2024 年 11 月 04 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 本周钢材供需双降、库存持续去化,钢价震荡偏强运行 钢铁行业周度报告 钢铁 投资评级：推荐 (维持) 分析师:张炜 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话: 021-20321304 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 研究助理:吴晗 邮箱：wuhan@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话: 021-20515355 行业走势图(2024年11月01日) 8000 - 钢铁指数 沪深300 - 6000 4000 2000 资料未添: iFind, 华宝证券研究创新部 相关研究报告 1、《本周铁矿供需双增,钢厂进口矿维 持低库存运行—铁矿行业周废报告》 2024-10-29 2、《钢材库存去化速度放缓,板材消费 环比小幅增加 0.5%—钢铁行业周度报 ୫》2024-10-28 3、《9月钢材库存持续去化，政策窗口 开启 利于改善行业盈利—钢铁９月月报》 2024-10-24 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 投资要点 ଥ供应：本周（10.26-11.1）钢铁供给收缩，五大材产量环比下滑 1.51%。本 期日均铁水产量（样本数 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry [1]. Core Insights - The annualized yield for cash management wealth management products is currently at 1.69%, which has decreased by over 50 basis points (BP) year-to-date [1][7]. - The average annualized yield for non-cash fixed income wealth management products over the past month is 2.20%, down 21 BP from the previous week [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, a decrease of 4 BP from the previous week [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years has increased by 1 BP to 3.77% [2][7]. - The total scale of maturing wealth management products from October 21 to October 27, 2024, is 258 billion, with an average compliance rate of 53%, down 5 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Management Products - As of October 27, 2024, the annualized yield for cash management products is 1.69%, a decrease of 4 BP from the previous week [1][7]. - The annualized yield for money market funds is 1.51%, down 3 BP from the previous week, with the yield gap between cash management products and money market funds narrowing by 1 BP to 18 BP [1][7]. 2. Performance Review of Wealth Management Products - The annualized yield for non-cash fixed income wealth management products over the past month is 2.20%, a decrease of 21 BP [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, down 4 BP [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years has increased by 1 BP to 3.77% [2][7]. 3. Maturity and Compliance Status - From October 21 to October 27, 2024, the total scale of maturing wealth management products is 258 billion, with an average compliance rate of 53%, down 5 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. - The compliance rate for closed-end products is notably higher at 82%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The annualized yield for cash management financial products over the past 7 days is 1.69%, which represents a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous week [6][8]. - The annualized yield for money market funds is 1.51%, down 3 basis points from the previous week, with the yield gap between cash management products and money market funds narrowing to 18 basis points, a reduction of 1 basis point from the prior week [6][8]. - The annualized yield for non-cash fixed income financial products over the past month is 2.20%, down 21 basis points from the previous week [2][6]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [2][6]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years is 3.77%, which has increased by 1 basis point from the previous week [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Management Product 7-Day Annualized Yield - As of October 27, 2024, the 7-day annualized yield for cash management financial products is 1.69%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous week [6][8]. 2. Performance Review of Financial Products Issued by Financial Companies - The report indicates that the annualized yield for non-cash fixed income financial products over the past month is 2.20%, down 21 basis points from the previous week [2][6]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [2][6]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years is 3.77%, which has increased by 1 basis point from the previous week [2][6]. 3. Maturity and Compliance Status of Financial Products - From October 21 to October 27, 2024, the total scale of maturing products from financial companies is 258 billion, with an average compliance rate of 53%, a decrease of 5 percentage points from the previous week [2][8]. - Financial companies with a 100% compliance rate include Hengfeng Wealth Management, BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, and Goldman Sachs ICBC Wealth Management [2][8]. - Closed-end products show a better compliance rate, averaging 82%, which is higher than the overall compliance rate [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The domestic automotive market is experiencing strong growth in new energy vehicles (NEVs), with production and sales in September 2024 reaching 1.307 million and 1.287 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 48.8% and 42.3% [2][39] - The first domestic all-solid-state lithium battery production line has officially commenced operations, representing a significant advancement in battery technology with higher safety and energy density compared to traditional liquid lithium batteries [2][39] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Data Tracking 1.1. Upstream Materials - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 69,500 CNY/ton, down 1.42% from the previous week, while battery-grade lithium carbonate averages 72,500 CNY/ton, down 1.36% [9][10] - The market for lithium hydroxide is stable, with battery-grade prices ranging from 66,000 to 71,000 CNY/ton [14][15] 1.2. Midstream Materials - The price of ternary materials has decreased, with 523 single crystal materials priced at 108,500 CNY/ton, down 0.1 million CNY/ton, and 622 polycrystalline materials at 107,000 CNY/ton, down 0.2 million CNY/ton [17][18] - The negative electrode material market remains stable, with a reference price of 32,378 CNY/ton [21][23] 1.3. Downstream Cells - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is 0.46 CNY/Wh, while phosphate iron lithium cells are priced at 0.37 CNY/Wh, both remaining stable [37][38] - In September 2024, the total production of power and other batteries reached 111.3 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [37][38] 2. Industry Dynamics - The first all-solid-state lithium battery production line, built by Beijing Pure Lithium New Energy Technology Co., has a target capacity of 200 MWh, capable of charging 200,000 two-wheeled vehicles simultaneously [2][39][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended (Maintained)" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that both supply and demand for iron ore have increased, with iron ore prices experiencing fluctuations downward due to supply growth outpacing demand growth [3][4] - The average iron ore price index (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) for the week was $100 per ton, a decrease of $3.61 per ton or 3.48% compared to the previous week [3][6] - Steel mills are maintaining low inventory levels while port inventories are at a high level, indicating a potential supply pressure in the market [4][6] Supply Summary - For the week of October 19-25, 2024, iron ore supply from Australia and Brazil increased by 2.01% and 3.4% respectively, with total shipments to China reaching 19.268 million tons, a 5.83% increase [1][6] - The total port inventory of imported iron ore across 45 ports was 153 million tons, a 0.29% increase week-on-week and a 35.8% increase year-on-year [4][6] Demand Summary - The average daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel enterprises was 2.9084 million tons, a 0.66% increase week-on-week, while the average daily pig iron production rose to 2.3569 million tons, marking the eighth consecutive week of growth [2][6] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 88.48%, up by 0.49 percentage points, and the operating rate was 82.14%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points [2][6] Price and Profitability Summary - The report notes that despite the increase in production and consumption, the profitability of steel enterprises has declined to 64.94%, a decrease of 9.52 percentage points [2][6] - The high port inventories and the ongoing supply pressure are expected to limit the upward movement of iron ore prices, with macroeconomic sentiment likely to play a significant role in price fluctuations [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a slowdown in inventory destocking, with a slight increase in plate consumption by 0.5% week-on-week [1] - The overall supply of steel is expanding, while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward trend in steel prices and a rapid decline in profitability for steel companies [5] - The report highlights that the production of long products is increasing at a higher rate than that of flat products, indicating a shift in production focus [1][3] Summary by Sections Supply - The average daily pig iron output increased to 2.3569 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 0.57% [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces rose to 82.14%, up by 0.46 percentage points [1] - Total production of the five major steel products reached 8.8058 million tons, with long products increasing by 1.7% and flat products by 0.3% [1] Consumption - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 1.9%, primarily driven by a decline in long products [2] - Apparent consumption of long products totaled 3.3706 million tons, down 5.6%, while plate consumption increased slightly by 0.5% to 5.5674 million tons [2] Prices and Profitability - The comprehensive steel price index fell to 98.57 points, a decrease of 3.53 points week-on-week [2] - The profitability of steel companies dropped to 64.94%, a decline of 9.52 percentage points [2] - The profit margins for rebar turned negative, while hot-rolled products saw an expanded loss, and cold-rolled products remained profitable [4][5] Inventory - Total steel inventory (including social and factory inventory) was 12.5932 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1% [3] - Factory inventory increased by 3.7%, while social inventory decreased by 3.2%, indicating a mixed inventory trend [3] Industry News and Company Dynamics - Notable company reports include Nanjing Steel's revenue of 49.291 billion yuan and net profit of 1.753 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.31% [21] - Shagang Group reported a total revenue of 10.807 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.29% [22]

2024 年 10 月 27 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 政策继续发力，市场活力进一步释放 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 1、《震荡整固之后，双创再度大幅拉升 —策略周报》2024-10-20 2、《财政部传递"渐进式"加码信号， 夯实中长期慢牛基础—策略周报》 2024-10-13 3、《长假期间国内外大事速递—策略周 报》2024-10-07 4、《美联储降息落地，市场情绪边际改 善—策略周报》2024-09-22 5、《节前情绪低迷，量价再临冰点 —策 略周报》2024-09-17 投资要点 基本面回顾与资产配置展望：本周特朗普民调支持率上升，"特朗普交易"明显 升温，美元走强，美债收益率上行。不过当前美国多数关键摇摆州的支持率差距保 持在 2%以内，美国大选结果仍然具有不确定性。10 月 21 日 1 年期 LPR 和 5 年期以 上 LPR 报价均下调了 25 个基点。9 月以来政策发力仍在持续，此次降幅超出预 期，将对居民信贷和消费领域形成积极影响，年内 LPR 继续下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the magnesium industry [2]. Core Insights - The magnesium industry is experiencing a significant recovery in downstream demand, with the production of magnesium alloy ingots showing a notable increase. The average magnesium ingot price has risen to 19,577.89 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.95% increase month-on-month [1][2]. - The production of magnesium powder has increased by 6.08% to 8,212 tons, while the export price of magnesium powder has risen by 2.36% to 2,804.74 USD/ton [2]. - The automotive sector is driving demand, with national automobile production reaching 2,796,283 units in September, a 12.2% increase from the previous month [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Monthly Data Changes in the Magnesium Industry - The average price of raw coal in Shaanxi increased by 1.05% to 932.38 yuan/ton, while the operating rate decreased by 8.63% to 51.14% [5]. - The production cost of raw coal decreased by 1.57% to 1,302.85 yuan/ton [5]. - The production of primary magnesium increased by 0.74% to 76,920 tons, with a corresponding increase in average magnesium ingot prices [5]. 2. Monthly Data Trends in the Magnesium Industry - The report highlights a significant increase in imports and exports of magnesium products, with imports rising by 155.56% to 20.47 tons and exports increasing by 21.55% to 307.57 tons [5]. - The production of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.96% to 131,500 tons, indicating a recovery in demand from the automotive sector [5]. 3. Industry Outlook - The establishment of the largest rare earth production base in Baotou is expected to enhance resource recycling, including magnesium, carbon dioxide, and water, which may positively impact the magnesium industry [1]. - The report suggests focusing on magnesium production segments with low-carbon smelting technology and high-end magnesium alloy research advantages, particularly in the automotive and 3C markets [1].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: "Recommended" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Steel supply continued to decline in September, with demand showing a "peak season not booming" situation, leading to a slow recovery in steel production [8][19] - Despite a slight improvement in steel enterprise profitability, the overall profit margin remains below 10%, suppressing production enthusiasm among steel mills [2][3] - The macroeconomic policies introduced in late September are expected to gradually improve terminal demand for steel, providing upward momentum for steel prices [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. September Steel Supply and Demand - In September, crude steel production was 77.07 million tons, down 6.1% year-on-year, while steel product output was 117.31 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year [8][11] - The average weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.76 million tons, down 7.5% year-on-year [12][13] - Inventory levels for various steel products decreased significantly, with rebar inventory down 30.3% compared to the end of August [10][11] 2. October Macroeconomic Policies - The introduction of favorable policies related to real estate is expected to stabilize the construction industry gradually [19][21] - Infrastructure investment growth remains relatively stable, with 2.3 trillion yuan in special bond funds available for use in the next three months [25][26] 3. Steel Mill Production and Raw Material Prices - Steel mills are experiencing slow recovery in production, with raw material prices showing a downward trend [3][4] - The average profit margin for steel mills improved slightly to 9.74% in September, but profitability remains a concern [2][3] 4. Improvement in Profitability - The average profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel products showed signs of narrowing losses, with rebar profit improving by over 200 yuan per ton [2][3] - As of October 18, the profitability of steel enterprises rebounded to 74.46%, indicating a potential increase in production enthusiasm [2][3] 5. Steel Price Trends - The steel price index for September was 91.26, down 2.6% month-on-month and down 16.3% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in prices [14][15] - Prices for long products showed better performance compared to flat products, with rebar prices increasing by 2.2% month-on-month [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The adjustment in deposit rates by major banks is aimed at stabilizing net interest margins while responding to market conditions [5][6] - The performance of wealth management products is stabilizing as the impact of bond market adjustments diminishes [2][11] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Rate Adjustment - On October 18, major state-owned banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates, with the interest rate for demand deposits dropping from 0.15% to 0.1% and term deposit rates decreasing by 25 basis points [5][6] - This marks the fifth reduction in deposit rates by major banks in 2023, with significant cuts in long-term deposit rates, totaling a cumulative reduction of 110 basis points for 3-year and 5-year deposits [5][6] 2. Cash Management Product 7-Day Annualized Yield - As of October 20, 2024, the 7-day annualized yield for cash management products was 1.73%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous week [8] - The yield for money market funds remained stable at 1.54%, resulting in a narrowing yield gap of 19 basis points between cash management products and money market funds [8] 3. Wealth Management Product Performance Review - As of October 20, 2024, the annualized yield for daily open fixed-income non-cash wealth management products was 2.41%, an increase of 24 basis points from the previous week [10] - The annualized yield for closed 6-12 month fixed-income wealth management products was 3.39%, up 14 basis points, while the yield for closed 1-3 year fixed-income products was 3.76%, an increase of 7 basis points [10] 4. Wealth Management Product Expiry and Compliance Rates - From October 14 to October 20, 2024, the scale of expired products from wealth management companies was 260.1 billion, with an average compliance rate of 58%, up 13 percentage points from the previous week [11][12] - The compliance rate for closed products was notably higher at 79%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [11][12]