证券研究报告 AI交易切换：重视国产算力和电力建设 ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年3月1日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 目录 1、本周市场回顾 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 3、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 1. 本周市场回顾 注：本周交易日为2月24日-27日 （如无特殊说明）后文同 ✓ 本周全A日均成交2.44万亿，环比节前一周放量超3000亿 图：万 ...

Core Insights - The global electricity market is projected to experience significant growth, with an average annual increase in demand exceeding 3.5% from 2026 to 2030, equivalent to the total electricity consumption of two European Unions [1][3][5] - China is expected to contribute nearly 50% of the global electricity increment, solidifying its position as the main driver of this growth [1][5][6] Group 1: Global Electricity Demand Growth - By 2030, the global electricity consumption increment will match the total electricity output of two EU regions, estimated at approximately 5.5 to 6 trillion kilowatt-hours [3][4] - Emerging economies will account for nearly 80% of the new electricity demand, with China leading at an average annual growth rate of 4.9% [5][6] - The global electricity demand has already seen a year-on-year increase of 3% in 2025, with future growth rates projected to be 50% higher than the average of the past decade [6][8] Group 2: Energy Sources and Structure - Renewable energy and nuclear power are set to become the core support for this growth, with their share in the global electricity structure expected to rise from 42% to 50% by 2030 [10][12] - Coal will remain the largest power source until 2030, but its growth is stagnating, with global coal-fired generation expected to remain flat by 2025 [12][15] - Renewable energy is projected to grow at an annual rate of 8%, with solar power alone contributing over 600 terawatt-hours annually [13][15] Group 3: Regional Dynamics and Economic Impact - Developed economies are shifting from stagnation to becoming important contributors to electricity demand growth, with their share of global electricity demand growth increasing from 17% to 20% by 2025 [8][10] - The disparity in electricity prices is widening, with regions like the EU and the US experiencing price increases due to rising natural gas costs, while countries like Australia and India see declining prices [16] - The transition towards electrification and decarbonization is reshaping the global energy landscape, with electricity becoming a core energy source for economic growth [16]

Group 1: Core Points - The European Parliament has passed an amendment to the European Climate Law, legally establishing a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, which is crucial for achieving the EU's 2030 and 2050 climate goals [1][7] - The EU's climate actions are deeply tied to energy autonomy, especially in light of the geopolitical impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has disrupted the previous energy balance in Europe [2][3] Group 2: Energy Security and Climate Goals - The amendment to the European Climate Law provides a legal framework to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, particularly Russian gas, which has historically accounted for nearly one-third of the EU's fossil fuel imports [3][4] - The law aims to stabilize the transition to renewable energy by providing clear legal targets for the expansion of renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind power in the North Sea [3][4][7] Group 3: Regional Cooperation and Strategic Autonomy - The amendment facilitates regional cooperation among EU member states, allowing countries like Germany, Denmark, France, and the Netherlands to integrate resources and technologies, thereby enhancing overall energy resilience and strategic competitiveness [4][8] - The EU's energy strategy is evolving into a multi-dimensional approach that integrates energy supply, industrial transformation, and climate governance, with the Climate Law serving as a central link [8][9] Group 4: Risks of New Dependencies - As Europe seeks to reduce reliance on Russian energy, it risks becoming dependent on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), which could account for 57%-61% of European imports by 2025, potentially rising to 75%-80% in the coming years [5][6] - The volatility of U.S. energy prices, influenced by domestic demand and geopolitical considerations, poses a risk to European energy security, as seen in the recent spike in natural gas prices due to increased heating demand in the U.S. [5][6] Group 5: Global Climate Governance - The EU's climate legislation offers valuable lessons for global climate governance, but it faces challenges such as internal disparities among member states and external pressures from global energy dynamics [9][10] - Collaboration with countries like China in green technology and renewable energy sectors is essential for overcoming current development challenges and leading the global green transition [10]

文：泽平宏观团队 随着算⼒需求指数级增⻓，未来电⼒决定了 AI 产出上限。正如⻩仁勋所⾔，电⼒已成为 新的货币。未来，谁掌握了稳定、廉价且充沛的电⼒，谁就掌握了通⽤⼈⼯智能时代的⼊场 券。电⽹的韧性与冗余度，正成为影响一国 AI 竞争⼒的核⼼变量。 AI时代，全球能源产业迎来六大战略性机遇： 一是铜会成为新石油，作为导电核⼼材料，全球铜供应将⾯临千万吨级缺口，成为AI时代 的硬通货。 二是全球电⽹升级，特高压、变电站、柔性直流技术爆发，以解决绿电消纳与算⼒中⼼的 跨区域匹配。 三是绿电加速发展，光伏与风电决定了AI算⼒成本，光伏已开始向钙钛矿技术发展、风电 走向深远海。中国已在全球具备了绿色能源核⼼优势，⽽太空光伏将会是未来实现全天候能 源供给的重要形态。 四是储能革新，固态电池凭借高能量密度与安全性，成为适配AI数据中⼼稳定运行的终极 方案。 五是最后防线，柴油发电机因高冗余特性，成为智算中⼼不可或缺的兜底保障。 六是核能复兴，微软、亚⻢逊等科技巨头正锁定核能，可控核聚变是未来算⼒⽆限战略保 障。 如果没有足够的电⼒支持，再先进的算⼒也⽆法落地转化为生产⼒。AI竞争，是一场关于 能源效率、电⽹基建、绿电发展 ...

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) is strengthening collaborations with major power companies in nuclear energy, new energy, and technological innovation to promote high-quality development in the energy sector and contribute to the construction of a strong energy nation [2][4][6]. Group 1: Collaboration with China Huaneng - CGN's Chairman Yang Changli and General Manager Pang Songtao visited China Huaneng to discuss deepening cooperation in nuclear power projects, new energy, and digital control technologies [2]. - Yang expressed gratitude for China Huaneng's support and highlighted the successful collaboration on projects like Shidaowan Nuclear Power [2]. - Both parties aim to solidify existing cooperation and enhance collaboration in various fields to contribute to the energy sector's development [3]. Group 2: Collaboration with China Datang - CGN's leadership met with China Datang to discuss enhancing industrial cooperation, particularly in nuclear energy project operations and technological innovation [4]. - Yang congratulated China Datang on its achievements and emphasized the importance of their partnership, citing successful projects like Ningde Nuclear Power [4]. - The focus is on further collaboration in nuclear and new energy projects to support the construction of a strong energy nation [5]. Group 3: Collaboration with State Power Investment Corporation - CGN engaged in discussions with State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) to reinforce cooperation in nuclear energy, new energy, and policy alignment [6]. - Yang acknowledged SPIC's ongoing support and highlighted the fruitful outcomes of their partnership [6]. - The goal is to deepen practical cooperation in energy projects to contribute to the construction of a strong energy nation and achieve high-level technological self-reliance [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ability to supply electricity has become a core competitive advantage for tech giants in the AI race, with companies like Alibaba, Amazon, and Meta investing in nuclear energy projects to meet the surging demand for computing power [1][2][3][4] Group 2 - The first key point emphasizes the importance of nuclear power as a "hard base" for tech companies, as the rapid growth of generative AI is driving electricity consumption, and traditional fossil fuels and renewable sources like wind and solar cannot meet the stable energy demands required for AI operations [2] - The second key point discusses the shift from being passive electricity buyers to actively controlling energy supply, highlighting that the International Energy Agency predicts global data center electricity consumption will exceed 945 terawatt-hours by 2026, with AI being the largest growth driver [3] - The third key point outlines how tech giants are pursuing cross-industry collaborations to achieve mutual benefits, ensuring stable energy supply while also contributing to the advancement of nuclear technology and creating diversified energy models like "nuclear + storage" to enhance overall energy system flexibility and reliability [4]

Core Insights - The 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference concluded successfully in November 2025, establishing itself as one of the top three global events in the solar and energy storage sector alongside the SNEC in Shanghai and the Munich Solar Energy Storage Exhibition [1][3] - The upcoming 9th conference is scheduled for November 17-20, 2026, in Chengdu, aiming to further promote industry collaboration and innovation [1][8] Industry Developments - As of September 2025, China's renewable energy installed capacity reached nearly 2.2 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, with a share of approximately 59.1% in the energy mix [3] - The installed capacity of new energy storage exceeded 100 million kilowatts, growing over 30 times compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, accounting for more than 40% of the global total [3] - The national energy work conference in December 2025 set clear goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for a green and low-carbon energy transition, with a target of adding over 20 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity in 2026 [3] Conference Achievements - The 8th conference facilitated over 33 billion yuan in cooperation projects, covering various aspects of the renewable energy industry, including centralized and distributed solar projects, independent energy storage, and smart energy solutions [5] - The event has evolved from a simple forum to a comprehensive platform for exhibitions, discussions, and collaborations, expanding its global network and influence [5] Future Outlook - The 9th conference will focus on building a platform for policy interpretation, industry collaboration, and international cooperation, aiming to transition the energy storage industry from growth to system empowerment and ecological co-construction [8] - Key highlights of the upcoming conference include authoritative forums, technology summits, application scenario exhibitions, and a global procurement exchange area to enhance practical cooperation within the industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is restructuring, revising, or canceling over $83 billion in clean energy project loans and conditional commitments made during the Biden administration, marking a historic shift in U.S. energy investment direction [1][2] Group 1: Policy Changes - The Loan Programs Office (LPO) has been officially renamed to the Energy Dominance Financing Office (EDF), shifting its focus from promoting low-carbon climate governance to achieving U.S. energy independence and export dominance [1] - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced that this action follows a detailed first-year review of the previous administration's $104 billion principal loan obligations, including approximately $85 billion that was hastily allocated in the final months before the election [1] Group 2: Financial Adjustments - Approximately $30 billion in financing projects will be directly canceled, focusing on renewable energy infrastructure loans worth about $9.5 billion for onshore and offshore wind and solar power [1] - The remaining $53.6 billion in existing projects will undergo strict restructuring and conditional revisions to align with the new administration's strategic interests [1] Group 3: Funding Priorities - The EDF currently holds over $289 billion in available loan authority, making it the largest energy lending institution globally [2] - By 2026, EDF will prioritize financing for energy and manufacturing projects that enhance U.S. energy security, grid reliability, and reduce costs for all Americans [2] - The reallocation of funds and contract re-evaluations reflect a strong cleanup of existing funds under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and significantly alter the U.S. government's credit allocation preferences as the largest energy financing entity [2] Group 4: Market Implications - The decision to withdraw funding and shift focus towards fossil fuels and nuclear energy is reshaping the long-term investment return logic in the U.S. electricity energy market [2] - The global energy transition supply chain is expected to face profound decentralization pressures as a result of these changes [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on Trump's aggressive foreign policy approach, which emphasizes a transactional view of international relations, particularly with NATO allies and energy resources [1][4][12] - Trump has shifted the NATO defense spending target from 2% of GDP to over 5%, causing significant concern among European nations [4][5] - The U.S. administration's stance on Greenland highlights the strategic importance of the island for national security and resource acquisition, with Trump expressing a desire to purchase it [5][10][11] Group 2 - The establishment of the National Energy Council marks a new phase in U.S. energy policy, aiming to enhance energy dominance by removing regulatory barriers and promoting fossil fuels [12][14] - The administration plans to cut fees for extraction activities and support traditional energy sources while tightening policies on renewable energy [14][15] - Trump's ongoing conflict with the Federal Reserve over interest rates reflects a fundamental disagreement on economic policy, with Trump advocating for lower rates to stimulate growth [15][18]

Market Overview - On January 21, Hong Kong stocks experienced a slight adjustment in the morning but rebounded in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 97 points (0.4%) to close at 26,857 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 62 points (1.1%), closing at 5,746 points, with total market turnover reaching HKD 250.5 billion[1] - Southbound capital inflow expanded to HKD 13.89 billion[1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector remained strong, driven by Micron's announcement of a potential memory shortage lasting until 2028, with Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC rising by 4%-6%[1] - TCL Electronics surged by 14.8% after announcing a joint venture with Sony, holding a 51% stake[1] - Skyworth Group's stock jumped by 37.5% following its announcement of a spin-off and share buyback[1] Geopolitical Impact - Gold stocks generally rose due to heightened geopolitical tensions, with Lingbao Gold and Zhaojin Mining increasing by 5%-8%[1] - The report suggests a short-term focus on strong sectors such as semiconductors and gold[1] U.S. Market Reaction - In the U.S., the Dow Jones Index rebounded by 588 points (1.5%) to 49,077 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rose by 270 points (1.2%) and 78 points respectively[2] - Gold prices remained strong, peaking at USD 4,888.4 per ounce[2] Macroeconomic Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission outlined policy directions for 2026, focusing on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand strategies[3] Automotive Sector - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group saw a 7.5% increase in stock price after a major shareholder reduced their stake by 2%[4] - The company is expected to maintain strong export growth and a high dividend yield of approximately 7%[4] Energy and Utilities - Defensive sectors like environmental protection and gas utilities received support amid rising geopolitical risks, with stocks like Hong Kong and China Gas and CLP Holdings rising by 1.1%-3.2%[4] - Alibaba and China National Nuclear Corporation formed a joint venture for nuclear energy, potentially benefiting related companies[4] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 0.7%, with WuXi Biologics increasing by 3.5%[5] - The CXO sector is expected to see a rebound in demand, with a projected 20.6% increase in clinical trial projects per company by 2025[5]