投资策略 +-[Table_MainInfo]春节消费温和复苏，市场呈现资金回流 ――A 股市场投资策略周报 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | 月 | SAC NO： S1150514080001 2026 | 26 | | | 年 | 日 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | | | 宋亦威 | | | | | 市场回顾，节后 月 月 日），重要指数纷纷收涨； ⚫ 个交易日（2 24 日-2 26 | 3 | | | | | | 022-23861608 | | | | | 其中，上证综指收涨 1.58%，创业板指收涨 2.11%；风格层面，沪深 | | | | 300 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | | | | | 收涨 1.43%，中证 500 收涨 3.10%。成交方面有所放量，两市统计区间 | | | | | | | | | | | | 内成交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the computer industry and an "Accumulate" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [1][27]. Core Insights - The AI application ecosystem is accelerating, with significant financing events for large model companies expected to enhance infrastructure and model iteration [1][26]. - Domestic models are leading in the OpenRouter token usage rankings, with Chinese models accounting for 61% of the total token volume [11]. - Kimi has raised over $1.2 billion in financing, doubling its valuation to over $10 billion, marking the highest financing amount in the large model sector in the past year [11]. - Anthropic has launched enterprise plugins to integrate its AI model Claude into Microsoft Office, challenging traditional software companies [12][13]. - The AI computing power demand is projected to maintain high growth, supported by significant capital expenditures from major cloud computing firms [26]. Industry News - The top three models in token usage on the OpenRouter platform are all domestic models: Minimax M2.5, Kimi K2.5, and GLM-5, with a total token volume of approximately 8.7 trillion [11]. - Kimi's recent financing rounds have attracted major investors, including Alibaba and Tencent, indicating strong market confidence [11]. - Anthropic's new enterprise AI tools allow seamless integration with popular office software, enhancing workflow automation for clients [12][13]. Company Announcements - Hongsoft Technology reported a total revenue of 923 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.22%, with a net profit of 258 million yuan, up 45.86% [15]. - Kaipu Cloud announced the termination of a major asset restructuring plan, indicating strategic shifts within the company [17]. Market Review - From February 12 to February 25, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.47%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry index fell by 0.61%, with most sub-sectors experiencing declines [18]. - The Shenwan Computer Industry's price-to-earnings ratio as of February 25 was 217.97 times, with a valuation premium of 1499.98% relative to the CSI 300 [19]. Weekly Strategy - The report suggests that the AI application sector is approaching a commercialization inflection point, driven by rapid model iteration and promotion by major internet companies [26][27]. - Investment opportunities are identified in the computing power supply chain, particularly for companies with strong AI technology implementation capabilities [27].

Company Research - The company is a leading precision manufacturing enterprise, focusing on the dual main businesses of bearings and abrasive tools, with applications in key national economic sectors such as aerospace, automotive, energy, and construction [11] - The global bearing market is expected to grow from approximately USD 145.19 billion in 2025 to USD 329.4 billion by 2034, indicating significant growth potential for the company's bearing segment [11] - The company has a strong advantage in special bearings for the aerospace sector, achieving a 90%配套率 for key products in major Chinese space missions [11] - The company is expanding into high-value products such as robot bearings and has plans to develop cross-roller bearings and thin-walled bearings [11] Industry Research - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in downstream markets post-holiday, with attention on actual demand recovery and macroeconomic influences on steel prices [16] - Copper prices are anticipated to remain stable due to strong demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI, despite a slow recovery in demand [16] - The aluminum sector is influenced significantly by macroeconomic sentiment, with expectations of demand recovery impacting prices [16] - The rare earth sector is projected to maintain high prices due to tight supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxides, driven by demand from robotics and new energy applications [18]

- The main indices of the A-share market mostly declined last week, with the CSI 500 index having the largest increase of 1.04%, and the SSE 50 index having the largest decrease of 1.49%[9][10] - As of February 24, the balance of margin trading and securities lending in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2,614.239 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.544 billion yuan from the previous week[12][15] - The financing balance was 2,597.750 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.299 billion yuan from the previous week, and the securities lending balance was 16.488 billion yuan, a decrease of 245 million yuan from the previous week[12][15] - The average daily number of investors participating in margin trading and securities lending transactions from February 11 to February 24 was 422,471, a decrease of 2.21% from the previous week[23] - The industries with higher net financing purchases last week were building materials, environmental protection, and social services, while the industries with lower net financing purchases were electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics[30] - The industries with higher net securities lending sales last week were basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and building decoration, while the industries with lower net securities lending sales were electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, and banking[33] - The top five ETFs with the highest net financing purchases last week were ChinaAMC Hang Seng Technology ETF (QDII), E Fund CSI Overseas China Internet 50 (QDII-ETF), ChinaAMC Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF (QDII), HFT CSI Short-term Bond ETF, and Guotai Gold ETF[45][46] - The top five stocks with the highest net financing purchases last week were China Jushi (600176), Biwin Storage (688525), Dongshan Precision (002384), Kingsoft Office (688111), and GigaDevice (603986)[49][51] - The top five stocks with the highest net securities lending sales last week were Shenzhen Tech (000021), Xiangnong Chip (300475), Tongkun Group (601233), China Tungsten High-tech (000657), and Mindray Medical (300760)[54]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [2] - Companies recommended for "Increase" rating include Zhonglian Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, Jiechang Drive, and Haomai Technology [2] Core Viewpoints - The Spring Festival Gala featured humanoid robots, enhancing brand visibility and commercial acceleration, which is expected to expedite industry deployment [2][29] - The humanoid robot industry remains highly prosperous, with several domestic companies pursuing IPOs and significant events anticipated in 2026 [2][29] - 2026 is identified as a critical year for the development of the humanoid robot industry, suggesting continued investment opportunities in the supply chain [2][29] Industry News - Blue Arrow Aerospace announced the second quarter recovery test for the Zhuque-3 rocket [11] - The average operating rate of construction machinery in January 2026 was 37.15%, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.71% [11] Industry Data - As of February 13, 2026, the steel comprehensive price index (CSPI) was 90.68 [12] - As of February 24, 2026, WTI and Brent crude oil prices were $66.31 per barrel and $71.11 per barrel, respectively [13] Company Announcements - Zhuozhao Dispensing reported a 202.58% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2025, with expected revenue of approximately 378.59 million yuan [19] - Dazhu Laser plans to invest $150 million to establish an overseas operation center in Southeast Asia [20] Market Review - From February 12 to February 24, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.13%, while the machinery industry rose by 2.01%, outperforming the index by 2.14 percentage points [21] - As of February 24, 2026, the machinery industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (PE, TTM) was 52.63, with a valuation premium of 270.76% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [22]

铝：基本面表现一般，近期宏观情绪对铝价影响较大，关注节后实际需求恢复 情况和宏观消息影响。 黄金：考虑到近期地缘政治风险不确定性上升，金价或得到支撑。 锂：市场对 3 月下游排产预期乐观，需关注节后下游需求恢复情况，若实际 需求表现较好，锂价或得到支撑。 稀土：考虑到目前氧化镨钕供应依然紧缺，短期氧化镨钕价格有望维持高位。 行 行业周报 静待国内需求复苏，关注宏观情绪影响 ——金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2026 年 2 月 25 日 钢铁 有色金属 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 研究助理 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：节后下游市场将缓慢复苏，关注实际需求复苏进度、原料价格走势和宏 观消息对钢价影响。 铜：节后需求复苏仍需时间，铜精矿加工费低位下跌，叠加新能源、AI 等需 求预期依旧强劲，预计节后铜价维持高位震荡。 本周策略 （1）钢铁：随着钢铁行业稳增长政策逐步实施，行业竞争格局改善预期下后 续行业盈利水平或得到提升，未来船舶用钢等领域需求有望得到提振。建议 关注工厂设备先进、在船舶钢等高附加值领 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [2] Core Insights - The company is a leading precision manufacturing enterprise, focusing on the synergistic development of bearings and abrasive tools [2][18] - The global bearing market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected size of approximately $145.19 billion in 2025, increasing to $329.4 billion by 2034, driven by demand in sectors such as automotive and aerospace [3][28] - The company has a strong advantage in the aerospace sector, with a product support rate exceeding 90% for key special bearings used in major Chinese space missions [3][41] - The demand for synthetic diamonds is increasing, with a shift from structural applications to functional applications in areas such as thermal management and semiconductors [4][52] Company Overview - The company, established in 2001 and listed in 2005, has undergone several name changes, most recently to China National Machinery Industry Group Precision Engineering Co., Ltd. in 2023 [2][18] - The company is a core platform for the precision business of China National Machinery Group, with its main operations in bearings and abrasive tools, serving critical industries globally [2][19] Industry Background - The bearing market is characterized by significant growth potential, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.53% expected from 2026 to 2034 [28] - The global commercial aerospace market is projected to reach $612 billion by 2024, with China's market growing at a CAGR of 22.5% during the same period [33] - The wind power sector is also expanding, with global installations expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.79% [41] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.158 billion, 3.632 billion, and 4.224 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 298 million, 373 million, and 481 million yuan [5][8] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 0.56, 0.70, and 0.90 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 84.34 for 2025 [5][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided [1] Core Viewpoints - During the pre - holiday week from February 9th to February 13th, 2026, most major equity market indices rose, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 having the largest increase of 3.37%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 18 industries rose, and the top five industries in terms of increase were comprehensive, computer, electronics, media, and building materials; the top five industries in terms of decline were textile and apparel, food and beverage, beauty care, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and commercial trade [1][12] - The overall capital of the ETF market had a net outflow of 1.3179 billion yuan during the pre - holiday week. Structurally, stock - type ETFs had a relatively large net outflow of 48.694 billion yuan. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market reached 450.855 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume reached 162.268 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate reached 7.24% [3][47] - In the pre - holiday week, 8 new funds were issued, 25 less than the previous period; 64 new funds were established, 24 more than the previous period. New funds raised a total of 58.33 billion yuan, 27.471 billion yuan more than the previous period [4][60] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Situation - During the pre - holiday week from February 9th to February 13th, 2026, most major equity market indices rose, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rising by 3.37%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 18 industries rose, and the top five industries in terms of increase were comprehensive, computer, electronics, media, and building materials; the top five industries in terms of decline were textile and apparel, food and beverage, beauty care, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and commercial trade. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index rose by 0.11%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond, Financial Bond, and Credit Bond Total Full - Price Indices rose between 0.06% and 0.13%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.08%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index fell by 0.23% [12] 1.2欧美及亚太市场情况 - During the pre - holiday week, the major indices in the European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets rose and fell differently. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 index rose by 2.41%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.15%, and the Nasdaq index fell by 2.10%. In the European market, the French CAC40 rose by 0.46% and the German DAX rose by 0.78%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.03% and the Nikkei 225 rose by 4.96% [20] 1.3 Market Valuation Situation - During the pre - holiday week, the valuation quantiles of most major market indices rose. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 had the highest increase, rising by 3.5 percentage points; in terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - book ratio, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 also had the highest increase, at 3.8 percentage points. Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio of the Shenwan primary index during the pre - holiday week were real estate, electronics, comprehensive, building materials, and chemical industry. The price - to - earnings ratio quantile of the real estate industry remained at a high level, and the price - to - earnings ratio quantile of the electronics industry reached 95.2%. The bottom five industries with low historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio were non - bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, beauty care, and communication. The valuation of the non - bank finance industry was close to its historical low since 2013 [24] 2. Active - type Public - offering Fund Situation - Market hotspots: The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange respectively released the "ETF Industry Development Report (2026)" and the "ETF Market Development White Paper (2025)". In 2025, the Chinese ETF market achieved a historical leap, with the total scale of domestic ETFs exceeding 6.02 trillion yuan, an annual increase of 62%. The scale of Shanghai - listed ETFs reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with the trading volume ranking first in Asia; the scale of Shenzhen - listed ETFs reached 1.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 79%. The net inflow of funds into the domestic ETF market exceeded 1.16 trillion yuan, with Shanghai accounting for more than 65%. Four ETFs had a dividend scale of over 1 billion yuan [2][32][35] - Fund performance: The equity market oscillated and recovered. Among them, equity - biased funds had the largest increase, with an average increase of 1.48% and a positive return ratio of 75.86%; fixed - income + funds increased by an average of 0.28% with a positive return ratio of 87.14%; pure - bond funds increased by an average of 0.10% with a positive return ratio of 99.24%; pension - target FOFs increased by an average of 1.14% with a positive return ratio of 100.00%. In addition, QDII funds increased by an average of 0.72% with a positive return ratio of 51.70% [2] - Through the calculation of the industry positions of active equity funds, during the pre - holiday week, the industries with the highest increase in positions were building materials, comprehensive, and petroleum and petrochemical; the industries with the highest decrease in positions were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and real estate. The overall position of active equity funds on February 13, 2026, was 76.37%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points compared with the previous period [2][43][44] 3. ETF Fund Situation - During the pre - holiday week, the overall capital of the ETF market had a net outflow of 1.3179 billion yuan. Structurally, stock - type ETFs had a relatively large net outflow of 48.694 billion yuan. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market reached 450.855 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume reached 162.268 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate reached 7.24% [3][47] - In terms of individual bonds, during the pre - holiday week, broad - based indices such as the CSI A500, CSI 300, SSE Science and Technology Innovation 50 Component, and CSI Small - cap 500 Index showed a net outflow of funds, among which the net outflow of funds from the CSI A500 index exceeded 15 billion yuan. In contrast, sectors such as short - term financing, urban investment bonds, Hang Seng Technology, Internet, and robotics were the main capital inflow varieties [3][55] 4. Fund Issuance Situation Statistics - During the pre - holiday week, 8 new funds were issued in China, 25 less than the previous period; among them, there were 2 active equity - biased funds and 2 passive index funds. The two passive index funds were both stock - type, mainly tracking the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology and CSI A500 indices. Currently, the issuance share of active equity funds is still at a historical low, but there has been an obvious upward trend since this year [57] - During the pre - holiday week, 64 new funds were established in China, 24 more than the previous period. New funds raised a total of 58.33 billion yuan, 27.471 billion yuan more than the previous period; among them, the Peng'an Antai Interest - rate Bond A managed by Sun Chenge and Cai Yufei had the largest raised scale, about 6 billion yuan [60]

证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/02/25） 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.25） 固定收益研究 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄——信用债周报 行业研究 美国关税政策再生变，对华关税迎边际下降——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/25） 固定收益研究 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 9 日至 2 月 15 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-4 BP 至 0 BP。 本期信用债发行规模环比下降，企业债保持零发行，其余品种发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比减少， 企业债净融资额增加，其余品种净融资额减少，企业债、短期融资券净融资额为负，其余品种净融资额为 正 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [6][53] - Specific companies such as Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Pathfinder (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guibao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co. (002891) are given an "Overweight" rating [6][53] Core Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the large-scale tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration were illegal, leading to a marginal decrease in tariffs on imports from China [2][14] - Following the ruling, President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% temporary import tariff, which was later increased to 15% [14] - The current U.S. tariff policy is expected to provide some support for domestic export chain enterprises in terms of order and valuation improvement [4][52] Industry News - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.17 percentage points from February 9 to February 13, with a performance of 0.53% compared to the CSI 300's 0.36% [3][45] - The textile apparel sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.14 percentage points during the same period, with a performance of -2.77% [3][48] Important Company Announcements - Pathfinder plans to implement a stock incentive plan for 72 employees, involving 6.7268 million shares [44] - Yutong Technology intends to acquire 51% of Dongguan Huayan New Materials for 449 million yuan [44] Market Review - The light industry manufacturing sector's performance was influenced by changes in actual control, price increases from leading paper companies, and significant order signings [45] - The textile apparel sector's performance was affected by fluctuations in gold and lithium carbonate prices, as well as issues related to information disclosure by some companies [48]