Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the equity market for a 6-12 month horizon, indicating a positive investment rating [2][4]. Core Insights - The equity market has shown resilience since April, driven by fundamental factors rather than mere speculation [2][4]. - Earnings revisions breadth has improved significantly, rising from -25% in mid-April to -5%, suggesting strong potential for future equity returns [4][11]. - The expectation of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in the upcoming year is anticipated to provide a tailwind for equity valuations [4][31]. - The report highlights a shift in earnings growth outpacing economic growth, a reversal from previous trends [4][15]. Summary by Sections Earnings Revisions - Earnings revisions breadth has seen a V-shaped recovery, indicating a positive trend for equity prices [4][12]. - The recovery is primarily driven by upward revisions rather than a reduction in negative revisions, which historically correlates with stronger market returns [11][15]. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The report anticipates the Fed will cut rates seven times next year, which is expected to positively influence equity valuations [4][31]. - Early signs suggest the equity market is already pricing in these expected cuts, which historically leads to strong performance during such cycles [4][31]. Geopolitical and Policy Dynamics - Recent geopolitical events, including a decrease in crude oil prices by 14% since June 19, have reduced risks to the business cycle [4][31]. - The potential exclusion of Section 899 from the "Big, Beautiful Bill" is seen as a positive development for foreign direct investment in the US [5][31]. Corporate Spending and Economic Indicators - Corporate leaders are moving forward with business decisions despite uncertainties, indicating a shift towards proactive management [21][24]. - Capital expenditure (capex) is on the rise, driven by AI investments and favorable tax incentives, suggesting a positive outlook for corporate earnings [24][26]. Market Performance and Sector Ratings - The report emphasizes that large-cap quality stocks, particularly the "Mag 7," are leading the market recovery, while small caps lag behind [15][21]. - Sector recommendations include an overweight rating for Financials and Industrials, while Consumer Discretionary is underweight [49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is cautious [7]. Core Insights - Thermal coal prices remained unchanged with QHD 5500 at Rmb660/t, CCI 5500 at Rmb615/t, and BSPI at Rmb663/t as of June 27 [7][10]. - Coking coal prices saw a slight increase, with Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth price up 0.9% WoW to Rmb565/t [2][10]. - Inventory destocking continued, with QHD inventory decreasing 2.2% WoW to 5.65 million tons [2][7]. - Elevated rainfall in June, exceeding 1,000mm, may support hydro power generation recovery, potentially reducing thermal coal demand [3][7]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - QHD 5500 kcal/kg thermal coal price remained flat at Rmb660/t, while CCI 5500 kcal/kg was at Rmb619, showing a 0.7% increase WoW [7]. - Seaborne prices for NEWC thermal coal were flat at US$107/t, down 16.4% YTD [7]. - Coking coal prices remained stable for FOR at Rmb1,130/t and QLD at US$179/t [2][7]. Inventory Levels - QHD inventory decreased by 2.2% WoW to 5.65 million tons, marking a 14% decrease YTD [2][7]. - Bohai Rim ports inventory also saw a decline of 2.1% WoW to 28.2 million tons [2]. Weather Impact - China's average precipitation in June reached over 1,000mm, which could positively impact hydro power generation and negatively affect thermal coal demand [3][7]. Company Ratings - China Shenhua Energy has an Overweight rating, while Yankuang Energy Group Co Ltd has an Underweight rating [58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by sustained strong AI spending intentions from CIOs [7]. Core Insights - The 2025 CIO Survey indicates that approximately 68% of CIOs plan to allocate more than 5% of their IT budgets to AI compute hardware within three years, up from around 25% currently [7]. - AI-related compute spending as a percentage of CIO IT budgets is projected to rise to 15.9% in three years, reflecting a growth rate of 41%, which surpasses the semiconductor revenue growth outlook of 30-35% [7]. - Cloud spending is also expected to increase to 38% of IT budgets over the next five years, indicating a healthy business environment for Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) [7]. - Despite some caution regarding spending in the second half of 2025 due to geopolitical dynamics, the overall sentiment remains positive for a multi-year spending cycle in AI infrastructure [7]. Summary by Sections TMT Themes - Telecom sector saw a net increase in long positions, with a low positioning ratio indicating potential for growth [3]. - AI Data Centers have reached all-time high positioning, reflecting strong demand [3]. Semiconductor Insights - Chroma ATE is expected to secure metrology toolset orders from TSMC, indicating confidence in its market position [10]. - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a resurgence in demand for AI servers, driven by Nvidia GPUs and AWS ASICs [20]. Market Dynamics - Hedge funds have shown a modest increase in net buying, with North America being a significant contributor [2]. - The report highlights a potential risk of de-grossing among equity long/short funds, which could impact market dynamics [4].

Investment Ratings - Harvey Norman (HVN AU) is rated Overweight (OW) with a price target of A$6.50 [11][27][30] - Wesfarmers (WES AU) is rated Underweight (UW) with a price target of A$67.00 [19][30] Core Insights - Harvey Norman is expected to benefit from a recovering housing cycle, with earnings projected to turn positive in FY25 after previous declines [11][12][27] - Wesfarmers' core businesses, Bunnings and Kmart, are stable but mature, with limited growth potential and high valuation multiples already reflecting their quality [19][30] Summary by Sections Harvey Norman - The investment thesis highlights an improving outlook from a low base, with earnings declines moderating and expected sales recovery [11][27] - Key drivers include a recovering housing cycle, resilient franchisee sales momentum, and high operating leverage to sales acceleration [12][27] - Valuation remains attractive at a FY25E P/E multiple of approximately 14x, with a significant discount to broader industrials [4][27] Wesfarmers - The investment thesis indicates an Underweight rating due to high valuation multiples that do not justify current earnings growth expectations [19][30] - Key challenges include capped sales growth for Bunnings and Kmart, ongoing losses at Mt Holland in a weak lithium market, and limited organic growth opportunities [20][30] - The valuation is stretched at around 33x FY26E PER, despite recent earnings downgrades [9][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overall positive outlook on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereign credit and maintaining a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. Core Insights - The report projects a first Fed cut in December 2025, with expectations for 2-year Treasury yields to reach 3.50% and 10-year yields to reach 4.35% by year-end 2025 [11][13]. - Global oil demand is tracking year-over-year growth of 410 thousand barrels per day (kbd), but is 130 kbd lower than the forecasted expansion for June [7]. - The dollar smile phenomenon persists, indicating that the dollar's strength is contingent on the nature of events driving defensive behavior [7]. US Rates - Front-end yields have declined to 2-month lows, influenced by administration criticism of the Fed, with a healthy labor market indicated by June employment data [3][16]. - Tactical positions include entering 2-year shorts and adding steepeners in the 5s/7s sector while hedging with flatteners in the 10s/30s sector [19][21]. International Rates - Yield curves have bull steepened across most developed markets, with US rates outperforming due to a sharp drop in oil prices and dovish Fed commentary [4][47]. - Euro rates have bear steepened, driven by updated German fiscal numbers and NATO defense spending agreements [4][47]. Commodities - Jewelry demand weakness is not expected to significantly impact gold prices, although vigilance is advised for potential shifts to other metals [7]. Currencies - The report maintains a bearish stance on the USD, projecting key targets for various currency pairs, including EUR/USD at 1.20-1.22 and GBP/USD at 1.42 [66][85]. - The dollar's weakening is anticipated due to moderation in US growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policies outside the US [66][71]. Emerging Markets - The report suggests staying overweight on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereigns, with a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. - US policies are expected to dominate the emerging market outlook in the second half of the year, with a slower growth, no-recession base case [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer sentiment toward the economy and household finances has stabilized amid ongoing tariff concerns, with inflation remaining the primary concern for consumers [1][7] - The report indicates a slight decline in consumer confidence regarding the economic outlook, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% anticipating deterioration, resulting in a NET score of -10% [7][61] - Concerns over tariffs remain elevated but stable, with 39% of consumers very concerned, down from 43% in April [7][14] - The spending outlook remains stable, with 32% of consumers planning to spend more in the next month, yielding a NET of +15% [19][84] - Travel intentions are strong, with approximately 60% of consumers planning to travel in the next six months, reflecting optimism in leisure travel [117] Consumer Sentiment - Inflation is the top concern for consumers at 57%, down from 59% last month, while political concerns have risen to 43% [8][37] - Geopolitical conflict concerns increased to 31% this month from 21% last month [7][8] - Low-income consumers are more worried about paying rent/mortgage and debts, while upper-income consumers focus on investment concerns [9][42] Macro Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is slightly down, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% expecting deterioration, leading to a NET score of -10% [61][71] - The outlook for household finances remains positive, with 43% expecting improvement and a NET score of +16% [64][70] Tariff Impact - 39% of consumers report being very concerned about tariffs, with 33% planning to cut back on spending in response [14][19] - The level of concern about tariffs varies significantly by political affiliation, with 63% of liberals very concerned compared to 23% of conservatives [14][50] Spending Intentions - The short-term spending outlook is stable, with 32% of consumers expecting to spend more next month, yielding a NET of +15% [84][88] - 30% of consumers reported making a major purchase in the past three months, with 58% planning a major purchase in the next three months [97][98] Travel Intentions - Approximately 60% of consumers plan to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the most common reason [117][119]

Investment Ratings - Infineon Technologies: Positive Catalyst Watch with a price target of €40.30 [4] - Aldar Properties: Overweight with a price target of AED 11.00 [13] - Hapvida: Overweight with a price target of R$60.00 [14] - Nubank: Overweight with a price target of $16.00 [34] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry, particularly analog semiconductors, is expected to see potential upside due to easing inventory corrections, especially in China, with STMicro and Infineon positioned to benefit [3][4] - The oil and gas sector in India is experiencing margin upgrades due to declining crude prices, with OMCs like BPCL and IOCL favored for investment [6] - The consumer sector in India shows cautious optimism, with a focus on companies with strong revenue growth visibility and execution capabilities [7] - The TMT sector highlights strong growth expectations for Coforge and Bharti, driven by large deals and mid-teens EBITDA CAGR [8] - The ASEAN Power Grid initiative is gaining traction, with TNB in Malaysia identified as a key beneficiary [9] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - Analog semiconductors are expected to outperform due to inventory corrections easing, particularly for STMicro and Infineon, which are placed on Positive Catalyst Watch [3][4] Oil and Gas Sector - The decline in crude prices is leading to significant margin upgrades for Indian OMCs, with BPCL and IOCL as preferred stocks [6] Consumer Sector - Demand trends indicate cautious optimism, with a focus on companies that demonstrate good revenue growth visibility and execution [7] TMT Sector - Top investment ideas include Coforge, Eternal, and Bharti, with expectations of strong revenue growth and margin expansion [8] ASEAN Power Grid - The APG initiative is expected to accelerate, benefiting TNB in Malaysia and Chinese power equipment players [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" industry view for the China Property sector [8] Core Insights - Major developers' sales have seen a significant decline, with contracted sales for 30 tracked developers dropping 32% year-on-year in June, indicating a continued sluggishness expected in 3Q due to weakened resident sentiment and reduced landbank [2][3] - The top 50 and top 100 developers recorded year-to-date sales declines of 11% each as of June 2025, with June sales showing a deeper decline compared to May [3] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) outperformed in sales despite year-on-year declines, with notable increases from C&D and Jinmao, while other developers like Zhongnan and CIFI faced over 55% declines [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The report highlights that the sales performance of major developers has worsened, with the top 50 and top 100 developers experiencing declines of 26% year-on-year in June, compared to smaller declines in May [3] - SOEs showed resilience with C&D and Jinmao reporting increases of 29% and 17% year-on-year, while several semi-SOE developers faced significant declines [4] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that 3Q sales will remain weak year-on-year, influenced by high inventory levels and cautious consumer sentiment regarding home prices [5] - The report suggests that the housing policy response may be muted until a notable softening in housing prices occurs, which has not yet been observed [5] Investment Strategy - The report advises a defensive and selective investment approach, recommending quality SOEs with good visibility, such as CR Land and C&D, as well as high-dividend-yield plays like C&D and Greentown Management [6]

Investment Ratings - USD View: Bearish with a bearish skew [2][21] - EUR View: Bullish with a bullish skew [3][22] - GBP View: Neutral with a bullish skew [4][23] - JPY View: Bullish with a bullish skew [5][24] - CHF View: Neutral with a bullish skew [6][25] - NOK View: Neutral with a bearish skew [7][26] - SEK View: Neutral with a bearish skew [8][27] - AUD View: Neutral with a bullish skew [9][28] - NZD View: Neutral with a bullish skew [10][29] - CAD View: Bearish with a bearish skew [11][30] Core Insights - Dollar weakness is a prevailing theme in G10 FX views, driven by US growth and rate convergence with the rest of the world, alongside increased FX hedging [21][22] - The EUR/USD is expected to rise to 1.20 and beyond, supported by European investors hedging US assets [3][22] - GBP is seen as constructive due to its carry-to-vol ratio and low perceived trade tension risks [4][23] - JPY may benefit from US-Japan trade uncertainties and lower US terminal rate expectations [5][24] - The CHF is expected to face downside risks due to yield compression despite low inflation [6][25] - The NOK is viewed with a bearish skew due to lower oil price risks and rate headwinds [7][26] - SEK is anticipated to react to incoming economic data with a bearish bias [8][27] - AUD fundamentals remain strong, indicating potential for performance catch-up against the USD [9][28] - NZD's downside against AUD is limited due to minimal yield advantage [10][29] - CAD is recommended for short positions against CHF due to broad USD weakness and negative terms of trade [11][30] Summary by Sections USD - The USD is expected to weaken as growth and rates converge with the rest of the world, with a risk premium of approximately 6% due to increased FX hedging [63][65][68] - The current account deficit stands at 4.6% of GDP, indicating a widening trend [68][70] EUR - The EUR/USD is projected to rise significantly, with options markets underpricing the potential for it to reach 1.25 [99][101] - Europe's current account surplus is increasing, primarily from goods and services [104][106] GBP - GBP's strength is supported by a favorable carry-to-vol ratio and limited trade surplus with the US [135][137] - The UK's current account deficit is stable but financed by more volatile forms of investment [140][142] JPY - JPY may gain from continued weakness in US economic data affecting terminal rate pricing [171][173] - Japan's current account remains positive, with a narrowing trade deficit [176][178] CHF - The CHF is expected to strengthen due to low inflation and yield compression potential [206][209] - Switzerland's current account surplus is high, driven by a strong goods surplus [212][217] NOK - The NOK faces downside risks despite a higher neutral rate estimate from the Norges Bank [238][240] - Norway's current account surplus benefits from oil and gas exports [244][246] SEK - SEK is sensitive to yield differentials, with potential upside risks against EUR [269][271] - Sweden's current account surplus is improving, driven by trade [274][276] AUD - AUD's strong fundamentals suggest a potential catch-up against peer currencies [299][300] - Australia's current account has shifted to a deficit due to increased imports [305][307] NZD - NZD's downside potential against AUD is limited due to a lack of yield advantage [336][338] - New Zealand's current account deficit is narrowing after a peak in 2022 [341][343] CAD - CAD is expected to decline against CHF due to unfavorable terms of trade [371][373] - Canada's current account deficit has narrowed, primarily due to a lower income deficit [378][380]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on steel equities, suggesting to wait for further concrete policies before investing [5]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent government initiatives aimed at curbing excess competition and reducing capacity in the steel sector, highlighting a historical context of similar measures that have led to short-term price increases followed by declines [5]. - Investors are currently pricing in a potential "supply-side reform 2.0," but the report emphasizes the lack of concrete policies such as mandatory production cuts and consolidation of unprofitable mills, which are necessary for a more bullish outlook [5]. Summary by Sections Historical Policy Announcements - The report includes a table detailing historical policy announcements related to phasing out outdated capacities, showing various impacts on steel prices over different time frames [3]. - For instance, a symposium in January 2016 led to a 1.2% drop in rebar prices the following day, while subsequent announcements in February and April 2016 saw price increases of 1.0% and 0.3%, respectively [3]. Market Performance - Steel shares experienced significant fluctuations, with increases of 5% to 91% noted on July 2, attributed to government meetings and production cut notices in Tangshan [5]. - The report indicates that historical reactions to similar government announcements typically resulted in a 2% increase in share prices the following day, but declines of 2-5% after a month [5]. Global Steel Comparisons - A comparative analysis of global steel companies is provided, showcasing market capitalization, enterprise value, and performance metrics such as EV/EBITDA and PE ratios [7]. - For example, Baosteel has a market cap of $21.1 billion and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.0, while U.S. Steel Corp has a market cap of $12.4 billion with a PE ratio of 26.2 [7].