晨会纪要（2025/09/08） 编辑人 政策温和巩固经济——2025 年 9 月宏观经济月报 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.08） 宏观及策略研究 固定收益研究 债市逆风，静候转机——利率债 9 月投资策略展望 行业研究 WCLC 即将召开，关注创新产业链机遇——医药生物行业 9 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要（2025/09/08） 宏观及策略研究 政策温和巩固经济——2025 年 9 月宏观经济月报 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、海外经济及政策环境 美国方面，通胀和就业间的"风险平衡正在发生转变"，9 月货币政策转向几成定局。短期重点关 ...

Industry Overview - The report highlights the upcoming World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) from September 6-9, 2025, in Barcelona, Spain, suggesting a focus on related corporate data updates and outcomes [11] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, emphasizing opportunities in innovative drug and medical device sectors, particularly in light of expected interest rate cuts and optimized procurement rules [11][74] Industry News - In August, the National Medical Insurance Administration issued the "Interim Measures for Disease-Specific Payment Management," which clarifies policies related to disease-specific payments and aims to enhance transparency in budget management [18] - The report notes that 535 drug generic names passed the formal review for inclusion in the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance and commercial health insurance innovative drug directories, indicating ongoing regulatory support for the industry [19] Industry Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for healthcare in July was 100.5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [20] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for pharmaceutical manufacturing in July was 97.6, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% [29] - Cumulative revenue for the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry from January to July was 1,401.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while cumulative profit totaled 194.82 billion, down 2.6% [31] Company Announcements - Heng Rui Medicine reported a 15.88% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling approximately 15.76 billion, with a net profit of approximately 4.45 billion, reflecting a 29.67% increase [57] - The company received orphan drug designation from the FDA for its product, indicating strong potential for market support and development [58] Market Review - In August 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 15.32%. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a 2.61% increase, with most sub-sectors performing positively [59] - As of August 31, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry was 31.18, with a valuation premium of 147% compared to the CSI 300 index [63]

Macro and Strategy Research - The liquidity environment is expected to improve, providing a mid-term layout window for the A-share market, with a focus on strengthening domestic circulation as a key policy direction [2][3] - The capital market is experiencing a liquidity-driven trend, with increased trading volume and a rise in margin financing balances, indicating a positive influx of funds into the market [3] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry reported a revenue of CNY 945.23 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.16%, while net profit increased by 157.66% to CNY 13.14 billion, indicating significant improvement in overall performance [8] - The non-ferrous metal industry achieved a revenue of CNY 1,819.66 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 6.49%, with net profit rising by 36.55% to CNY 95.36 billion, reflecting strong performance [10] Light Industry and Textile - The light industry manufacturing sector reported a revenue of CNY 297.01 billion in H1 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.01%, but net profit decreased by 23.14% to CNY 13.95 billion, indicating pressure on profitability [15] - The textile and apparel sector saw a revenue decline of 5.16% and a net profit decrease of 8.40% in H1 2025, highlighting challenges in the market [16] Pharmaceutical and Biotech - The pharmaceutical and biotech sector experienced a revenue decline in H1 2025, with innovative drugs and CXO segments showing strong performance, while medical devices faced pressure [18][19] - The chemical pharmaceutical segment reported a revenue of CNY 136.94 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, but net profit increased by 9.0%, indicating a recovery in profitability [19]

融资融券周报 主要指数多数上涨，两融余额继续上升 ――融资融券周报 | 分析师：王雪莹 | SAC NO：S1150525020001 2025 年 9 月 4 日 | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师 | 核心观点： | | 王[Table_IndInvest] 雪莹 | | |  022-23839121 | 市场概况 | | wangxy4430@bhzq.com  | 上周（8 月 27 日-9 月 2 日）A 股市场主要指数多数上涨，其中创业板 | | | 指涨幅最大，上涨了 4.74%；上证综跌幅最大，下跌了 0.26%。此外， | | | 深证成指上涨 0.65%，科创 50 上涨 4.52%，沪深 300 上涨 0.85%，上 | | | 证 上涨 0.78%，中证 下跌 0.03%。 50 500 | |  | 9 月 2 日，沪深两市两融余额为 22,811.21 亿元，较上周增加 808.89 亿 | | | 元。其中融资余额为 22,650.35 亿元，较上周增加 802.55 亿元；融券 | | | 余额为 160.85 亿元，较上周增加 6.34 亿元。每日平均参与 ...

Group 1: Metal Industry Insights - The steel industry is expected to see a rebound in demand in September, traditionally a peak consumption month, with potential price stability due to supply constraints from production limits and maintenance in regions like Tangshan [2][4] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and potential demand recovery, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting which may influence price movements [2][5] - Aluminum prices are anticipated to remain stable, with demand expected to improve in the peak season, while supply is expected to hold steady [2][5] - Gold prices may see a moderate increase if inflation data meets expectations and employment data is weak, particularly ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting [3][7] - The rare earth market is experiencing increased overseas demand due to export controls, with potential price growth in September if overall demand remains strong [4][7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - For the steel sector, the "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually improve the oversupply situation, with a focus on green and low-carbon transformation as a key driver for future growth [4][5] - In the copper sector, the tight supply situation is expected to support prices, and the "anti-involution" policy may improve the processing sector, making it a favorable investment area [5] - The aluminum sector is projected to benefit from new project capacities and supportive policies, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong resource guarantees and environmental standards [5] - The rare earth sector is viewed positively due to regulatory changes and the strategic value of resources, with a recommendation to focus on companies involved in resource extraction and processing [7] Group 3: Machinery and Equipment Sector - The machinery and equipment sector has shown strong performance, with the industry index rising 12.67% from August 3 to September 2, outperforming the broader market [8] - The demand for construction machinery is expected to continue growing due to ongoing infrastructure projects and improved market conditions, particularly in the domestic market [8][9] - The humanoid robotics sector is gaining traction with advancements in computing platforms, indicating a critical phase for industry development and investment opportunities [9]

晨会纪要（2025/09/03） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.03） 宏观及策略研究 全 A 净利边际回落，新动能领域相对占优——A 股市场 2025 年二季报业绩综 述 A 股流动性的增量与平衡——A 股市场专题策略报告 固定收益研究 高等级长债凸显配置价值，但需把握好节奏——信用债 9 月投资策略展望 基金研究 证 双创板块成交火热，大盘成长风格表现突出——公募基金 9 月月报 沪市 ETF 规模超 3.7 万亿元，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基金周报 券 行业研究 津医卫药名远扬，守正创新起征程——天津市中医药专题报告 研 究 电动自行车新国标实施，看好包装纸价格继续上行——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业 9 月投资策略展望 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 9 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理， ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1, 2025, allowing old standard vehicles to be sold for an additional three months [10] - Leading paper companies have announced price increases, with paper prices expected to rise again in September [11] - From January to July, the retail sales of furniture increased by 22.60% year-on-year, while the revenue of the furniture manufacturing industry decreased by 5.40% [12][31] Group 2: Company Announcements - Oppein Home's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.88% in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 8.241 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.98% year-on-year [46] - Aorijin's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 64.66% in the first half of 2025, with revenue of approximately 1.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.74% [46] Group 3: Market Performance - From August 1 to August 31, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.93 percentage points, with a return of 6.40% compared to the CSI 300's 10.33% [47] - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed the CSI 300 index by 7.62 percentage points, with a return of 2.71% [55] Group 4: Monthly Strategy - The implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles is expected to enhance the competitive advantage of leading companies in the industry [57] - The price of corrugated paper has increased by 200 yuan/ton since August 1, and the price of boxboard has increased by 50 yuan/ton [59] - The domestic pet industry continues to develop steadily, with leading companies showing significant growth in their half-year reports [60]

晨会纪要（2025/09/02） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.02） 宏观及策略研究 结构性因素拉动下，制造业景气边际改善——2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据点评 公司研究 业绩增速表现亮眼，聚焦机器人传感器领域——柯力传感（603662）2025 年 中报点评 主要产品量价齐升，增量项目持续推进——紫金矿业（601899）2025 年半年 报点评 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/09/02） 宏观及策略研究 价格带动业绩增长，资源基础继续夯实——中金黄金（600489）2025 年半年 报点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 结构性因素拉动下，制造业景气边际改善——2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The US durable goods orders showed a negative growth for the second consecutive month, while core capital goods orders turned positive, indicating stable investment demand from enterprises [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials have differing views on inflation trends, suggesting a pause in rate cuts in September, with potential for easing later in the year due to economic uncertainties [3] - Domestic industrial enterprises' revenue growth continues to decline, but profit margins are improving, supported by previous "anti-involution" policies [3] Fixed Income Research - The bond market experienced a slight recovery before weakening again, with investor confidence remaining low [4] - The central bank's net injection of 167.6 billion yuan in the open market indicates a mixed performance in funding prices, with a divergence between cross-month and non-cross-month funding rates [5] - The supply pressure in the primary market for government bonds is expected to decrease in the remaining months of the year [6] Company Research: Haomai Technology (002595) - The company reported a revenue of 5.265 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.25%, and a net profit of 1.197 billion yuan, up 24.65% [8] - The company's core businesses are performing well, with significant growth in the CNC machine tool segment, which saw a revenue increase of 145.08% [9] - The new electric heating vulcanization machine has shown significant advantages and has received orders totaling 135 million yuan [10] Company Research: China Aluminum (601600) - The company achieved a revenue of 116.392 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5.12% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.071 billion yuan, up 0.81% [12] - Production of alumina and primary aluminum increased, with alumina production reaching 8.6 million tons, a 4.88% increase [14] - The company has improved its resource self-sufficiency rate and has accelerated the production of key projects [14]

Market Overview - In the past five trading days (August 22 to August 28), major indices have shown gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.92% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.93% [2] - The trading volume has continued to expand, with a total turnover of 14.50 trillion yuan, averaging 2.90 trillion yuan per day, an increase of 414.76 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among the sectors, the communication, electronics, and computer industries led the gains, while textiles, coal, and pharmaceuticals experienced declines [2] Data Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the decline in profits for industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in the first seven months of the year [3] - The industrial added value growth rate has slowed down due to factors such as "anti-involution" and extreme weather, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has also decreased due to external uncertainties affecting consumer goods prices [3] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises has improved, contributing to the narrowing of the profit decline [3] Policy Developments - On August 26, the State Council issued opinions on the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, with clear goals set for the next five years [4] - The initiative aims for an application penetration rate of over 70% by 2027 and over 90% by 2030, indicating a significant push for AI integration in various sectors [4] - The advancement of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative is expected to enhance the synergy between AI technology and downstream applications, benefiting computing power and various industries through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4] Investment Strategy - The continuation of liquidity inflows will be crucial for market development, with a positive outlook on overall liquidity under the policy to stabilize the capital market [4] - The current market has established a profit-making effect, which is conducive to the positive feedback loop of A-share liquidity, suggesting a valuation-driven market development process [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities are present in the TMT sector, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries, driven by the AI boom and other catalysts [5] - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from the stabilization of the capital market [5] - Opportunities in power equipment and certain resource products are anticipated due to capacity governance initiatives [5]