中的部分设施现在将建在这第二块土地上，剩余土地 则"为未来预留灵活性"。 智通财经APP获悉，在又一份亮眼财报和美台贸易协议的推动下，芯片代工巨头台积电(TSM.US)正准 备加速其在美国亚利桑那州的扩张计划。台积电此前已承诺在美国投资1650亿美元，以配合美国政府重 建国内芯片制造业的计划。但台积电高管最新暗示，随着该公司扩大产能以满足人工智能(AI)芯片需 求，对美投资额将进一步增加。 台积电首席财务官Emily Tan在接受采访时表示，该公司将继续增加在亚利桑那州的投资。Emily Tan表 示："我们对AI的宏大趋势抱有坚定信心，这正是我们加大资本支出以扩大在台湾和美国产能的原 因。""不仅是为了扩张，也是尽可能尝试加速，以满足需求或缩小供需缺口。" Emily Tan发表此番言论之前，台积电首席执行官魏哲家在财报电话会议上就表示，该公司近期在亚利 桑那州 ...

Group 1: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - TSMC has made a strategic move by investing $250 billion in chip production in the U.S., which includes a reduction in U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese imports from 20% to 15% [1] - The company has already purchased land in Arizona and is considering further investments in the U.S. beyond current plans, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its operations [2] - TSMC reported strong earnings and is raising its expected capital expenditure for 2026, reflecting high demand for artificial intelligence technologies [3] Group 2: Semiconductor and Technology Sector - The positive earnings report from TSMC has contributed to a rally in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, with companies like Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Applied Materials seeing stock price increases [3] - European chip-making equipment producers, such as ASML and ASM International, also experienced stock price gains, indicating a broader positive sentiment in the semiconductor industry [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The technology sector in Europe is reaching record highs, driven by a rally in technology shares not seen since 2000, alongside positive economic data from Germany [4] - Overall market sentiment has been buoyed by geopolitical developments, including a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East, which has positively impacted oil prices [4]

据追风交易台消息，高盛Bruce Lu团队15日发布台积电最新研报，大幅上调未来增长预期与盈利能力目标，认为该公司正在进入AI驱动的新一轮 多年增长周期。高盛将12个月目标价从新台币2330元上调至2600元，维持买入评级及亚太信心名单地位。 台积电在1月15日召开的4季度分析师会议上提供了超预期的业务展望。公司将AI加速器相关营收的五年复合增长率（2024-2029年）从此前的mid- 40%上调至mid-to-high 50%，同时将整体营收五年复合增长率目标从20%提升至接近25%。管理层表示，AI驱动的供需失衡仍未解决，先进制程产 能持续紧张，高盛预计这一供需缺口将持续至2027年。 盈利能力方面，台积电将长期毛利率目标从"53%及以上"上调至"56%及以上"，4季度实际毛利率达62.3%，超出市场预期。尽管海外产能爬坡预计 在2026年带来2-3个百分点的毛利率稀释，但生产效率提升将直接贡献利润。高盛预计2026/27年毛利率将分别达到63.2%/64.0%，远高于2025年的 59.9%。 此外，先进封装正在成为台积电的第二增长引擎。管理层指引该业务2025年营收占比达8%，2026年将升至略高于 ...

2026年的钟声刚刚敲响，全球科技和金融市场的目光便被一道来自东方的强光所穿透。 这道光，源自台积电（TSMC）——1月15日，台积电发布25Q4财报与26Q1业绩指引，营收、利润、毛利率、资本开支……每一个关键指标都以碾压之势 超越了华尔街最乐观的分析师预测。 这已不再是简单的"增长"，而是一种"爆炸"。这不是一家公司的财报，而是一个时代的宣言：由人工智能（AI）驱动的第四次工业革命，其唯一且不可动 摇的引擎核心，正以前所未有的功率全速运转。 当摩根大通紧急上调其AI业务增速至惊人的59%，当其未来三年的资本支出预示着一个千亿美金级别的投资海啸，我们必须重新审视这家公司。 本文将深入解构台积电这份"封神"的业绩报告背后，所揭示的五大支柱，看它如何以前沿技术、先进封装、全球布局和未来视野，铸就其坚不可摧的帝 国。 01 数字的咆哮——当"印钞机"开启涡轮增压模式 简单回顾一下台积电25Q4的关键业绩数据： 营收：1.046万亿新台币，同比增长20.5%。 净利润：5,057亿新台币，远超预期的4,670亿，同比猛增35%。 毛利率：62.3%，再次突破预期天花板的60.6%。 营收指引：346-358亿美元， ...

1月15日，美国商务部发布声明称，与中国台湾地区达成所谓的"贸易协议"。 根据这份协议，台湾地区的芯片与科技企业将对美投资至少2500亿美元用于产能建设，台湾还需为这些企业提供2500亿美元的信贷担保。 作为交换，美国将对台湾地区征收的20%关税下调至15%，并承诺对非专利药及其原料药、飞机零部件和部分天然资源免征对等关税。 美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）报道称，美国商务部长卢特尼克15日在接受采访时声称，不赴美建厂的台湾芯片企业将面临100%的关税惩罚，并宣 称美方目标是将台湾40%的半导体供应链转移至美国本土。 作为台湾半导体产业的核心，台积电早已成为美方锁定的重点围猎目标。 卢特尼克表示，台积电已在美国亚利桑那州购地，计划借此次协议进一步扩大当地产能。 "他们刚在现有厂区附近购置了数百英亩土地，具体规划还需经其董事会审议，我们会给予充足时间。"卢特尼克说。 据报道，台积电此前已在亚利桑那州砸下400亿美元，专为苹果、英伟达等美国企业生产芯片。 美国商务部长卢特尼克（右）接受CNBC采访。 视频截图 值得一提的是，美方在协议中设置的所谓"优惠条款"，看似让利，实则步步收紧对台湾地区产业的控制。 协议 ...