情绪扰动叠加资金博弈，部分品种价格波动或加大 | 研 | | | | | | | | ——金属行业周报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | | 张珂 | | S1150523120001 | | SAC NO： | 2025 年 12 月 30 | | 日 | | | | | | 钢铁 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | 有色金属 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | |  | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | | | | | | | 张珂 | | | | 钢铁：随着淡季的逐步深入，钢材需求改善空间不大，后续随着需求季节性走 | | | | | | | | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研究助理 | | | | | | | | | | | 铜：目前在高铜价的影 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors during the period from December 22 to December 28, 2025, showed a differentiated trend, with most high - grade rates declining and most medium - and low - grade rates rising, with an overall change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP [1][15][63]. - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous period. Corporate bonds remained at zero issuance, the issuance amounts of corporate bonds and private placement notes decreased, while the issuance amounts of medium - term notes and commercial paper increased. The net financing of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous period [1][13][63]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes increased, while the trading volume of commercial paper decreased [1][19][63]. - The yields of most credit bonds declined during this period. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds were differentiated, with most 1 - year and 7 - year spreads widening and most 3 - year and 5 - year spreads narrowing [1][22][63]. - From the perspective of absolute return, the shortage of supply and relatively strong allocation demand will promote the continued recovery of credit bonds. In the long run, the yields are still in a downward channel, and the idea of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. From the perspective of relative return, although the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient, the probability of unilateral callback in the short term is also small. Therefore, it is still possible to achieve the coupon strategy through credit downgrade and extending the duration [1][63]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Situation 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, a total of 211 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 254.432 billion yuan, a 2.51% decrease compared with the previous period. The net financing of credit bonds was 42.433 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.343 billion yuan compared with the previous period [13]. - Corporate bonds had zero issuance, with a net financing of - 6.252 billion yuan, an increase of 0.498 billion yuan compared with the previous period. Corporate bonds issued 74 bonds, with an issuance amount of 49.363 billion yuan, a 46.55% decrease compared with the previous period, and a net financing of 15.757 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.511 billion yuan compared with the previous period. Medium - term notes issued 66 bonds, with an issuance amount of 109.469 billion yuan, a 30.15% increase compared with the previous period, and a net financing of 78.532 billion yuan, an increase of 37.169 billion yuan compared with the previous period. Commercial paper issued 60 bonds, with an issuance amount of 90.117 billion yuan, a 23.36% increase compared with the previous period, and a net financing of - 44.152 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.187 billion yuan compared with the previous period. Private placement notes issued 11 bonds, with an issuance amount of 5.483 billion yuan, a 52.24% decrease compared with the previous period, and a net financing of - 1.452 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.312 billion yuan compared with the previous period [13]. 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors were differentiated, with most high - grade rates declining and most medium - and low - grade rates rising, with an overall change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP. By tenor, the 1 - year variety had an interest rate change range of - 2 BP to 0 BP, the 3 - year variety had an interest rate change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP, the 5 - year variety had an interest rate change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP, and the 7 - year variety had an interest rate change range of - 2 BP to 1 BP. By grade, the key AAA - grade and AAA - grade varieties had an interest rate change range of - 3 BP to - 1 BP, the AA + - grade variety had an interest rate change range of - 1 BP to 2 BP, the AA - grade variety had an interest rate change range of 0 BP to 2 BP, and the AA - - grade variety had an interest rate change range of 0 BP to 1 BP [15]. 2. Secondary Market Situation 2.1 Market Trading Volume - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.030617 trillion yuan, a 7.72% increase compared with the previous period. Corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes traded 28.754 billion yuan, 446.075 billion yuan, 347.636 billion yuan, 145.597 billion yuan, and 62.555 billion yuan respectively [19]. 2.2 Credit Spreads - In medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. The 1 - year credit spreads widened; among the 3 - year notes, the credit spreads of AA - grade and AA - - grade widened, while the spreads of AAA - grade and AA + - grade narrowed; the 5 - year credit spreads narrowed; among the 7 - year notes, the credit spread of AAA - grade narrowed, while the spread of AA + - grade widened [22]. - In corporate bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. The 1 - year AAA - grade credit spread narrowed, while the spreads of other varieties widened; among the 3 - year notes, the credit spreads of AAA - grade and AA + - grade narrowed, while the spreads of AA - grade and AA - - grade widened; the 5 - year credit spreads narrowed; among the 7 - year notes, the credit spread of AAA - grade narrowed, while the spreads of other varieties widened [27]. - In urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. The 1 - year credit spreads widened; the 3 - year credit spreads narrowed; among the 5 - year notes, the credit spreads of AAA - grade and AA + - grade narrowed, while the spreads of AA - grade and AA - - grade widened; among the 7 - year notes, the credit spread of AAA - grade narrowed, while the spreads of other varieties widened [37]. 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 1.20 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread narrowed by 3.20 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 3.22 BP. The 3Y - 1Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (21.6%), the 5Y - 3Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (34.5%), and the 7Y - 3Y term spread was at a historical median (41.9%). In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year medium - and short - term notes widened by 3.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 3.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 2.00 BP [47]. - For AA + corporate bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 3.69 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread widened by 3.12 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 8.55 BP. The 3Y - 1Y term spread was at a historical low (12.2%), the 5Y - 3Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (36.3%), and the 7Y - 3Y term spread was at a historical median (42.9%). In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year corporate bonds widened by 6.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 6.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged from the previous period [52]. - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.72 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread narrowed by 1.67 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 2.25 BP. The 3Y - 1Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (20.3%), the 5Y - 3Y term spread was at a low - to - middle historical percentile (31.2%), and the 7Y - 3Y term spread was at a historical median (46.8%). In terms of rating spreads, the (AA - )-(AAA) spread of 3 - year urban investment bonds narrowed by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged from the previous period [54]. 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, a total of 2 companies had their ratings (including outlooks) adjusted, both of which were upgrades. They were Wenzhou Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Energy Group Co., Ltd. [60]. 3.2 Default and Extension Bond Statistics - There were no credit bond defaults during the period from December 22 to December 28, 2025. One issuer, Bohai Leasing Co., Ltd., had its credit bonds extended, namely "18 Bojin 03" and "18 Bozu 05", with a total bond balance of 823 million yuan at the time of extension [62]. 4. Investment Viewpoints - The overall idea is to continue to be optimistic about the credit bond market in the long term, but pay attention to short - term fluctuations. In terms of configuration, the coupon strategy can be moderately optimistic, and the trading strategy can be kept optimistic. When selecting bonds, focus on the trend of interest - rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds. At the same time, it is possible to achieve the coupon strategy through credit downgrade and extending the duration according to one's own capital characteristics, but pay attention to the rhythm [1][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the main characteristics of bond ETF premiums and discounts and their impact on component bonds. It analyzes the influence mechanism of bond ETF premiums and discounts on component bonds, the characteristics and influencing factors of premiums and discounts, the volume - price changes of component bonds during premium and discount periods, and provides corresponding conclusions and insights [8][61]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond ETF Premium and Discount Impact Mechanism on Component Bonds - The premium - discount rate is used to measure the deviation between the bond ETF price and the net value. In the discount stage, investors redeem shares in the primary market and sell ETFs in the secondary market, leading to a decline in the ETF price and net value. Arbitrage behavior can repair the discount to some extent. In the premium stage, investors subscribe for shares in the primary market and buy ETFs in the secondary market, causing the ETF price and net value to rise, and arbitrage can repair the premium. Different redemption mechanisms (physical redemption and cash redemption) have different impacts on ETFs [9][10][12]. 3.2 Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Bond ETF Premiums and Discounts 3.2.1 When Do Premiums and Discounts Occur? - Local - government bond ETFs had continuous deep discounts from 2022 - 2023, mainly due to low trading activity. Since 2024, they have maintained a slight premium. Credit - type ETFs had discounts from September 2022 to April 2023 and in the second half of 2025, and slight premiums in 2024 and the second quarter of 2025. The physical redemption mode often has a deeper discount than the cash redemption mode [17][20][21]. 3.2.2 How Do Turnover, Share, and Net Value Change During Premium and Discount Stages? - Turnover: In the deep - discount stage, turnover is prone to peak, but the correlation has weakened since 2025 [28][29][40]. - Share: There is synchronicity between short - term deep discounts and share redemptions [33][34][36]. - Net Value: In the deep - discount stage, the ETF net value often recovers before the price [38]. - Summary: In the deep - discount stage, the underlying asset liquidity of the ETF is extremely restricted. Turnover is prone to peak, but it does not necessarily correspond to continuous large - scale redemptions. Since 2025, the correlation between the premium - discount rate and turnover, share, and net - value changes has weakened [40]. 3.3 Volume - Price Change Characteristics of ETF Component Bonds During Premium and Discount Stages 3.3.1 Volume: Trading Activity - The trading activity is measured by the ratio of the number of bonds with transactions to the number of bonds without transactions. The trading activity of component bonds in different indexes responds differently to ETF premiums and discounts. The urban investment index shows an anti - intuitive phenomenon, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen market - making indexes conform to the theoretical mechanism [43][44][46]. 3.3.2 Price: Credit Spread - The credit spread is measured by the difference between the bond's yield to maturity and the yield of the same - term China Development Bank bond. In the deep - discount stage of the urban investment index, the credit spread of non - component bonds widens more significantly. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen market - making indexes, the credit spread of component bonds widens significantly during premium and discount periods, indicating higher price - discovery efficiency [53][54][56]. 3.4 Main Conclusions and Insights - In the deep - discount stage, the underlying asset liquidity is restricted, and large - scale redemptions often occur during short - term discounts in the continuous premium stage. Different indexes have different response patterns to ETF premiums and discounts. When selecting bonds in the discount stage, it is necessary to judge the source of the discount. The lack of liquidity in the credit - bond market is a major constraint, and bond ETFs should improve market efficiency and provide protection during market adjustments [62][63].

投资策略 [Table_MainInfo] A 股业绩支撑：政策呵护逻辑下的价格水平 ——A 股市场投资策略专题报告 | 究 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150514080001 | 2025 | 12 | 30 | [Table_Analysis] | [Table_Summary] | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师 | 投资要点： | 宋亦威 | | | | | | | | | | | | 就 | 年行情的业绩支撑而言，并不来自于量的超预期增长，而来自于 | ⚫ | 2026 | 022-23861608 | 价格端的有效支撑。从今年 | 月、11 | 月的情况来看，PPI | 价格已经连续 | 10 | | | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 两月出现环比转正，这种态势如能持续，将意味着明年 | 同比降幅将 | PPI | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_Author] | 严 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in China has marginally declined by 1.8 percentage points to 0.1% year-on-year for the period from January to November 2025, with November showing a significant drop of 13.1% compared to October, which is a decrease of 7.6 percentage points [4] - The industrial added value growth rate for November was 4.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October, influenced by insufficient domestic demand and a high base effect from the previous year [4] - The revenue profit margin for January to November was 5.29%, down by 2.0% year-on-year, indicating a further expansion of the decline compared to the previous months [4] - Among 41 industrial sectors, 18 sectors achieved positive profit growth during the same period, with notable growth in sectors such as black metal smelting and processing, non-ferrous metal mining, and high-tech manufacturing [5] Fund Research - The market saw a continued inflow of nearly 50 billion yuan into the CSI A500 index, with the ETF market scale reaching a new high of over 6 trillion yuan [7][11] - The average return for equity funds was 2.69%, with 87.08% of funds reporting positive returns, while bond funds and other categories also showed positive performance [10] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 914.98 billion yuan, with bond ETFs leading the inflow at 599.48 billion yuan [10] Company Research: WuXi AppTec - WuXi AppTec is positioned as a leading integrated CRDMO provider, offering end-to-end drug development and manufacturing services, with a focus on continuous development through both organic and inorganic growth strategies [15] - The CRO industry is thriving due to the high costs and long timelines associated with drug development, leading to increased demand for specialized services [15] - WuXi Chemistry reported a strong performance in its integrated services, with a significant number of new molecules added to its pipeline, indicating robust growth potential [15] - The company has streamlined its operations by divesting its clinical services research business, allowing it to focus on core competencies and enhance its service offerings [16] Industry Research: Light Industry Manufacturing & Textile Apparel - The Chinese government plans to continue funding support for the "old-for-new" consumption policy in 2026, which has already driven over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales for related products in 2025 [19] - Retail sales of clothing and footwear saw a year-on-year increase of 3.5% in November, reflecting a positive trend in consumer spending [19] - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, indicating challenges in the current market environment [19]

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance, with inflation showing signs of slowing down, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again in December. The Fed's cautious stance indicates only one rate cut is expected in 2026, which is less than market predictions [2][3] - In Europe, a weak economic recovery is coupled with the European Central Bank's increased tolerance for inflation, leading to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [3] - Domestic consumption and investment are slowing due to high bases and weak expectations, while external demand remains strong, particularly in export-oriented sectors. Structural support for service consumption is anticipated as policies support recovery [3][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for stable economic growth and quality improvement, with a focus on the integrated effects of monetary and fiscal policies. A reserve requirement ratio cut is expected to be implemented first, with interest rate cuts being more structural [3][3] Fixed Income Research - Panda bonds, which are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities in China, have seen their market scale exceed 1.14 trillion RMB, reflecting the ongoing internationalization of the RMB and the opening of China's bond market [6][6] - The panda bond market has evolved through three stages: initial exploration (2005-2013), development with increased participation (2014-2022), and rapid expansion and product innovation (2023-present) [6][6] - Panda bonds offer lower financing costs compared to offshore dollar bonds and provide flexibility in fund usage, while also serving as a risk diversification tool for investors [7][7] - As of December 5, 2025, there are 263 panda bonds with a market size of 414.886 billion RMB, indicating a significant increase in issuance driven by policy optimization [7][7] Industry Research - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement has been initiated, with significant developments including the approval of a domestic anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody and the introduction of a weight-loss version of semaglutide for cardiovascular indications [11][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.66% during the week of December 19-25, 2025, with the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increasing by 1.43% [11][11] - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies whose products enter medical insurance and the investment opportunities arising from structural optimization in innovative drug payments, as well as the progress in the medical device sector following the initiation of high-value consumables procurement [12][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the last few trading days of the year, it is expected that there will be limited changes in the bond market. Interest rates may continue a mostly sideways trend. Attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of medium - and long - term varieties, while being vigilant about the high volatility of ultra - long - term varieties and the disturbance of rising cross - year funding prices on 1 - 2Y term varieties. Moderately seize the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds with a term of 7Y and below, as well as the term spread between 5Y - 3Y treasury bonds [2][17]. - In the long run, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, and price signals are the key [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funding Prices: Cross - year Funding Prices Rise - From December 19th to December 25th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 6.59 billion yuan. On the 25th, 40 billion yuan of MLF was carried out, with an over - renewal of 10 billion yuan [2][8]. - During the statistical period, the 14 - day funding price rose significantly, with R014 rising by 24bp. Starting from the 25th, as 7 - day funds began to cross the year, DR007 rose 10bp on that day but remained in the range of 1.4 - 1.5%. Overnight funding prices continued to decline, with DR001 dropping to a new low of 1.26% for the year. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined slightly, with the 1Y certificate of deposit yield falling to around 1.64%, in line with the year - end seasonal characteristic of declining certificate of deposit yields [8]. 3.2 Primary Market: Issuance Nears the End - From December 19th to December 25th, only 11 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, indicating that interest - rate bond issuance is coming to an end [2][9]. 3.3 Secondary Market: The Yield Curve Continues to Steepen - From December 19th to December 25th, the yields of most treasury bonds declined, and the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds continued to weaken. In terms of term structure, the yields of medium - and short - term treasury bonds declined more. The market traded on the expectation that the central bank would increase its support for the funding market and that the bond - buying scale in December would increase. The term spread between 10Y and 1Y treasury bonds widened to 53bp, reaching a new high since January 7, 2025. Long - end interest rates are still in a state of game, with large intraday fluctuations and limited response to Beijing's real - estate relaxation policies. In addition, secondary - market trading volume also decreased seasonally at the year - end [2][10]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentals: Currently, it is hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Factors such as policy expectations, asset price - to - value ratios, and institutional behavior may still be dominant. However, in the longer term, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, with price signals being the key [15]. - Policy: The central bank released the communiqué of the fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting. Three adjustments in the statements are worthy of attention. First, the statement of "preventing idle funds" was deleted. Second, "promoting a decline in the overall social financing cost" was adjusted to "promoting the overall social financing cost to operate at a low level." Combining these two points, it can be understood that the current overall social financing cost is already at a low level. Further interest - rate cuts may face many constraints and may not necessarily achieve good results, but there are still various means to inject funds, and liquidity injection tools of various terms will be used flexibly. Third, "optimizing supply" was added after the statement of "expanding domestic demand." From the perspective of financial institutions, this may indicate that goals such as the total amount of credit issuance are further downplayed, and more emphasis is placed on the quality of issuance [15]. - Funding: As the year - end approaches, funding prices may rise slightly, but with the central bank's open - market operation support, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds is limited [15].

宏 观 研 究 | | | 宏观经济分析报告 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 2026 年仅有一次降息，少于期货市场预测；中期来看，随着地区联储主席 轮换以及新美联储主席提名，整体 FOMC 票委有偏鸽趋向，但从近期几位联 储主席候选人的表态来看，坚守联储"独立性"底线仍是共识。欧洲方 面，经济基本面弱复苏，叠加欧央行对通胀容忍度的放宽和对未来政策路 径的鹰派表述，市场开始交易 2026 年欧央行加息的情形。 国内经济 时至年末，国内消费和投资在高基数、政策退坡、预期偏弱的影响下延续 放缓态势，外需则在非美国家支撑下保持出色表现，由此带动部分出口导 向型行业的生产继续强势。展望来看，高频指标显示 12 月出口存在放缓可 能，但整体幅度有限；内需消费，特别是部分商品，仍会受到高基数制 约，但随着政策支持以及假期陆续开启，服务消费将会提供结构性支撑； 投资端有望在制造业和基建投资先后发力下逐步企稳，而房地产投资在一 定程度受库存去化影响仍在寻底过程中。价格方面，"反内卷"等政策因素 作用下已初现企稳态势 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Neutral" rating, and the specific company, 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), is rated as "Buy" [53] Core Insights - The sixth batch of centralized procurement for high-value medical consumables has been officially launched, covering drug-coated balloon products and urological intervention consumables [7][8] - The first domestically produced anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody, 达伯欣® (Dabaoxin), has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for marketing [8] - A weight-loss version of 司美格鲁肽 (Semaglutide) has gained approval for cardiovascular indications in China [9] - The SW pharmaceutical industry index has shown a 1.43% increase, with most sub-sectors experiencing growth [41] - The industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is reported at 50.75 times, with a valuation premium of 259% relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [47] Industry News - The National Medical Insurance Administration has released a new drug catalog, which is expected to enhance the market potential for related pharmaceutical companies [52] - The recent approval of various drugs and clinical trials indicates a robust pipeline for innovative treatments in the industry [25][27][29][30][31][32][35] Company Announcements - Several companies, including 丽珠集团 (Lizhu Group) and 艾力斯 (Eli Lilly), have received approvals for new drug applications and clinical trials, indicating ongoing innovation and development in the sector [25][26][27][29][30] - 恒瑞医药 has been included in the list of breakthrough therapy products, highlighting its significant advancements in drug development [27] Market Review - The overall market has shown positive trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.66% during the week [41] - The pharmaceutical sector's performance reflects a general upward trend, with specific sub-sectors like chemical pharmaceuticals and medical services leading the gains [41] Weekly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies that have products entering the medical insurance catalog, as this could lead to increased market volume and investment opportunities [52]

Macro and Strategy Research - The report indicates that with the easing of uncertainties in US-China trade, external demand is expected to remain stable, while effective domestic demand still needs to be boosted [2] - The central economic work conference has set a relatively restrained overall policy for 2026, but structural policy optimization is expected to bring some highlights [2] - The report forecasts that the scale of equity public funds will continue to expand, and financing scale is expected to maintain steady growth, supporting positive liquidity expectations in the investment sector [3] - The market is anticipated to return to a slowly rising central trend after recent fluctuations, with a focus on long-term investments and thematic investments, particularly in technology sectors [3] Industry Research - The report highlights that companies like Zhipu and MiniMax are progressing towards IPOs in Hong Kong, which may provide key benchmarks for industry valuation and financing systems [5] - ByteDance is projected to invest approximately 160 billion yuan in AI infrastructure in 2026, indicating significant capital inflow into the AI sector [5] - Google's parent company has acquired Intersect for $4.75 billion, enhancing its data center power layout, which reflects ongoing investment trends in the tech industry [6] - The report notes that the computer industry has seen a 1.27% increase in the Shenwan Computer Index from December 18 to December 24, with most sub-sectors experiencing growth [6] - The report emphasizes that the successful IPOs of Zhipu and MiniMax could lead to a virtuous cycle of R&D investment and commercialization in the AI sector [6] - Domestic enterprises are accelerating their layout in consumer applications, which is expected to help form a comprehensive AI business ecosystem [6]