Revenue Analysis - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, with corporate income tax revenue down 10.4%, indicating pressure on corporate profitability[3] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, likely due to governments activating state-owned resources[3] Expenditure Insights - Public fiscal expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with a spending progress of 15.2%, higher than the average of the past five years[4] - Expenditure in the livelihood and technology sectors increased by 5.4% and 8.7% respectively, surpassing 2024 levels[4] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline, particularly in agriculture, forestry, and water affairs, which dropped by 10.5% year-on-year[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7% year-on-year, significantly impacted by land transfer income[5] - Government fund expenditure showed a slight positive growth, with central government fund budget expenditure increasing by 74.2% year-on-year[5] - The share of central government in fund expenditure is rising, while local government share is decreasing[5] Risk Factors - Economic environment changes could significantly affect tax revenue bases[6] - Unexpected policy changes may alter the scale and pace of fiscal expenditures[6]

Group 1: Light Industry Manufacturing & Textile Apparel - The old-for-new policy is showing significant results, leading to improvements in the operational performance of companies in the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [3] - In January-February, the retail sales of furniture reached 26.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.70% [3] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles amounted to 262.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.30% [3] - From March 5 to March 21, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.43 percentage points, while the textile apparel sector outperformed by 2.90 percentage points [3] - The government has prioritized boosting consumption, with the issuance of a special action plan to stimulate consumption and an increase in the scale of long-term special bonds to 300 billion yuan [3] - The furniture retail sector is expected to see continued recovery, benefiting from the old-for-new policy and the overall expansion of domestic demand [3] Group 2: Mechanical Equipment Industry - The report highlights the clear production roadmap for humanoid robots, which is expected to drive demand for lead screws [5] - Lead screws are essential components in precision transmission, widely used in various applications including aerospace, robotics, and machine tools [5] - The domestic production of lead screws is improving, but there remains a gap compared to international standards [6] - The demand for lead screws is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the machine tool industry and the automotive sector, driven by the rapid development of domestic electric vehicles [6] - The humanoid robot market is projected to create substantial demand for lead screws, with an estimated market size of 14 billion yuan if annual production reaches 500,000 units [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Zhongchong Co., Ltd., has been focused on the pet food sector for 27 years and has established itself as a leading enterprise in the industry. It operates 22 modern production bases globally and has a national-level R&D center [3][22]. - The pet food industry is experiencing favorable growth trends, with significant market expansion projected in both the U.S. and China. The U.S. pet food market is expected to exceed $66 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 8.97% from 2024 to 2030. China's pet food market is projected to reach ¥158.5 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 16.82% from 2016 to 2024 [4][42]. - The company has implemented a dual-driven development model focusing on both domestic and international sales, enhancing its competitive edge through global factory layouts and partnerships with international retailers [5][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. was established in 1998 and has focused on the pet food industry for 27 years. It has developed several proprietary brands and has a significant global presence, exporting to over 80 countries [3][22]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of ¥3.748 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 15.4%. The projected revenue for 2024 is ¥4.381 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 16.9% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to be between ¥360 million and ¥400 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.4% to 71.55% [3][33]. Market Trends - The global pet food market is projected to exceed $140 billion, with the U.S. and Europe being key markets. The CAGR for the U.S. pet food market from 2024 to 2030 is expected to be over 8% [4][42]. - In China, the pet food market is rapidly growing, with domestic brands gaining popularity and market share [4][42]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has adopted a focus strategy to streamline its brand management and enhance profitability through high-margin products and effective channel pricing control. This has resulted in a 23.91% year-on-year increase in domestic revenue for the first half of 2024 [5][40]. - The company is enhancing its global footprint by expanding its product offerings and strengthening its brand presence in international markets [5][26]. Profitability Outlook - The company expects to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with a projected net profit of ¥360 million to ¥400 million, driven by increased sales and improved margins [3][33].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [2] - Specific companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC are rated as "Increase" [2] Core Viewpoints - In February, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in China reached 56.8 hours, a year-on-year increase of 100.7% [7] - The sales of various forklifts in February amounted to 101,451 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.1% [7] - The national construction machinery operating rate in February was 35.10%, with lifting equipment showing particularly strong performance [8] - The domestic market for excavators saw a cumulative sales volume of 17,000 units in January-February, a year-on-year increase of 51.40%, indicating a clear recovery trend [25] Summary by Sections Industry News - The operating hours of Komatsu excavators in China increased significantly, with a notable performance in other regions as well [7] - Forklift sales showed strong growth, particularly in domestic sales [7] - The construction machinery operating rate indicates a robust activity level in the sector [8] Industry Data - The steel price index has slightly decreased, indicating potential cost pressures in the industry [9] - International crude oil prices have shown a rebound, which may affect operational costs [10] Company Announcements - Haomai Technology reported a revenue increase of 22.99% for 2024, with strong performance across its business segments [13] - Huaguang New Materials plans to invest 300 million RMB in a production base in Thailand to enhance competitiveness [14] - Xingguang Agricultural Machinery intends to acquire a 51% stake in Suzhou Diesel Injection Technology Co., enhancing its operational capabilities [15] Market Review - From March 12 to March 18, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.68%, while the mechanical equipment sector declined by 0.62%, underperforming the broader market [17] - The valuation of the mechanical equipment sector is at a TTM P/E ratio of 30.36, with a significant premium over the CSI 300 [18] Weekly Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to drive demand for construction machinery through urban renewal and renovation projects [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the engineering machinery industry and an "Increase" rating for specific companies including Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery sector shows a significant recovery, with excavator sales in China increasing by 51.40% year-on-year in January-February 2025, reaching a total of 17,000 units sold [4]. - The government’s focus on stabilizing the real estate market is expected to drive demand for engineering machinery, particularly through urban renewal and the renovation of old residential areas [4]. - The machinery industry is experiencing a positive trend, with a notable increase in operating hours for excavators and forklift sales [3]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery Industry - In February, the operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China reached 56.8 hours, a year-on-year increase of 100.7% [3]. - Forklift sales in February totaled 101,500 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 49.1% [3]. - The national engineering machinery operating rate was reported at 35.10%, with lifting equipment showing particularly strong performance [3]. Company Announcements - Haomai Technology reported a 22.99% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024 [3]. - Huaguang New Materials plans to invest 300 million RMB in a production base in Thailand [3]. - Xingguang Agricultural Machinery intends to acquire a 51% stake in Suzhou Dazhong Fuel Injection Technology Co., Ltd [3]. Market Performance - From March 12 to March 18, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.68%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector fell by 0.62%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.30 percentage points [3]. - As of March 18, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 30.36 times, with a valuation premium of 146.27% compared to the CSI 300 [4]. Metal Industry - The report indicates a positive outlook for the steel industry, with increased downstream demand expected as the consumption peak season approaches [7]. - The copper market is experiencing tight supply, which is expected to support prices, while the aluminum market is influenced by domestic economic policies and international trade issues [6][7]. Company Focus: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. has been a leader in the pet food industry for 27 years, with a revenue of 3.189 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.56% [8]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, with sales covering over 80 countries and regions, and has seen an average annual growth of over 20% in overseas revenue from 2018 to the first half of 2024 [9]. - The pet food market is projected to grow significantly, with the U.S. market expected to exceed 66 billion USD in 2024 and reach 112 billion USD by 2030, indicating a CAGR of 8.97% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] - Specific companies recommended for "Increase" rating include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2] Core Views - The steel industry is entering a consumption peak season with increased downstream demand, indicating a potential improvement in the industry's fundamentals [1][16] - Copper supply remains tight, providing support for copper prices; demand may improve as the consumption season progresses [1][35] - The aluminum market is supported by domestic economic expectations and solar energy installation demand, but is affected by overseas tariffs and trade policies [1][42] - Gold prices are influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff policies, which continue to create market disturbances [1][47] - Lithium supply is expected to increase as production resumes, but the oversupply situation is likely to persist, keeping prices weak in the short term [1][48] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with inventory continuing to decline and prices recovering [16] - As of March 14, 2025, the total steel inventory was 18.29 million tons, down 1.53% from the previous week and down 25.72% year-on-year [24] - The average profit margins for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates have improved compared to the previous week [32] Copper Industry - Copper prices are supported by tight supply, with LME copper spot prices at $9,800 per ton as of March 14, 2025, reflecting a 0.98% increase from the previous week [39] - The copper smelting fee was reported at -$15.90 per ton, indicating a challenging environment for smelters [38] Aluminum Industry - As of March 14, 2025, LME aluminum prices were $2,700 per ton, up 0.74% from the previous week, while domestic prices were at 20,900 yuan per ton, up 0.29% [43] - The market is currently cautious, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach [40] Gold Industry - Gold prices have risen due to safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, with COMEX gold closing at $2,993.60 per ounce on March 14, 2025, a 2.60% increase [47] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff policies continue to support gold prices [47] Lithium and New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices were reported at 75,500 yuan per ton, down 0.26% from the previous week, indicating a weak price trend despite expected demand growth [49] - The supply situation remains challenging, with policies aimed at stimulating demand through subsidies [48] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths, such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide, increased by 1.02% to 445,000 yuan per ton as of March 14, 2025 [55] - Tungsten concentrate prices decreased by 0.71% to 140,000 yuan per ton [59]

晨会纪要（2025/3/19） 政策支撑开年经济——2025 年 1-2 月经济数据点评 金融工程研究 成交规模增长，短端与中长端走势分化——信用债周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/3/19） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 政策支撑开年经济——2025 年 1-2 月经济数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 2025 年 1-2 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增速较前值略有下滑，春节假期靠前且复工复产偏慢是主要 ...

2 月社融同比多增超 7000 亿元，为连续第 3 个月同比多增，政府债券 融资是主要支撑，2025 年国债和专项债发行规模均明显高于 2024 年同 期，其中既有政府债券供给额度提升的影响，也有供给节奏靠前的影响。 2 月社融的主要拖累项是人民币贷款（社融口径），同比少增超 3000 亿 元，基本抹平 1 月的同比多增量，一方面是源于 1 月信贷"开门红"对 2 月信贷的透支，另一方面也体现出实体融资需求仍有不足。此外，化 债资金提前还贷对此也有一定拖累。 ――2025 年 2 月金融数据点评 | | 周喜 | SAC NO： | S1150511010017 | 2025 | 年 | 3 月 | 17 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： | | | | | | | | | 私人部门融资需求待提振 2 月人民币贷款同比再度转为负增长，企业部门和居民部门表现均偏弱。 其中，企业中长贷在 2 月同比少增 7500 亿元，包含了 1 月信贷冲量对 2 月数据的透支，不过，从 1-2 月合计数据来看，企业中长贷同比 ...

晨会纪要（2025/3/18） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 政府融资支撑社融――2025 年 2 月金融数据点评 [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 政府融资支撑社融――2025 年 2 月金融数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 行业专题评述 提振消费新政出台，家居、服饰估值修复可期——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业 周报 金融工程研究 权益市场主要指数延续上涨，食品饮料表现突出——公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/3/18） 1、政府融资支撑社融同比多增 2 月社融同比多增超 7000 亿元，为连续第 ...

金 融 工 程 研 究 基金周报 权益市场主要指数延续上涨，食品饮料表现突出 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2025 年 3 月 17 日 ――公募基金周报 证券分析师 宋旸 022-28451131 songyang@bhzq.com 研究助理 张笑晨 SAC No: S1150123060017 zhangxc@bhzq.com 核心观点： ⚫ 上周市场回顾： 上周，市场主要指数估值多数上涨。市盈率方面，涨幅靠前的沪深 300、上证指数 的估值历史分位数分别环比上升 4.9pct.和 3.4pct.，达到 64.1%和 65.3%，创业板指 估值历史分位数 19.3%，处于历史低位。市净率方面，涨幅靠前的上证指数、沪深 300 估值历史分位数分别环比上升 4.4pct.和 3.1pct.，最终值为 71.8%和 74.3%，中证 1000 指数估值历史分位数处于历史较低水平。行业方面，上月申万一级指数市盈 率估值历史分位数最高的五个行业为房地产、汽车、电子、综合、建筑材料，其 中，房地产行业的市盈率估值分位数已达 90.3%，未来应关注其存在的修正风险； 而上月市盈率估值历史分 ...