Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Positive" rating, with specific companies recommended for "Increase" ratings: Zhonglian Heavy Industry (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [4][34]. Core Insights - The construction machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in demand due to the rollout of key projects and favorable policies for large-scale equipment updates. Excavator sales in 2025 are projected to reach 235,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 17% [4]. - In the robotics sector, the humanoid robot industry remains vibrant, with significant events such as the upcoming release of Tesla's Optimus 3. The year 2026 is seen as a critical development period for the industry, with several companies pursuing IPOs [4]. - The tower crane utilization rate in December 2025 was reported at 55.1%, indicating a slight decrease from the previous month [12]. Industry News - In December 2025, the profit growth for industrial enterprises above designated size was 0.6%, with total profits amounting to 73,982 billion [12]. - The tower crane rental price index was recorded at 496.52 points, down 5.65 points from the previous month [12]. Company Announcements - Jiechang Drive announced a projected net profit increase of 40.00% to 55.00% for 2025, with expected profits between 394.77 million and 437.06 million [24]. - Aiko Optoelectronics forecasted a staggering net profit growth of 262.52% to 345.20% for 2025, with profits expected to range from 57 million to 70 million [25].

Macro and Strategy Research - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in 2025 is supported by new momentum and anti-involution policies, with a marginal increase in profit growth rate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year [2][3] - In December 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, reversing from negative to positive with an 18.4 percentage point recovery [3] - The industrial added value in December 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, driven by resilient exports and high-tech industries [3] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises in 2025 was 5.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, but the decline was less severe than in the previous months [3] - Among 41 industrial sectors, 16 sectors achieved positive profit growth in 2025, with notable growth in black metal smelting, non-ferrous metal mining, and high-tech manufacturing [4] - The end of three consecutive years of negative profit growth for industrial enterprises is attributed to support from new momentum sectors and the implementation of anti-involution policies [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds remaining stable and other types of bonds seeing growth [6][8] - Credit bond yields generally declined, with credit spreads for medium and short-term notes narrowing [8] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with a focus on adjusting strategies in response to market fluctuations and maintaining a cautious approach to ticket strategies [8] Fund Research - The number of equity funds increased to 7,583 by the end of Q4 2025, with a total scale of 94,572.12 billion, a decrease of 277.04 billion from the previous quarter [11] - Active equity funds saw a slight decrease in positions, with a notable decline in mixed and flexible allocation funds [11][12] - The allocation in the main board decreased significantly, while the allocation in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market increased [12] - The top five industries with increased holdings included non-ferrous metals and communications, while electronics and biomedicine saw a decrease [12] Industry Research - The geopolitical situation has led to strong performance in gold prices, with expectations for continued upward pressure due to uncertainties [14][15] - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to steady growth policies and demand in shipbuilding and construction [15] - The copper industry is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook, supported by supply constraints and demand from key sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [16] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from improved supply dynamics and demand from the new energy vehicle sector [16] - The rare earth industry is projected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export control upgrades and strategic importance [17]

宏观数据点评报告 新动能及反内卷支撑下，全年工企利润实现增长 ――2025 年 1-12 月工业企业效益数据点评 分析师： 严佩佩 SAC NO： S1150520110001 2026 年 1 月 27 日 [Table_Summary] [Table_Author] 证券分析师 事件：2026 年 1 月 27 日，统计局公布了 2025 年 12 月的规模以上工业企业 效益数据。 点评： SAC NO:S1150520110001 宋亦威 022-23861608 SAC NO:S1150514080001 songyw@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛芃[Table_IndInvest] 022-23839160 SAC NO：S1150124030005 jinpp@bhzq.com 2025 年 1-12 月规模以上工业企业利润同比增速边际回升 0.5 个百分点至 0.6%；其中，12 月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 5.3%，由负转正回升 18.4 个百分点。从量、价、利润率三因素来看，首先，受出口韧性以及高技术产 业和装备制造业的拉动，2025 年 12 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.2% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - Scale: The growth of passive index funds has slowed down. As of the end of Q4 2025, there were 7,583 equity funds (excluding ETF-linked funds and FOF funds) in the market, an increase of 294 from Q3 2025. The total scale of all equity funds was RMB 9,457.212 billion, a decrease of RMB 27.704 billion from the previous quarter. Passive index funds had the largest increase in both quantity and scale [3]. - Position: The positions of active equity funds decreased slightly. In terms of arithmetic average and stock market value weighted average position levels, the positions of active equity funds decreased by 1.13 pct. and 0.91 pct. respectively. Specifically, the funds with the largest position decreases were partial equity hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds [3]. - Sector distribution and allocation: There was a significant reduction in the allocation to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and an increase in the allocation to the Main Board. In Q4 2025, the total scale of all top ten heavy - held stocks decreased by RMB 67.305 billion compared with the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of the Main Board increased, while the scales of the other sectors decreased. Compared with the allocation ratio of the total A - share floating market value among sectors, active equity funds continued to under - allocate the Main Board and over - allocate the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market in Q4. Specifically, the under - allocation ratio of the Main Board was - 20.51%, and the over - allocation ratios of the Growth Enterprise Market and the Science and Technology Innovation Board were 13.50% and 7.00% respectively. The under - allocation ratio of the Main Board and the over - allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation Board both narrowed slightly quarter - on - quarter [3]. - Industry allocation: In Q4, the top five industries with an increase in the proportion of holding market value were non - ferrous metals, communication, household appliances, environmental protection, and non - bank finance; the top five industries with a decrease in the proportion of holding market value were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, media, banking, and machinery [3]. - Heavy - held individual stocks: The total market value of active equity funds' holdings of CATL was RMB 181.5 billion, ranking first. The top five stocks in terms of holding market value were CATL, Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic, Kweichow Moutai, and Zijin Mining. Compared with the previous quarter, Tencent Holdings dropped out of the top 5, and Zijin Mining entered the top 5 [3]. - Total shareholding: Stocks such as Foxconn Industrial Internet were reduced, while stocks such as Industrial Bank were increased. In Q4, Industrial Bank, Ping An of China, Meituan - W, Tuojing Technology, and Dongshan Precision had the highest increase in total shareholding. In contrast, Foxconn Industrial Internet, East Money, Alibaba - W, EVE Energy, and CATL had the highest reduction in total shareholding [3]. - Central Huijin ETF holdings: According to the holder data disclosed in the Q4 2025 public fund regular reports, as of the end of Q4 2025, the shareholdings of Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. in most broad - based and industry - specific ETFs remained stable. Only in some industry - themed ETFs were there small redemption actions observed: the special plan managed by Huijin Asset Management redeemed 16 million shares of the automobile ETF and 338 million shares of the electronics ETF under China Asset Management in Q4 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Equity Fund Scale, Position, and Sector Distribution - **1.1 Passive index fund quantity and scale growth slow down, active equity fund positions decrease slightly**: As of the end of Q4 2025, there were 7,583 equity funds (excluding ETF - linked funds and FOF funds) in the market, an increase of 294 from Q3 2025. The total scale of all equity funds was RMB 9,457.212 billion, a decrease of RMB 27.704 billion from the previous quarter. Passive index funds had the largest increase in both quantity and scale. In Q4 2025, the positions of active equity funds decreased slightly. The arithmetic average and stock market value weighted average position levels decreased by 1.13 pct. and 0.91 pct. respectively. The funds with the largest position decreases were partial equity hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds [10][12]. - **1.2 Significant reduction in the allocation to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and an increase in the allocation to the Main Board**: In Q4 2025, the total scale of all top ten heavy - held stocks decreased by RMB 67.305 billion compared with the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of the Main Board increased, while the scales of the other sectors decreased. The allocation ratio of the Main Board increased by 2.14 pct. quarter - on - quarter, and the allocation ratio of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange decreased by 1.54 pct. quarter - on - quarter. Compared with the allocation ratio of the total A - share floating market value among sectors, active equity funds continued to under - allocate the Main Board and over - allocate the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market in Q4. The under - allocation ratio of the Main Board was - 20.51%, and the over - allocation ratios of the Growth Enterprise Market and the Science and Technology Innovation Board were 13.50% and 7.00% respectively. The under - allocation ratio of the Main Board and the over - allocation ratio of the Science and Technology Innovation Board both narrowed slightly quarter - on - quarter [15][16]. 2. Industry Allocation - **2.1 Heavy - held A - share industry distribution**: In Q4 2025, the top ten heavy - held industries of active equity funds were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, communication, computer, machinery, automobile, non - bank finance, pharmaceutical biology, and household appliances. Compared with Q3 2025, the rankings of non - ferrous metals and other industries increased significantly, while the ranking of pharmaceutical biology decreased significantly. In Q4, the top five industries with an increase in the proportion of holding market value were non - ferrous metals, communication, household appliances, environmental protection, and non - bank finance; the top five industries with a decrease in the proportion of holding market value were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, media, banking, and machinery [22][24]. - **2.2 Heavy - held A - share active allocation**: Compared with the weights of CSI 300 constituent stocks, in Q4, active equity funds' heavy - held A - shares maintained a relatively high over - allocation ratio in industries such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment. The over - allocation ratio of electronics was 7.31%, that of non - ferrous metals was 4.10%, and that of power equipment was 2.05%. Industries such as banking, non - bank finance, and food and beverage were still under - allocated. The under - allocation ratio of banking was - 9.62%, that of non - bank finance was - 6.44%, and that of food and beverage was - 4.12%. Compared with Q3, the over - allocation ratio of non - ferrous metals increased significantly, while the over - allocation ratio of electronics decreased significantly [28]. 3. Heavy - Held Stock Situation - **3.1 Tencent Holdings drops out of the top 5, Zijin Mining enters the top 5**: Among the top 20 heavy - held stocks by market value, the total market value of active equity funds' holdings of CATL was RMB 181.5 billion, ranking first. The top five stocks in terms of holding market value were CATL, Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic, Kweichow Moutai, and Zijin Mining. Compared with the previous quarter, Tencent Holdings dropped out of the top 5, and Zijin Mining entered the top 5. In terms of the number of funds with positions, the top five stocks with the most positions in Q4 were CATL, Zhongji Innolight, Zijin Mining, New Fiber Optic, and Tencent Holdings. Among them, 2,043 active equity funds held positions in CATL. Compared with the previous quarter, Zhongji Innolight's ranking rose by 2 places, and Tencent Holdings' ranking dropped by 2 places [31][33]. - **3.2 Stocks such as Foxconn Industrial Internet are reduced, while Industrial Bank is increased**: From the perspective of the change in the total amount of heavy - held stocks held by active equity funds, in Q4, Industrial Bank, Ping An of China, Meituan - W, Tuojing Technology, and Dongshan Precision had the highest increase in total shareholding. In contrast, Foxconn Industrial Internet, East Money, Alibaba - W, EVE Energy, and CATL had the highest reduction in total shareholding [35]. 4. Central Huijin ETF Holdings As of the end of Q4 2025, the shareholdings of Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. in most broad - based and industry - specific ETFs remained stable. Only in some industry - themed ETFs were there small redemption actions observed: the special plan managed by Huijin Asset Management redeemed 16 million shares of the automobile ETF and 338 million shares of the electronics ETF under China Asset Management in Q4 [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [6][6][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the independence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies are expected to boost gold prices in the short term [6][6]. - The copper market is facing supply constraints due to incidents at major mines, which is likely to support copper prices despite high prices potentially suppressing actual consumption [36][36]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price support due to downstream inventory demand, while the lithium market is anticipated to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply expectations [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Steel - The steel industry is expected to improve profitability as growth policies are implemented, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3][3]. - Current steel prices are showing seasonal trends, with expectations of price fluctuations following raw material prices [19][19]. - As of January 23, 2026, the total steel inventory has increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week, indicating a potential accumulation ahead of the Spring Festival [26][26]. Copper - The copper market is experiencing a tightening supply due to strikes affecting production at key mines, which may provide price support [36][36]. - The copper smelting processing fees remain negative, indicating pressure on the supply side, while demand is expected to rise in sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [36][36]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is characterized by stable supply and high operating rates at alumina plants, with expectations of price support from downstream inventory needs [46][46]. - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of alumina is reported at 2,657.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [50][50]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and economic data are influencing gold prices, with a notable increase in prices observed recently [54][54]. - As of January 23, 2026, gold prices have risen by 8.30% on COMEX and 8.07% on SHFE compared to the previous week [54][54]. Lithium and Cobalt - The lithium market is expected to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply conditions, with battery-grade lithium prices increasing by 12.46% recently [58][58]. - Cobalt supply is constrained due to limited export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand is driven by the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [6][6].

固定收益周报 成交金额继续增长，收益率整体保持下行 ――信用债周报 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2026 年 1 月 27 日 核心观点： 本期（1 月 19 日至 1 月 25 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上 行，整体变化幅度为-2 BP 至 6 BP。本期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债 发行金额较上期持平，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券发行金额增加，定向 工具发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，各品种净融资额增加，企业 债、定向工具净融资额为负，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券净融资额为正。 二级市场方面，本期信用债成交金额继续环比增长，中期票据、定向工具成 交金额减少，其余品种成交金额增加。收益率方面，本期信用债收益率多数 下行。信用利差方面，本期中短期票据信用利差整体收窄；企业债 7 年期信 用利差收窄，其余期限多数走阔；城投债 3 年期信用利差收窄，长期限多数 走阔。分位数来看，多数品种利差均处于历史低位，7 年期品种分位数相对 较高。绝对收益角度来看，供给不足和相对旺盛的配置需求将推动信用债延 续修复行情，尽管多空因素影响下震荡调整难以避免，但总体而言，信用债 ...

Group 1: Fund Research - The market review for the week of January 19 to January 23, 2026, shows mixed performance in equity indices, with the CSI 500 leading with a gain of 4.34%. Among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, 24 saw an increase, with the top five sectors being construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [2][3] - The public fund market highlights include the official release of the "Guidelines for Performance Comparison Benchmarks of Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" and the release of the Q4 2025 reports for public funds [2] - In terms of fund performance, quantitative funds had the highest average increase of 1.87%, with a positive return ratio of 76.69%. Fixed income plus funds averaged a 0.59% increase, while pure bond funds saw a 0.11% rise [3] Group 2: Industry Research - Major paper companies are set to increase the price of white cardboard by 200 yuan per ton after the Spring Festival, indicating a positive trend in the paper industry [5][7] - The domestic consumption market showed steady growth in 2025, with a 3.7% increase in total retail sales of consumer goods. Notably, furniture retail sales grew by 14.6%, and home appliances by 11.0% [8] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.10 percentage points during the week of January 19 to January 23, 2026, with a growth of 4.48% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry and textile apparel sectors [53] - Specific companies such as Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Explorer (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guai Bao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co. (002891) are rated as "Buy" [53] Core Insights - Major paper companies are set to increase white card paper prices by 200 yuan/ton after the Spring Festival, driven by rising operational costs and a reduction in supply due to maintenance shutdowns [16][9] - The domestic consumption market is projected to exceed 4 trillion yuan, with retail sales of consumer goods expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025, supported by policies promoting consumption [10][52] - The report highlights a positive trend in the light industry, with the sector outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.10 percentage points from January 19 to January 23 [46][49] Industry News - White card paper prices are currently stable at 4,560 yuan/ton, with expectations for an increase due to upcoming maintenance periods in major paper companies [9][52] - Bubble Mart has repurchased shares totaling nearly 350 million Hong Kong dollars, indicating strong market confidence [16] Important Company Announcements - Zhihong Home expects a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 42.92%-55.89% in 2025 [4][46] - Lutai A anticipates a net profit increase of 38.92%-53.54% in 2025 [5][46]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy shows strong internal momentum with a 0.3% month-on-month increase in personal consumption expenditures adjusted for inflation in November 2025, marking the highest growth rate since the second half of 2025 [2] - In Europe, inflation dropped below 2% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating easing pressure, supported by labor costs and year-end consumption [3] - Domestic economic growth in China for 2025 is expected to meet targets despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, with net exports providing structural support in early 2026 [3] Fixed Income Research - The bond market continues to show signs of recovery, with mid- to long-term bonds performing well, driven by a strong equity market and manageable bank liability pressures [5][7] - The issuance of special bonds increased significantly, with a total of 56 bonds issued, amounting to 619.1 billion yuan during the reporting period [7] - The overall bond market is characterized by a recovery trend, with the yield on 7-year government bonds declining the most [7] Industry Research - Nine departments in China have issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, indicating potential benefits for leading chain pharmacies and an expected operational turning point [10][12] - The SW pharmaceutical industry index shows a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.01, with a valuation premium of 266% relative to the CSI 300 index [11] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, while also monitoring segments like small nucleic acids [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall pattern of interest rates fluctuating within a range remains unchanged. Inflation and monetary policy are the anchor factors for the upper and lower limits of the fluctuations on a quarterly basis. On a weekly basis, the room for the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond to decline further is relatively small. Attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market and the capital market, as well as the performance of 3 - 7Y varieties, while remaining cautious about ultra - long bonds [2][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event Review - In late 2025, the pattern of "stronger supply than demand, and stronger external demand than domestic demand" deepened. In Q4 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of real GDP decreased due to the high - base effect, and the year - on - year decline of the GDP deflator narrowed slightly. In terms of structure, the contribution of investment to the economy weakened, while that of consumption and net exports increased [9]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value rebounded slightly, mainly supported by external demand. The year - on - year decline of cumulative fixed - asset investment widened, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all showing different degrees of decline. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales continued to decline, mainly due to the withdrawal of the "trade - in" policy [9]. - Looking ahead, net exports are expected to continue to drive the economy in Q1 2026. Investment is expected to stabilize, and consumption is expected to improve marginally [9]. 3.2 Capital Prices: Slight Increase - From January 16th to January 22nd, the central bank conducted a net injection of 2439 billion yuan in the open market to support the capital market during the tax period. Capital prices continued to rise slightly, with DR001 rising above 1.4% and DR007 rising above 1.5%. The short - term disturbance factor was tax payment [10]. - The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined slightly. Since 2026, the net financing volume of NCDs has been low, indicating that the pressure on banks' liability side is relatively controllable. Structural interest rate cuts have helped banks further reduce their liability costs [10]. 3.3 Primary Market: Increase in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From January 16th to January 22nd, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 619.1 billion yuan. The issuance scale of special bonds increased significantly. Although the issuance amount of single - Treasury bonds remained high, the subscription sentiment was good [12]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Continued Recovery of the Bond Market - From January 16th to January 22nd, the bond market continued to recover. On the one hand, the strong upward trend of the equity market was curbed; on the other hand, the yields of NCDs declined substantially, the liability pressure of banks was controllable, and their allocation ability was strong [14]. - In terms of term structure, the yield of 7Y Treasury bonds declined the most; the performance of 1Y Treasury bonds was relatively weak, mainly affected by the increase in capital prices; the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds fluctuated significantly [14]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, there is limited information on fundamental data at the beginning of the year. Attention should be mainly paid to the PMI and inflation data in January. If the month - on - month data of PMI and PPI in January improve again, the upper limit of the interest - rate fluctuation range needs to be further adjusted upwards [24]. - Politically, the central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The guiding role of financial data for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is expected to weaken further, and the use of regular tools such as Treasury bond trading will be more flexible. The Ministry of Finance stated that the package of policies to boost domestic demand in 2026 will focus on stimulating private investment and promoting household consumption, and the coordination mechanism between fiscal and monetary policies will be further improved [25]. - In terms of capital, it is expected that capital prices will continue to rise slightly at the end of the month. In the long run, if the central bank adjusts to guide the overnight interest rate to fluctuate around the policy rate, it is equivalent to a substantial and long - term increase in capital prices [26].