Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP growth is expected to remain robust at 5.0-5.2% YoY for Q2 2025, supported by front-loading of exports and earlier government stimulus measures [4][32] - The property market continues to face challenges, with 30-city property sales declining by 10% YoY in June, and top 100 developers' contract sales volume down by 35% YoY [9][19] - Manufacturing PMIs show slight improvements, with NBS manufacturing PMI at 49.7 and Caixin manufacturing PMI at 50.4 in June, indicating a less negative growth momentum [7][10] Economic Data Summary - **GDP Growth**: Q2 GDP growth is projected at 5.0-5.2% YoY, with a slower sequential growth compared to Q1 [4][32] - **Industrial Production**: Expected to soften to 5.4% YoY in June, down from 5.8% YoY in May [3][16] - **Retail Sales**: Anticipated to moderate to 6% YoY in June, slightly down from 6.4% YoY in May [23] - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: Overall FAI growth likely recorded 3% YoY in June, with property investment declining by 10-12% YoY [20] - **Exports and Imports**: Export growth expected to edge down to 4% YoY in June, while imports may improve to 1% YoY [23] Sector-Specific Insights - **Manufacturing Sector**: NBS manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2ppt to 49.7 in June, with improvements in new orders and production indices [7][10] - **Property Sector**: The property market continues to weaken, with significant declines in sales and new starts [9][19] - **Automotive Sector**: Auto retail sales growth picked up to 24% YoY in June, driven by a low base and trade-in subsidies [23][38] High-Frequency Data - **PMIs**: NBS non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.5 in June, indicating slight growth in services, while construction PMI improved significantly [8] - **Port Activities**: Port cargo throughput growth moderated to 1% YoY in June, reflecting a slowdown in trade activities [9][17] - **Credit Growth**: Total social financing (TSF) credit growth likely edged up to 8.8% YoY in June, with new RMB loans at approximately RMB 1.85 trillion [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China requires not just new stimulus but a new growth algorithm, with a focus on structural rebalancing of its growth model [2][4] - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will be a critical test for the implementation of proposed reforms [13] Summary by Sections Fiscal System Reform - The current tax regime heavily relies on indirect taxes like VAT, which incentivizes overproduction and overcapacity [5] - Rebalancing fiscal transfers and reducing project-based subsidies are essential to support public goods and household income [6] Realigning Macro Targets - China's macroeconomic targets have historically focused on production, emphasizing GDP growth and industrial output while neglecting household consumption and social welfare [9] - A shift from a supply-centric approach to a demand-focused policy is necessary for economic rebalancing [9] Improving Statistics Mechanism and Revamping Official Performance Evaluations - The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) primarily uses a production approach for GDP accounting, which complicates the alignment of local officials' behavior with consumption metrics [10][11] - Redefining performance evaluations to prioritize household consumption and environmental quality is crucial for meaningful change [11] Institutional Challenges - Despite encouraging reform signals, there is significant institutional inertia that may hinder the implementation of new policies [12] - The 15th Five-Year Plan could institutionalize structural reforms, but it requires political will and bureaucratic alignment to succeed [13][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [7] Core Insights - In 1Q25, global ODM direct server shipments reached 1.86 million units, reflecting a 25% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) increase and a 50% year-over-year (y/y) increase, accounting for 47.4% of global server shipments [2][3] - The aggregate ODM direct server shipment value was US$59.6 billion, showing a 45% q/q increase and a 253% y/y increase, driven by strong demand for AI servers and high-ASP rack architecture [3][6] - The report highlights a preference for specific ODMs, including Hon Hai/FII, Wistron, Quanta, and Wiwynn, due to their strong performance and market share gains [6] Summary by Sections ODM Shipment Performance - ODM shipment units grew 25% q/q and shipment values grew 45% q/q in 1Q25 [1] - MiTAC experienced the highest growth in shipment units at +46% q/q [2] Market Share Analysis - Wiwynn led the major ODMs with a 22.6% market share, followed closely by Quanta at 22.5% [3][12] - Intel regained unit share to 47.0%, while AMD's share dropped to 36.4% [4][11] Regional Performance - The USA was the best-performing region with a 67% y/y growth in shipment units, accounting for 74% of aggregate ODM direct shipments [5][10] Stock Implications - The strong demand for general servers from cloud services contributed to unit share gains for Quanta and Wiwynn, with expectations of continued revenue growth for major ODMs in the upcoming quarters [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the US-Vietnam trade deal Core Insights - The US-Vietnam trade deal announced by President Trump includes a 20% tariff on goods sent to the US from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on transshipments, while allowing US products to enter Vietnam at zero tariff [1] - The announced 20% tariff is at the low end of local expectations in Vietnam, where communities anticipated a range of 20%-25% [2] - Vietnam is expected to further open its market to US products, particularly in sectors like automobiles and energy, which aligns with prior expectations [3] - The classification of "transshipment" goods and the rules surrounding it are critical to understanding the economic impact of the trade deal [4] - A product-specific exemption list is anticipated to significantly affect the overall tariff landscape, with Vietnam's exposure to consumer electronics potentially leading to lower effective tariffs [6] Summary by Sections Trade Deal Details - The trade deal allows Vietnam to provide total market access to the US, which is expected to benefit the sales of US products, particularly SUVs [1] - Vietnam has already begun lowering import tariffs on various products, including automobiles and LNG, prior to the US tariff announcement [3] Tariff Implications - Products with high Vietnam content may face lower tariffs, with those having 100% Vietnam content potentially facing tariffs as low as 10% [2] - The effective average incremental tariff against Vietnam has been reduced to around 9% due to product-specific exemptions, significantly lower than the initially announced 43% [6] Market Access and Economic Impact - The easing of administrative processes for US companies in Vietnam is expected to enhance market access and stimulate growth [3] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring further details regarding financial market access for US and international capital [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on China Longyuan Power (916 HK) with a price target of HK$7.20 [28][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a projected ~19% growth in Longyuan's wind power generation for June 2025, driven by improved wind speeds, which is significantly higher than the ~10% organic capacity growth expected for FY24 [4][6][29]. - The analysis employs machine learning techniques to predict monthly power generation, achieving an average accuracy of ~95% [19][28]. - The report identifies trading opportunities based on the variance between predicted generation growth and trailing capacity growth, suggesting a long-short strategy could yield an average annual return of ~8.5% from 2019 to 2024 [4][15][19]. Summary by Sections Wind Power Generation Forecast - Longyuan's wind power generation for June 2025 is estimated at ~5.0 billion kWh, reflecting a ~19% year-over-year growth [6][24]. - The report notes that monthly wind speed volatility significantly impacts generation and share price performance, with historical monthly growth ranging from -19.4% to +28.6% [9][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that investors can utilize predictions to assess the likelihood of irregular events in monthly generation releases, recommending a trading strategy based on deviations greater than 5% from trailing capacity growth [15][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of accurate power generation forecasts for trading opportunities ahead of generation statistic releases [14][19]. Company Analysis - Longyuan is recognized as the largest and most established wind farm operator in China, with a total consolidated wind installed capacity of 27.8 GW as of the end of 2023 [29][30]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for Longyuan due to secular capacity growth driven by China's carbon-neutrality goals and an increasing mix of grid-parity projects [28][29]. Valuation - The price target of HK$7.20 is based on a target P/BV of 0.75x, reflecting Longyuan's lower gearing compared to Datang RE [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The first half of 2025 saw a volatile market, but equity markets rebounded significantly after April 2, with the S&P 500 returning 6.2%, MSCI Europe returning 23.7%, and KOSPI leading with a return of 40.9% [2] - The US dollar experienced its worst first half since 1973, while Brent crude oil prices rallied by 9.4% [5][2] - Credit markets showed resilience, with US high yield (HY) total returns at 4.6% and EUR HY at 2.7% [2] Performance Summary - Global equities saw significant returns, with the S&P 500 at 6.2%, MSCI Europe at 23.7%, and KOSPI at 40.9% [12] - Fixed income performance included US IG total returns at 4.2% and US HY at 4.6% [12] - The US dollar depreciated, with notable currency appreciation against it, including EUR by 13.9% and JPY by 11.1% [12] Technicals - Gross issuance in developed markets (DM) for high yield (HY) and investment grade (IG) fell by 8% and 10% respectively compared to the 2024 run rate [3] - There were outflows from US equities and inflows into fixed income assets, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3] Sentiment Analysis - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) signaled a risk-off approach in mid-June but returned to neutral by the end of the month [4] - Volatility, as measured by the VIX, decreased to four-month lows after a spike due to geopolitical tensions [4] Market Review & Trends - The report highlights a mixed performance across sectors, with technology leading global equity sectors while consumer staples lagged [2] - The report also notes a significant decline in US equity demand, benefiting European stocks [14] Valuations - Current P/E ratios for major indices include S&P 500 at 24.4 and MSCI Europe at 15.9, indicating varying levels of valuation across regions [24] - The report provides insights into forward P/E ratios, with communication services at 20.1 for ACWI and 20.6 for the US [26] Fixed Income Markets - US 10Y yields are at 4.23%, with high yield spreads at 290 basis points, reflecting the current credit market conditions [29] - The report indicates that US HY total returns are at 4.6%, while EUR HY is at 2.7% [29] FX & Commodity Markets - The report notes significant appreciation of various currencies against the USD, with EUR up 13.9% and JPY up 11.1% [32] - Commodity performance includes Brent crude oil rising by 9.4% and gold prices showing a notable increase [32]

中国 证券研究 2025 年 6 月 29 日 中国汽车行业 小米 Yu7 SUV - 中国电车市场的"拉布布"？ 除了女性买家外，我们还惊讶地发现，我们在店内遇到的几位客户仅 仅因为 6 月 26 日在线上观看了产品发布会，便下了订单。他们大多选 择中高端版本（约 28 万元人民币和 33 万元人民币）而非入门级版本 （25 万元人民币）。 3. 中国电车市场中的"拉布布"现象？近期，泡泡玛特（由尹贺覆盖） 生产的玩具拉布布在中国和海外市场需求旺盛，一部分原因是产品稀 缺。小米也面临产能限制。我们与门店销售人员的交流显示，Yu7 将 分析师声明及重要披露，包括非美国分析师披露，见第 7 页。 摩根大通与其研究报告所覆盖的公司开展业务，或寻求与这些公司开展业务。因此，投资者应意识到其中可能存在 利益冲突，进而可能会影响本报告的客观性。投资者在做出投资决策时，本报告之观点应仅作为投资者的考虑因素 之一。 亚太汽车行业研究主管 证券分析师: 赖以哲 AC (86-21) 6106 6353 nick.yc.lai@jpmorgan.com 登记编号: S1730520030008 证券分析师: 沈佳捷, CFA ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" rating for the Greater China Semiconductors industry, indicating expected performance in line with the broader market benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for AI glasses, driven by successful product launches such as Ray-Ban Meta and the new Oakley Meta HSTN and Xiaomi AI glasses, which are expected to increase demand for semiconductors [2][3]. - Key beneficiaries in the semiconductor sector include OmniVision, Himax, MediaTek, and Universal Scientific Industries, which are positioned to gain from the growing AI glasses market [2][23]. Summary by Sections AI Glasses Market Developments - The report notes that the features of AI glasses, particularly AI LLM interaction, are likely to contribute to their success [2]. - The Oakley Meta HSTN is designed for sports use and features Qualcomm's AR1 SoC, a 12MP camera, and an improved battery life of eight hours compared to four hours for Ray-Ban Meta [3][13]. - Xiaomi's AI glasses, priced from Rmb1,999 (~US$277), utilize a dual-chip design for enhanced performance and have a battery life of 8.6 hours, supporting 2K video recording [4][12]. Semiconductor Supply Chain - Qualcomm remains a leader in the AI glasses market, with SoCs accounting for approximately 40% of the bill of materials (BoM), which could lead to more affordable AI glasses [5][20]. - The report anticipates an 80% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the SoC total addressable market (TAM) for AI glasses from 2024 to 2028 [33]. - The total addressable market for camera image sensors (CIS) in AI glasses is projected to grow to US$273 million by 2028 [27]. Stock Implications - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating on MediaTek due to its advanced designs for headset SoCs, while OmniVision and Himax are also expected to benefit from the AI glasses trend [23]. - System-in-package technology is anticipated to enhance semiconductor component density in smart glasses, potentially benefiting Universal Scientific Industries [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for TSMC based on strong demand in the AI supply chain [2][3][4]. Core Insights - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is projected to grow over 30% year-over-year, reaching approximately 90-95k by 2026, which is positive for both Nvidia and AI ASIC supply chains [2][3][4]. - There is strong demand for AI applications in China, but hardware supply constraints are a significant bottleneck [3][4]. - The report highlights a bullish sentiment among investors regarding AI, with key concerns focused on potential demand issues and alternative investments beyond Nvidia [2][3]. Summary by Sections TSMC Capacity and Demand - TSMC's CoWoS total capacity is expected to be around 90-95k in 2026, indicating a 33% growth from 70k at the end of 2025 [2][3][8]. - The CoWoS-L capacity may expand to 68k, reflecting strong demand for Blackwell and Rubin chips [2][3][8]. AI Supply Chain Insights - Chinese AI developers are aware of Nvidia's B30 chips, with foundry wafer orders totaling 2 million units in the second half of 2025, but no confirmed purchase orders have been made [3][4]. - If B30 shipments to China are not realized, developers may shift to Huawei chips, although availability remains uncertain [3][4]. ASIC Design Services - Alchip is expected to be the sole source for Trainium3 XPU, with revenue anticipated to ramp up significantly in 2026 [4][5]. - Marvell's focus will be on "XPU-attach" chips, and the longevity of Trainium2 will impact its growth in 2026 [4][5]. AI Capex and Market Sentiment - The top four US hyperscalers are projected to generate $550 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing investments in AI-related data centers [31][32]. - The report anticipates a 43% year-over-year growth in cloud capex for 2025, up from a previous forecast of 39% [41][42].

Investment Rating - The Clean Tech industry in North America is rated as "In-Line" [7]. Core Insights - Initial perceptions of the Senate's reconciliation bill were bearish, but subsequent feedback indicates several positive aspects, particularly regarding utility-scale renewables and tax credits [5][9]. - The bill's provisions for projects that have already commenced construction allow them to retain tax credits as originally planned, which is a significant positive for large developers [10]. - There is an expectation of increased demand as developers may rush to meet the 2027 in-service deadline to claim tax credits [11]. - Confidence in power purchase agreement (PPA) prices is high, suggesting that project returns for renewables will remain intact even after tax credits are eliminated [12]. - First Solar (FSLR) is expected to benefit from the full stack of manufacturing tax credits, which could add significant value to its shares [13]. - Clarity on residential solar leasing eligibility has improved, allowing projects to receive tax credits through the end of 2027, positively impacting companies like Sunrun (RUN), Solaredge Technologies (SEDG), and Enphase Energy (ENPH) [14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The Clean Tech industry is currently experiencing a shift in investor perception due to the latest Senate bill, which has shown some incremental positive feedback compared to earlier drafts [5][9]. Company-Specific Insights - Array Technologies (ARRY.O) is rated "Equal-weight" with a price of $5.90 [69]. - Bloom Energy (BE.N) is rated "Overweight" with a price of $23.92 [69]. - First Solar (FSLR.O) is rated "Overweight" with a price of $165.54, benefiting from potential tax credits [69]. - Enphase Energy (ENPH.O) is rated "Underweight" with a price of $39.65 [69]. - Sunrun (RUN.O) is rated "Equal-weight" with a price of $8.18, positively impacted by residential solar leasing provisions [69].