固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益周报 债市延续修复，中长期限品种表现较好 | | | | ――利率债周报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： 王哲语 | SAC NO： S1150524070001 24 | 2026 | 年 1 月 | 日 | | | 统计区间：2026 年 1 月 16 日至 2026 年 1 月 22 日 | | | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | | | | | | ⚫ 重要事件点评 | | | | | [Table_IndInvest] 王哲语 | | | | | | 022-23839051 | 经济数据：2025 年末，基本面"供给强于需求、外需强于内需"的格局 | | | | | | 有所深化，外需对生产端形成拉动，投资和消费增速回落，主要受两新政 | | | | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | 年一季度净出口有望继续拉动经济，投资 策退坡影响。展望来看，2026 | | | | | | 和消费有望受到政策提振。 | | | | | 周喜 | ⚫ 资金价格：小幅抬升 | | | | | ...

宏观经济分析报告 5 海外地缘风险仍在，国内再推消费政策 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2026 年 1 月 23 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，经通胀调整后的 2025 年 11 月个人消费支出 环比增长 0.3%，其中商品消费支出环比增速创 2025 年下半年以来最高水 平。尽管个人消费支出价格指数显示的通胀仍具粘性，但在工资和储蓄的双 重支撑下，消费仍然呈现稳步增长态势。另外，美国工业产出在 12 月也出 现超预期增长，早先公布的三季度实际 GDP 环 ...

研 行 行业周报 南（试行）》； （2）商务部等九部门发布关于促进药品零售行业高质量发展的意见； （3）替尔泊肽拟纳入突破性疗法，治疗代谢相关性脂肪性肝病。 券 报 相关研究报告 荣昌生物与艾伯维签署授权 许可协议，关注创新药产业链 业周报 业 九部门发文促进药品零售行业高质量发展，期待药店经营拐点 究 证 分析师： 侯雅楠 SAC NO： S1150524120001 2026 年 01 月 23 日 医药生物 证券分析师 侯雅楠 houyn@bhzq.com 022-23839211 研子究行助业理评级 中药Ⅱ 中性 重点品种推荐 恒瑞医药 买入 （1）恒瑞医药：获得药物临床试验批准通知书； 研 药明康德 增持 （2）百利天恒：iza-bren 用于治疗复发性或转移性食管鳞癌的药品上市申请 获得受理； 究 近三月行业指数走势图 （3）复星医药：①分拆子公司上市的一般风险提示性公告；②控股子公司药 品获临床试验批准。 行情回顾 告 本周（2026/1/16-2026/1/22）上证综指上涨 0.24%，深证成指上涨 0.14%， SW 医药生物下跌 2.97%，子板块全部下跌（中药 II -0.10%＞医药 ...

扩内需、反内卷增量部署可期，市场延续震荡整理——A 股市场投资策略周 报 行业研究 政策赋能算力升级，AI 应用生态深化——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2026/01/23） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.23） 宏观及策略研究 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/23） 宏观及策略研究 扩内需、反内卷增量部署可期，市场延续震荡整理——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（1 月 16 日-1 月 22 日），重要指数涨跌不一；其中，上证综指收涨 0.24%，创业板指收跌 1.17%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 0.58%，中证 500 收涨 2.00%。成 ...

Market Review - In the past five trading days (January 16 to January 22), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.24%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.17% [5] - The trading volume significantly decreased, with a total turnover of 13.80 trillion yuan, and the average daily turnover dropped to 2.76 trillion yuan, a decrease of 683.69 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [10] Economic Growth and Investment - In December 2025, fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the period from January to November 2025; infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 2.2% [26] - The manufacturing investment grew by 0.6% year-on-year, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of 17.2% [26] - Overall, the economic growth rate for 2025 showed a pattern of high growth followed by a slowdown, with the annual target being successfully achieved [26] Policy and Strategy - The government is focusing on strengthening domestic circulation as a key macro policy point, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [31] - The fiscal policy for 2026 will see an increase in total expenditure, with a focus on boosting consumption and ensuring necessary spending intensity [31] - The market is expected to continue its oscillating adjustment, with ETF experiencing continuous net outflows; however, overall trading enthusiasm remains, and market sentiment may fluctuate [32] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics, driven by the expansion of AI capital and domestic substitution processes [32] - The non-ferrous metals industry presents investment opportunities supported by rising prices of certain commodities [32] - Continued attention is warranted for banking and insurance sectors due to the management's push for long-term capital inflows and a low-interest-rate environment [32]

业 周 宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧的风险；供应链波动加大的风险；AI 技术迭代 速度不及预期的风险；AI 应用落地效果不及预期的风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 10 行 行业周报 业 政策赋能算力升级，AI 应用生态持续深化 | 研 | | | | | | | ——计算机行业周报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | 连天龙 | SAC NO： | | S1150525070002 | 2026 | 年 01 | 月 | 22 | | 日 | | | 计算机 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 连天龙 |  | 行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | liantl@bhzq.com | | | （1）工信部：加快突破训练芯片、异构算力等关键技术； | | | | | | | | | | 022 ...

晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 3、风险提示 两融业务成本超预期变动风险；两融监管政策超预期变动风险。 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（1 月 14 日-1 月 20 日）A 股市场主要指数多数下跌，其中中证 500 涨幅最大，上涨了 1.28%；上证 50 跌幅最大，下跌了 1.99%。此外，上证综指下跌 0.61%，深证成指下跌 0.10%，创业板 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors, nor does it discuss their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The content primarily focuses on market data, financing and securities lending balances, industry characteristics, and ETF/stock-specific financing and securities lending activities[1][2][9]. - The report provides detailed data on financing and securities lending balances, including weekly changes in financing balances (+267.64 billion RMB) and securities lending balances (-2.63 billion RMB), as well as the total two-market balance of 27,003.83 billion RMB as of January 20, 2026[12][13][15]. - Industry-specific financing and securities lending characteristics are analyzed, highlighting sectors with the highest and lowest financing and securities lending activities. For example, the non-bank financial, communication, and electronics sectors had the highest financing buy-in ratios, while the textile and apparel, light manufacturing, and building materials sectors had the lowest[29][34][35]. - The report also identifies the top ETFs and stocks by financing net buy-in amounts, such as the "China Ping An" stock (601318) with a financing net buy-in of 230.64 million RMB and the "China Securities Electric Network Equipment Theme ETF" (159326.SZ) with a financing net buy-in of 42.23 million RMB[44][45][49]. - Securities lending activities are also detailed, with the top stocks by net securities lending sell-out amounts including "Jerry Shares" (002353.SZ) with 18.67 million RMB and "Giant Network" (002558.SZ) with 17.67 million RMB[50][51].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [4] - The companies recommended for "Increase" rating are Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [4] Core Insights - The national construction machinery operating rate for 2025 is projected to be 44.89%, with 18 provinces exceeding 50% [14] - The sales volume of excavators for the entire year of 2025 is expected to reach 235,300 units, with domestic sales of 118,500 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.9% [33] - The domestic humanoid robot industry remains highly prosperous, with several companies initiating IPO processes, indicating significant investment opportunities in the sector [33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to enhance energy efficiency and promote green transformation in key industries [14][15] Industry News - The construction machinery operating rate in 2025 is 44.89%, with leading provinces including Anhui, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi [14] - The port equipment operating rate has shown continuous growth from July to December 2025, indicating a shift in foreign trade dynamics [14] - The guidelines for zero-carbon factory construction emphasize systematic advancement and innovation-driven approaches to reduce carbon emissions in various industries [15] Company Announcements - Tianjin Jinrong Tianyu Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. announced an investment in an industrial fund to enhance its strategic development and market insight [23] - Guangzhou Dayilong Packaging Machinery Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit growth of 51.88% to 86.27% for 2025, driven by market expansion and operational efficiency improvements [24] Market Review - From January 14 to January 20, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.89%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry rose by 1.23%, outperforming the index by 2.11 percentage points [25] - As of January 20, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry is 50.55, with a valuation premium of 254.64% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [26]

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for December 2025 shows a stable overall economy with a GDP growth of 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations, but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter [2] - The industrial output value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while retail sales growth was lower at 0.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a decline of 3.8% year-on-year, indicating a weakening investment environment [2] - The economic growth pattern for 2025 indicates a stronger supply than demand, with external demand outpacing internal demand, which is expected to continue into 2026 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects [2] Production Structure - The industrial output growth in December 2025 showed a slight recovery, with high-tech manufacturing outpacing overall growth, indicating an optimization in production structure [3] - The production capacity utilization and sales rates reached their highest levels of the year, suggesting an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in December 2025 was lower than expected, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption [3] - The decline in disposable income growth indicates a constraint on consumer spending capacity, although new policies are expected to support consumption in early 2026 [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where investment growth rates fell significantly [4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize due to government initiatives, while real estate investment continues to struggle with a year-on-year decline of 35.8% [5] Fixed Income Research - Credit bond issuance increased, with a downward trend in overall interest rates, indicating a favorable environment for credit bonds despite a reduction in net financing [6] - The credit spread for various bond types is at historical lows, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for credit bonds [6][8] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is facing limited short-term demand pressure, with expectations of price stabilization due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment [9] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable despite weak supply dynamics, supported by positive long-term demand forecasts [10] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to improve due to demand from electric vehicles and high-pressure power grids, despite current oversupply issues [11] - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. economic data, with long-term demand expected to rise [12]