Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The US economy showed resilience in Q2 2025, with GDP growth increasing by 3.0%, up 3.5 percentage points from Q1, primarily due to inventory investment and a reversal of import drag[12] - The unemployment rate in the US fell unexpectedly, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added in June, indicating a strong labor market despite some signs of weakness[12] - The European Central Bank maintained its policy rate in July, with most officials agreeing on the current monetary policy's support for the economy, but potential rate cuts remain if tariffs significantly impact the economy[23] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in June, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, with manufacturing investment declining by 2.7 percentage points to 5.1%[30] - Social retail sales growth fell to 4.8% year-on-year in June, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, influenced by the fading effects of consumption policies and high base effects[33] - The CPI in June rebounded to a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, ending three months of negative growth, while PPI continued to decline, indicating ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector[38] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The Central Political Bureau emphasized stability, continuity, and flexibility in future policies, with a focus on structural monetary policies to support small and medium enterprises and boost consumption[51] - Fiscal policy is expected to be implemented with precision, with a projected fiscal space of over 6 trillion yuan for the second half of the year, supporting key areas like infrastructure[56] - The risk of geopolitical tensions and unexpected economic changes poses significant challenges to domestic economic stability and policy effectiveness[57]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [5][61]. Core Insights - Recent collaboration between Heng Rui Medicine and GSK is expected to boost sentiment in the innovative drug sector, highlighting investment opportunities in pipeline realization, performance growth, and business collaborations [5][60]. - The 11th batch of centralized procurement is underway, suggesting a focus on pharmaceutical and medical device sectors that may benefit from optimized procurement rules [5][60]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring performance reversals in related sectors, particularly in CXO companies, which have shown strong performance amid improving overseas demand and recovering orders [5][60]. Industry News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued a plan for the implementation of a childcare subsidy system, which may impact the healthcare sector positively [14]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration released guidelines for the immediate settlement of basic medical insurance funds, aiming to enhance efficiency in fund disbursement [14]. Company Announcements - Heng Rui Medicine signed a collaboration and licensing agreement with GSK, which includes a $500 million upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion for successful project developments [28]. - WuXi AppTec reported a 20.64% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 101.92% [29]. - CSPC Pharmaceutical announced an exclusive licensing agreement with Madrigal for the development of SYH2086, with potential total payments of up to $2.075 billion [30]. - Tigermed announced the acquisition of a stake in Japan's MICRON for approximately ¥484 million (about 23.48 million RMB) [31]. Market Review - For the week of July 25 to July 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.90%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.64%. In contrast, the pharmaceutical and biological sector rose by 2.74%, with most sub-sectors showing positive performance [52]. - As of July 31, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was 30.83, with a valuation premium of 161% compared to the CSI 300 index [57].

Macro and Strategy Research - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, influenced by seasonal factors and extreme weather [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.1%, still above the threshold, with construction and service sectors experiencing declines due to adverse weather conditions [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 50.2%, reflecting a slowdown in expansion [4] Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for detailed implementation of macroeconomic policies to stabilize market expectations and address risks [6][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for continuous fiscal and monetary policy support, including accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [7][8] - Consumer spending is to be boosted through measures that enhance livelihood security, while investment will focus on high-quality construction projects [8][9] Industry Research: Dairy Industry in Tianjin - Tianjin is developing a billion-level dairy industry, with the total output value exceeding 11.68 billion yuan in 2023, and the city is a leader in DHI measurement technology for dairy cows [14][17] - The dairy industry is facing challenges, with a projected decrease in national dairy cow inventory by over 500,000 heads in 2024, leading to increased losses for smaller farms [14][18] - The market for flavored milk is growing, with the leading company, Haihe Dairy, achieving a revenue of 1.098 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.9% [17][18]

Market Overview - The important indices mostly declined in the recent trading days from July 25 to July 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.90% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.73% [4] - The trading volume continued to increase, with a total of 9.11 trillion yuan and an average daily trading volume of 1.82 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 479.50 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [10] Policy and Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations. The statements regarding employment and inflation remained consistent with previous meetings, indicating a cautious approach towards inflation risks [26] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) identified stabilizing the market as a primary task [27] Investment Strategy - The market is currently undergoing a consolidation phase, but there are mid-term upward opportunities due to policy support aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of the capital market and increasing capital inflows [27] - Investment opportunities are identified in the following sectors: 1. TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), biopharmaceuticals, and national defense industries, driven by AI and overseas expansion [27] 2. Financial sector opportunities in line with the goal of stabilizing the capital market [27] 3. Reallocation opportunities in power equipment and certain resource sectors due to capacity governance [27] Industry Performance - In the recent trading period, the majority of industries saw declines, with notable gains in the communication, biopharmaceutical, and electronics sectors, while coal, non-ferrous metals, and construction decoration sectors experienced significant declines [21][24]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its role in achieving the 2035 long-term goals, highlighting that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for foundational work and significant breakthroughs [1][2] - The meeting acknowledged the positive economic performance in the first half of the year and indicated that macroeconomic policies will continue to be effective and timely, focusing on stabilizing market expectations and addressing risks [2][3] - Consumption policies will focus on enhancing livelihood security and expanding consumer demand, with measures such as increasing pensions and implementing childcare subsidies to boost consumer capacity [3][5] Group 2 - Investment strategies will shift towards "high-quality promotion" of key projects, moving from merely increasing efforts to enhancing quality and efficiency in construction [3][5] - The report highlights the ongoing emphasis on new productive forces in the technology sector, with a shift from quantity to quality in developing competitive industries [5] - In the real estate sector, the focus will be on urban renewal and improving existing stock rather than large-scale expansion, indicating a stabilization in real estate investment [5]

Manufacturing Sector Insights - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the sector[2] - Production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, returning to the contraction zone[2] - New export orders declined by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, influenced by weakened export demand amid global manufacturing slowdowns[2] Price and Inventory Trends - Raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices showed a significant slowdown in contraction due to rising international crude oil prices and domestic price adjustments[2] - Overall inventory levels for raw materials and finished goods continued to decrease, indicating a sustained destocking trend[2] Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3%, while small enterprises' PMI dropped to 46.4%, both down by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a slight recovery, with PMI increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 49.5%[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector's index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, impacted by extreme weather conditions affecting construction progress[3] - Service sector index slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, indicating stability at the threshold[3] Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, reflecting a slowdown in economic expansion[3] - Future outlook suggests continued pressure on manufacturing due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions, with potential for further declines in August[3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a structural adjustment due to declining milk prices and rising production costs, leading to increased losses among dairy farms and a reduction in the number of dairy cows [1][22][27] - The dairy product market is dominated by a few major players, with a notable performance in flavored milk and online sales channels, indicating potential growth areas despite overall consumption decline [2][42][61] - Tianjin is emerging as a significant urban dairy industry cluster, leveraging advanced DHI measurement technology to enhance milk production efficiency [3][67][76] Summary by Sections 1. China's Dairy Industry and Production Adjustments - Inner Mongolia is the largest milk-producing region, accounting for over 19% of national milk production in 2024 [1] - The average price of fresh milk has decreased by 11.75% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, leading to a cost-price inversion for dairy farms [22][25] - The number of dairy cows in China is projected to decrease by over 500,000 heads in 2024 compared to 2023 [27][36] 2. Dairy Product Market Dynamics - The production of dairy products from large-scale enterprises is expected to decline by 1.90% in 2024, with a total output of 29.62 million tons [2][42] - The market share of flavored milk products is increasing, with online sales channels showing significant growth potential [2][61] - The average per capita consumption of dairy products in China is only 40.5 kg/year, significantly lower than the recommended dietary intake and below levels in developed countries [54] 3. Tianjin's Dairy Industry Development - Tianjin's dairy industry has achieved an annual output value exceeding 11.68 billion yuan, with a slight increase in dairy cow inventory in 2024 [3][70] - The DHI measurement technology in Tianjin is leading nationally, with a full coverage of DHI testing for all dairy cows in the region [3][76] - The average milk yield per cow in Tianjin is significantly higher than the national average, showcasing the effectiveness of local dairy management practices [3][70]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all rose last week (July 23 - July 29), with the STAR 50 showing the largest increase of 5.33%, while the Shanghai 50 had the smallest rise of 0.59% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.78%, the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.71%, the ChiNext Index went up by 4.14%, the CSI 300 gained 0.80%, and the CSI 500 increased by 2.30% [2] - As of July 29, the margin trading balance in the two markets reached 1,976.307 billion yuan, an increase of 49.208 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The financing balance was 1,962.087 billion yuan, up by 48.647 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance was 14.220 billion yuan, increasing by 0.056 billion yuan [2] - The average number of investors participating in margin trading daily was 470,483, which is a 10.97% increase from the previous week [2] Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, and electronics industries had the highest net financing inflows last week, while the oil, agriculture, and comprehensive industries had the lowest [3] - The industries with a higher proportion of financing buy-in relative to transaction volume were non-bank financials, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals, whereas textiles, light manufacturing, and social services had lower proportions [3] - In terms of securities lending, the non-bank financial, electric equipment, and pharmaceutical industries had the highest net selling amounts, while basic chemicals, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals had the lowest [3] Specific Securities - As of July 29, the market ETF financing balance was 98.208 billion yuan, an increase of 0.283 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance was 6.370 billion yuan, up by 0.454 billion yuan [3] - The top five ETFs by net financing inflow were: - Fuguo Zhongzhai 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF - E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF - Hang Seng Technology ETF - Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF (QDII) - GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF [3] - The top five individual stocks by net financing inflow were: - Xinyi Sheng (300502) - China Power Construction (601669) - Cambricon Technologies (688256) - Northern Rare Earth (600111) - Minsheng Bank (600016) [3] - The top five individual stocks by net securities lending outflow were: - China Ping An (601318) - BYD (002594) - Hengrui Medicine (600276) - Dongfang Electric (600875) - WuXi AppTec (603259) [3]

Fixed Income Research - The report indicates that the overall issuance guidance rates for credit bonds have mostly decreased, with a change range of -5 BP to 2 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased on a month-on-month basis, with net financing amounts for medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds rising, while corporate bonds, company bonds, and targeted tools saw a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds has increased, with all varieties showing growth; however, credit bond yields have risen by 4-14 BP [2] - The report suggests that despite the recent yield adjustments, the conditions for a trend reversal in credit bonds remain insufficient, but the support from insufficient supply and strong demand may lead to a potential decline in yields [2] - The report emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic approach to current configurations and trading strategies, focusing on the trends in interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - In the steel sector, prices have rebounded, leading to some replenishment intentions downstream, with macro "anti-involution" news positively impacting steel prices [5] - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to insufficient fundamental support, with attention on the outcomes of the July Politburo meeting and US-China trade negotiations [5] - Lithium prices have been positively influenced by "anti-involution" news, but there is still significant pressure from oversupply, necessitating caution regarding speculative demand [5] - The rare earth sector has seen a significant increase in exports, with June exports rising by 32.02% month-on-month, indicating potential for further price strength due to improving export demand [5] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [6]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" and the non-ferrous metals industry is also rated as "Positive" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in steel prices, driven by downstream replenishment intentions and macroeconomic "anti-involution" messages, while cautioning against price volatility due to speculative demand [4][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for demand growth in special steel sectors due to high-altitude corrosion environments [3][16] - The report notes that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to insufficient fundamental support, despite positive macro sentiment [3][48] - Lithium prices are supported by "anti-involution" news, but there are concerns about oversupply and speculative demand [3][54] - The report indicates a significant increase in China's rare earth exports in June, with expectations for further growth in July [3][67] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel prices have rebounded, with downstream purchasing intentions increasing; however, speculative demand may lead to price fluctuations [4][16] - As of July 25, the total steel inventory was 13.30 million tons, down 0.11% from the previous week and down 22.78% year-on-year [26] - The average price index for steel on July 25 was 3,606.18 CNY/ton, up 4.16% from the previous week [39] Copper - The copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which supports prices; however, the market is currently in a seasonal lull [41] - As of July 25, LME copper spot prices were 9,800 USD/ton, up 1.25% from the previous week [46] Aluminum - The aluminum market is under pressure from seasonal demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation; however, macroeconomic sentiment remains positive [48] - As of July 25, LME aluminum spot prices were 2,700 USD/ton, up 2.53% from the previous week [49] Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to reduced risk aversion following trade agreements between the US and other countries [51] - As of July 25, COMEX gold closed at 3,338.50 USD/oz, down 0.51% from the previous week [51] New Energy Metals - The lithium sector is expected to see accelerated capacity clearance, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising to 74,000 CNY/ton, up 12.12% from the previous week [55] - The report highlights the potential for new demand in the lithium sector due to government policies supporting solar energy [54] Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The report notes a significant increase in the price of light rare earths, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 513,500 CNY/ton, up 7.31% from the previous week [67] - Tungsten concentrate prices rose to 188,000 CNY/ton, up 4.44% from the previous week [69]