Earnings season kicks into gear this week with banks and tech stocks taking center stage. This week we have Bank of America (BAC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Delta Airlines (DAL) all reporting in what shapes as a busy and pivotal week for stocks. Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the market is unsure about the outcome of the report. Speculators and hedgers create hug ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|信息技术|半导体与半导体生产设备 证券研究报告 半导体与半导体生产设 2026 年 01 月 12 日 备行业周报、月报 [Table_Title] 美国政府放松 H200 对华出口，美光在纽约 州兴建多座晶圆厂 ——行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 本周（2026.1.5-2026.1.11）市场回顾 1）海外 AI芯片指数本周下跌 1.5%，MPS 和台积电上涨 2.4%和 1.3%， AMD 和 Marvell 下跌 9.1%和 6.9%。2）国内 AI 芯片指数本周上涨 7.8%。寒武纪、澜起科技、翱捷科技、兆易创新、长电科技和通富微 电涨幅均在 10%以上，海光信息、瑞芯微和恒玄科技涨幅在 9.9%、 5.1%和 3.8%。3）英伟达映射指数本周下跌 0.3%，麦格米特上涨 12%， 神宇股份、沃尔核材和兆龙互连涨幅在 5%以上，胜宏科技、景旺电 子、太辰光和江海股份涨幅较小。长芯博创、英维克、沪电股份跌幅 超 4%。4）服务器 ODM 指数本周下跌 3.0%，Gigabyte 和 Wiwynn 跌幅超 5%，Quanta、超微电脑、鸿海精密和 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is focusing on advanced packaging as a key growth area, with plans to establish a "General Factory Manager" position to oversee all facilities, likely filled by Chen Cheng-hsien, who has extensive experience in the company [1][2]. Group 1: Advanced Packaging Business - TSMC's advanced packaging business, previously contributing about 6-7% of revenue, is expected to grow significantly due to surging AI demand, particularly for CoWoS technology, which has been in development since 2009 [1][3]. - The gross margin for TSMC's advanced packaging business has reached approximately 80%, contributing significantly to the company's overall profitability [1]. - TSMC is expanding its advanced packaging capabilities with new facilities in Taiwan and Arizona, including two new advanced packaging plants expected to be operational by the end of 2028 [3][4]. Group 2: Leadership Changes - Recent retirements of key executives, including Lin Jin-kun and Yu Zhen-hua, have led to increased attention on TSMC's succession planning and leadership transitions [2]. - Chen Cheng-hsien is anticipated to be promoted to the newly created "General Factory Manager" role, overseeing multiple advanced packaging facilities [2][3]. - TSMC is expected to announce further leadership changes by late January 2026, reflecting ongoing organizational adjustments [2]. Group 3: Technological Developments - TSMC is advancing its CoWoS technology, with new variants like CoWoS-S, CoWoS-R, and CoWoS-L being developed to meet high-performance computing (HPC) needs [4]. - The company plans to introduce a new CoWoS-L technology with a 5.5x larger mask size to address the high demand for this advanced packaging solution [4]. - TSMC is also shifting focus to CoPoS technology, integrating CoWoS with fan-out panel-level packaging (FOPLP), with plans to establish a CoPoS pilot line by 2026 [5].

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM) continues to benefit from surging demand for advanced chips, as investors and analysts look ahead to another strong earnings report.Record Quarter In SightTaiwan Semiconductor is poised to deliver a record fourth quarter as demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to fuel growth.Analysts expect the contract chipmaker to report a 27% jump in fourth-quarter net profit to 475.2 billion New Taiwanese dollars ($15.02 billion) for the three mont ...

中芯国际创始人张汝京曾说，他在自己离开台积电时，台积电董事长告诉他，你敢去大陆，那在台积电 的这么多股票就不能拿了！ 2025 年，满头华发的张汝京现身讲台，面对台下朝气蓬勃的年轻面庞，他身形瘦削却身姿挺拔，尽显 风骨。 外界给这位半导体老兵算过一笔账，怎么算，他这辈子都是在做"亏本买卖"。可在他自己心里的那个账 本上，算盘珠子拨弄的逻辑，却与世俗的精明截然不同。 这第一笔"大额亏损"，记在世纪之交。 那时候，他在德州仪器风头无两，在台积电也是身居要位。动了北上创业的念头后，老东家给他出了一 道残酷的选择题：要去大陆可以，但属于你的天价股票和期权，必须全部清零。 在当时，那是一笔换算下来几辈子都花不完的巨款。 换做常人，大概率要犹豫，甚至退缩。但张汝京几乎没有停顿，大手一挥就划掉了这笔泼天富贵，哪怕 那是他半辈子的积蓄。 对他来说，父亲张锡纶弥留之际那句 "何时回祖国建厂" 的期盼，以及母亲想在故土安度晚年的心愿， 远比任何金钱财富都更有分量。 既然放弃了荣华富贵，前方等待他的本该是鲜花掌声吧？并没有。 他在上海浦东落地时，迎接他的是一片还要跟蚊虫作战的荒滩，以及一道名为《瓦森纳协定》的严密铁 幕。 手里攥着 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to provide strong guidance for Q1 2026 and the full year during its Q4 2025 earnings announcement, with a target price of 2100 TWD reflecting a 25% upside from the recent closing price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Guidance - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to reach 1.046 trillion TWD, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [1] - For the full year 2025, TSMC's revenue is expected to be 335 billion TWD, showing a year-on-year growth of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.5% [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 is anticipated to exceed the company's guidance of 59%-61%, with Morgan Stanley predicting a gross margin of 62% [1] Group 2: Q1 2026 Expectations - For Q1 2026, TSMC is expected to provide guidance for revenue growth that is flat, while Morgan Stanley anticipates a 2% increase in USD terms [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2026 is projected to be between 61%-63%, with Morgan Stanley's expectation set at 63% [3] Group 3: Long-term Projections - For the full year 2026, TSMC is expected to provide guidance for revenue growth in the mid-20% range, while Morgan Stanley forecasts a 30% increase in USD terms [3] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $46 billion and $50 billion, with Morgan Stanley estimating $48 billion [2] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for data center AI revenue from 2024 to 2029 is expected to be in the mid-50% range, with Morgan Stanley's estimate at 57% [2][3]

智通财经APP获悉，得益于对人工智能(AI)基础设施似乎永无止境的需求，全球最大AI芯片制造商台积 电(TSM.US)2025年第四季度净利润预计将激增27%、创下历史新高。根据LSEG SmartEstimate对19位 分析师的调查，台积电预计在截至2025年12月31日的三个月里将实现净利润4752亿新台币(约合150.2亿 美元)。只要公布的实际净利润数据高于4523亿新台币，都将标志着创下季度净利润的最高纪录，并实 现连续第八个季度的利润增长。 台积电在上周公布了好于市场预期的2025年第四季度营收数据——跃升约20%至1.05万亿新台币(约合 331亿美元)，好于市场预期的1.02万亿新台币。市场研究公司IDC的高级研究经理Galen Zeng表示，台积 电2025年第四季度营收的增长得益于台积电3纳米制程产能的充分利用，这由使用苹果A19芯片的iPhone 17系列以及持续的强劲AI需求所推动。 此外，目前尚不清楚美国总统特朗普的关税政策将对台积电产生多大影响。中国台湾地区对美国的出口 商品面临20%的关税，但芯片除外。 自ChatGPT引发AI浪潮以来，台积电一直是最大受益者之一，这得益于其在 ...

Core Insights - Samsung's foundry business is a crucial foundation for its overall operations, having started in 2005 with minimal revenue compared to TSMC, but achieved significant milestones by adopting advanced technologies [1][2] - Despite initial successes, Samsung faced setbacks due to aggressive strategies that led to quality issues and loss of trust among fabless clients, resulting in a decline in market share [2][3] - The company is now focusing on a strategic overhaul, emphasizing stability and yield improvement in its 2nm process technology, which is seen as a critical step for recovery [4][5] 2nm Process Development - Samsung is betting all resources on the 2nm process starting in 2024, shifting its strategy to prioritize stability and yield improvement over aggressive market positioning [4] - The new 2nm process utilizes an upgraded MBCFET architecture, which significantly enhances transistor performance and reduces power consumption compared to traditional FinFET technology [4][5] - Initial yield rates for the 2nm process were low but have improved significantly, reaching 50%-60% by 2025, which is essential for commercial viability [6] Capacity Expansion - Samsung plans to establish a 2nm production line in its Hwaseong S3 factory, aiming for a monthly output of 7,000 wafers by Q1 2025, with further expansions planned in the U.S. [7] - The company is developing multiple versions of the 2nm process to cater to different market needs, including high-performance computing and automotive electronics [7] Strategic Shift to Physical AI - Samsung is strategically pivoting towards the emerging physical AI market, where it sees greater opportunities compared to the highly competitive data center AI segment dominated by TSMC [8][9] - The company aims to leverage its flexible pricing and supply strategies to attract clients in the cost-sensitive physical AI sector, particularly in automotive applications [9][10] Client Ecosystem Diversification - Samsung is restructuring its client base to include a wider range of customers, from large tech giants to small fabless companies, to adapt to the changing AI semiconductor market [11][12] - The company has successfully secured automotive semiconductor orders, which not only boost revenue but also validate its capabilities in the physical AI domain [10][13] Competitive Differentiation - Samsung is focusing on differentiated strategies to compete with TSMC, particularly in mature process markets and advanced packaging technologies [15][16] - The company's vertical integration allows it to offer comprehensive solutions that reduce total cost of ownership (TCO) for clients, enhancing its competitive edge in emerging markets [17][18] Conclusion - Samsung's transformation story reflects its efforts to adapt to technological setbacks and market dynamics, with recent successes in automotive semiconductors and a diversified client ecosystem indicating progress [18]

全球最大的先进人工智能芯片制造商台积电预计第四季度净利润将增长 27%，创下历史新高，原因是 对人工智能基础设施的需求似乎难以满足。根据LSEG SmartEstimate从19位分析师那里汇编的数据，全 球最大的合约芯片制造商、英伟达和苹果的主要供应商台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司在截至12月31日 的三个月里预计将实现净利润4，752亿（150.2亿美元）。台积电是亚洲最有价值的上市公司，市值约 1.38万亿美元，是韩国竞争对手三星电子的两倍多。该公司定于周四发布财报，并将在 GMT 上午 6： 00 举行的财报电话会议上提供第一季度和全年业绩指引。 责任编辑：王永生 全球最大的先进人工智能芯片制造商台积电预计第四季度净利润将增长 27%，创下历史新高，原因是 对人工智能基础设施的需求似乎难以满足。根据LSEG SmartEstimate从19位分析师那里汇编的数据，全 球最大的合约芯片制造商、英伟达和苹果的主要供应商台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司在截至12月31日 的三个月里预计将实现净利润4，752亿（150.2亿美元）。台积电是亚洲最有价值的上市公司，市值约 1.38万亿美元，是韩国竞争对手三星电子的两 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is projected to achieve a 27% increase in fourth-quarter net profit, reaching a record high, driven by strong demand for AI chips [1] Company Summary - TSMC is recognized as the world's largest manufacturer of advanced artificial intelligence chips [1] - The anticipated growth in net profit reflects the company's ability to capitalize on the growing market for AI technology [1]