宏观经济分析报告 5 海外地缘风险仍在，国内再推消费政策 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2026 年 1 月 23 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，经通胀调整后的 2025 年 11 月个人消费支出 环比增长 0.3%，其中商品消费支出环比增速创 2025 年下半年以来最高水 平。尽管个人消费支出价格指数显示的通胀仍具粘性，但在工资和储蓄的双 重支撑下，消费仍然呈现稳步增长态势。另外，美国工业产出在 12 月也出 现超预期增长，早先公布的三季度实际 GDP 环 ...

研 行 行业周报 南（试行）》； （2）商务部等九部门发布关于促进药品零售行业高质量发展的意见； （3）替尔泊肽拟纳入突破性疗法，治疗代谢相关性脂肪性肝病。 券 报 相关研究报告 荣昌生物与艾伯维签署授权 许可协议，关注创新药产业链 业周报 业 九部门发文促进药品零售行业高质量发展，期待药店经营拐点 究 证 分析师： 侯雅楠 SAC NO： S1150524120001 2026 年 01 月 23 日 医药生物 证券分析师 侯雅楠 houyn@bhzq.com 022-23839211 研子究行助业理评级 中药Ⅱ 中性 重点品种推荐 恒瑞医药 买入 （1）恒瑞医药：获得药物临床试验批准通知书； 研 药明康德 增持 （2）百利天恒：iza-bren 用于治疗复发性或转移性食管鳞癌的药品上市申请 获得受理； 究 近三月行业指数走势图 （3）复星医药：①分拆子公司上市的一般风险提示性公告；②控股子公司药 品获临床试验批准。 行情回顾 告 本周（2026/1/16-2026/1/22）上证综指上涨 0.24%，深证成指上涨 0.14%， SW 医药生物下跌 2.97%，子板块全部下跌（中药 II -0.10%＞医药 ...

扩内需、反内卷增量部署可期，市场延续震荡整理——A 股市场投资策略周 报 行业研究 政策赋能算力升级，AI 应用生态深化——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2026/01/23） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.23） 宏观及策略研究 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/23） 宏观及策略研究 扩内需、反内卷增量部署可期，市场延续震荡整理——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（1 月 16 日-1 月 22 日），重要指数涨跌不一；其中，上证综指收涨 0.24%，创业板指收跌 1.17%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 0.58%，中证 500 收涨 2.00%。成 ...

Market Review - In the past five trading days (January 16 to January 22), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.24%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.17% [5] - The trading volume significantly decreased, with a total turnover of 13.80 trillion yuan, and the average daily turnover dropped to 2.76 trillion yuan, a decrease of 683.69 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [10] Economic Growth and Investment - In December 2025, fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the period from January to November 2025; infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 2.2% [26] - The manufacturing investment grew by 0.6% year-on-year, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of 17.2% [26] - Overall, the economic growth rate for 2025 showed a pattern of high growth followed by a slowdown, with the annual target being successfully achieved [26] Policy and Strategy - The government is focusing on strengthening domestic circulation as a key macro policy point, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [31] - The fiscal policy for 2026 will see an increase in total expenditure, with a focus on boosting consumption and ensuring necessary spending intensity [31] - The market is expected to continue its oscillating adjustment, with ETF experiencing continuous net outflows; however, overall trading enthusiasm remains, and market sentiment may fluctuate [32] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics, driven by the expansion of AI capital and domestic substitution processes [32] - The non-ferrous metals industry presents investment opportunities supported by rising prices of certain commodities [32] - Continued attention is warranted for banking and insurance sectors due to the management's push for long-term capital inflows and a low-interest-rate environment [32]

业 周 宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧的风险；供应链波动加大的风险；AI 技术迭代 速度不及预期的风险；AI 应用落地效果不及预期的风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 10 行 行业周报 业 政策赋能算力升级，AI 应用生态持续深化 | 研 | | | | | | | ——计算机行业周报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | 连天龙 | SAC NO： | | S1150525070002 | 2026 | 年 01 | 月 | 22 | | 日 | | | 计算机 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 连天龙 |  | 行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | liantl@bhzq.com | | | （1）工信部：加快突破训练芯片、异构算力等关键技术； | | | | | | | | | | 022 ...

晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 3、风险提示 两融业务成本超预期变动风险；两融监管政策超预期变动风险。 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（1 月 14 日-1 月 20 日）A 股市场主要指数多数下跌，其中中证 500 涨幅最大，上涨了 1.28%；上证 50 跌幅最大，下跌了 1.99%。此外，上证综指下跌 0.61%，深证成指下跌 0.10%，创业板 ...

融资融券周报 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升 ――融资融券周报 | 分析师：王雪莹 | SAC NO：S1150525020001 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 2026 | 1 | 21 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师 | 核心观点： | 王[Table_IndInvest] | 雪莹 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场概况 |  | 022-23839121 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | wangxy4430@bhzq.com | 上周（1 | 月 | 日-1 | 月 | 日）A | 股市场主要指数多数下跌，其中中证 |  | 14 | 20 | 500 | 涨幅最大 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [4] - The companies recommended for "Increase" rating are Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [4] Core Insights - The national construction machinery operating rate for 2025 is projected to be 44.89%, with 18 provinces exceeding 50% [14] - The sales volume of excavators for the entire year of 2025 is expected to reach 235,300 units, with domestic sales of 118,500 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.9% [33] - The domestic humanoid robot industry remains highly prosperous, with several companies initiating IPO processes, indicating significant investment opportunities in the sector [33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to enhance energy efficiency and promote green transformation in key industries [14][15] Industry News - The construction machinery operating rate in 2025 is 44.89%, with leading provinces including Anhui, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi [14] - The port equipment operating rate has shown continuous growth from July to December 2025, indicating a shift in foreign trade dynamics [14] - The guidelines for zero-carbon factory construction emphasize systematic advancement and innovation-driven approaches to reduce carbon emissions in various industries [15] Company Announcements - Tianjin Jinrong Tianyu Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. announced an investment in an industrial fund to enhance its strategic development and market insight [23] - Guangzhou Dayilong Packaging Machinery Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit growth of 51.88% to 86.27% for 2025, driven by market expansion and operational efficiency improvements [24] Market Review - From January 14 to January 20, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.89%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry rose by 1.23%, outperforming the index by 2.11 percentage points [25] - As of January 20, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Industry is 50.55, with a valuation premium of 254.64% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [26]

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for December 2025 shows a stable overall economy with a GDP growth of 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations, but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter [2] - The industrial output value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while retail sales growth was lower at 0.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a decline of 3.8% year-on-year, indicating a weakening investment environment [2] - The economic growth pattern for 2025 indicates a stronger supply than demand, with external demand outpacing internal demand, which is expected to continue into 2026 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects [2] Production Structure - The industrial output growth in December 2025 showed a slight recovery, with high-tech manufacturing outpacing overall growth, indicating an optimization in production structure [3] - The production capacity utilization and sales rates reached their highest levels of the year, suggesting an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in December 2025 was lower than expected, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption [3] - The decline in disposable income growth indicates a constraint on consumer spending capacity, although new policies are expected to support consumption in early 2026 [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where investment growth rates fell significantly [4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize due to government initiatives, while real estate investment continues to struggle with a year-on-year decline of 35.8% [5] Fixed Income Research - Credit bond issuance increased, with a downward trend in overall interest rates, indicating a favorable environment for credit bonds despite a reduction in net financing [6] - The credit spread for various bond types is at historical lows, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for credit bonds [6][8] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is facing limited short-term demand pressure, with expectations of price stabilization due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment [9] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable despite weak supply dynamics, supported by positive long-term demand forecasts [10] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to improve due to demand from electric vehicles and high-pressure power grids, despite current oversupply issues [11] - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. economic data, with long-term demand expected to rise [12]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, the actual GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter[2] - The annual economic growth for 2025 was characterized by a high start and a low finish, influenced by policy timing and demand-supply dynamics[3] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in December 2025 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.0%[2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors showed growth rates significantly above the overall industrial average, indicating a shift in production structure[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 grew by only 0.9% year-on-year, below the expected 1.0% and down from 1.3% in the previous month[2] - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with specific sectors like cultural and communication equipment showing stronger performance[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8% by December 2025, worse than the expected decline of 3.1%[2] - Real estate investment dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[6] Future Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects[3] - Further policy measures are anticipated to support consumer spending and investment recovery in 2026[5][6]