晨会纪要（2025/12/05） 编辑人 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/05） 宏观及策略研究 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.05） 宏观及策略研究 国内外重要会议临近，市场进入等待阶段——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 国内外重要会议临近，市场进入等待阶段——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日），重要指数多数收涨；其中，上证综指微幅收涨 0.01%，创业板指收 涨 1.19%；风格层面，沪深 300 收涨 0.69%，中证 500 收涨 0.89%。成交量方面有所缩量，两市统计区间内 成交 8.27 万亿元，日均成交额降至 1. ...

Market Review - In the past five trading days (November 28 to December 4), major indices mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.01% and the ChiNext Index up by 1.19%. The CSI 300 rose by 0.69% and the CSI 500 increased by 0.89% [3][9][23]. Policy Insights - On December 3, the Deputy Director of the Central Financial Office emphasized the necessity of accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse to promote high-quality development. Key areas include improving the central bank system, enhancing capital market stability, and optimizing financial institutions and infrastructure [28]. Investment Strategy - The A-share market is entering a phase of oscillation and waiting. The performance of the market will depend on the catalysts from various sectors during this earnings vacuum period. With important meetings approaching, the market is anticipating incremental policy changes, which could lead to a rebound if they exceed expectations. Investors are advised to remain patient and focus on policy and technology themes for future positioning [29]. Sector Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in several sectors: 1. TMT sector and robotics, driven by the expansion of AI capital from domestic and international cloud vendors and the acceleration of domestic computing power replacement [29]. 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals, benefiting from high global demand for energy storage and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [29]. 3. Social services and resource products, which may present policy-driven opportunities amid structural adjustments and "anti-involution" initiatives [29]. 4. The banking sector is also highlighted as a potential area for allocation due to the low interest rate environment and the return of public fund holdings to performance benchmarks [29].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The computer industry index increased by 18.54% from January 1, 2025, to November 28, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.50 percentage points [3][17] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the computer industry generated revenue of 935.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.14%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.14 billion yuan, up 31.95% year-on-year [3][24] - The third quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 324.49 billion yuan, a 4.75% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing by 23.30% to 10.26 billion yuan [3][24] Group 2: AI Computing Power - AI computing power demand is driving growth in the global data center market, which is expected to reach 652.01 billion dollars by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 8.53% from 2018 [35] - China's data center market is projected to grow from 68.01 billion yuan in 2018 to 261.33 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 25.15% [35] - The introduction of supernode technology is expected to break through computing power bottlenecks, enhancing efficiency and scalability in AI applications [62][66] Group 3: AI Models - Global large model iterations are accelerating, with domestic manufacturers focusing on open-source models to narrow the gap with overseas closed-source models [69] - Domestic open-source models are gaining traction, with eight out of the top ten in the global open-source model intelligence index being Chinese [73][76] - The performance gap between domestic open-source models and international top-tier closed-source models is narrowing, with domestic models offering better cost-performance ratios [76] Group 4: AI Applications - AI applications are transitioning towards intelligent agents, with major internet companies accelerating the commercialization of C-end applications [82] - Alibaba's Qwen App, based on open-source models, aims to become a comprehensive AI life portal, achieving over 10 million downloads shortly after launch [83] - The development of AI agents is expected to enhance user engagement and create a complete AI business ecosystem [83] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in AI applications and self-control developments for 2026, with a positive outlook on the AI computing power sector [84][85] - Continuous growth in capital expenditure from major cloud computing firms supports the high prosperity of the AI computing power industry [84] - The competition in the global large model field is intensifying, which is likely to drive technological innovation and accelerate application deployment [84]

Industry Overview - The report highlights the continuous iteration of domestic open-source large models, reshaping the AI competitive landscape, with DeepSeek V3.2 achieving inference capabilities comparable to GPT-5 [1][20][21] - The establishment of a "Space Data Center" in Beijing, with the first computational test satellite "Chengguang No. 1" set to launch, is noted as a significant development in AI computing infrastructure [2][22] Industry Data - In October 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the computer industry increased by 1.0% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year [5][23] - From January to October 2025, the software industry generated a total revenue of 125,104.00 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, with total profits amounting to 15,721.00 billion yuan, up by 7.7% [5][28] - Software exports reached 51.09 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [5][28] - The cumulative production of electronic computers from January to October 2025 was 28,750.20 million units, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, while the notebook computer export volume in October was 10.29 million units, down by 17.9% [5][24] Company Announcements - Pingao Co., Ltd. announced an investment framework agreement to invest 4 billion yuan in Jiangyuan Technology, acquiring a 15.4182% stake, focusing on AI computing hardware [7][38] - Jiahua Technology is planning a major asset restructuring, intending to acquire a controlling stake in Shudun Information Technology [7][42] Market Review - The report notes a decline of 5.26% in the Shenwan Computer Industry Index from November 1 to November 30, 2025, with all sub-sectors experiencing downturns [9][43] - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry was 209.42 times, with a valuation premium of 1477.89% relative to the CSI 300 [9][45] Monthly Strategy - The report emphasizes the ongoing iteration of AI large models by leading domestic manufacturers, which is expected to accelerate technological innovation and application deployment [11][50] - Domestic open-source models like DeepSeek, Tongyi Qianwen, and Kimi are narrowing the performance gap with top international closed-source models, potentially gaining a competitive edge due to better cost-performance ratios [11][50] - The report suggests a focus on AI application sectors driven by rapid technological implementation and demand release, recommending attention to leading companies with strong AI technology deployment capabilities [11][50]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance[1][2][3]

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to see continued investment opportunities, particularly in the engineering machinery and robotics sectors, driven by domestic demand and infrastructure projects [1][6]. - The industry has experienced a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by favorable domestic construction activity and government policies aimed at expanding effective investment [6][39]. Engineering Machinery - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (up 2.44%) and exports at 9,628 units (up 12.90%) [28]. - The sales of various types of loaders increased by 27.70% year-on-year, totaling 10,673 units, with domestic sales growing by 33.23% [33]. - The industry is benefiting from a clear growth logic in downstream demand, with major projects expected to drive further recovery [6][39]. Robotics - In October 2025, China's industrial robot production increased by 17.90% year-on-year, reaching 57,900 units, with cumulative production for the first ten months at approximately 602,700 units, up 28.80% [43]. - The market for industrial robots in China remains the largest globally, with significant room for growth in per capita ownership density [6][43]. Market Performance - From November 2 to December 2, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.86%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index declined by 3.67%, underperforming the broader market by 1.81 percentage points [5][60]. - As of December 2, 2025, the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index had a price-to-earnings ratio (PE, TTM) of 43.59, representing a valuation premium of 210.68% over the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [67]. Company Recommendations - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the industry and recommends "buy" ratings for specific companies, including Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [7].

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to concerns about the labor market, but the space for cuts is limited, aiming slightly below the nominal neutral rate [3] - In Europe, external risks are skewed to the downside, with challenges arising from the recovery of internal economic momentum, while defense spending supported by fiscal measures may revitalize investment in the Eurozone [3] Domestic Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" framework will be adjusted to focus on solidifying development foundations while promoting a unified national market and expanding autonomous openness [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital [4] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but with a focus on credit quality and more precise liquidity management [4] Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with investment stabilizing first while consumption requires systematic policy support [5] - Industrial value-added growth is expected to remain stable due to good external demand, while the ability of high-tech industries to break through will be crucial for improving operational efficiency [5] - Inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly, with a key focus on whether PPI growth can significantly recover [5] Fund Research - In November, the market saw a decline, with the average drop for equity funds being 2.43%, while the mini funds (500 million to 1 billion) had the smallest average drop of 2.26% [9] - The number of new individual investor accounts decreased significantly after several months of growth, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [8] - The private equity market continued to recover, with the total scale reaching a three-year high of 22.05 trillion yuan [8] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment in November, with the ChiNext index dropping 4.23% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67% [12] - The margin trading balance decreased slightly to 24,660.50 billion yuan, with a notable drop in the number of investors participating in margin trading [13] Industry Research: Metals - The steel industry may see weakened demand in December due to weather factors, leading to reduced production and fluctuating prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and low domestic inventory, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [15] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to experience stable profits due to low alumina prices, despite a potential decline in downstream demand [15] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting negotiations for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [20] - The medical manufacturing industry is facing pressure, with cumulative revenue declining by 2.9% year-on-year [21] - The upcoming release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial insurance innovative drug list is expected to create investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector [22]

Industry Overview - The report highlights a warming expectation for interest rate cuts, which is expected to boost metal prices, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes [1][3]. Steel Industry - In December, demand for steel may continue to weaken due to weather factors, leading to a reduction in steel production and a fluctuating price trend [3][19]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from growth policies, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase, alongside trends in equipment upgrades and low-carbon transitions [5][19]. - The average daily transaction volume of construction steel in October 2025 was 101,300 tons, down 1.13% month-on-month and 13.06% year-on-year [20][19]. Copper Industry - The copper supply remains tight, with expectations of continued high price fluctuations supported by low domestic inventory levels and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [3][36]. - In October, domestic refined copper production was 1,204,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.89% [37][36]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the copper industry, driven by demand from power grids, electric vehicles, and AI servers [5][36]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is experiencing a stable profit level for electrolytic aluminum plants due to low alumina prices, although downstream demand is expected to weaken in December [3][41]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October was 3,798,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.23% [42][41]. - The report anticipates that the aluminum price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [5][41]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, influenced by the Fed's interest rate policies and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation [3][47]. - From October 31 to November 28, 2025, COMEX gold prices increased by 6.05% to $4,256.40 per ounce [47][47]. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain high due to strong demand in the energy storage sector, despite a slight decline in demand from the electric vehicle sector [3][52]. - Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 17.50% to 94,000 yuan per ton from October 31 to November 28, 2025 [53][52]. - The report indicates a trend towards regulatory strengthening in the lithium supply side, which may optimize the future supply structure and support lithium prices [5][52]. Cobalt Industry - The cobalt market is expected to face pressure on prices due to a potential decline in demand from the power battery market, while the consumer electronics sector remains robust [4][62]. - In October, domestic cobalt sulfate production was 12,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.72% [66][62].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][4] - The content primarily focuses on market data, financing and securities lending balances, and industry/stock-specific financing and securities lending characteristics[1][8][56] - No quantitative models or factors are constructed or tested in the provided report[1][2][4]

市场震荡下行，私募规模创三年新高 ――公募基金 12 月月报 核心观点： 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150525070001 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 ETF 简称迎统一规范，宽基 指数获得资金净流入—公募 基金周报 2025.11.24 跨境 ETF 持续净流入，"南向 ETF 通"名单扩容—公募基 金周报 2025.11.17 权 益 市场 主要 指数 多数 上 涨，债券类 ETF 规模迎来新 高—公募基金周报 2025.11.10 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2025 年 12 月 3 日 通过对主动权益基金行业仓位的测算，11 月主动权益基金加仓幅度靠前的行业为家用 电器、有色金属和食品饮料；减仓幅度靠前的行业为国防军工、计算机和电子。同 时，我们对主动权益基金的整体仓位进行了测算，2025/11/28 的仓位是 81.96%，较上月 上升了 2.12pct.。 ⚫ 上月市场回顾： 11 月沪深市场主要指数震荡下跌，其中，科创 50 跌幅最大，下 ...