业 药品目录协商结束，商保创新药目录可期 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——医药生物行业周报 分析师： 侯雅楠 SAC NO： S1150524120001 2025 年 11 月 07 日 医药生物 证券分析师 侯雅楠 houyn@bhzq.com 022-23839211 研子行究业助理评级 中药Ⅱ 看好 重点品种推荐 恒瑞医药 买入 近三月行业指数走势图 相关研究报告 ESMO 数据亮眼，关注集采与 国谈进展———医药生物行 业 11 月投资策略展望 2025.11.04 三季报顺利收官，第十一批集 采开标———医药生物行业 投资要点： 行业要闻 （1）2025 年药品目录谈判协商顺利结束； （2）诺和诺德、礼来与美国政府达成协议，GLP-1 药物大降价； （3）Blackstone 7 亿美元加码 Sac-TMT； （4）复星医药 MEK 抑制剂芦沃美替尼新适应症拟优先审评。 公司公告 （1）百济神州：发布 2025 年第三季度报告； （2）晶泰控股：晶泰子公司 AILUX 宣布与礼来战略合作赋能（AI 驱动）双 特异性抗体开发； （3）恒瑞医药：药物拟纳入优先审评程序； （4）百利天恒：T-Bre ...

晨会纪要（2025/11/07） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.07） 宏观及策略研究 流动性环境更趋平衡，"慢牛"特征或将突出——A 股市场 2025 年 11 月投资 策略报告 行业研究 中美贸易关系缓和，锂和稀土景气回升——金属行业 11 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/11/07） 宏观及策略研究 流动性环境更趋平衡，"慢牛"特征或将突出——A 股市场 2025 年 11 月投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、宏观方面 美联储 10 月议息会议如期降息 25BP，主要因美国就业市场的快速恶化；展望而言，因缺乏经济数据指引， 市场对 12 月降息分歧有所加大，不过目前尚处于美 ...

Industry Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the comprehensive implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming to integrate AI with various sectors to enhance productivity and innovation [15][43] - Recent performance from North American cloud computing companies shows strong capital expenditure in Q3 2025, with optimistic projections for AI investments in 2026, indicating sustained high demand for AI computing power [43][45] - The urgency for self-sufficiency in critical software areas like EDA and operating systems is increasing due to international tensions, highlighting the importance of key technology breakthroughs for national security [5][43] Industry Data - In September 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the computer industry remained flat month-on-month but decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [18][21] - From January to September 2025, China's software industry generated revenue of CNY 111,126 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with total profits reaching CNY 14,352 billion, up 8.7% [21][26] - The cumulative production of electronic computers in China from January to September 2025 was 261.907 million units, reflecting a 0.4% year-on-year growth [20][21] Company Announcements - Kingsoft Office reported a 13.32% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong performance in its WPS product line [33] - Zhongke Shuguang achieved a 25.55% year-on-year increase in net profit for the same period, supported by its innovative hardware and software solutions [36] Market Performance - From October 1 to October 31, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Industry Index fell by 2.28%, with varying performances across sub-sectors [37][41] - As of October 31, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry was 58.30 times, with a valuation premium of 361.50% compared to the CSI 300 index [38][40] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the computer industry, suggesting that the ongoing effects of AI industry growth and the deepening process of domestic substitution will continue to enhance industry prosperity [6][45] - It is recommended to focus on leading companies that possess the capability to implement AI technologies effectively and adapt to various application scenarios [5][43]

5 经济基本面叙事回归 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 风险提示：1.地缘政治风险：全球经贸局势不确定性抬升，或对市场风险 偏好形成扰动。2.经济和政策变化超预期：近来海外经济波动加剧，国内 经济正处于转型阶段，基本面超预期变动易引起相关政策调整。 宏观经济分析报告 ――宏观经济周报 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 11 月 7 日 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 周 报 就外围环境而言，美国政府停摆时长创 ...

Industry Overview - The report highlights a recovery in the lithium and rare earth markets due to the easing of China-US trade relations, which is expected to support prices in the short term [6][19]. - The steel industry is facing a potential demand decline as northern regions enter the heating season, leading to increased construction site shutdowns and a tightening of supply due to environmental production restrictions [5][21]. Steel Industry - The steel PMI index for October was reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement but still in contraction territory, with new orders at 47.6% [20]. - Steel production in October showed a recovery with a production index of 49.8%, but overall inventory levels increased due to a stronger supply response compared to demand [20][29]. - The average daily transaction volume of construction steel in October was 101,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.19% but a year-on-year decrease of 16.08% [22]. Copper Industry - The copper market is experiencing supply constraints due to maintenance at smelters and tight anode copper supply, with a projected decrease in output for November [35][36]. - Domestic refined copper production in September was 1.266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.25% [36]. - The LME copper price increased by 5.84% to $10,900 per ton, while the domestic price rose by 5.45% to 87,700 yuan per ton [36]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October increased by 1.13% year-on-year, while alumina production rose by 9.41% [43][44]. - The report anticipates that alumina prices will remain low due to increased supply from the end of the rainy season in Guinea, which may support electrolytic aluminum profitability [5][43]. - The LME aluminum price increased by 8.11% to $2,900 per ton, with domestic prices rising by 2.65% to 21,300 yuan per ton [45]. Precious Metals - The easing of US-China trade tensions has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a potential stabilization in gold prices [54][55]. - COMEX gold prices increased by 3.24% to $4,013.40 per ounce, while SHFE gold prices rose by 5.43% to 921.92 yuan per gram [55]. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in September was reported at 47,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.59%, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector [60]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 8.84% to 80,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a tightening supply-demand balance [60]. - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory trends in optimizing the lithium supply landscape, which may support price stability [58]. Cobalt Industry - Cobalt production in October showed a year-on-year increase of 19.62% for sulfate cobalt, while the price of 1 cobalt rose by 17.25% to 404,500 yuan per ton [65][66]. - The demand for cobalt is expected to remain strong due to the growth in electric vehicle production and energy storage applications [65].

Group 1: Fund Market Overview - In October, the major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85% while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by over 5% [2] - A total of 77 new funds were issued in October, with a total issuance scale of 631.70 billion yuan, and the issuance of index funds accounted for 170.46 billion yuan [2] - The average performance of equity funds and QDII funds declined, while commodity funds saw the largest average increase of 4.61% [3] Group 2: Fund Performance - The large-cap value style outperformed the growth style in October, with a rise of 2.62%, while the small-cap growth style experienced the largest decline of approximately 3.22% [3] - The average decline for mini funds (500 million to 1 billion yuan) was the smallest at 1.79%, with a positive return ratio of 28.87% [3] - The overall position of active equity funds increased to 79.94% as of October 31, up by 2.51 percentage points from the previous month [3] Group 3: ETF Market Overview - In October, the net inflow of funds into ETFs was 137.51 billion yuan, showing a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous month [3] - The top five ETFs with the highest net inflow included gold ETFs and securities ETFs, while the top outflows were from the ChiNext ETF and the CSI A500 ETF [3] Group 4: Industry Research - Light Industry Manufacturing - In the first three quarters, the light industry manufacturing sector reported revenue of 4,638.61 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.15% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 20.85% [9] - The home goods sector saw a revenue increase of 3.84% and a net profit increase of 2.78%, with a net profit margin of 8.27% [9] - The packaging and printing sector experienced significant growth, with revenue and profit increasing by 10.34% and 10.16% respectively, although the gross profit margin decreased by 1.29 percentage points [10] Group 5: Industry Research - Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector saw a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters, with decreases of 2.22% and 9.75% respectively [10] - The apparel and home textile sector managed to reverse a five-quarter decline in net profit, achieving a year-on-year growth of 0.43% in the third quarter [10] - The investment strategy suggests that the "old-for-new" policy is showing effects, and the upcoming consumption boost from major holidays may support demand in the home goods sector [11]

晨会纪要（2025/11/05） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.05） 固定收益研究 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 发行金额小幅下降，收益率仍在下行通道——信用债 11 月投资策略展望 基金研究 基金业绩比较基准征求意见稿发布，公募基金总规模超过 36 万亿元——公募 基金周报 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券 11 月月报 行业研究 证 券 ESMO 数据亮眼，关注集采与国谈进展——医药生物行业 11 月投资策略展望 钢铁业绩明显改善，有色业绩维持增长——金属行业 2025 年三季报综述 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要（2025/11/05） 固定收益研究 发行金额小幅下降，收益率仍在下行通道——信用债 11 月投资策略展望 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 10 月各期限发行指 ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Research - In Q3 2025, the overall A-share market saw improvements in both revenue and net profit, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.9% and 11.5% respectively, benefiting from "anti-involution" and resilient exports [2][3] - All sectors experienced improved revenue and net profit growth rates, with the ChiNext and STAR Market performing relatively better [2] - The mid-cap stocks represented by the CSI 500 index turned positive in revenue growth year-on-year, with significant improvements in net profit growth [2] Group 2: Company Research - Oppein Home (603833) - Oppein Home reported Q3 2025 revenue of 13.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.79%, and a net profit of 1.832 billion yuan, down 9.77% [5] - The company improved its gross margin by 1.65 percentage points to 37.19% through cost control and the implementation of AI technology across its value chain [6][8] - The direct sales channel maintained steady growth, with overseas business showing significant progress, including a 40% year-on-year increase in overseas project orders [8] Group 3: Company Research - Orijin (002701) - Orijin reported Q3 2025 revenue of 18.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.97%, and a net profit of 1.076 billion yuan, up 41.40% [11] - The company achieved a gross margin of 13.52% and a net margin of 6.02%, with effective cost control reflected in a decrease in the expense ratio [13] - The integration of COFCO Packaging has strengthened Orijin's market position, with ongoing investments in overseas production lines in Thailand and Kazakhstan [13] Group 4: Company Research - Semir Apparel (002563) - Semir Apparel reported Q3 2025 revenue of 9.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.74%, but a net profit decline of 28.90% [17] - The company maintained a gross margin of 45.12% and a net margin of 5.38%, with increased sales expenses impacting profitability [18] - The expansion of retail channels and stable growth in children's clothing contributed to revenue stability, with a focus on enhancing consumer experience [18] Group 5: Industry Research - Home Goods - The home goods industry showed signs of stabilization, with a 21.30% year-on-year increase in retail sales for furniture from January to September 2025 [22] - The industry experienced a 3.84% increase in revenue and a 2.78% increase in net profit year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant improvements in the third quarter [22][23] - The reduction in tariffs from US-China trade negotiations is expected to enhance the competitiveness of export-oriented companies in the light industry and textile sectors [23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.844 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.74%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 537 million yuan, a decline of 28.90% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 0.20 yuan [3][6]. - The company has seen a slight decrease in inventory, and profit growth was achieved in Q3. The gross profit margin and net profit margin for the first three quarters were 45.12% and 5.38%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.35 and -2.63 percentage points [6][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its online marketing and opening new offline stores, which has led to an increase in sales expense ratio, impacting net profit margins [6][3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company had a total inventory of 4.142 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.64% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days increasing by 10.67 days to 190.50 days [6][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.695 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.31%, and a net profit of 212 million yuan, up 4.55% year-on-year [6][3]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store count, with a total of 8,236 stores as of the first half of the year, an increase of 96 stores compared to the same period last year [6][8]. Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its EPS forecast for 2025 to 0.36 yuan, maintaining the EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 0.42 and 0.45 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE valuation for 2025 is set at 15.00 times, which is below the average of comparable companies [10][6].

| 上次评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 最新收盘价： | 6.02 | 研 袁艺博 yuanyb@bhzq.com 022-23839135 公 公司点评 司 研 究 费用管控良好，加速海外布局盈利能力改善可期 ——奥瑞金(002701)2025 年三季报点评 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2025 年 11 月 03 日 轻工制造-------金属包装 事件： 点评 金属包装龙头地位稳固，"包 证券分析师 公司公告 2025 年三季报，实现营收 183.46 亿元，同比增长 68.97%，归母净 利润 10.76 亿元，同比增长 41.40%，基本每股收益 0.42 元。 点评： 公司费用率管控效果较好，存货周转率加快 证 券 研评级究：助理 增持 上次评级： 增持 最近半年股价相对走势 今年前三季度，公司毛利率与净利率分别为 13.52%和 6.02%，同比分别下降 3.78 和 0.93 个百分点。我们认为，公司毛利率下降，一方面与整合中粮包装 规模效应释放仍需时间有关，另一方面与部分产品原材料价格波动有一定相 关性。公司持续推进降本增效，费用率管 ...