Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, with prices slightly decreasing. The demand drop is slightly larger than the supply contraction, leading to a small decline in steel prices. The overall operation of the industry remains stable, with continuous inventory destocking [4][5] - The recent implementation of a debt reduction plan by the Ministry of Finance is expected to stimulate local infrastructure steel demand, which may positively impact market confidence and steel prices in the long term [2][5] Summary by Sections Supply - Steel supply has continued to contract, with daily molten iron output dropping to 2.3406 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons or 0.6% week-on-week. The overall production of the five major steel products is 8.6149 million tons, down 0.67% week-on-week [1][11] - The production of long products decreased by 3.68% to 3.2477 million tons, while flat products increased by 1.2% to 5.3672 million tons [1] Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased to 8.776 million tons, a reduction of 141,000 tons or 1.58% week-on-week. Long product consumption fell by 4.6%, while flat product consumption increased slightly by 0.25% [2][11] - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, medium-thick plate, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil saw respective week-on-week changes of -5.02%, -3.49%, -2.63%, 0.1%, and 5.75% [2] Prices and Profitability - The comprehensive steel price index is 98.89 points, down 0.6 points week-on-week. The price indices for rebar, wire rod, medium-thick plate, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are 3605.09, 3878.55, 3614.76, 3567.23, and 4155.85 yuan per ton, reflecting respective week-on-week changes of -1.4%, -1.15%, -0.38%, -0.1%, and 0.18% [2][11] - The profitability rate for steel enterprises is 59.74%, a slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points week-on-week. The losses for rebar have expanded, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products have seen improvements in profitability [4][5] Inventory - Total steel inventory (including social and factory inventory) is 12.1879 million tons, down 1.3% week-on-week. Factory inventory is 3.9887 million tons, down 2% week-on-week, while social inventory is 8.1992 million tons, down 1% week-on-week [3][11] - The inventory levels for long and flat products are 5.447 million tons and 6.7409 million tons, with week-on-week changes of 0.5% and -2.7% respectively [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the recent measures from the National People's Congress focus on debt resolution, which aligns with expectations and aims to enhance policy space for local governments to address issues such as corporate debts and employee wages [1][6][8] - The report indicates that while specific incremental details for other areas are not yet disclosed, positive signals have been released, suggesting that various policies are still under planning and research [1][6][8] - It is anticipated that the policy approach will be gradual rather than immediate, requiring comprehensive planning and deliberation, and leaving room for potential future measures [1][6][8] Group 2 - The report outlines key measures from the National People's Congress, including a one-time increase in local debt limits by 6 trillion yuan, with 2 trillion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026, and a continuous arrangement of 4 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt resolution [7][8] - The report highlights that there are ongoing efforts to support the real estate market through tax policies and to issue special government bonds to supplement the core capital of major state-owned banks [8][9] - Future fiscal policies are expected to be more robust, with plans to utilize increased deficit space, expand the issuance of special bonds, and enhance support for key areas such as technology innovation and public welfare [8][9] Group 3 - The report notes that the capital market is likely to maintain a high-risk preference, with the stock market expected to continue with a bullish outlook, while the bond market remains stable without immediate bearish risks [1][7][9] - A significant increase in trading activity is observed, with the average daily trading volume in the A-share market rising to 23,987 billion yuan, indicating a resurgence in market activity [10][17] - The report suggests that the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and the National People's Congress next year will provide more qualitative and quantitative information regarding policy directions [7][9]

Group 1: ESG Policy and News Tracking - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a "Sustainable Finance Action Plan" on October 21, 2024, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2030 for banks and by 2050 for the investment portfolio of the Exchange Fund [9][11] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a plan to improve the carbon emission statistical accounting system, which is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals [12][13] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the total amount and allocation plan for carbon emission allowances in the power generation industry for 2023 and 2024, marking the start of the third compliance period of the national carbon trading market [15][16] Group 2: ESG Ecosystem Updates - The United Nations Conference on Biological Diversity adopted several agreements at COP16, highlighting global efforts towards biodiversity protection [2] - The National Energy Administration published data on the issuance and trading of renewable energy green power certificates for September 2024, reflecting ongoing developments in renewable energy [2] - Companies like Rio Tinto and Mercedes-Benz are taking significant steps towards sustainability, such as transitioning to renewable diesel and establishing battery recycling facilities [2] Group 3: Practical Observations - The "2024 Biodiversity Protection Report" by the State Grid was released at COP16, showcasing corporate responsibility in biodiversity [2] - The transition of Rio Tinto's copper business in the U.S. to renewable diesel indicates a shift towards sustainable practices in the mining sector [2] - Mercedes-Benz's establishment of a battery recycling plant promotes the circular economy in the automotive industry [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on the upward trend in upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [2][3] - The Chinese government has filed a complaint with the WTO regarding the EU's anti-subsidy measures on electric vehicles, which could impact fair competition in the global electric vehicle market [2][42] Industry Data Summary Upstream Materials - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 70,000 CNY/ton, up 0.72% from last week, while battery-grade lithium carbonate is at 73,000 CNY/ton, up 0.69% [8][9] - The price of lithium hydroxide is stable, with battery-grade prices ranging from 65,500 to 70,500 CNY/ton [13][14] - The market for negative electrode materials remains stable, with a reference price of 32,378 CNY/ton [21][22] Downstream Demand - In September 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.307 million and 1.287 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 48.8% and 42.3% [2][41] - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to September 2024 reached 8.316 million units, a year-on-year growth of 31.7% [2][41] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the stable pricing of various battery materials, including ternary materials and electrolytes, with no significant fluctuations noted [17][28] - The production of lithium-ion battery cells is on the rise, with a total output of 734.4 GWh from January to September 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [39][40]

2024 年 11 月 05 日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 消费侧氢价指数持续下降，可再生能源制氢规模有望提升 氢能月度报告 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 9 月可再生能源制氢规模上升：9 月上海/北京/广东/河南/河北高纯氢（≥4N） 市场主流价格为 2.7/2.3/2/2.1/2.2 元/Nm3，环比上月持平。根据中国氢能联盟， 9 月中国氢价指数生产侧指数同比下跌至 28.2 元/千克。可再生能源制氢方面， 9 月全国共有 80 个可再生制氢能源项目，合计可再生能源制氢规模达 974.8MW。从地区来看已覆盖 25 个省（直辖市，自治区），涉及 72 家企业。 技术路线以碱性电解水制氢（AE）为主，项目规模达到 845.3 兆瓦，占比 86.7%； 电力来源主要为光伏，项目规模达到 704 兆瓦，占比 72.2%；应用方向以交通 为主，项目规模达到 335.3 兆瓦，占比 34.4%。 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 分析师：张后来 分析师登记编码：S0890524080004 电话：021-20321084 消费侧价格 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended" [4] Core Viewpoints - Iron ore demand remains high with a week-on-week price increase of 3.22% [3][4] - The supply of imported iron ore increased by 8.27% this week, while the arrival volume decreased by 6.6% [1][4] - Domestic iron ore production showed a slight increase of 0.1% week-on-week, maintaining an overall surplus in supply [1][4] Supply Summary - The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil reached 24.81 million tons, an increase of 1.896 million tons or 8.27% compared to the previous week [1][7] - The shipment volumes from major mining companies to China were as follows: Rio Tinto at 6.04 million tons (+19.41%), BHP at 5.368 million tons (+5.77%), Vale at 6.363 million tons (+1.21%), and FMG at 2.312 million tons (-18.82%) [1][7] - The total arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports was 22.126 million tons, down 6.6% week-on-week [1][7] Demand Summary - Daily average iron water production decreased slightly by 0.09% but remains higher than the same period in 2021 and 2022 [2][4] - The average daily consumption of imported iron ore was 2.9055 million tons, a decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [2][8] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 88.4%, a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points [2][8] Price and Profitability Summary - The average price index for iron ore (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) was $103.23 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $3.22 [3][8] - The profitability rate of steel companies decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 61.04% [3][8] - Despite the decrease in profitability, steel companies are expected to maintain a certain level of production due to ongoing profits [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights increased global market volatility as the US election approaches, with fluctuations in the "Trump trade" and expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weaker non-farm employment data affected by hurricanes [1][4]. - Domestic PMI has returned to the growth line, with production indicators outperforming new orders, indicating that policy efforts are driving production recovery, while demand recovery still requires more policy implementation [1][4]. - The A-share market saw an increase in trading activity, with an average daily turnover of 20,885 billion yuan, up 1,787 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating that market activity remains at historical high levels [1][4][11]. Group 2 - The report notes a structural divergence in the A-share market, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 experiencing valuation declines, while smaller-cap indices like the CSI 1000 and ChiNext saw further valuation increases [6][7]. - The A-share risk premium has slightly decreased and is currently below one standard deviation, while the equity-bond yield ratio for the Shanghai dividend stocks is near negative one standard deviation [8][10]. - The industry rotation index indicates that the speed of industry rotation is at historical lows, with technology growth sectors performing relatively well, while cyclical sectors are weaker [11][12]. Group 3 - Key upcoming events include the US election results on November 6, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on November 8, and the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting from November 4-8, which may focus on debt relief and real estate support policies [12].

Macro Strategy Overview - The report highlights the strong performance of the US economy, with a slight decline in GDP growth in Q3 but sustained consumer momentum. The market anticipates a near 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with an 82.55% chance of another cut in December, indicating a total potential reduction of 50 basis points for the year [3][22]. - The uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election is emphasized, with different outcomes potentially leading to varied impacts on asset prices. The report notes that if Trump is elected, it could negatively affect the A-share export trade chain, while Harris's election may lead to a recovery in export expectations [4][24]. Domestic Economic Environment - The report indicates that since the end of September, there have been clear signals of policy expansion, with expectations of increased debt and deficit to support areas like debt reduction, real estate rescue, and consumption stimulation. This has positively impacted market sentiment [7]. - Economic indicators show marginal improvement, with a Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.6%, driven by broad infrastructure and high appliance consumption. However, challenges such as low inflation, corporate profitability, and insufficient effective demand remain, necessitating further policies to boost employment and consumption [9]. A-share Investment Insights - The report outlines investment strategies based on the outcomes of the US election and domestic policy scenarios. If Trump wins and domestic demand policies exceed expectations, there could be structural opportunities in consumption and technology sectors. Conversely, if Harris wins, there may be a shift towards technology growth and small-cap opportunities [10]. - Regardless of the election outcome, sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and security are expected to have high certainty. Key industries to focus on include semiconductors, computers, communications, military, robotics, and high-end manufacturing [10]. Asset Allocation Outlook - The report provides a neutral outlook for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the short term, with a relatively optimistic medium-term view. US stocks and bonds are also viewed positively, while gold is expected to perform well due to geopolitical tensions [11]. - The report notes that the performance of A-shares has been mixed, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in October, driven by high market activity and policy expectations [14]. Industry Performance Review - The TMT sector showed strong performance in October, benefiting from positive quarterly results and the anticipation of policy support. In contrast, cyclical sectors performed relatively weakly [15]. - The report highlights that the market style has diverged, with small-cap growth stocks performing better, while large-cap stocks faced challenges [14]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the US election results and domestic policy developments, as these factors will significantly influence market dynamics and investment strategies moving forward [4][10][24].

2024 年 11 月 04 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 本周钢材供需双降、库存持续去化,钢价震荡偏强运行 钢铁行业周度报告 钢铁 投资评级：推荐 (维持) 分析师:张炜 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话: 021-20321304 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 研究助理:吴晗 邮箱：wuhan@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话: 021-20515355 行业走势图(2024年11月01日) 8000 - 钢铁指数 沪深300 - 6000 4000 2000 资料未添: iFind, 华宝证券研究创新部 相关研究报告 1、《本周铁矿供需双增,钢厂进口矿维 持低库存运行—铁矿行业周废报告》 2024-10-29 2、《钢材库存去化速度放缓,板材消费 环比小幅增加 0.5%—钢铁行业周度报 ୫》2024-10-28 3、《9月钢材库存持续去化，政策窗口 开启 利于改善行业盈利—钢铁９月月报》 2024-10-24 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 投资要点 ଥ供应：本周（10.26-11.1）钢铁供给收缩，五大材产量环比下滑 1.51%。本 期日均铁水产量（样本数 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry [1]. Core Insights - The annualized yield for cash management wealth management products is currently at 1.69%, which has decreased by over 50 basis points (BP) year-to-date [1][7]. - The average annualized yield for non-cash fixed income wealth management products over the past month is 2.20%, down 21 BP from the previous week [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, a decrease of 4 BP from the previous week [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years has increased by 1 BP to 3.77% [2][7]. - The total scale of maturing wealth management products from October 21 to October 27, 2024, is 258 billion, with an average compliance rate of 53%, down 5 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Management Products - As of October 27, 2024, the annualized yield for cash management products is 1.69%, a decrease of 4 BP from the previous week [1][7]. - The annualized yield for money market funds is 1.51%, down 3 BP from the previous week, with the yield gap between cash management products and money market funds narrowing by 1 BP to 18 BP [1][7]. 2. Performance Review of Wealth Management Products - The annualized yield for non-cash fixed income wealth management products over the past month is 2.20%, a decrease of 21 BP [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, down 4 BP [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years has increased by 1 BP to 3.77% [2][7]. 3. Maturity and Compliance Status - From October 21 to October 27, 2024, the total scale of maturing wealth management products is 258 billion, with an average compliance rate of 53%, down 5 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. - The compliance rate for closed-end products is notably higher at 82%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [2][9].