Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - From March 2, 2026, to March 6, 2026, all major equity market indices declined, with the STAR 50 index experiencing the largest drop of 4.95%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 7 industries rose, with the top five gainers being petroleum & petrochemicals, coal, utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery, and banking; the top five losers were media, non-ferrous metals, computer, electronics, and building materials [1][12]. - The total scale of public - offering funds reached a new record, and the number of private equity institutions with assets under management exceeding 10 billion yuan reached 125. In the fund performance, quantitative funds had the smallest decline, with an average drop of 2.29% and a positive - return ratio of 4.16%; fixed - income + funds dropped by 0.34% on average, with a positive - return ratio of 30.15%; pure - bond funds rose by 0.11% on average, with a positive - return ratio of 99.46%; pension target FOFs dropped by 1.86% on average, with a positive - return ratio of 0.00%; QDII funds dropped by 2.79% on average, with a positive - return ratio of 7.14% [2][30]. - Last week, the overall ETF market had a net capital inflow of 31.867 billion yuan. Commodity - type ETFs had a relatively large net inflow of 13.181 billion yuan. The daily average trading volume of the overall ETF market reached 576.875 billion yuan, the daily average trading volume was 229.129 billion shares, and the daily average turnover rate was 9.50%. Sectors such as oil and gas, power grid equipment, and Hang Seng Technology showed net capital inflows, while broad - based indices such as CSI Small - Cap 500, CSI 300, CSI 1000, CSI A500, and ChiNext Index were the main out - flowing varieties, with the net capital outflow of the CSI Small - Cap 500 index approaching 10 billion yuan [3][42][45]. - Last week, 45 new funds were issued, an increase of 9 compared with the previous period; 12 new funds were established, an increase of 7 compared with the previous period. New funds raised a total of 13.464 billion yuan, an increase of 12.013 billion yuan compared with the previous period [4][49][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Situation - Equity market: All major equity market indices declined, with the STAR 50 index dropping by 4.95%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 7 industries rose, and the top five gainers and losers were as mentioned above. - Bond market: The ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index rose by 0.06%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond, Financial Bond, and Credit Bond Total Full - Price Indices rose between 0.06% and 0.10%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped by 2.07%. - Commodity market: The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 6.43% [12]. 1.2欧美及亚太市场情况 All major indices in the European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets declined last week. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 index dropped by 1.55%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 2.95%, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 1.24%. In the European market, the French CAC40 dropped by 6.84%, and the German DAX dropped by 6.70%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 3.28%, and the Nikkei 225 dropped by 5.49% [19]. 1.3 Market Valuation Situation - The valuation quantiles of most major market indices declined last week. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio, the CSI 300 had the highest increase of 2.1 pct.; in terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - book ratio, the CSI 300 also had the highest increase of 1.3 pct. - Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio in the Shenwan primary index were real estate, comprehensive, electronics, chemical, and building materials. The real estate industry's price - to - earnings ratio quantile remained high, and the comprehensive industry's reached 94.2%. The bottom five industries with low historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratio were non - bank finance, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery, beauty care, and household appliances, with the non - bank finance industry's valuation approaching its historical low since 2013 [22]. 2. Active - Type Public - Offering Fund Situation Market Hotspots - The total scale of public - offering funds reached a new record. As of the end of January 2026, there were 165 public - offering fund management institutions in China, and the total net asset value of public - offering funds under management was 37.77 trillion yuan. The industry had achieved "ten consecutive increases" in scale [29]. - The number of private equity institutions with assets under management exceeding 10 billion yuan reached 125. As of the end of February 2026, the average time for these institutions to reach the 10 - billion - yuan threshold from establishment was 7.81 years [30]. Fund Performance The performance of different types of funds is as described in the core views section, including the average returns and positive - return ratios of quantitative funds, fixed - income + funds, pure - bond funds, pension target FOFs, and QDII funds. The top - performing funds in different categories last week and this year are also provided [2][30][31]. Industry Positions Last week, the top industries with the highest position - increasing ratios in active equity funds were petroleum & petrochemicals, transportation, and coal; the top industries with the highest position - reducing ratios were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and basic chemicals. The overall position of active equity funds on March 6, 2026, was 80.39%, an increase of 3.34 pct. compared with the previous period [2][37][38]. 3. ETF Fund Situation - The overall ETF market had a net capital inflow of 31.867 billion yuan last week. Commodity - type ETFs had a net inflow of 13.181 billion yuan. The daily average trading volume was 576.875 billion yuan, the daily average trading volume was 229.129 billion shares, and the daily average turnover rate was 9.50%. - In terms of individual securities, sectors such as oil and gas, power grid equipment, and Hang Seng Technology showed net capital inflows, while broad - based indices such as CSI Small - Cap 500, CSI 300, CSI 1000, CSI A500, and ChiNext Index were the main out - flowing varieties [3][42][45]. 4. Fund Issuance Situation Statistics - Last week, 45 new funds were issued, an increase of 9 compared with the previous period, including 12 active equity - biased funds and 15 passive index funds. The issuance share of active equity funds was still at a historical low but showed an obvious upward trend this year. - 12 new funds were established, an increase of 7 compared with the previous period. New funds raised a total of 13.464 billion yuan, an increase of 12.013 billion yuan compared with the previous period. The Southern Yixiang Steady Income Bond A managed by Sun Lumin and Yang Xu had the largest raising scale of about 4.988 billion yuan [4][49][54].

Macro and Strategy Research - The US ISM manufacturing PMI slightly declined in February but remains in the expansion range, with new orders and output indices still robust. However, the price index jumped, indicating inflationary pressures [2][3] - The ADP report shows that private sector job creation in the US reached a new high since the end of last year, supporting the view of a stable labor market despite job growth being limited to a few sectors [2] - In Europe, inflation data in February was driven by rising service prices, with expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain its policy rates unchanged throughout the year [3] Fixed Income Research - In February, the central bank's liquidity net injection exceeded 800 billion yuan, with a significant amount of reverse repos conducted. The money market saw a slight increase in prices before the Spring Festival, but the fluctuations were lower than in previous years [5][6] - The issuance of interest rate bonds in February totaled 2.5 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease year-on-year, with net financing of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan [6][7] - The bond market is expected to remain in a strong oscillation pattern, with inflation and policy changes being key factors that could influence market dynamics [9] Industry Research - The 2026 government work report highlights the brain-computer interface as a new pillar industry, indicating a strategic focus on emerging sectors such as biomedicine [10][12] - Notable industry developments include the approval of new drugs by companies like China Biologic Products and Innovent Biologics, reflecting ongoing innovation in the pharmaceutical sector [11] - The SW biomedicine sector's valuation remains high, with a TTM P/E ratio of 48.07, indicating significant investor interest despite recent market declines [11][12]

Market Review - In February 2026, the central bank's liquidity net injection exceeded 800 billion yuan, with a significant increase in reverse repos [6][8] - The issuance of interest rate bonds in February was 2.5 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous year, with government bonds showing a slight increase [8][9] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1.78%, indicating a strong oscillation pattern in the bond market [16][38] Fundamental Outlook - High-frequency data suggests that exports are expected to remain strong in January-February, while inflation may continue to rise [21][29] - The manufacturing PMI data in February showed a decline, primarily due to the Spring Festival, but retail sales during the holiday increased by 13.7% compared to the previous year [26][29] - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with a significant drop in transaction volumes in major cities [24][29] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with a focus on ensuring necessary expenditure and promoting domestic demand as a primary task [30][32] - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing," with a focus on fiscal and monetary coordination and the use of structural tools [36][37] - The government plans to reduce the net financing scale of government bonds in March, indicating manageable supply pressure [30][32] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to face pressure from export and inflation data, but the government bond supply is not a major concern [38] - The market is likely to remain in a range-bound oscillation pattern, with opportunities in short-term bonds and long-term bonds [39]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - In February, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly declined but remained in the expansion zone, with new orders and output indices still robust, while the price index surged, indicating inflationary pressures[1] - The ADP data showed that the US private sector added the highest number of jobs since the end of last year, supporting the view of a stable labor market despite growth being concentrated in a few sectors[1] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut have been pushed to July, with reduced expectations for a second cut within the year due to rising inflation expectations[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Environment - In February, China's PMI experienced a seasonal decline due to the Spring Festival, but the drop was less than expected, indicating cautious business operations[2] - The 2026 Government Work Report emphasizes a stable yet progressive approach, focusing on effective allocation of fiscal resources and structural monetary policy support to boost domestic demand and innovation[2] - High-frequency data shows a slight increase in real estate transactions post-holiday, while agricultural wholesale prices have decreased, indicating mixed signals in the market[2] Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Upstream prices for coking coal and coke have risen, while prices for non-ferrous metals and gold have generally declined, with crude oil prices significantly increasing[2] - Risks include geopolitical uncertainties that may disrupt market risk appetite and unexpected economic or policy changes during China's transition phase, which could lead to policy adjustments[2]

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, reflecting a pragmatic adjustment in response to market expectations, with nearly 60% of provinces lowering their GDP growth targets [2] - Fiscal policy maintains a deficit rate target of around 4%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a commitment to sustaining expenditure levels while optimizing the use of fiscal funds [3] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on the reasonable recovery of prices, aiming for a CPI increase of 2% [4] - Expanding domestic demand remains a top priority, with policy adjustments focusing on sustainable growth and high-quality development, including a slight increase in central budget investment to 755 billion [5] - The emphasis on cultivating new driving forces in various fields highlights the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation, with significant support for key core technology enterprises [6][7] - The report indicates a deepening of "anti-involution" governance, with a focus on antitrust and fair competition, alongside reforms in the capital market to enhance the investment and financing ecosystem [8] Industry Research - The Tianjin biopharmaceutical industry is positioned as a key part of the "1+3+4" modern industrial system, with a reported output value exceeding 90 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [13] - The industry benefits from strong policy support and a rich innovation resource base, including multiple laboratories and specialized universities, fostering advancements in synthetic biology and gene therapy [14] - Traditional sectors like chemical drugs and modern Chinese medicine are consolidating their advantages, while emerging sectors such as biomanufacturing and nucleic acid drugs are rapidly developing [15] - The biopharmaceutical industry is expected to reach a production value of over 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth in medical device production [16] Computer Industry Research - The report highlights that China's AI models surpassed those of the US in global usage in February 2026, indicating a strong competitive position in the AI sector [17] - The software industry in China reported a business revenue of 15.48 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, showcasing robust industry performance [18] - The investment strategy emphasizes the sustained high demand for AI computing power, with major cloud computing firms expected to maintain rapid capital expenditure growth [19]

A 股投资策略报告 +-[Table_MainInfo] 经济增长侧重"质"，扩内需为首要任务 | | | ――政府工作报告点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | SAC NO： S1150514080001 2026 年 3 月 5 日 | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] | | 宋亦威 | | 1、打牢后期发展基础，经济增长目标设定在 4.5%-5%。此次，两会公布的 2026 | | 022-23861608 | | 年经济增长目标较 2025 年有所调降，这一务实安排符合市场预期。在地方两 | | songyw@bhzq.com | | 会阶段，已有近六成的省市下调了 2026 年的 GDP 增长目标，这一基本面预期 | | [Table_Author] 严佩佩 | | 的变化，已在前期被市场消化。对于上述调整，《政府工作报告》（以下简称 | | 022-23839070 | | "《报告》"）中明确指出是"为调结构、防风险、促改革留出空间"，显示管 | | SAC No:S1150520110001 | ...

Key Insights - The report highlights that domestic AI models are leading globally, with significant growth in AI computing power and applications [5][15][46] - The overall rating for the computer industry is maintained at "neutral," with a recommendation to "increase holdings" in Hongsoft Technology [6][47] Industry News - OpenRouter reported that Chinese AI models surpassed U.S. models in global token usage for the first time in February 2026, with a total of 4.12 trillion tokens compared to 2.94 trillion tokens from the U.S. [15][16] - The AI model MiniMax M2.5 achieved the highest token usage in February, followed by Kimi K2.5 [16] - OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent project, has gained significant popularity, surpassing Linux in GitHub stars, indicating a shift towards AI agents in the industry [16][18] Industry Data - In January 2026, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the computer industry increased by 1.0% month-on-month and 0.3% year-on-year [3][19] - In 2025, China's software industry generated a total revenue of 154,831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with total profits reaching 18,848 billion yuan, up 7.3% [3][25] - The software product revenue in 2025 was 32,361 billion yuan, growing by 10.4% year-on-year [30] Company Announcements - Kingsoft Office reported a revenue of 5.929 billion yuan for 2025, a 15.78% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.843 billion yuan, up 12.03% [36] - Zhuoyi Information achieved a revenue of 338 million yuan in 2025, a 4.42% increase, with a net profit of 82 million yuan, up 150.05% [37] - Pinming Technology reported a revenue of 437 million yuan, a decrease of 2.23%, but a net profit increase of 50.23% [39] Market Review - From February 1 to February 28, the Shenwan Computer Industry Index rose by 1.56%, with IT services leading the sub-sectors at 5.42% [4][40] - As of February 28, 2026, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry was 222.32, with a premium of 1541.97% over the CSI 300 [42][43] Monthly Strategy - The report emphasizes that major overseas cloud computing companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are expected to maintain high capital expenditures in 2026, indicating strong demand for AI computing power [5][46] - The rapid development of AI applications and models is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain [46][47]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance[1][2][3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Situation - The CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in January, with expectations for a marginal rise in CPI growth due to sufficient supply and seasonal demand from the Spring Festival [8][10] - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January but showed a narrowing decline, supported by improvements in supply-demand structures in key sectors and rising international metal prices [8][10] - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in February, indicating a contraction in production and new orders, primarily due to seasonal effects from the Spring Festival [10][12] Group 2: Liquidity Environment - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in March due to rising commodity prices from geopolitical tensions, delaying further easing measures [19][20] - Domestic liquidity remains ample, with the central bank using reverse repos and MLF to support market liquidity, although the probability of significant rate cuts is low in the short term [18][21] - February saw a decrease in public fund inflows due to fewer trading days during the Spring Festival, impacting the issuance and growth of equity funds [31][32] Group 3: Market Strategy - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with limited potential for significant upward movement due to high valuation levels and external risks [48][54] - Post two sessions, the market is expected to shift focus from themes to policy opportunities, with potential sectoral opportunities arising from policy changes [54][55] - Large-cap sectors may benefit from defensive strategies and policy-driven expectations, while small-cap sectors may remain subdued in the short term [55][56] Group 4: Industry Allocation - The resource sector is expected to present investment opportunities due to geopolitical tensions and the importance of resource security, with a focus on oil, gas, and high-dividend stocks [61][63] - The AI sector is anticipated to see growth driven by policy support and capital expenditure from domestic cloud providers, with potential investment opportunities in computing power, robotics, and power grid equipment [70][71] - The upcoming policy details from the two sessions are expected to catalyze growth in various sectors, particularly in technology and infrastructure [68][71]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the machinery equipment industry, emphasizing the potential for growth in engineering machinery and robotics sectors [8][74] - Key companies recommended for investment include Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) with a rating of "increase" [4][74] Industry Overview - The machinery equipment sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1.87% increase compared to a 1.07% decline in the index from February 1 to March 3, 2026, marking a 2.94 percentage point outperformance [7][63] - As of March 3, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE, TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 51.21, representing a 257.70% premium over the CSI 300 [7][71] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, driven by the rollout of key projects and favorable policies for large-scale equipment upgrades [8][74] - In January 2026, excavator sales reached 18,708 units, a 49.50% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales up 61.40% [27][74] Robotics - The participation of humanoid robots in the 2026 Spring Festival Gala has positively impacted brand recognition and commercialization, potentially accelerating industry development [8][74] - The release of the "Humanoid Robot and Embodied Intelligence Standard System (2026 Edition)" marks a significant step towards standardized development in the humanoid robotics industry [15][74] Market Performance - Notable stock performances include New Jin Power (77.29%), Jepter (69.12%), and Taijia Shares (59.46%), while companies like Dongfang Zhizao and Deen Precision Engineering saw significant declines [68][70] - The machinery equipment sector ranked 12th among all primary industries in terms of performance during the reporting period [63][65] Investment Strategy - The report suggests continued focus on overseas market expansion for domestic engineering machinery leaders, highlighting their competitive advantages in technology and cost-effectiveness [8][74] - The report encourages investment in the robotics sector, particularly in light of the new standards that will guide the industry's future [8][74]