来源：中国能源网 投资建议 本周科技行情走强，海外大厂AI布局加速落地，前期AI景气度担忧情绪有所缓解，存储、晶圆厂等均 存在涨价行情。受益标的：中芯国际、北京君正、华丰科技、北方华创、中微公司、德明利、香农芯 创、兆易创新等。 行业速递：存储涨价持续，终端新品催化不断，算力布局持续深化 终端：华为nova15重磅发布，视涯科技成功过会。12月21日，三星电子正式公布业内首款2纳米工艺智 能手机应用处理器Exynos2600，采用了基于Arm v9.3架构的新10核CPU设计，三星宣称其性能提升了高 达39%。12月22日，华为全场景新品发布会正式发布了华为nova15系列，其中华为nova15Pro搭载麒麟 9010S处理器，配备正反红枫影像系统，支持鸿蒙智慧通信。12月24日，视涯科技IPO过会。 算力：大厂算力合作持续加强，Groq和英伟达签订非独家推理技术许可协议。美国密歇根州监管机构 正式批准了甲骨文与Open AI合作建设的大型数据中心项目，装机容量为1.4GW。据路透社报道，英伟 达计划于2026年2月中旬开始向中国发货H200芯片。字节已初步计划在2026年投入1600亿元的资本⽀ 出。Gro ...

业界人士认为，明年英伟达、超微等大客户新平台陆续推出，加上博通等非苹客户积极扩大AI应用领 域，成为台积电3纳米以下先进制程持续供不应求的关键动能。 12月29日，据台湾经济日报，受惠AI应用火热，台积电3纳米以下先进制程产能吃紧。消息称台积电已 和客户沟通，将从2026年至2029年连续四年调升先进制程报价，2026年新报价将从元旦起生效。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 ...

台积电预定2026年元月15日召开实体法说会，外界聚焦2026年首季展望及涨价议题。法人认为，台 积电明年首季可望淡季不淡，主因辉达、超微等大客户新平台陆续推出，加上博通等非苹客户积极扩 大AI应用领域，成为台积电3纳米以下先进制程持续供不应求的关键动能。 报价方面，业界传出，台积电为厘清真实需求，已和客户沟通，将自2026年起至2029年连续四年涨 价。不过，即便台积电向客户提出涨价诉求，客户仍踊跃预定先进制程产能，目前AI军备竞赛仍未见 熄火。 据悉，台积电2026年涨价幅度为个位数百分比，借此反映生产成本垫高与产能供不应求盛况。不过， 个别客户依据采购等级与情况，报价涨幅不一。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 台积电受惠AI应用火热，驱动3纳米以下先进制程产能吃紧，传出已和客户沟通，将从2026年至2029 年连续四年调升先进制程报价，2026年新报价将从元旦起生效，法人看好将挹注台积电明年首季传统 淡季业绩持续冲锋，有望至少持平本季甚是小幅季增，挑战历年最旺的第1季。 研究机构与法人预期，台积电2026年先进制程报价有望看涨3%至10%不等，个别先进制程调升幅度 不一，但皆有望比今年高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The growth in AI demand is driving global storage and advanced process capacity expansion, with expectations for accelerated domestic storage and advanced process expansion in 2026-2027. Domestic equipment manufacturers are seeing a positive order trend, and companies with strong positioning and market share in storage equipment are likely to benefit. The outlook for domestic computing power demand is also positive, with companies like Moer and Muxi expected to achieve high revenue growth in 2025. The storage sector is experiencing continuous price increases, and major companies anticipate a favorable performance trend in Q4. Structural opportunities still exist despite limited bit output next year [3][4][5]. Industry Prosperity Tracking 1. **Demand Side**: In 2026, storage price increases may constrain demand, but AI terminal innovation and computing power construction are expected to be highlights. Global smartphone sales are projected to decline by 0.9% year-on-year in 2026, with significant pressure on mid-range Android phones. The PC market saw a 9.4% year-on-year increase in global shipments in Q3 2025, but storage pressures are anticipated in 2026. The AI PC upgrade cycle is expected to start in 2026-2027. Wearable devices, particularly AI glasses, are expected to see high growth, with global sales projected to reach 7 million units in 2025 [4][5]. 2. **Inventory Side**: The inventory adjustment for power MCUs and analog DOIs is nearly complete. In Q3 2025, the average inventory of major mobile chain chip manufacturers increased, while the DOI for overseas manufacturers decreased. PC chain chip manufacturers saw an increase in inventory and DOI [5]. 3. **Supply Side**: Global wafer fab capital expenditures are expected to continue growing in 2026, with both advanced and mature process expansions anticipated in China. DRAM capital expenditures are projected to grow by 14% in 2026, while NAND capital expenditures are expected to increase by 5%. Domestic storage manufacturers are expected to continue expanding production, with market share likely to increase [5][6]. 4. **Price Side**: In Q4 2025, DRAM and NAND spot prices are expected to continue rising, with the DXI index reaching a historical high of over 380,000. The supply-demand gap for DDR4 products remains, leading to accelerated price increases for 8G and 16G products. NAND Flash products are benefiting from increased storage capacity demand from AI servers [6]. 5. **Sales Side**: Semiconductor sales are expected to continue growing, driven by AI demand. WSTS has revised the global semiconductor sales forecast for 2026 to $975.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.3%. The current semiconductor cycle has been recovering since February 2023, with global semiconductor sales in October 2025 reaching $72.7 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase [6][7]. Industry Chain Tracking 1. **Design/IDM**: AI is driving demand for related chips, with a focus on computing power chips and the recovery of the sector. Nvidia's H200 sales in China have been released, and companies like Moer and Muxi are expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2025 [7][8]. 2. **SoC and MCU**: In H2 2025, demand from domestic downstream customers is expected to slow down, with a focus on future AI applications. The MCU market is experiencing a mild recovery, while SoC companies are facing growth slowdowns due to rising storage chip prices [8]. 3. **Storage**: Major companies expect a favorable performance trend in Q4, with Taiwanese module and niche manufacturers seeing high revenue growth in November. However, the price increases in storage may pose challenges for global terminal products [8]. 4. **Analog**: AI demand is becoming a growth engine for major manufacturers, with domestic companies increasing their focus on growth areas such as servers and robotics [9]. 5. **Power Semiconductors**: AI power demand is leading the market, with domestic power companies optimistic about a positive trend in Q4. Infineon has raised its revenue guidance for AI data center business to €1.5 billion for FY26 [11]. 6. **Foundry**: Demand for advanced processes remains strong, while mature processes are experiencing a mild recovery. Domestic companies like SMIC and Huahong are currently facing supply shortages [12]. 7. **Packaging and Testing**: The demand for advanced packaging is expected to remain optimistic in 2026, with a focus on domestic computing power and storage demand [12]. 8. **Equipment, Materials, and Components**: The domestic storage manufacturers are expected to continue expanding production, benefiting equipment companies with strong market positions. The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow, with a focus on reducing reliance on foreign components [13].

// 热点头条 // 1. 宁德时代：宣布明年钠电池将在换电、乘用车、商用车等领域大规模应用，标志着钠离子电池技术正 式进入商业化落地阶段，有望缓解动力电池行业对锂资源的依赖，为新能源产业链带来新的增长极。 2. LG新能源：继上周解除与福特汽车价值约9.6万亿韩元电池供货合同后，又宣布解除与美国FBPS价值 约3.9万亿韩元的电池供货合同，两笔合同金额合计相当于公司2024年销售额的一半以上，公司表示将 优化客户结构以降低经营风险。 3. 台积电：台湾宜兰外海发生6.6级地震后，新竹科学园区内部分厂区达到疏散标准，公司立即启动紧 急应变程序组织员工疏散及清点工作，目前各厂区安全生产系统运行正常，人员已陆续返回岗位，生产 未受显著影响。 // 大中华地区公司要闻 // 1. 吉利汽车：就合同纠纷正式起诉欣旺达，索赔金额高达23亿元，此次诉讼涉及动力电池供应相关协议 履行问题，双方尚未就和解达成一致，案件已进入司法程序，市场密切关注对新能源汽车供应链的潜在 影响。 2. 小米集团：联合创始人、执行董事、副董事长林斌计划自2026年12月开始，每12个月出售金额不超过 5亿美元的公司B类普通股，累计出售总金额不超 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investing in semiconductor stocks has been profitable over the last three years due to the critical role of chips in generative AI development, with companies like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron Technology leading the charge [1] Group 1: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's Role - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a key player in the semiconductor industry, often overshadowed by its peers but crucial for the future of AI [2] - TSMC is the largest chip manufacturer globally by revenue, providing essential fabrication processes for leading chip designers like Nvidia and AMD [4][5] Group 2: Growth and Demand - TSMC's revenue has been growing significantly, driven by the demand for AI accelerators and next-generation chips from Nvidia and AMD, indicating a steepening revenue trajectory [6] - As demand for AI chips and data centers increases, TSMC is positioned for explosive long-term growth, playing a vital supporting role in the generative AI landscape [7]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is gaining attention among billionaire investors, indicating strong confidence in its future growth, particularly in the context of rising demand for artificial intelligence technologies [3][10]. Company Overview - TSMC is a significant player in the semiconductor industry, supplying chips to major competitors like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, which positions it favorably amidst increasing competition in the AI sector [7]. - The company has a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion and a gross margin of 57.75%, with a current stock price of $302.84 [9]. Investment Insights - Four prominent billionaires hold shares in TSMC, reflecting their bullish outlook on the company's prospects: Chase Coleman (4% of portfolio), Steve Mandel (6.2%), David Tepper (4%), and Daniel Loeb (3.7%) [8]. - TSMC's stock has shown stability, with a slight increase of around 3% since the last reported holdings, suggesting continued investor confidence [11]. Market Context - Nvidia projects global data center capital expenditures to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, a significant increase from $600 billion in 2025, which bodes well for TSMC as a key chip supplier [9]. - The anticipated growth in the computing market is estimated to be around $1 trillion by 2030, further enhancing TSMC's market position [9]. Future Outlook - TSMC is expected to experience substantial growth as demand for AI technologies ramps up, with projections indicating it could "skyrocket" in 2026 [3][12]. - The company's valuation at 23 times 2026 earnings is considered reasonable compared to peers, making it an attractive investment opportunity [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant recovery in the electronic sector, with a notable increase in stock prices driven by improved sentiment around AI and strong performance in semiconductor and consumer electronics segments [3][4] - The storage market continues to show high demand, with price increases for NAND flash wafers and SSDs, reflecting a bullish outlook for the sector [6][7] Market Review - The electronic industry index rose by 4.71% this week, with semiconductors up 5.07% and consumer electronics increasing by 3.48%. Notable stock performances include SK Hynix rising by 9.51% and Micron by 7.10% [3][4] - The report highlights the impact of the Christmas season on tech stocks, contributing to overall market gains [3] Industry Updates - New product launches are driving market excitement, including Samsung's first 2nm processor and Huawei's nova 15 series, which features advanced technology and performance improvements [4] - Major companies are enhancing their computational power collaborations, with significant projects like Oracle's data center approved in Michigan [5] Pricing Trends - The report notes a continuous upward trend in storage prices, with NAND flash wafer prices increasing by over 10% and SSD prices rising by 15% to 20% [6] - Expectations for price hikes in wafer production are also noted, with companies like SMIC and TSMC implementing price adjustments [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several beneficiaries from the current market conditions, including SMIC, Beijing Junzheng, and Huafeng Technology, among others [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 has experienced a nearly 18% increase in 2025 and an approximately 80% rise over the past three years, highlighting the attractiveness of investing in this index [1][2] Group 2: Company Highlights - **SoFi Technologies**: A digital bank with a rapid customer acquisition rate, achieving a 38% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2025. The stock has risen 79% this year, indicating strong potential for future growth [4][5] - **MercadoLibre**: The leading e-commerce platform in Latin America, with a 49% year-over-year sales increase (currency neutral) in Q3. The company is diversifying its offerings with fintech services, positioning itself for significant growth [7][8] - **On Holding**: A fast-growing activewear brand that competes with major players like Nike and Lululemon. It has high gross margins and a resilient consumer base, suggesting strong expansion potential [9][10] - **Lemonade**: An innovative insurance company leveraging AI and machine learning, with a stock increase of nearly 450% over the past three years. It aims for profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis by 2026 [13][14] - **Taiwan Semiconductor**: A key player in AI chip manufacturing, benefiting from increased demand as hyperscalers ramp up AI spending. The company is well-positioned for continued growth across various tech applications [15][16]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 昨日（27 日）晚间 23 时左右中国台湾发生有感地震，地震规模达 7.0 级，不仅中国台湾北部震感强 烈，南部也有明显震感。 中国台湾气象部门地震测报中心科长陈达毅表示，本次地震震中位于宜兰外海，与今年 8 月 27 日发 生的 6.1 级地震震中位置最为接近。从目前监测情况来看，未来一周不排除发生 5.5 至 6.0 级余震的 可能性。 加星标⭐️第一时间看推送，小号防走丢 求点赞 求分享 求推荐 ★ 替代EUV光刻，新方案公布！ ★ 半导体设备巨头，工资暴涨40% ★ 外媒：美国将提议禁止中国制造的汽车软件和硬件 中国台湾气象部门晚间通报，当日 23 时 05 分发生芮氏 7.0 级地震，震中位于宜兰县外海，震源深 度 72.8 公里。宜兰、新北、花莲、台北、基隆、桃园、新竹、台中、南投、苗栗、彰化、云林、嘉 义、台南等地区的最大震度达到 4 级。 （来源 ：钜亨网 ） *免责声明：本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体行业观察对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系半导体行业观察。 台积电就 ...