Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 60% to 10.01 billion RMB in Q3, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated gross margin for Q3 is 22.9%, surpassing the market forecast of 22.5% despite rising BOM costs [1] - The target price for Xiaomi has been adjusted from 62.96 HKD to 61.3 HKD, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The outlook for Q4 remains positive, with expectations that the Xiaomi 17 Pro and Pro-max will enhance the sales mix [1] - Strong delivery performance in the electric vehicle segment is noted, with improvements in profitability and potential capacity expansion [1] - The internet business is projected to grow steadily, with an expected gross margin of 75% [1] Group 3: Adjustments to Profit Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been slightly reduced by 3% to 4% to account for weak smartphone performance, electric vehicle breakeven in Q3, and rising BOM costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) is expected to report a 60% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q3, reaching 10.01 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated gross margin for Q3 is 22.9%, surpassing the market forecast of 22.5% despite rising BOM costs [1] - The forecast for adjusted net profit for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been slightly reduced by 3% to 4% due to weak smartphone performance and rising BOM costs [1] Product Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for Q4, with expectations that the Xiaomi 17 Pro and Pro-max will enhance the sales mix [1] - Strong delivery performance in the electric vehicle segment is noted, with improved profitability and potential capacity expansion [1] Internet Business - The internet business is projected to continue stable growth, with an expected gross margin of 75% [1]

Xiaomi Corp 3Q25 Preview Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Market Cap**: US$150.321 billion - **Price Target**: HK$62.00 - **Current Price**: HK$45.80 Key Points Electric Vehicle (EV) Performance - **Stronger-than-expected EV shipments**: Xiaomi's EV shipments exceeded 40,000 units in September, leading to an increase in the full-year 2025 shipment forecast from 370,000 units to 385,000 units [3][10] - **Break-even achievement**: The company is expected to achieve EV break-even in 3Q25, marking the first time since the official EV launch in 2Q24 [3][27] Smartphone Business - **Margin pressure**: The smartphone segment is facing margin pressure due to rising memory costs, leading to a reduction in the 2026 smartphone margin estimate from 12.4% to 10.9% [4][10] - **Long-term outlook**: While the smartphone business can eventually pass through the cost pressures, near-term earnings will be impacted [4] AIoT Growth - **Deceleration in growth**: After achieving 59% YoY growth in 1Q25 and 45% in 2Q25, AIoT growth is expected to decelerate, prompting a 5% revenue forecast reduction for 2025 and an 8% reduction for 2026 [5][10] - **Long-term potential**: Despite the slowdown, Xiaomi's AIoT segment is believed to have robust long-term growth potential due to synergies from the combined offerings of smartphones, EVs, and AIoT [5] Earnings Estimates - **Revisions for 2025-2027**: - 2025 net income estimate raised by 1% due to better-than-expected EV shipments - 2026 net income estimate reduced by 6% due to smartphone margin pressure and AIoT slowdown - 2027 estimate trimmed by 3% reflecting a recovery in smartphone margins [6][14] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025: Rmb 467.7 billion - 2026: Rmb 592.0 billion - 2027: Rmb 677.6 billion [18] - **Net Income**: - 2025: Rmb 40.2 billion - 2026: Rmb 45.5 billion - 2027: Rmb 57.7 billion [18] Valuation Methodology - **SOTP Valuation**: The price target is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology, applying a cost of equity of 11% for smartphones and IoT, and 11.4% for Internet services [16][34] Risks and Opportunities - **Opportunities**: Successful EV launches could enhance brand equity and market share in high-end segments [29] - **Risks**: Rising geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain issues could negatively impact performance [28][38] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: Xiaomi is positioned for growth with its unique integration of smartphones, EVs, and AIoT, despite facing near-term challenges in margins and growth rates [30][29]

智通财经APP讯，小米集团-W(01810)发布公告，于2025年10月27日，就根据股份计划合共发行4130.46 万股股份。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) announced the issuance of a total of 41.3046 million shares under its share scheme on October 27, 2025 [1] Summary by Category - **Company Announcement** - Xiaomi Group-W will issue 41.3046 million shares as part of its share plan [1]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期： 2025年10月27日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | | 01810 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | | 81810 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi's founder and CEO Lei Jun highlighted significant improvements in the design, craftsmanship, and feel of the new K90 series, suggesting it is increasingly approaching flagship quality [1][3] Product Launch - The REDMI K90 series was officially launched on October 23, featuring two models: REDMI K90 Pro Max and REDMI K90 [3] - The starting price for K90 Pro Max is 3999 yuan, while K90 starts at 2599 yuan [3] Design and Technology - The K90 model's back is crafted using a process similar to that of the iPhone 17, utilizing cold-etched glass technology [3] - Cold-etched glass involves reducing the thickness of a flat glass piece through precision machining to create a curved surface [3]

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) experienced a significant decline, dropping over 4% in early trading, reaching a low of 43.88 HKD, marking the lowest point since April of this year [2] - As of the latest update, the stock is down 3.22%, trading at 44.44 HKD, with a trading volume of 7.075 billion HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant growth in adjusted net profit and revenue in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in its smartphone and automotive segments, despite some challenges in the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue is projected to increase by 21.46% year-on-year to 112.36 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit expected to rise by 68.88% to 10.56 billion yuan, largely due to profitability in automotive and innovative businesses [1]. - Smartphone revenue is anticipated to decline by 3.49% year-on-year to 45.80 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in average selling price (ASP) to 1,065 yuan [1]. - IoT revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to 27.41 billion yuan, with an improved gross margin of 23.5% [2]. - Internet services revenue is projected to increase by 9% year-on-year to 9.23 billion yuan, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 75% [2]. - Automotive deliveries are forecasted to reach 109,000 units, generating revenue of 29.43 billion yuan, with the automotive business likely achieving its first quarterly profit of 707 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global smartphone shipment is expected to maintain a top-three position, with a 1.8% year-on-year increase to 43.50 million units, although the Chinese market is projected to see a slight decline of 1.7% [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end models like the Xiaomi 17 series, which has shown strong initial sales performance [1]. - The automotive segment is anticipated to benefit from increased deliveries and the release of new models, contributing to sustained growth in both delivery volume and profitability [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 5.2% and 3.6% to 43.76 billion yuan and 64.02 billion yuan, respectively, due to rising storage costs [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0x for 2025 and 16.9x for 2026 based on adjusted net profit [2]. - The target price has been lowered by 15% to 59.5 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 29.6% based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method [2].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock experienced a significant decline, reaching a new low since April 2023, primarily due to expectations of lower-than-expected earnings in the upcoming Q3 2025 report [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Citigroup forecasts that Xiaomi's adjusted net profit will reach 10.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% [1] - The decline in smartphone gross margins and IoT revenue is attributed to unfavorable regional mix and rising memory prices, while internet and electric vehicle businesses are expected to meet projections [1] Business Segment Analysis - Huatai Securities anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive business may achieve profitability in Q3 [1] - Despite challenges in the smartphone sector due to rising storage costs, the company is maintaining a high-end strategy, which is expected to mitigate some industry pressures, with a projected gross margin of around 11% for the second half of the year [1] - The IoT business is expected to maintain strong gross margins, even with the impact of reduced government subsidies on revenue growth, as there were no promotional events in Q3 [1] - The internet business continues to show steady performance [1]