晨会纪要（2025/11/14） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.14） 宏观及策略研究 防止市场急涨急跌，震荡行情将延续——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/11/14） 宏观及策略研究 防止市场急涨急跌，震荡行情将延续——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 行业研究 超节点技术迎来新催化，关注国产 AI 算力及应用——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 1、市场回顾，近 5 个交易日（11 月 7 日-11 月 13 日），重要指数涨跌不一；其中，上证综指收涨 0.54%， 创业板指收跌 0.71%；风格层面，沪深 300 收涨 0.18%，中证 500 收涨 0.13%。成交量方面略有 ...

主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 10 月挖掘机销量为 18096 台，同比增长 7.77%——机械设备行业周报 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.13） 金融工程研究 晨会纪要（2025/11/13） 编辑人 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/11/13） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（11 月 5 日-11 月 11 日）A 股市场主要指数全部上涨，其中中证 500 涨幅最大，上涨了 1.12%；创业 板指涨幅最小，上涨了 0.01%。此外，上证综指上涨 1.08%，深证成指上涨 0.86%，科创 50 上涨 0.02%，沪 深 300 上涨 0.72%，上证 50 上涨 0.72%。 宁前羽（证券分析师，SAC NO：S115052 ...

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds have decreased, with overall changes ranging from -10 BP to -3 BP during the period from November 3 to November 9 [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased on a month-on-month basis, with net financing amounts also rising, except for corporate bonds which showed negative net financing [2] - Secondary market transactions for credit bonds have decreased, while short-term financing bonds saw a slight increase in transaction amounts [2] - Credit spreads have generally narrowed, with most varieties at historical low levels; 1-year credit spreads are within 1%, 3-year and 5-year within 5%, and 7-year around 10% [2] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is entering a consumption off-season, leading to increased pressure on steel prices; some steel mills are planning maintenance, which may reduce supply [6] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply due to overseas mining accidents, while the impact of U.S. government actions on economic data is being monitored [6] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to low alumina prices and domestic demand shifting from strong to weak [6] - Gold prices are influenced by U.S. government actions and geopolitical factors, with long-term trends favoring gold due to central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [6] - Lithium prices are under pressure from production resumption expectations, but strong fundamentals may support prices [6] - Rare earth prices are expected to improve as demand increases with anticipated growth in neodymium-iron-boron production [6][7] Investment Strategy - In the steel sector, policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to improve industry profitability, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [7] - The copper industry is expected to benefit from tightening global supply and improving demand from key sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [7] - The aluminum sector is projected to see improved profitability due to strict capacity limits and demand growth from new energy vehicles [8] - Gold remains attractive in the long term due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [8] - The rare earth sector is poised for reevaluation due to export controls and strategic importance, with ongoing demand from robotics and new energy sectors [8][9] - Cobalt supply is expected to be constrained, while demand from electric vehicles and energy storage will likely keep the market tight [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5]. Core Views - The report indicates an optimistic outlook for the fundamentals of the metal industry, particularly in lithium and rare earths, with expectations of price stabilization in the short term due to various supply and demand factors [2][3][4]. Steel Industry Summary - The steel industry is entering a consumption off-season, with increasing pressure on steel prices due to declining profits at steel mills and planned maintenance leading to expected supply reductions. Short-term steel prices are anticipated to fluctuate [17][24]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total steel inventory was 14.92 million tons, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous period but an increase of 22.87% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of steel on November 7, 2025, was 3,419.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.09% from the previous period and an 8.08% decline year-on-year [35]. Copper Industry Summary - The copper market is experiencing tight supply due to accidents at major overseas mines, which is providing support for copper prices. The report highlights the importance of upcoming U.S. economic data on copper price trends [4][40]. - As of November 7, 2025, the LME copper spot price was $10,700/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from the previous period [42]. Aluminum Industry Summary - The aluminum sector is facing challenges with low alumina prices impacting profits, while domestic demand is shifting from strong to weak. The report suggests that aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [5][44]. - On November 7, 2025, the LME aluminum spot price was $2,800/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.53% from the previous period [45]. Gold Industry Summary - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical factors and U.S. economic conditions, with recent data showing support for gold prices despite pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve statements. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. economic indicators and geopolitical developments [50][52]. Lithium and Rare Earths Summary - The lithium market is expected to see price stabilization in the short term, with the resumption of production at CATL's projects potentially exerting downward pressure on prices. However, strong fundamentals are expected to provide support [3][57]. - The rare earth market is anticipated to improve with increasing demand for neodymium-iron-boron, which is expected to support rare earth prices [3].

Macro and Strategy Research - In October 2025, China's exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.0%, resulting in a trade surplus of 90.074 billion USD [2][3] - The decline in export growth is attributed to high base effects and seasonal factors, but the overall decrease is considered manageable [2] - Looking ahead, the easing of US-China trade tensions and stable global manufacturing PMI suggest that export uncertainties have significantly reduced [3] Price Data Analysis - In October 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive with a notable increase driven by rising food prices and core inflation influenced by international gold prices [4][5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, with improvements in key industries such as coal and photovoltaic equipment due to ongoing capacity management [5][6] Fund Research - The equity market saw most major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.08% [7] - Bond ETF scales reached new highs, indicating strong investor interest in fixed-income products [7][8] - The average return for equity funds was positive, with quantitative funds leading the gains [8] Industry Research - The light industry and textile sectors are under pressure from export declines, with furniture and clothing exports down by 12.66% and 15.96% respectively in October [11][12] - New government policies aimed at accelerating digital transformation are expected to enhance the competitiveness of these sectors in the medium term [11] - The computer industry reported a revenue of 935.835 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.14%, driven by strong performance in software development and IT services [13][14]

晨会纪要（2025/11/10） 编辑人 经济基本面叙事回归——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 适度乐观——利率债 11 月投资策略展望 行业研究 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.10） 宏观及策略研究 海外 AI 算力维持高景气，关注信创产业投资机遇——计算机行业 11 月投资 策略展望 药品目录协商结束，商保创新药目录可期——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/10） 宏观及策略研究 经济基本面叙事回归——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国政府停摆时长创下历史记录。在共和党试图借此机会整顿联邦官僚体系， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and the specific company rating for 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) is "Buy" [2][55]. Core Insights - The 2025 drug directory negotiations have concluded successfully, with the new basic medical insurance drug directory and the first commercial insurance innovative drug directory expected to be released in December [10]. - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have reached an agreement with the U.S. government to significantly reduce the prices of GLP-1 drugs starting in 2026, enhancing drug accessibility for patients [11]. - Blackstone has invested $700 million in the development of sac-TMT, a significant ADC drug [12]. - Fosun Pharma's MEK inhibitor, Luwomei, is set for priority review for a new indication [13]. Industry News - The negotiations for the 2025 drug directory have been successfully completed, with 120 companies participating [10]. - The new drug pricing agreements aim to improve patient affordability and access, with specific price reductions outlined for various drugs [11]. - The market performance of the pharmaceutical sector shows a slight increase, with the pharmaceutical index rising by 0.32% during the week [46]. Company Announcements - 百济神州 (BeiGene) reported a revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.2% [29]. - 晶泰控股 (Jintai Holdings) announced a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to enhance the development of AI-driven bispecific antibodies [30]. - 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) has a drug under review for priority approval for treating patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria [31]. - 百利天恒 (Baili Tianheng) has its HER2 ADC drug included in the list of breakthrough therapy products [32]. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 29.97, with a valuation premium of 133% compared to the CSI 300 index [50]. - The overall market performance for the week shows mixed results, with most sub-sectors experiencing gains, particularly traditional Chinese medicine [46]. Weekly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies related to the drug directory negotiations and those showing improved fundamentals and performance reversals, particularly in the CXO and medical device sectors [55].

Macro and Strategy Research - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, but the fourth quarter may face pressures due to high base effects and diminishing policy impacts, necessitating attention to the implementation of incremental policies under the "counter-cyclical adjustment" framework [2] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut due to a rapid deterioration in the U.S. job market, with expectations for further easing in liquidity both domestically and internationally [3] - The capital market's policy environment is becoming clearer, with ongoing reforms in public funds expected to facilitate the flow of household wealth into the stock market, creating a virtuous cycle [3] - A-shares are expected to enter a phase characterized by more pronounced fluctuations and a slower upward trend, suggesting a strategy of patience and seizing structural opportunities during market volatility [4] Industry Research - The steel industry may see weakened demand as the heating season begins in northern regions, leading to supply contraction due to environmental restrictions, resulting in fluctuating steel prices [6] - Copper prices may lack upward momentum after reaching highs in October, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and supply pressures from overseas mines [6] - The aluminum sector is expected to perform well due to low alumina prices and strict domestic production limits, with demand driven by sectors like new energy vehicles [8] - Gold prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and changes in U.S. monetary policy, while long-term trends suggest increasing attractiveness for gold as a hedge [8] - The lithium market is expected to remain strong due to inventory depletion and unexpected demand from energy storage [6] - The cobalt market is projected to maintain high demand driven by the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, despite potential price increases affecting demand growth [9] - The rare earth sector is poised for support due to improved U.S.-China trade relations and expectations of relaxed export controls, which may enhance overseas demand [7]

Industry Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the comprehensive implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming to integrate AI with various sectors to enhance productivity and innovation [15][43] - Recent performance from North American cloud computing companies shows strong capital expenditure in Q3 2025, with optimistic projections for AI investments in 2026, indicating sustained high demand for AI computing power [43][45] - The urgency for self-sufficiency in critical software areas like EDA and operating systems is increasing due to international tensions, highlighting the importance of key technology breakthroughs for national security [5][43] Industry Data - In September 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the computer industry remained flat month-on-month but decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [18][21] - From January to September 2025, China's software industry generated revenue of CNY 111,126 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with total profits reaching CNY 14,352 billion, up 8.7% [21][26] - The cumulative production of electronic computers in China from January to September 2025 was 261.907 million units, reflecting a 0.4% year-on-year growth [20][21] Company Announcements - Kingsoft Office reported a 13.32% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong performance in its WPS product line [33] - Zhongke Shuguang achieved a 25.55% year-on-year increase in net profit for the same period, supported by its innovative hardware and software solutions [36] Market Performance - From October 1 to October 31, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Industry Index fell by 2.28%, with varying performances across sub-sectors [37][41] - As of October 31, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry was 58.30 times, with a valuation premium of 361.50% compared to the CSI 300 index [38][40] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the computer industry, suggesting that the ongoing effects of AI industry growth and the deepening process of domestic substitution will continue to enhance industry prosperity [6][45] - It is recommended to focus on leading companies that possess the capability to implement AI technologies effectively and adapt to various application scenarios [5][43]

Economic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historical record, with both parties claiming advantages in the ongoing negotiations[3] - In October, the ADP employment numbers exceeded expectations, but showed a significant slowdown compared to earlier in the year, facing risks from layoffs in large companies and the federal government[3] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October remained in contraction for the eighth consecutive month, indicating weak demand and supply, while the Services PMI reached an eight-month high, potentially boosting Q4 economic activity[3] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's manufacturing PMI fell in October, indicating a decline in both domestic and external demand, while the non-manufacturing PMI saw a slight recovery due to holiday and e-commerce promotions[3] - October exports contracted year-on-year due to high base effects and weakening overseas demand, with only automotive, shipbuilding, and integrated circuits showing positive contributions[3] - Domestic policies are actively addressing both long-term reforms and short-term growth targets, with fiscal policies aimed at accelerating effective investments[3] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Downstream real estate transactions showed a slight recovery, while agricultural wholesale prices remained stable; midstream steel prices decreased while cement prices increased[3] - Upstream, coking coal and coke prices fluctuated, with non-ferrous metals and gold prices declining, and crude oil prices also showing a downward trend[3]