晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投 资策略报告 工企利润短期波动，后续关注政策部署——2025 年 1-10 月工业企业效益数据 点评 行业研究 把握创新与出海机遇，关注新技术空间——医药生物行业 2026 年度投资策略 报告 大模型厂商发力 C 端应用，关注 AI 应用商业化落地——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 1、 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - From January to October 2025, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises decreased to 1.3%, down from 1.9% in the previous month[1] - In October 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 5.5%, a decline of 27.1 percentage points compared to September[1] - The cumulative profit growth rate varied by enterprise type, with state-owned enterprises showing improvement while private and foreign-invested enterprises experienced a decline, though still maintaining positive growth[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The industrial added value growth rate for October was 4.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from September[1] - The operating revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises fell by 0.6 percentage points to 1.8% in the same period[1] - The profit margin for January to October was 5.25%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a widening decline compared to the first nine months[1] Group 3: Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - Among 41 industrial sectors, 17 sectors achieved positive profit growth from January to October, a reduction of 4 sectors compared to the previous month[1] - High-tech manufacturing, particularly in computer and communication equipment, showed accelerated profit growth, driven by ongoing capital investment and domestic substitution trends[1] - Future investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors like TMT and robotics, driven by AI capital expansion and domestic demand stimulation[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the computer industry [3][30]. Core Insights - The AI large model sector is experiencing rapid iteration, with domestic companies making significant advancements in AI applications, particularly in consumer-facing (C-end) solutions. The recent launch of Alibaba's Qianwen app has achieved over 10 million downloads in its first week, marking it as the fastest-growing AI application in history [14][27]. - The report highlights the collaboration between domestic AI models and accelerated computing chips, which enhances the synergy between algorithms and hardware, laying a solid foundation for large-scale implementation across various industries [27][29]. - The AI computing power market remains robust, with major cloud computing firms maintaining high capital expenditure, supporting the sustained growth of the AI computing sector [29]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments are promoting the application of artificial intelligence across all sectors of consumer goods [14]. - Alibaba's Qianwen app aims to become a future AI life portal, integrating functionalities across various life scenarios such as office work, navigation, health, and shopping [14][27]. - Ant Group's Lingguang AI assistant achieved over 1 million downloads within four days of its launch, indicating strong market interest in AI-driven applications [14]. Company Announcements - Zhong An Ke announced the sale of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guardforce Investment Holdings Pty Ltd, for AUD 16.8 million [16]. - Huashi Technology is investing RMB 22.5 million in Hangzhou Yuchuang Robot Technology Co., Ltd., increasing its stake to 15% [18]. Market Review - From November 20 to November 26, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.54%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry index decreased by 0.90%, with all sub-sectors experiencing declines [21][23]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry is 54.76 times, with a valuation premium of 339.27% compared to the CSI 300 [23]. Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the ongoing competition in the global large model sector, which is expected to drive technological innovation and accelerate the commercialization of AI applications. The focus is on companies that demonstrate strong capabilities in AI technology implementation and scene adaptation [27][29].

Group 1: Key Insights on Light Industry and Textile Apparel - The潮玩 (trendy toys) industry has a promising outlook, with a projected CAGR of 23.2% from 2019 to 2024, expecting to reach 213.3 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the Z generation's pursuit of personalization and cultural value [2] - The pet industry is expected to grow to 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, supported by factors such as family size reduction and the aging population, with the pet food sector projected to reach 158.5 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The metal packaging sector is experiencing revenue and profit improvements, with a shift towards a "value war" and increased overseas business development, enhancing long-term profitability [2] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a gradual recovery in orders as tariff risks diminish, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue changes of +1.44%, -0.75%, and -1.03% respectively [3] - The domestic clothing market is showing weak performance, but policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to boost the sports apparel market, projected to reach 408.9 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Investment strategies highlight the ongoing consumer focus on emotional value, benefiting industries like trendy toys and pets, while the textile sector is poised for recovery due to stable tariff risks and supportive policies [3] Group 2: Key Insights on Machinery Equipment - In October, China's engineering machinery import and export trade reached 4.844 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with an average operating rate of 45.56% for the industry [6] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and a favorable domestic investment strategy [6] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with specific companies like 中联重科 (Zoomlion) and 恒立液压 (Hengli Hydraulic) recommended for "increase" ratings [7] Group 3: Key Insights on Metal Industry - Gold prices are expected to rise due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a projected demand increase from global ETFs and stable industrial demand [8] - Copper supply is anticipated to turn short in 2026, driven by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors and technological advancements, which may support copper prices [8] - Tungsten's strategic value is highlighted by strong demand in high-tech and defense sectors, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated [9] - Cobalt supply is projected to face significant shortfalls due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand from the electric vehicle battery sector expected to rise [9]

业 研 究 | 344 第1 第三 训 14 | | --- | | Bohai Securities | 行 行业年报 黄金势不休，铜钴皆短缺，钨牌价值高 ——金属行业 2026 年度投资策略报告 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 11 月 26 日 钢铁 有色金属 投资要点： 黄金：短期看降息节奏，长期支撑动力仍足 张珂 zhangke@bhzq.com 022-23839062 | 重点品种推荐 | | | --- | --- | | 中金黄金 | 增持 | | 紫金矿业 | 增持 | | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | 华友钴业 | 增持 | 近一年行业指数走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-11-25 2024-12-25 2025-01-25 2025-02-25 2025-03-25 2025-04-25 2025-05-25 2025-06-25 2025-07-25 2025-08-25 2025-09-25 2025-10-25 沪深300 钢铁 有色金属 钴：刚果（金）限制出口，26 年供给缺口扩大 从供给端看，刚果（（ ...

Industry Overview and Price Trends - The steel industry is entering a demand off-season, leading to increasing fundamental pressure on steel prices, which are expected to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [2] - Copper supply remains tight due to accidents at major overseas mines, providing support for copper prices. China's significant waste copper imports may face constraints if the EU restricts exports, potentially tightening domestic copper supply next year [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand in the domestic off-season and a lack of support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [2] - Gold prices face upward pressure due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data and diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials [2] - The lithium industry shows positive fundamentals, with adjustments to trading rules for lithium carbonate contracts aimed at curbing speculative behavior, leading to increased price volatility in the short term [2] - Rare earth prices are expected to fluctuate without significant improvement in downstream demand [2] Weekly Strategy - For the steel industry, the implementation of steady growth policies is expected to improve the competitive landscape and enhance profitability, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3] - The copper industry is anticipated to benefit from tightening global supply due to accidents at major mines, while demand is expected to rise in key sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [3] - In the aluminum sector, the release of new alumina project capacities is expected to keep alumina prices low, while demand from new energy vehicles and high-voltage power grids may support aluminum prices [4] - Gold prices will be influenced by U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, with long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases enhancing gold's attractiveness [4] - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to upgraded export controls, with strategic value in resources and advancements in robotics and new energy sectors driving future demand [4] - The cobalt market is projected to remain tight due to constrained supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from new energy vehicles and consumer electronics is expected to support prices [5] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) receiving "overweight" ratings [6]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [2][29]. Core Views - The construction machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in October, with continued growth in excavator and loader sales. The demand growth logic is clear, supported by favorable domestic construction activity. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand and effective investment, which is expected to boost the industry further as key projects are implemented and equipment renewal policies deepen [2][29]. - The overseas market is also showing promise, with major regions maintaining high levels of construction activity. Recent tariff disruptions have weakened, and leading domestic machinery companies are accelerating their overseas market expansion. Chinese construction machinery products are competitive in terms of technology maturity and cost-effectiveness, making international market development a key focus for the industry [2][29]. Industry News - In October, China's construction machinery import and export trade amounted to USD 4.844 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.07%. The export value was USD 4.668 billion, up 1.29% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 24.2% to USD 176 million [10][11]. - The average operating rate of construction machinery in October was 45.56%, a month-on-month increase of 1.4%, with significant growth in the operating rates of lifting equipment [11][10]. - The rental rate index for aerial work platforms in October was 660 points, showing a slight month-on-month decline but a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [10][11]. Company Announcements - China Railway Signal & Communication Corp won ten significant projects from September to October, with a total bid amount of approximately RMB 2.539 billion, which is about 7.82% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [19][20]. - Jin Di Precision Machinery and Dong Pei Industrial signed a strategic cooperation letter of intent to explore collaboration in humanoid robot components [21]. Market Review - From November 19 to November 25, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.70%, while the machinery equipment sector declined by 2.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.60 percentage points [22][23]. - As of November 25, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 30.33 times, with a valuation premium of 131.21% compared to the CSI 300 [23].

晨会纪要（2025/11/25） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.25） 基金研究 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基指数获得资金净流入——公募基金周报 公司研究 传统主业稳健向前，复合集流体放量已在途——英联股份（002846）公司深 度报告 行业研究 人形机器人量产路线清晰，关注主要企业量产节奏——机械设备行业 2026 年 度投资策略报告 证 四季度服装出口预计向好，关注家居相关政策催化——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/25） 基金研究 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基指数获得资金净流入——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 上周统计区间为 2025 年 11 月 17 日至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，权益市场 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The A-share market is currently in a layout window period as overseas liquidity easing is expected to slow down, with the market showing moderate risk overall [2][3] - Major indices adjusted in the past five trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.44% and the ChiNext Index down 4.98%, indicating a contraction in trading volume [2] - The State Council emphasized the importance of digital transformation in manufacturing and innovation in state-owned enterprises during a recent survey, which may lead to thematic investment opportunities [2] Industry Research - The AI large model continues to iterate, with significant opportunities in domestic AI applications as major companies like Baidu, Alibaba, and Google release new models [6][8] - The computer industry saw a mixed performance, with the Shenwan Computer Industry rising 0.37% while the CSI 300 index fell 1.24% during the same period [6] - The report highlights the strong growth of AI infrastructure globally, with Nvidia's impressive performance injecting momentum into the AI sector [6] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that demonstrate the ability to implement AI technology effectively and adapt to various scenarios [6]

Group 1: Financial Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a general adjustment with all major indices declining, with the STAR 50 index showing the largest drop of 2.13% [2] - As of November 18, the margin trading balance in the two markets was 24,948.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.67 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average daily number of investors participating in margin trading decreased by 3.91% to 437,462 [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - Machinery and Equipment - In October, the production of industrial robots in China increased by 17.90% year-on-year, with a monthly output of 57,900 units, and the cumulative output for the first ten months reached approximately 602,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.80% [8] - The construction machinery sector is expected to maintain growth due to favorable downstream demand driven by infrastructure projects and a reduction in tariff disturbances [7][8] - The mechanical equipment industry is rated as "optimistic," with a focus on domestic brands gaining market share [5][8] Group 3: Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, the pharmaceutical and biological industry saw a recovery in revenue and net profit, with a notable increase in gross and net profit margins [9] - The chemical pharmaceutical sector reported a revenue of 1237.44 billion yuan, with a net profit of 114.64 billion yuan, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [9][10] - The medical device sector showed signs of recovery, with Q3 revenue reaching 604.49 billion yuan, although net profit decreased by 5.1% year-on-year [11]