晨会纪要（2025/05/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.09） 宏观及策略研究 市场维稳举措加码，底部获得再度夯实——A 股市场 2025 年 5 月投资策略报 告 行业研究 国内外工程机械开工提升明显，关注需求改善——机械设备行业 5 月投资策 略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/05/09） 宏观及策略研究 市场维稳举措加码，底部获得再度夯实——A 股市场 2025 年 5 月投资策略报告 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、宏观方面 一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，实现良好开局；其中，"两新两重"相关领域实现较快增长。而伴随外部环境 急剧变化所带来的"四稳"压力，后续可关注政治局会议部署举 ...

基金研究 晨会纪要（2025/05/08） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.08） 固定收益研究 短债性价比低，拉久期需求提升——信用债 5 月投资策略展望 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 科创 50 表现优异 ，宽基指数延续净流出——公募基金周报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部调整，两融余额大幅下降——融资融券 5 月月报 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额继续下降——融资融券周报 公司研究 证 券 价格上涨驱动业绩，在建项目稳步推进——中金黄金（600489）2024 年年报 及 2025 年一季报点评 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/05/08） 固定收益研究 城投债方面，稳增长和防系统性风险的背景下，城投违约的可能性很低，城投债仍可作为信用债重点配置 品种。城投债大势将由化债与发展的合力决定，短期信用风险无虞，现阶段城投债策略依然可以积极。 2、风险提示 政策推动不及预期，违约超预期，统计口径偏差，不构成投资建议。 ...

渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.07） 晨会纪要（2025/05/07） 宏观及策略研究 编辑人 全 A 净利边际改善，价格和政策有支撑的领域占优——A 股市场 2025 年一季 报业绩综述 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 基金研究 宽基指数大幅净流入，主动权益基金发行遇冷——公募基金 5 月月报 公司研究 主要产品量价齐升，增持彰显股东信心——中国铝业（601600）2025 年一季 报点评 证 行业研究 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 券 家居企业业绩已有改善，持续关注宠物行业高景气——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业 5 月投资策略展望 要 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 3、风格层面 以中证 1000 为代表的小盘股实现了营收和净利同比增速的双双改善；与此同时，以中证 500 为代表的中盘 股也在营收同比增速回落的背景下实现了净利同比增速回升，显示中、小盘股盈利能力的改善。 4、行业方面 晨会纪要（2025/05/07） 宏观及策略研究 全 A 净利边际改善，价格和政策有支撑 ...

证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 研究助理 基金月报 宽基指数大幅净流入，主动权益基金发行遇冷 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2025 年 5 月 6 日 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150123060017 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 中小板指表现优异，宽基指 数流出规模较大—公募基金 周报 2025.04.29 权益仓位整体上升，增配汽 车、有色；减配电力设备、 非银—公募权益类基金 2025 年一季报持仓分析 2025.04.25 ETF 步入"4 万亿"时代，主动 权益基金仓位下降—公募基 金周报 2025.04.21 核心观点： ⚫ 上月市场回顾： 上月，市场主要指数估值多数下调。市盈率方面，跌幅靠前的创业板指、沪深 300 的估值历史分位数分别降至 4.5%和 44.4%。市净率方面，只有科创 50 估值分位数 上涨，最终值为 36.1%。行业方面，31 个申万一级行业中只有 4 个行业上涨。上涨 的行业分别为美容护理、农林牧渔、商业贸易和公用事业；跌幅前 5 的行业为电气 设备、 ...

| 略 | | 投资策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_MainInfo] 全 A | 净利边际改善，价格和政策有支撑的领域占优 | | 研 | | ——A 股市场 2025 年一季报业绩综述 | | 究 | 分析师： 宋亦威 | SAC NO： S1150514080001 2025 年 05 月 06 日 | | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] | | | 宋亦威 | 投资要点： | | | 022-23861608 |  2025Q1 全 A 单季营收同比增速较 2024Q4 出现回落，而单季归母净利 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 同比增速由负转正显著改善。具体而言，2025Q1 全 单季营收和净利 A | | | [Table_Author] 严佩佩 | | | | | 同比增速分别为-0.2%/3.7%，前者较 2024Q4 回落 1.7 个百分点，后者 | | | 022-23839070 SAC No:S1150520110001 | 较 2024Q4 回升 17.5 个百分点。 | | ...

晨会纪要（2025/05/06） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.06） 宏观及策略研究 晨 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 8 会 纪 受高基数及外部环境影响，制造业景气有所回落——2025 年 4 月 PMI 数据点 评 公司研究 2024 年业绩小幅增长，今年实现对中粮包装并表——奥瑞金（002701）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 一季度利润增长超 40%，今年业绩向好可期待——欧派家居（603833）2025 年一季报点评 整家战略助推客单价，公允价值变动扰动一季度业绩——索菲亚（002572） 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/06） 宏观及策略研究 受高基数及外部环境影响，制造业景气有所回落——2025 年 4 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S115052011 ...

公 公司点评 司 一季度利润增长超 40%，今年业绩向好可期待 研 ——欧派家居(603833)2025 年一季报点评 | 究 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 年 | | --- | | 2025 | | 04 | | 月 | | 30 日 | 轻工制造-------定制家居 证券分析师 袁艺博 yuanyb@bhzq.com 022-23839135 | 上次评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 最新收盘价： | 64.92 | 研 评 善，期待今年逐步复苏——欧 派家居（603833）事件点评 评 2024.10.29 盈利预测与评级 2025.01.20 单季度经营边际有改善，期待 后续逐步复苏——欧派家居 （603833）2024 年三季报点 公司作为行业龙头，大家居战略深化推进，并持续提升经营质量。在中性情 景下，我们维持公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 4.54 元/4.84 元/5.17 元的预测，对 应 2025 年 PE 为 14.31 倍，高于可比公司均值，但考虑到公司为行业龙头企 业，可享有一定估值溢价，故维持"增持"评级。 风险提 ...

Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased to a historical high, with most yields continuing to rise [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds has increased, with medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds seeing positive net financing [2] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on the impact of growth policies on the bond market [2] Fund Research - The performance of the SME board index has been outstanding, while there has been significant outflow from broad-based indices [4] - The public fund market is facing pressure due to fee reforms and increased market volatility, leading to a noticeable trend of industry differentiation [5] - Equity funds have performed well, with mixed-asset funds showing positive returns, while bond funds have had average performance [5] Industry Research - The real estate market is stabilizing due to supportive policies, with improved transaction conditions and a positive outlook for housing demand [3] - The pet food market is experiencing a trend towards premiumization, with significant growth expected in the domestic pet market [9] - The home furnishing sector is showing signs of improvement, although some companies are still facing challenges [10] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 1.592 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 48.50%, but faced a decline in Q1 2025 revenue [12] - The outdoor and chip businesses have shown growth, with the chip business achieving a revenue increase of 66.56% in 2024 [15] - The company is focusing on enhancing its core brands and optimizing supply chain management to improve profitability [13][14]

Macro and Strategy Research - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to "make good use of existing policies," indicating sufficient incremental reserves to address current economic conditions [2][4] - The meeting acknowledged the positive economic trends and the need for high-quality development to counter external uncertainties, while also recognizing the challenges posed by domestic instability and external shocks [3][4] - Fiscal policies are set to accelerate, with a focus on increasing bond issuance and ensuring support for employment and enterprises, while monetary policies will provide additional support for the real economy [4][5] - Consumer spending remains a priority, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing service consumption to stabilize the economy [5][6] - The meeting highlighted the importance of fostering new productive forces and addressing key core technology challenges, particularly in the technology sector [6] - Measures to stabilize foreign trade and support struggling enterprises were reiterated, with a commitment to high-level opening-up and assistance for businesses affected by external pressures [8] Company Research Oppein Home Group (603833) - The company reported a revenue decline of 16.93% to 18.925 billion yuan in 2024, marking the first instance of both revenue and profit decline in its 30-year history [11] - Despite the revenue drop, the company improved its profitability and operating cash flow through supply chain reforms and cost management, achieving a gross margin increase of 1.75 percentage points to 35.91% [11][12] - The company’s contract liabilities saw significant growth by 96.60% year-on-year by the end of 2024, indicating potential recovery in performance as domestic furniture sales improve [12][13] Aima Technology (603529) - The company achieved a revenue of 6.232 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.82%, with net profit increasing by 25.12% to 605 million yuan [15] - The company benefited from the "old-for-new" policy, which significantly boosted sales and improved product structure, leading to enhanced profitability [15][16] - Aima's operating cash flow surged by 91.14% in Q1 2025, demonstrating effective operational efficiency and cash management [15]

Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.34 yuan [12] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, and a net profit of 91.155 million yuan, up 62.13% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.31 yuan [12] - The company's gross margin improved due to higher margins on staple and canned products, with gross margins increasing by 1.88 and 4.02 percentage points year-on-year to 28.16% and 31.87% respectively in 2024 and Q1 2025 [12][13] - The company focused on enhancing its own brand marketing, leading to a significant increase in brand recognition and sales, with a 131% year-on-year growth in GMV during the Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 [13][15] - The company expanded its overseas market presence, entering 9 new countries in 2024, and its overseas revenue growth rate was 14.62% for the year, with further production capacity expansion planned for Canada and the US [15][16] Industry Research - The overall number of equity funds increased to 6,774 by the end of Q1 2025, with a total scale of 74,529.42 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,005.15 billion yuan from the previous quarter [9] - The average equity fund position increased, with flexible allocation funds seeing the largest rise of 1.44 percentage points to 71.90% [9][10] - The industry saw an increase in allocation towards automotive and non-ferrous metals, while reducing exposure to electric power equipment and non-bank financials [10][11]