花旗银行认为，小米集团设定的2026年电动车交付目标较为保守。根据2025年12月单月交付超过5万辆 的运行速率，小米的产能完全有能力支撑超过60万辆的交付。花旗银行的情境分析显示，如果电动车出 货量下调21%，可能对电动车营业利润造成54亿元人民币的影响，相当于该行对小米2026年调整后净利 润预测的11%。花旗银行还指出，小米实际积压订单已低于20万辆，且年底的月度新订单已稳定在约2 万辆。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 来源：观点地产网 观点网讯：1月5日，据花旗银行最新报告指出，小米集团董事长雷军在1月3日晚间的新年直播中透露， 2026年电动车交付目标为55万辆，同比增长34%以上。这一数字低于投资者预期的60万至70万辆，也低 于花旗预估的70万辆。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi's report indicates that Xiaomi is likely to achieve its annual delivery target of 400,000 units based on the current delivery rate of over 10,000 units per week or nearly 50,000 units per month [1] Group 1 - Citi maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi with a target price of HKD 50, which is based on a comprehensive valuation approach [1] - The valuation for Xiaomi's electric vehicle (EV) business is set at a price-to-sales ratio of 1.5 times [1] - Short-term catalysts for Xiaomi include the acceleration of EV deliveries and orders, as well as updates to new EV models [1]

Group 1 - Southbound funds net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 10.373 billion HKD on November 5, with notable net purchases in Southern Hang Seng Technology (1.287 billion HKD), Alibaba-W (890.64 million HKD), Xiaomi Group-W (650 million HKD), China Mobile (206 million HKD), and Meituan-W (184 million HKD) [1] - Significant net sales were observed in Hua Hong Semiconductor (640 million HKD), SMIC (499 million HKD), Bilibili-W (160 million HKD), and Ganfeng Lithium (101 million HKD) [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Xiaomi for 6 days, totaling 3.56561 billion HKD, and China Mobile for 3 days, totaling 1.42 billion HKD; conversely, there have been 4 consecutive days of net selling in SMIC, totaling 2.82588 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - Alibaba's Qwen3-Max reasoning model is still under continuous training, achieving 100% accuracy on challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks when utilizing tools and scaled testing [4] - Xiaomi Group is expected to see a year-on-year revenue growth of 22% and adjusted net profit growth of 60% in Q3, reaching 112.9 billion and 10 billion RMB respectively, driven by stable electric vehicle sales [4] - Meituan's international food delivery brand Keeta has officially launched operations in Brazil, starting in Santos and São Vicente, with plans to expand to São Paulo by the end of the year [4]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 54.72 billion HKD from northbound trading on November 3, with 13.04 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 41.68 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The most net bought stocks included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), CNOOC (00883), and China Mobile (00941) [1] - The most net sold stocks were SMIC (00981), Alibaba-W (09988), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Analysis - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) received a net inflow of 10.29 billion HKD, with Citigroup estimating that its electric vehicle deliveries exceeded 40,000 units in October, bringing the year-to-date total to over 308,000 units, achieving 88% of its 2025 target of 350,000 units [5] - CNOOC (00883) saw a net inflow of 9.93 billion HKD, with OPEC+ announcing a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December, while also planning to pause production increases from January to March next year [5] - Kangfang Biopharma (09926) had a net inflow of 3.72 billion HKD, as its dual-specific antibody drug was included in the breakthrough therapy designation list, accelerating its clinical development [6] - Three-Sixty Biopharma (01530) received a net inflow of 3.25 billion HKD, with Pfizer starting two global Phase III clinical trials for its dual-specific antibody [6] - Innovent Biologics (01801) had a net inflow of 2.96 billion HKD, reporting a 40% year-on-year increase in total product revenue for Q3 2025 and forming a global strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical [7] Group 3: Market Trends - There is a continued reduction in holdings of semiconductor stocks, with SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) experiencing net outflows of 1.38 billion HKD and 628 million HKD, respectively [7] - China Mobile (00941) and Pop Mart (09922) received net inflows of 461 million HKD and 52.96 million HKD, respectively, while Tencent (00700) and Alibaba-W (09988) faced net outflows of 151 million HKD and 955 million HKD [7]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock has dropped over 3% and has seen a cumulative decline of 25% in the past month, attributed to rising memory chip prices and a decrease in sales in the Chinese market [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - As of the latest report, Xiaomi's stock is trading at 44.42 HKD with a trading volume of 5.994 billion HKD [1] - Citigroup forecasts that Xiaomi's adjusted net profit will reach 10.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5% [1] - The anticipated gross margin for Xiaomi smartphones is expected to decline by 0.5 percentage points to 11% in Q3 due to the impact of rising memory prices and a decrease in sales in the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The total sales of the recently launched Xiaomi 17 series have increased by 30% year-on-year, with the Pro version accounting for over 80% of sales, indicating successful high-end product positioning [1] - The performance of the electric vehicle segment is showing steady improvement, which may contribute positively to the company's overall profitability [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Xiaomi is set to announce its Q3 2025 earnings on November 18, with expectations that overall performance may slightly underperform due to lower-than-expected smartphone gross margins and IoT revenue [1] - The decline in IoT revenue is attributed to the weakening effect of subsidies in China [1]

Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 60% to 10.01 billion RMB in Q3, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated gross margin for Q3 is 22.9%, surpassing the market forecast of 22.5% despite rising BOM costs [1] - The target price for Xiaomi has been adjusted from 62.96 HKD to 61.3 HKD, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The outlook for Q4 remains positive, with expectations that the Xiaomi 17 Pro and Pro-max will enhance the sales mix [1] - Strong delivery performance in the electric vehicle segment is noted, with improvements in profitability and potential capacity expansion [1] - The internet business is projected to grow steadily, with an expected gross margin of 75% [1] Group 3: Adjustments to Profit Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been slightly reduced by 3% to 4% to account for weak smartphone performance, electric vehicle breakeven in Q3, and rising BOM costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) is expected to report a 60% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q3, reaching 10.01 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated gross margin for Q3 is 22.9%, surpassing the market forecast of 22.5% despite rising BOM costs [1] - The forecast for adjusted net profit for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been slightly reduced by 3% to 4% due to weak smartphone performance and rising BOM costs [1] Product Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for Q4, with expectations that the Xiaomi 17 Pro and Pro-max will enhance the sales mix [1] - Strong delivery performance in the electric vehicle segment is noted, with improved profitability and potential capacity expansion [1] Internet Business - The internet business is projected to continue stable growth, with an expected gross margin of 75% [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a net sell-off of 3.99 billion HKD from northbound trading, with significant movements in various stocks, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and trading strategies. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading saw a net sell of 12.2 billion HKD in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net buy of 8.21 billion HKD in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] - The most bought stocks included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Pop Mart (09992), and ZTE Corporation (00763) [1] - The most sold stocks were SMIC (00981), Alibaba-W (09988), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) [1] Group 2: Stock-Specific Insights - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net buy of 9.33 billion HKD, with a reported increase in electric vehicle deliveries to over 40,000 units in September, up from 36,000 in August [4] - Pop Mart (09992) received a net buy of 6.69 billion HKD, with new product launches selling out quickly and expectations for strong sales during upcoming festive seasons [5] - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw a net buy of 4.9 billion HKD, with analysts highlighting its unique position in providing end-to-end communication solutions and potential benefits from AI development [5] Group 3: Notable Sell-offs - Alibaba-W (09988) faced a net sell of 18.1 billion HKD, while Tencent (00700) experienced a net sell of 9.51 billion HKD, reflecting concerns over market valuations and potential corrections [6] - SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) were sold off significantly, with net sells of 27.08 billion HKD and 11.44 billion HKD respectively, attributed to high static P/E ratios leading to adjustments in margin financing [6]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a net sell-off of 399 million HKD from northbound trading, with a net sell of 1.22 billion HKD from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net buy of 821 million HKD from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The most bought stocks by northbound trading include Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Pop Mart (09992), and ZTE Corporation (00763) [1] - The most sold stocks include Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981), Alibaba-W (09988), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) [1] Group 2: Detailed Stock Transactions - Alibaba-W had a buy amount of 6.353 billion HKD and a sell amount of 7.696 billion HKD, resulting in a net outflow of 1.344 billion HKD [2] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation had a buy amount of 3.597 billion HKD and a sell amount of 5.066 billion HKD, leading to a net outflow of 1.469 billion HKD [2] - Xiaomi Group-W had a buy amount of 1.921 billion HKD and a sell amount of 1.385 billion HKD, resulting in a net inflow of 535 million HKD [2] Group 3: Notable Company Updates - Xiaomi Group-W reported over 40,000 electric vehicle deliveries in September, an increase from 36,000 in August, benefiting from improved production capacity [4] - Pop Mart (09992) saw strong sales with its new product series selling out immediately, and analysts expect continued sales momentum due to upcoming consumer seasons [5] - ZTE Corporation (00763) is recognized as a rare provider of end-to-end communication equipment solutions and is expected to benefit from AI development [5] - Meituan-W (03690) reported a 30% increase in travel orders during the recent holiday period compared to the previous year, indicating a trend towards deep tourism [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trends - Northbound trading has reduced holdings in tech stocks, with Tencent (00700) and Alibaba-W (09988) facing net sell-offs of 951 million HKD and 1.81 billion HKD respectively [6] - Concerns have arisen regarding the high valuations of certain stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, leading to significant sell-offs [6]

Group 1: Alibaba Group - CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW, raising the target price to HKD 195, citing advancements in AI infrastructure investment of RMB 380 billion and a projected 10x increase in data center energy consumption by 2032 [1] - CICC also maintains an "Outperform" rating for Alibaba-SW, increasing the target price to HKD 197, highlighting the leading position of Tongyi model ecosystem and the potential for commercial value release [1] Group 2: Kuaishou Technology - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W, setting a target price of HKD 95.37, noting significant advancements in the 可灵 2.5 Turbo model for text understanding and video generation [1] Group 3: Xiaomi Corporation - Daiwa Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group, with a target price of HKD 76, reporting an increase in weekly electric vehicle deliveries to 10,000-12,000 units and plans to enter the European market by 2027 [2] Group 4: Longwind Pharmaceutical - China Everbright Securities International highlights Longwind Pharmaceutical's strong growth prospects, focusing on inhalation technology and drug development, with six products approved in the respiratory disease field [3] Group 5: Nine Dragons Paper Holdings - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper, setting a target price of HKD 6.5, with a projected net profit of RMB 1.767 billion for FY25 and a 9.7% increase in sales [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan also maintains a "Buy" rating, noting significant improvements in gross profit and net profit, with expected growth in net profit for 2026-2028 [4] - Guotai Junan raises the target price for Nine Dragons Paper to HKD 7.37, citing a 9.6% increase in sales and a 1.9 percentage point rise in gross margin [4] Group 6: Xindong Company - CMB Securities strongly recommends Xindong Company, highlighting the successful public testing of "伊瑟" and a 37.74% increase in revenue from the TapTap platform [5] Group 7: Mixue Group - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Mixue Group, emphasizing its efficient supply chain and membership growth exceeding 300 million, with plans for expansion in Southeast Asia and new global markets [6]