Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector is poised for significant growth, with predictions of AI data center spending increasing from approximately $500 billion to $1.4 trillion by 2030, primarily driven by demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) [2] Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is well-positioned to capitalize on the AI boom, being a leading manufacturer of both GPUs and ASICs, and maintaining strong relationships with top AI chip designers like Nvidia and Broadcom [3][4] Market Position - TSMC holds a near monopoly in advanced chip manufacturing, with competitors like Intel and Samsung struggling to produce advanced logic chips at scale. This dominance provides TSMC with strong pricing power, allowing for a four-year schedule of price hikes [6] Growth Projections - TSMC anticipates its AI revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the mid- to high-50% range until 2029. The company has significantly increased its capital expenditure budget for 2023 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, up from less than $41 billion in 2025, to meet rising demand [7] Valuation Metrics - TSMC's stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 based on 2026 estimates, and a forward price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7, indicating it is reasonably valued for long-term investment in the AI sector [8]

Core Insights - Nvidia has experienced significant changes in demand due to the rise of AI, particularly with the launch of ChatGPT, leading to a shift in its customer base from PC gamers to data centers that require high computing power [2][4] - The pricing of Nvidia's chips has surged, with the latest GB200 Blackwell Superchip priced at up to $70,000, resulting in operating margins increasing to 62% from pre-ChatGPT levels [3][5] - Analysts project Nvidia's profits could triple by 2028, potentially increasing its justified share value to around $250 [5] Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's stock has risen dramatically, but it is considered expensive with only a 32% upside to fair value from current levels [5] - The company has a history of volatility, having fallen at least 50% in 13 of the 26 years since going public [2] Competitors and Alternatives - Broadcom is recognized as a leader in custom AI accelerator chips, but its stock has also risen significantly, limiting future gains [7][8] - Marvell Technology is highlighted as a competitor with substantial upside potential, trading at a lower price-to-sales ratio compared to Broadcom, with projections of a 76% upside [9][10] Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is a key player in the semiconductor industry, producing advanced chips for major companies like Nvidia and Apple [14] - TSMC has a monopoly on 4-nanometer chip production, achieving high yields compared to competitors like Samsung [16][17] - TSMC's revenue is expected to grow in the mid-20% range annually, with AI revenues projected to increase by 50% annually [18] Government Investment and Future Trends - The U.S. government is heavily investing in semiconductor technology, with TSMC receiving significant grants and loans for domestic chip manufacturing [21] - There is a focus on six core sectors for future government funding, including semiconductors, as part of a broader strategy to maintain technological leadership [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The current AI boom represents a significant technological turning point, comparable to the introduction of the internet, but skepticism exists regarding current valuations in the market [1][2]. Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a crucial player in the AI supply chain, manufacturing chips for various tech companies that rely on its efficiency and scale [2][4]. - TSMC holds a virtual monopoly on advanced AI chip manufacturing, making it the most trusted partner for tech companies [4]. Financial Performance - TSMC achieved its best year ever in 2025, generating $122 billion in revenue, which reflects a nearly 36% year-over-year increase [7]. - The company has a market capitalization of $1.7 trillion, with a gross margin of 59.02% and a dividend yield of 0.93% [6]. Industry Context - The demand for AI-related revenue has positively impacted TSMC's earnings, but the company is positioned to thrive even if the AI boom slows down or turns out to be a bubble [6][9]. - Major companies such as Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and Broadcom depend on TSMC for their chip manufacturing needs, indicating a strong reliance on TSMC within the tech hardware sector [6][9].

文/定龙骑牛 徒步滚雪球 编审/王小鱼 （3）中国资产最佳对冲：A股更多反映"全球制造业周期"和"国内财政杠杆"，而纳指反映"全球科技创新周期"。两者驱动力来源完全不同。在配置模型 中，两者的相关性极低，是真正的有效多样化。 1.2 走势与展望： 当前美股市场机会与风险并存，整体风险较前期有所上升，但核心投资逻辑尚未被破坏。 以后美股相关的讨论，或加急的更新，都用这个账号发布！ 为方便复盘及大家伙儿分散投资风险，我会定期跟踪美股科技的估值情况。如无特别说明，本文使用PE-TTM（滚动市盈率）数据均来自iFind。 一、纳指100 1.1 配置必要性： 结合第一性原理看清资产收益的本质。纳指100的配置价值在于三个底层驱动力： （1）全要素生产率的收割机：经济增长的本质是劳动力、资本和生产率的提升。纳指100代表了当前人类社会全要素生产率（TFP）提升的最高水平。投 资纳指100，本质上是在做多"技术取代人力"和"算法驱动增长"的必然趋势。 （2）全球资本的"高质量回笼"：在全球不确定性增加的背景下，资金倾向于流向拥有最强自由现金流的企业。纳指100成分股多为垄断型科技巨头，它们 不仅赚钱多，还通过巨额股份回购 ...

昨晚，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋在台北「砖窑」宴请供应链伙伴，兆元宴 ( 台湾用语，兆相当于万亿 ) 正式开席前，现场就先拍下一 张大合照，镜头里是中国台湾 地区 甚至全球 AI供应链的关键决策者，可说是全台最有钱的一张照片。 除了黄仁勋坐在照片第一排正中央，黄仁勋右手边坐着台积电董事长魏哲家、联发科执行长蔡力行、华硕董事长施崇棠，左手边 则坐着广达董事长林百里、广达副董事长梁次震、纬创董事长林宪铭，鸿海董事长刘扬伟以及和硕董事长童子贤则站在第二排、 黄仁勋正后方。 全台 AI 产业链的核心人物一次框进同一个画面，从芯片、服务器、零组件到系统整合，市场也关注兆元宴可能会带动哪些公司 表现。 根据《 Yahoo股市》盘点20档去年参与兆元宴的上市公司到2026年1月30日，股价上涨最多的为台达电270%，欣兴166%、 宜鼎147%，权王台积电也多达111%，而20档平均上涨约34%。 照片中具体名单如下： 跟黄仁勋同坐第一排的，包括华硕（董事长施崇棠、联发科副董事长蔡力行、台积电董事长魏哲家、广达董事长林百里、副董事 长梁次震、纬创董事长林宪铭，业界戏称是礼让 70 岁或是头发已白德高望重的供应链大老优先入座。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the market and identifies three stocks—Alphabet, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing—as strong investment opportunities for the future [1][2]. Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet has regained its position as a leading player in the AI sector, with its Gemini generative AI model being one of the best available [3]. - The company possesses unique advantages, such as access to personal information, which allows Gemini to create tailored experiences for users, a feature that competitors cannot replicate [3][5]. - Alphabet's substantial resources enable it to sustain operations at a loss longer than smaller competitors, positioning it to dominate the market in the future [5][6]. Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft adopts a partnership approach in the AI landscape, holding a significant stake in OpenAI and providing access to multiple AI models through its Azure cloud platform [7]. - This neutrality in AI model selection has contributed to Azure's rapid growth compared to its competitors [7][9]. - Microsoft is viewed as a solid investment in the AI sector, with its strategy likely to yield gradual gains as AI adoption increases [9]. Group 3: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor is crucial for AI technology, as it manufactures chips that power major computing players like Nvidia, which only designs chips [10]. - Despite concerns about the longevity of AI computing capacity, the short lifespan of GPUs (typically one to three years) suggests ongoing demand for chips, ensuring a steady market for Taiwan Semiconductor [12]. - The company is still in the early stages of benefiting from AI growth, with many announced data centers not expected to become operational until several years later, making it a compelling long-term investment [13].

除了黄仁勋坐在照片第一排正中央，黄仁勋右手边坐着台积电董事长魏哲家、联发科执行长蔡力行、华硕董事长 施崇棠，左手边则坐着广达董事长林百里、广达副董事长梁次震、纬创董事长林宪铭，鸿海董事长刘扬伟以及和 硕董事长童子贤则站在第二排、黄仁勋正后方。 全台AI 产业链的核心人物一次框进同一个画面，从芯片、服务器、零组件到系统整合，市场也关注兆元宴可能会 带动哪些公司表现。 根据《Yahoo股市》盘点20档去年参与兆元宴的上市公司到2026年1月30日，股价上涨最多的为台达电270%，欣兴 166%、宜鼎147%，权王台积电也多达111%，而20档平均上涨约34%。 照片中具体名单如下： 跟黄仁勋同坐第一排的，包括华硕（董事长施崇棠、联发科副董事长蔡力行、台积电董事长魏哲家、广达董事长 林百里、副董事长梁次震、纬创董事长林宪铭，业界戏称是礼让70岁或是头发已白德高望重的供应链大老优先入 座。 来源：EETOP 昨晚，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在台北「砖窑」宴请供应链伙伴，兆元宴(台湾用语，兆相当于万亿)正式开席前，现场 就先拍下一张大合照，镜头里是台湾地区甚至全球AI供应链的关键决策者，可说是全台最有钱的一张照片。 第二排之后 ...

格隆汇2月1日｜1月31日晚间，英伟达CEO黄仁勋现身中国台湾台北市砖窑古早味怀旧餐厅，宴请了35 位与英伟达合作的供应链厂商高管，不过实际到场约有接近40位台企高管，有1位是大陆企业高管。 现场唯二女性，除了纬颖董事长洪丽宁外，另一位是显卡大厂同德股份有限公司CEO刘盈君，她上次也 有受邀出席。 此次宴会合影环节，第一排特地安排椅子座位，跟黄仁勋同坐第一排的包括华硕董事长施崇棠、联发科 副董事长蔡力行、台积电董事长魏哲家、广达董事长林百里及副董事长梁次震、纬创董事长林宪铭，业 界戏称是礼让70岁或是头发已白德高望重的供应链大佬优先入座。 第二排之后依序为英业达董事长叶力诚、矽品董事长蔡祺文、鸿海董事长刘扬伟、和硕董事长童子贤、 纬创总经理林建勋、技嘉总经理林英宇及李宜泰、纬颖董事长洪丽宁、奇鋐董事长沈庆行、广达资深副 总杨麒令、微星董事长徐祥、仁宝董事长陈瑞聪、 英业达总经理蔡枝安、工业富联董事长郑孟弘、光 宝总经理邱森彬、台达电董事长郑平、和硕共同执行长郑光志与邓国彦。京元电子总经理张高薰、华擎 总经理许隆伦、永擎总经理沙韦旭、宏碁董事长陈俊圣、华硕共同执行长许先越及胡书宾、研华总经理 张家豪、鸿佰科技董 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋昨晚宴请供应链伙伴高层，「兆元宴」再度登场。黄仁勋表示，台积电今年 必须要非常努力工作，因为英伟达需要很多晶圆，他预期「未来十年台积电的产能可能会成长超过百 分之百，是非常显著的规模扩张，而光是为英伟达的需求就得翻倍」。 黄仁勋再度选在台北砖窑古早味怀旧餐厅举行「兆元宴」，和供应链伙伴餐叙，出席的包括台积电董 事长魏哲家、联发科首席执行官蔡力行、广达董事长林百里、英业达董事长叶力诚、纬创董事长林宪 铭、鸿海董事长刘扬伟、宏碁董事长陈俊圣、矽品董事长蔡祺文、和硕董事长童子贤、共同首席执行 官郑光志及邓国彦、华硕董事长施崇棠、共同首席执行官胡书宾及许先越、纬颖董事长洪丽寗、台达 电董事长郑平、仁宝董事长陈瑞聪以及云达总经理杨麒令等人。餐叙结束后黄仁勋亲自送魏哲家离 开，显见对台积电的重视程度。 黄仁勋说，台积电今年要非常努力工作，因为英伟达需要很多晶圆和CoWoS，他也说，台积电做得 非常好。英伟达已经全面投产Blackwell、Vera Rubin芯片，而Vera Rubin包含六款不同的芯片，每 款都是世界上最先进的芯片。黄仁勋强调，今年英 ...

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has significantly raised its long-term outlook due to strong performance and demand in the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by artificial intelligence (AI) growth [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - TSMC's stock price has increased by 72% since the beginning of 2025, bolstered by impressive fourth-quarter earnings results [2]. - The company holds a dominant 72% market share in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, benefiting from high demand from major clients like Nvidia and Broadcom [3]. - TSMC's technology leadership is recognized as unmatched, allowing it to attract significant contracts and invest in further capacity and R&D [3]. Group 2: Financial Outlook - Management has projected capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, representing a 32% increase at the midpoint [6]. - The five-year compound annual growth rate outlook has been raised from 20% to 25%, indicating continued annual growth of approximately 22.4% through the end of the decade [7]. - TSMC's gross margin stands at 59.02%, and the company is expected to maintain high pricing power, leading to improved operating margins and faster earnings growth [7]. Group 3: Market Position - TSMC's stock is currently trading at less than 24 times forward earnings expectations, making it attractive compared to competitors like Broadcom and Nvidia, which trade at 41 and 32 times earnings, respectively [8]. - Despite a strong performance in 2025, TSMC is not expected to experience a significant slowdown in 2026, indicating potential for further stock price appreciation [8].