权益市场延续上涨，科创债 ETF 集中成立——公募基金 10 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额继续上升——融资融券 10 月月报 行业研究 晨会纪要（2025/10/14） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.14） 包装纸价迎上涨，中美关税起波澜四季度聚焦内需——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 基金研究 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 要 晨会纪要（2025/10/14） 基金研究 权益市场延续上涨，科创债 ETF 集中成立——公募基金 10 月月报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、上月市场回顾 9 月，市场主要指数估值多数上调。市盈率方面，创业板指的估值历史分位数涨幅靠前，此外，科创 50 的 市盈率历史分位数达到了 99.9%；市净率方面，科创 50 的估值历史分位数涨幅靠前。3 ...

晨会纪要（2025/10/13） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.13） 宏观及策略研究 海外政坛动荡不稳，国内政策谋划布局——宏观经济周报 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/10/13） 宏观及策略研究 固定收益研究 债市逆风格局难改，但形势好于三季度——利率债四季度投资策略展望 行业研究 国内节后开始复工，美国政府持续停摆——金属行业周报 关注 ESMO 数据发布及三季报业绩情况——医药生物行业 10 月投资策略展 望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 海外政坛动荡不稳，国内政策谋划布局——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，由于两党迟迟未就 ...

晨会纪要（2025/10/10） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.10） 宏观及策略研究 制造业景气度进一步改善，小型企业改善明显——2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 "十五五"规划部署在即，市场延续节前活跃状态——A 股市场投资策略周 报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 行业研究 长假消费平稳增长，维持对包装纸行业乐观判断——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业 10 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/10/10） 宏观及策略研究 制造业景气度进一步改善，小型企业改善明显——2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 （2）9 月非制造业商务活动指数回落 0.3 个百分点至 50.0%，位于分界点。分行业来看，9 月建筑业商务活 动景气度小幅回升了 0.2 个百分点至 49.3%，继续位于收缩区间。服务业商务活动指数则受暑期效应消退影 ...

宏观数据点评报告 制造业景气度进一步改善，小型企业改善明显 ――2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 | 究 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | | SAC NO： | | | S1150514080001 | | | 年 2025 9 | 10 | 月 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 事件：2025 年 | 9 | 月 | 30 | 日，统计局公布了 | PMI | 数据，9 | 月制造业采购经理指 | | | | 宋亦威 022-23861608 SAC NO:S1150514080001 songyw@bhzq.com [Table_Author] 严佩佩 022-23839070 SAC NO:S1150520110001 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛芃[Table_IndInvest] 02 ...

晨会纪要（2025/10/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.09） 宏观及策略研究 外汇系列：人民币汇率制度背景和分析框架——宏观经济专题 基金研究 固定收益研究 弱势期关注韧性，把握调整后的配置窗口——信用债四季度投资策略展望 权益市场主要指数全部上涨，公募基金规模再创新高——公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 纪 1、海内外汇率制度变迁 IMF 将各国汇率制度分为四大类：硬盯住、软盯住、浮动汇率和其他。纵观历史，金本位和布雷顿森林体 系时期的"黄金-美元"本位，均是以黄金类实物资产为"锚"，多数国家汇率制度也主要是采取硬盯住；在 此之后，国家信用主导国际货币体系，美元逐渐成为锚定物，各国汇率制度也随之开始向更加灵活的软盯 住变动。然而，随后的发展并未如预期那样向着更加灵活的浮动汇率制度变动，反而是逐渐向软盯住集中。 可见全球汇率制度的选择除了货币政策独立性以外，还面临着贸易发展、金 ...

晨会纪要（2025/09/30） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.30） 宏观及策略研究 利润率获持续推动，工企利润同比增速转正——2025 年 1-8 月工业企业效益 数据点评 固定收益研究 初看 REITs 的投资机会（系列四）：收益视角——固定收益专题报告 基金研究 主动偏股基金经理市场状态"能力圈"研究——基金专题报告 金融工程研究 证 支持向量机在量化金融中的应用——金融工程专题报告 券 公司研究 研 内修主业稳健发展，优质资产注入可期——中国稀土（000831）深度报告 究 行业研究 报 包装纸提价向下游扩散，美国关税政策再生变化——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业周报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 晨会纪要（2025/09/30） 宏观及策略研究 利润率获持续推动，工企利润同比增速转正——2025 年 1-8 月工业企业效益数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩 ...

Group 1: Profit Growth and Trends - The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in the first eight months of 2025 turned positive, increasing by 0.9% year-on-year[1] - In August 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises saw a significant monthly increase of 20.4% year-on-year[1] - The operating revenue of industrial enterprises maintained stability, achieving a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in the first eight months[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for the same period grew by 6.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first seven months[3] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.24%, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, but the decline rate narrowed compared to the first seven months[3] - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 17 sectors achieved positive profit growth in the first eight months, with notable increases in transportation equipment manufacturing and resource recycling industries[4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The future profitability of industrial enterprises will depend on the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, particularly in capacity management, which is a key observation point[4] - There are risks related to the optimization of market competition order and external environmental uncertainties that could disrupt domestic economic stability[5] - The semiconductor industry's profitability is expected to improve due to increased capital expenditure by domestic AI companies[4]

Macroeconomic and Policy Environment - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing employment and inflation due to the contradiction between economic resilience and a gradual decline in employment, leading to ambiguity in future interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Eurozone shows signs of improvement in economic indicators following multiple interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, with low policy rates and stable inflation supporting domestic demand [3] Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic demand has weakened in the second half of the year, influenced by diminishing policy effects, extreme weather, and high base effects, while external demand has exceeded expectations [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to provide more certainty for domestic demand in Q4, with policies aimed at promoting consumption, stabilizing real estate, and expanding investment requiring time for validation [3][4] Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank has expressed a commitment to implementing detailed monetary policy, with current macro and micro liquidity remaining relatively ample [4] - Fiscal policy is under pressure due to the pre-issuance of government bonds, but there are indications of available fiscal resources for smooth transitions into the next year [4] Industry Developments - The National Organization for Drug Procurement has released the 11th batch of centralized procurement documents, indicating a shift towards using anchor prices rather than simply selecting the lowest bid, reflecting a trend against excessive competition in the pharmaceutical industry [8][9] - Recent approvals and clinical trials in the pharmaceutical sector include the launch of a subcutaneous formulation of Pembrolizumab and the initiation of Phase III trials for a new drug by Zai Lab [8][9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.83%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a decline of 1.68% during the week of September 19-25, 2025 [9] - The price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was reported at 31.13 times, with a valuation premium of 146% relative to the CSI 300 index [9] Investment Strategy - The upcoming IPOs in the pharmaceutical sector, including the successful listing of Jinfang Pharmaceutical, indicate an opening window for new listings [9] - Investment strategies should focus on opportunities arising from interest rate cuts, innovation in drug development, and the benefits of optimized procurement rules in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4][61] - The specific company rating for 恒瑞医药 is "Buy" [4][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the 11th batch of centralized procurement announcements, indicating ongoing optimization of procurement rules [4][12] - It emphasizes the trend of reducing internal competition within the pharmaceutical industry, as the new procurement rules will use anchor prices rather than simply selecting the lowest bid [4][60] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs and related industries, particularly in light of upcoming academic conferences showcasing Chinese pharmaceutical companies' R&D progress [4][60] Industry News - The National Organization for Drug Procurement announced the 11th batch of centralized procurement, with procurement agreements to be signed annually based on actual usage and supply conditions [12] - The report mentions that Zejing Pharmaceutical's CD3/DLL3 tri-antibody has entered Phase III clinical trials [13] - The approval of the subcutaneous formulation of Pembrolizumab (Keytruda) by Merck is noted, which offers a more convenient administration method [14] - Jinfang Pharmaceutical successfully listed in Hong Kong, raising approximately 1.44 billion HKD [15] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.83%. However, the pharmaceutical and biological sector fell by 1.68% [47] - All sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry experienced declines, with the largest drop in the pharmaceutical commercial sector at -3.83% [47] Company Announcements - 恒瑞医药 signed a licensing agreement with Glenmark Specialty for the innovative drug SHR-A1811, with potential milestone payments reaching up to 1.093 billion USD [28] - 信达生物 received approval for the new indication of its drug for adult Type 2 diabetes patients [30] - 甘李药业 announced a significant contract with Brazilian partners, with a total expected value of no less than 3 billion RMB [31] - 百奥赛图's A-share issuance has been approved for listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bonds remain a weak asset currently. At the end of September, first focus on changes in the funding situation and the equity market, and approach with a cautious mindset. Also, look ahead to the main - line switching process in the fourth quarter. In 2025, the bond market switched to a relatively clear main - line logic each quarter, and the main - line logic weakened at the end of each quarter. The trading main - line in the fourth quarter may switch to institutional behavior changes and interest - rate cut expectations successively, and the yield curve may show a pattern of steepening first and then flattening [17][18][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Funds Price: Tightening of Quarter - End Funding - From September 19th to September 25th, the central bank made a net open - market injection of nearly 60 billion yuan. On September 22nd, it conducted 30 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. During the statistical period, the overall funds price increased, with the DR007 rising to 1.6%, the R007 rising to 1.8%, and the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield rising to 1.7%, the highest since early June [8] 3.2 Primary Market: Increase in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From September 19th to September 25th, 119 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 708.6 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 77.2 billion yuan. On September 19th, 82 billion yuan of 30 - year special treasury bonds were re - issued at a price of 99.67 yuan, with an annual yield of 2.17%, higher than the secondary - market transaction price. The issuance scale of local special bonds increased seasonally at the end of the month. As of September 25th, 1.23 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds had been issued in 2025, with about 70 billion yuan remaining to be issued; 3.66 trillion yuan of new local special bonds had been issued, with about 240 billion yuan remaining to be issued [10][11] 3.3 Secondary Market: Uptick in Yield Curve - From September 19th to September 25th, the treasury bond yield curve rose again, with increased intraday volatility. The main constraint on the bond market during this statistical period came from the news front. The market expected that the redemption fee adjustment for public bond funds was imminent, which led institutions to actively redeem bond funds. Additionally, the stock - bond seesaw effect still existed, and the relatively strong and volatile equity market also dampened bond market sentiment [12] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: The bond market currently has low sensitivity to fundamentals. From an asset - allocation perspective, weak fundamentals imply a low return rate in the real economy. However, in the stage of low bond coupons and capital losses, bond - type assets also struggle to provide higher comprehensive returns, so the bond market's sensitivity to fundamentals has declined [17] - **Policy**: Incremental policies will mainly cover three directions. First, after the release of August economic data, market expectations for pro - growth policies have increased, with promoting consumption and expanding infrastructure likely to be key areas. The real - estate sector may also see partial relaxation. Second, the fund redemption fee adjustment plan will be officially implemented. Third, there is still a high expectation that the central bank will restart open - market bond purchases to maintain liquidity and stabilize the bond market, which may occur alongside the redemption fee adjustment to smooth out bond market fluctuations. Based on 2024 experience, the central bank mainly buys short - term bonds, so the yield curve is likely to steepen, and caution is needed for long - term bonds [17] - **Funds**: There is still pressure on the cross - quarter funding situation [18]