April 14, 2025 09:00 AM GMT Municipal Strategy | North America M Update Tactics This Week: Choppy Conditions Likely Key Takeaways The core ingredients of a recovery are present: A recovery could take another week, however: We doubt that SMA demand will immediately pick up the slack: As a practical matter, supply is likely to remain busy: Our full Tactics publication will resume after the holiday week. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Mark T Schmidt, CFA Strategist Mark.Schmidt1@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-8702 Mor ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 April 2025 (852) 2800-8513 karl.chan@jpmorgan.com Jocelyn Gao (852) 2800-8529 jocelyn.gao@jpmorgan.com Venus Choi (852) 2800-8599 Property Data Monitor Mainland China: all leading indicators turned weak; HK: lackluster weekly sales Mainland China Hong Kong SAR See page 16 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors sho ...

Post Results Briefing Takeaway Key Takeaways April 14, 2025 03:19 PM GMT Zijin Mining Group | Asia Pacific 1Q25 recap: Zijin said higher management expenses YoY were due primarily to higher employee bonuses under good FY24 earnings. The gain from fair value is mainly from stock investments. Hedging policy: For smelting business, Zijin allows for 25% maximum net exposure for copper and zinc, and 50% net exposure for gold and silver. For mining business, the maximum hedging ratio is 8%. Zijin is slowing const ...

越南调研纪要：关税影响；订单量未变，短期内加速交 付；长期内市场份额有望增长 4 月 9 日-11 日，我们组织调研了越南（河内、海防和胡志明市）的中国 纺织企业，实地考察了头部纺织/OEM 厂商（包括互太纺织、维珍妮、 超盈国际、新澳股份和华孚时尚），并与工厂厂长、高级管理人员和行 业专家进行了交流。交流纪要如下：1）本年迄今订单量保持强劲，产能 利用率保持在较高水平，但由于近年来中国向越南转移的产能增加，关 键问题是招工；2）目前美国客户尚未就订单作出反应（例如削减订单、 价格谈判等），尤其是耐克、阿迪、维密等大客户，但客户要求现有订 单在 90 天内（46%额外关税的暂停征收期）加速交付；3）鉴于美国和 越南正在积极谈判，越南纺织企业管理层对关税问题仍持谨慎乐观态度 ；虽然管理层认为全球需求存在不确定性，但预计长期内市场份额料将 增长；4）面对额外的关税负担，低个位数的均价折扣或许是 OEM 厂商 能够接受的最高水平。4 月 3 日以来，OEM 厂商股价大幅下跌（申洲国 际跌逾 20%；超盈国际跌逾 30%；同期恒生指数跌 8.5%），我们认为回 调幅度已过度。我们维持对头部 OEM 厂商（超盈国际、申 ...

April 14, 2025 08:40 AM GMT China Auto Dealers | Asia Pacific Is the Worst Behind? | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Zhongsheng Group Holdings (0881.HK) | From | To | | Price Target | HK$17.00 | HK$15.00 | | China Yongda Automobiles Services (3669.HK) | | | | Price Target | HK$2.50 | HK$2.40 | | China MeiDong Auto Holdings Ltd (1268.HK) | | | | Price Target | HK$2.10 | HK$2.20 | Dealer new car margin for luxury ICE brands will remain negative in 2025, and the potential import tariff could exacerb ...

April 14, 2025 11:00 PM GMT Geely Automobile Holdings | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed Updated Components EPS Bull Base Bear Scenarios Risks to Price Target / Rating Risk Reward for Geely Automobile Holdings (0175.HK) has been updated. Reason for change We lower our 2025 earnings estimate by 14% to Rmb17bn to reflect Geely's latest accounting change, where it now excludes the Rmb6.47bn non-operating gain from ZK-Lynk integration; meanwhile, Rmb2-2.3bn FX gain in 1Q25 will partially offset th ...

Monthly Databook: Higher 2Q25 iPhone/iPad Builds amid Tariff Uncertainties Key Takeaways We raise our 2Q25 iPhone build estimates by 4mn units to 45mn units (-10% QoQ, +15% YoY) vs. historically 15-25% QoQ decline in 2Q. This is again to keep legacy model stocking amid tariff uncertainties, even off a relatively high base in 1Q. This is not a reflection of demand strength. Regardless of tariff results, our latest supply chain checks suggest the assembly partners will accelerate production diversification, i ...

April 14, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific M Idea The Viewpoint: A Sharp, Synchronous Slowdown Even after exemptions kick in, the weighted average tariff on Asia has jumped from 4.8% in Jan-25 to 43.8%. We see a sharp step down in growth from 2Q25. Tariffs and tariff-related uncertainty are likely to persist for longer, weighing on trade, corporate confidence, capex, and the growth outlook. Key Takeaways In this report, we are lowering our growth projections for Asia. We also highlight where ...

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific April 14, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Monthly Databook: What's the latest on PCs? We provide some thoughts and feedback from companies, and update our April and 2Q notebook build forecasts. What are we hearing from OEMs and ODMs? Currently, not much. None of the companies (ODMs/OEMs) we spoke with have discussed forecast or demand changes as a result of the recent policy changes. ODMs told us visibility is down materially after the reciprocal tariffs were announced, wh ...

April 14, 2025 08:18 AM GMT Global Macro Strategist Fool Me Once, Shame On You. Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me Investors should prepare to be fooled many more times. Hold your convictions loosely and keep your stops tight. If a master plan exists – e.g., offset the negative economic impact of tariffs with fiscal and monetary easing – it's unlikely to work in the way the US administration envisions. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. Must reads from Global Macro Strategy Global FXEM Strategy: ...