迄今为止，今年标准普尔500指数上涨12.26%。表1所列的八只股票在标准普尔500指数的合计权重达到 37.40%，对今年指数的涨幅贡献了69.53%。换言之，美国股票市场已深度绑定了芯片和AI投资，可谓 是一荣俱荣，一损俱损。 这八只股票曾数十次把股票指数推到历史新高。迄今为止，今年费城半导体指数行业指数（PHLX Semiconductor Sector）大涨27.45%，但一个月内跌了6.33%，仅上周就跌了5.94%。随着投资者对人工 智能投资的质疑越来越多，一些大机构开始落袋为安，股票市场失去了以往的上冲动力，利好消息刺激 作用变得越来越弱。 南方财经21世纪经济报道特约撰稿 王应贵 上周，美股市场所期盼的两份重磅报告相继公布，虽成绩远超市场预期，但投资者却并不买账，市场恐 慌情绪升温。 上周三收盘后，英伟达公布了季度业绩，第三季度营收570.1亿美元，高于预期的549.2亿美元，每股收 益达1.30美元，也高于预期的1.25美元，并且本季度营收预期为650亿美元。当日收盘时，英伟达股票涨 2.85%，业绩公布后的延时交易段又涨了约4%。英伟达甚至披露未来Blackwell和Rubin芯片有望带来 ...

上周，美股市场所期盼的两份重磅报告相继公布，虽成绩远超市场预期，但投资者却并不买账，市场恐慌情绪升温。 上周三收盘后，英伟达公布了季度业绩，第三季度营收570.1亿美元，高于预期的549.2亿美元，每股收益达1.30美元，也高于预期的1.25美元，并且本季度营 收预期为650亿美元。当日收盘时，英伟达股票涨2.85%，业绩公布后的延时交易段又涨了约4%。英伟达甚至披露未来Blackwell和Rubin芯片有望带来5000亿 美元的营收，但美股AI板块却未能扭转颓势。次日，美股高开低走，相关个股集体跳水。 上周四，另一份重要的经济成绩单——美国劳工部9月份就业报告公布，失业率由8月的4.3%升至4.4%，但新增就业岗位11.9万个，大幅超过预期的5.3万 个。然而，这个值得欣慰的消息也未能挽回大盘颓势。 截至上周五收盘，上周美国三大股票指数——道琼斯30种工业股票平均指数、标准普尔500指数、纳斯达克指数分别跌了1.91%、1.95%、2.74%。在其它市 场方面，12月黄金期货跌0.61%；12月美元指数期货涨0.92%；比特币跌10.35%；十年期国债收益率跌2.05%。投资者经历了苦涩的一周。 市场质疑A ...

Group 1 - Nvidia reported its Q3 2025 earnings with revenue and net profit exceeding expectations, projecting $500 billion revenue visibility from future Blackwell and Rubin chips [1] - Despite Nvidia's strong performance, the AI sector in the US stock market did not recover, with related stocks experiencing a collective decline the following day [1] - The cooling of the AI sector is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over OpenAI's solvency and its substantial collaborations with cloud providers and chip companies exceeding current revenues [3] Group 2 - Nvidia faces challenges such as rising inventory levels and deferred revenue models, raising investor concerns about potential revenue gaps if future orders slow down [3] - Some analysts argue that the increase in inventory is a strategic move to ensure capacity and address supply chain competition [3] - Google's release of the Gemini 3 model, which outperforms ChatGPT and is based on self-developed TPU training, reduces market dependence on Nvidia's chips, further impacting sector sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has confirmed a strong revenue outlook for its data center business, projecting over $500 billion in revenue for the fiscal year 2025/26, with potential for further upside [1][7]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $55.4 billion. The fourth-quarter revenue guidance is set at $65 billion, also above market estimates of $62.4 billion [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in gross margin to 75% in the fourth quarter, aligning with previously set management targets, despite rising costs for HBM memory and other components [3]. Earnings Forecast - Goldman Sachs has raised Nvidia's future earnings per share (EPS) expectations by an average of 12% for the coming years. The firm has also provided EPS forecasts for fiscal years 2028 to 2030, estimating $15.60, $18.65, and $22.10 respectively [4]. Key Issues Addressed - Nvidia's management confirmed the expectation of exceeding $500 billion in data center product demand for the fiscal year 2025/26, with ongoing customer orders suggesting further growth potential [7]. - The next-generation Rubin chip is scheduled for release in mid-2026, with significant revenue contributions expected in the latter half of the same year, alleviating market concerns regarding product roadmap execution [7]. - Management provided evidence of the GPU product lifecycle, noting that the Ampere architecture GPU (A100), launched six years ago, continues to operate under high loads, indicating exceptional durability and longevity beyond customer depreciation expectations [8]. Data Center Business Growth - Nvidia's data center computing business achieved $51.2 billion in revenue for the third quarter, marking a 56% year-over-year increase. The new Blackwell Ultra (GB300) series accounted for two-thirds of total shipments in the Blackwell series [9]. - The data center networking business saw a remarkable 162% year-over-year growth, reaching $8.2 billion, driven by strong demand for NVLink, Spectrum-X, and Infiniband solutions, with significant contributions from major clients like Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and xAI [10]. - Looking ahead, Nvidia maintains its long-term outlook for the AI infrastructure market, predicting global annual spending to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, and aims to secure a significant share of this expansive market [10].

我毫不怀疑英伟达即将交出一份令人惊叹的、创纪录的财报。它超越预期的能力也几乎毋庸置疑。事实上，英伟达延续了打破 市场平均预期约20亿美元的奇特趋势，宣布营收达570亿美元——较去年同期增长62%。数据中心营收突破500亿美元大关，每股 收益同样超出预期。 但更令人惊叹的是——这与黄仁勋此前言论完全吻合——他宣称"Blackwell芯片销量突破天际"。公司现预计本季度营收将攀升 至650亿美元。这一数字虽高于分析师预期，但仍符合黄仁勋此前宣称的"今年及明年已售出价值约5000亿美元的Rubin和 Blackwell芯片"的预测。简而言之，昨日财报中没有任何令人意外的内容。英伟达延续了自2023年以来的最佳表现：持续带来超 预期惊喜。 多头们对此难以抗拒，股价应声跳涨5%。市场反应的关键转折或许在于黄仁勋的宣言："我们已进入AI良性循环。AI生态正加 速扩张——更多基础模型厂商涌现，更多AI初创企业跨行业跨国发展。AI正无处不在、无所不能地全面渗透。" 随着市场对美联储鸽派预期的消退，美元指数已突破200日均线，今日亚洲时段延续升势。尽管这如同重温上月天气预报，但美 国9月就业数据仍值得关注。彭博共识预测显示，在 ...

据英伟达发布的最新财报显示，公司第三季度营收达570亿美元，远超华尔街预期的554亿美元。同时，公司第四季度营收指引达650亿美元，同样 高于市场预估的624亿美元。受亮眼业绩推动，英伟达股价在美股盘后涨超5%。 针对这份财报，高盛最新研报维持对英伟达"买入"评级，并将未来12个月目标价从240美元上调至250美元。高盛分析师指出，相较于强劲的财务 数据，管理层在财报会议中对三个关键问题的回应更具战略意义。 这三个问题涵盖数据中心收入前景、下一代Rubin芯片的进展，以及GPU产品生命周期。管理层的明确回应为投资者提供了关于公司长期增长确 定性的重要依据。报告进一步指出，尽管投资者此前对本季度业绩预期已相对充分，但管理层的清晰表态有望为股价延续上涨势头提供支撑。 财报显示，英伟达预计第四季度毛利率将回升至75%，重新达到管理层此前设定的目标水平。尽管面临HBM内存及其他组件成本上升的压力，公 司仍相信通过产品定价优化与成本控制措施，能够在2026年将毛利率维持在70%左右。 基于对营收与毛利率前景的进一步看好，高盛将英伟达未来几年的每股收益（EPS）预期平均上调12%。此外，高盛首次给出2028至2030财年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's latest earnings report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 significantly exceeded expectations, showcasing strong revenue growth and robust guidance for the upcoming quarter, alleviating concerns about an "AI bubble" in the market [3][6]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, Nvidia reported revenue of $57.01 billion, representing a substantial year-over-year increase of 62%, surpassing analyst expectations of $55.19 billion [3][4]. - Adjusted operating profit reached $37.75 billion, also up 62% year-over-year, exceeding the forecast of $36.46 billion [4]. - Research and development expenses increased by 39% year-over-year, while the market had anticipated a 46% rise [4]. Profitability Metrics - The adjusted gross margin was reported at 73.1%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.4 percentage points, although slightly below the analyst expectation of 73.7% [5]. Future Guidance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, Nvidia expects revenue to be around $65 billion, which is above market expectations [7]. - The adjusted gross margin is projected to be between 74.5% and 75.5%, with the median analyst expectation at 74.6% [8]. Market Demand and Product Performance - Nvidia's CEO highlighted that the sales of the latest Blackwell architecture chips have exceeded expectations, with cloud GPUs sold out [9]. - The demand for computing in both training and inference areas is accelerating, with both showing exponential growth [9]. - The AI ecosystem is rapidly scaling, with an increasing number of new foundational model developers and AI startups emerging across various industries and countries [10][11]. Product Insights - The best-selling chip series currently is the Blackwell Ultra, which is the second generation of Blackwell chips, with demand consistently exceeding expectations [13]. - Nvidia anticipates $500 billion in revenue from the Blackwell and Rubin projects [13]. - The A100 GPUs, released six years ago, are still operating at full capacity, indicating an extended lifespan for GPUs [13]. - The Rubin chip is expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026 [13].

这恐怕是2025年最受瞩目的一份财务报表。 10月末，AI芯片霸主英伟达成为人类历史上首家市值5万亿美元的公司，11月"AI泡沫论"引发华尔街焦 虑，以"美股科技七巨头"为牛首的标普500指数几乎遭遇了2008年金融危机以来最糟糕的一个11月。 人们都在屏息以待这份关键的业绩报表，试图从中找出人工智能需求是否持续、资本支出是否过热、 AI是否会重蹈互联网泡沫覆辙等的答案。 美东时间11月19日美股盘后（北京时间11月20日凌晨5时），英伟达公布了这份重要"成绩单"，并再次 超出市场预期。 市场在焦灼和等待什么？ 财报发布前，市场对英伟达的财报关注焦点主要集中在三个方面。 一是，最基本的营收和利润问题。 这最直接的折射出最近一段时间市场对AI芯片的真实需求，以及企业基本面。 此前,华尔街对英伟达的预期相对一致。LSEG的分析师调查中对英伟达三季度营收（截至今年10月）预 测为549亿美元，FactSet的分析师调查为548.3亿美元。而最终，英伟达三季度营收达到创纪录的570.1亿 美元，同比增长62%，环比增长22%。值得一体的是，这也是该公司自2023年以来连续第11个财季超出 市场预期。 在利润方面，此前 ...

第三财季毛利率为73.4%，与上年同期的74.6相比下降1.2%，但与上一财季的72.4%相比增长1%。按照 非公认会计准则计算，毛利率为73.6%，与上年同期的75相比下降1.4%，但与上一财季的72.7%相比增 长0.9%。 新华财经北京11月20日电（王媛媛）美东时间周三盘后，人工智能（AI）龙头股英伟达公布了超出预 期的三季度财报。 受此影响，英伟达股价在美股盘后交易中直线猛拉，一度暴涨超6%，截至发稿涨近5%。美股其他AI概 念股盘后亦全线走强，AMD大涨超3%，台积电、甲骨文、美光科技涨超2%。 有分析指出，随着英伟达公布的财报及业绩指引超出预期，过去几周在市场上不断蔓延的"AI泡沫"忧虑 有望缓解，市场对英伟达AI芯片的需求依然旺盛。 Q3财报及Q4营收展望均超市场预期 财报显示，英伟达第三财季营收为570.06亿美元，与上年同期的350.82亿美元相比增长62%，与上一财 季的467.43亿美元相比增长22%，超过LSEG所调查分析师平均预期的549.2亿美元。 | GAAP | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (S in m ...

Core Insights - Nvidia reported a significant revenue increase of 62% year-over-year for Q3 FY26, surpassing analyst expectations and indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure [4][10][14] - The company's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasized that the latest Blackwell architecture chips are in high demand, with cloud GPUs sold out, countering concerns about an AI bubble [1][15] - Nvidia's cash reserves stand at $60.6 billion, providing ample support for ongoing AI applications in new economic sectors [1][4] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 FY26 reached $57.01 billion, exceeding the company's guidance and analyst expectations [4][10] - Non-GAAP EPS for Q3 was $1.30, a 60% increase year-over-year, also surpassing analyst predictions [4][10] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 was 73.6%, slightly below expectations but still indicating strong profitability [4][10] Segment Performance - Data center revenue for Q3 was $51.2 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, marking a record high for the segment [4][12] - Gaming and AI PC revenue reached $4.3 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year, although slightly below analyst expectations [5][12] - Professional visualization revenue was $760 million, up 56% year-over-year, exceeding analyst forecasts [6][12] - Automotive and robotics revenue was $592 million, a 32% increase year-over-year, but lower than expected [7][12] Guidance and Future Outlook - For Q4 FY26, Nvidia expects revenue to be around $65 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of over 65% [10][13] - The company anticipates a gross margin of 75% for Q4, which would be the first year-over-year increase in six quarters [10][13] - Nvidia's CFO highlighted that the company has secured $500 billion in chip orders for 2025 and 2026, indicating strong future demand [15][16] Market Position and Strategy - Nvidia's customer base includes major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, which collectively account for over 40% of its sales [15][16] - The company is focusing on enhancing its technology applications and exploring competitive data center products for the Chinese market [16]