Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - Strong demand for men's grooming, health care, and beauty products is noted, with net sales for Q4 2024 at $20.5 billion, flat year-over-year. Organic sales and volume both grew by 2% when excluding foreign exchange, acquisitions, and divestitures [3][4]. - The company is optimistic about long-term growth potential in the Greater China region despite an 8% decline in organic revenue in Q4 2024, primarily due to challenges faced by the SK-II brand and market weakness [3][4]. - The company expects total sales growth of 2% to 4% and organic growth of 3% to 5% for FY2025, with diluted EPS projected to increase by 10% to 12% [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q4 2024 net sales were $20.5 billion, with total sales volume up 1% and prices up 1%, offset by a 2% negative impact from foreign exchange. Organic revenue changes by segment were: beauty +3%, men's grooming +7%, health care +4%, fabric and home care +2%, and baby, feminine, and family care -1% [3][4]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 49.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-over-year, driven by productivity savings and lower commodity costs. However, the SG&A expense ratio increased to 30.7%, up 2.6 percentage points due to marketing reinvestment and wage inflation [3][4]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has made strategic adjustments in its Greater China operations, focusing on more profitable segments, which may impact short-term sales. However, it remains optimistic about long-term growth as market conditions improve [3][4]. Financial Projections - For FY2025, the company projects total revenue of $86.3 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 2.7%. Net profit is expected to reach $15.997 billion, reflecting a 6.8% increase [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [5][10]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 showed a revenue increase of 15.37% year-on-year, reaching 4.075 billion yuan, while the net profit slightly decreased by 1.28% to 120 million yuan [4]. - The decline in magnesium prices has pressured the company's Q2 performance, with the average price of magnesium ingots dropping to 19,924 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14.5% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the magnesium industry, with a complete industrial chain from raw material extraction to deep processing, which is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of magnesium alloy applications in various sectors [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 40.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.37%, and a net profit of 1.20 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.28% [4]. - The average gross profit margin for magnesium alloy products was 14.31%, showing a minor decline of 0.11 percentage points compared to H1 2023 [3]. Market Dynamics - The magnesium industry is experiencing a downturn due to oversupply, leading to a significant drop in profitability, with the average gross profit per ton in the magnesium industry falling from 2,393 yuan in H1 2023 to 505 yuan in H1 2024 [3][6]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new projects expected to come online, which will enhance its market position and production volume [6][8]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts that the company's net profit will grow to 3.40 billion yuan in 2024, 6.69 billion yuan in 2025, and 9.05 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34, 0.67, and 0.91 yuan respectively [7][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing applications of magnesium alloys in automotive and construction sectors, driven by trends towards lightweight materials [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fuyao Glass [1][5][6] Core Views - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 18.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.01%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 3.499 billion yuan, up 23.35% year-on-year [1][3] - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 9.504 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.12% and a year-on-year increase of 7.56% [1][3] - The company's performance growth significantly outpaced the automotive industry's production growth, attributed to an increase in global market share and a higher proportion of high-value-added products [4][5] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) for 2023, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 33,161, 39,087, 44,810, and 50,768 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 17.9%, 14.6%, and 13.3% [1][12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is expected to be 5,629, 7,530, 8,834, and 10,142 for the same years, with growth rates of 18.4%, 33.8%, 17.3%, and 14.8% [1][12] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 36.7%, with a gross margin of 37.7% in Q2 2024, reflecting improvements in product mix and cost reductions [4][5] Market Performance - Fuyao Glass's U.S. subsidiary reported a revenue of 3.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, with net profit doubling to 390 million yuan [4][5] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from product structure upgrades, market share expansion, and stable or declining costs, leading to improved profitability [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the photovoltaic industry, with specific companies like Yangguang Power, Deye, and Jinko Solar recommended for investment [1][2]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a recovery driven by strong global demand, particularly in emerging markets, and is expected to return to a balanced supply-demand state after a period of adjustment [2][26]. - The inverter segment is showing significant performance improvement, with a notable increase in export values, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][9]. - New technologies in battery production are emerging, with companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei making substantial advancements in efficiency and production capacity [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Data of the Photovoltaic Industry - In the first half of 2024, the cumulative newly installed capacity reached 102.5 GW, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. In June 2024, the monthly newly installed capacity was 23.3 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 35.6% and a month-on-month growth of 22.5% [8][29]. - The export scale of photovoltaic components in June 2024 was 23.7 GW, showing a year-on-year increase of 42.4% and a month-on-month increase of 2.2% [8][35]. - The report indicates that the photovoltaic industry is at a low valuation point, with a PE ratio of 17.73 and a PB ratio of 1.85 as of July 31, 2024, suggesting potential for future growth [14][15]. 2. Market Review - The photovoltaic index increased by 3.3% from July 1 to July 31, 2024, outperforming the broader market, primarily due to the rising exports of inverters [9][11]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in inventory levels and a shift towards more competitive advanced capacities as the industry undergoes a supply-side reform [2][32]. 3. Global Demand - The global photovoltaic demand is expected to grow robustly, with projections of 526 GW of new installations in 2024, corresponding to nearly 700 GW of component shipments [26][29]. - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, are anticipated to see a doubling of demand, contributing to the overall growth of the industry [35][34]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply-demand balance is gradually improving, with a focus on eliminating outdated production capacities as new regulations are introduced [32][34]. - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is undergoing a transformation with new standards aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency, which is expected to drive the sector towards sustainable growth [32][34].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company's 2024Q2 revenue was RMB 534.39 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.05%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.858 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.58% [1] - Operating cash flow in 2024Q2 was RMB 11.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.37%, indicating improved cash flow despite declining profits [1] - The company's coal power business was significantly impacted by load factors, with a 40.21% year-on-year decline in profits from Tuas Power [1] - Green power business showed slight growth in 2024H1, with wind and solar power profits increasing by 0.2% and 24% respectively [1] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 11.316 billion, RMB 12.032 billion, and RMB 12.492 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.0%, 6.3%, and 3.8% respectively [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 254.397 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and is expected to be RMB 253.373 billion, RMB 259.708 billion, and RMB 268.936 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was RMB 8.446 billion, with expected growth rates of 34.0%, 6.3%, and 3.8% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [1] - Gross margin for 2023 was 12.1%, with slight fluctuations expected in the coming years, reaching 12.4% by 2026E [1] - ROE for 2023 was 6.4%, expected to increase to 8.8% in 2024E and remain stable around 8.6%-8.7% in the following years [1] - EPS for 2023 was RMB 0.54, expected to increase to RMB 0.72, RMB 0.77, and RMB 0.80 for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [1] Business Segments - Coal power: In 2024Q2, the company's coal power generation was 78.133 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 9.65%, with a profit of RMB 1.155 billion, down significantly from RMB 2.825 billion in 2024Q1 [1] - Green power: Wind and solar power generation in 2024Q2 was 16.16 billion kWh and 8.75 billion kWh respectively, with profits of RMB 1.616 billion and RMB 875 million, showing mixed performance compared to the previous year [1] - Overseas operations: Tuas Power's net profit in 2024H1 was RMB 1.429 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 40.21% [1] Valuation - The company's PE ratio for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is 10.5x, 9.8x, and 9.5x respectively, based on the closing price on August 2, 2024 [1] - The company's PB ratio is expected to remain stable around 0.9x in the coming years [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q2 2024 revenue reached NT$673.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.6%, exceeding the Factset consensus estimate of NT$659.5 billion [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2024 was NT$247.9 billion, up 36.3% year-on-year and 9.9% quarter-on-quarter, also surpassing the Factset consensus estimate of NT$236.4 billion [1] - The company expects to benefit from the demand for advanced processes driven by smartphones and AI in Q3 2024, with revenue guidance between US$22.4 billion and US$23.2 billion [1] - The company is progressing well with its N2 process, which is expected to enter mass production in 2025, and anticipates better performance and profitability from N2P and A16 processes compared to N3 [1] - The company announced its Foundry 2.0 model, highlighting its potential in advanced packaging and testing beyond traditional foundry services [1] - The company is planning price increases for advanced processes and packaging in 2025, aiming to negotiate with key clients to reflect its value without damaging relationships [1] - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are NT$280.22 billion, NT$358.72 billion, and NT$425.94 billion, respectively, with net profits of NT$108.48 billion, NT$142.21 billion, and NT$170.01 billion [1] Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is NT$280.22 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 30% [2] - The projected net profit for 2024 is NT$108.48 billion, reflecting a 29% increase year-on-year [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 54% [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 53% for 2024 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at NT$209.23 [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in profitability due to the fading pandemic benefits, with a 1.2% year-over-year decrease in revenue to $8.8 billion and an 8.1% drop in net profit to $1.12 billion in Q2 2024 [2][3]. - Truck deliveries decreased by 6.7% year-over-year to 48,400 units, while truck sales revenue fell by 3.7% to $6.58 billion [2][3]. - The company has lowered its industry sales guidance for North America and Canada to 240,000-280,000 units, down from the previous forecast of 250,000-290,000 units, marking the second downward revision this year [2][4]. - Despite the overall industry decline, the company has managed to increase its market share in North America from 27.7% to 31.5% year-over-year [2][3]. Market Data - As of August 5, 2024, the closing price is $91.93, with a total market capitalization of $48.192 billion and total assets of $41.177 billion [1]. - The company’s net assets stand at $17.703 billion, with a book value per share of $33.79 [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 18% in Q2 2024, the lowest since 2023, and has guided for a further decline to 17% in Q3 2024 [2][3]. - The parts business saw a revenue increase of 4.1% to $1.66 billion, with a gross margin of 30.3% [2][3]. - The forecast for global industry sales in 2024 is a decline of 13.3% compared to 2023, with total expected sales of 605,000 to 695,000 units [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4][18] Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 3.06 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 167 million yuan, up 301.7% year-on-year [4][8] - The lithium battery business saw a revenue increase of approximately 1.11 billion yuan, up 78.71% year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in the downstream application market [3][4] - The company is expected to experience stable performance due to the recovery of orders and a decrease in lithium carbonate prices, although revenue growth is anticipated to be lower than shipment growth [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 6.669 billion yuan, 7.685 billion yuan, and 8.680 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 434 million yuan, 590 million yuan, and 689 million yuan [2][4] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 16.4% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 6.3% [2][4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.38 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.60 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][4]

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 生猪养殖 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ ） 增持 (维持) ＃dyCompany＃ 牧原股份 （ 002714 ） 002714 ＃title＃ 成本优化显著，公司 Q2 扭亏为盈 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 08 月 05 日 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 事件：公司 2024 上半年实现营收 568.66 亿元，同比+9.63%，实现归母净 利润 8.29 亿元，同比扭亏为盈；2024Q2 实现营收 305.94 亿元，同比 +10.56%，实现归母净利润 32.08 亿元，同比由亏转盈。 ⚫ 公司生猪出栏量稳步增长：公司 2024H1 共销售生猪 3238.8 万头，同比 +7.0%，其中商品猪 2898.2 万头，同比-0.3%，仔猪 309.3 万头，同比+9.5%， 种猪 31.2 万头，同比+221.6%。单季度来看，公司 2024Q2 共销售生猪 1637.7 万头，同比-0.3%，其中商品猪 1367.5 万头，同比-12.9%，仔猪 249.6 万头，同比+271.4% ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 化工 维持） 海外装置不可抗力大幅推涨维生素价格 ＃title＃ ， "衰退交易"致油价大幅回撤 （20240729-20240802） ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 08 月 05 日 ⚫ "衰退交易"致油价大幅回撤，高频数据未转向前，油价或有所承压。 原油需求在进入北美夏季出行旺季以来，终现旺季成色，美国原油及原 油产品呈现持续去库态势，但原油价格自 7月初持续回落，或为 5月以来 美国高频数据连续 miss引发的"降息交易"，即风险集中释放所致，而当 周周五原油价格的快速大幅回撤，则归因于当周周四美国制造业 PMI、 周五失业率和非农数据的大幅 miss 所引发的美国衰退预期。 鉴于油价自 7 月初已有较多基于"降息交易"的回调，且考虑到验证美 国经济衰退指标的滞后性，我们认为虽然短期原油价格依然有所承压， 但对原油价格不宜过分悲观，中期维度仍需更多美国高频数据佐证"衰 退交易"的合理性以及跟踪中东地缘政治局势情况。 ⚫ 作为化工品的终端产品，美国商品消费自 2023 年边际走弱以来，年内美 国个人耐用品消费支出增速进一步放缓，在需求边 ...