Group 1: Corporate Pension System in China - The development of China's corporate pension system has gone through three stages over more than 20 years, with a scale reaching 3.6 trillion yuan by 2024, nearly half of the basic pension insurance in 2023. However, the participation rate is only 3.4%, which is low compared to OECD countries [3][4] - The U.S. corporate pension system has a long history, with a participation rate of 23.4% by 1970 and a scale of 22.4 trillion USD by 2023, accounting for 53.2% of the pension system. The asset allocation of private DB plans is approximately 6:3:1 for equities, fixed income, and other assets, while DC plans favor equities at a ratio of 8:1:1 [4] - Japan's corporate pension system, established in the 1960s, has a total scale of 92.8 trillion yen by March 2024, accounting for 26.2% of the pension system. The asset allocation is balanced for DB plans and more concentrated in high-yield assets for DC plans [5] - Learning from the U.S. and Japan, China's corporate pension system may optimize participation mechanisms, contribution confirmation, tax models, investment choices, and account management, which could lead to increased long-term capital inflow into the equity market [5] Group 2: A-Share Market Investment Strategy - In the past five trading days (May 16-22), major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% and the ChiNext Index up 0.11%. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.12 trillion yuan, down 127.85 billion yuan from the previous five days [6][7] - Economic growth remained stable in April, with fixed asset investment growing by 4.0% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 5.1%. This stability is attributed to the effectiveness of previous macro policies [7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced plans to improve merger and acquisition mechanisms to support the development of new productive forces, indicating a potential increase in M&A activities in the near future [7] - The market's future opportunities will depend on incremental changes, with a focus on high-quality development and structural layout. A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on both high-dividend banking stocks and thematic investments in new consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Margin Trading and Securities Lending - In the week of May 14-20, major A-share indices mostly declined, with the Shanghai 50 index rising by 0.32% and the Sci-Tech 50 index falling by 1.19%. The total margin trading balance reached 1.80731 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.461 billion yuan from the previous week [9][10] - The sectors with the highest net buying in margin trading included automotive, non-bank financials, and machinery, while the computer, electronics, and telecommunications sectors saw lower net buying [10] - The top five stocks for net buying in margin trading were CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, China Merchants Bank, Tonghua Golden Horse, and GF Securities [11]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first four months of 2025, national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year [2] - Government fund budget revenue was 12,586 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, while expenditure was 26,136 billion yuan, up 17.7% year-on-year [2] Public Finance Income - Public finance income continued to show negative growth, but the decline narrowed compared to the first three months, with tax revenue's year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points to -2.1% [3] - Corporate income tax revenue's year-on-year decline narrowed by 3.7 percentage points to -3.1%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [3] - Non-tax revenue growth rate fell compared to the first three months, but the overall structure of public finance income improved [3] Public Finance Expenditure - Public finance expenditure grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with a notable increase in spending on people's livelihood, which rose by 6.6% [3] - Social security and employment spending increased by 8.5%, while education spending rose by 7.4% [3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth but the decline narrowed, with infrastructure spending now accounting for less than 20% of total public finance expenditure, a new low in recent years [3] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed compared to the first three months, with land transfer revenue's decline improving from -15.9% to -11.4% [4] - Government fund expenditure increased by 17.7% year-on-year, with central government expenditure growing by 75% and local government expenditure increasing by 16.6% [4] - The combination of public finance and government fund expenditure resulted in a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in broad fiscal expenditure [4] Industry Research - In April 2025, forklift sales reached 130,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.03% [6] - The operating rate of road construction equipment remained high, with significant growth in construction activity across 15 provinces [6] - Excavator sales from January to April totaled 83,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, indicating strong domestic market performance [6] Company Announcements - Zoomlion plans to acquire equity in Beijing Leasing through public bidding [6] - Xinjie Electric plans to establish an industrial investment partnership [6] Market Performance - From May 14 to May 20, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.05%, while the machinery equipment sector fell by 0.86%, underperforming the index by 0.91 percentage points [6] - As of May 20, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio for the machinery equipment sector was 26.91 times, with a valuation premium of 125.92% over the CSI 300 [6] Future Outlook - The demand for construction machinery is expected to improve due to ongoing construction projects and favorable weather conditions [6] - The production roadmap for Tesla's humanoid robots is becoming clearer, which may drive rapid development in the industry [7] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with recommendations to increase holdings in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and others [6][7]

晨会纪要（2025/05/21） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.21） 宏观及策略研究 投资相对消费更具挑战——2025 年 4 月经济数据点评 固定收益研究 发行规模下降，净融资额继续为负——信用债周报 行业研究 宏观利好逐渐消化，关注抢出口行为影响——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/05/21） 宏观及策略研究 投资相对消费更具挑战——2025 年 4 月经济数据点评 4 月全国规上工业增加值同比和环比增速均放缓。分行业来看，受关税冲击，近八成行业生产增速均有不同 程度的放缓，工业企业出口交货值同比增速大幅下降 6.8 个百分点至 0.9%，其中受影响较大的纺织业生产 增速下降 2.8 个百分点至 2.9%；高新技术制造业和设备制造业生产在工业转型升级及新动能不断壮大下仍 保持较高增速。服务业生产指数同比增长 6.0%，较 3 月下降 0.3 个百分点， ...

晨会纪要（2025/05/20） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.20） 基金研究 股票型 ETF 净流出规模增加，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基金周报 行业研究 4 月家具社零同比+26.9%，关注出口链下游补单——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业 周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 65032579/80153/20250520 09:15 晨会纪要（2025/05/20） 基金研究 股票型 ETF 净流出规模增加，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基金周报 宋旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150123060017） 1、上周市场回顾 上周，市场主要指数估值多数上涨。从市盈率与市净率指标来看，沪深 300、上证 50 涨幅均居前。31 个申 万一级行业中 22 个行业上涨，涨幅前 5 的行业为美容护理、非银金融、汽车、交通运输和化工。跌 ...

晨会纪要（2025/05/19） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.19） 宏观及策略研究 关税政策初步缓和，经济不确定性仍在——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 贸易关系阶段性缓和，利率震荡上行――利率债周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/05/19） 宏观及策略研究 关税政策初步缓和，经济不确定性仍在——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，4 月整体和核心 CPI 环比增速均低于预期，配合同样走低的 PPI 数据，证明关税尚未对通胀产生 明显的推升作用。而反观 4 月零售数据则大幅放缓，或是家庭部门在关税政策实施 ...

晨会纪要（2025/05/16） 宏观及策略研究 外部环境显著改善，市场机会关注择时——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/05/16） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.16） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（5 月 9 日-5 月 15 日），重要指数多数收涨；其中，上证综指收涨 0.86%，创业板指收涨 0.68%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收涨 1.41%，中证 500 收跌 1.01%。成交量方面有所缩量，两市统计区间内成交 6.26 万亿元，日均成交额达到 1.25 万亿元，较前三个交易日的日均成交额减少 1137.47 亿元。行业方面，申万一 级行业涨多跌少，其中，美容护理、银行、非银金融行业涨幅居前，而计算机、电子、国防军工行业跌幅 居前。 2、数据方面 2025 年 4 月社融同比多增超 1.2 万亿元，其中政府债券融资是主要支撑项，与 ...

编辑人 晨会纪要（2025/05/15） 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.15） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 4 月挖掘机销量为 2.21 万台，同比增长 17.6%——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/05/15） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（5 月 7 日-5 月 13 日）A 股市场主要指数多数上涨，其中创业板指涨幅最大，上涨了 3.82 %；科创 50 跌幅最大，下跌了 1.64%。此外，上证综指上涨 1.77%，深证成指上涨 2.04%，沪深 300 上涨 2.30%，上证 50 上涨 2.28%，中证 500 上涨 0.72%。 5 月 13 日，沪深两市两融余额为 18,048.49 ...

022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2025/05/14） 编辑人 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.14） 固定收益研究 发行利率多数上行，收益率全部下行——信用债周报 行业研究 贵金属表现亮眼，中重稀土价格上涨——金属行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一 季报综述 贸易会谈传利好，宏观情绪逐渐缓和——金属行业周报 中美关税风险阶段性缓和，维持家居业绩改善预期——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 固定收益研究 发行利率多数上行，收益率全部下行——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（5 月 5 日至 5 月 11 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为 0 BP 至 8 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，其中，企业债零发行，其余品种发行金额增加；信用债净融资额环比增加， 企业债净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债、短期融资券净融资额为负，公司债、 ...

行 行业业绩综述 贵金属表现亮眼，中重稀土价格上涨 ——金属行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报综述 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 05 月 13 日 钢铁 有色金属 投资要点： 证券分析师 张珂 zhangke@bhzq.com 整体看：2024 年钢铁行业盈利压力较大，行业归母净利同比下跌 131.74%， 行业整体处于亏损状态；2025 年 Q1 行业归母净利同比增长 549.88%，行业 业绩大幅好转。 分子板块：（1）冶钢原料：板块 24 年归母净利同比下降 38.56%，25 年 Q1 同比下降 29.03%，板块业绩未见明显好转；价格方面，24 年矿价整体震荡 下行，25 年 Q1 受缩减粗钢产量预期等因素影响价格依旧走弱。（2）普钢： 板块 24 年整体业绩亏损，而在 25 年 Q1 实现盈利，业绩好转；价格方面， 24 年钢价整体波动下行，25 年 Q1 受需求和美国关税问题影响依旧偏弱。 （3）特钢：24 年业绩在子板块中表现最好，25 年 Q1 归母净利同比增长 10.44%；价格方面，24 年不锈钢价格宽幅震荡，25 年 Q1 价格 ...

证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 重点品种推荐 | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 中金黄金 | 增持 | | 山东黄金 | 增持 | | 紫金矿业 | 增持 | | 中国铝业 | 增持 | 行 行业周报 贸易会谈传利好，宏观情绪逐渐缓和 ——金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 05 月 13 日 钢铁 有色金属 投资要点： 铜：秘鲁安塔米纳铜矿停产，短期铜矿供应预期更加紧张，同时重要贸易谈判 传递利好，宏观情绪缓和，短期铜价有支撑，需关注后续关税政策走向和国内 刺激政策效果。 铝：中美贸易关系缓和，对铝价有支撑，但调整后的关税对铝出口需求仍有压 制；5 月铝下游需求预期走弱，同时电解铝成本走低，铝价缺乏上行动力，多 空交织下预计短期铝价震荡运行，关注关税政策走向和国内刺激政策效果。 黄金：贸易会谈乐观和地缘局势缓和削弱黄金的避险吸引力，短期金价或承 压。 锂：行业需求表现一般，盐湖生产旺季到来，部分冶炼厂虽有检修计划，但供 给过剩格局难改，碳酸锂缺乏上升动力，预计短期价格将继续走弱。 近 ...