Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance, with inflation showing signs of slowing down, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again in December. The Fed's cautious stance indicates only one rate cut is expected in 2026, which is less than market predictions [2][3] - In Europe, a weak economic recovery is coupled with the European Central Bank's increased tolerance for inflation, leading to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [3] - Domestic consumption and investment are slowing due to high bases and weak expectations, while external demand remains strong, particularly in export-oriented sectors. Structural support for service consumption is anticipated as policies support recovery [3][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for stable economic growth and quality improvement, with a focus on the integrated effects of monetary and fiscal policies. A reserve requirement ratio cut is expected to be implemented first, with interest rate cuts being more structural [3][3] Fixed Income Research - Panda bonds, which are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities in China, have seen their market scale exceed 1.14 trillion RMB, reflecting the ongoing internationalization of the RMB and the opening of China's bond market [6][6] - The panda bond market has evolved through three stages: initial exploration (2005-2013), development with increased participation (2014-2022), and rapid expansion and product innovation (2023-present) [6][6] - Panda bonds offer lower financing costs compared to offshore dollar bonds and provide flexibility in fund usage, while also serving as a risk diversification tool for investors [7][7] - As of December 5, 2025, there are 263 panda bonds with a market size of 414.886 billion RMB, indicating a significant increase in issuance driven by policy optimization [7][7] Industry Research - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement has been initiated, with significant developments including the approval of a domestic anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody and the introduction of a weight-loss version of semaglutide for cardiovascular indications [11][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.66% during the week of December 19-25, 2025, with the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increasing by 1.43% [11][11] - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies whose products enter medical insurance and the investment opportunities arising from structural optimization in innovative drug payments, as well as the progress in the medical device sector following the initiation of high-value consumables procurement [12][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the last few trading days of the year, it is expected that there will be limited changes in the bond market. Interest rates may continue a mostly sideways trend. Attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of medium - and long - term varieties, while being vigilant about the high volatility of ultra - long - term varieties and the disturbance of rising cross - year funding prices on 1 - 2Y term varieties. Moderately seize the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds with a term of 7Y and below, as well as the term spread between 5Y - 3Y treasury bonds [2][17]. - In the long run, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, and price signals are the key [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funding Prices: Cross - year Funding Prices Rise - From December 19th to December 25th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 6.59 billion yuan. On the 25th, 40 billion yuan of MLF was carried out, with an over - renewal of 10 billion yuan [2][8]. - During the statistical period, the 14 - day funding price rose significantly, with R014 rising by 24bp. Starting from the 25th, as 7 - day funds began to cross the year, DR007 rose 10bp on that day but remained in the range of 1.4 - 1.5%. Overnight funding prices continued to decline, with DR001 dropping to a new low of 1.26% for the year. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined slightly, with the 1Y certificate of deposit yield falling to around 1.64%, in line with the year - end seasonal characteristic of declining certificate of deposit yields [8]. 3.2 Primary Market: Issuance Nears the End - From December 19th to December 25th, only 11 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, indicating that interest - rate bond issuance is coming to an end [2][9]. 3.3 Secondary Market: The Yield Curve Continues to Steepen - From December 19th to December 25th, the yields of most treasury bonds declined, and the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds continued to weaken. In terms of term structure, the yields of medium - and short - term treasury bonds declined more. The market traded on the expectation that the central bank would increase its support for the funding market and that the bond - buying scale in December would increase. The term spread between 10Y and 1Y treasury bonds widened to 53bp, reaching a new high since January 7, 2025. Long - end interest rates are still in a state of game, with large intraday fluctuations and limited response to Beijing's real - estate relaxation policies. In addition, secondary - market trading volume also decreased seasonally at the year - end [2][10]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentals: Currently, it is hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Factors such as policy expectations, asset price - to - value ratios, and institutional behavior may still be dominant. However, in the longer term, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, with price signals being the key [15]. - Policy: The central bank released the communiqué of the fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting. Three adjustments in the statements are worthy of attention. First, the statement of "preventing idle funds" was deleted. Second, "promoting a decline in the overall social financing cost" was adjusted to "promoting the overall social financing cost to operate at a low level." Combining these two points, it can be understood that the current overall social financing cost is already at a low level. Further interest - rate cuts may face many constraints and may not necessarily achieve good results, but there are still various means to inject funds, and liquidity injection tools of various terms will be used flexibly. Third, "optimizing supply" was added after the statement of "expanding domestic demand." From the perspective of financial institutions, this may indicate that goals such as the total amount of credit issuance are further downplayed, and more emphasis is placed on the quality of issuance [15]. - Funding: As the year - end approaches, funding prices may rise slightly, but with the central bank's open - market operation support, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds is limited [15].

宏 观 研 究 | | | 宏观经济分析报告 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 2026 年仅有一次降息，少于期货市场预测；中期来看，随着地区联储主席 轮换以及新美联储主席提名，整体 FOMC 票委有偏鸽趋向，但从近期几位联 储主席候选人的表态来看，坚守联储"独立性"底线仍是共识。欧洲方 面，经济基本面弱复苏，叠加欧央行对通胀容忍度的放宽和对未来政策路 径的鹰派表述，市场开始交易 2026 年欧央行加息的情形。 国内经济 时至年末，国内消费和投资在高基数、政策退坡、预期偏弱的影响下延续 放缓态势，外需则在非美国家支撑下保持出色表现，由此带动部分出口导 向型行业的生产继续强势。展望来看，高频指标显示 12 月出口存在放缓可 能，但整体幅度有限；内需消费，特别是部分商品，仍会受到高基数制 约，但随着政策支持以及假期陆续开启，服务消费将会提供结构性支撑； 投资端有望在制造业和基建投资先后发力下逐步企稳，而房地产投资在一 定程度受库存去化影响仍在寻底过程中。价格方面，"反内卷"等政策因素 作用下已初现企稳态势 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Neutral" rating, and the specific company, 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), is rated as "Buy" [53] Core Insights - The sixth batch of centralized procurement for high-value medical consumables has been officially launched, covering drug-coated balloon products and urological intervention consumables [7][8] - The first domestically produced anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody, 达伯欣® (Dabaoxin), has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for marketing [8] - A weight-loss version of 司美格鲁肽 (Semaglutide) has gained approval for cardiovascular indications in China [9] - The SW pharmaceutical industry index has shown a 1.43% increase, with most sub-sectors experiencing growth [41] - The industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is reported at 50.75 times, with a valuation premium of 259% relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [47] Industry News - The National Medical Insurance Administration has released a new drug catalog, which is expected to enhance the market potential for related pharmaceutical companies [52] - The recent approval of various drugs and clinical trials indicates a robust pipeline for innovative treatments in the industry [25][27][29][30][31][32][35] Company Announcements - Several companies, including 丽珠集团 (Lizhu Group) and 艾力斯 (Eli Lilly), have received approvals for new drug applications and clinical trials, indicating ongoing innovation and development in the sector [25][26][27][29][30] - 恒瑞医药 has been included in the list of breakthrough therapy products, highlighting its significant advancements in drug development [27] Market Review - The overall market has shown positive trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.66% during the week [41] - The pharmaceutical sector's performance reflects a general upward trend, with specific sub-sectors like chemical pharmaceuticals and medical services leading the gains [41] Weekly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies that have products entering the medical insurance catalog, as this could lead to increased market volume and investment opportunities [52]

Macro and Strategy Research - The report indicates that with the easing of uncertainties in US-China trade, external demand is expected to remain stable, while effective domestic demand still needs to be boosted [2] - The central economic work conference has set a relatively restrained overall policy for 2026, but structural policy optimization is expected to bring some highlights [2] - The report forecasts that the scale of equity public funds will continue to expand, and financing scale is expected to maintain steady growth, supporting positive liquidity expectations in the investment sector [3] - The market is anticipated to return to a slowly rising central trend after recent fluctuations, with a focus on long-term investments and thematic investments, particularly in technology sectors [3] Industry Research - The report highlights that companies like Zhipu and MiniMax are progressing towards IPOs in Hong Kong, which may provide key benchmarks for industry valuation and financing systems [5] - ByteDance is projected to invest approximately 160 billion yuan in AI infrastructure in 2026, indicating significant capital inflow into the AI sector [5] - Google's parent company has acquired Intersect for $4.75 billion, enhancing its data center power layout, which reflects ongoing investment trends in the tech industry [6] - The report notes that the computer industry has seen a 1.27% increase in the Shenwan Computer Index from December 18 to December 24, with most sub-sectors experiencing growth [6] - The report emphasizes that the successful IPOs of Zhipu and MiniMax could lead to a virtuous cycle of R&D investment and commercialization in the AI sector [6] - Domestic enterprises are accelerating their layout in consumer applications, which is expected to help form a comprehensive AI business ecosystem [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all rose last week, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 4.34%, while the Shanghai 50 Index had the smallest rise of 2.46% [2] - As of December 23, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 25,236.76 billion yuan, an increase of 265.98 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average daily number of investors participating in margin trading was 402,310, a decrease of 0.92% from the previous week [2] Industry Insights - The electronic, communication, and power equipment sectors saw significant net buying in margin trading, while the food and beverage, computer, and basic chemical sectors experienced less net buying [3] - The machinery equipment sector's performance was strong, with the industry index rising 3.26%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.52 percentage points [7] - In November, the import and export trade volume of engineering machinery in China reached 54 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [5] Company Announcements - Nepean Mining announced a delay in some fundraising projects [5] - Yongda Co. announced it received a bid notification [6] - Zhongchuang Zhiling announced an external investment [6] Future Outlook - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue to grow due to favorable domestic construction activity and the implementation of major projects [7] - The production of industrial robots in November was approximately 70,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.60%, with expectations for the total production in 2025 to exceed 700,000 units [8] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the machinery equipment industry and recommends focusing on companies like Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [8]

晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.24） 固定收益研究 成交规模增长，信用利差走阔——信用债周报 公司研究 享西部资源红利，乘铜市景气东风——西部矿业（601168）深度报告 行业研究 美国通胀缓和，金价获得支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 中央和地方持续积极优化房地产政策，托举政策持续发力，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，对推动房地 产止跌回稳发挥了积极的作用。尽管当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，但随着稳楼市各项政策显 效，房地产市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。基于城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效 为主的阶段这一论断，下阶段的目标是要积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用 力推动房地产市场高质量发展，后续政策出台的节奏和力度值得期待。地产债方面，销售复苏进程将对债 券估值 ...

Group 1: Fund Research - The market review for the week of December 15 to December 19, 2025, indicates that most major equity indices declined, with the largest drop being 2.99% for the Sci-Tech 50 index. Among 31 first-level industries, 19 saw an increase, with the top five performing sectors being commercial trade, non-bank financials, beauty care, leisure services, and chemicals [2] - The public fund market saw a private fund management scale reaching 22.09 trillion yuan, and the China Securities Index Co., Ltd. released the China ASEAN Digital Economy Theme Index [2] - Bond funds performed well, with fixed income plus funds showing the largest average increase of 0.10%, and 76.57% of them achieving positive returns. In contrast, equity funds averaged a decline of 0.57%, with only 39.09% showing positive returns [3] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 871.36 billion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for the largest inflow of 552.23 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume reached 4,596.24 billion yuan [3][4] Group 2: Industry Research - The report highlights the emergence of the "reward economy," which refers to consumers purchasing non-essential goods or services to gain immediate pleasure and psychological relief in response to work and life pressures. This new consumption model is rapidly developing among younger demographics and is expected to drive domestic demand and consumption [5][7] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed by 2.46 percentage points during the same period [7] - The report suggests continued attention to sectors benefiting from the "reward economy," such as trendy toys, pet consumption, and domestic fashion brands, as they are expected to thrive in the evolving consumer landscape [5][7]

Company Research - The report focuses on Gongchuang Turf (605099), a leading global artificial turf company, which has shown steady growth with a revenue increase of 9.52% and a net profit growth of 30.89% in the first three quarters of the year [10] - The company has a strong presence in the leisure turf segment, with over 70% of its revenue coming from this category, and it exports to more than 140 countries, with over 95% of its revenue generated from overseas [10] - The global artificial turf market is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 9.28% in industry size and 11.21% in sales area from 2015 to 2023, reaching €4.141 billion by 2027, representing a 28.64% increase from 2023 [11] - Gongchuang Turf has established a robust R&D system, with R&D expenses of 71.82 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 10.58% increase year-on-year, significantly higher than its peers [11] - The company has a planned production capacity of 17.6 million square meters after the completion of its overseas production bases, with a high capacity utilization rate maintained above 95% from 2020 to 2024 [11] Industry Research - The report highlights the recent National Medical Security Work Conference, which outlines eight key tasks for 2026, focusing on supporting the development of commercial health insurance and promoting innovation in the pharmaceutical industry [13][16] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a decline of 1.23% in the week of December 12-18, 2025, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [13] - The report suggests that with the implementation of the new drug catalog and commercial insurance for innovative drugs, there are investment opportunities in pharmaceutical companies whose products enter the medical insurance system [16] - The report also notes that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown weak reactions to recent catalysts, leading to a downgrade of the industry rating from "positive" to "neutral" [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has been downgraded from "Positive" to "Neutral" [2][52] - The rating for 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) is maintained at "Buy" [2][52] Core Insights - The National Medical Security Work Conference was held to summarize the work during the 14th Five-Year Plan and deploy key tasks for 2026, focusing on high-quality development of medical insurance [9][10] - The new drug directory and commercial health insurance innovation drug directory are expected to be implemented, suggesting potential growth for pharmaceutical companies whose products enter the medical insurance system [52] - The report highlights the importance of optimizing the payment structure for pharmaceutical companies and the investment opportunities arising from this [52] - Recent advancements in AI healthcare applications are noted, with a recommendation to focus on related medical services and pharmaceutical commercial sectors [52] Industry News - The National Medical Security Bureau has issued a three-year action plan to improve the quality and efficiency of medical insurance fund settlement [11][12] - The second-generation cardiac muscle troponin inhibitor, 星舒平® (Afikaytai), has been approved in China for treating obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy [13] - The AI health application "蚂蚁阿福" (Ant Health) has entered the first tier of AI applications, reflecting strong demand for health management [13] Industry Data - The price of vitamin raw materials as of December 18, 2025, remains stable, with Vitamin B1 at 238 RMB/kg and Vitamin D3 at 160 RMB/kg [14] - The Chinese herbal medicine market price index has decreased by 16% year-on-year, with specific herbs like 连翘 (Forsythia) and 党参 (Codonopsis) showing significant price drops [18] Company Announcements - 和铂医药-B (HaploMed) has signed a global strategic cooperation and licensing agreement with Bristol-Myers Squibb, potentially receiving up to 1.125 billion USD in milestone payments [30] - 翰森制药 (Hansoh Pharmaceutical) has entered a licensing agreement with Glenmark for the drug 阿美替尼 (Amivantamab) for non-small cell lung cancer [31] - 诺诚健华 (Innovent Biologics) has received approval for the III phase clinical trial of 奥布替尼 (Orelabrutinib) for systemic lupus erythematosus [33] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.71%, with the SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index declining by 1.23% [45] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has a TTM P/E ratio of 50.11, with a valuation premium of 259% compared to the CSI 300 [47]