Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.67 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.91%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.13 billion yuan, up 19.35% year-on-year [2][3] - The company has a strong order backlog, with significant growth in emerging businesses, particularly in the CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector [3][4] - The company expects revenue growth to accelerate in 2026, with guidance indicating a revenue increase of 19%-22% [6] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 42.0%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased proportion of lower-margin emerging businesses [4] - The company’s R&D investment for 2025 was 593 million yuan, reflecting a commitment to exploring and applying cutting-edge technologies [4] - The net profit for 2026 is projected to be 1.42 billion yuan, with an EPS of 3.93 yuan per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 28.20 times [7][10] Business Segments - The small molecule CDMO segment generated revenue of 4.735 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.59% [3] - Emerging businesses saw a revenue increase of 57.30% in 2025, with international revenue growing over 240% [3] - The company has a robust pipeline with 294 ongoing clinical research projects, including 122 in Phase II and beyond [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 241.125 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.674 billion yuan, up 2.25% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 12.464 billion yuan, an increase of 4.10% year-on-year [2][4] - The production of major products has increased, and the gross margin of the primary aluminum business has improved. The company is also planning to acquire a majority stake in a Brazilian aluminum company [4][7] Financial Summary - The company achieved a metallurgical-grade alumina production of 17.35 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.85%. The production of primary aluminum (including alloys) reached 8.08 million tons, up 6.18% year-on-year. The average price of domestic alumina decreased by 20.66% year-on-year, while the average price of domestic aluminum ingots increased by 3.71% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin for the alumina business decreased by 8.86 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for the primary aluminum business increased by 8.57 percentage points year-on-year due to a decrease in raw material costs and an increase in selling prices [6] - The company forecasts net profits of 20.273 billion yuan for 2026, 21.489 billion yuan for 2027, and 22.704 billion yuan for 2028, with corresponding EPS of 1.18, 1.25, and 1.32 yuan per share [8][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved rapid growth in operating performance, with a revenue of 11.078 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.70%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.393 billion yuan, up 18.99%, with basic earnings per share of 3.00 yuan [2][3] - The company’s three main business segments are performing well, with significant growth in the CNC machine tool business, which saw a revenue increase of 142.59% to 968 million yuan [8][7] - The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2025 were 33.56% and 21.62%, respectively, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous year [6] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11,078 million yuan, with a growth rate of 25.7%. The projected revenues for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 13,446 million yuan, 15,926 million yuan, and 18,889 million yuan, respectively [12] - The net profit for 2025 was 2,393 million yuan, with a growth rate of 19.0%. The expected net profits for the following years are 2,929 million yuan, 3,551 million yuan, and 4,284 million yuan [12] - The average return on equity (ROE) for 2025 was 21.85%, slightly up from the previous year [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 206.68 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 2.98% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 50.30% to 20.34 billion yuan [3] - The production output exceeded the midpoint of guidance by 75%, with significant improvements in cobalt business gross margin [4][6] - The KFM Phase II project is progressing smoothly, and gold is expected to contribute to future growth [7] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 206.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.0% [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 20.34 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 50.3% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was 0.95 yuan, with projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 at 1.61, 1.74, and 1.94 yuan respectively [11] Production and Pricing - The production of copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate increased by 13.99%, 2.96%, -9.68%, -14.17%, 3.23%, and 2.8% respectively [6] - Average prices for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, ammonium paratungstate, niobium iron, and monoammonium phosphate increased by 8.73%, 42.81%, 5.63%, 57.41%, 4.78%, and 14.53% respectively [6] - The gross margins for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate increased by 4.90 percentage points, 29.31 percentage points, 4.58 percentage points, 1.26 percentage points, 6.98 percentage points, and decreased by 0.31 percentage points respectively [6] Future Outlook - The company is expanding its gold resources, having completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Ecuador's Odin Mining and is in the construction phase, expected to be operational by 2029 [7] - The KFM Phase II expansion project is expected to be completed by 2027, adding a processing capacity of 7.26 million tons per year and an annual increase of 100,000 tons of copper metal [7] - The net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to 34.41 billion yuan and 37.29 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2028 at 41.44 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5]. Core Views - The Middle East geopolitical situation is a key factor affecting global aluminum prices, with recent production cuts and damages in Middle Eastern aluminum plants expected to provide upward momentum for prices [3][40]. - The domestic copper market shows decent fundamentals, with potential support for copper prices as some smelters may enter maintenance periods [3][34]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the speed of steel inventory reduction, which could boost steel prices if seasonal demand expectations are validated [5][17]. Industry Summary Steel - The production of five major steel products has slightly decreased, with total inventory also declining, indicating a potential for price increases if demand strengthens [17][25]. - As of March 27, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86.63%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points from the previous week [22]. Copper - The global refined copper market experienced a surplus of 17,000 tons in January 2026, down from a surplus of 168,000 tons in December 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [34]. - On March 27, the LME copper spot price was $12,000 per ton, reflecting a 0.20% increase from the previous week [37]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum spot price on March 27 was $3,300 per ton, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous week, while domestic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate [41]. - The report anticipates that the aluminum price may remain strong in the short term due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the gradual release of domestic demand [40]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are currently under pressure due to high oil prices, but there is potential for a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease or inflation concerns diminish [46]. - As of March 27, the COMEX gold closing price was $4,521.30 per ounce, a 0.65% increase from the previous week [46]. New Energy Metals - Concerns over potential production cuts in Australian lithium mines due to energy issues may lead to a supply shortage, with lithium carbonate prices rising to 159,500 yuan per ton [52]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor production dynamics in Australia and export policies in Zimbabwe [51]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The rare earth market is facing pressure due to weak demand from downstream enterprises, with prices expected to remain volatile [66]. - As of March 27, the price of light rare earth oxide neodymium praseodymium was 712,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.42% increase from the previous week [66].

金融工程专题报告 公司治理专题系列报告二：基于多因子框架的中证 500 指数增强模型 证券分析师 王雪莹 022-23839121 wangxy4430@bhzq.com 核心观点： 研究背景与理论介绍 在 A 股市场的指数体系中，中证 500 是量化投资领域指数增强策略的 重要标的，该指数完整覆盖 31 个申万一级行业，包含电子、医药生物、 电力设备等多个战略性新兴产业，成分股多为处于成长期的优质企业， 兼具流动性与成长性双重优势，其成分股权重结构呈现出极致分散、风 险高度均衡的特征。截至 2026 年 3 月 18 日，以中证 500 指数为跟踪 标的的基金全市场合计达 249 只，总管理规模 1982.02 亿元，其中指 数增强型基金数量达 169 只，规模合计 565.19 亿元。 从投资逻辑来看，公司治理水平是决定企业长期健康发展的核心内生动 力，更是影响股票长期收益的关键因素。良好的公司治理能够有效规范 企业经营行为、优化资源配置效率、保护股东权益，进而提升企业的核 心竞争力与盈利能力，而财务指标作为企业经营成果与治理水平的量化 载体，能够直观、准确地反映企业的治理效率与经营质量，是筛选优质 标的 ...

观 研 究 宋亦威 022-23861608 SAC NO:S1150514080001 songyw@bhzq.com [Table_Author] 严佩佩 022-23839070 SAC NO:S1150520110001 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛芃[Table_IndInvest] 022-23839160 SAC NO：S1150124030005 jinpp@bhzq.com 事件：2026 年 3 月 31 日，统计局公布了 PMI 数据，3 月制造业采购经理指 数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 50.4%、50.1%和 50.5%。 点评：（1）制造业景气水平回升至 50.4%，重回扩张区间，产需两端均改善。 具体而言，3 月生产端扩张步伐加快，生产指数回升 1.8 个百分点至 51.4%， 主要与春节后企业复工复产有关；与此同时，新订单指数回升 3.0 个百分点 至 51.6%，显示制造业需求景气显著改善。进出口方面，新出口订单回升 4.1 个百分点至 49.1%，收缩步伐显著放缓，除季节性因素外，不排除与国际能 源价格高企冲击全球制造业，而中国制造 ...

分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2026 年 3 月 31 日 核心观点： 固定收益季报 结构性行情，把握短债的确定性与长债的高波动性 ――信用债二季度投资策略展望 对比 2025 年四季度末，2026 年一季度末交易商协会公布的发行指导利 率全部下行，整体变化幅度为-11 BP 至-3 BP。截至 3 月 29 日，2026 年一季 度发行规模环比下降，企业债、中期票据、短期融资券发行金额减少，公司 债、定向工具发行金额增加；信用债净融资额环比增加，其中企业债、中期 票据净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加；企业债、定向工具净融资额为 负，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券净融资额为正。二级市场方面，2026 年一季度信用债成交规模环比下降，各品种成交金额均减少。收益率方面， 2026 年一季度信用债收益率全部下行。信用利差方面，中短期票据、企业债、 城投债信用利差则有所分化，整体呈中短端收窄、长端走阔态势。分位数来 看，目前 AAA 级 7 年期品种分位数相对较高，其余品种仍处历史低位。绝 对收益角度来看，相对旺盛的配置需求将推动信用债延续修复行情，尽管多 空因素影响下震荡调整难以避免 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dynamic Investment Strategy Based on Valuation (PE Dynamic Investment Model) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model dynamically adjusts investment amounts based on the valuation level of the index, aiming to optimize returns by increasing investment during low valuation periods and reducing it during high valuation periods [54] - **Model Construction Process**: - At the beginning of each month, calculate the five-year historical percentile of the index's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio - Investment rules: - If PE percentile < 30%, invest 1000 CNY - If PE percentile is between 30% and 70%, invest 500 CNY - If PE percentile > 70%, invest 0 CNY [54] - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows significant improvement in returns for broad-based indices like CSI 300 but has limited incremental benefits for value-based Smart Beta indices due to their already strong performance [55][60] 2. Model Name: Dynamic Investment Strategy Based on Moving Averages (MA Dynamic Investment Model) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model adjusts investment amounts based on the deviation of the index's current price from its 500-day moving average, aiming to capture market trends and optimize returns [54] - **Model Construction Process**: - At the beginning of each month, calculate the deviation: `(Current Index Price - 500-day Moving Average) / 500-day Moving Average` - Investment rules: - If deviation < -50%, invest 1000 CNY - If deviation is between -50% and -35%, invest 800 CNY - If deviation is between -35% and -20%, invest 600 CNY - If deviation is between -20% and 20%, invest 500 CNY - If deviation is between 20% and 35%, invest 400 CNY - If deviation is between 35% and 50%, invest 200 CNY - If deviation > 50%, invest 0 CNY [54] - **Model Evaluation**: Similar to the PE dynamic model, this strategy improves returns for broad-based indices but has limited impact on value-based Smart Beta indices [55][60] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. PE Dynamic Investment Model - **CSI 300 Index**: - 3-year XIRR: Average return improved from -0.06% (normal investment) to 2.16% [56][58] - 5-year XIRR: Average return improved from 0.67% (normal investment) to 3.25% [56][58] - **Value-Based Smart Beta Indices**: - Limited incremental benefits, with average XIRR improvements of less than 0.3% compared to normal investment [56][58] 2. MA Dynamic Investment Model - **CSI 300 Index**: - 3-year XIRR: Average return improved from -0.06% (normal investment) to 0.08% [56][58] - 5-year XIRR: Average return improved from 0.67% (normal investment) to 0.86% [56][58] - **Value-Based Smart Beta Indices**: - Similar to the PE model, incremental benefits were minimal, with average XIRR improvements of less than 0.5% [56][58] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Dividend Yield - **Factor Construction Idea**: Select stocks with high and stable dividend yields to construct indices with strong income-generating potential [12][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Select stocks with at least three consecutive years of cash dividends - Rank stocks by average dividend yield over the past three years - Weight stocks by dividend yield or a combination of dividend yield and other factors (e.g., volatility) [21][23] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides stable returns and lower volatility, making it suitable for defensive strategies [15][25] 2. Factor Name: Free Cash Flow - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focus on companies with strong free cash flow generation, which indicates financial health and value potential [12][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Select stocks with positive free cash flow over the past three to five years - Rank stocks by free cash flow yield - Exclude financial and real estate sectors - Weight stocks by free cash flow yield [21][23] - **Factor Evaluation**: Delivers higher average returns but with greater volatility compared to dividend yield factors [15][25] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Yield Factor - **Indices**: - CSI Dividend Index: 5-year XIRR average return of 9.01% [53] - CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index: 5-year XIRR average return of 10.60% [53] - **Stability**: High stability with 100% profitability over 5-year periods [53] 2. Free Cash Flow Factor - **Indices**: - CSI Free Cash Flow Index: 5-year XIRR average return of 20.88% [53] - **Volatility**: Higher volatility compared to dividend yield indices, with a wider range of returns [53]

Group 1: Fund Research - The equity market experienced a downturn, with all major indices declining, particularly the ChiNext Index, which fell by 1.68%. Among 31 Shenwan primary industries, 9 sectors saw gains, with the top five being non-ferrous metals, public utilities, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and textiles and apparel [2][3] - The public fund market saw significant growth, with the total scale of public funds surpassing 38 trillion yuan, while private funds reached 22.60 trillion yuan [2] - In terms of fund performance, equity funds had the smallest decline, averaging a drop of 0.31%, with a positive return ratio of 32.20%. Fixed income + funds rose by 0.05%, with a positive return ratio of 58.03% [3] Group 2: Company Research - Western Mining (601168) - Western Mining reported a revenue of 61.687 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.643 billion yuan, up 24.26% year-on-year [5] - In Q4 2025, the company experienced a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline of 21.27% and a net profit drop of 35.21%. The decrease was attributed to increased asset impairment losses and reduced investment income [7] - The company plans to produce 172,026 tons of copper, 63,419 tons of lead, and 127,640 tons of zinc in 2026, with several projects expected to contribute to future performance growth [8] Group 3: Industry Research - Light Industry Manufacturing & Textile Apparel - The paper and paper products industry achieved a total profit of 5.04 billion yuan in January-February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [13] - Major domestic sports apparel brands, including Anta Sports and Li Ning, reported revenue growth of 13.26% and 3.22% respectively for 2025, indicating resilience in the sports apparel sector despite increased competition [13] - The outdoor market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 15% in the next three years, driven by rising temperatures and increased interest in outdoor activities [13]