宏 观 研 究 税收收入同比涨幅收窄，非税收入同比降幅扩大。税收收入中，增值税和企业 所得税收入同比涨幅收窄，可能源于 11 月工业增加值、社零等经济数据降温 滞后反馈在税收数据上；个人所得税同比涨幅持平，持续高于整体税收同比增 速，主要源于股息红利所得税增加。其他税种中，消费税同比涨幅收窄；证券 交易印花税同比涨幅收窄，主要受高基数拖累；车辆购置税同比降幅继续扩大。 全年来看，公共财政收入负增长主要是非税收入的拖累，主要源于 2024 年一 次性安排中央单位上缴专项收益抬高基数。税收收入实现正增长，月度同比增 速呈现逐步由负转正的特征，下半年通胀改善对税收读数形成拉动。结构上， 三大主力税种（增值税、企业所得税和个人所得税）均由 2024 年的负增长转 为正增长；装备制造业、现代服务业等行业税收表现良好；权益市场热度较高， 带动对个人所得税、证券交易印花税收入大幅改善。 从预算完成比例来看，2025 年完成全年国家一般公共预算收入的 98.3%，低 于过去 5 年的平均水平。 公共财政支出：重在民生、科技和环保 2025 年 12 月，公共财政支出累计同比增速较 11 月回落 0.4 个百分点，12 月 支 ...

基金周报 证监会修订信息披露规则，宽基指数资金延续大幅流出 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2026 年 2 月 2 日 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150525070001 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 《公开募集证券投资基金业 绩比较基准指引》正式发布 ——公募基金周报 2025.01.26 首只千亿黄金 ETF 诞生，宽 基指数资金大幅流出——公 募基金周报 2025.01.19 市场成交火热，华泰柏瑞沪 深 300ETF 分红创历史新高— —公募基金周报 2026. 01.12 核心观点： ⚫ 市场回顾： 上周统计区间为 2026 年 1 月 26 日至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，权益市场主要指数 多数下跌，其中，跌幅最大的是中小板指，下跌 3.78%。31 个申万一级行 业中 10 个行业上涨，涨幅前五的行业是石油石化、通信、煤炭、有色金属 和农林牧渔；跌幅前五的行业是国防军工、电气设备、汽车、计算机和综 合。 ⚫ 公募基金市场概况： 市场热点方面 ...

宏观数据点评报告 产需两端双双走弱，压制制造业景气 ――2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据点评 | 究 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150514080001 | 2026 | 2 | 2 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] | [Table_Summary] | 证券分析师 | 事件：2026 | 年 | 月 | 日，统计局公布了 | 数据，1 | 月制造业采购经理指 | 1 | 31 | PMI | 宋亦威 | | 数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 | 产出指数分别为 | 49.3%、49.4%和 | PMI | 022-23861608 | 49.8%。 | | | | | | | | | SAC NO:S1150514080001 | songyw@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | 点评：（1）制造业景气水平回落至 49.3%，产需两端双双走弱。具体而言， ...

证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.02） 宏观及策略研究 地缘再起波澜，政策抢抓内需——2026 年 1 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 债市延续偏强震荡——利率债周报 行业研究 石药集团达成大额合作，关注创新药产业链——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2026/02/02） 晨会纪要（2026/02/02） 宏观及策略研究 地缘再起波澜，政策抢抓内需——2026 年 1 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、海外经济及政策环境 美国方面，整体经济预计在特朗普减税政策以及科技企业资本开支的推动下延续 2025 年底的强韧态势。 ...

行 行业周报 业 石药集团达成大额合作，关注创新药产业链 研 究 ——医药生物行业周报 分析师： 侯雅楠 SAC NO： S1150524120001 2026 年 01 月 31 日 证券分析师 侯雅楠 行业要闻 医药生物 投资要点： 022-23839211 机遇——医药生物行业周报 houyn@bhzq.com 《中华人民共和国药品管理法实施条例》发布。 | | | | 恒瑞医药 券 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 药明康德 | 增持 | 近三月行业指数走势图 公司公告 研子究行助业理评级 （1）先声药业：与勃林格殷格翰就 SIM0709（TL1A/IL-23p19 双特异性抗体） 订立独家授权许可协议； 证 重点品种推荐 （2）石药集团：①与阿斯利康就创新长效多肽药物开发签订战略合作与授权 协议；②SYS6055 注射液在中国获临床试验批准； 券 研 药明康德 增持 （3）恒瑞医药：①药品上市许可申请获受理；②获得药物临床试验批准通知 书；③药物纳入突破性治疗品种名单。 行情回顾 究 报 告 本周（2026/1/23-2026/1/29）上证综指上涨 0.86%，深证成指下跌 0.19% ...

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益周报 债市延续偏强震荡 | ――利率债周报 | 益 | 分析师： | 王哲语 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150524070001 | 2026 | 1 | 30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研 | [Table_Author] | 统计区间：2026 年 1 月 23 日至 2026 年 1 月 29 日 | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | 资金价格：MLF | 超量 | 亿元续作 | [Table_IndInvest] |  | 7000 | 王哲语 | 究 | 022-23839051 | | | | | | 统计期内央行公开市场净投放超 | 亿元，其中，MLF | 操作规模达到 | 9000 | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | 亿元，超量 | 亿元续作。此外，本月 | 和 | 买断式逆回购 | 9000 | 7000 | 3M | 6M | | 合计净投放 | 亿，呵护 ...

宏 观 研 究 | | | 宏观经济分析报告 chunj 地缘再起波澜，政策抢抓内需 ――2026 年 1 月宏观经济月报 | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： 周喜[Table_IndInvest] | 周喜 |  | SAC NO： 海外经济及政策环境 | S1150511010017 | 2026 | 年 | 1 月 | 30 | 日 | 美国方面，整体经济预计在特朗普减税政策以及科技企业资本开支的推动 下延续 2025 年底的强韧态势。美联储在最新一次议息会议上基于就业市场 下行风险和通胀上行风险均有减弱的判断如期将政策利率维持不变，后续 通胀能否持续缓和或成为再次降息的重要依据。当下反倒是白宫方面对于 现任理事的指控和对于新任联储主席的提名或成为短期影响市场降息预期 的关键。目前普遍预计再次降息的时间节点在年中前后。欧洲方面，岁末 年初欧元区经济仍处在弱复苏中，但前瞻指标有走软趋势。格陵兰岛问题 成为近期乃至未来一段时间内欧洲经济面临的最大不确 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations. This decision reflects a belief that the labor market may be stabilizing, despite low job additions, and current inflation remains slightly above the 2% target due to tariffs [2][3] - In the past five trading days (January 23 to January 29), major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.86% and the ChiNext Index falling by 0.73%. The average daily trading volume increased to 3.08 trillion yuan, up by 323.69 billion yuan compared to the previous five-day average [2][3] - The market is expected to continue its consolidation phase, with structural opportunities being the focus. Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) due to ongoing capital expansion in AI, and the non-ferrous metals sector supported by supply-demand gaps [3] Industry Research - The AI application landscape is evolving, highlighted by the overseas AI assistant Clawdbot gaining attention for its capabilities, including local deployment and interaction through popular messaging apps. This indicates a potential acceleration in the commercialization of AI applications [4][5] - Recent developments in the AI sector include Tencent's push into AI social networking with a new feature distributing 1 billion red envelopes during the Spring Festival, and the first successful deployment of a large model in space [5][6] - The domestic cloud computing sector is expected to see a rebound in capital expenditure as supply constraints ease, and the introduction of new AI models is anticipated to drive further technological advancements [6]

Market Review - In the past five trading days (January 23 to January 29), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.86%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.73%. The CSI 300 increased by 0.64%, and the CSI 500 rose by 1.55% [4][24]. Federal Reserve Policy - On January 29, the Federal Reserve held its January meeting and maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations. This decision reflects a belief that the labor market may be stabilizing, despite low job additions, and that current inflation remains slightly above the 2% target due to tariff impacts. Future monetary policy will be determined based on subsequent data and risk assessments, without a preset path for rate cuts. Market expectations indicate two potential rate cuts by the Fed within the year, possibly starting in June [26]. Market Strategy - The short-term market continues to experience fluctuations amid ongoing net outflows from ETFs. Strong sectors such as AI and non-ferrous metals are showing performance, while relatively low-positioned resource and consumer sectors are beginning to rotate. Despite the overall index being in a consolidation phase, active trading supports localized profit opportunities. Looking ahead, the expectation of a "slow bull" market suggests that the index may continue to consolidate, with a focus on capturing structural opportunities. Key areas to watch include: (1) Continued expansion of domestic and international AI capital and the acceleration of domestic substitution, which may catalyze investment opportunities in the TMT sector; (2) Investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector supported by the weakening international status of the US dollar and frequent geopolitical conflicts; (3) Rotation opportunities in resource and consumer sectors that have previously lagged [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the computer industry and an "Accumulate" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI applications, including Tencent's new AI social feature "Yuanbao" and the global first deployment of a large model in space by Guoxing Aerospace [12][13] - The domestic cloud computing sector is expected to see a rebound in capital expenditure due to easing chip supply constraints, while AI applications are anticipated to reach a commercialization inflection point earlier than expected [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with strong AI technology implementation capabilities and scene adaptation advantages [26] Industry News - Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" has launched a new version that includes various social features, aiming to create a multi-user social space [12] - The first successful deployment of a large model in space was achieved by Guoxing Aerospace, marking a significant milestone in AI technology [13] - Domestic GPU company Suiruan Technology has received approval for its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 6 billion yuan [14] Company Announcements - Dahua Technology reported a total revenue of 32.743 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.75% [15] - Yimikang expects a net profit of 0.25 to 0.37 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 128.69% to 142.46% [17] - Glodon anticipates a net profit of 3.76 to 4.26 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 50.15% to 70.11% [18] Market Review - From January 22 to January 28, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.11%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry index decreased by 0.35% [19] - The report notes mixed performance among the Shenwan Computer sub-industries, with horizontal software leading at 2.39% [19] Weekly Strategy - The report suggests that the domestic computing power industry is likely to accelerate due to policy support and technological advancements in AI [25] - The anticipated launch of DeepSeek V4 during the Lunar New Year is expected to drive a new round of technological iteration in domestic large models [25] - The report encourages attention to companies that demonstrate strong capabilities in AI technology implementation and scene adaptation [26]