Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index [35] Core Views - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue growing due to favorable domestic construction activity and the implementation of significant investment projects as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][27] - In November, the production of industrial robots reached approximately 70,200 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.60%, with expectations for total production to exceed 700,000 units in 2025 [2][27] - The report maintains "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [2][27] Industry News - In November, sales of various types of forklifts reached 119,749 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [10] - The domestic sales of forklifts for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 843,005 units, reflecting a growth of 14.3% [10] - Beijing Zhuoyue Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. successfully completed a strategic financing round of 200 million yuan [11] - Hitachi Construction Machinery will change its name to LANDCROS, pending shareholder approval [11] Industry Data - As of December 12, 2025, the comprehensive steel price index (CSPI) was recorded at 91.76 [12] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices were reported at $56.82 and $60.56 per barrel, respectively, as of December 16, 2025 [13] Company Announcements - Suzhou Sileck Precision Equipment Co., Ltd. announced a partnership with investment institutions to enhance project reserves and overall competitiveness [17] - Wuxi Chemical Equipment Co., Ltd. plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in South Korea with an investment of up to $100,000 [18] Market Review - From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.19%, while the machinery equipment sector declined by 2.95%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.76 percentage points [19] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE, TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 43.94 times, with a valuation premium of 218.89% relative to the CSI 300 [20]

Macro and Strategy Research - The November 2025 economic data shows that the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 5.0% and previous value of 4.9% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 2.9% [5] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to -2.6%, worse than the expected -2.3% and previous -1.7% [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds increased by 1 to 4 basis points, while the overall credit bond issuance scale grew [8] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with company bonds and medium-term notes seeing positive net financing [8] - The secondary market for credit bonds experienced a rise in transaction volume, with most credit bond yields declining [8] Fund Research - The total scale of the CSI A500 ETF surpassed 210 billion yuan, with notable performance in the communication and defense industries [11] - The average return of equity funds increased by 0.83%, with a positive return ratio of 57.63% [12] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 12.827 billion yuan, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs [13] Industry Research - The steel industry faces weakening demand as the off-season progresses, leading to downward pressure on steel prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable due to tightening supply forecasts for 2026, supported by macroeconomic conditions [16] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to see stable profits due to strict domestic production limits, with demand driven by new energy vehicles [17] - Gold prices are influenced by U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors, with a long-term bullish outlook due to central bank purchases [18] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from export controls and strategic importance, with a focus on companies with strong resource and processing capabilities [18]

Economic Data Overview - In November 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.0% and previous value of 4.9%[2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 2.9%[2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -2.6%, worse than the expected -2.3% and previous -1.7%[2] Industrial Production Insights - The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value showed a slight slowdown compared to the previous value, with the monthly growth rate aligning with historical averages[3] - High-tech manufacturing sectors outperformed overall industrial growth, indicating a shift in production dynamics[3] - The annual industrial production growth rate is projected to stabilize around 5.8%, with potential constraints from "anti-involution" and a slight weakening in exports affecting December's production[3] Consumer Spending Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales in November was impacted by early online shopping promotions and diminishing subsidy effects, leading to a broader decline across most categories[4] - Notably, furniture, building materials, and home appliances were significantly affected, with automotive consumption dragging down overall growth by nearly 2 percentage points[4] - The annual retail sales growth is expected to be around 3.7%, with a focus on stimulating service consumption in the short term[4] Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, particularly in manufacturing, where negative growth persisted for five consecutive months[5] - Infrastructure investment showed signs of stabilization, with improvements in transportation and energy sectors, while water conservancy and public facilities continued to lag[5] - Real estate investment experienced a significant drop of -30.3% year-on-year, with ongoing declines in new construction and completion areas[5] Risk Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties may elevate market risk preferences, potentially disrupting economic stability[6] - Unexpected changes in economic conditions or policies could arise due to increasing volatility in overseas markets and domestic economic transitions[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the primary market, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with the issuance amount of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and commercial paper increasing, while that of enterprise bonds and private placement notes decreasing. The net financing of credit bonds also increased month - on - month, with corporate bonds and medium - term notes showing an increase in net financing, and the net financing of enterprise bonds and private placement notes being negative [2][14][60]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the trading volume of each variety increased. Most of the yields of credit bonds declined, and most of the credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds widened. Most spreads are at historical lows [2][19][60]. - From an absolute return perspective, the supply shortage and relatively strong allocation demand will drive the credit bond market to continue its recovery. In the long run, the yield is still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of most varieties has decreased, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. The coupon strategy can be moderately optimistic in the current allocation, and the trading strategy can remain optimistic [2][60]. - From a relative return perspective, although the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient at present, the probability of a one - sided correction in the short term is also low. Therefore, investors can still achieve the coupon strategy through credit downgrading and extending the duration according to their own capital characteristics, but they need to pay attention to the rhythm during the allocation [2][60]. - For real estate bonds, as the market gradually stabilizes, funds with high risk appetite can consider early layout, focusing on enterprises with outstanding performance in new financing and sales recovery. The focus of allocation is still on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Investors can extend the duration to increase returns and also appropriately play the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of bonds of over - sold real estate enterprises [3][65]. - For urban investment bonds, under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of default is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. Investors can consider a credit - downgrading strategy for the medium - and short - term in the allocation, and choose to extend the duration for high - grade bonds in the trading [4][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Situation - **Issuance and Maturity Scale**: From December 8th to December 14th, a total of 326 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 275.038 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.09%. The net financing of credit bonds was 73.256 billion yuan, an increase of 19.097 billion yuan month - on - month. By variety, the issuance of enterprise bonds was 0, with a net financing of - 7.287 billion yuan; corporate bonds issued 113 with an issuance amount of 78.848 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.17%, and a net financing of 25.131 billion yuan; medium - term notes issued 105 with an issuance amount of 94.198 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 52.96%, and a net financing of 41.148 billion yuan; commercial paper issued 92 with an issuance amount of 93.257 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.09%, and a net financing of 18.52 billion yuan; private placement notes issued 16 with an issuance amount of 8.735 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 28.25%, and a net financing of - 4.256 billion yuan [14]. - **Issuance Interest Rates**: The issuance guidance rates announced by the Dealers Association all increased, with an overall change range of 1 - 4 BP. By tenor, the 1 - year variety had a rate change range of 1 - 4 BP, the 3 - year variety 2 - 4 BP, the 5 - year variety 2 - 3 BP, and the 7 - year variety 1 - 3 BP. By rating, the key AAA - rated and AAA - rated varieties had a rate change range of 1 - 3 BP, the AA + - rated variety 2 - 4 BP, the AA - rated variety 3 - 4 BP, and the AA - - rated variety 1 - 4 BP [15]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Market Trading Volume**: From December 8th to December 14th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 915.761 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.02%. The trading volumes of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 23.503 billion yuan, 357.775 billion yuan, 294.033 billion yuan, 183.844 billion yuan, and 56.606 billion yuan respectively [19]. - **Credit Spreads**: In medium - and short - term notes, most credit spreads widened. In enterprise bonds, most credit spreads also widened. In urban investment bonds, most credit spreads widened as well [22][29][37]. - **Term Spreads and Rating Spreads**: For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 2.44 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 2.88 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 4.68 BP. For 3 - year medium - and short - term notes, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 2.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged from the previous period [44]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics - **Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics**: From December 8th to December 14th, the rating (including outlook) of one company was adjusted, which was an upgrade. Xi'an High - tech Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd. was upgraded from AA + / Stable to AAA / Stable by Zhongzheng Pengyuan [57][58]. - **Default and Extension Bond Statistics**: There were no credit bond defaults or extensions from December 8th to December 14th [59]. 3.4 Investment Views The report reiterates the situation of the primary and secondary markets of credit bonds, and provides investment strategies from absolute and relative return perspectives. It also gives investment suggestions for real estate bonds and urban investment bonds [60].

Group 1: Financing Trends - In November, social financing (社融) increased by nearly 160 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by significant growth in corporate direct financing and off-balance-sheet financing[3] - Corporate direct financing rose by over 100 billion yuan, primarily due to the expansion of the sci-tech bond market, which saw net financing of 182.3 billion yuan in November, an increase of 100 billion yuan year-on-year[15] - Off-balance-sheet financing also increased by over 100 billion yuan, largely attributed to the upcoming implementation of revised trust company regulations[15] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Dynamics - In November, RMB loans decreased by 190 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weak demand for loans and a supply-side contraction due to financial institutions' "anti-involution" measures[4] - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 100 billion yuan, indicating a rise in short-term operational funding needs, while medium and long-term loans decreased by 40 billion yuan year-on-year[22] - Resident deposits showed a significant reduction, with both household and corporate deposits declining year-on-year, indicating a trend of deleveraging among residents[26] Group 3: Monetary Supply Metrics - M2 growth rate fell to 8% in November, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth rate decreased to 4.9%, down 1.3 percentage points[26] - The decline in M1 and M2 growth rates is attributed to reduced "loan creation deposits" and limited fiscal fund injections, with non-bank financial institution deposits also showing a year-on-year decrease[26] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The overall financial data for November indicates persistent weakness in private sector financing demand, with potential positive impacts from new policy financial tools expected to gradually materialize[6] - The high base effect from government bond financing is likely to continue to weigh on social financing growth, which may stabilize or slightly decline in the near term[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could significantly impact market financing demand and liquidity conditions[7]

晨会纪要（2025/12/16） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.16） 行业研究 内需主导奠定明年经济基调，短期关注出口链改善——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/16） 袁艺博（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150521120002） 投资要点： 1、行业要闻 （1）中央经济工作会议在北京举行； （2）《关于加强商务和金融协同更大力度提振消费的通知》正式出台。 2、重要公司公告 （1）健盛集团：公司在埃及投资 8.18 亿元进行产能建设； （2）日播时尚：拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式以 14.2 亿元购买茵地乐 71%股权。 3、行情回顾 行业研究 内需主导奠定明年经济基调，短期关注出口链改善——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 12 月 8 日至 12 月 12 日，轻工制造行业跑输沪深 300 指数 0.96 个百分点：SW 轻工制造（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][37] - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for specific companies including Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Explorer (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guibao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) [4][37] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver for the economy in the coming year, focusing on building a strong domestic market [10][36] - The report highlights the expectation of continued policies to stimulate consumption, particularly in the automotive, home appliance, and home furnishing sectors, as well as support for real estate [3][36] - The report notes that the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to improve export chain orders, suggesting a positive outlook for companies with strong overseas production capabilities and brand power [4][37] Industry News - The central economic work conference took place in Beijing, outlining key tasks for the upcoming year, including innovation-driven growth and coordinated development [10] - A notification was issued to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption [10] Important Company Announcements - Jian Sheng Group announced an investment of 818 million yuan in Egypt for capacity construction [28] - Ribo Fashion plans to acquire a 71% stake in Yindile through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment totaling 1.42 billion yuan [28] Market Review - From December 8 to December 12, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points, while the textile apparel sector lagged by 2.49 percentage points [28][32] - The report identifies the top-performing stocks in the light industry and textile sectors during the same period, highlighting significant fluctuations in individual stock performances [29][32]

| 行 | | | 行业周报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业 | | | 继续关注出口链机会，包装纸价格延续走强（更正） | | 研 | | | ——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | | 究 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | SAC NO： S1150521120002 2025 年 12 月 15 日 | | | 轻工制造 | | 投资要点： | | | 纺织服饰 | |  行业要闻 | | | | | （1）何立峰与美国财政部长贝森特、贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话。 | | | 证券分析师 | | （2）玖龙八大基地、联盛纸业、五洲特纸、湖北荣成、广东松炀更新涨价函。 | | | 袁艺博 | |  重要公司公告 | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | | | | 022-23839135 | | （1）博汇纸业：公司投资化学浆技改项目。 | | | | | （2）探路者：收购贝特莱电子 51%股权。 | | | 研子究行助业理评级 | |  行情回顾 | | | 家居用品 | 中性 | 月 日至 月 日，轻工制造行业跑赢沪深 指数 个百分点： 12 1 12 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, it's difficult to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Policy expectations, asset price - to - value ratios, and institutional behavior may still be the dominant factors. However, in the long run, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, with price signals being the key [25]. - After the clarification of the Central Economic Work Conference content, the bond market within the year will revolve around the equity market and institutional behavior, and is expected to be mainly volatile. The direction of the volatility is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect. If the sentiment in the equity market warms up, the yield curve may steepen and rise. It's not advisable to overly expect a front - running market [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event点评 - **Import and Export Data**: In November 2025, in US dollars, China's exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of $111.676 billion. The year - on - year export growth rebounded, and the influence of non - US regions continued to expand. Looking ahead, trade uncertainty has further eased, but the year - on - year export growth in December may decline slightly due to the higher base [9]. - **Inflation Data**: In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. The month - on - month decline in CPI was mainly affected by the seasonal cooling of the travel chain and the decline in energy prices; PPI continued to rise slightly month - on - month, mainly driven by the increased winter demand in industries such as coal and gas. It's expected that the month - on - month CPI growth rate in December will be around 0%, and PPI will continue to rise slightly month - on - month [10][11]. 3.2 Funding Price - Overnight funding rates dropped to 1.28%. During the statistical period, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 137.5 billion yuan. DR001 and DR007 remained at low levels, and certificate of deposit yields were basically flat. Since December, certificate of deposit yields have increased significantly due to the large maturity scale and high roll - over pressure on banks [12]. 3.3 Primary Market - The 2025 national debt issuance plan is about to be completed. During the statistical period, 96 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 454.2 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 68 billion yuan. On December 12, the last two national debts in the 2025 issuance plan will be issued, indicating that the supply of government bonds in 2025 is approaching the end [15]. 3.4 Secondary Market - The yield curve flattened and repaired. During the statistical period, the bond market showed a repair market, with ultra - long bonds rebounding from oversold conditions, mainly driven by news of relaxed ΔEVE restrictions and sentiment. After the release of the content of the two important meetings, bond yields accelerated their decline at the end of the trading day, but the interest rates turned upward the next day. The key to the subsequent impact on the bond market lies in the intensity and scale of policy implementation [16][17]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: Currently, it's hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing, but in 2026, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase [25]. - **Policy**: The Central Economic Work Conference continued to set the tone of a "more proactive" fiscal policy, emphasizing the need to "maintain the necessary fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure." The tone of monetary policy remained "moderately loose," with a greater emphasis on its role in stabilizing prices. It's expected that the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 may be earlier [25]. - **Funding**: Positive factors include the central bank's open - market operation support, increased fiscal spending, and decreased government bond supply. Risk factors are the high roll - over pressure on bank inter - bank certificates of deposit. It's expected that DR007 will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and inter - bank certificate of deposit yields will remain flat or rise slightly [25]. - **Investment Suggestion**: One can moderately grasp the spreads between China Development Bank bonds and national debts with maturities of 7 years and below, the spreads between Export - Import Bank of China bonds and national debts with a 3 - year maturity, and the term spreads of national debts (5Y - 3Y) [26].

Macro and Strategy Research - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of "quality improvement" and maintaining domestic demand as a primary task for 2026, highlighting the need for effective quality enhancement alongside reasonable growth [2][3] - The fiscal policy will continue to be proactive, focusing on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while optimizing expenditure structures and addressing local fiscal difficulties [3][4] - Monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose stance, with a shift towards flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, emphasizing support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [4][5] - The focus on expanding domestic demand will prioritize supply optimization and service consumption, with plans to implement a "rural and urban resident income increase plan" to boost consumer spending [5][6] - Innovation will be a key area, with plans to establish international technology innovation centers in major regions to enhance the national innovation system and support new momentum cultivation [6][8] - The conference also addressed the need for "anti-involution" measures and emphasized reforms in the capital market to support investment and financing [8] Industry Research - The release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial health insurance innovative drug list aims to support the innovative development of the pharmaceutical industry, with 114 new drugs added to the basic insurance list, including 50 innovative drugs [13][14] - The approval of a CDK2/4/6 inhibitor by a Chinese biopharmaceutical company marks a significant advancement in the industry [13] - The stock performance of the pharmaceutical sector showed a mixed trend, with the SW pharmaceutical industry index PE ratio at 50.70 times, indicating a 265% premium over the CSI 300 index [13][14] - The report suggests focusing on the growth potential of pharmaceutical companies' products entering the insurance list and the investment opportunities arising from the optimization of payment structures for innovative drug companies [14]