宏观经济分析报告 5 内外政策落地，预期逐步对齐 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 12 月 12 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，最新周度初请失业金人数攀升至四季度以来高 位，虽然其有可能受季节性因素扰动偏高，但若结合 JOLTS 显示的招聘人 数减少、裁员人数增多以及劳动力成本增长低于预期等多维度数据来看，劳 动力市场仍在趋势性放缓。延后发布的 9 月 PCE 物价指数同比增速上升但 符合预期且核心分项自今年二季度以来首次出现下降。同时，实际个人 ...

行 行业周报 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 医保商保"双目录"发布，错位发展支持创新 ——医药生物行业周报 分析师： 侯雅楠 SAC NO： S1150524120001 2025 年 12 月 12 日 医药生物 证券分析师 侯雅楠 houyn@bhzq.com 022-23839211 研子究行助业理评级 中药Ⅱ 看好 重点品种推荐 恒瑞医药 买入 近三月行业指数走势图 相关研究报告 中国药品价格登记系统正式 上线——医药生物行业周报 2025.12.05 关注医保目录及商保创新药 投资要点： 行业要闻 （1）新版基本医保药品目录及首个《商业健康保险创新药品目录》发布； （2）中国生物制药首创 CDK2/4/6 抑制剂获批上市。 公司公告 （1）石药集团：①司美格鲁肽注射液的第二项上市许可申请获 NMPA 受理； ②GLP-1/GIP 受体双偏向性激动多肽注射液（SYH2069 注射液）在美国获临 床试验批准；③重组全人源抗 ACTRIIA/IIB 单克隆抗体（JMT206）在美国获 临床试验批准； （2）复星医药：控股子公司签订许可协议； （3）恒瑞医药：公司药品纳入国家医保目录； （4）君实生物 ...

A 股投资策略报告 政策强调"质"的提升，扩大内需仍为首要任务 ――中央经济工作会议要点解读 | | | 宋亦威 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com [Table_Author] 严佩佩 022-23839070 SAC No:S1150520110001 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛芃[Table_IndInvest] 022-23839160 SAC NO：S1150124030005 jinpp@bhzq.com [学Table_Summary 习 ] 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议，我们共总结了六 方面的收获，具体内容如下： 一、着眼于提质增效，着力推动经济实现质的有效提升。在 2026 年经 济工作部署中，"质的有效提升"被置于更加突出的位置。会议明确要求"明 年经济工作的政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"。值得注意的是，会 议不仅很罕见的将"贯彻新发展理念"、"构建新发展格局"、"推动高质量发 展"等表述置于"坚持稳中求进的总基调"之前，更明确提出要"推动经济 实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"。尤其强调要"在质的有效提升上取得更 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - CPI in November 2025 shows a significant increase in vegetable and gold prices, while travel chain prices decline due to seasonal demand drop and OPEC+ production increases affecting energy prices [2] - The forecast for December indicates CPI growth around 0.5% year-on-year, with an expected annual CPI growth of approximately 0% for 2025 [3] - PPI in November 2025 shows an expanded year-on-year decline, with a stable month-on-month increase, driven by seasonal demand in coal and gas, and a narrowing decline in prices for solar equipment and lithium-ion battery manufacturing [3] A-Share Market Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.14% over the past five trading days [4] - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in exports to Japan, South Korea, and the EU, indicating an ongoing optimization of export structure [5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a proactive macro policy for 2026, focusing on building a strong domestic market and fostering new growth drivers [5] Industry Research - The approval for NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China is expected to alleviate supply issues for domestic cloud computing firms, while domestic chip companies are likely to accelerate product development through financing [7][8] - Alibaba's establishment of the Qianwen C-end business group aims to create a "super app," indicating a strategic push towards AI applications in consumer-facing products [7] - The investment opportunities in the TMT sector and robotics are highlighted due to ongoing capital expansion by domestic and international cloud vendors and the anticipated growth in AI application demand [6]

Market Review - In the past five trading days (December 5 to December 11), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index slightly decreased by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3.14% [3] - The trading volume increased, with a total of 9.30 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.86 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 205.98 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [11] Economic Data - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly rebounding from October, influenced by a lower base, stable external demand, and the end of holiday disruptions [26] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year [28] Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8, outlining the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [34] - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, indicating a focus on structural adjustments and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies [34] Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with a positive outlook driven by policy support and liquidity expectations [36] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic substitution processes [36] - The energy storage demand and solid-state battery industrialization present investment opportunities in the power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors [36] - The banking sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment due to the low interest rate environment and the return of public fund holdings to performance benchmarks [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the computer industry and an "Accumulate" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [28] Core Insights - The approval for NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China is expected to alleviate some supply constraints faced by domestic cloud computing companies [12] - Alibaba has established the Qianwen C-end business group, aiming to create a "super app" that serves as the primary entry point for users in the AI era [12] - Baidu is evaluating the spin-off and IPO of Kunlun Chip, with plans to submit an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as Q1 2026 [13] - The AI application sector is experiencing rapid growth, driven by major internet companies accelerating their C-end smart applications [27] - The AI computing power industry is expected to maintain high prosperity, supported by the maturation of the domestic computing power industry chain [27] Industry News - The U.S. government will allow NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China, with shipments starting in 2024. The H200 chip is designed for training and running AI models and offers significant performance improvements over its predecessor [12] - Alibaba's Qianwen C-end business group aims to integrate various services into a single app, enhancing user accessibility to AI technologies [12] - Baidu's Kunlun Chip, which focuses on general AI chip design, has shown rapid business growth and is preparing for a potential IPO [13] Industry Data - The rental prices for computing power remain stable, with specific configurations priced as follows: - V100-32GB*8 at 66.63 CNY/hour - A100-40GB*8 at 161.50 CNY/hour - A100-80GB*1 at 5.95 CNY/hour - A800-80GB*1 at 7.50 CNY/hour [14][15] Market Review - From December 4 to December 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.34%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry Index increased by 1.13%. Most sub-sectors within the computer industry saw gains, with vertical application software leading at 2.45% [20][21] Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the growth potential of AI applications driven by technological advancements and market demand. It suggests focusing on leading companies with strong capabilities in AI technology implementation and scene adaptation [27][28]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from a previous increase of 0.2%[10] - The CPI's month-on-month change shifted from an increase to a decrease, primarily due to seasonal declines in service prices and lower energy prices[3] - Fresh vegetable prices rose significantly by 7.2%, exceeding the seasonal average decline of 3.2%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI increase[13] - Pork prices decreased by 2.2%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.07 percentage points due to sufficient market supply[13] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In November 2025, the PPI's year-on-year decline widened, while the month-on-month change remained stable[4] - The PPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase in December, with a year-on-year decline projected at -1.8%[24] - The prices of upstream raw materials, such as coal and gas, are expected to rise seasonally due to increased demand[23] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually improve prices in key industries, positively impacting the PPI in the long term[24] Group 3: Market Outlook - The CPI is projected to maintain a month-on-month growth rate near zero in December, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 0.5% expected for 2025[3] - The ongoing OPEC+ production increase is likely to keep oil prices under pressure, affecting the CPI negatively[3] - Core inflation is anticipated to see reduced support from gold prices, while seasonal increases in service prices are expected[3]

崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.11） 晨会纪要（2025/12/11） 编辑人 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 11 月挖掘机销量超 2 万台，同比增长 13.9%——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/11） 金融工程研究 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（12 月 3 日-12 月 9 日）A 股市场主要指数全部上涨，其中创业板指涨幅最大，上涨了 4.51%；上证综 指涨幅最小，上涨了 0.30%。此外，深证成指上涨 1.69%，科创 50 上涨 2.04%，沪深 300 上涨 0.96%，上证 50 上涨 0.65%，中证 500 上涨 1.15%。 12 月 9 日，沪深两市两融余额为 25,030.36 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to construction, testing, or evaluation[1][2][4]

Macroeconomic and Strategic Research - In November 2025, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while imports rose by 1.9%, leading to a trade surplus of $111.68 billion, a significant increase from the previous month's surplus of $90.07 billion [3][4] - The increase in exports was driven by the easing of previous disturbances, stable external demand, and a lower base effect, with exports to Africa and the EU showing substantial growth [3][4] - The cumulative trade surplus for the year surpassed $1 trillion, marking a historical high, with mechanical and electrical products contributing almost entirely to export growth [3][4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance of credit bonds decreased, while corporate bonds saw an increase in issuance, leading to a net financing decrease in credit bonds [5][7] - Credit bond yields rose across the board, with a divergence in credit spreads observed among different bond types, indicating a mixed market sentiment [7][9] - The report suggests that despite the current bearish conditions, the overall environment for credit bonds remains supportive for long-term investments, with a focus on adjusting strategies based on market trends [7][9] Industry Research - The steel industry is expected to face increasing pressure as demand weakens, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated [10][12] - Copper prices are supported by supply constraints due to accidents at major mines, while demand is expected to rise with the global shift towards lower interest rates [10][12] - The aluminum sector is projected to benefit from macroeconomic liquidity, with expectations of improved profitability driven by demand from the electric vehicle and high-voltage power grid sectors [10][12] - The rare earth industry is highlighted for its strategic importance, with potential price impacts from export controls and evolving trade relations [10][12][13]