Core Insights - UBS's high-net-worth clients are increasingly withdrawing from dollar assets and shifting towards gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese assets [1] - The tension in US-China trade relations is prompting investors to diversify their previously "US-centric" asset allocations [1] - There is a notable increase in investments in alternative assets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies as volatility is expected to persist [1]

国际投行如何看待中美关税变化？这对中国、美国的经济和货币、财政政策又有什么影响？ 中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，此次会谈的举行是中美经贸关系的一个积极动向，为后续沟通与谈 判奠定了基础。全球股市大涨，美股已经回到了技术性牛市区间，纳斯达克指数从4月低点到现在的涨 幅已达27%，而恒生科技股指数也在12日大涨5%。 国际投行如何看待中美关税变化？这对中国、美国的经济和货币、财政政策又有什么影响？ 对此，第一财经整理了高盛、摩根士丹利、瑞银、澳新等国际投行的最新观点，以及部分投行交易台交 易员关注到的一线交易变化。 摩根士丹利：比市场预期更快、幅度更深 摩根士丹利方面发给第一财经的邮件显示，该机构认为，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展的速度比市 场预期更快，程度也更深。 该机构认为，从对抗转向有序谈判的初步迹象显现，即双方同意建立一个常设磋商机制，该机制由中国 国务院副总理何立峰、美国财政部长贝森特以及美国贸易代表格里尔牵头。 就关税变化对宏观经济的影响而言，摩根士丹利认为中国GDP或有超出此前该机构预测的可能性。关税 暂停让双方从近乎双边贸易暂停的局面中得到了缓解。虽然关税水平仍较高，但暂停期可能会促使货物 提 ...

Group 1 - After the US-China tariff agreement, multiple financial institutions have raised their economic forecasts for China, with a significant reduction in tariffs impacting trade dynamics [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its GDP forecast for China, predicting an acceleration in exports due to lower tariffs, with expectations for Q2 GDP to exceed previous estimates [1] - JPMorgan has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025, increasing the expected growth rate for Q2 to Q4 of 2025 to 3% [2][3] Group 2 - Optimism regarding growth prospects is improving the outlook for the Chinese stock market, with Nomura upgrading Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight" [4] - Citigroup has raised its year-end target for the Hang Seng Index by 2% to 25,000 points, anticipating it will reach 26,000 by mid-2026 [4] - Some experts caution against excessive optimism, noting that the Chinese stock market's performance still heavily relies on domestic fundamentals [4]

金十整理：机构预期今晚20:30公布的美国4月未季调CPI年率（前值：+2.4%） 法巴银行：+2.3%；巴克莱银行：+2.3%；美国银行：+2.3%；凯投宏观：+2.3%； 花旗银行：+2.3%；摩根士丹利：+2.3%；加皇银行：+2.3%；三井住友：+2.3%； 道明证券：+2.3%；富国银行：+2.3%；劳埃德银行：+2.4%；澳新银行：+2.4%； 丹斯克银行：+2.4%；高盛集团：+2.4%；汇丰银行：+2.4%；荷兰国际：+2.4%； 摩根大通：+2.4%；野村证券：+2.4%；丰业银行：+2.4%；荷兰银行：+2.4%； 法兴银行：+2.4%；渣打银行：+2.4%；瑞银集团：2.4%。[路透调查：+2.4%] ...

券商中国记者统计，从员工分布来看，各大外资投行的业务侧重点不同，欧美国际投行更为重视投行业务，虽 受A股IPO、再融资政策调整，投资银行净收入大幅减少，但该条线减员情况并不明显。而个别侧重经纪业务 的外资券商，比如野村东方国际证券受影响较为明显，2024年经纪业务条线的员工减少了41%。 值得注意的是，这无关外资对中国市场战略布局的变化，而是受行业周期和短期政策影响，去年9·24一揽子政 策出台之后，A股市场活跃度大幅提升，外资机构纷纷重估中国市场并加大配置力度。目前，瑞银集团正在推 进对瑞银证券实现100%持股，摩根大通中国则在4月底重启人才招聘寻求扩张。 外资券商2 0 2 4年减员1 0% 我国金融业对外开放进一步深化，A股市场活跃度和风险偏好提升，多家国际投行在中国设立的全资或合 资券商2024年盈利能力提升，不过受市场环境波动和业务侧重点调整的影响，员工人数有所减少，平均较 2023年末减少了10%。 近日，市场传闻野村东方国际证券有意调整在中国的业务布局，收缩最初的财富管理业务，转而扩展经纪及资 产管理业务，不过目前尚未得到官方证实。 据券商中国记者不完全统计，2024年我国外资券商（包括外资控股 ...

Group 1 - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces, marking six consecutive months of gold accumulation, with total reserves reaching 73.77 million ounces, an increase of nearly 1 million ounces over the past six months [3][5] - In the first quarter, global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold, aligning with the normal purchasing levels seen over the past three years, with annual purchases averaging around 1,000 tons [3][4] Group 2 - UBS predicts that central banks will buy approximately 1,000 tons of gold by 2025, driven by rising structural demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][11] - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 29% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2018 [4] Group 3 - The historical context of gold as a monetary standard under the gold standard system highlights its enduring value as a reserve asset, despite the shift to fiat currencies [5][8] - The current global market's uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and economic challenges, have made gold a competitive and reliable asset for central banks [8][9] Group 4 - Central banks are accumulating gold as a hedge against risks associated with the dollar system, reflecting a shift in the global monetary landscape towards diversification and reduced reliance on a single currency [11]

Group 1: UBS Tax Probe Settlement - UBS Group AG has agreed to pay $511 million to resolve a tax probe by the U.S. Department of Justice against Credit Suisse for preparing false income tax returns and tax evasion [1] - The DOJ's two-year investigation found that Credit Suisse aided tax evasion through 475 offshore accounts, concealing over $4 billion from the IRS, with most misconduct occurring between 2014 and June 2023 [2] - Credit Suisse was found guilty and liable to pay $371.9 million as part of the settlement, along with an additional $138.7 million related to undeclared U.S.-linked accounts in its Singapore unit [3] Group 2: UBS Integration and Cost Management - UBS is facing challenges and legal claims post-acquisition of Credit Suisse, increasing its costs, but is on track to complete the integration by the end of 2026 [5] - In the first quarter of 2025, UBS consolidated its branch network in Switzerland, merging 95 branches since the July 2024 merger, with business migrations planned to complete by the first quarter of 2026 [6] - UBS realized an additional $0.9 billion in gross cost savings in the first quarter of 2025, with cumulative savings amounting to $8.4 billion, representing around 65% of its goal to achieve $13 billion in annualized exit rate gross cost savings by the end of 2026 [7] Group 3: UBS Stock Performance - Over the past three months, UBS Group shares have lost 7.2%, while the industry has seen an 8.8% rise [13]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group AG has formed a strategic partnership with General Atlantic to enhance private credit opportunities, focusing on direct lending solutions for clients and borrowers [1][2]. Partnership Details - The collaboration aims to broaden access to direct lending and credit products by leveraging UBS's advisory and investment banking capabilities alongside General Atlantic's global network [2]. - The partnership will primarily focus on senior secured direct lending financing for companies in North America and Western Europe, with General Atlantic leading a private credit team [3]. Rationale Behind the Partnership - This strategic collaboration is intended to strengthen UBS's Investment Bank's private market capabilities, particularly in providing private credit solutions to large- and mid-cap companies in the Americas [4]. - The partnership aligns with UBS's growth targets for its Global Banking capital markets platform, enhancing its reach and capabilities in the private credit sector [4]. Leadership Statements - Sergio P. Ermotti, CEO of UBS, expressed enthusiasm for the partnership, highlighting the shared commitment to client-centric solutions and the combined strengths of both firms in private credit investing and asset management [5]. Market Context - UBS shares have experienced a decline of 4.2% over the past six months, contrasting with a 17% rise in the industry [7]. - UBS currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook in the market [8]. Industry Comparisons - Other financial institutions are also expanding their presence in the private credit market, with JPMorgan announcing a $50 billion allocation for direct lending and Citigroup partnering with Apollo Global Management for a $25 billion private credit program [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The investment banks are increasingly bearish on the US dollar for the second half of the year, anticipating weak US economic data, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, asset sell-offs, and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Wells Fargo macro strategist Erik Nelson predicts more weak US economic data and a likelihood of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates as the market expects [1] - UBS Wealth Management senior US economist Brian Rose emphasizes that the outlook heavily depends on the independence of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that concerns over its independence could severely undermine the dollar's safe-haven status [1] Group 2: Safe-Haven Currencies - In the current environment, currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are benefiting as alternative safe-haven options [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Suisse Services AG will pay over $510 million in penalties for aiding U.S. taxpayers in evading taxes through offshore accounts, as part of a guilty plea and non-prosecution agreement with the Department of Justice (DOJ) [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Penalties and Agreements - The total amount of over $510 million includes penalties, restitution, forfeiture, and fines related to the bank's actions [2]. - The guilty plea and non-prosecution agreement involve conspiring to hide over $4 billion in assets held by wealthy clients through offshore accounts [2][3]. - Credit Suisse's non-prosecution agreement specifically addresses undeclared accounts worth over $2 billion held at Credit Suisse AG Singapore from 2014 to June 2023 [6]. Group 2: Conduct and Violations - Credit Suisse Services AG conspired with employees and U.S. customers to willfully aid in concealing ownership and control of assets from January 2010 to July 2021 [3]. - The bank provided offshore private banking services that facilitated the hiding of assets from the IRS, violating a previous 2014 plea agreement [5]. - Prior to the settlement, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee found that Credit Suisse violated its 2014 agreement by continuing to assist in tax evasion, concealing over $700 million from the government [9]. Group 3: UBS Involvement - UBS, which acquired Credit Suisse in March 2023, stated it was not involved in the underlying conduct and has a zero-tolerance policy for tax evasion [10]. - UBS has committed to cooperating with ongoing investigations and providing further information about U.S. accounts as part of the agreement [8]. - The acquisition of Credit Suisse was driven by concerns of its potential collapse, and UBS aims to resolve legacy issues promptly [12][10].