1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, it's hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Policy expectations, asset price - to - ratio, and institutional behavior are still the main influencing factors. In 2026, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase [1][22]. - After the content of the Central Economic Work Conference is clear, the bond market within the year will revolve around institutional behavior and the equity market. The bond market is expected to be mainly volatile, with a high probability of a steeper yield curve. Ultra - long bonds will still have high volatility, and it's not advisable to overly expect an end - of - year rush - to - buy market [1][22][24]. - One can moderately grasp the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds with a maturity of 7 years or less, as well as the term spread of 5Y - 3Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event Reviews 3.1.1 Financial Data - As of the end of November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.5%. In the first eleven months, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the balance of M2 at the end of November increased by 8% year - on - year. In November, social financing increased year - on - year, with an increase in corporate bond financing scale. However, government bond financing and on - balance - sheet credit financing were still drag factors. RMB loans decreased year - on - year in November. In terms of structure, short - term corporate loans improved, while medium - and long - term corporate loans still decreased year - on - year, and the bill financing impulse was obvious. The household sector continued to de - leverage. The year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both declined in November [7]. - Looking ahead, policy - based financial instruments are expected to boost credit, but the high base of government bond financing remains a drag. The year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock may decline slightly, and the progress of household deposit transfer is still worthy of attention [7]. 3.1.2 Economic Data - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industries above the designated size was 4.8%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%. Domestic demand continued to be weak, and effective demand still needed to be boosted. In terms of production, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down slightly in November. In terms of investment, the decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment further expanded in November. In terms of consumption, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods slowed down in November, while the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of service consumption increased slightly [8][9]. - Looking ahead, it is expected that the "anti - involution" and a slight weakening of exports will restrict production in December. The growth rate of industrial production in 2025 is expected to be about 5.8%, the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be about 2.0%, the infrastructure investment is expected to show a recovery trend with a growth rate of about 1.0% in 2025, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 is expected to be around 3.7% [9]. 3.1.3 Fiscal Data - From January to November 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 1.4% year - on - year; the national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 13.7% year - on - year. In terms of public finance revenue, the year - on - year increase in tax revenue was slightly expanded. In terms of public finance expenditure, the year - on - year growth rate of expenditure declined, mainly due to the earlier expenditure rhythm this year. In terms of the expenditure structure, the three focuses of public finance expenditure from January to November were people's livelihood, science and technology, and green, and efforts were further increased in the science and technology field in November. In terms of government - funded revenue and expenditure, the revenue side was still dragged down by the land market [10]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the Central Economic Work Conference continued to describe fiscal policy as "more proactive", emphasizing the guarantee of necessary expenditures. In terms of rhythm, it will "actively act ahead" and "reasonably speed up the allocation and disbursement of funds". In terms of structure, attention can be paid to strengthening the financial guarantee for major national strategies, accelerating debt resolution, and tax system reform [10]. 3.2 Funding Prices: Central Bank's Injection of Cross - Year Funds - During the period from December 12th to December 18th, the central bank's net injection of funds in the open market was 134 billion yuan. The central bank over - renewed 200 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase agreements and conducted 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to support the cross - year funding situation. On December 18th, DR014 and R014 increased by 10bp and 6bp respectively, while DR001 and DR007 remained stable. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined slightly, which is in line with the seasonal characteristic of the decline in CD yields at the end of the year [11][12]. 3.3 Primary Market: Decrease in Supply Scale - From December 12th to December 18th, a total of 46 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market. There was no end - of - year surge in the issuance of special bonds. Since December, the issuance frequency of the China Development Bank and the Export - Import Bank of China has also decreased, and the supply pressure of interest - rate bonds is limited [14]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Steeper Yield Curve - During the period from December 12th to December 18th, the yields of Treasury bonds with different maturities showed differentiation. The yields of medium - and short - term Treasury bonds mostly declined, while the yields of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds increased slightly, showing a steeper yield curve. The decline in medium - and short - term interest rates may be related to the loose funding situation. The winning bid rate of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation may have decreased compared with that in September, driving up the short - term bullish sentiment. The long - term interest rate has a strong gaming sentiment, with a larger single - day fluctuation range. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has a psychological support level of 1.85%, while the 30 - year Treasury bond yield has less upward resistance and greater fluctuation [16]. 3.5 Market Outlook 3.5.1 Fundamental Aspect It's difficult to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing currently. Policy expectations, asset price - to - ratio, and institutional behavior are still the main influencing factors. In 2026, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase, and price signals are the key [1][22]. 3.5.2 Policy Aspect - In 2026, fiscal policy will "actively act ahead" and "reasonably speed up the allocation and disbursement of funds", with a similar rhythm to 2025. In terms of expenditure structure, it will "strengthen the financial guarantee for major national strategies and promote more funds and resources to be invested in people", and supporting people's livelihood remains an important direction [1][22]. - Monetary policy emphasizes "striving to achieve economic growth and price recovery" and supplements the original statement of "matching the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations". Reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and liquidity injection tools of various maturities will be used flexibly [1][22]. 3.5.3 Funding Aspect As the cross - year period approaches, funding prices may rise slightly, but with the central bank's open - market operations, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds is limited [1][22].

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - October non-farm payroll data showed a significant reduction in government employment, resulting in negative growth[1] - November data indicated minimal job growth, with a potential overestimation of 60,000 jobs per month as suggested by Powell[1] - Unemployment rate increased slightly in November, reaching the upper level of the Fed's forecast, amid rising labor participation[1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - November inflation data fell below expectations, but its accuracy is questioned due to data collection issues[1] - Despite calls for significant rate cuts from the White House, expectations for a rate cut in January appear hesitant[1] - The European Central Bank maintained its policy rate, adjusting economic growth forecasts for 2026 while indicating slow inflation decline due to service sector stickiness[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - November's economic fundamentals showed a preference for new productive investments and service consumption, with a divergence between stable supply and weak demand[3] - Weak credit data indicated a stagnant real estate cycle and reduced consumer loans due to subsidy cuts[3] - Fiscal policy is expected to slightly strengthen in December, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs[3] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Downstream real estate transactions showed a slight recovery, while agricultural wholesale prices increased[3] - Midstream steel and cement prices have rebounded, while upstream coal and coke prices are rising, with mixed trends in non-ferrous metal prices[3]

Macro and Strategy Research - The A-share market is experiencing a confirmed bottom, with expectations for a cross-year rally to unfold [2] - In the past five trading days (December 12-18), major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.08% and the ChiNext Index falling by 1.79% [2] - The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.81 trillion yuan, down by 491.08 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Economic data for November shows a 2.6% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment, indicating weakening investment demand [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized expanding domestic demand as a top priority for the coming year, with a focus on service consumption in areas like culture, tourism, and elderly care [3] Strategy Insights - The A-share market is expected to gradually recover from low levels as the cross-year and spring market approaches [4] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing capital expansion in AI and domestic substitution of computing power [4] - The power equipment and non-ferrous metals industries are highlighted as having investment potential due to high global demand for energy storage and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [4] - The banking sector is also noted for potential allocation opportunities, supported by a low-interest-rate environment and a return to performance benchmarks by public funds [4] Industry Research - Xiaomi has launched an open-source MoE model and a web-based AI chat service, indicating a deepening layout in AI applications [5][7] - The domestic first space computing joint laboratory is set to be established, showcasing advancements in AI technology [5] - The computer industry saw a decline, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index dropping by 0.26% and the computer sector down by 2.01% from December 11 to December 17 [5] - The report suggests that the acceleration of large model product iterations by leading domestic and international firms will drive technological innovation and application [6]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - National general public budget revenue for January-November 2025 reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[2] - National general public budget expenditure totaled 248,538 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%[2] - Government fund budget revenue was 40,274 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.9%[2] - Government fund budget expenditure increased to 92,124 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7%[2] Public Finance Insights - The growth rate of public finance expenditure decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to January-October 2025, necessitating a December growth rate of over 20% to meet annual targets[3] - Expenditure focus areas included livelihood, technology, and green initiatives, with technology spending growth reaching 7.9%[3] - Social security and employment spending grew by 8.1%, indicating strong support for livelihoods[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline of 7.7%, with only environmental spending showing positive growth[3] Government Fund Challenges - The year-on-year decline in government fund revenue was exacerbated by a 2.1 percentage point increase in the decline rate, primarily due to land market issues[4] - Government fund expenditure growth slowed to 13.7%, influenced by high base effects from 2024's special bond issuance[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total expenditure, indicating a proactive fiscal approach for 2026[8] - Key focus areas for future spending include optimizing expenditure structure and addressing local government financial pressures[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry has been downgraded from "Positive" to "Neutral," while maintaining a "Buy" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [2][29] Core Insights - Xiaomi has released an open-source MoE model and launched a web-based AI chat service, which is expected to deepen its AI application layout [13] - The AI application sector is experiencing high prosperity, with major domestic companies accelerating their C-end application layouts [27] - The recent release of OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model is aimed at unlocking more economic value and enhancing capabilities in various tasks [14] Industry News - Xiaomi's new open-source MoE model, Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Flash, features 309 billion parameters and is designed for AI agents, achieving significant efficiency improvements [13] - The first domestic space computing joint laboratory is set to be established, focusing on autonomous and controllable space computing chip development [13] - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model is now available for developers and professional users, with different versions tailored for various tasks [14] Market Review - From December 11 to December 17, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry Index dropped by 2.01%, with all sub-sectors experiencing declines [20][21] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Computer Industry is 201.44 times, with a valuation premium of 1416.92% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [21] Weekly Strategy - The ongoing iteration and upgrade of large model products by leading domestic and international companies are expected to accelerate technological innovation and application landing [27] - Companies like Google are expanding their computing power to meet the rising demand for AI services, while domestic chip companies are leveraging financing channels to enhance their product development [27]

Market Review - In the recent five trading days (December 12 to December 18), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.79% [5] - The trading volume decreased, with a total of 9.06 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, down by 491.08 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [9][22] Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to November, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a marginal decline of 0.9 percentage points [26] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 1.1% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, reflecting a slowdown in investment sentiment [26] - Real estate investment dropped by 15.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [26] Policy Focus - The central government's economic work meeting emphasized that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for 2025, with a focus on service consumption in areas such as cultural tourism, elderly care, and childcare [32] - The government plans to optimize fiscal spending by increasing investment in people's livelihoods and enhancing monetary policy flexibility to support price recovery [32] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with a potential rebound as the market approaches the year-end and spring rally periods [33] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. TMT and robotics sectors due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic computing power substitution [34] 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors driven by high global energy storage demand [34] 3. Social services and resource sectors as policy adjustments focus on structural changes and "anti-involution" measures [34] Industry Performance - Among the major sectors, non-bank financials, transportation, and retail sectors showed the highest gains, while the real estate, power equipment, and comprehensive sectors experienced the largest declines [22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [7] Core Insights - The company is a global leader in artificial turf, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of the year, growing by 9.52% and 30.89% year-on-year, respectively [1][28] - The company has a strong presence in the leisure turf segment, which accounted for over 70% of revenue in the first half of the year, with products sold in over 140 countries and overseas revenue exceeding 95% [1][33] - The global artificial turf market is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 9.28% in industry size and 11.21% in sales area from 2015 to 2023, reaching €4.141 billion by 2027, a 28.64% increase from 2023 [3][53] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a global leader in the artificial turf industry since its founding in 2004, becoming a preferred supplier for international organizations such as FIFA and World Rugby [19][20] - The company has a concentrated family ownership structure, with the chairman holding 54.54% of shares directly and a total of 89.34% held by family members and related parties [25][19] Market Development - The global artificial turf market is expected to exceed €4 billion by 2027, with significant contributions from Chinese companies, which account for 37% of global production [53][56] - The EMEA region is the largest market for artificial turf, with a demand of 1.76 million square meters in 2023, representing 44.77% of global demand [62][66] Competitive Advantages - The company has a robust R&D system, with R&D expenses of ¥71.82 million in the first three quarters of 2025, a 10.58% increase year-on-year, significantly higher than peers [5][28] - The company has established long-term partnerships with major wholesalers and home improvement chains, enhancing its market position [5][28] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve EPS of ¥1.64, ¥1.89, and ¥2.20 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a PE ratio of 22.93 for 2025, indicating a premium valuation due to its unique market position [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price based on a projected PE of 86.90 times for 2025 [8]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in self-lubricating bearings, with a strong brand reputation and extensive application across various industries including automotive, engineering machinery, and robotics [2][21]. - The global bearing market is expected to grow from approximately $145.19 billion in 2025 to $329.4 billion by 2034, with self-lubricating bearings showing significant advantages in specific applications [5][33]. - The automotive sector is projected to maintain growth, with global sales expected to reach 95.31 million units in 2024, reflecting a 2.65% year-on-year increase, which will drive demand for self-lubricating bearings [6][42]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with significant sales growth expected, further increasing the demand for self-lubricating bearings [6][55]. - The company is actively developing its robotics business, focusing on self-lubricating bearings for joints and other components, with potential for significant revenue growth in the future [7][66]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in self-lubricating bearings and has a high brand recognition, being a key player in the industry since its establishment in 1995 and listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2017 [21][22]. - The product range includes self-lubricating bearings and high-performance polymers, with applications in various sectors such as automotive, engineering machinery, and renewable energy [22][24]. Industry Background - The bearing industry is categorized into sliding and rolling bearings, with self-lubricating bearings gaining traction due to their advantages in maintenance and operational costs [32][35]. - The automotive market is expected to see an increase in the number of self-lubricating bearings used per vehicle, driven by trends towards lightweight and reliable components [42][45]. - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a rebound, with increased sales of excavators and loaders, which will enhance the demand for self-lubricating bearings [51][55]. - The wind power sector is also growing, with a shift towards self-lubricating bearings in large wind turbines, indicating a trend of "sliding replacing rolling" [59][63]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 1.29 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.71 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 271 million, 308 million, and 359 million yuan in the same years [8][12].

晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年工业机器人产量有望突破 70 万台——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（12 月 10 日-12 月 16 日）A 股市场主要指数全部震荡调整，其中创业板指跌幅最大，下跌了 4.29%； 上证 50 跌幅最小，下跌了 1.44%。此外，上证综指下跌 2.17%，深证成指下跌 2.73%，科创 50 下跌 3.99%， 沪深 300 下跌 2.19%，中证 500 下跌 1.69%。 12 月 16 日，沪深两市两融余额为 24, ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance[1][2][3]