Group 1: US Economic Indicators - October non-farm payroll data showed a significant reduction in government employment, resulting in negative growth[1] - November data indicated minimal job growth, with a potential overestimation of 60,000 jobs per month as suggested by Powell[1] - Unemployment rate increased slightly in November, reaching the upper level of the Fed's forecast, amid rising labor participation[1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - November inflation data fell below expectations, but its accuracy is questioned due to data collection issues[1] - Despite calls for significant rate cuts from the White House, expectations for a rate cut in January appear hesitant[1] - The European Central Bank maintained its policy rate, adjusting economic growth forecasts for 2026 while indicating slow inflation decline due to service sector stickiness[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - November's economic fundamentals showed a preference for new productive investments and service consumption, with a divergence between stable supply and weak demand[3] - Weak credit data indicated a stagnant real estate cycle and reduced consumer loans due to subsidy cuts[3] - Fiscal policy is expected to slightly strengthen in December, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs[3] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Downstream real estate transactions showed a slight recovery, while agricultural wholesale prices increased[3] - Midstream steel and cement prices have rebounded, while upstream coal and coke prices are rising, with mixed trends in non-ferrous metal prices[3]

Macro and Strategy Research - The A-share market is experiencing a confirmed bottom, with expectations for a cross-year rally to unfold [2] - In the past five trading days (December 12-18), major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.08% and the ChiNext Index falling by 1.79% [2] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.81 trillion yuan, down by 491.08 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Economic data for November shows a 2.6% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment, indicating weakening investment demand [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized expanding domestic demand as a top priority for the coming year, with a focus on service consumption in areas like culture, tourism, and elderly care [3] Strategy Insights - The A-share market is expected to gradually recover from low levels as the cross-year and spring market approaches [4] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing capital expansion in AI and domestic substitution of computing power [4] - The power equipment and non-ferrous metals industries are highlighted as having investment potential due to high global demand for energy storage and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [4] - The banking sector is also noted for potential allocation opportunities, supported by a low-interest-rate environment and a return to performance benchmarks by public funds [4] Industry Research - Xiaomi has launched an open-source MoE model and a web-based AI chat service, indicating a deepening layout in AI applications [5][7] - The domestic first space computing joint laboratory is set to be established, showcasing advancements in AI technology [5] - The computer industry saw a decline, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index dropping by 0.26% and the computer sector down by 2.01% from December 11 to December 17 [5] - The report suggests that the acceleration of large model product iterations by leading domestic and international firms will drive technological innovation and application [6]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - National general public budget revenue for January-November 2025 reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[2] - National general public budget expenditure totaled 248,538 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%[2] - Government fund budget revenue was 40,274 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.9%[2] - Government fund budget expenditure increased to 92,124 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7%[2] Public Finance Insights - The growth rate of public finance expenditure decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to January-October 2025, necessitating a December growth rate of over 20% to meet annual targets[3] - Expenditure focus areas included livelihood, technology, and green initiatives, with technology spending growth reaching 7.9%[3] - Social security and employment spending grew by 8.1%, indicating strong support for livelihoods[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline of 7.7%, with only environmental spending showing positive growth[3] Government Fund Challenges - The year-on-year decline in government fund revenue was exacerbated by a 2.1 percentage point increase in the decline rate, primarily due to land market issues[4] - Government fund expenditure growth slowed to 13.7%, influenced by high base effects from 2024's special bond issuance[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total expenditure, indicating a proactive fiscal approach for 2026[8] - Key focus areas for future spending include optimizing expenditure structure and addressing local government financial pressures[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry has been downgraded from "Positive" to "Neutral," while maintaining a "Buy" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [2][29] Core Insights - Xiaomi has released an open-source MoE model and launched a web-based AI chat service, which is expected to deepen its AI application layout [13] - The AI application sector is experiencing high prosperity, with major domestic companies accelerating their C-end application layouts [27] - The recent release of OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model is aimed at unlocking more economic value and enhancing capabilities in various tasks [14] Industry News - Xiaomi's new open-source MoE model, Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Flash, features 309 billion parameters and is designed for AI agents, achieving significant efficiency improvements [13] - The first domestic space computing joint laboratory is set to be established, focusing on autonomous and controllable space computing chip development [13] - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model is now available for developers and professional users, with different versions tailored for various tasks [14] Market Review - From December 11 to December 17, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry Index dropped by 2.01%, with all sub-sectors experiencing declines [20][21] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry is 201.44 times, with a valuation premium of 1416.92% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [21] Weekly Strategy - The ongoing iteration and upgrade of large model products by leading domestic and international companies are expected to accelerate technological innovation and application landing [27] - Companies like Google are expanding their computing power to meet the rising demand for AI services, while domestic chip companies are leveraging financing channels to enhance their product development [27]

Market Review - In the recent five trading days (December 12 to December 18), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.79% [5] - The trading volume decreased, with a total of 9.06 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, down by 491.08 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [9][22] Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to November, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a marginal decline of 0.9 percentage points [26] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 1.1% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, reflecting a slowdown in investment sentiment [26] - Real estate investment dropped by 15.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [26] Policy Focus - The central government's economic work meeting emphasized that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for 2025, with a focus on service consumption in areas such as cultural tourism, elderly care, and childcare [32] - The government plans to optimize fiscal spending by increasing investment in people's livelihoods and enhancing monetary policy flexibility to support price recovery [32] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with a potential rebound as the market approaches the year-end and spring rally periods [33] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. TMT and robotics sectors due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic computing power substitution [34] 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors driven by high global energy storage demand [34] 3. Social services and resource sectors as policy adjustments focus on structural changes and "anti-involution" measures [34] Industry Performance - Among the major sectors, non-bank financials, transportation, and retail sectors showed the highest gains, while the real estate, power equipment, and comprehensive sectors experienced the largest declines [22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [7] Core Insights - The company is a global leader in artificial turf, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of the year, growing by 9.52% and 30.89% year-on-year, respectively [1][28] - The company has a strong presence in the leisure turf segment, which accounted for over 70% of revenue in the first half of the year, with products sold in over 140 countries and overseas revenue exceeding 95% [1][33] - The global artificial turf market is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 9.28% in industry size and 11.21% in sales area from 2015 to 2023, reaching €4.141 billion by 2027, a 28.64% increase from 2023 [3][53] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a global leader in the artificial turf industry since its founding in 2004, becoming a preferred supplier for international organizations such as FIFA and World Rugby [19][20] - The company has a concentrated family ownership structure, with the chairman holding 54.54% of shares directly and a total of 89.34% held by family members and related parties [25][19] Market Development - The global artificial turf market is expected to exceed €4 billion by 2027, with significant contributions from Chinese companies, which account for 37% of global production [53][56] - The EMEA region is the largest market for artificial turf, with a demand of 1.76 million square meters in 2023, representing 44.77% of global demand [62][66] Competitive Advantages - The company has a robust R&D system, with R&D expenses of ¥71.82 million in the first three quarters of 2025, a 10.58% increase year-on-year, significantly higher than peers [5][28] - The company has established long-term partnerships with major wholesalers and home improvement chains, enhancing its market position [5][28] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve EPS of ¥1.64, ¥1.89, and ¥2.20 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a PE ratio of 22.93 for 2025, indicating a premium valuation due to its unique market position [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price based on a projected PE of 86.90 times for 2025 [8]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in self-lubricating bearings, with a strong brand reputation and extensive application across various industries including automotive, engineering machinery, and robotics [2][21]. - The global bearing market is expected to grow from approximately $145.19 billion in 2025 to $329.4 billion by 2034, with self-lubricating bearings showing significant advantages in specific applications [5][33]. - The automotive sector is projected to maintain growth, with global sales expected to reach 95.31 million units in 2024, reflecting a 2.65% year-on-year increase, which will drive demand for self-lubricating bearings [6][42]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with significant sales growth expected, further increasing the demand for self-lubricating bearings [6][55]. - The company is actively developing its robotics business, focusing on self-lubricating bearings for joints and other components, with potential for significant revenue growth in the future [7][66]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in self-lubricating bearings and has a high brand recognition, being a key player in the industry since its establishment in 1995 and listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2017 [21][22]. - The product range includes self-lubricating bearings and high-performance polymers, with applications in various sectors such as automotive, engineering machinery, and renewable energy [22][24]. Industry Background - The bearing industry is categorized into sliding and rolling bearings, with self-lubricating bearings gaining traction due to their advantages in maintenance and operational costs [32][35]. - The automotive market is expected to see an increase in the number of self-lubricating bearings used per vehicle, driven by trends towards lightweight and reliable components [42][45]. - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a rebound, with increased sales of excavators and loaders, which will enhance the demand for self-lubricating bearings [51][55]. - The wind power sector is also growing, with a shift towards self-lubricating bearings in large wind turbines, indicating a trend of "sliding replacing rolling" [59][63]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 1.29 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.71 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 271 million, 308 million, and 359 million yuan in the same years [8][12].

晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年工业机器人产量有望突破 70 万台——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（12 月 10 日-12 月 16 日）A 股市场主要指数全部震荡调整，其中创业板指跌幅最大，下跌了 4.29%； 上证 50 跌幅最小，下跌了 1.44%。此外，上证综指下跌 2.17%，深证成指下跌 2.73%，科创 50 下跌 3.99%， 沪深 300 下跌 2.19%，中证 500 下跌 1.69%。 12 月 16 日，沪深两市两融余额为 24, ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index [35] Core Views - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue growing due to favorable domestic construction activity and the implementation of significant investment projects as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][27] - In November, the production of industrial robots reached approximately 70,200 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.60%, with expectations for total production to exceed 700,000 units in 2025 [2][27] - The report maintains "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [2][27] Industry News - In November, sales of various types of forklifts reached 119,749 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [10] - The domestic sales of forklifts for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 843,005 units, reflecting a growth of 14.3% [10] - Beijing Zhuoyue Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. successfully completed a strategic financing round of 200 million yuan [11] - Hitachi Construction Machinery will change its name to LANDCROS, pending shareholder approval [11] Industry Data - As of December 12, 2025, the comprehensive steel price index (CSPI) was recorded at 91.76 [12] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices were reported at $56.82 and $60.56 per barrel, respectively, as of December 16, 2025 [13] Company Announcements - Suzhou Sileck Precision Equipment Co., Ltd. announced a partnership with investment institutions to enhance project reserves and overall competitiveness [17] - Wuxi Chemical Equipment Co., Ltd. plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in South Korea with an investment of up to $100,000 [18] Market Review - From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.19%, while the machinery equipment sector declined by 2.95%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.76 percentage points [19] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE, TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 43.94 times, with a valuation premium of 218.89% relative to the CSI 300 [20]