晨会纪要（2025/4/3） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 行业专题评述 挖机销售复苏态势明显，关注人形机器人最新进展——机械设备行业 4 月投 资策略展望 金融工程研究 主要指数全部调整，两融余额继续下降——融资融券周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/4/3） [Table_MorningSection] 行业专题评述 挖机销售复苏态势明显，关注人形机器人最新进展——机械设备行业 4 月投资策略展望 宁前羽（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522070001） 1、行情回顾 2025 年 3 月 2 日-2025 年 4 月 1 日，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.06%，申万机械设备行业下跌 0.83%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.77 个百分点，在申万所有一级行业中位于第 22 位。 截至 2025 年 4 月 ...

晨会纪要（2025/4/2） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 公司事件点评 2024 年门店实现净增加，第四季度业绩改善较好——森马服饰（002563）2024 年年报点评 主要产品量价齐升，增储扩产持续推进——中国铝业（601600）2024 年年报 点评 金融工程研究 黄金表现亮眼，主动权益基金发行回暖——公募基金 4 月月报 权益市场主要指数延续下调，医药生物表现突出——公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 晨会纪要（2025/4/2） [Table_MorningSection] 公司事件点评 2024 年门店实现净增加，第四季度业绩改善较好——森马服饰（002563）2024 年年报点评 袁艺博（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150521120002） 1、事件： 公司公告 2024 年年报，去年全年实现营收 146.26 ...

晨会纪要（2025/4/1） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 行业专题评述 关注轻工业数字化转型，头部企业智能化潜力足——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业周报 金融工程研究 量化政策梳理及量化基金盘点——金融工程专题报告 优先关注短债的配置与交易价值——信用债二季报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 美国财政系列：百年财政历史的回顾与反思——宏观经济专题 晨会纪要（2025/4/1） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 美国财政系列：百年财政历史的回顾与反思——宏观经济专题 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、思维变局 全球主要经济体自工业革命以来在财政政策的探索中经历了从自由放任到国家干预、从平衡预算到功能财政 ...

晨会纪要（2025/3/31） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 未定的关税，谨慎的政策——2025 年第二季度宏观经济季报 金融工程研究 政策与资金面共塑走势――2025 年二季度利率债投资展望 信用债收益率与信用利差变化回顾——固定收益专题报告 主动权益基金仓位的高频测算方法研究——基金专题报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/3/31） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 未定的关税，谨慎的政策——2025 年第二季度宏观经济季报 开年以来，美国持续强韧的经济基本面出现动摇，特别是政策反复令企业和居民预期遭受打击。在基本面已 然向"滞胀"方向倾斜的当下，美联储也只能选择继续按兵不动，通过偏鹰的点阵图变化结合偏鸽的货币政 策声明向市场传达其相对中性的政策态度。在未发生超预期的金 ...

Macro and Strategy Analysis - The macroeconomic environment showed a stable start in January-February 2025 despite external adverse impacts and a high base from the previous year, with policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption [2][3] - The liquidity situation in the macro environment remains tight, with the People's Bank of China maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decisions [2][3] - A-shares market liquidity has improved since the beginning of the year, driven by active themes and increased trading volumes, particularly in technology sectors, supported by favorable policies for long-term capital inflow [2][3] A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market will enter a verification phase with the upcoming Q1 earnings reports, which will provide important guidance for annual performance expectations [3] - In Q2, sectors with relatively certain earnings or high dividend yields, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, home appliances, and banking, are recommended for attention [3] - The consumer and TMT sectors may present thematic investment opportunities due to improved market risk appetite driven by expectations of overseas liquidity easing [3] Industrial Enterprise Performance - In January-February 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a reduction of 3.0 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, with improvements in volume and gross margin being the main drivers [4][6] - The industrial added value grew by 5.9% year-on-year, and the operating income increased by 2.8%, indicating a recovery in profitability [6][7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a double-digit profit growth, reflecting the positive impact of previous policies aimed at vehicle replacement [6][7] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market indices experienced adjustments, with the margin trading balance slightly decreasing to 1,923.58 billion yuan, a reduction of 20.39 billion yuan from the previous week [9][10] - The sectors with significant net buying in margin trading included basic chemicals, automotive, and social services, while the computer, electronics, and communications sectors saw less activity [10]

Industry Overview - The global refined copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 19,000 tons by January 2025 according to ICSG [3] - The U.S. government is considering using wartime powers to increase production of critical minerals such as rare earths [3] Company News - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals' subsidiary, Guangxi Gaofeng Mining Co., is investing in the deep mining project of ore bodies 100 and 105 [3] Weekly Industry Strategy and Stock Recommendations - **Steel**: As the peak season characteristics become more evident, steel inventory is expected to continue decreasing. If the fundamentals of steel improve, prices may be supported, but attention should be paid to downstream demand and macroeconomic factors [3] - **Copper**: The copper market remains tight, with a projected supply shortage of 19,000 tons by January 2025. Domestic macro policies are supportive of copper prices, but high prices may suppress downstream demand. The direction of U.S. tariff policies is also a concern [3] - **Aluminum**: The EU may tighten aluminum import controls, potentially impacting domestic aluminum exports. Current expectations of a loose domestic macro economy and solar energy installation demand are supportive of aluminum prices [4] - **Gold**: U.S. tariff policies continue to disrupt the market, while geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Middle East instability, are supporting gold prices [4] - **Lithium**: With lithium salt plants resuming normal production in March, supply is expected to increase. Policies promoting "old-for-new" exchanges and charging infrastructure subsidies may stimulate downstream demand, but an oversupply situation is likely to persist [4] Investment Strategy - **Copper/Aluminum**: Continuous disruptions in copper supply are expected to support prices, while new projects in alumina production may expand profits for electrolytic aluminum plants. Attention should be paid to domestic policies driving demand [4] - **Gold**: Recent increases in gold prices are linked to risk aversion and central bank purchases. Long-term factors such as high U.S. debt and deficit rates, potential re-inflation risks, and complex global geopolitical situations are favorable for gold prices [4] Ratings - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. It also maintains "Buy" ratings for companies including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the general equipment sector is positive, while specialized equipment and transportation equipment are rated neutral. The engineering machinery and automation equipment sectors are rated positively as well [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that ball screws are a core component of precision transmission with a wide range of applications, particularly in machine tools, robotics, and the automotive industry. The demand for ball screws is expected to increase significantly due to the growth in high-end machine tools and the development of humanoid robots [1][3][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Ball Screws as Core Precision Transmission Components - Ball screws are essential for converting rotational motion into linear motion and are categorized into sliding, rolling, and hydrostatic types. Rolling ball screws are favored for their high efficiency and precision, making them widely used in various applications [1][10]. 2. Positive Outlook on Downstream Demand - China is a major consumer market for ball screws, with a supply-demand gap of 4.92 million sets in 2023. The machine tool industry is the largest application area for ball screws, which are critical for machine tool feed mechanisms. The automotive sector, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles, is also expected to drive demand for ball screws [3][27][35]. 2.1 Humanoid Robots as a Growth Point - The production roadmap for humanoid robots is becoming clearer, with Tesla planning to launch its humanoid robot by 2026. Each robot is expected to use 14 ball screws, indicating a significant potential market size for ball screws as production scales up [3][31][34]. 2.2 Growth Driven by High-End Electric Vehicles - The rapid development of domestic electric vehicles is expected to increase the demand for ball screws used in steering and braking systems. The market for electric power steering systems (R-EPS) and electronic mechanical braking systems (EMB) is anticipated to grow, further driving the need for ball screws [3][35][38]. 2.3 Benefiting from High-End Machine Tool Development - The machine tool industry is receiving strong policy support, and as a key component of high-end equipment, ball screws are expected to benefit from the increasing domestic production of high-end machine tools. The market for five-axis CNC machine tools is projected to grow significantly, further enhancing the demand for ball screws [3][42][51]. 3. Company Profiles 3.1 Best - Best Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. focuses on precision components and intelligent equipment, with a revenue of 1.042 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.52% [52][53]. 3.2 Hengli Hydraulic - Hengli Hydraulic Co., Ltd. specializes in hydraulic transmission control systems, achieving a revenue of 6.936 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.32% [55][56]. 3.3 Wuzhou Xinchun - Wuzhou Xinchun Group Co., Ltd. is involved in the production of bearings and automotive parts, reporting a revenue of 2.473 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.76% year-on-year [57][58].

Macro and Strategy Analysis - In January-February 2025, national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, while expenditure was 45,096 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [3][4] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9%, with corporate income tax down 10.4%, indicating pressure on corporate profitability [3][4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11%, likely due to governments activating state-owned resources [3][4] Industry Review - The solid-state battery industry is gaining momentum, with a focus on different technological routes in China and abroad [7][8] - Tianjin is actively supporting the development of the new energy vehicle and battery industry, aiming to enhance production capacity and transition to solid-state battery technologies [7][8] Company Event Review: Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. - In 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved revenue of 213.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.37%, and a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% [9][10] - The company reported record high production for copper and cobalt, with copper production at 650,200 tons, a 54.97% increase [10][12] - Major construction projects are on track, with plans for further expansion in copper production capacity [12] Company Event Review: Haomai Technology - In 2024, Haomai Technology reported revenue of 8.813 billion yuan, a 22.99% increase, and a net profit of 2.011 billion yuan, up 24.77% [14][15] - The company is increasing R&D investment, with a focus on three main business segments showing strong growth [16][17] - The international capacity construction is progressing, with new factories in Thailand and Mexico enhancing production capabilities [17][18] Company Event Review: Zijin Mining Group - Zijin Mining reported 2024 revenue of 303.64 billion yuan, a 3.49% increase, and a net profit of 32.051 billion yuan, up 51.76% [19][20] - The company achieved stable growth in copper and gold production, with copper production at 1.07 million tons [20][21] - Plans for 2025 include further increases in copper and gold production, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency [21]

Revenue Analysis - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, with corporate income tax revenue down 10.4%, indicating pressure on corporate profitability[3] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, likely due to governments activating state-owned resources[3] Expenditure Insights - Public fiscal expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with a spending progress of 15.2%, higher than the average of the past five years[4] - Expenditure in the livelihood and technology sectors increased by 5.4% and 8.7% respectively, surpassing 2024 levels[4] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline, particularly in agriculture, forestry, and water affairs, which dropped by 10.5% year-on-year[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7% year-on-year, significantly impacted by land transfer income[5] - Government fund expenditure showed a slight positive growth, with central government fund budget expenditure increasing by 74.2% year-on-year[5] - The share of central government in fund expenditure is rising, while local government share is decreasing[5] Risk Factors - Economic environment changes could significantly affect tax revenue bases[6] - Unexpected policy changes may alter the scale and pace of fiscal expenditures[6]

Group 1: Light Industry Manufacturing & Textile Apparel - The old-for-new policy is showing significant results, leading to improvements in the operational performance of companies in the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [3] - In January-February, the retail sales of furniture reached 26.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.70% [3] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles amounted to 262.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.30% [3] - From March 5 to March 21, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.43 percentage points, while the textile apparel sector outperformed by 2.90 percentage points [3] - The government has prioritized boosting consumption, with the issuance of a special action plan to stimulate consumption and an increase in the scale of long-term special bonds to 300 billion yuan [3] - The furniture retail sector is expected to see continued recovery, benefiting from the old-for-new policy and the overall expansion of domestic demand [3] Group 2: Mechanical Equipment Industry - The report highlights the clear production roadmap for humanoid robots, which is expected to drive demand for lead screws [5] - Lead screws are essential components in precision transmission, widely used in various applications including aerospace, robotics, and machine tools [5] - The domestic production of lead screws is improving, but there remains a gap compared to international standards [6] - The demand for lead screws is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the machine tool industry and the automotive sector, driven by the rapid development of domestic electric vehicles [6] - The humanoid robot market is projected to create substantial demand for lead screws, with an estimated market size of 14 billion yuan if annual production reaches 500,000 units [6]