Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - US non-farm employment data for July fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions for May and June, indicating a weakening job market[2] - The unemployment rate is rising, influenced by immigration policies that lower labor participation rates[2] - Forward-looking indicators such as manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employment components have reached recent lows, reflecting overall economic weakness[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The divergence in interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is notable, with US officials expressing concerns about the labor market while maintaining a neutral stance overall[5] - European inflation data shows July CPI growth near central bank targets, reinforcing confidence in keeping policy rates unchanged[5] Group 3: China's Economic Performance - China's export growth has exceeded expectations, supported by low base effects and stable demand from non-US countries, while exports to the US have weakened due to diminishing tariff relief effects[5] - Domestic demand remains uncertain, with imports primarily driven by integrated circuits and high-tech products, while the improvement in bulk commodity imports is largely price-driven[5] Group 4: Policy Developments - Recent government policies, such as the implementation of childcare subsidies and the promotion of free preschool education, aim to alleviate financial pressures on low- and middle-income families and support long-term population development[5] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - Prices for non-ferrous metals have generally increased, while oil prices have declined, reflecting broader market dynamics[4]

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 5.8%[1] - The trade surplus for July was $98.245 billion, down from $114.751 billion in the previous month[1] - Exports to non-US countries showed strong growth, particularly to the EU, Australia, Africa, and Latin America, while exports to the US declined by approximately 5.5 percentage points to -21.7%[2] Import Dynamics - Imports in July 2025 rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.1% and market expectations of 0.3%[1] - The contribution of integrated circuits and high-tech products to overall import growth was approximately 4.3 percentage points[3] - Imports from Africa, Latin America, and India increased, while imports from Europe and the US fell by 2.0 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively, to -1.6% and -18.9%[3] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to moderate due to high inventory levels and interest rates in the US, which will likely suppress demand[4] - The recent increase in tariffs by the Trump administration on certain countries adds uncertainty to the export environment[4] - Export pressures are anticipated to become more evident by the end of Q3 2025, although the overall slowdown is expected to be manageable[4] Risks - Geopolitical risks may elevate global trade uncertainties, impacting market risk appetite[6] - Unexpected changes in economic conditions or policies could lead to adjustments in related policies, especially given the current economic transition phase domestically[6]

Macro Perspective - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3% supported by policies such as "two new" and "two heavy" as well as the overseas "export grabbing/transshipment effect" [3] - The urgency for short-term policy adjustments has decreased, with the focus shifting to the implementation of existing policies [3] Macro Liquidity - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates in July, raising concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession due to subsequent downward revisions of non-farm employment data [3] - Domestic policies will be adjusted based on changing risk challenges, with a focus on the implementation of existing monetary policies [3] Capital Market Liquidity - The A-share market has seen a recovery in investor sentiment, with increased trading volume and turnover rates, leading to rapid expansion in margin financing [4] - The overall liquidity in the A-share market is expected to continue its incremental process, supported by policy factors [4] A-share Market Outlook - Despite short-term challenges from mid-year performance reports, the "anti-involution" policy is expected to open up profit expectations [4] - A-share valuations may not be considered undervalued, but there is potential for price expectations to improve, supporting valuation increases [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities can be found in sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), pharmaceuticals, and defense industries, driven by AI trends and policy support [4] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from the stabilization of the capital market [4] - Resource sectors, including non-ferrous metals and chemicals, may see investment opportunities due to capacity management initiatives [4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Situation - In the first half of the year, GDP growth reached 5.3% year-on-year, supported by policies such as "Two New" and "Two Heavy," as well as the overseas "export grabbing effect" [5][33] - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with real estate investment being a major drag, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5% [24][26] - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for stable economic growth and the implementation of effective policies to support the economy [34] Group 2: Liquidity Environment - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in July, with market expectations for a rate cut in September rising to 93.6% following disappointing employment data [39][40] - Domestic monetary policy is expected to remain loose and abundant, focusing on the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones [38][45] - The liquidity in the capital market has shown signs of improvement, with increased trading volumes and a rise in margin financing [51][83] Group 3: Capital Market Liquidity Environment - The A-share market has experienced a significant increase in trading volume and turnover rate, driven by favorable policies and improved market sentiment [51][83] - The July IPO fundraising level was three times higher than the average of other months this year, indicating a recovery in market capacity [75] - The net reduction in industrial capital reached 242.1 billion yuan in July, reflecting increased activity in the secondary market [75] Group 4: Market Strategy - The market is entering a phase of strong expectations versus weak realities, with the "anti-involution" policy expected to influence price levels and performance [94] - Valuation is shifting from price-to-earnings (PE) to price-to-book (PB) ratios, with PB valuations generally below the 50th percentile [95][96] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium term, with potential adjustments providing opportunities for stronger future gains [100]

Market Overview - In July 2025, all major A-share indices rose, with the ChiNext Index showing the highest increase of 8.14% and the Shanghai 50 Index the lowest at 2.36% [2] - The total margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,978.497 billion yuan, an increase of 133.858 billion yuan from the previous month [2] Company Research: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) - In the first half of 2025, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 2.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.32%, and a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 42.56% [14] - The company has made significant progress in its overseas business, achieving revenue of 1.575 billion yuan from international markets, a growth of 17.61% [14] - The pet food segment, particularly the staple food category, saw substantial growth, with revenue reaching 783 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 85.79% [15] Industry Research: Pharmaceutical and Biological Sector - The pharmaceutical and biological sector experienced a significant increase of 13.93% in July 2025, driven by innovative drugs and CXO segments [5] - Key policies supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs were introduced, which are expected to positively impact the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors [4] - The cumulative revenue of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry for the first half of 2025 was 1,227.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [4] Industry Research: Machinery Equipment Sector - The machinery equipment sector outperformed the market with a 9.82% increase from July 6 to August 5, 2025 [7] - The sales of excavators in the first half of 2025 showed a growth rate exceeding 20%, indicating strong domestic demand [7] - The upcoming World Robot Conference is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in humanoid robots [8] Industry Research: Metals Sector - The steel market is expected to experience limited upward momentum due to recent price adjustments, with short-term prices likely to fluctuate [10] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply despite recent adjustments due to U.S. tariffs [10] - The aluminum market may see price increases if actual inventory demand performs well in the upcoming months [11]

Core Viewpoints - In July, the issuance guidance rates for all maturities declined, with an overall change of -20 BP to -1 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds slightly decreased month-on-month, with corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and directed tools seeing a decrease, while enterprise bonds and short-term financing bonds increased [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes seeing a decrease. Other varieties showed an increase, with corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds having positive net financing amounts [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, while the transaction amounts of enterprise bonds and directed tools decreased. The yield of credit bonds showed a fluctuating trend, with the monthly average lower than June [2] - The credit spread showed a similar trend to yields, initially narrowing, then widening, and finally narrowing again. Most varieties of medium-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds saw a month-on-month narrowing of credit spreads [2] - From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand continue to support the strengthening of credit bonds. Despite inevitable fluctuations due to various factors, the long-term yield is expected to remain in a downward channel, making it feasible to increase allocations during adjustments [2] Industry Insights - The real estate market is undergoing adjustments, but with the implementation of policies to stabilize the market, it is moving towards stabilization. The recovery in sales will significantly impact bond valuations, and funds with higher risk tolerance may consider early positioning [3] - The focus for allocation remains on historically stable, high-performing central and state-owned enterprises, as well as high-quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. This strategy aims to extend duration and enhance returns while also considering trading opportunities from undervalued real estate enterprise bonds [3] - Urban investment bonds are still a key allocation variety under the backdrop of stabilizing growth and preventing systemic risks, with a low likelihood of defaults. However, attention should be paid to potential valuation fluctuations during the acceleration of urban investment platform clean-up and transformation [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a continued preference for high-grade long-duration credit bonds amidst a fluctuating but generally strong market trend [1][62] - It highlights a slight decrease in the issuance scale of credit bonds in July, with a net financing increase, indicating a mixed but generally positive market sentiment [2][12][19] Group 1: Primary Market Conditions - In July, a total of 1,435 credit bonds were issued, amounting to 12,900.31 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.27% [12] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased to 3,662.83 billion, a month-on-month increase of 954.08 billion [12] - The issuance rates for various maturities decreased, with overall changes ranging from -20 BP to -1 BP [14][18] Group 2: Secondary Market Conditions - The total transaction volume of credit bonds in July reached 41,783.17 billion, representing a month-on-month growth of 4.05% [19] - Credit spreads for most varieties of credit bonds narrowed, with the trend mirroring that of yields [22][29] - The report notes that the overall yield of credit bonds exhibited a volatile trend, with a monthly average decline compared to June [62] Group 3: Investment Perspectives - The report suggests that the current market conditions favor high-grade bonds due to their potential for price recovery and the limited space for compression in short-term credit spreads [62][67] - It recommends focusing on bonds from state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises with strong guarantees, as these are expected to provide better risk-adjusted returns [67] - The report also indicates that the ongoing adjustments in the market necessitate a strategic approach to bond selection, emphasizing the importance of monitoring interest rate trends and individual bond coupon values [62][67]

Fixed Income Research - The new bond tax regulation, effective from August 8, 2025, reinstates VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, while maintaining VAT exemption for bonds issued before this date until maturity [2][3] - The tax policy change reduces the tax advantages previously enjoyed by government and financial bonds, particularly affecting public funds, asset management products, and proprietary trading departments differently based on their tax rates [3][4] - The new regulation is expected to widen the yield spread between new and old bonds by approximately 4-12 basis points, influencing investor behavior towards older bonds [4][5] - The anticipated annual tax revenue increase from the new bond tax regulation is estimated to be in the hundreds of millions, which is relatively limited compared to the total debt interest expenditure [5] Fund Research - In July, the market saw an increase in valuations across major indices, with the CSI 500 showing significant growth in historical valuation percentiles [7] - A total of 92 new funds were launched in July, with a total issuance scale of 703.43 billion, indicating a strong interest in both active equity and index funds [7][8] - Growth style funds outperformed value style funds, with mid-cap growth funds showing a notable increase of 8.23% [8] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 676.83 billion, with significant interest in bond ETFs, while stock ETFs faced outflows [9][10] Industry Research - The retail sales of furniture reached 98.2 billion, growing by 22.9% year-on-year, while clothing and textile retail sales totaled 742.59 billion, with a growth of 3.1% [14] - The introduction of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to boost the entire maternity and childcare industry, particularly benefiting sectors like maternal and infant products [14][15] - The Guangdong Paper Association's initiative to promote "anti-involution" is likely to lead to price increases in packaging paper, benefiting leading companies in the sector [15] - The easing of Sino-US tariff issues may provide support for domestic exports, particularly for companies with a global layout [15]

晨会纪要（2025/08/04） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.04） 宏观及策略研究 维稳当下，谋篇布局——2025 年 8 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 把握阶段性修复行情——利率债 8 月投资策略展望 行业研究 恒瑞医药与 GSK 达成大额合作，关注创新产业链——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/08/04） 宏观及策略研究 维稳当下，谋篇布局——2025 年 8 月宏观经济月报 周喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、海外经济及政策环境 美国方面，虽然二季度消费和投资分项偏弱，但总体经济仍在进口拖累减弱帮助下表现出韧性，通胀数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to experience a phased recovery, but there is a lack of new catalysts for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. Therefore, the recovery space should not be overestimated. It is expected that the bond market will shift to a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and opportunities in long - term varieties can be grasped during the recovery phase [7][79][80]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 July Market Review 1.1 资金价格: 前松后紧 - In July 2025, the funding price showed a pattern of being loose in the first half and tight in the second half. In the first and middle ten - days, the central bank was willing to protect liquidity, and DR007 fluctuated around 1.5%. In the second half, the reverse repurchases over - issued during the tax period matured one after another, and the central bank chose to renew them in a reduced volume, which might intentionally tighten the funding side to cool down the equity market indirectly. DR007 rose rapidly above 1.6% at non - tax and non - end - of - month points. After the open market turned to net investment at the end of the month, the funding price eased to some extent [2][11][16]. 1.2 一级市场：政金债发行规模较高 - In July 2025, the issuance of treasury bonds decreased marginally, while the issuance scale of local bonds and policy - financial bonds increased. In terms of issuance, interest - rate bonds issued a total of 3.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 150 billion yuan month - on - month. Among them, treasury bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, less than each month in the second quarter; local bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, the highest monthly level in 2025; policy - financial bonds issued 0.8 trillion yuan, the highest monthly issuance in history. In terms of net financing, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 1.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 200 billion yuan month - on - month [11][18]. 1.3 二级市场：10Y国债收益率站上 1.7% - In the first and middle ten - days of July, the bond market was in a volatile pattern, with multiple factors overlapping but no main line. The bond market mainly focused on exploring variety spreads. In the second half of July, the bond market was under pressure as the Ya'an project started, boosting the total demand expectation, and the "inflation trade" became the main suppressing force in the bond market. The redemption pressure of bond funds and wealth management products also increased. It was not until the Politburo meeting at the end of July revealed the signal of "implementing existing policies" and the July PMI data showed that the fundamentals were still under pressure that the bond market had a slight recovery. As of July 31, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.7%, up 6bp from the end of June [11][3][32]. 基本面展望：压力不容忽视 - The "rush - to - export" effect may be coming to an end, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports may decline in the next 1 - 2 months. Under the promotion of "anti - involution", the growth rates of industrial production and manufacturing investment may slow down. Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. Consumption data may decline periodically until new growth points emerge after the "trade - in" policy. PPI data may improve, and the year - on - year and month - on - month decline is expected to narrow. After the "inflation trade" sentiment cools down, external and internal demand pressures will return to the spotlight, which is still a favorable environment for the bond market [58][79]. 政策展望:存量政策"落实落细" 3.1 财政政策:政府债供给压力或加大 - In terms of fiscal revenue and expenditure, government - funded expenditures increased significantly in June. In terms of public fiscal revenue, the year - on - year decline in the first half of the year continued, but the revenue structure improved. In terms of public fiscal expenditure, the year - on - year increase in the first half of the year narrowed compared with January - May, and the expenditure rhythm slowed down, but the support for people's livelihood and the technology field did not decrease. In terms of government - funded revenue and expenditure, the revenue growth improved under the drive of a low base, and the expenditure side increased significantly. The Politburo meeting's policy statement on fiscal policy is generally positive for the bond market. In August, the supply pressure of government bonds may increase [62][68][69]. 3.2 货币政策:主要关注公开市场操作 - In June, the total and structure of financial data improved. The Politburo meeting in July continued the tone of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, but removed the expression of "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" compared with April. It is indicated that the central bank still has the intention to protect liquidity, and the necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is not strong. Attention should be paid to the central bank's open - market operation dynamics [73][74]. 债市展望 - The bond market is expected to have a phased recovery, but the lack of new catalysts makes it difficult for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. It is expected to turn into a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and long - term varieties can be considered during the recovery [79][80].