Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for December 2025 shows a stable overall economy with a GDP growth of 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations, but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter [2] - The industrial output value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while retail sales growth was lower at 0.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a decline of 3.8% year-on-year, indicating a weakening investment environment [2] - The economic growth pattern for 2025 indicates a stronger supply than demand, with external demand outpacing internal demand, which is expected to continue into 2026 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects [2] Production Structure - The industrial output growth in December 2025 showed a slight recovery, with high-tech manufacturing outpacing overall growth, indicating an optimization in production structure [3] - The production capacity utilization and sales rates reached their highest levels of the year, suggesting an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in December 2025 was lower than expected, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption [3] - The decline in disposable income growth indicates a constraint on consumer spending capacity, although new policies are expected to support consumption in early 2026 [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where investment growth rates fell significantly [4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize due to government initiatives, while real estate investment continues to struggle with a year-on-year decline of 35.8% [5] Fixed Income Research - Credit bond issuance increased, with a downward trend in overall interest rates, indicating a favorable environment for credit bonds despite a reduction in net financing [6] - The credit spread for various bond types is at historical lows, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for credit bonds [6][8] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is facing limited short-term demand pressure, with expectations of price stabilization due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment [9] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable despite weak supply dynamics, supported by positive long-term demand forecasts [10] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to improve due to demand from electric vehicles and high-pressure power grids, despite current oversupply issues [11] - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. economic data, with long-term demand expected to rise [12]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, the actual GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter[2] - The annual economic growth for 2025 was characterized by a high start and a low finish, influenced by policy timing and demand-supply dynamics[3] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in December 2025 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.0%[2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors showed growth rates significantly above the overall industrial average, indicating a shift in production structure[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 grew by only 0.9% year-on-year, below the expected 1.0% and down from 1.3% in the previous month[2] - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with specific sectors like cultural and communication equipment showing stronger performance[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8% by December 2025, worse than the expected decline of 3.1%[2] - Real estate investment dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[6] Future Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects[3] - Further policy measures are anticipated to support consumer spending and investment recovery in 2026[5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors all declined, with an overall change range of -8 BP to -1 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, but the net financing amount decreased due to the increase in the maturity scale. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and most of the yields declined. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes and urban investment bonds were differentiated, while those of enterprise bonds mostly narrowed. In the long run, the yields of credit bonds are still in a downward channel, but one should be cautious when chasing high, and can increase positions during adjustments. One can implement a coupon strategy through credit sinking and extending the duration, and pay attention to the coordination and transformation of allocation and trading strategies [1][53]. - The central and local governments are continuously optimizing real estate policies, which play a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market. As the market stabilizes, risk - preferring funds can consider early deployment in real estate bonds, focusing on enterprises with outstanding new financing and sales performance. The allocation focus is on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [2][55]. - Under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of urban investment bond default is very low, and it can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. One can pay attention to the reform and transformation opportunities of "entity - type" financing platforms, and the allocation strategy can prioritize short - to - medium - term credit sinking, while the trading strategy can choose to extend the duration of medium - and high - grade bonds [3][55]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, a total of 335 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 288.193 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%. The net financing amount was 34.34 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 82.176 billion yuan. The issuance amounts of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and short - term financing bills increased, while those of medium - term notes and private placement notes decreased. The net financing amounts of all varieties decreased, with negative net financing for enterprise bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes, and positive net financing for corporate bonds and short - term financing bills [12]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors all declined, with an overall change range of -8 BP to -1 BP. By term, the 1 - year variety rate changed from -6 BP to -1 BP, the 3 - year variety from -8 BP to -1 BP, the 5 - year variety from -6 BP to -2 BP, and the 7 - year variety from -6 BP to -1 BP. By rating, the key AAA - grade and AAA - grade variety rates changed from -3 BP to -1 BP, the AA + - grade variety from -5 BP to -3 BP, the AA - grade variety from -6 BP to -3 BP, and the AA - - grade variety from -8 BP to -3 BP [13][15]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 931.702 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 9.52%. The trading volume of short - term financing bills decreased, while that of other varieties increased [16]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. For enterprise bonds, most of the credit spreads narrowed. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads were also differentiated [19][25][28]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y, 5Y - 3Y, and 7Y - 3Y term spreads all narrowed, and most of the 3 - year rating spreads also narrowed. For AA + enterprise bonds, the term spreads mostly narrowed, and the 3 - year rating spreads all narrowed. For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads narrowed, and the 3 - year rating spreads all narrowed [37][42][46]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments [51]. 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - During the same period, there were no defaults or extensions of credit bonds under any issuer [52]. 3.4 Investment Views - The overall view is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that credit bonds will continue the repair market, and one can implement a coupon strategy through credit sinking and extending the duration, while paying attention to the coordination of strategies and the impacts of policies, the equity market, and the supply - demand pattern [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [7][8]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation continues to create volatility, but gold prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing tensions [3][52]. - The steel industry is anticipated to see improved profitability due to the implementation of growth policies and an optimistic demand outlook in sectors like shipbuilding and construction [4][5]. - The copper market is expected to tighten due to supply constraints from major mines, while demand is projected to increase in sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [4][41]. - The aluminum sector faces challenges with oversupply in alumina and potential short-term price corrections, but the demand from the new energy vehicle sector remains a key focus [4][48]. - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export controls and the strategic importance of rare earth resources [7][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Current steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and short-term demand decline is limited, with expectations of price support before the Spring Festival [5][19]. - As of January 16, 2026, the total steel inventory was 12.4955 million tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the previous week, but an increase of 7.72% year-on-year [26][27]. - The comprehensive price index for steel on January 16, 2026, was 3,457.46 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous week [39][40]. Copper Industry - The copper market is facing a lack of driving force for price increases, but expectations for 2026 remain positive due to anticipated demand growth [3][41]. - As of January 16, 2026, LME copper prices were 13,000 USD/ton, with SHFE copper prices at 101,900 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease in LME prices but an increase in SHFE prices [46]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum processing sector is currently in a contraction phase, with a PMI of 42.4% as of December 2025 [48]. - The average price of alumina on January 16, 2026, was 2,666 CNY/ton, down 1.00% from the previous week [49]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical landscape and mixed economic data from the U.S. are influencing gold prices, which are expected to remain supported [52]. - As of January 16, 2026, COMEX gold prices were 4,601.10 USD/oz, reflecting a 1.83% increase from the previous week [53].

Macro and Strategy Research - The performance of corporate credit is better than that of household credit, with a slight year-on-year decrease in RMB loans in December 2025, where corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans significantly outperformed the same period in 2024 [3][5] - The increase in M2 year-on-year indicates a positive trend, with non-bank financial institutions showing better deposit performance compared to the same period in 2024 [4][5] - The financial data for December 2025 highlights the growth in corporate credit, while household credit remains under pressure, necessitating further observation of sustainability [5] Fixed Income Research - Green bonds are defined as securities issued to raise funds specifically for green industries, projects, or economic activities, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.32 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [6][9] - The development of China's green bond market can be divided into three stages: exploratory phase (2015), standardized development phase (2016-2020), and system improvement phase (2021-present), with significant growth in issuance scale and variety [9][10] - Green bonds generally exhibit a stable interest rate advantage, with their issuance rates lower than corresponding non-green bonds, although this advantage has slightly diminished in recent years [10] Fund Research - The first gold ETF exceeding 100 billion yuan has been established, indicating a significant milestone in the market [11] - The public fund market saw a net outflow of 157.33 billion yuan in the ETF sector, with stock-type ETFs experiencing the largest outflow [12][13] - The average performance of equity funds was positive, with a 74.98% positive return ratio, while fixed income funds also showed strong performance [11][12] Industry Research - The focus on cultivating service consumption is emphasized, with sports events and IP+ consumption expected to benefit directly from new policies aimed at enhancing service consumption [14][15] - Recent announcements include measures from the Shanghai government to promote service industry quality and consumption expansion, indicating a shift towards service sector reform [14] - The light industry and textile sectors have shown mixed performance, with the light industry underperforming the CSI 300 index while the textile sector slightly outperformed it [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors is "Neutral" [5][52]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the cultivation of service consumption, with sports events and IP+ consumption expected to benefit directly from new policies aimed at boosting service consumption [4][51]. - Recent government measures, including the "Several Measures to Promote the Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement of the Service Industry" in Shanghai, aim to stimulate service consumption and enhance supply quality [12][51]. - The report highlights the expected performance of key companies, with Jia Mei Packaging forecasting a decline in net profit for 2025 by 43.02%-53.38%, while Wo Le Home is expected to see a growth of 40.78%-56.42% in the same period [41][42]. Industry News - The State Council is focusing on accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, particularly in sectors like transportation, home services, performances, and sports events [4][12]. - The Shanghai government has introduced 28 measures targeting six key industries to enhance service quality and stimulate consumption [12][51]. Important Company Announcements - Jia Mei Packaging anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a profit of 85.44 million to 104.42 million yuan, a decrease of 43.02%-53.38% year-on-year [41]. - Wo Le Home expects a net profit increase for 2025, estimating a profit of 171 million to 190 million yuan, representing a growth of 40.78%-56.42% year-on-year [41]. Market Review - From January 12 to January 16, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.54 percentage points, while the textile apparel sector outperformed it by 0.02 percentage points [2][42]. - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 1.11%, while the textile apparel index decreased by 0.55% during the same period [2][42]. Weekly Strategy - The report suggests continuous attention to sectors benefiting from the new service consumption policies, particularly in sports equipment, athletic apparel, and related fields [4][51].

基 金 研 究 核心观点： ⚫ 市场回顾： 上周统计区间为 2026 年 1 月 12 日至 2026 年 1 月 16 日，权益市场主要指数 涨跌不一，其中，涨幅最大的是科创 50，上涨 2.58%。31 个申万一级行业 中 13 个行业上涨，涨幅前五的行业是计算机、电子、有色金属、传媒和机 械设备；跌幅前五的行业是国防军工、房地产、农林牧渔、煤炭和银行。 ⚫ 公募基金市场概况： 基金周报 首只千亿黄金 ETF 诞生，宽基指数资金大幅流出 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2026 年 1 月 19 日 市场热点方面：1、国内第一只规模超千亿黄金 ETF 诞生；2、港股通 ETF 最新扩容正式生效。 基金表现方面，权益类基金中，偏股型基金涨幅最大，平均上涨 1.35%， 正收益占比 74.98%；固收+型基金平均上涨 0.32%，正收益占比 87.09%； 纯债型基金平均上涨 0.10%，正收益占比 98.67%；养老目标 FOF 平均上涨 0.58%，正收益占比 98.49%。另外，QDII 基金平均上涨 0.97%，正收益占 比 69.31%。 通过对主动权益基金行业仓位的测算， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Green bonds are securities raised for green industries, projects, or economic activities, and have become an important financing tool. As of the end of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale in China reached 5.32 trillion yuan [2]. - The development of China's green bond market can be divided into three stages: the exploration and launch stage (2015), the standardization development stage (2016 - 2020), and the system improvement stage (2021 - present) [2][16]. - By the end of 2025, the annual issuance scale increased from 207.231 billion yuan in 2016 to 1.079283 trillion yuan, and the number of issuances rose from 89 to 834. The stock of green bonds was 2,014, with a market size of 2.464521 trillion yuan. Green bonds are suitable for long - term investment [3][109]. - Green bonds generally have a "green spread" over non - green bonds, which has weakened in the past three years but still supports pricing. They are more suitable as a stable portfolio base rather than a source of significant excess returns [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Green Bond Development 1.1 Green Bond Concept - Green bonds are securities that raise funds for green industries, projects, or economic activities. They are divided into four types according to the "China Green Bond Principles (2022)" and play an important role in global green finance [13]. 1.2 Policy Context - China's green bond market has established a relatively complete system. The development is divided into three stages: - Exploration and launch stage (2015): The People's Bank of China and the National Development and Reform Commission issued relevant documents, marking the official start of the green bond market [16][17]. - Standardization development stage (2016 - 2020): Multiple departments issued a series of policies to improve the regulatory mechanism, project catalog, and evaluation and certification mechanism [16][18]. - System improvement stage (2021 - present): Policies continued to be refined, the standard system was integrated with international standards, and cross - border green financing advanced steadily [16][25]. 2. Green Bond Value 2.1 Value to Issuers - Green bonds generally have a lower issuance interest rate than non - green bonds, showing a "green spread," which has weakened in the past three years. They can also access overseas ESG funds [34]. 2.2 Value to Investors - Green bonds are fixed - income tools. Their credit risk is mainly determined by the issuer's quality and credit enhancement. They are suitable as a stable portfolio base and can meet institutional ESG and sustainable investment goals. Their tradability has also improved [46]. 3. Green Bond Issuance Statistics 3.1 Green Asset - Backed Securities - Their issuance rhythm has different stages. From 2016 - 2018, it was in the start - up phase; 2019 - 2020 saw market expansion; 2021 entered the accelerated development stage; 2022 - 2023 maintained a high - level operation; 2024 - 2025 had a decline in scale. They are mainly short - term and ultra - long - term products, with concentrated underlying assets [48][49]. 3.2 Non - Asset - Backed Green Bonds - The issuance showed phased characteristics. It expanded steadily from 2016 - 2020, jumped significantly in 2021, reached a high in 2022, declined in 2023, and significantly increased in 2025. State - owned enterprises are the main issuers, and bank - to - bank market is the main trading platform. Their issuance interest rate has been declining, and the term is mainly medium - short term [59][61][71]. 4. Green Bond Stock and Transaction Analysis 4.1 Green Bond Stock Analysis - As of the end of 2025, the stock of green bonds was 2,014, with a market size of 2.464521 trillion yuan. Financial bonds accounted for nearly half of the stock, followed by medium - term notes and asset - backed securities. The stock was concentrated in short - and medium - term bonds, a few industries, and regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [83][90][95]. 4.2 Green Bond Transaction Analysis - The secondary - market trading volume of green bonds has been rising with fluctuations, and the turnover rate has shown a trend of "falling from a high level, fluctuating in the central range, and weakening again in recent years." Compared with credit bonds and financial bonds, the turnover rate of green bonds is relatively low, but it has stable trading and periodic surges. The valuation of green bonds shows a clear stratification [100][101][105]. 5. Investment Viewpoint - Similar to the core viewpoints, green bonds have good development prospects, supply - side expansion, and are suitable for long - term investment and portfolio optimization [108][109][110].

Group 1: Credit Performance - Corporate credit outperformed household credit in December 2025, with significant increases in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans compared to the same period in 2024[4] - Household sector continued to deleverage, with a net repayment in short-term loans and only 10 billion yuan in new medium-to-long-term loans, primarily due to poor real estate sales and decreased willingness to consume[4][21] - Overall, the total social financing scale increased by 3.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, reaching 35.6 trillion yuan for the entire year[13] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate improved to 8.5% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 8% in November[13] - Non-bank financial institutions saw better deposit performance compared to 2024, influenced by regulatory changes in interbank deposit rates[5][23] - New household deposits exceeded those of 2024, indicating limited scale of deposit migration[5][24] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Future positive factors include continued support from policy financial tools, proactive government bond financing, and structural interest rate cuts, with expectations for social financing growth to stabilize or slightly increase[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could impact market risk appetite and bond market dynamics[7][30]

晨会纪要（2026/01/19） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.19） 宏观及策略研究 海外降息趋弱，国内定调积极——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 结构化降息落地——利率债周报 行业研究 荣昌生物与艾伯维签署授权许可协议，关注创新药产业链机遇——医药生物 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2026/01/19） 宏观及策略研究 海外降息趋弱，国内定调积极——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，2025 年 12 月非农就业数据低于预期，其中以休闲酒店和教育健康为代表的服务业保持韧性，而 对利率更为敏感的传统周期性 ...