本次电话会议仅服务于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 商业证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性商业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 各位投资者下午好我是信息证券固定收益团队的分析师徐玲那么今天很高兴有这个机会跟各位投资者分享我们近期的一篇国债期货入门分析框架那我主要从我主要从五个方面来进行分享第一个方面是国债期货的一些 第二个是国债期货的基本要素第三个是国债期货上面可以应用的策略第四个是国债期货市场的参与主体第五块是国债期货对现货的一些知识意义 那么首先我们来探讨就是国债期货的一个定义那么国债期货它首先它是一种基于国债这类基础资产的衍生品它创设的初衷其实是为了方便管理利率风险那么也就是因此所以国债期货它最常用的策略还是淘气保值的这个策略那么中长期来看的话国债期货的走势是与现券的走势是基本的一致的无论是1 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [16][18] Core Views - The company's pig farming costs improved in Q1 2024, with profits turning positive year-on-year [2] - The company's pig production volume is expected to grow steadily, with a target of 3-3.5 million heads in 2024 [7] - The feed business achieved both volume and profit growth in 2023, with sales reaching 2.804 million tons, up 20.75% YoY [17] - The animal vaccine business saw rapid growth in 2023, with sales reaching 1.74 billion doses, up 33.15% YoY [21] - The industry's losses are driving a new round of capacity reduction, and pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 2024 [12] Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.78 billion yuan, down 2.9% YoY, but net profit turned positive to 54.06 million yuan [6] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 19.03 billion yuan, up 12.0% YoY, but net profit turned negative to -1.36 billion yuan [10] - The company's gross margin improved from 2.9% in 2023 to 12.1% in 2024E, and is expected to reach 14.5% by 2026E [3] - The company's ROE improved from -21.3% in 2023 to 8.5% in 2024E, and is expected to reach 13.3% by 2026E [3] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.43, 0.72, and 0.89 yuan in 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7x, 10.7x, and 8.6x [18] Industry Outlook - Pig prices in Q1 2024 averaged 14.4 yuan/kg, down 4% YoY, but piglet prices rose significantly after the Spring Festival due to increased demand [2] - The industry's sow inventory at the end of Q1 2024 was 39.92 million heads, down 7.3% YoY, indicating a reduction in capacity [12] - Pig prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2024 due to reduced supply and increased seasonal demand [12] Business Segments - The company's pig production in 2023 reached 2.816 million heads, up 39% YoY, with fattening pigs accounting for 2.595 million heads [10] - The company's feed business revenue in 2023 was 6.49 billion yuan, up 17.4% YoY, with a gross margin of 10.2% [17] - The company's animal vaccine business revenue in 2023 was 1.0 billion yuan, up 5.9% YoY, with a gross margin of 62.6% [21]

证券研究报告 ＃＃iinndduussttrryyIIdd＃＃ 通信网络设备及器件 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃d天yCo孚mpa通ny＃信 （ 300394 ） investSug 增持 ( 维ges持tionC）h 3 交003 付94 波动影响短期收＃ 入title＃ ，不改长期增长态势 ange＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年05月08 日 投资要点 ＃市场ma数rk据etData＃ ＃summary＃  事件：公司发布2023年年报和2024年一季报。2023年公司实现营收19.39 市场数据日期 2024-05-07 亿元，同比+62.04%，归母净利润7.30亿元，同比+81.14%。2024Q1公司实 收盘价（元） 145.50 现营收7.32亿元，同比+154.95%；归母净利润2.79亿元，同比+202.68%。 总股本（百万股） 394.89 流通股本（百万股）  点评：1、2023Q4季度营收和利润均创历史新高，环比保持提升趋势，Fabrinet 358.50 净资产（百万元） 成为公司第一大客户。2023Q4公司实现营收7.32亿元，同比增长138.7 ...

公 司 点 评 报 告 公 司 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 饲料 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ jiyuze@xyzq.com.cn S0190522080004 曹心蕊 caoxinrui@xyzq.com.cn S0190521050002 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 事件：2023 年公司实现营收 269.5 亿元，同比+1.55%；归母净利润-15.3 亿元、扣非净利润-15.05 亿元，同比均由盈转亏。 ⚫ 生猪出栏高速增长，猪价低迷致利润由盈转亏。2023 年猪价整体低位震 荡，仅三季度短暂涨至行业成本线上，23Q1-Q4 国内生猪均价约 15.1、 14.3、16.0、14.7 元/kg，同比+15%、-6%、-29%、-37%，全年生猪均价 15.0元/kg，同比-19%。公司2023年生猪出栏约371.3万头（同比+72.05%）， 其中肥猪出栏 338.65 万头，仔猪出栏 32.6 万头，养殖业务实现收入 51.5 亿元（同比+5.9%）。此外屠宰及肉品业务，全年肉品销量 10 ...

证券研究报告 ＃＃iinndduussttrryyIIdd＃＃ 硅料硅片 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃d通yCo威mpa股ny＃份 （ 600438 ） investSug 增持 ( 首ges次tionC）h 600438 周期底部渐近，＃ 产title＃ 能扩张步步为营 ange＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年05 月08 日 投资要点 ＃市场ma数rk据etData＃ ＃summary＃  事件：（1）公司2023年营收1391.04亿元，同比-2.33%；归母净利润135.74 市场数据日期 2024-05-07 亿元，同比-47.25%，扣非后归母净利润136.13亿元，同比-48.72%。（2）2024Q1 收盘价（元） 22.38 营收195.7亿元，同比-41.13%；归母净利润-7.87亿元，同比-109.15%，扣非 总股本（百万股） 4501.97 后归母净利润-7.9亿元，同比-109.29%。 流通股本（百万股） 4501.97  硅料降价背景下，公司单位盈利保持较强韧性，不惧竞争持续扩大产能。2023 净资产（百万元） 60765.88 年硅料环节迎来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market indices [13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 6.564 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 336 million yuan, with a significant increase of 81.6% compared to the previous year [14]. - The gross margin for 2023 was reported at 45.8%, while the return on equity (ROE) was 13.9%. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.84 yuan [14]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and brand matrix development, which has led to substantial growth in its cross-border e-commerce business [14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8.205 billion yuan, 10.005 billion yuan, and 11.306 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 25.0%, 22.0%, and 13.0% [14]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same years are 432 million yuan, 541 million yuan, and 640 million yuan, with growth rates of 28.6%, 25.5%, and 18.2% [14]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 45.3% to 46.0% from 2024 to 2026, while ROE is projected to increase to 17.2% by 2026 [14]. Business Performance - The company's main business, cross-border e-commerce, generated 6.397 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, accounting for 97.47% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 34.68% [14]. - The apparel and accessories category saw a revenue of 4.671 billion yuan, growing by 41.49%, while non-apparel categories also showed recovery with a revenue of 1.736 billion yuan, up by 19.48% [14]. - The company has successfully built a brand matrix, with notable brands achieving significant sales milestones, contributing to overall revenue growth [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 65.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.783 billion yuan, down 14.54% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 1.118 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.87% year-on-year [1][3]. - The fourth quarter showed significant recovery with a revenue of 17.770 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.04%, and a net profit of 999.6 million yuan, up 86.49% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit for the fourth quarter was 689 million yuan, an increase of 103.13% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company maintained its leading position in the server market, holding the largest share domestically and the second largest globally. It launched the G7 computing platform and introduced 46 new products covering various applications including cloud computing and AI [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 65.867 billion yuan in 2023 to 75.810 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.1% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.783 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.121 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.0% [3][4]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 10.0%, with expectations to rise to 11.1% in the following years [3][4].

究 研 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | ＃市场 ma rk etData ＃ | | | 数 据 市场数据日期 | 2024-05-06 | | 收盘价（元） | 11.88 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1397.38 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1239.79 | | 净资产（百万元） | 5846.5 | | 总资产（百万元） | 13219.4 | | 每股净资产(元 ) | 4.18 | | | | 赖福洋 刀具行业需求整体偏弱，公司业绩相对承压。2023 年刀具市场整体需求偏 弱，行业竞争不断加剧，叠加原料成本抬升，行业整体盈利表现承压，公 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《【兴证金属】中钨高新年报点 评：终端需求拖累导致半年报业 绩改善有限》2023-08-24 《【兴证金属】中钨高新年报& 季报点评：毛利率有所下滑，期 待 新 投 项 目 贡 献 增 量 》 2023-04-30 《【兴证金属·公司点评】中钨 高新：业绩大幅提升，Q2 经营 现金流明显改善》2021-08-26 ...

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 房地产 ＃title＃ 2024Q1公募基金港股地产物管持股总结： ＃inve 推stSu 荐ggest ion＃ ( 维持 ） 绿城中国获最多增持，港资房企持仓比例提升 ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 05月 07日 行 相关报告 投资要点 ＃summary＃ 业 《2023Q4 公募基金港股地产物 ⚫ 2024Q1港股地产物管行业表现回顾：截至2024Q1，恒生地产指数YTD降幅 点 管持股总结：行业持仓明显下 为15.3%；恒生物业管理指数YTD降幅为14.0%。虽然2024年4月29日至 滑，中国海外宏洋集团获最多增 5 月 3 日期间，恒生地产指数、恒生物业管理指数分别增长 5.7%和 12.7%， 评 持》20240203 但仍徘徊在历史低位区间。2024Q1基金持有港股地产物业标的整体平均股价 《2023Q3 公募基金港股地产物 报 管持股总结：国央企持仓比例继 跌幅为14.9%，从个股表现来看，2024Q1涨幅前三的公司为绿城管理控股、 告 续提升，绿城服务获最多增持》 绿城服务和嘉里建设，涨幅分别为19.9%、2.7%和0.3% ...

行 业 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 光伏设备 ＃title＃ 持仓集中度提升，挖掘行业α机遇 ＃ ＃inve推stSu荐ggest ion＃ ( 维持 ） ——光伏行业 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报总结 investS ugg esti onChan ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 05月 07 日 行 ＃ 相关rel 报ate 告dR eport＃ ge＃ 投资要点 业 《【兴证电新】光伏3月报：需 ＃ ⚫ sum 持ma 仓ry＃ ： 光伏行业依然维持超配且持仓集中度提升，集中到业绩表现相对稳定 求回暖，迭代加速》2024-03-22 跟 的龙头公司。根据Wind申万二级行业指数统计，2024年3月31日光伏设备 《【兴证电新】光伏行业跟踪： 踪 2024 年国内光伏装机预期上 行业市值达1.48万亿元，在全A股市值占比为1.68%，从公募基金重仓持股 修，多项利好累积量变引起质 报 数据来看，2024Q1期末公募基金重仓持股总市值中光伏占比为2.99%，超配 变》2024-03-09 告 《【兴证电新】光伏行业2024年 1.31pct，环比提升0.18pct。光伏 ...