Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry and textile and apparel sectors [3][33] - Key stocks recommended for "Increase" rating include: Oppein Home, Sophia, Haotaitai, Pathfinder, and Semir Apparel [3][33] Core Insights - The light industry sector has shown a weak overall performance, with related consumption experiencing a slow recovery. Continuous attention is advised, especially with government policies promoting demand through "old-for-new" initiatives [3][32] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is approaching, which is expected to maintain a favorable outlook for the export chain. In August, domestic clothing and accessory exports improved month-on-month, while Vietnam's textile and apparel exports saw significant growth [3][33] - Domestic textile manufacturers have been expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, which is expected to benefit from the growth in textile exports [3][33] Industry News - Guangdong Lee & Man Paper's two packaging paper machines will be offline for maintenance for 5-8 days [7] - JD.com has become the "official online retail partner" for London Fashion Week, showcasing various brands [8] Company Announcements - Lutai A plans to invest an additional 500 million yuan in its wholly-owned subsidiary [25] - Jingxing Paper Industry has added an environmentally friendly recycled pulp production line to its household paper division [26]

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the steel sub-industry as **Neutral** and the non-ferrous metals sub-industry as **Positive** [2] Core Viewpoints - **Supply Constraints**: Global germanium (Ge) supply is rigid due to environmental policies, resource protection measures, and economic factors, with China being the largest producer [3] - **Demand Growth**: Germanium demand is increasing in high-tech fields such as fiber optics, infrared, and solar energy, driven by 5G, IoT, and satellite internet development [4] - **Price Elasticity**: Germanium prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and growing demand, with a projected global supply-demand gap of 22.6 tons by 2026 [4] - **Strategic Importance**: Germanium is increasingly recognized as a strategic resource globally, with major economies like the US, EU, and Japan listing it as a critical mineral [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Metal Resource – Germanium - Germanium is a rare metal with unique semiconductor properties, widely used in high-tech industries such as fiber optics, infrared optics, and solar energy [10] - It is classified as a strategic resource by major economies, including the US, EU, and Japan, due to its importance in defense and high-tech applications [10][11] - China has included germanium in its strategic key mineral list and imposed export restrictions in 2023 [12] 2. Germanium Resource Distribution and Supply - Global germanium reserves are concentrated in the US (45%) and China (41%), with total reserves estimated at 8,600 tons [3][22] - China dominates global germanium production, accounting for 67.86% of global output in 2021 [28] - China's export restrictions have led to a decline in germanium exports and an increase in export prices for certain products [31] 3. Demand Growth in Fiber Optics, Infrared, and Solar Energy - **Fiber Optics**: Germanium is used to enhance the refractive index in fiber optics, with demand driven by 5G network expansion and cloud computing [37][38] - **Infrared**: Military and civilian applications, such as night vision and thermal imaging, are boosting germanium demand in the infrared sector [42][44] - **Solar Energy**: Germanium is a key material in satellite solar cells, with demand expected to grow due to satellite internet projects like Starlink and China's GW and G60 plans [53][58] 4. Germanium Price Trends and Supply-Demand Forecast - Historical germanium prices have shown significant volatility, influenced by supply constraints, geopolitical events, and demand fluctuations [63] - Future supply is expected to remain tight due to environmental and export restrictions, while demand from fiber optics, infrared, and solar energy will drive price increases [67] - The global germanium supply-demand gap is projected to reach 22.6 tons by 2026, supporting strong price performance [67]

行 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|---------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|-- ...

行业周报 -20.00% -18.00% -16.00% -14.00% -12.00% -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% [Table_IndInvest] 业 研 [吨 able_MainInfo] 沪深加码以旧换新，电子烟新规出台 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2024 年 9 月 10 日 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | | 袁艺博 | | | 022-23839135 | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | [吨 able_Summary] 投资要点： 1）美国商务部对中、泰、越三国的纸餐盘作出反倾销初裁，倾销率最高达 1,039.05%。 2）母婴品牌 Babycare 旗下儿童运动户外品牌上市。 公司重要公告 1）奥瑞金：公司拟以 55.24 亿元收购中粮包装。 2）裕同科技：公司已累计回购 0.11%的股 ...

Investment Rating - Steel: Neutral [3] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [3] Core Views - Steel production is gradually resuming, with average demand and declining inventory leading to weaker steel prices. Raw material prices are also falling, reducing cost support. Short-term steel prices are expected to remain volatile [13][18]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to poor U.S. employment data, raising concerns about an economic recession. The Chilean National Copper Corporation reports a continued shortage of copper mines, with average downstream demand. Future demand data will be closely monitored [33][40]. - Aluminum ore supply remains tight, with stable production in downstream electrolytic aluminum plants. Alumina prices are expected to remain strong, but downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, leading to expectations of volatile electrolytic aluminum prices [42][44]. - Lithium prices continue to decline, with no large-scale production cuts from lithium salt plants. Recent policies promoting vehicle trade-ins may improve downstream demand as the consumption season approaches. However, lithium concentrate prices are falling, weakening cost support [53][54]. Industry Data Summary Steel - As of September 6, 2024, the total steel inventory (social + factory) is 14.97 million tons, down 3.25% from the previous week and down 7.03% year-on-year [20]. - The production of five major steel varieties reached 8.01 million tons, up 2.89% from August 30, but down 13.14% year-on-year [15]. - The average profit margins for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates are -939, -1,117, -626, and -983 yuan/ton, respectively, indicating a decline in profitability [31]. Copper - On September 6, the copper smelting and refining fees were $4.90 per ton and $0.49 per pound, respectively, down 9.26% from August 30 [37]. - LME copper spot prices fell by 2.19% to $9,000 per ton, while domestic prices dropped by 1.66% to 72,700 yuan per ton [40]. Aluminum - From August 30 to September 6, LME aluminum spot prices decreased by 3.88% to $2,400 per ton, and domestic prices fell by 2.09% to 19,200 yuan per ton [44]. - Alumina prices increased by 0.33% to 3,954 yuan per ton during the same period [44]. Lithium - From August 30 to September 6, domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell by 2.63% to 74,000 yuan per ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 1.10% to 71,900 yuan per ton [53].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company, Aorikin, is a leading player in the domestic metal packaging industry, with a strong foundation built through mergers and acquisitions, including the acquisition of Ball Asia Pacific's packaging business and Jamestrong in Australia [17][21]. - The company has shown solid performance with a revenue growth of 1.14% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 18.39% year-on-year in the first half of the year [21]. - The trend towards consolidation in the metal packaging industry is evident, with an increasing demand for beer cans, which is expected to drive future growth [29][35]. - The company is diversifying its customer base and business operations, aiming to strengthen its position in the market through strategic acquisitions and new product development [21][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Aorikin is a comprehensive packaging solution provider established in 1994, with a significant presence across 16 provinces in China and over 40 manufacturing bases [17][18]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with strategic investments from key clients, enhancing its market position [18][19]. Industry Trends - The metal packaging industry has reached a scale of over 1,500 billion, with a slight increase in market share for metal packaging [30][33]. - The industry is experiencing a consolidation trend, with major players increasing their market share through acquisitions [35]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 72.06 billion in the first half of the year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.90% from 2014 to 2023 [21]. - The gross profit margin improved by 3.38 percentage points in 2023, reaching 15.24%, driven by a decrease in raw material prices [23]. - The company maintains a strong cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.54 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [26]. Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.35, 0.39, and 0.43 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.63 for 2024 [21].

机械设备行业业绩综述报告 报 告 行 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 行业业绩有所分化，24Q2 基金增持机械设备股 ——机械设备行业 2024 半年报综述 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2024 年 9 月 3 日 [Table_Summary 行业整体经营情况 ] 2024 年上半年机械设备行业营收稳步增长，归母净利润有所下降，行业实现 营业总收入 9314.35 亿元，同比增长 3.56%；实现归母净利润 630.71 亿元， 同比下降 4.16%。2024 年上半年机械设备行业盈利能力小幅下降，2024H1 行 业毛利率为 23.16%，较 2023 年同期减少 0.20pct；2024 年上半年机械设备行 业净利率为 7.25%，较 2023 年同期减少 0.55pct。 基金持仓情况 行业配置方面，基金（基金和基金管理公司）增持机械设备股。2024Q2 基金 持有机械设备股票数量由 2024Q1 的 349 只增加至 536 只，持股市值由 2024Q1 的 1076.05 亿元增加至 2028.65 亿元。行业持仓集中度有所下降。截至 2024Q2， ...

行业月报 报 告 [Table_MainInfo] 稀土价格有所改善，关注旺季需求变化 ――金属行业 9 月月报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2024 年 9 月 4 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业数据 钢铁：根据中国物流信息中心数据，8 月钢铁行业 PMI 为 40.4%，环比减少 2.1pct.，钢铁行业景气度继续下行。8 月淡季特征明显，下游需求继续走弱； 钢厂生产随之收缩，库存继续下降，8 月钢价下跌。展望未来，9 月消费旺季 预期下，市场需求有望回暖，钢价或得到支撑，需关注实际需求情况。 铜：矿端，8 月必和必拓与埃斯孔迪达矿工人谈判对供应造成一定干扰，支 撑铜价。宏观面，8 月美联储偏鸽言论强化降息预期，但后续 GDP 等数据增 强美国经济基本面信心，再度削弱降息预期；国内家电和汽车以旧换新等政 策对铜需求有一定支撑。供需面，8 月海外库存持续积累，国内库存虽有下 降但仍处高位；《公平竞争审查条例》正式施行，再生铜相关企业的税收政策 收紧，再生铜产量或受影响。展望未来，9 月旺季预期下，需求或有改善， 铜价有望得到支撑，需关注下游实际需求情况 ...

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" - The non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The steel industry experienced a revenue decline of 7.18% year-on-year in H1 2024, with a net profit drop of 54.56%. In Q2 2024, revenue decreased by 8.83% year-on-year, and net profit fell by 12.76% [3][24] - The non-ferrous metals industry saw a revenue increase of 2.35% year-on-year in H1 2024, although net profit decreased by 2.81%. In Q2 2024, revenue grew by 7.72%, and net profit surged by 26.43% year-on-year [4][76] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - **Overall Performance**: In H1 2024, the steel industry generated revenue of 1,044.12 billion, down 7.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.142 billion, down 54.56% year-on-year. Q2 2024 saw revenue of 529.264 billion, down 8.83% year-on-year, and net profit of 4.304 billion, down 12.76% year-on-year [24][3] - **Profitability**: The gross margin and net margin for H1 2024 were 5.26% and 0.66%, respectively, both lower than the same period in 2023. In Q2 2024, the gross margin improved to 5.78%, up 1.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin increased to 1.00%, up 0.69 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [28][32] - **Sub-sectors**: - **Steel Raw Materials**: H1 2024 revenue was 31.834 billion, down 3.82% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.872 billion, down 29.54% year-on-year [35] - **General Steel**: H1 2024 revenue was 843.994 billion, down 8.39% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.554 billion, down 173.52% year-on-year [48] - **Special Steel**: H1 2024 revenue was 168.286 billion, down 1.34% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 28.08% year-on-year [61] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - **Overall Performance**: In H1 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry achieved revenue of 1,698.224 billion, up 2.35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 69.408 billion, down 2.81% year-on-year. Q2 2024 revenue was 924.091 billion, up 7.72% year-on-year, and net profit was 43.479 billion, up 26.43% year-on-year [4][76] - **Profitability**: The gross margin and net margin for H1 2024 increased by 1.15 percentage points and decreased by 0.17 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. In Q2 2024, the gross margin improved by 2.33 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and the net margin increased by 1.50 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4] - **Sub-sectors**: - **Metal New Materials**: Q2 2024 performance improved, with prices stabilizing after a decline [4] - **Industrial Metals**: Q2 2024 saw a significant increase in net profit, reaching a recent high, while H1 2024 copper prices peaked before a decline [4] - **Precious Metals**: H1 2024 performance was strong, with gold prices fluctuating positively [4] - **Minor Metals**: Q2 2024 performance improved significantly, with rare earth prices stabilizing after a rise [4] - **Energy Metals**: Q2 2024 profitability improved, with lithium prices remaining low [4]

行 [Table_Contactor] -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] CME 预估 8 月挖机销量同比增长 9%，行业加速回暖 行业月报 究 | --- | |---------------------------| | | | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | 宁前羽 | | 022-23839174 | | ningqy@bhzq.com | ——机械设备行业 9 月月报 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2024 年 9 月 4 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行情回顾 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_IndQuotePic] 最近半年行业相对走势 行 业 月 报 | --- | --- | |------------|-------| | | | | 通用设备 | 看好 | | 专用设备 | 中性 | | 交运设备 | 中性 | | 工程机械 | 看好 | | 自动化设备 | 看好 | | --- | --- | | ...