融资融券周报 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升 ――融资融券周报 | 分析师：王雪莹 | SAC NO：S1150525020001 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 2026 | 1 | 21 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师 | 核心观点： | 王[Table_IndInvest] | 雪莹 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场概况 |  | 022-23839121 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | wangxy4430@bhzq.com | 上周（1 | 月 | 日-1 | 月 | 日）A | 股市场主要指数多数下跌，其中中证 |  | 14 | 20 | 500 | 涨幅最大 ...

业 研 究 行 行业周报 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89% | 分析师： | 宁前羽 | SAC NO： S1150522070001 2026 年 1 月 21 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | 证券分析师 | | 行业要闻 | | | 宁前羽 | |  | | | ningqy@bhzq.com | | （1）2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%。 | | | 022-23839174 | | | | | | | （2）工信部等五部门联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导意见》。 | | | | |  公司公告 | | | 重点品种推荐 | | | | | | | （1）津荣天宇发布关于对外投资产业基金的公告。 | | | 中联重科 | 增持 | | | | 恒立液压 | 增持 | （2）达意隆发布 2025 年度业绩预告，归母净利润同比增长 51.88%-86.27%。 | | | 捷昌驱动 | 增持 | | | 周行情回顾 20.00% 2026 年 1 月 14 日至 202 ...

崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.21） 宏观及策略研究 总量平稳背后的结构差异——2025 年 12 月经济数据点评 固定收益研究 发行及成交规模增长，收益率多数下行——信用债周报 行业研究 晨会纪要（2026/01/21） 编辑人 国家统计局公布 2025 年第四季度和 12 月经济数据，第四季度实际 GDP 同比增长 4.5%、预期 4.5%、前值 4.8%；规上工业增加值当月同比增长 5.2%、预期 5.0%、前值 4.8%；社会消费品零售总额当月同比增长 0.9%、 预期 1.0%、前值 1.3%；固定资产投资累计同比增速-3.8%、预期-3.1%、前值-2.6%。 地缘局势扰动，金价仍有支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2026/01/21） 宏观及策略研究 总量平稳背后的结构差异——2025 年 12 月经济数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S115 ...

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, the actual GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter[2] - The annual economic growth for 2025 was characterized by a high start and a low finish, influenced by policy timing and demand-supply dynamics[3] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in December 2025 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.0%[2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors showed growth rates significantly above the overall industrial average, indicating a shift in production structure[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 grew by only 0.9% year-on-year, below the expected 1.0% and down from 1.3% in the previous month[2] - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with specific sectors like cultural and communication equipment showing stronger performance[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8% by December 2025, worse than the expected decline of 3.1%[2] - Real estate investment dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[6] Future Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects[3] - Further policy measures are anticipated to support consumer spending and investment recovery in 2026[5][6]

核心观点： 本期（1 月 12 日至 1 月 18 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率全部下 行，整体变化幅度为-8 BP 至-1 BP。本期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债、 公司债、短期融资券发行金额增加，中期票据、定向工具发行金额减少；由 于到期规模环比增加，信用债净融资额环比减少，各品种净融资额均减少， 企业债、中期票据、定向工具净融资额为负，公司债、短期融资券净融资额 为正。二级市场方面，本期信用债成交金额环比增长，短期融资券成交金额 减少，其余品种成交金额增加。收益率方面，本期信用债收益率多数下行。 信用利差方面，本期中短期票据、城投债信用利差有所分化，企业债信用利 差多数收窄。分位数来看，多数品种利差均处于历史低位，7 年期品种分位 数相对较高。绝对收益角度来看，供给不足和相对旺盛的配置需求将推动信 用债延续修复行情，尽管多空因素影响下震荡调整难以避免，但总体而言， 信用债全面走熊的条件依旧不充分，长远来看未来收益率仍在下行通道，逢 调整则增配的思路依然可行。目前多数品种配置的性价比不高，追高仍需谨 慎，票息策略在当前的配置思路可适度乐观，交易思路保持乐观，择券重点 仍是盯住利率债变化趋势的同时关注 ...

行 行业周报 地缘局势扰动，金价仍有支撑 ——金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2026 年 1 月 20 日 钢铁 有色金属 证券分析师 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 研究助理 重点品种推荐 | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 中金黄金 | 增持 | | 华友钴业 | 增持 | | 紫金矿业 | 增持 | | 中国铝业 | 增持 | 近三月行业指数走势图 20% 40% 沪深300 申万钢铁 申万有色 -20% 0% 2025-10 2025-11 2025-12 铜：当前基本面对铜价带动力不足，美联储降息预期走弱和美国关税担忧缓 解对铜价有压制，但市场对 2026 年铜行业基本面预期仍较好。短期在补库预 铝：氧化铝方面，国内供应过剩的局面依旧未改，进口矿供给维持充足。电解 铝方面，宏观贸易摩擦风险升温将压制市场情绪，短期铝价或小幅回调，关注 下游备货进程和库存动向。 黄金：美国经济数据好坏参半，市场对美联储 1 月降息预期降温。当前地缘 局势持续动荡，有望为金价提供 ...

晨会纪要（2026/01/20） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.20） 宏观及策略研究 企业部门信贷表现好于居民部门——2025 年 12 月金融数据点评 固定收益研究 绿色债券浅析——固定收益专题报告 基金研究 首只千亿黄金 ETF 诞生，宽基指数资金大幅流出——公募基金周报 行业研究 证 着力培育服务消费，体育赛事、IP+消费将直接受益——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2026/01/20） 宏观及策略研究 企业部门信贷表现好于居民部门——2025 年 12 月金融数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 3、M2 同比增速提升 2025 年 12 月，M1 同比增速在高基数效应下出现回落，M2 同比增速则有所提升，其中，非银金融机构新 增存款表现好于 ...

2026.01.05 风险提示 本周策略 行 近三月行业指数走势图 相关研究报告 美国关税政策迎变化，我国情 绪消费市场将超 4 万亿—— 轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 1 月 16 日，国常会研究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措。会议指出， 要加快培育服务消费新增长点，支持新业态新模式新场景竞相涌现，增加优 质服务供给，解决好信用、标准、安全管理等问题，促进服务消费提质惠民。 商务部部长王文涛近日表示，今年，我国将聚焦交通、家政、演出、体育赛 事等重点和潜力领域，积极培育服务消费新增长点。1 月 13 日，《上海市促 进服务业提质增效和消费提振扩容联动发展的若干措施》（简称《若干措施》） 正式出台，围绕金融、信息服务、交通运输等 6 个重点行业领域推出 28 条举 措。与以往通过发放消费券、举办购物节等促进消费手段不同，本次政策聚 焦于服务业改革，从优化供给和扩大消费两端共同发力，加快培育服务供给 和消费需求的新增长点。综合国常会与上海《若干措施》相关内容来看，IP+ 消费、体育赛事等将成为今年中央与地方扩大内需、扩大服务消费的重要抓 手，建议持续关注体育装备、运动服饰、"谷子经济"等相关受益领域。 业 ...

基 金 研 究 核心观点： ⚫ 市场回顾： 上周统计区间为 2026 年 1 月 12 日至 2026 年 1 月 16 日，权益市场主要指数 涨跌不一，其中，涨幅最大的是科创 50，上涨 2.58%。31 个申万一级行业 中 13 个行业上涨，涨幅前五的行业是计算机、电子、有色金属、传媒和机 械设备；跌幅前五的行业是国防军工、房地产、农林牧渔、煤炭和银行。 ⚫ 公募基金市场概况： 基金周报 首只千亿黄金 ETF 诞生，宽基指数资金大幅流出 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2026 年 1 月 19 日 市场热点方面：1、国内第一只规模超千亿黄金 ETF 诞生；2、港股通 ETF 最新扩容正式生效。 基金表现方面，权益类基金中，偏股型基金涨幅最大，平均上涨 1.35%， 正收益占比 74.98%；固收+型基金平均上涨 0.32%，正收益占比 87.09%； 纯债型基金平均上涨 0.10%，正收益占比 98.67%；养老目标 FOF 平均上涨 0.58%，正收益占比 98.49%。另外，QDII 基金平均上涨 0.97%，正收益占 比 69.31%。 通过对主动权益基金行业仓位的测算， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Green bonds are securities raised for green industries, projects, or economic activities, and have become an important financing tool. As of the end of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale in China reached 5.32 trillion yuan [2]. - The development of China's green bond market can be divided into three stages: the exploration and launch stage (2015), the standardization development stage (2016 - 2020), and the system improvement stage (2021 - present) [2][16]. - By the end of 2025, the annual issuance scale increased from 207.231 billion yuan in 2016 to 1.079283 trillion yuan, and the number of issuances rose from 89 to 834. The stock of green bonds was 2,014, with a market size of 2.464521 trillion yuan. Green bonds are suitable for long - term investment [3][109]. - Green bonds generally have a "green spread" over non - green bonds, which has weakened in the past three years but still supports pricing. They are more suitable as a stable portfolio base rather than a source of significant excess returns [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Green Bond Development 1.1 Green Bond Concept - Green bonds are securities that raise funds for green industries, projects, or economic activities. They are divided into four types according to the "China Green Bond Principles (2022)" and play an important role in global green finance [13]. 1.2 Policy Context - China's green bond market has established a relatively complete system. The development is divided into three stages: - Exploration and launch stage (2015): The People's Bank of China and the National Development and Reform Commission issued relevant documents, marking the official start of the green bond market [16][17]. - Standardization development stage (2016 - 2020): Multiple departments issued a series of policies to improve the regulatory mechanism, project catalog, and evaluation and certification mechanism [16][18]. - System improvement stage (2021 - present): Policies continued to be refined, the standard system was integrated with international standards, and cross - border green financing advanced steadily [16][25]. 2. Green Bond Value 2.1 Value to Issuers - Green bonds generally have a lower issuance interest rate than non - green bonds, showing a "green spread," which has weakened in the past three years. They can also access overseas ESG funds [34]. 2.2 Value to Investors - Green bonds are fixed - income tools. Their credit risk is mainly determined by the issuer's quality and credit enhancement. They are suitable as a stable portfolio base and can meet institutional ESG and sustainable investment goals. Their tradability has also improved [46]. 3. Green Bond Issuance Statistics 3.1 Green Asset - Backed Securities - Their issuance rhythm has different stages. From 2016 - 2018, it was in the start - up phase; 2019 - 2020 saw market expansion; 2021 entered the accelerated development stage; 2022 - 2023 maintained a high - level operation; 2024 - 2025 had a decline in scale. They are mainly short - term and ultra - long - term products, with concentrated underlying assets [48][49]. 3.2 Non - Asset - Backed Green Bonds - The issuance showed phased characteristics. It expanded steadily from 2016 - 2020, jumped significantly in 2021, reached a high in 2022, declined in 2023, and significantly increased in 2025. State - owned enterprises are the main issuers, and bank - to - bank market is the main trading platform. Their issuance interest rate has been declining, and the term is mainly medium - short term [59][61][71]. 4. Green Bond Stock and Transaction Analysis 4.1 Green Bond Stock Analysis - As of the end of 2025, the stock of green bonds was 2,014, with a market size of 2.464521 trillion yuan. Financial bonds accounted for nearly half of the stock, followed by medium - term notes and asset - backed securities. The stock was concentrated in short - and medium - term bonds, a few industries, and regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [83][90][95]. 4.2 Green Bond Transaction Analysis - The secondary - market trading volume of green bonds has been rising with fluctuations, and the turnover rate has shown a trend of "falling from a high level, fluctuating in the central range, and weakening again in recent years." Compared with credit bonds and financial bonds, the turnover rate of green bonds is relatively low, but it has stable trading and periodic surges. The valuation of green bonds shows a clear stratification [100][101][105]. 5. Investment Viewpoint - Similar to the core viewpoints, green bonds have good development prospects, supply - side expansion, and are suitable for long - term investment and portfolio optimization [108][109][110].