行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 建筑材料 ＃ investSuggest ion＃ 推荐 （维持） 重点公司 行 业 周 报 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证建材】周观点：地产政 策持续改善，继续关注建材底部 机会》2024-01-21 《【兴证建材】周观点：政策推 动地产资金改善，行业有望逐渐 走出底部》2024-01-14 《【兴证建材】周观点：地产政 策再度加码，布局建材底部机 会》2024-01-07 ＃ emailAuthor＃ | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | 重点公司 | 评级 | | 东方雨虹 | 增持 | | 三棵树 | 增持 | | 森鹰窗业 | 增持 | | 伟星新材 | 增持 | | 科顺股份 | 增持 | | 坚朗五金 | 增持 | | 兔宝宝 | 增持 | | 中国巨石 | 增持 | | 北新建材 | 增持 | 资料来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 分析师： 黄杨 huangyang@xyzq.com.cn S0190518070004 季贤东 jixiandong@xyzq.com.cn S01905 ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 有色金属 ＃inve推stSu荐ggestion＃ ( ＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持 ） 重点公司 锡业股份 增持 山金国际 增持 永兴材料 增持 laifuyang@xyzq.com.cn S0190522050001 zhaoyuanji@xyzq.com.cn S0190524070011 情绪波动导致板块加速下跌 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 07 月 29 日 投资要点 ＃summary＃ 核心观点：本周板块呈现加速调整态势，我们在上周提到贵金属由于短期降息交 易较为充分，部分资金存在提前兑现冲动，但金价回调继续看多。对于铜铝等基 本金属，近期价格跌幅更为明显，一方面，铜铝等商品库存淡季高位走平，且绝 对值高于往年同期；另一方面，国内政策刺激预期偏弱叠加"特朗普 2.0"交易导 致全球大宗商品需求衰退氛围浓厚，情绪波动导致商品短期估值承压。我们在前 期强调，这轮商品本质上是供给驱动，需求和流动性阶段性变化放大商品价格短 期涨跌。考虑到目前商品价格已从高位明显回落，需求衰退预期是偏短期冲击且 面临修正的可能，后期价格 ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 汽车行业 dongxiaobin@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080001 ＃title＃ ＃inve推stSu荐ggestion＃ ( ＃investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 以旧换新政策加码 ，汽车板块预期向上 维持 ） ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 07 月 29 日 刘馨遥 liuxinyao@xyzq.com.cn S0190524070005 投资要点 ＃summary＃ 以旧换新政策加码，政策力度超预期。2024 年 7 月 25 日，国家发展改 革委、财政部印发《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的 若干措施》，提高汽车报废更新补贴标准。《措施》统筹安排 3000 亿元 左右超长期特别国债资金，加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换 新。其中，针对汽车/家电/农业机械/地方消费品部分补贴，向地方安排 1500 亿元左右超长期特别国债资金，按照总体 9:1 的原则实行央地共 担。相较 2024 年 4 月汽车以旧换新补贴年度资金总额（112 亿元），本 轮汽车补贴额度预计增加。 ＃相关rel报ate告dRepo ...

＃市场ma数rk据etData＃ 市场数据日期 2024-07-27 收盘价（元） 34.65 总股本（百万股） 527.01 流通股本（百万股） 527.01 净资产（百万元） 2571.36 总资产（百万元） 14800.75 每股净资产(元) 4.88 来源：WIND，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 ＃分e析m师ail：Author＃ huangyang@xyzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 ＃＃iinndduussttrryyIIdd＃＃ 涂料 ＃investSuggestion＃ 增持 ( ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ 维持 ） ＃dyCompany＃ 三棵树 （ 603737 ） 603737 ＃title＃ Q2 营收微增，减值影响业绩 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 07 月 28 日 投资要点 ＃ sum公m司ary发＃布 2024 年中报：上半年实现营业收入 57.60 亿元，同比+0.42%；实 现归母净利润 2.10 亿元，同比-32.38%；扣非后归母净利润 0.79 亿元，同比 -64.36%，营收增长主要系多数产品销量增加所致，但部分产品价格下降 ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 公用事业 三中全会推进能源价格改革，前 6 月全国天然气表观消费 量同比+10.01% ＃inve推stSu荐ggestion＃ ( ＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持 ） ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 7 月 28 日 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn S0190518030002 wangyuxuan@xyzq.com.cn S0190523070002 shiyisu@xyzq.com.cn S0190523110001 研究助理： zhulixian@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点 ＃ sum2m0a2r4y0＃722-20240726，本周 A 股电力指数-0.84%，截至 7 月 26 日 PE（TTM）估值 18.1x；A 股 燃气板块指数+0.46%，截至 7 月 26 日 PE（TTM）估值 12.9x。A 股电力指数-0.84%，其细分子 板块火电、水电、新能源发电变化幅度分别为-2.48%、-1.83%、1.66%。A 股燃气板块指数+0.46%。 本周火电组合：浙能电力+皖能电力+国电电力+华电国际+华 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance sector, with specific recommendations for key companies [2][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a new policy issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, which allocates approximately 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs, with 150 billion yuan specifically for home appliances and vehicles [7][11]. - The new subsidy policy covers a broader range of home appliances compared to previous initiatives, with increased subsidy amounts and a higher central government funding ratio [9][10]. - Historical data indicates that similar policies from 2007 to 2013 significantly boosted domestic demand for home appliances, suggesting a potential recovery in demand for the current period [11][12]. Summary by Sections Policy Support - The new subsidy program includes eight categories of home appliances, offering a 15% subsidy for products meeting energy efficiency standards, with an additional 5% for higher-rated products, capped at 2,000 yuan per item [8][9]. - The funding structure has shifted to a 9:1 ratio of central to local government contributions, enhancing the financial backing for the program [9][10]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the policy will restore market confidence and accelerate demand for home appliance upgrades, particularly in the white goods and kitchen appliance segments [11][12]. - High-efficiency products are expected to gain market share, benefiting leading companies such as Haier, Gree, and Midea, which have strong domestic sales and market positions [16][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-dividend, low-valuation white goods leaders and strong alpha candidates in the home appliance sector, including Haier, Hisense, Gree, and Midea [25]. - It also suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential and market share, such as TCL Electronics and Stone Technology [25].

＃title＃ 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 房地产 ＃inve中stSu性ggestion＃ (维持) 新房二手房周报：5 年期 LPR 调降 10 个基点，基础设施 REITs 进入常态化发行阶段 2024 年 7 月 28 日 jinluyu@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080003 yanchangming@xyzq.com.cn S0190514110001 hongbo@xyzq.com.cn S0190523040002 《2024 年房地产行业中期策略 报 告 ： 渐 行 渐 近 的 拐 点 》 2024-6-25 ＃emailAuthor＃ 分析师： 我们跟踪 12 个城市新房+二手房合计成交面积：本周成交面积 251.7 万方，环 比+4.3%，同比+8.2%。2024 年 7 月以来，新房二手房整体成交面积环比-2.5%， 同比+13.1%。2024 年年初以来，新房二手房整体成交面积同比-21.4%，其中， 一/二/三四线新房二手房整体成交面积累计同比-9.4%/-24.3%/-23.2%。注：12 城为有周频新房二手房数据更新的北京、深圳、杭州、成都、青岛、苏州 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive sector, with specific recommendations for individual companies such as Great Wall Motors, Yinlun, Top Group, Aikodi, Fuyao Glass, and Kobot [3][10]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see an upward trend in sales due to the enhanced vehicle trade-in policy, which includes significant subsidies for both passenger and commercial vehicles. The total funding for the vehicle trade-in program is projected to increase from 11.2 billion to approximately 15 billion [8][9]. - The report highlights that the automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly decline of 1.8% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of 3.1% [10][11]. - The report suggests an upward adjustment in vehicle sales expectations, with a recommendation to increase allocation to the automotive sector. It anticipates a slowdown in price wars among luxury and joint venture brands [9][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Developments - The Chinese government has introduced a new vehicle trade-in policy that significantly increases subsidies for scrapping older vehicles, particularly for passenger cars and commercial trucks [8][9]. - Shanghai is set to open its autonomous taxi service to the public in August, with 20 L3 autonomous vehicles planned for deployment [8][9]. 2. Sector Performance - The automotive sector's PE-TTM (not adjusted) stands at 25.1, with historical valuation percentiles indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past year [10][11]. - The sub-sectors of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, auto parts, and automotive services have varying PE-TTM ratios, with passenger cars at 26.7 and commercial vehicles at 31.9 [10][11]. 3. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the automotive sector include BYD, Great Wall Motors, Changan Automobile, and Li Auto for the complete vehicle segment, while Fuyao Glass and Kobot are highlighted for the auto parts segment due to their strong performance and growth potential [9][10]. 4. Market Trends - The report notes a decrease in trading volume for the automotive sector, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [10][11]. - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of improved sales and pricing stability in the second half of 2024 [9][10].

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 煤炭开采 维持 ） ＃title＃ 煤炭行业周报（07.21-07.27）—— 煤价延续震荡，低估值配置价值再现 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 07 月 28 日 投资要点 ＃⚫ summary 动力煤：＃日耗攀升，库存缩减 动力煤港口价格：7 月 26 日，秦皇岛动力煤平仓价为 861 元/吨，周环比 +0.3%；2024年 7月，动力煤长协价（Q5500）为 700元/吨，同比-0.1%，环比 持平。 产地坑口价：7 月 26 日，山西大同 Q5500 坑口含税价 726 元/吨，周环比减少 2 元/吨；鄂尔多斯 Q5500 坑口含税价 668 元/吨，周环比减少 1 元/吨；陕西榆 林 Q5800 坑口含税价 732 元/吨，周环比减少 3 元/吨。 库存：北港：7 月 26 日，北方港口煤炭库存 2534.0 万吨，周减 16.0 万吨。下 游：7 月 25 日，沿海八省终端用户库存 3633.6 万吨，周减 9.5 万吨；可用天数 14.9 天，周减 0.6 天。7 月 25 日，内陆 17 省终端用户库存 9070.3 万吨，周减 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the real estate sector, indicating a performance in line with the relevant market indices [5][35]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has experienced a general decline, with the Hang Seng Real Estate Index dropping by 2.68% this week and 17.60% year-to-date [6][7]. - The report highlights a shift in policy towards supporting the real estate market, including measures to lower down payment ratios and remove mortgage rate floors [2][26]. - The performance of leading real estate companies has shown significant divergence, with state-owned enterprises maintaining stable financial conditions and dividend payouts, while many private firms have reported substantial losses [26][27]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 2.28%, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index fell by 2.68% during the week of July 22-28, 2024 [6][7]. - The top three companies in terms of weekly stock performance were Midea Real Estate (+5.0%), Shenzhen Holdings (-1.1%), and Greentown China (-1.7%) [4][6]. Policy Changes - The central government has introduced policies aimed at optimizing the real estate market, including the April 30 Politburo meeting's emphasis on "digesting stock and optimizing increment" [2][26]. - Recent measures include the establishment of a real estate financing coordination mechanism and adjustments in housing purchase policies in major cities [26][27]. Company Performance - Year-to-date stock performance for leading companies shows Midea Real Estate (+39.7%), CIFI Holdings (+11.8%), and New Town Development (+8.7%) leading the market [4][6]. - The report recommends quality state-owned real estate management companies, including China Resources Land and China Overseas Development, as well as property management firms like China Resources Mixc Life and Poly Property [27]. Trading Activity - The report notes an increase in the proportion of shares held by Hong Kong Stock Connect for Vanke Enterprises, Yuexiu Property, and CIFI Holdings [13]. - The most short-sold companies included Vanke Enterprises, with a short ratio of 13.6% of total shares [17]. Industry Dynamics - The report indicates a significant decline in sales volume in major cities, with a 16.0% year-on-year decrease in cumulative sales area for July [30]. - The performance of property management companies has shown a mixed trend, with some companies like Jinmao Services and Greentown Services reporting substantial year-to-date gains [10][12].