证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 19 日 行业及产业 电子 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《电子行业周报：NVIDIA 宣布 Rubin 平台全 面量产》2026-01-12 《电子行业跟踪报告：2026 年 Neuralink 将对 脑机接口设备进行大规模生产》2026-01-12 《人工智能月度跟踪：CES 2026 AI 前沿信息 汇总》2026-01-09 《电子行业周报：国产 DRAM 存储龙头 IPO 成 功受理》2026-01-06 《爱建电子深度报告：卫星通信加速进入发展 元年》2026-01-05 许亮 S0820525010002 0755-83562506 xuliang@ajzq.com 朱俊宇 S0820125040021 021-32229888-25520 zhujunyu@ajzq.com 台积电 25Q4 单季度业绩创历史新高 ——电子行业周报（2026/1/12-1/18） 本周（2026/1/12-1/18）SW 电子行业指数（+3.77%），涨跌幅排名 2/ ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's expansion into the U.S. marks a significant shift in its strategy, driven by the need to be closer to major clients like Nvidia and Apple, as well as to mitigate geopolitical risks associated with potential conflicts involving Taiwan [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Expansion Plans - TSMC plans to invest over $250 billion in the U.S., with a significant portion allocated for building multiple chip manufacturing plants in Arizona, expanding its presence to approximately 12 factories in the state [1]. - The company has committed $165 billion for six logic chip factories and two packaging chip factories, which are essential for advanced computing [1]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for this year could reach up to $56 billion, indicating a robust investment strategy [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Considerations - The agreement with the Trump administration includes a commitment from Taiwan to invest over $250 billion in the U.S., while the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15% [1]. - TSMC's expansion is seen as a response to the geopolitical landscape, particularly the advancements in China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities [2][4]. - The concept of the "Silicon Shield," which posits that Taiwan's semiconductor industry is crucial to global economic stability, is being reevaluated as TSMC diversifies its manufacturing locations [2][9]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - TSMC faces challenges in Arizona, including water scarcity and a shortage of skilled labor, which could impact its expansion efforts [9]. - Analysts suggest that a significant portion of TSMC's advanced manufacturing may remain in Taiwan for the next decade, despite the ongoing expansion in the U.S. [9][10]. - The timeline for establishing reliable manufacturing capabilities outside Taiwan is projected to be around 2030 to 2035, with full resilience against major disruptions potentially taking until mid-century [10].

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 19 日 行业及产业 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《电子行业周报：NVIDIA 宣布 Rubin 平台全 面量产》2026-01-12 电子 《电子行业跟踪报告：2026 年 Neuralink 将对 脑机接口设备进行大规模生产》2026-01-12 《人工智能月度跟踪：CES 2026 AI 前沿信息 汇总》2026-01-09 《电子行业周报：国产 DRAM 存储龙头 IPO 成 功受理》2026-01-06 《爱建电子深度报告：卫星通信加速进入发展 元年》2026-01-05 许亮 S0820525010002 0755-83562506 xuliang@ajzq.com 朱俊宇 S0820125040021 021-32229888-25520 zhujunyu@ajzq.com 台积电 25Q4 单季度业绩创历史新高 ——电子行业周报（2026/1/12-1/18） 本周（2026/1/12-1/18）SW 电子行业指数（+3.77%），涨跌幅排名 2/ ...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) is one of the best strong buy growth stocks to buy according to hedge funds. TD Cowen lifted the price target on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) to $370 from $325 on December 16 and maintained a Hold rating, telling investors that it updated its model after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results supported by manufacturing excellence. NVIDIA Invests $2 Billion in Synopsys as Part of New Multiyea ...

电子行业周报 台积电激进扩产彰显信心，存储向好封测涨价 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：电子行业周期复苏不及预期；行业竞争加剧；产品研发不及预期。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 688072.SH | 拓荆科技 | 385.68 | 3.22 | 4.70 | 6.28 | 120 | 82 | 61 | 推荐 | | 688012.SH | 中微公司 | 377.14 | 3.31 | 4.92 | 6.72 | 114 | 77 | 56 | 推荐 | | 688981.SH | 中芯国际 | 126.99 | 0.67 | 0.84 | 1.05 | 190 | 151 | 121 | 推荐 | | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测; | | | ...

中信证券给予台积电"买入"评级，目标价435美元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to significantly increase its capital expenditure (Capex) to approximately $52-56 billion in 2026, up from $40.9 billion in 2025, reflecting strong demand in the computing and communication chip sectors [7][35]. - The launch of the Qianwen App, which integrates with Alibaba's ecosystem, is set to accelerate AI application deployment, potentially driving high growth in inference computing demand [7][40]. - The report highlights a robust long-term demand for computing power, with a focus on core segments of the computing industry, including optical modules, copper interconnects, switches, and AI applications [3][57]. Summary by Sections Industry Highlights - NVIDIA launched the next-generation AI computing platform, Rubin, which includes six new chips designed to enhance AI performance and efficiency [12]. - TSMC's expansion plans and partnerships with major tech companies like Apple and Google are expected to bolster the AI chip market [35][37]. - The domestic AI industry is entering a new phase of capitalized development, with several companies going public and increasing their market presence [39]. Market Review - The communication sector saw an overall increase, with the index rising by 3.1% over the past two weeks, ranking 14th among 31 sectors [2][48]. - The military communication, 5G, and industrial internet segments led the gains, with increases of 35.2%, 21.1%, and 21.0% respectively [2][52]. - Individual stock performance within the communication sector showed 110 stocks rising and 19 falling, with notable gains from companies like Shijia Technology and Xinke Mobile [2][56]. Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key segments of the computing power industry, including optical modules, copper interconnects, switches, temperature control equipment, and AI applications [3][57].

科创新材料ETF汇添富(589180)标的指数热门成分股多数回调：受负面舆情影响，容百科技跌超10%，安集科技跌超2%，沪硅产 业、天岳先进、厦钨新能跌超1%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 估算权重 ▼ | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 688126 | 沪硅产业 | 8.68% | -1.43% | 11.97亿 | | 2 | 688122 | 西部超合 | 8.23% | 0.87% | 19.68 Z | | 3 | 688019 | 安集科技 | 7.22% | -2.84% | 10.96亿 | | 4 | 688234 | 天岳先讲 | 4.83% | -1.09% | 23.81亿 | | ਦ | ୧୫୫୦୧୮ | 凯塞生物 | 4.11% | -0.35% | 3.88亿 | | 6 | 688778 | 厦钨新能 | 3.85% | -1.47% | 5.53亿 | | 7 | 688005 | 容自科技 | 3.78% | -10.58% | 26.55亿 | | 8 | 688548 | 广钢气体 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5][40]. Core Insights - TSMC plans to significantly increase its capital expenditure to meet the strong demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, with a projected investment of up to $56 billion by 2026, a 36.9% increase from the previous year [4][23]. - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing rapid domestic production acceleration, with major companies benefiting from industry dividends. Notable mentions include Tongcheng New Materials and Huate Gas, which are making strides in import substitution [4][23]. - The new materials industry is expected to grow rapidly due to ongoing manufacturing upgrades and increasing demand for high-standard, high-performance materials [4][23]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 5779.39 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.98%. The semiconductor materials index rose by 8.12%, while other sub-indices showed modest gains [3][8]. - The top gainers for the week included Aladdin (20.24%), Anji Technology (12.69%), and Shanghai Xinyang (12.29%), while the largest decliners were Pulit (-17.28%) and Double Star New Materials (-4.22%) [20][21]. Recent Industry Highlights - TSMC's capital expenditure is part of its largest overseas capacity expansion plan, having invested over $180 billion since 2020 [4][23]. - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on certain imported semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which may impact key products from companies like NVIDIA and AMD [23][24]. - Jinfa Technology has invested in a core supplier for Tesla's robots, which is preparing for an IPO, highlighting the growing importance of high-performance engineering plastics in robotics [4][24].

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