晨会纪要（2025/4/8） [Table_Conta 编辑人 ctor] 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 受外盘大幅波动影响，A 股市场出现异动——A 股市场异动点评 行业专题评述 美国加征关税力度超预期，将加速推动扩大内需——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业周报 金融工程研究 多只红利指数即将发布，主动权益基金仓位下降——公募基金周报 主要指数多数调整，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 4 月月报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 受外盘大幅波动影响，A 股市场出现异动——A 股市场异动点评 晨会纪要（2025/4/8） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 投资要点： 1、4 月 7 日，A 股市场出现异动。重要指数在全球 ...

晨会纪要（2025/4/7） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 宏观及策略分析 外部不确定性暂时落地，关注稳内需增量举措——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 外部不确定性暂时落地，关注稳内需增量举措——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 投资要点： 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（3 月 28 日-4 月 3 日），重要指数纷纷收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 0.94%，创业板指收跌 3.72%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.80%，中证 500 收跌 1.88%。成交量方面有所 ...

Core Viewpoints - The excavator sales show a significant recovery trend, with domestic market sales reaching 17,000 units in January-February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.40% [4] - The government work report emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to drive demand for construction machinery through urban renewal and old community renovations [4] - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with Tesla planning to produce 5,000 humanoid robots in 2025 and aiming for a production target of 50,000 units by 2026 [4] Market Overview - From March 2 to April 1, 2025, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.06%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector fell by 0.83%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.77 percentage points [3] - As of April 1, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 28.47 times, with a valuation premium of 140.80% compared to the CSI 300 [3] Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performers included Zhejiang Huaye (up 160.61%), Klete (up 107.01%), and Changfu Co. (up 92.60%), while stocks like Xinyuan Technology (down 36.01%) and *ST Xinyan (down 32.60%) faced significant declines [3] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the machinery equipment industry and recommends "overweight" ratings for companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [5]

Group 1: Semir Apparel (002563) 2024 Annual Report - The company reported a revenue of 14.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.137 billion yuan, up 1.42% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share is 0.42 yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 3.5 yuan per 10 shares [2] - In Q4 2024, the company saw a significant improvement in performance, with revenue growth of 9.76% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 32.07% year-on-year. The company's inventory turnover rate improved to 2.64 times, and the days of inventory turnover decreased by 19 days to 140 days [3] - The company has successfully opened over 500 "New Semir" stores nationwide and achieved a threefold increase in the scale of popular products. The children's clothing brand, Balabala, achieved a revenue of 10.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.55% [3][4] Group 2: China Aluminum (601600) 2024 Annual Report - The company achieved a revenue of 237.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% year-on-year [9] - The production of metallurgical-grade alumina increased by 1.2% to 16.87 million tons, while the production of primary aluminum rose by 12.1% to 7.61 million tons. The average price of domestic alumina increased by 39.9% year-on-year [10] - The company is actively expanding its resource base, adding 73.55 million tons of new resources in 2024, and has initiated multiple new projects, including clean energy initiatives that account for 45.5% of its electrolytic aluminum production [10][11] Group 3: Public Fund Market Overview - In March, 77 new funds were issued with a total scale of 63.583 billion yuan, including 12 active equity funds with a scale of 3.698 billion yuan. The active equity fund segment saw a significant increase in popularity [15] - The average performance of various fund types showed that commodity funds had the highest positive return rate at 88.57%, while large-scale equity funds performed better than smaller ones [15] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 39.155 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume reaching 2.524 trillion yuan [16] Group 4: Equity Market Trends - Major equity indices continued to decline, with the historical percentile of price-to-earnings ratios for the ChiNext and Shanghai Composite Index dropping significantly [18] - The real estate sector showed the highest valuation percentile at 93.3%, indicating potential correction risks, while several sectors, including agriculture and non-bank financials, had low valuation percentiles below 20% [18] - The overall performance of equity funds was poor, with the average net value of mixed equity funds declining by 0.52% [18]

Macro and Strategy Analysis - The report discusses the evolution of fiscal policy in major economies, particularly the United States, highlighting a shift from laissez-faire to state intervention and from balanced budgets to functional finance [2] - It outlines four phases of U.S. fiscal policy: pre-1930 classical economics, Keynesianism from 1930 to 1960, new classical economics from 1970 to 2000, and a return to Keynesianism from 2000 to present [2] - The report notes that since the Great Depression, U.S. fiscal policy has transitioned from a "small government" approach to a more expansive fiscal policy, especially post-2008, with increased government spending and support for social welfare [2] Industry Review - The report highlights the digital transformation in the light industry, emphasizing the potential for leading companies to enhance their intelligence capabilities [4] - It mentions that in January-February 2025, the paper and paper products industry achieved a total profit of 5.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7% [4] - Key announcements include Jia Yi Co. projecting a 55.27% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, and Wei Xing Co. expecting a 25.48% increase in the same period [4] Market Performance - From March 24 to March 28, the light manufacturing industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.83 percentage points, while the textile and apparel industry lagged by 2.39 percentage points [6] - The report indicates that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a digital transformation implementation plan for the light industry, aiming for significant advancements by 2030 [6] Financial Engineering Research - The report outlines the regulatory evolution of quantitative trading in China, noting that as of March 21, 2025, there are 646 quantitative funds with a total scale of 234.577 billion yuan [8] - It highlights that index-enhanced funds account for 66.24% of the total scale of quantitative funds, with a significant number tracking the CSI 300 index [8] Credit Bond Report - As of March 28, 2025, the report indicates a general decline in issuance rates for credit bonds, with a net financing increase in short-term financing bonds and corporate bonds [11] - It suggests that the current market conditions favor a strategy of increasing allocations to short-term bonds while monitoring the impact of growth policies on the bond market [11]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening, with policy fluctuations impacting corporate and consumer expectations, leading to a "stagflation" scenario [2][3] - The Federal Reserve maintains a neutral policy stance, with market expectations for interest rate cuts potentially starting in June [2] - In the Eurozone, market risk appetite has increased due to expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine and fiscal expansion in Germany, despite the European Central Bank's recent rate cuts [3] Group 2: Domestic Economic Environment - China's economy started the year steadily, with government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand due to weaker export growth [3][4] - Positive macro policies are needed to boost consumer confidence, local government infrastructure investment, and corporate profits [3] - The government has prioritized expanding domestic demand, with fiscal policies showing a proactive stance, although challenges remain in fiscal revenue [4] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the bond market faced significant supply pressure, with a total issuance of 7.6 trillion yuan, much higher than previous years [6] - The bond market experienced an upward adjustment in interest rates, with a notable shift from "loose monetary" to "tight monetary" policies [6][7] - The outlook for Q2 suggests potential for interest rate recovery, particularly in short-term instruments, with monetary policy and funding conditions being key focus areas [8] Group 4: Credit Bond Market Insights - The report highlights the relationship between credit bond yields and interest rate bonds, indicating that credit spreads reflect the strength of credit bonds relative to interest rate bonds [9] - Historical trends show that credit bond yields are currently at low levels, with the need for more active trading strategies to enhance returns [11][12] - The report anticipates continued downward pressure on credit bond yields, with fluctuations expected but not significant in magnitude [12] Group 5: Fund Management and Investment Strategies - The report discusses the importance of public funds in market pricing and asset allocation, emphasizing the need for a high-frequency, dynamic model to estimate fund positions [14][15] - Various models, including Lasso and Kalman Filter, were tested for their effectiveness in estimating fund positions, with Lasso performing best for equity funds [15] - Recent fund position estimates indicate a correlation between fund adjustments and market movements, highlighting the impact of market volatility on fund strategies [15]

Macro and Strategy Analysis - The macroeconomic environment showed a stable start in January-February 2025 despite external adverse impacts and a high base from the previous year, with policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption [2][3] - The liquidity situation in the macro environment remains tight, with the People's Bank of China maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decisions [2][3] - A-shares market liquidity has improved since the beginning of the year, driven by active themes and increased trading volumes, particularly in technology sectors, supported by favorable policies for long-term capital inflow [2][3] A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market will enter a verification phase with the upcoming Q1 earnings reports, which will provide important guidance for annual performance expectations [3] - In Q2, sectors with relatively certain earnings or high dividend yields, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, home appliances, and banking, are recommended for attention [3] - The consumer and TMT sectors may present thematic investment opportunities due to improved market risk appetite driven by expectations of overseas liquidity easing [3] Industrial Enterprise Performance - In January-February 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a reduction of 3.0 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, with improvements in volume and gross margin being the main drivers [4][6] - The industrial added value grew by 5.9% year-on-year, and the operating income increased by 2.8%, indicating a recovery in profitability [6][7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a double-digit profit growth, reflecting the positive impact of previous policies aimed at vehicle replacement [6][7] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market indices experienced adjustments, with the margin trading balance slightly decreasing to 1,923.58 billion yuan, a reduction of 20.39 billion yuan from the previous week [9][10] - The sectors with significant net buying in margin trading included basic chemicals, automotive, and social services, while the computer, electronics, and communications sectors saw less activity [10]

Industry Overview - The global refined copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 19,000 tons by January 2025 according to ICSG [3] - The U.S. government is considering using wartime powers to increase production of critical minerals such as rare earths [3] Company News - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals' subsidiary, Guangxi Gaofeng Mining Co., is investing in the deep mining project of ore bodies 100 and 105 [3] Weekly Industry Strategy and Stock Recommendations - **Steel**: As the peak season characteristics become more evident, steel inventory is expected to continue decreasing. If the fundamentals of steel improve, prices may be supported, but attention should be paid to downstream demand and macroeconomic factors [3] - **Copper**: The copper market remains tight, with a projected supply shortage of 19,000 tons by January 2025. Domestic macro policies are supportive of copper prices, but high prices may suppress downstream demand. The direction of U.S. tariff policies is also a concern [3] - **Aluminum**: The EU may tighten aluminum import controls, potentially impacting domestic aluminum exports. Current expectations of a loose domestic macro economy and solar energy installation demand are supportive of aluminum prices [4] - **Gold**: U.S. tariff policies continue to disrupt the market, while geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Middle East instability, are supporting gold prices [4] - **Lithium**: With lithium salt plants resuming normal production in March, supply is expected to increase. Policies promoting "old-for-new" exchanges and charging infrastructure subsidies may stimulate downstream demand, but an oversupply situation is likely to persist [4] Investment Strategy - **Copper/Aluminum**: Continuous disruptions in copper supply are expected to support prices, while new projects in alumina production may expand profits for electrolytic aluminum plants. Attention should be paid to domestic policies driving demand [4] - **Gold**: Recent increases in gold prices are linked to risk aversion and central bank purchases. Long-term factors such as high U.S. debt and deficit rates, potential re-inflation risks, and complex global geopolitical situations are favorable for gold prices [4] Ratings - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. It also maintains "Buy" ratings for companies including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the general equipment sector is positive, while specialized equipment and transportation equipment are rated neutral. The engineering machinery and automation equipment sectors are rated positively as well [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that ball screws are a core component of precision transmission with a wide range of applications, particularly in machine tools, robotics, and the automotive industry. The demand for ball screws is expected to increase significantly due to the growth in high-end machine tools and the development of humanoid robots [1][3][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Ball Screws as Core Precision Transmission Components - Ball screws are essential for converting rotational motion into linear motion and are categorized into sliding, rolling, and hydrostatic types. Rolling ball screws are favored for their high efficiency and precision, making them widely used in various applications [1][10]. 2. Positive Outlook on Downstream Demand - China is a major consumer market for ball screws, with a supply-demand gap of 4.92 million sets in 2023. The machine tool industry is the largest application area for ball screws, which are critical for machine tool feed mechanisms. The automotive sector, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles, is also expected to drive demand for ball screws [3][27][35]. 2.1 Humanoid Robots as a Growth Point - The production roadmap for humanoid robots is becoming clearer, with Tesla planning to launch its humanoid robot by 2026. Each robot is expected to use 14 ball screws, indicating a significant potential market size for ball screws as production scales up [3][31][34]. 2.2 Growth Driven by High-End Electric Vehicles - The rapid development of domestic electric vehicles is expected to increase the demand for ball screws used in steering and braking systems. The market for electric power steering systems (R-EPS) and electronic mechanical braking systems (EMB) is anticipated to grow, further driving the need for ball screws [3][35][38]. 2.3 Benefiting from High-End Machine Tool Development - The machine tool industry is receiving strong policy support, and as a key component of high-end equipment, ball screws are expected to benefit from the increasing domestic production of high-end machine tools. The market for five-axis CNC machine tools is projected to grow significantly, further enhancing the demand for ball screws [3][42][51]. 3. Company Profiles 3.1 Best - Best Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. focuses on precision components and intelligent equipment, with a revenue of 1.042 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.52% [52][53]. 3.2 Hengli Hydraulic - Hengli Hydraulic Co., Ltd. specializes in hydraulic transmission control systems, achieving a revenue of 6.936 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.32% [55][56]. 3.3 Wuzhou Xinchun - Wuzhou Xinchun Group Co., Ltd. is involved in the production of bearings and automotive parts, reporting a revenue of 2.473 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.76% year-on-year [57][58].

Macro and Strategy Analysis - In January-February 2025, national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, while expenditure was 45,096 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [3][4] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9%, with corporate income tax down 10.4%, indicating pressure on corporate profitability [3][4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11%, likely due to governments activating state-owned resources [3][4] Industry Review - The solid-state battery industry is gaining momentum, with a focus on different technological routes in China and abroad [7][8] - Tianjin is actively supporting the development of the new energy vehicle and battery industry, aiming to enhance production capacity and transition to solid-state battery technologies [7][8] Company Event Review: Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. - In 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved revenue of 213.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.37%, and a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% [9][10] - The company reported record high production for copper and cobalt, with copper production at 650,200 tons, a 54.97% increase [10][12] - Major construction projects are on track, with plans for further expansion in copper production capacity [12] Company Event Review: Haomai Technology - In 2024, Haomai Technology reported revenue of 8.813 billion yuan, a 22.99% increase, and a net profit of 2.011 billion yuan, up 24.77% [14][15] - The company is increasing R&D investment, with a focus on three main business segments showing strong growth [16][17] - The international capacity construction is progressing, with new factories in Thailand and Mexico enhancing production capabilities [17][18] Company Event Review: Zijin Mining Group - Zijin Mining reported 2024 revenue of 303.64 billion yuan, a 3.49% increase, and a net profit of 32.051 billion yuan, up 51.76% [19][20] - The company achieved stable growth in copper and gold production, with copper production at 1.07 million tons [20][21] - Plans for 2025 include further increases in copper and gold production, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency [21]