渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.29） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数上涨，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 Optimus 3 发布在即，关注近期事件催化——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/01/29） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/29） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数上涨，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（1 月 21 日-1 月 27 日）A 股市场主要指数多数上涨，其中科创 50 涨幅最大，上涨了 4.92%；上证 50 跌幅最大，下跌了 0.59%。此外，上证综指上涨 0.64%，深证成指上涨 1.23%，创业板指上涨 1.97%，沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，中证 500 上涨 3.65%。 1 月 27 日，沪深两市两融余额为 27,144.35 亿元 ...

融资融券周报 主要指数多数上涨，两融余额继续上升 ――融资融券周报 | 分析师：王雪莹 | SAC NO：S1150525020001 2026 年 1 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师 | 核心观点： | | 王[Table_IndInvest] 雪莹 | | |  022-23839121 | 市场概况 | | wangxy4430@bhzq.com | | |  | 上周（1 月 21 日-1 月 27 日）A 股市场主要指数多数上涨，其中科创 50 | | | 涨幅最大，上涨了 4.92%；上证 50 跌幅最大，下跌了 0.59%。此外， | | | 上证综指上涨 0.64%，深证成指上涨 1.23%，创业板指上涨 1.97%，沪 | | | 深 300 下跌 0.28%，中证 500 上涨 3.65%。 | |  | 1 月 27 日，沪深两市两融余额为 27,144.35 亿元，较上周增加 140.53 | | | 亿元。其中融资余额为 26,969.49 亿元，较上周增加 139.05 亿元；融 | | | 券余额为 174.86 亿元，较上周增加 1.48 亿 ...

业 研 究 行 行业周报 Optimus 3 发布在即，关注近期事件催化 | | | | | ——机械设备行业周报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 宁前羽 | SAC NO： | S1150522070001 | 2026 | 年 1 月 | 28 | 日 | | 机械设备 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | 宁前羽 | |  行业要闻 | | | | | | | ningqy@bhzq.com | | （1）2025 年 12 | 月份塔机台天利用率 55.1%。 | | | | | | 022-23839174 | | | | | | | | | | | （2）2025 | 年全国规模以上工业企业利润增长 0.6%。 | | | | | | | | 公司公告  | | | | | | | 重点品种推荐 | | | | | | | | | 中联重科 | 增持 | （1）捷昌驱动发布 | 2025 年年度业绩预 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in 2025 is supported by new momentum and anti-involution policies, with a marginal increase in profit growth rate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year [2][3] - In December 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, reversing from negative to positive with an 18.4 percentage point recovery [3] - The industrial added value in December 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, driven by resilient exports and high-tech industries [3] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises in 2025 was 5.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, but the decline was less severe than in the previous months [3] - Among 41 industrial sectors, 16 sectors achieved positive profit growth in 2025, with notable growth in black metal smelting, non-ferrous metal mining, and high-tech manufacturing [4] - The end of three consecutive years of negative profit growth for industrial enterprises is attributed to support from new momentum sectors and the implementation of anti-involution policies [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds remaining stable and other types of bonds seeing growth [6][8] - Credit bond yields generally declined, with credit spreads for medium and short-term notes narrowing [8] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with a focus on adjusting strategies in response to market fluctuations and maintaining a cautious approach to ticket strategies [8] Fund Research - The number of equity funds increased to 7,583 by the end of Q4 2025, with a total scale of 94,572.12 billion, a decrease of 277.04 billion from the previous quarter [11] - Active equity funds saw a slight decrease in positions, with a notable decline in mixed and flexible allocation funds [11][12] - The allocation in the main board decreased significantly, while the allocation in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market increased [12] - The top five industries with increased holdings included non-ferrous metals and communications, while electronics and biomedicine saw a decrease [12] Industry Research - The geopolitical situation has led to strong performance in gold prices, with expectations for continued upward pressure due to uncertainties [14][15] - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to steady growth policies and demand in shipbuilding and construction [15] - The copper industry is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook, supported by supply constraints and demand from key sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [16] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from improved supply dynamics and demand from the new energy vehicle sector [16] - The rare earth industry is projected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export control upgrades and strategic importance [17]

宏观数据点评报告 新动能及反内卷支撑下，全年工企利润实现增长 ――2025 年 1-12 月工业企业效益数据点评 分析师： 严佩佩 SAC NO： S1150520110001 2026 年 1 月 27 日 [Table_Summary] [Table_Author] 证券分析师 事件：2026 年 1 月 27 日，统计局公布了 2025 年 12 月的规模以上工业企业 效益数据。 点评： SAC NO:S1150520110001 宋亦威 022-23861608 SAC NO:S1150514080001 songyw@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛芃[Table_IndInvest] 022-23839160 SAC NO：S1150124030005 jinpp@bhzq.com 2025 年 1-12 月规模以上工业企业利润同比增速边际回升 0.5 个百分点至 0.6%；其中，12 月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 5.3%，由负转正回升 18.4 个百分点。从量、价、利润率三因素来看，首先，受出口韧性以及高技术产 业和装备制造业的拉动，2025 年 12 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.2% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - Scale: The growth of passive index funds has slowed down. As of the end of Q4 2025, there were 7,583 equity funds (excluding ETF-linked funds and FOF funds) in the market, an increase of 294 from Q3 2025. The total scale of all equity funds was RMB 9,457.212 billion, a decrease of RMB 27.704 billion from the previous quarter. Passive index funds had the largest increase in both quantity and scale [3]. - Position: The positions of active equity funds decreased slightly. In terms of arithmetic average and stock market value weighted average position levels, the positions of active equity funds decreased by 1.13 pct. and 0.91 pct. respectively. Specifically, the funds with the largest position decreases were partial equity hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds [3]. - Sector distribution and allocation: There was a significant reduction in the allocation to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and an increase in the allocation to the Main Board. In Q4 2025, the total scale of all top ten heavy - held stocks decreased by RMB 67.305 billion compared with the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of the Main Board increased, while the scales of the other sectors decreased. Compared with the allocation ratio of the total A - share floating market value among sectors, active equity funds continued to under - allocate the Main Board and over - allocate the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market in Q4. Specifically, the under - allocation ratio of the Main Board was - 20.51%, and the over - allocation ratios of the Growth Enterprise Market and the Science and Technology Innovation Board were 13.50% and 7.00% respectively. The under - allocation ratio of the Main Board and the over - allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation Board both narrowed slightly quarter - on - quarter [3]. - Industry allocation: In Q4, the top five industries with an increase in the proportion of holding market value were non - ferrous metals, communication, household appliances, environmental protection, and non - bank finance; the top five industries with a decrease in the proportion of holding market value were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, media, banking, and machinery [3]. - Heavy - held individual stocks: The total market value of active equity funds' holdings of CATL was RMB 181.5 billion, ranking first. The top five stocks in terms of holding market value were CATL, Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic, Kweichow Moutai, and Zijin Mining. Compared with the previous quarter, Tencent Holdings dropped out of the top 5, and Zijin Mining entered the top 5 [3]. - Total shareholding: Stocks such as Foxconn Industrial Internet were reduced, while stocks such as Industrial Bank were increased. In Q4, Industrial Bank, Ping An of China, Meituan - W, Tuojing Technology, and Dongshan Precision had the highest increase in total shareholding. In contrast, Foxconn Industrial Internet, East Money, Alibaba - W, EVE Energy, and CATL had the highest reduction in total shareholding [3]. - Central Huijin ETF holdings: According to the holder data disclosed in the Q4 2025 public fund regular reports, as of the end of Q4 2025, the shareholdings of Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. in most broad - based and industry - specific ETFs remained stable. Only in some industry - themed ETFs were there small redemption actions observed: the special plan managed by Huijin Asset Management redeemed 16 million shares of the automobile ETF and 338 million shares of the electronics ETF under China Asset Management in Q4 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Equity Fund Scale, Position, and Sector Distribution - **1.1 Passive index fund quantity and scale growth slow down, active equity fund positions decrease slightly**: As of the end of Q4 2025, there were 7,583 equity funds (excluding ETF - linked funds and FOF funds) in the market, an increase of 294 from Q3 2025. The total scale of all equity funds was RMB 9,457.212 billion, a decrease of RMB 27.704 billion from the previous quarter. Passive index funds had the largest increase in both quantity and scale. In Q4 2025, the positions of active equity funds decreased slightly. The arithmetic average and stock market value weighted average position levels decreased by 1.13 pct. and 0.91 pct. respectively. The funds with the largest position decreases were partial equity hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds [10][12]. - **1.2 Significant reduction in the allocation to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and an increase in the allocation to the Main Board**: In Q4 2025, the total scale of all top ten heavy - held stocks decreased by RMB 67.305 billion compared with the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of the Main Board increased, while the scales of the other sectors decreased. The allocation ratio of the Main Board increased by 2.14 pct. quarter - on - quarter, and the allocation ratio of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange decreased by 1.54 pct. quarter - on - quarter. Compared with the allocation ratio of the total A - share floating market value among sectors, active equity funds continued to under - allocate the Main Board and over - allocate the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market in Q4. The under - allocation ratio of the Main Board was - 20.51%, and the over - allocation ratios of the Growth Enterprise Market and the Science and Technology Innovation Board were 13.50% and 7.00% respectively. The under - allocation ratio of the Main Board and the over - allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation Board both narrowed slightly quarter - on - quarter [15][16]. 2. Industry Allocation - **2.1 Heavy - held A - share industry distribution**: In Q4 2025, the top ten heavy - held industries of active equity funds were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, communication, computer, machinery, automobile, non - bank finance, pharmaceutical biology, and household appliances. Compared with Q3 2025, the rankings of non - ferrous metals and other industries increased significantly, while the ranking of pharmaceutical biology decreased significantly. In Q4, the top five industries with an increase in the proportion of holding market value were non - ferrous metals, communication, household appliances, environmental protection, and non - bank finance; the top five industries with a decrease in the proportion of holding market value were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, media, banking, and machinery [22][24]. - **2.2 Heavy - held A - share active allocation**: Compared with the weights of CSI 300 constituent stocks, in Q4, active equity funds' heavy - held A - shares maintained a relatively high over - allocation ratio in industries such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment. The over - allocation ratio of electronics was 7.31%, that of non - ferrous metals was 4.10%, and that of power equipment was 2.05%. Industries such as banking, non - bank finance, and food and beverage were still under - allocated. The under - allocation ratio of banking was - 9.62%, that of non - bank finance was - 6.44%, and that of food and beverage was - 4.12%. Compared with Q3, the over - allocation ratio of non - ferrous metals increased significantly, while the over - allocation ratio of electronics decreased significantly [28]. 3. Heavy - Held Stock Situation - **3.1 Tencent Holdings drops out of the top 5, Zijin Mining enters the top 5**: Among the top 20 heavy - held stocks by market value, the total market value of active equity funds' holdings of CATL was RMB 181.5 billion, ranking first. The top five stocks in terms of holding market value were CATL, Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic, Kweichow Moutai, and Zijin Mining. Compared with the previous quarter, Tencent Holdings dropped out of the top 5, and Zijin Mining entered the top 5. In terms of the number of funds with positions, the top five stocks with the most positions in Q4 were CATL, Zhongji Innolight, Zijin Mining, New Fiber Optic, and Tencent Holdings. Among them, 2,043 active equity funds held positions in CATL. Compared with the previous quarter, Zhongji Innolight's ranking rose by 2 places, and Tencent Holdings' ranking dropped by 2 places [31][33]. - **3.2 Stocks such as Foxconn Industrial Internet are reduced, while Industrial Bank is increased**: From the perspective of the change in the total amount of heavy - held stocks held by active equity funds, in Q4, Industrial Bank, Ping An of China, Meituan - W, Tuojing Technology, and Dongshan Precision had the highest increase in total shareholding. In contrast, Foxconn Industrial Internet, East Money, Alibaba - W, EVE Energy, and CATL had the highest reduction in total shareholding [35]. 4. Central Huijin ETF Holdings As of the end of Q4 2025, the shareholdings of Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. in most broad - based and industry - specific ETFs remained stable. Only in some industry - themed ETFs were there small redemption actions observed: the special plan managed by Huijin Asset Management redeemed 16 million shares of the automobile ETF and 338 million shares of the electronics ETF under China Asset Management in Q4 [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [6][6][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the independence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies are expected to boost gold prices in the short term [6][6]. - The copper market is facing supply constraints due to incidents at major mines, which is likely to support copper prices despite high prices potentially suppressing actual consumption [36][36]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price support due to downstream inventory demand, while the lithium market is anticipated to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply expectations [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Steel - The steel industry is expected to improve profitability as growth policies are implemented, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3][3]. - Current steel prices are showing seasonal trends, with expectations of price fluctuations following raw material prices [19][19]. - As of January 23, 2026, the total steel inventory has increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week, indicating a potential accumulation ahead of the Spring Festival [26][26]. Copper - The copper market is experiencing a tightening supply due to strikes affecting production at key mines, which may provide price support [36][36]. - The copper smelting processing fees remain negative, indicating pressure on the supply side, while demand is expected to rise in sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [36][36]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is characterized by stable supply and high operating rates at alumina plants, with expectations of price support from downstream inventory needs [46][46]. - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of alumina is reported at 2,657.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [50][50]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and economic data are influencing gold prices, with a notable increase in prices observed recently [54][54]. - As of January 23, 2026, gold prices have risen by 8.30% on COMEX and 8.07% on SHFE compared to the previous week [54][54]. Lithium and Cobalt - The lithium market is expected to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply conditions, with battery-grade lithium prices increasing by 12.46% recently [58][58]. - Cobalt supply is constrained due to limited export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand is driven by the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [6][6].

固定收益周报 成交金额继续增长，收益率整体保持下行 ――信用债周报 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2026 年 1 月 27 日 核心观点： 本期（1 月 19 日至 1 月 25 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上 行，整体变化幅度为-2 BP 至 6 BP。本期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债 发行金额较上期持平，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券发行金额增加，定向 工具发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，各品种净融资额增加，企业 债、定向工具净融资额为负，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券净融资额为正。 二级市场方面，本期信用债成交金额继续环比增长，中期票据、定向工具成 交金额减少，其余品种成交金额增加。收益率方面，本期信用债收益率多数 下行。信用利差方面，本期中短期票据信用利差整体收窄；企业债 7 年期信 用利差收窄，其余期限多数走阔；城投债 3 年期信用利差收窄，长期限多数 走阔。分位数来看，多数品种利差均处于历史低位，7 年期品种分位数相对 较高。绝对收益角度来看，供给不足和相对旺盛的配置需求将推动信用债延 续修复行情，尽管多空因素影响下震荡调整难以避免，但总体而言，信用债 ...

证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.27） 基金研究 《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》正式发布——公募基金周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/27） 晨会纪要（2026/01/27） 基金研究 《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》正式发布——公募基金周报 行业研究 头部纸企白卡纸提价，去年国内消费市场稳增长——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 上周统计区间为 2026 年 1 月 19 日至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，权益市场主要指数涨跌不一，其中，涨幅最大的 是中证 500，上涨 4.34%。31 个申万一级行业中 24 个行业上涨，涨幅前五的行业是建筑材料、石油石化、 钢铁、化工和有色金属；跌幅前五的 ...

行 行业周报 业 头部纸企白卡纸提价，去年国内消费市场稳增长 研 ——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | 究 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | SAC | NO： | S1150521120002 | 2026 年 | 01 | 月 | 26 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 轻工制造 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | 纺织服饰 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 行业要闻  | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | （1）200 | | 元/吨，多家白卡纸巨头将在春节后涨价。 | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | | | | | | | | | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com 022-23839135 | | （2）泡泡玛特本周连续回购股份，累计金额近 | | 3.5 | 亿港元。 | | | | | | | 研子究行助业理评级 | | 重要公司公告  | | | | | | | | | | 家居用品 | 中性 ...