宏观经济分析报告 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 2 月 21 日 59 海外地缘波动不定，国内迎信贷开门红 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInv 芃 est] SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 就外围环境而言，美国方面，1 月零售销售数据高位回落，环比增速创近 1 年以来最大跌幅，一方面是受美国南部地区寒潮和洛杉矶山火等极端事件 影响，另一方面是假期过后消费的阶段性回归。由于零售销售数据更多反 映商品消费，因此更为全面的消费情况还需月末个人消费支出数据确认。 另外，美国 1 月工业产出环比增速超预期上行，主要受供热等公用事业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [2][25] - Specific companies such as SANY Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), and CRRC (601766) are rated as "Buy" [2][25] Core Insights - In January 2025, the average working hours for major construction machinery products was 74.6 hours, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.61% but a month-on-month decrease of 20.6% [7] - The average operating rate for major construction machinery products in January 2025 was 56.2%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 8 percentage points month-on-month [7] - The excavator sales in 2024 reached 201,100 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.13%, with domestic sales showing significant growth while exports experienced a slight decline [25] Industry News - SANY Heavy Industry is planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and improve governance transparency [14] - Changfu Co. reported a 6.91% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, benefiting from the steady progress of national nuclear power construction [15] Market Review - From February 12 to February 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector fell by 0.44%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.21 percentage points [17] - As of February 18, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 27.42 times, with a valuation premium of 125.06% compared to the Shanghai Composite [18] Upcoming Projects - A cross-border railway construction agreement between Mongolia and China is expected to start in April 2025, which may boost demand for rail transit equipment [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light manufacturing industry [6]. Core Insights - The "Guzi" economy, which refers to merchandise derived from two-dimensional culture IPs, is rapidly developing with a market size projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 40.63% from 2023, and is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2029 [1][18]. - The industry chain of the Guzi economy encompasses various segments, including IP creation, operation, production, and terminal channels, with an average gross margin exceeding 40% [1][25]. - The Z generation (born between 1995-2010) is the primary consumer group, particularly in first-tier cities, with strong purchasing power driven by emotional satisfaction and identity recognition [1][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Development of the Guzi Economy - The Guzi economy is characterized by a market size surpassing 150 billion yuan, with significant growth potential [1.1]. - The industry chain includes multiple segments, each with favorable profit margins [1.2]. 2. Expanding Audience and Collaborative Development - The pan-two-dimensional population in China is steadily increasing, expected to reach 503 million by 2024, creating a favorable environment for the Guzi economy [2.1]. - The domestic animation and gaming industries are thriving, with sales revenues of 300 billion yuan and 245.92 billion yuan respectively in 2023 [2.2]. - The number of offline Guzi stores has exceeded 3,000, indicating a trend of expansion [2.3]. - The rise of self-satisfying consumption post-pandemic aligns well with the characteristics of the Guzi economy, which offers emotional fulfillment with low investment [2.4]. - The integration of the Guzi economy with the "first-release economy" is expected to elevate the industry in the medium to long term [2.5]. 3. Investment Strategy - The Guzi economy presents new monetization models for companies with IPs, particularly in the light manufacturing sector, which has already established a presence in IP co-branded products [3].

[Table_MainInfo] 国内下游复苏向好，美国拟实施对等关税 ――金属行业周报 | 分析师： 张珂 | | SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 2 | 年 | 月 | 18 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | Table_Summary] [投资要点： | | | | | | 张珂 | | | | | | | | 022-23839062 |  | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | 钢铁：随着元宵节后下游继续复工复产，需求有望继续恢复，钢价短期或得 | | | | | | [Table_Contactor] | | 到支撑，需关注宏观消息和事件的影响。 | | | | | | [Table_IndInvest] 行业评级 | | | | | | | | 钢铁 | 中性 | 铜：铜矿供应偏紧的局面将给铜价带来支撑；关税不确定性和贸易战风险对 | | | | | 铜价有压制，但市场对国内刺激宏观需求的预期利 ...

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [4][6]. Core Views - The recovery of downstream demand in the domestic market is expected to support steel prices in the short term, while macroeconomic news and events should be monitored [2][4]. - Copper prices are expected to be supported by tight copper ore supply, although uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade wars may exert pressure on prices [2][4]. - The aluminum market is facing downward pressure on alumina prices, but domestic demand recovery is crucial [3][4]. - Gold prices may continue to rise due to safe-haven demand, despite uncertainties surrounding tariff implementations [3][4]. - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to ongoing inventory accumulation and unfavorable profit margins for material suppliers [3][4]. Industry Data Summary Steel - The steel industry has seen an increase in both supply and demand, with overall inventory rising. The procurement volume of Shanghai's terminal rebar was 0.42 million tons on February 14 [18][20]. - The production of five major steel varieties reached 8.1462 million tons, a 0.74% increase from February 7, and a 1.31% increase year-on-year [20][24]. - As of February 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 85.60%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from February 7 [24][26]. - Total steel inventory was 18.2076 million tons, an 8.77% increase from February 7, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.86% [26][27]. Copper - Domestic macro sentiment has improved, providing some support for copper prices, while the processing fees for copper concentrate have been declining [34][35]. - On February 14, the LME copper spot price was $9,800 per ton, a 5.64% increase from February 7 [39][40]. Aluminum - Domestic demand for aluminum has shown signs of recovery, but alumina prices are expected to continue their downward trend [41][43]. - On February 14, the LME aluminum spot price was $2,700 per ton, a 0.85% increase from February 7 [44][45]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen due to increased safe-haven demand, with COMEX gold closing at $2,893.70 per ounce on February 14, a 0.26% increase from February 7 [50][51]. - Silver prices also increased, with COMEX silver closing at $32.66 per ounce, a 1.46% rise [50][51]. Lithium and Other Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to inventory accumulation, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 76,400 yuan per ton on February 14, a 1.42% decrease [52][53]. - Cobalt and nickel prices have remained stable, with cobalt priced at 166,000 yuan per ton [55][56]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Light rare earth prices have increased, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 434,000 yuan per ton, a 2.12% increase [59][60].

行 业 研 究 | 第1 海 证 学 | | --- | | Bohai Securities | [Table_MainInfo] 文化纸温和上涨可期，上海推动 IP、宠物消费发展 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 推荐组合：欧派家居（603833）、索菲亚（002572）、探路者（300005）、 森马服饰（002563）、乖宝宠物（301498）。 风险提示 宏观经济波动；原材料成本上涨；新产能无法及时消化；大客户流失。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 12 行业周报 | | 分析师： 袁艺博 | | | SAC NO： S1150521120002 | | | 2025 | 年 月 2 | 17 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | |  行业要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry and textile apparel sectors, while recommending "Increase" ratings for specific companies including Oppein Home, Sophia, Explorer, Semir Apparel, and Guibao Pet [25][4][24]. Core Insights - Global corrugated packaging giant Smurfit Westrock reported a record revenue of approximately 226.1 billion RMB for 2024, establishing a new industry benchmark [8]. - Hermes experienced a 13% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching 15.2 billion euros, with plans for a 6%-7% price increase globally [8]. - The cultural paper sector is expected to see a price increase of 200 RMB per ton starting March 1, 2025, driven by rising raw material costs and the upcoming peak demand season for educational printing paper [23][24]. Industry News - The corrugated packaging industry is witnessing significant growth, with Smurfit Westrock leading the way [8]. - The demand for cultural printing paper is anticipated to rise as the traditional peak season approaches [23]. - The Shanghai government is promoting new consumption initiatives, particularly in the IP and pet economy sectors, which are expected to stimulate market demand [24]. Company Announcements - Chenming Paper Industry received approval for the dissolution of its financial subsidiary [17]. - Aori Jin is expected to complete the acquisition of remaining shares from COFCO Packaging by April 17, 2025 [17]. Market Review - From February 10 to February 14, the light industry sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.11 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector lagged behind by 0.01 percentage points [18][21]. - The top-performing stocks in the light industry included Jinyun Laser and Delixi, while the textile sector saw significant movements in stocks like Ruibeka and Zhejiang Wenyi [18][21].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [2] - Key companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC are rated as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - In January 2025, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in China were 66.20 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 17.20% [7] - The Tesla Shanghai energy storage super factory has commenced production, marking a new phase for Tesla's operations in China [7][8] - The construction machinery industry is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and a recovering real estate market, which will drive demand for related equipment [24] Industry News - The operating hours of Komatsu excavators in various regions showed mixed results, with Japan, North America, Europe, and Indonesia experiencing year-on-year growth [7] - Tesla's new factory in Shanghai is expected to produce 10,000 units of the Megapack energy storage system annually, with a storage capacity of nearly 40 GWh [8] Industry Data - As of February 8, 2025, the steel composite price index (CSPI) was 96.34 [9] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices were reported at $72.32 and $75.87 per barrel, respectively, as of February 11, 2025 [10] Company Announcements - Kede CNC reported a revenue of approximately 605 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.88% [14] - Zhongdali intends to invest approximately 200 million yuan in a precision core component production line project [15] Market Review - From February 5 to February 11, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.73%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector increased by 6.10%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.37 percentage points [17] - The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 27.55, with a valuation premium of 128.39% relative to the CSI 300 [18] Weekly Perspective - Excavator sales in 2024 reached 201,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, with domestic sales showing significant growth [24] - The anticipated mass production of humanoid robots by Tesla in 2026 is expected to create investment opportunities in the related supply chain [24]

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [1] Core Views - The steel production is expected to rebound after the Spring Festival, but short-term demand remains weak due to adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic disturbances, leading to a potential decline in steel prices [1][16] - Copper supply is tight, which supports copper prices; however, short-term demand may be weak due to the time required for downstream manufacturers to resume normal production [1][37] - Aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure due to ongoing declines in alumina prices and external factors such as EU sanctions and US tariffs affecting aluminum exports [1][42] - Gold prices are rising due to safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, with long-term bullish factors including high US debt and inflation risks [1][71] - The tin industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the semiconductor sector and demand driven by AI and new energy developments [1][71] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel inventory continues to accumulate as downstream production has not fully resumed; production is expected to increase post-holiday, but demand is still weak [16][26] - As of February 7, steel production was 8.0863 million tons, down 0.36% from January 24, and inventory reached 5.2374 million tons, up 38.72% from January 24 [18][26] - The average profit margins for hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel are negative, indicating pressure on profitability [36] Copper Industry - The copper smelting fee is negative, indicating tight supply conditions; LME copper prices increased by 0.76% to $9,300 per ton as of February 7 [38][41] - The copper inventory at LME decreased by 3.88%, while SHFE inventory increased significantly by 143.55% [41] Aluminum Industry - The price of alumina is expected to continue declining, which will reduce cost pressures for aluminum producers; LME aluminum prices decreased slightly by 0.02% to $2,600 per ton [42][44] - The domestic aluminum production capacity is expected to gradually increase post-holiday [42] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 3.91% to $2,886.10 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [47] - Silver prices also rose, reflecting similar trends in the precious metals market [47] Lithium and New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply pressures from the resumption of domestic lithium salt production [49] - As of February 7, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 77,500 yuan per ton, down 0.64% from January 24 [50] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Light rare earth prices increased, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 425,000 yuan per ton, up 2.41% [59] - Tungsten and other minor metal prices remained stable [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [5][31] - Specific companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, Toread, Semir Apparel, and Guibao Pet are rated as "Buy" [5][31] Core Insights - In 2024, the paper and paper products industry achieved a total profit of 51.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Sport have outlined plans to build around 100 high-quality outdoor sports destinations by 2030, which is expected to boost the outdoor sports equipment and apparel sectors [5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy during the Spring Festival in 2025 has shown significant effects, with key monitored retail enterprises reporting a year-on-year sales increase of over 10% in home appliances and communication equipment [5][31] Industry News - The paper and paper products industry reported a revenue of 1,456.62 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [12] - The Weifu Group has shown initial success in its transformation, with a revenue of 2.8 billion USD in Q3 of FY2025, marking a 2% year-on-year increase [12] Market Review - From February 5 to February 7, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.38 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 1.60% compared to the CSI 300's 1.98% [25] - The textile and apparel sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.43 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 0.55% [29] Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in stimulating home decoration and household consumption, which are expected to benefit the home furnishing sector [5][31] - The report also notes that the recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have led domestic export-oriented companies to accelerate their globalization strategies to mitigate tariff risks [5][31]