Group 1 - The net financing amount of credit bonds is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated [1] - In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with the exception of medium-term notes, which saw a decrease in issuance amount [11] - The overall trend in credit bond yields remains low, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yields [59] Group 2 - The real estate market is transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on quality improvement, supported by ongoing policy optimization [60][61] - The recovery in real estate sales is expected to significantly impact bond valuations, with a focus on companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [61] - Investment strategies should prioritize high-quality state-owned enterprises and well-secured private enterprise bonds, while also considering opportunities in undervalued real estate bonds [61] Group 3 - The likelihood of default on urban investment bonds is low, making them a key focus for credit bond allocation [3] - The reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating under strict regulations, presenting opportunities for "entity-type" financing platforms [3] - Investment strategies should favor mid-to-short-term credit bonds while maintaining a cautious approach to trading strategies [3]

Industry Overview - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to continue its weak performance in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with demand likely to remain subdued and production to contract, leading to slight fluctuations in steel prices [2][17][18] - In the copper sector, production activities on both supply and demand sides are anticipated to be affected by the Spring Festival, resulting in continued inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to post-holiday demand verification and geopolitical developments [2][32] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight contraction in production, with sufficient supply of bauxite from Guinea. Post-holiday production recovery in alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants may support alumina prices [3][41] - Gold prices are expected to experience increased volatility in the short term, influenced by geopolitical risks and domestic political uncertainties in the U.S. [3][51] Steel Sector - The steel PMI index for January 2026 is reported at 49.9%, indicating continued contraction but a slowdown in the rate of decline, with steel prices showing slight fluctuations [17] - In December 2025, the average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 98,600 tons, down 1.81% month-on-month and 10.95% year-on-year [18] - The total crude steel production for December 2025 was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.40% [19] Copper Sector - China's electrolytic copper production in January increased by 0.10% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year, with a total production of 1.326 million tons in December 2025 [32][33] - The LME copper inventory rose by 18.69% to 175,000 tons, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 91.81% to 156,900 tons during the same period [33][40] Aluminum Sector - The production of metallurgical-grade alumina in January 2026 decreased by 1.78% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, with total production at 8.011 million tons in December 2025 [41][42] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in December 2025 was 3.874 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.87% [42] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 13.28% to $4,907.50 per ounce from December 31, 2025, to January 30, 2026, while silver prices rose by 20.10% to $85.25 per ounce during the same period [51][52] Lithium and Cobalt - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 32.08% to 158,500 yuan per ton, while the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 64.58% to 158,000 yuan per ton [53] - The average price of 1 cobalt decreased by 4.99% to 447,000 yuan per ton during the reporting period [65] Rare Earths - The report notes a recovery in the supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxides, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 23.41% to 748,500 yuan per ton [73]

分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2026 年 2 月 3 日 主动权益类基金发行市场升温，资金大幅流出沪深 300ETF 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150525070001 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 《公开募集证券投资基金业 绩比较基准指引》正式发布 —公募基金周报 2026.01. 26 首只千亿黄金 ETF 诞生，宽 基指数资金大幅流出—公募 基金周报 2025. 01.19 市场成交火热，华泰柏瑞沪 深 300ETF 分红创历史新高— 公募基金周报 2025. 01.12 核心观点： ⚫ 上月市场回顾： 1 月沪深市场主要指数全部上涨，其中，中证 500 和科创 50 涨幅居前，上涨幅度均超过 12%，上证 50 涨幅最小，涨幅为 1.17%。31 个申万一级行业中 26 个行业上涨，涨幅前 5 的行业分别为有色金属、传媒、石油石化、建筑材料和化工；下跌的行业为银行、家 用电器、非银金融、交通运输和农林牧渔。 新开户情况方面，根据上交所最新披露的数据， ...

行 行业月报 业 地产链估值修复可延续，白卡、瓦楞纸迎涨价 研 ——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业 2 月投资策略展望 | | | 袁艺博 | SAC | NO： | S1150521120002 | | 年 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分析师： | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2026 | | | | | | | | | | | | 02 | | | | | | | | | | | | 月 03 | | | 究 | | | | | | | | | | 轻工制造 纺织服饰 投资要点： 行业要闻 证券分析师 （1）多家房企称已不被要求上报三道红线，仍需提交资产负债率指标。 袁艺博 yuanyb@bhzq.com （2）2025 年造纸和纸制品业实现利润总额 443.0 亿元，同比下降 13.6%。 022-23839135 行业发展情况 研子究行助业理评级 （1）2025 年，社会消费品零售总额家具类为 2,091.90 亿元，同比增长 14.62%。 证 家居用品 中 ...

证券分析师 公共财政支出侧重民生、科技和环保——2025 年财政数据点评 晨会纪要（2026/02/03） 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.03） 宏观及策略研究 产需两端双双走弱，压制制造业景气——2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据点评 基金研究 证监会修订信息披露规则，宽基指数资金延续大幅流出——公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2026/02/03） 宏观及策略研究 公共财政支出侧重民生、科技和环保——2025 年财政数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、事件： 2026 年 1 月 30 日，财政部公布 2025 年财政收支情况： （1）全国一般公共预算收入 216045 亿元，同比下降 1.7%；全 ...

宏 观 研 究 税收收入同比涨幅收窄，非税收入同比降幅扩大。税收收入中，增值税和企业 所得税收入同比涨幅收窄，可能源于 11 月工业增加值、社零等经济数据降温 滞后反馈在税收数据上；个人所得税同比涨幅持平，持续高于整体税收同比增 速，主要源于股息红利所得税增加。其他税种中，消费税同比涨幅收窄；证券 交易印花税同比涨幅收窄，主要受高基数拖累；车辆购置税同比降幅继续扩大。 全年来看，公共财政收入负增长主要是非税收入的拖累，主要源于 2024 年一 次性安排中央单位上缴专项收益抬高基数。税收收入实现正增长，月度同比增 速呈现逐步由负转正的特征，下半年通胀改善对税收读数形成拉动。结构上， 三大主力税种（增值税、企业所得税和个人所得税）均由 2024 年的负增长转 为正增长；装备制造业、现代服务业等行业税收表现良好；权益市场热度较高， 带动对个人所得税、证券交易印花税收入大幅改善。 从预算完成比例来看，2025 年完成全年国家一般公共预算收入的 98.3%，低 于过去 5 年的平均水平。 公共财政支出：重在民生、科技和环保 2025 年 12 月，公共财政支出累计同比增速较 11 月回落 0.4 个百分点，12 月 支 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the market review from January 26 to January 30, 2026, most major equity market indices declined, with the Small and Medium - sized Board Index experiencing the largest drop of 3.78%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries rose, with the top five gainers being petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery; the top five decliners were national defense and military industry, electrical equipment, automobiles, computers, and comprehensive industries [1][12]. - In the public fund market, the CSRC solicited public opinions on the "Content and Format of Regular Reports of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" and the Asset Management Association of China officially established the performance comparison benchmark element library for public funds. In terms of fund performance, quantitative funds in equity funds had the largest decline, with an average drop of 1.10% and a positive return ratio of 24.74%; fixed - income + funds averaged a 0.20% decline with a positive return ratio of 35.23%; pure - bond funds averaged a 0.03% increase with a positive return ratio of 84.81%; pension target FOFs averaged an 0.81% increase with a positive return ratio of 94.97%. QDII funds averaged a 0.77% increase with a positive return ratio of 63.95%. Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and food and beverages last week, while reducing positions in pharmaceutical biology, electronics, and household appliances. As of January 30, 2026, the position of actively managed equity funds was 73.88%, a decrease of 1.07 pct from the previous period [1][2]. - In the ETF market, last week, the overall ETF market had a net capital outflow of 298.095 billion yuan, with the outflow scale narrowing slightly compared to the previous period. Stock - type ETFs had the largest net outflow of 317.982 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market reached 635.407 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 225.627 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 9.11%. Chemical, gold, non - ferrous metals, and convertible bond sectors were the main capital inflow varieties, while broad - based indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and CSI Small - cap 500 continued to see large - scale capital outflows, with the capital outflow of the CSI 300 index exceeding 240 billion yuan [3][50]. - Regarding fund issuance, last week, 45 new funds were issued, 5 more than the previous period; 47 new funds were established, 5 more than the previous period. New funds raised a total of 48.272 billion yuan, an increase of 3.818 billion yuan from the previous period [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Conditions - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, most major equity market indices declined, with the Small and Medium - sized Board Index dropping 3.78%, the largest decline. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries rose, and the top five gainers and decliners were as mentioned above. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index remained unchanged, while the ChinaBond Treasury Bond, Financial Bond, and Credit Bond Total Full - Price Indices fluctuated from a 0.03% decline to a 0.05% increase, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 2.61%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.60% [12]. 1.2 European, American and Asian - Pacific Market Conditions - Last week, most major indices in European, American, and Asian - Pacific markets declined. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 index rose 0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.17%. In the European market, the French CAC40 fell 0.20% and the German DAX fell 1.45%. In the Asian - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.38% and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.97% [20]. 1.3 Market Valuation Conditions - Last week, the valuation quantiles of most major market indices declined. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratios, the SSE 50 had the highest increase of 5.7 pct. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - book ratios, the SSE 50 also had the highest increase of 2.5 pct. Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratios in the Shenwan primary index were real estate, electronics, chemicals, commercial trade, and comprehensive industries. The lowest five were non - bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverages, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology [23]. 2. Active Public Fund Conditions Market Hotspots - The CSRC solicited public opinions on the "Content and Format of Regular Reports of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", integrating and revising relevant regulations to strengthen industry transparency and protect the legitimate rights and interests of fund share - holders. The Asset Management Association of China also solicited industry opinions on the "XBRL Template for Information Disclosure of Securities Investment Funds", which requires adding long - term performance data and other information [31][32]. - The Asset Management Association of China officially established the performance comparison benchmark element library for public funds, including 155 indices in total, with adjustments in the number of indices and operation rules [33]. Fund Performance - As mentioned above, different types of funds had different performance, and the top - performing funds in each category last week and this year were also listed [39][40][43]. Industry Positions of Actively Managed Equity Funds - Last week, actively managed equity funds increased their positions in non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and food and beverages, and reduced positions in pharmaceutical biology, electronics, and household appliances. As of January 30, 2026, the position of actively managed equity funds was 73.88%, a decrease of 1.07 pct from the previous period [45][46]. 3. ETF Fund Conditions - Last week, the overall ETF market had a net capital outflow of 298.095 billion yuan, with stock - type ETFs having the largest net outflow of 317.982 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market was 635.407 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 225.627 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 9.11%. Chemical, gold, non - ferrous metals, and convertible bond sectors were the main capital inflow varieties, while broad - based indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and CSI Small - cap 500 continued to see large - scale capital outflows [3][50]. 4. Fund Issuance Statistics - Last week, 45 new funds were issued, 5 more than the previous period, including 24 actively managed equity funds and 12 passive index funds. The 12 passive index funds were all stock - type, mainly tracking indices such as the SZSE GEM New Energy Vehicle Battery Index, CSI Industrial Non - ferrous Metals Theme Index, and CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index. 47 new funds were established, 5 more than the previous period, and new funds raised a total of 48.272 billion yuan, an increase of 3.818 billion yuan from the previous period [4][58][63].

宏观数据点评报告 产需两端双双走弱，压制制造业景气 ――2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据点评 | 究 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150514080001 | 2026 | 2 | 2 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] | [Table_Summary] | 证券分析师 | 事件：2026 | 年 | 月 | 日，统计局公布了 | 数据，1 | 月制造业采购经理指 | 1 | 31 | PMI | 宋亦威 | | 数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 | 产出指数分别为 | 49.3%、49.4%和 | PMI | 022-23861608 | 49.8%。 | | | | | | | | | SAC NO:S1150514080001 | songyw@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | 点评：（1）制造业景气水平回落至 49.3%，产需两端双双走弱。具体而言， ...

证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.02） 宏观及策略研究 地缘再起波澜，政策抢抓内需——2026 年 1 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 债市延续偏强震荡——利率债周报 行业研究 石药集团达成大额合作，关注创新药产业链——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2026/02/02） 晨会纪要（2026/02/02） 宏观及策略研究 地缘再起波澜，政策抢抓内需——2026 年 1 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、海外经济及政策环境 美国方面，整体经济预计在特朗普减税政策以及科技企业资本开支的推动下延续 2025 年底的强韧态势。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Neutral" rating, with specific company ratings of "Buy" for 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) and "Increase" for 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec) [12][60]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant collaborations in the innovative drug sector, including 石药集团 (Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical) partnering with AstraZeneca for long-acting peptide drug development and receiving clinical trial approval for SYS6055 injection in China [8][37]. - The report emphasizes the robust R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies showcased at the 2026 JPM Healthcare Conference, suggesting investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences [12][60]. - The report notes the recent release of the revised "Regulations on the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China," which aims to enhance drug innovation and regulatory processes [19][20]. Industry Data - As of January 29, 2026, the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 51.60 times, with a valuation premium of 259% relative to the CSI 300 index [10][52]. - The report provides current prices for vitamin raw materials, with Vitamin B1 at 237.5 RMB/kg and Vitamin D3 at 130 RMB/kg, remaining stable compared to January 28 [22]. - The Chinese herbal medicine market index shows a decline of 15% year-on-year, with specific herbs like 党参 (Codonopsis) and 当归 (Angelica) experiencing price drops of 41% and 29% respectively [26]. Company Announcements - 先声药业 (Xiansheng Pharmaceutical) signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Boehringer Ingelheim for the dual-specific antibody SIM0709, with potential milestone payments reaching up to 1.016 billion euros [36]. - 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) received acceptance for a drug listing application and clinical trial approval for multiple products, including a breakthrough therapy designation for HRS-5346 [39][40]. - 诺诚健华 (Innovent Biologics) anticipates a revenue of approximately 2.365 billion RMB for 2025, marking a 134% year-on-year increase [41].