晨会纪要（2025/11/18） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.18） 宏观及策略研究 企业表外融资和直接融资规模增加——2025 年 10 月金融数据点评 中美并购重组浪潮回顾——A 股市场投资策略专题 经济阶段性承压，政策显效是关键——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评 基金研究 跨境 ETF 持续净流入，"南向 ETF 通"名单扩容——公募基金周报 行业研究 北方流感样病例占比达近 4 年新高——医药生物行业周报 证 券 服饰为拉动"双十一"重要引擎，包装纸价格延续强势——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业周报 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 晨会纪要（2025/11/18） 宏观及策略研究 企业表外融资和直接融资规模增加——2025 年 10 月金融数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券 ...

晨会纪要（2025/11/17） 编辑人 晨会纪要（2025/11/17） 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.17） 宏观及策略研究 经济有压力，政策有空间——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 主线尚不明晰，利率窄幅震荡——利率债周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 宏观及策略研究 经济有压力，政策有空间——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国政府结束历史最长停摆，国会两院通过的联邦政府临时拨款法案将支撑绝大多数政府部门至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，之后需要再次对拨款法案进行谈判。针对农业部、退伍军人事务部和国会及支持机构的拨款则会 持续到 20 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The A-share market is expected to continue a volatile trend, with measures in place to prevent sharp rises and falls, indicating a preference for a "slow bull" market approach [2][3][4] - Recent market performance shows mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.54% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.71% over the past five trading days [2] - The trading volume has slightly decreased, with a total of 10.15 trillion yuan traded, averaging 2.03 trillion yuan per day, which is a reduction of 22.836 billion yuan compared to the previous five-day average [2] Industry Research - The computer industry is experiencing a new catalyst with the introduction of supernode technology, particularly focusing on domestic AI computing power and applications [5][7] - The recent World Internet Conference highlighted the "Zero Carbon Space Computing Center," showcasing advancements in technology [5] - The performance of the computer industry shows a significant profit increase year-on-year, driven by the ongoing effects of the AI industry and the steady progress of domestic substitution [7] - The release of the world's first single-cabinet 640-card supernode by Inspur is a notable development, indicating a trend towards enhanced AI computing infrastructure [7] - The demand for AI computing power is expected to grow, supported by high capital expenditure from cloud vendors and the gradual formation of a domestically controlled computing power industry chain [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all rose last week, with the CSI 500 showing the largest increase of 1.12% and the ChiNext Index showing the smallest increase of 0.01% [2] - As of November 11, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2,497.40 billion yuan, an increase of 137.51 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average daily number of investors participating in margin trading decreased by 7.02% compared to the previous week, totaling 455,268 [2] Industry Insights - In October, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.77% [5][6] - Sales of loaders in October were 10,673 units, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 27.7% [6] - The machinery equipment sector's performance lagged behind the overall market, with the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index rising only 0.22% compared to the CSI 300 Index's 0.72% increase [5][7] Valuation Metrics - As of November 11, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 31.64 times, with a valuation premium of 135.82% relative to the CSI 300 [7] Future Outlook - The demand for construction machinery is expected to continue growing due to ongoing projects in hydropower and urban renewal, which will support the sector's recovery [7] - The recent advancements in humanoid robots have garnered significant attention, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the related supply chain [7] - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the industry, with specific recommendations to increase holdings in companies such as Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [7]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds have decreased, with overall changes ranging from -10 BP to -3 BP during the period from November 3 to November 9 [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased on a month-on-month basis, with net financing amounts also rising, except for corporate bonds which showed negative net financing [2] - Secondary market transactions for credit bonds have decreased, while short-term financing bonds saw a slight increase in transaction amounts [2] - Credit spreads have generally narrowed, with most varieties at historical low levels; 1-year credit spreads are within 1%, 3-year and 5-year within 5%, and 7-year around 10% [2] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is entering a consumption off-season, leading to increased pressure on steel prices; some steel mills are planning maintenance, which may reduce supply [6] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply due to overseas mining accidents, while the impact of U.S. government actions on economic data is being monitored [6] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to low alumina prices and domestic demand shifting from strong to weak [6] - Gold prices are influenced by U.S. government actions and geopolitical factors, with long-term trends favoring gold due to central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [6] - Lithium prices are under pressure from production resumption expectations, but strong fundamentals may support prices [6] - Rare earth prices are expected to improve as demand increases with anticipated growth in neodymium-iron-boron production [6][7] Investment Strategy - In the steel sector, policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to improve industry profitability, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [7] - The copper industry is expected to benefit from tightening global supply and improving demand from key sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [7] - The aluminum sector is projected to see improved profitability due to strict capacity limits and demand growth from new energy vehicles [8] - Gold remains attractive in the long term due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [8] - The rare earth sector is poised for reevaluation due to export controls and strategic importance, with ongoing demand from robotics and new energy sectors [8][9] - Cobalt supply is expected to be constrained, while demand from electric vehicles and energy storage will likely keep the market tight [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5]. Core Views - The report indicates an optimistic outlook for the fundamentals of the metal industry, particularly in lithium and rare earths, with expectations of price stabilization in the short term due to various supply and demand factors [2][3][4]. Steel Industry Summary - The steel industry is entering a consumption off-season, with increasing pressure on steel prices due to declining profits at steel mills and planned maintenance leading to expected supply reductions. Short-term steel prices are anticipated to fluctuate [17][24]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total steel inventory was 14.92 million tons, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous period but an increase of 22.87% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of steel on November 7, 2025, was 3,419.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.09% from the previous period and an 8.08% decline year-on-year [35]. Copper Industry Summary - The copper market is experiencing tight supply due to accidents at major overseas mines, which is providing support for copper prices. The report highlights the importance of upcoming U.S. economic data on copper price trends [4][40]. - As of November 7, 2025, the LME copper spot price was $10,700/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from the previous period [42]. Aluminum Industry Summary - The aluminum sector is facing challenges with low alumina prices impacting profits, while domestic demand is shifting from strong to weak. The report suggests that aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [5][44]. - On November 7, 2025, the LME aluminum spot price was $2,800/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.53% from the previous period [45]. Gold Industry Summary - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical factors and U.S. economic conditions, with recent data showing support for gold prices despite pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve statements. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. economic indicators and geopolitical developments [50][52]. Lithium and Rare Earths Summary - The lithium market is expected to see price stabilization in the short term, with the resumption of production at CATL's projects potentially exerting downward pressure on prices. However, strong fundamentals are expected to provide support [3][57]. - The rare earth market is anticipated to improve with increasing demand for neodymium-iron-boron, which is expected to support rare earth prices [3].

Macro and Strategy Research - In October 2025, China's exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.0%, resulting in a trade surplus of 90.074 billion USD [2][3] - The decline in export growth is attributed to high base effects and seasonal factors, but the overall decrease is considered manageable [2] - Looking ahead, the easing of US-China trade tensions and stable global manufacturing PMI suggest that export uncertainties have significantly reduced [3] Price Data Analysis - In October 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive with a notable increase driven by rising food prices and core inflation influenced by international gold prices [4][5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, with improvements in key industries such as coal and photovoltaic equipment due to ongoing capacity management [5][6] Fund Research - The equity market saw most major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.08% [7] - Bond ETF scales reached new highs, indicating strong investor interest in fixed-income products [7][8] - The average return for equity funds was positive, with quantitative funds leading the gains [8] Industry Research - The light industry and textile sectors are under pressure from export declines, with furniture and clothing exports down by 12.66% and 15.96% respectively in October [11][12] - New government policies aimed at accelerating digital transformation are expected to enhance the competitiveness of these sectors in the medium term [11] - The computer industry reported a revenue of 935.835 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.14%, driven by strong performance in software development and IT services [13][14]

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historical record duration, with both parties claiming some advantage in the ongoing negotiations [3] - In October, the U.S. ADP employment numbers exceeded expectations, but there are risks of layoffs from large companies and the federal government [3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months, indicating weak demand and supply, while the services PMI reached an eight-month high, potentially boosting Q4 economic activity [3][4] - In China, the manufacturing PMI fell below seasonal expectations, while the non-manufacturing PMI saw a slight recovery due to holiday and e-commerce promotions [4] - Trade data for October showed a decline in export growth, with only specific sectors like automobiles and integrated circuits contributing positively [4] Fixed Income Research - In October, the central bank's liquidity management led to a slight net withdrawal, with overall funding costs remaining low [6][7] - The issuance of government bonds decreased by nearly 700 billion yuan, with the issuance of special local government bonds remaining steady [7] - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 7 basis points to 1.80% by the end of October [7][9] - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious, with potential influences from economic pressures and policy measures expected to stabilize the market [8][9] Industry Research: Computer Industry - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming to integrate AI into various sectors [10] - In September 2025, the producer price index (PPI) for the computer industry remained flat month-on-month but decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [12] - The software industry reported a business revenue of 1,111.26 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0% [12] - The stock performance of the computer industry saw a decline of 2.28% from October 1 to October 31, with varying performances across sub-sectors [12] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with AI technology application capabilities as the industry continues to show upward potential [12] Industry Research: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - The negotiation for the drug catalog has concluded successfully, with expectations for the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog to be published soon [14][15] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the pharmaceutical biotechnology sector rose by 0.32% [15][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring pharmaceutical companies as the results of the centralized procurement and national medical insurance negotiations are expected to be released [16] - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector remains high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.97 times as of November 6, 2025 [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and the specific company rating for 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) is "Buy" [2][55]. Core Insights - The 2025 drug directory negotiations have concluded successfully, with the new basic medical insurance drug directory and the first commercial insurance innovative drug directory expected to be released in December [10]. - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have reached an agreement with the U.S. government to significantly reduce the prices of GLP-1 drugs starting in 2026, enhancing drug accessibility for patients [11]. - Blackstone has invested $700 million in the development of sac-TMT, a significant ADC drug [12]. - Fosun Pharma's MEK inhibitor, Luwomei, is set for priority review for a new indication [13]. Industry News - The negotiations for the 2025 drug directory have been successfully completed, with 120 companies participating [10]. - The new drug pricing agreements aim to improve patient affordability and access, with specific price reductions outlined for various drugs [11]. - The market performance of the pharmaceutical sector shows a slight increase, with the pharmaceutical index rising by 0.32% during the week [46]. Company Announcements - 百济神州 (BeiGene) reported a revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.2% [29]. - 晶泰控股 (Jintai Holdings) announced a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to enhance the development of AI-driven bispecific antibodies [30]. - 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) has a drug under review for priority approval for treating patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria [31]. - 百利天恒 (Baili Tianheng) has its HER2 ADC drug included in the list of breakthrough therapy products [32]. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 29.97, with a valuation premium of 133% compared to the CSI 300 index [50]. - The overall market performance for the week shows mixed results, with most sub-sectors experiencing gains, particularly traditional Chinese medicine [46]. Weekly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies related to the drug directory negotiations and those showing improved fundamentals and performance reversals, particularly in the CXO and medical device sectors [55].

Macro and Strategy Research - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, but the fourth quarter may face pressures due to high base effects and diminishing policy impacts, necessitating attention to the implementation of incremental policies under the "counter-cyclical adjustment" framework [2] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut due to a rapid deterioration in the U.S. job market, with expectations for further easing in liquidity both domestically and internationally [3] - The capital market's policy environment is becoming clearer, with ongoing reforms in public funds expected to facilitate the flow of household wealth into the stock market, creating a virtuous cycle [3] - A-shares are expected to enter a phase characterized by more pronounced fluctuations and a slower upward trend, suggesting a strategy of patience and seizing structural opportunities during market volatility [4] Industry Research - The steel industry may see weakened demand as the heating season begins in northern regions, leading to supply contraction due to environmental restrictions, resulting in fluctuating steel prices [6] - Copper prices may lack upward momentum after reaching highs in October, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and supply pressures from overseas mines [6] - The aluminum sector is expected to perform well due to low alumina prices and strict domestic production limits, with demand driven by sectors like new energy vehicles [8] - Gold prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and changes in U.S. monetary policy, while long-term trends suggest increasing attractiveness for gold as a hedge [8] - The lithium market is expected to remain strong due to inventory depletion and unexpected demand from energy storage [6] - The cobalt market is projected to maintain high demand driven by the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, despite potential price increases affecting demand growth [9] - The rare earth sector is poised for support due to improved U.S.-China trade relations and expectations of relaxed export controls, which may enhance overseas demand [7]