半导体行业 超配（维持） AI 仍为创新主线，算力、存力、设备、先进封装等 多环节受益 投 资 策 略 资料来源：Wind，东莞证券研究所 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 2025 年 11 月 24 日 S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 推荐 分析师：刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： 投资要点： 板块业绩及走势：受益AI快速演进重塑半导体需求结构，半导体产 业在2025年实现新一轮增长，2025年前三季度营收、净利润同比提 高。2025年以来，申万半导体行业指数估值快速上行，年内走势跑 赢大盘，且各细分板块均录得正向涨幅。 分析师：陈伟光 SAC 执业证书编号： 算力：大模型加速落地推高算力规模，国产算力有望突破。近年人 工智能成为各国逐力焦点，境外对 ...

Core Insights - The recent retirement of TSMC's senior vice president, Luo Wei-ren, and his subsequent move to Intel has raised concerns regarding the potential transfer of confidential documents related to advanced semiconductor processes [2] - Intel's CEO, Pat Gelsinger, publicly denied allegations that Luo brought confidential files with him, asserting that the company respects intellectual property rights [2] - Luo's extensive experience in both TSMC and Intel positions him as a valuable asset for Intel, particularly in managing wafer production and enhancing operational efficiency [3] Group 1 - Luo Wei-ren retired from TSMC in July 2023 and joined Intel as a vice president of R&D, amid rumors of him carrying over 20 boxes of confidential documents related to TSMC's advanced processes [2] - Intel aims to leverage Luo's expertise to improve collaboration with U.S. clients at TSMC's Arizona facility, with expected partnerships including Microsoft and Tesla, and potentially Nvidia and Qualcomm in the future [3] - Luo's career at TSMC included significant advancements in semiconductor technology, leading to over 15,000 patents and establishing TSMC's leadership in 2nm and 1.4nm process technologies [3] Group 2 - This incident is not the first time TSMC has faced allegations related to trade secrets, as the company previously reported cases of employees involved in stealing confidential information about its 2nm chip technology [4] - The ongoing scrutiny surrounding Luo's transition to Intel is heightened by TSMC's recent legal challenges regarding intellectual property theft [4]

特别声明：以上文章内容仅代表作者本人观点，不代表新浪网观点或立场。如有关于作品内容、版权或其它问 题请于作品发表后的30日内与新浪网联系。 台积电董事：华为不可能追上我们，蔡正元：完全能追上 台积电董事：华为不可能追上我们，蔡正 元：完全能追上 台积电董事：华为不可能追上我们，蔡正元：完全能追上#一个视频搬运工[超话]# ...

Core Insights - The global wafer foundry market is expected to reach $199.4 billion in revenue by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 25% driven by strong AI demand [1] - In 2026, the market size is projected to grow by an additional 17%, surpassing $230 billion, supported by ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [1] - From 2025 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the global wafer foundry market is anticipated to be 14.3%, although risks related to AI investment bubbles and geopolitical tensions remain significant [1] Industry Analysis - AI has become the core driving force for the semiconductor industry amid global economic instability and weak consumer electronics demand [1] - Cloud service providers (CSPs) are expanding AI computing power, which is increasing the demand for AI accelerators and self-developed AI ASICs, thereby driving mid-term growth in the wafer foundry industry [1] - By 2030, industry revenue is expected to double compared to 2025 [1] Advanced Process Competition - In the advanced process competition, TSMC remains the main player in global capacity expansion, with plans to add over 300,000 12-inch wafers per month in the next five years [1] - Samsung Electronics and Intel are expected to have relatively limited capacity increases, allowing TSMC to maintain its competitive advantage until 2030 [1] Mature Process Developments - In the mature process segment, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency policies are expected to lead to an increase of approximately 350,000 12-inch wafers per month from Chinese foundries over the next five years, significantly reshaping the global supply landscape [2] - Despite benefiting from AI opportunities, the wafer foundry industry faces uncertainties due to the long payback period for AI infrastructure investments and geopolitical risks stemming from the US-China tech war [2]

Core Insights - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, reflecting a 62% year-on-year increase [2] - The company is heavily reliant on TSMC for its advanced chips, which poses significant geopolitical risks [5][8] Company Dependency - Nvidia's valuation reached $4.3 trillion, with its key products (H100, H200, Blackwell) dependent on TSMC's facilities in Taiwan [3] - Over 90% of the world's advanced chips are produced in Taiwan, making Nvidia's supply chain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions [4][5] Geopolitical Risks - Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have escalated, with increased military exercises and diplomatic pressure in 2025 [8] - A limited blockade by China could halt TSMC exports, disrupting over 90% of leading-edge chip production globally [8][9] Supply Chain Vulnerability - Nvidia sources 100% of its top-tier GPUs from TSMC, with no alternative sources for advanced production until at least 2027 [7] - The sophisticated packaging required for Nvidia's GPUs is also concentrated in Taiwan, further increasing dependency [7] Market Impact - A disruption lasting six months could halve Nvidia's projected revenue of $300 billion, leading to a $75 billion decrease in earnings [14] - Nvidia shares currently trade at around 43x forward earnings, which could compress significantly in the event of supply chain disruptions [11] Potential Beneficiaries - Companies like Intel and Samsung may benefit from a global re-shoring trend, as every viable fab becomes crucial [15] - ASML and Applied Materials, key suppliers in chip fabrication, will also gain regardless of location due to increased demand for fabrication tools [15]

中美博弈之中，有不少科技企业曾面临"二选一"的难题，但大部分的科技巨头在面对美高压之下，都无奈选择了美芯阵营，弃中选美。虽然能够理解，但中 国也不会原谅！比如三星、台积电。 先说台积电，在美投资建立了第一座晶圆厂后，美国显然不知足，还不断施压要求台积电加码，从最初的投资140亿美元，逐渐涨到了650亿美元，后来还追 加了1000亿美元，总投资金额已经达到了1650亿美元。 美国一封通知书，就要求台积电、三星要将其核心技术、资料等统统上交，甚至还要求台积电接手英特尔的烂摊子。而且此前承诺的补贴和扶持，也根本是 一场空，大部分的补贴都被英特尔拿走，台积电和三星只剩下了一点汤渣，这场看似热情的"邀请"，最终目的是什么？都很清晰了吧。 再来说三星，在美得克萨斯州建厂预计投资是170亿美元，但也在美的不断施压之下，后来又加码了几百亿美元。除了给钱之外，设备、人才、技术等也都 在不知不觉中搬运到了美本土。等到这两大芯片巨头反应过来的时候，一切都晚了， 在看清楚现实后，台积电、三星就动了要回归中国市场的念头，有消息称，台积电扩建了南京的厂房，三星也打算重返中国市场。但实话实说，别说中国不 会原谅，就算让它们回归，中国科技企 ...

Accessible version Equity Strategy - Asia Pacific (H/A) Asia AI tech playbook: subsector mapping and battleground opportunities Equity Strategy Asia AI tech: USD6tn market cap across >330 stocks Following our APAC AI strategy report on Sep 2nd (link), which outlined the AI ecosystem in the region, we collaborated with our fundamental analysts to identify 330+ APAC stocks across 22 subsectors in the AI technology layer, with an aggregate market cap of nearly USD6tn. While some subsectors have limited presenc ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来 源 ： 内容来自工商时报 。 晶圆代工龙头台积电再添国际级荣耀。董事长暨总裁魏哲家与前董事长刘德音上周共同获颁美国半导 体产业协会（SIA）年度最高荣誉"罗伯特‧诺伊斯奖"（Robert N. Noyce Award）。在AI算力推升先 进制程需求急速攀升之际，魏哲家在典礼谈话中罕见直言先进制程"不够、不够、还是不够"，显示台 积电在全球供应链中的关键地位正持续攀升。 颁奖典礼于美西时间20日在美国加州圣荷西举行，现场聚集全球半导体与AI产业重量级人士。今年 典礼由超微（AMD）董事长暨执行长苏姿丰亲自颁奖，三人同台的画面被视为象征AI芯片供应链核 心力量的最佳缩影。这是台积电继2008年由创办人张忠谋获奖后，再度由前后任领导者同时获得最高 荣誉。 台积电指出，此奖项代表全球对公司长期推动先进制程、先进封装与制造生态系统贡献的高度肯定。 从7纳米、5纳米、3纳米到即将量产的2纳米，台积电在过去十余年间跨越多个技术节点，并在美国、 日本、欧洲等地加速建厂，其全球制造布局已成为AI时代的基础建设。 在致词时，魏哲家与刘德音均回顾双方共事近三十年的历程，并强调这份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of tech stocks, suggesting that despite concerns of a market bubble, long-term investment in stable tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is advisable due to their strong fundamentals and growth potential [1][2][3]. Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet has recovered significantly, with stock gains exceeding 50% this year and currently only 3% below its all-time high [4][7]. - Legal challenges earlier in the year regarding unfair practices have been resolved, allowing Alphabet to continue operations without major disruptions [5][8]. - In Q3, Alphabet generated $102.34 billion in revenue, with advertising revenue up 12.6% and Google Cloud revenue increasing by 33.5% to $15.15 billion [8]. Group 2: Amazon - Amazon operates in both retail and cloud computing, with Q3 revenue reaching $180.16 billion, a 13.4% increase year-over-year [9][10]. - The e-commerce division generated $147.16 billion in sales, up 12%, while Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue was $33 billion, reflecting a 20% increase and a profit margin of 34.6% [11][12]. - The low profit margin of 4.1% in e-commerce highlights the importance of AWS as a significant profit center for Amazon [11]. Group 3: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is the largest semiconductor chip fabricator, crucial for producing high-performance chips for AI and large language models [13][14]. - TSMC generates 60% of its revenue from 3nm and 5nm chips, which are essential for advanced chip manufacturing [14]. - The company is investing $165 billion in U.S. production facilities, with new foundries in Arizona already producing Nvidia's Blackwell chips [16]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The article suggests that AI will continue to grow, and even in the event of market corrections, historical trends indicate a quick recovery [17]. - Alphabet, Amazon, and Taiwan Semiconductor are positioned well to support the infrastructure needed for future AI developments, making them strong candidates for long-term investment [18].

Core Insights - Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher, founded a hedge fund named Situational Awareness in 2024, focusing on artificial general intelligence (AGI) trends [3][7][20] - The fund's investment strategy has raised eyebrows, particularly its short positions on major AI companies like Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom, despite Aschenbrenner's previous bullish stance on AI [4][6][8][11] Investment Strategy - Situational Awareness maintained a significant long position in Intel, accounting for 16.41% of the portfolio, while simultaneously shorting Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom [12][10] - The fund's short positions included put options on Nvidia (6.95% of the portfolio), Broadcom (1.77%), and TSMC (1.76%), indicating a strategic shift in Aschenbrenner's outlook on these companies [10][11] Market Context - The hedge fund's moves come amid uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the AI boom, with investors closely monitoring major technology companies [5] - Aschenbrenner's predictions suggest a rapid advancement towards AGI by 2027, with significant growth in AI training clusters expected, which could impact the semiconductor industry [7][9] Company-Specific Insights - Aschenbrenner's shift from a bullish to a bearish position on Broadcom occurred within a short timeframe, indicating a potential reevaluation of the company's prospects [11] - The decision to maintain a long position in Intel may be influenced by the recent leadership change with Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, as well as expectations surrounding Intel's new 18A node technology [13][14] Future Outlook - The hedge fund's contrarian bets and Aschenbrenner's status as an AGI thought leader suggest that Situational Awareness will be a fund to watch for investors interested in AI trends [16]