Market Overview - The A-share market indices all rose last week, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 4.34%, while the Shanghai 50 Index had the smallest rise of 2.46% [2] - As of December 23, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 25,236.76 billion yuan, an increase of 265.98 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average daily number of investors participating in margin trading was 402,310, a decrease of 0.92% from the previous week [2] Industry Insights - The electronic, communication, and power equipment sectors saw significant net buying in margin trading, while the food and beverage, computer, and basic chemical sectors experienced less net buying [3] - The machinery equipment sector's performance was strong, with the industry index rising 3.26%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.52 percentage points [7] - In November, the import and export trade volume of engineering machinery in China reached 54 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [5] Company Announcements - Nepean Mining announced a delay in some fundraising projects [5] - Yongda Co. announced it received a bid notification [6] - Zhongchuang Zhiling announced an external investment [6] Future Outlook - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue to grow due to favorable domestic construction activity and the implementation of major projects [7] - The production of industrial robots in November was approximately 70,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.60%, with expectations for the total production in 2025 to exceed 700,000 units [8] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the machinery equipment industry and recommends focusing on companies like Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [8]

晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.24） 固定收益研究 成交规模增长，信用利差走阔——信用债周报 公司研究 享西部资源红利，乘铜市景气东风——西部矿业（601168）深度报告 行业研究 美国通胀缓和，金价获得支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 中央和地方持续积极优化房地产政策，托举政策持续发力，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，对推动房地 产止跌回稳发挥了积极的作用。尽管当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，但随着稳楼市各项政策显 效，房地产市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。基于城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效 为主的阶段这一论断，下阶段的目标是要积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用 力推动房地产市场高质量发展，后续政策出台的节奏和力度值得期待。地产债方面，销售复苏进程将对债 券估值 ...

Group 1: Fund Research - The market review for the week of December 15 to December 19, 2025, indicates that most major equity indices declined, with the largest drop being 2.99% for the Sci-Tech 50 index. Among 31 first-level industries, 19 saw an increase, with the top five performing sectors being commercial trade, non-bank financials, beauty care, leisure services, and chemicals [2] - The public fund market saw a private fund management scale reaching 22.09 trillion yuan, and the China Securities Index Co., Ltd. released the China ASEAN Digital Economy Theme Index [2] - Bond funds performed well, with fixed income plus funds showing the largest average increase of 0.10%, and 76.57% of them achieving positive returns. In contrast, equity funds averaged a decline of 0.57%, with only 39.09% showing positive returns [3] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 871.36 billion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for the largest inflow of 552.23 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume reached 4,596.24 billion yuan [3][4] Group 2: Industry Research - The report highlights the emergence of the "reward economy," which refers to consumers purchasing non-essential goods or services to gain immediate pleasure and psychological relief in response to work and life pressures. This new consumption model is rapidly developing among younger demographics and is expected to drive domestic demand and consumption [5][7] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed by 2.46 percentage points during the same period [7] - The report suggests continued attention to sectors benefiting from the "reward economy," such as trendy toys, pet consumption, and domestic fashion brands, as they are expected to thrive in the evolving consumer landscape [5][7]

Company Research - The report focuses on Gongchuang Turf (605099), a leading global artificial turf company, which has shown steady growth with a revenue increase of 9.52% and a net profit growth of 30.89% in the first three quarters of the year [10] - The company has a strong presence in the leisure turf segment, with over 70% of its revenue coming from this category, and it exports to more than 140 countries, with over 95% of its revenue generated from overseas [10] - The global artificial turf market is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 9.28% in industry size and 11.21% in sales area from 2015 to 2023, reaching €4.141 billion by 2027, representing a 28.64% increase from 2023 [11] - Gongchuang Turf has established a robust R&D system, with R&D expenses of 71.82 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 10.58% increase year-on-year, significantly higher than its peers [11] - The company has a planned production capacity of 17.6 million square meters after the completion of its overseas production bases, with a high capacity utilization rate maintained above 95% from 2020 to 2024 [11] Industry Research - The report highlights the recent National Medical Security Work Conference, which outlines eight key tasks for 2026, focusing on supporting the development of commercial health insurance and promoting innovation in the pharmaceutical industry [13][16] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a decline of 1.23% in the week of December 12-18, 2025, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [13] - The report suggests that with the implementation of the new drug catalog and commercial insurance for innovative drugs, there are investment opportunities in pharmaceutical companies whose products enter the medical insurance system [16] - The report also notes that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown weak reactions to recent catalysts, leading to a downgrade of the industry rating from "positive" to "neutral" [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has been downgraded from "Positive" to "Neutral" [2][52] - The rating for 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) is maintained at "Buy" [2][52] Core Insights - The National Medical Security Work Conference was held to summarize the work during the 14th Five-Year Plan and deploy key tasks for 2026, focusing on high-quality development of medical insurance [9][10] - The new drug directory and commercial health insurance innovation drug directory are expected to be implemented, suggesting potential growth for pharmaceutical companies whose products enter the medical insurance system [52] - The report highlights the importance of optimizing the payment structure for pharmaceutical companies and the investment opportunities arising from this [52] - Recent advancements in AI healthcare applications are noted, with a recommendation to focus on related medical services and pharmaceutical commercial sectors [52] Industry News - The National Medical Security Bureau has issued a three-year action plan to improve the quality and efficiency of medical insurance fund settlement [11][12] - The second-generation cardiac muscle troponin inhibitor, 星舒平® (Afikaytai), has been approved in China for treating obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy [13] - The AI health application "蚂蚁阿福" (Ant Health) has entered the first tier of AI applications, reflecting strong demand for health management [13] Industry Data - The price of vitamin raw materials as of December 18, 2025, remains stable, with Vitamin B1 at 238 RMB/kg and Vitamin D3 at 160 RMB/kg [14] - The Chinese herbal medicine market price index has decreased by 16% year-on-year, with specific herbs like 连翘 (Forsythia) and 党参 (Codonopsis) showing significant price drops [18] Company Announcements - 和铂医药-B (HaploMed) has signed a global strategic cooperation and licensing agreement with Bristol-Myers Squibb, potentially receiving up to 1.125 billion USD in milestone payments [30] - 翰森制药 (Hansoh Pharmaceutical) has entered a licensing agreement with Glenmark for the drug 阿美替尼 (Amivantamab) for non-small cell lung cancer [31] - 诺诚健华 (Innovent Biologics) has received approval for the III phase clinical trial of 奥布替尼 (Orelabrutinib) for systemic lupus erythematosus [33] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.71%, with the SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index declining by 1.23% [45] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has a TTM P/E ratio of 50.11, with a valuation premium of 259% compared to the CSI 300 [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, it's hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Policy expectations, asset price - to - ratio, and institutional behavior are still the main influencing factors. In 2026, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase [1][22]. - After the content of the Central Economic Work Conference is clear, the bond market within the year will revolve around institutional behavior and the equity market. The bond market is expected to be mainly volatile, with a high probability of a steeper yield curve. Ultra - long bonds will still have high volatility, and it's not advisable to overly expect an end - of - year rush - to - buy market [1][22][24]. - One can moderately grasp the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds with a maturity of 7 years or less, as well as the term spread of 5Y - 3Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event Reviews 3.1.1 Financial Data - As of the end of November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.5%. In the first eleven months, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the balance of M2 at the end of November increased by 8% year - on - year. In November, social financing increased year - on - year, with an increase in corporate bond financing scale. However, government bond financing and on - balance - sheet credit financing were still drag factors. RMB loans decreased year - on - year in November. In terms of structure, short - term corporate loans improved, while medium - and long - term corporate loans still decreased year - on - year, and the bill financing impulse was obvious. The household sector continued to de - leverage. The year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both declined in November [7]. - Looking ahead, policy - based financial instruments are expected to boost credit, but the high base of government bond financing remains a drag. The year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock may decline slightly, and the progress of household deposit transfer is still worthy of attention [7]. 3.1.2 Economic Data - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industries above the designated size was 4.8%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%. Domestic demand continued to be weak, and effective demand still needed to be boosted. In terms of production, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down slightly in November. In terms of investment, the decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment further expanded in November. In terms of consumption, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods slowed down in November, while the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of service consumption increased slightly [8][9]. - Looking ahead, it is expected that the "anti - involution" and a slight weakening of exports will restrict production in December. The growth rate of industrial production in 2025 is expected to be about 5.8%, the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be about 2.0%, the infrastructure investment is expected to show a recovery trend with a growth rate of about 1.0% in 2025, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 is expected to be around 3.7% [9]. 3.1.3 Fiscal Data - From January to November 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 1.4% year - on - year; the national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 13.7% year - on - year. In terms of public finance revenue, the year - on - year increase in tax revenue was slightly expanded. In terms of public finance expenditure, the year - on - year growth rate of expenditure declined, mainly due to the earlier expenditure rhythm this year. In terms of the expenditure structure, the three focuses of public finance expenditure from January to November were people's livelihood, science and technology, and green, and efforts were further increased in the science and technology field in November. In terms of government - funded revenue and expenditure, the revenue side was still dragged down by the land market [10]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the Central Economic Work Conference continued to describe fiscal policy as "more proactive", emphasizing the guarantee of necessary expenditures. In terms of rhythm, it will "actively act ahead" and "reasonably speed up the allocation and disbursement of funds". In terms of structure, attention can be paid to strengthening the financial guarantee for major national strategies, accelerating debt resolution, and tax system reform [10]. 3.2 Funding Prices: Central Bank's Injection of Cross - Year Funds - During the period from December 12th to December 18th, the central bank's net injection of funds in the open market was 134 billion yuan. The central bank over - renewed 200 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase agreements and conducted 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to support the cross - year funding situation. On December 18th, DR014 and R014 increased by 10bp and 6bp respectively, while DR001 and DR007 remained stable. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined slightly, which is in line with the seasonal characteristic of the decline in CD yields at the end of the year [11][12]. 3.3 Primary Market: Decrease in Supply Scale - From December 12th to December 18th, a total of 46 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market. There was no end - of - year surge in the issuance of special bonds. Since December, the issuance frequency of the China Development Bank and the Export - Import Bank of China has also decreased, and the supply pressure of interest - rate bonds is limited [14]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Steeper Yield Curve - During the period from December 12th to December 18th, the yields of Treasury bonds with different maturities showed differentiation. The yields of medium - and short - term Treasury bonds mostly declined, while the yields of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds increased slightly, showing a steeper yield curve. The decline in medium - and short - term interest rates may be related to the loose funding situation. The winning bid rate of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation may have decreased compared with that in September, driving up the short - term bullish sentiment. The long - term interest rate has a strong gaming sentiment, with a larger single - day fluctuation range. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has a psychological support level of 1.85%, while the 30 - year Treasury bond yield has less upward resistance and greater fluctuation [16]. 3.5 Market Outlook 3.5.1 Fundamental Aspect It's difficult to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing currently. Policy expectations, asset price - to - ratio, and institutional behavior are still the main influencing factors. In 2026, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase, and price signals are the key [1][22]. 3.5.2 Policy Aspect - In 2026, fiscal policy will "actively act ahead" and "reasonably speed up the allocation and disbursement of funds", with a similar rhythm to 2025. In terms of expenditure structure, it will "strengthen the financial guarantee for major national strategies and promote more funds and resources to be invested in people", and supporting people's livelihood remains an important direction [1][22]. - Monetary policy emphasizes "striving to achieve economic growth and price recovery" and supplements the original statement of "matching the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations". Reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and liquidity injection tools of various maturities will be used flexibly [1][22]. 3.5.3 Funding Aspect As the cross - year period approaches, funding prices may rise slightly, but with the central bank's open - market operations, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds is limited [1][22].

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - October non-farm payroll data showed a significant reduction in government employment, resulting in negative growth[1] - November data indicated minimal job growth, with a potential overestimation of 60,000 jobs per month as suggested by Powell[1] - Unemployment rate increased slightly in November, reaching the upper level of the Fed's forecast, amid rising labor participation[1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - November inflation data fell below expectations, but its accuracy is questioned due to data collection issues[1] - Despite calls for significant rate cuts from the White House, expectations for a rate cut in January appear hesitant[1] - The European Central Bank maintained its policy rate, adjusting economic growth forecasts for 2026 while indicating slow inflation decline due to service sector stickiness[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - November's economic fundamentals showed a preference for new productive investments and service consumption, with a divergence between stable supply and weak demand[3] - Weak credit data indicated a stagnant real estate cycle and reduced consumer loans due to subsidy cuts[3] - Fiscal policy is expected to slightly strengthen in December, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs[3] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Downstream real estate transactions showed a slight recovery, while agricultural wholesale prices increased[3] - Midstream steel and cement prices have rebounded, while upstream coal and coke prices are rising, with mixed trends in non-ferrous metal prices[3]

Macro and Strategy Research - The A-share market is experiencing a confirmed bottom, with expectations for a cross-year rally to unfold [2] - In the past five trading days (December 12-18), major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.08% and the ChiNext Index falling by 1.79% [2] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.81 trillion yuan, down by 491.08 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Economic data for November shows a 2.6% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment, indicating weakening investment demand [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized expanding domestic demand as a top priority for the coming year, with a focus on service consumption in areas like culture, tourism, and elderly care [3] Strategy Insights - The A-share market is expected to gradually recover from low levels as the cross-year and spring market approaches [4] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing capital expansion in AI and domestic substitution of computing power [4] - The power equipment and non-ferrous metals industries are highlighted as having investment potential due to high global demand for energy storage and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [4] - The banking sector is also noted for potential allocation opportunities, supported by a low-interest-rate environment and a return to performance benchmarks by public funds [4] Industry Research - Xiaomi has launched an open-source MoE model and a web-based AI chat service, indicating a deepening layout in AI applications [5][7] - The domestic first space computing joint laboratory is set to be established, showcasing advancements in AI technology [5] - The computer industry saw a decline, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index dropping by 0.26% and the computer sector down by 2.01% from December 11 to December 17 [5] - The report suggests that the acceleration of large model product iterations by leading domestic and international firms will drive technological innovation and application [6]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - National general public budget revenue for January-November 2025 reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[2] - National general public budget expenditure totaled 248,538 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%[2] - Government fund budget revenue was 40,274 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.9%[2] - Government fund budget expenditure increased to 92,124 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7%[2] Public Finance Insights - The growth rate of public finance expenditure decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to January-October 2025, necessitating a December growth rate of over 20% to meet annual targets[3] - Expenditure focus areas included livelihood, technology, and green initiatives, with technology spending growth reaching 7.9%[3] - Social security and employment spending grew by 8.1%, indicating strong support for livelihoods[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline of 7.7%, with only environmental spending showing positive growth[3] Government Fund Challenges - The year-on-year decline in government fund revenue was exacerbated by a 2.1 percentage point increase in the decline rate, primarily due to land market issues[4] - Government fund expenditure growth slowed to 13.7%, influenced by high base effects from 2024's special bond issuance[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total expenditure, indicating a proactive fiscal approach for 2026[8] - Key focus areas for future spending include optimizing expenditure structure and addressing local government financial pressures[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry has been downgraded from "Positive" to "Neutral," while maintaining a "Buy" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [2][29] Core Insights - Xiaomi has released an open-source MoE model and launched a web-based AI chat service, which is expected to deepen its AI application layout [13] - The AI application sector is experiencing high prosperity, with major domestic companies accelerating their C-end application layouts [27] - The recent release of OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model is aimed at unlocking more economic value and enhancing capabilities in various tasks [14] Industry News - Xiaomi's new open-source MoE model, Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Flash, features 309 billion parameters and is designed for AI agents, achieving significant efficiency improvements [13] - The first domestic space computing joint laboratory is set to be established, focusing on autonomous and controllable space computing chip development [13] - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model is now available for developers and professional users, with different versions tailored for various tasks [14] Market Review - From December 11 to December 17, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry Index dropped by 2.01%, with all sub-sectors experiencing declines [20][21] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry is 201.44 times, with a valuation premium of 1416.92% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [21] Weekly Strategy - The ongoing iteration and upgrade of large model products by leading domestic and international companies are expected to accelerate technological innovation and application landing [27] - Companies like Google are expanding their computing power to meet the rising demand for AI services, while domestic chip companies are leveraging financing channels to enhance their product development [27]