行业周报 | 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 02 | 17 | 相关研究 农林牧渔 猪价维持弱势运行，鸡苗价格持续走低 投资要点： S0190522080004 jiyuze@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：曹心蕊 S0190521050002 caoxinrui@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：潘江滢 S0190524060001 panjiangying@xyzq.com.cn 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/16 -2025.02.09 -2025.01.19 -2025.01.06 分析师：纪宇泽 目录 | 一、 行情回顾…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4 | | --- | | ( 一 ) 行业行情 | | ( 二 ) 个股行情 - | | ( 三 ) | | （ 四 ） 本周重要公告 | | （五） 畜禽价格 …………… ...

行业评级 推荐（维持） 行业周报 | 医药生物 证券研究报告 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 17 日 相关研究 【兴证医药】AI 有望赋能医疗领域，继 续看好创新药+创新药产业链——医药行 业周报（2025.2.3-2025.2.7）- 2025.02.11 【兴证医药】医药板块持仓降至历史低 位、继续看好创新药+创新药产业链—— 兴证医药 2025 年 2 月投资月报- 2025.02.05 【兴证医药】医保丙类目录推进中，有 望进一步提升创新药可及性——医药行 业周报（2025.1.13-2025.1.17）- 2025.01.20 分析师：孙媛媛 S0190515090001 sunyuanyuan@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：黄翰漾 S0190519020002 huanghanyang@xyzq.com.cn | 年 2 | 表 1、2025 年 2 | 月 10 | 日-2025 | | 月 14 | | 日医药板块个股涨幅前 5 | 和跌幅前 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | ...

S0190519080002 BPL829 hongjiajun@xyzq.com.cn 海外行业跟踪报告 | 信息技术 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 17 日 相关研究 S0190523060002 请注意: 翁嘉源并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 wengjiayuan@xyzq.com.cn xufenglong@xyzq.com.cn 小米手机：AI 手机二次点火 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/11 分析师：洪嘉骏 分析师：翁嘉源 小米手机：2024 年出货增速历史次高，2025 年有望高端化。公司智能手机在 2024 年 出货量为历史次高的 1.685 亿部，同比增速 15.4%，远超行业增速 6.4%，全球市场份 额增长至 13.6%（YoY +1.1pcts），受益于旗舰新机发布，2024 年 Q3 公司智能手机 ASP 同比增长 10.5%。展望 2025 年，公司手机业务有望受益于国家补贴政策、高端 化战略以及 AI 手机趋势，我们认为 AI 趋势对长期发展尤为关键，看好公司在感知数 据、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's same-store sales decline has narrowed, and store costs continue to optimize. The core operating profit for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with guidance for 2025 indicating that the core operating profit margin will remain at least flat or show positive year-on-year growth. The company maintains a robust shareholder return budget, providing a safety net for dividends [4]. - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, including 11,648 KFC and 3,724 Pizza Hut locations [5][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of $2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $115 million, up 18% year-on-year, and core operating profit was $150 million, up 35% year-on-year [4]. - The company expects revenues of $11.84 billion, $12.71 billion, and $13.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 4.7%, 7.4%, and 7.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $976 million, $1.06 billion, and $1.14 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 7.1%, 8.2%, and 7.8% [6][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $2.58, $2.87, and $3.18 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained strong dividend and buyback efforts, with a total shareholder return of $1.5 billion for the year and a 50% increase in quarterly dividends to $0.24 per share for Q4 2024, which will continue into 2025 [4]. - The total shareholder return plan for 2025 and 2026 remains at $3 billion, representing 8.3% of the market capitalization of HKD 1,404 billion [4]. Store Performance - The operating profit margins for KFC and Pizza Hut in Q4 2024 were 13.3% and 9.3%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.3 and 2.0 percentage points [4]. - Same-store sales for KFC declined by 1% in Q4 2024, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales declined by 2%. However, transaction volumes increased by 3% and 9% for KFC and Pizza Hut, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are experiencing a downward trend, and the market is awaiting a recovery in demand [1]. - The report highlights an increase in daily coal consumption and a faster resumption of coal mining operations, contributing to the decline in coal prices [8]. - The coking coal and coke markets are under pressure, with the ninth round of price reductions for coke initiated [24]. - The steel market is also facing challenges, with a slight decline in iron output [29]. - Futures prices for coking coal and coke have decreased, leading to a convergence in price spreads [37]. - Transportation costs for both sea and land are gradually stabilizing after a period of decline [38]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption has risen, and coal mining recovery is accelerating, leading to a weak decline in coal prices [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking market is undergoing its ninth price reduction, while coking coal prices are under pressure [24]. - **Downstream Changes**: The steel price is declining, and iron output has slightly decreased [29]. - **Futures Market**: Both coking coal and coke futures prices have fallen, with price spreads narrowing [37]. - **Transportation Situation**: Shipping rates for both sea and land are gradually stopping their decline [38]. Weekly Market Review (2025.2.10-2025.2.14) - The report provides a comparative performance of major indices and coal stocks, indicating a decline in coal sector performance [43]. - Notable stock performances include AnYuan Coal Industry with a 13.72% increase, while several other companies like Xinji Energy and Zhongmei Energy experienced declines [43]. Weekly Insights (2025.2.9-2025.2.15) - The report includes detailed financial metrics for various coal companies, with ratings and price changes reflecting market conditions [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the communication industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 3.20% increase in the communication sector from February 10 to February 16, with a slight change of 0.01% [2]. - Notable growth in specific areas includes a 16.66% increase and a 9.33% increase in other metrics, indicating positive trends in the industry [2]. - The report mentions a significant opportunity for Tencent's computing power chain through the integration of DeepSeek [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The report emphasizes the potential of AI technologies and their integration into the communication sector, particularly through platforms like DeepSeek [5][6]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses various AI applications and their relevance to the communication industry, including mentions of VideoWorld and OpenAI [5][6]. Major Events Reminder - Key upcoming events include shareholder meetings for companies such as 罗博特科 and 中际旭创, as well as the listing of restricted shares for 中国电信 [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of new pricing policies for renewable energy and the continuous decline in coal prices, which are expected to benefit the sector [1][4] - The A-share electricity index decreased by 0.18% during the reporting period, with a TTM PE ratio of 16.9x, while the gas sector index fell by 1.02% with a TTM PE of 13.2x [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the annual long-term contract electricity prices and the elasticity of coal prices for thermal power companies [5] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector Data Tracking - As of February 14, 2025, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 750 RMB/ton, down 1.32% from February 7 [11] - The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 6.8 million tons, up 5.8% from February 7, and up 59.3% year-on-year [11] - The average utilization hours for thermal power equipment in 2024 is projected to be 4,400 hours, a decrease of 66 hours compared to the previous year [23] Water Power Sector Tracking - As of February 14, 2025, the inflow and outflow rates at the Three Gorges Reservoir are 0.68 and 0.84 million cubic meters per second, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 41.67% and 23.57% [26] - The total installed capacity for hydropower in China is expected to reach 435.95 GW by the end of 2024, with an annual increase of 13.78 GW [28] Renewable Energy Sector Tracking - The report states that by the end of 2024, the total installed capacity for wind and solar power in China will be 520.68 GW and 886.66 GW, respectively, with new installations of 79.34 GW and 277.17 GW in 2024 [38] - The price of domestic monocrystalline solar modules (PERC, 310W) remains stable at 0.66 RMB/W as of February 14, 2025 [43] Natural Gas Sector Data Tracking - As of February 14, 2025, the average ex-factory price for domestic natural gas is 4,137 RMB/ton, up 3.77% from February 7, while the average price for imported LNG is 4,881 RMB/ton, down 0.35% [55] - The LNG import price is reported at 14.94 USD/million BTU, equivalent to 3.79 RMB/cubic meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.58% [53]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the optimism surrounding the end-side AI hardware innovation wave and computing architecture innovation, driven by the low training costs of Deepseek, which achieves performance comparable to top global models [5][22] - The AI wave is expected to significantly boost demand for computing power, enhancing the value of segments such as servers, AI chips, optical chips, storage, and PCBs [5][24] - The report emphasizes the potential for a super replacement cycle in smartphones as AI technology becomes more prevalent, particularly with Apple's advancements in AI Phones [5][22] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - From February 10 to February 14, the overall market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.30% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.64%. The electronic industry index, however, underperformed, increasing by only 0.27% [7][11] 2. Sub-industry News (1) Semiconductor - TSMC plans to accelerate advanced process manufacturing in the U.S. with the construction of a new factory [13] - Korean foundries are experiencing increased capacity utilization due to rising demand driven by China's economic stimulus policies [13] (2) AI, IoT, and Automotive Electronics - The EU plans to mobilize €200 billion (approximately $206.15 billion) for AI investments to enhance its capabilities in the sector [16] - France's President Macron emphasized the need for Europe to catch up in AI development [16] (3) Innovative Electronics & Smart Wearables - Essilor Luxottica is expanding production of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, targeting an output of 10 million units by next year [18] (4) Mobile & 5G - In 2024, the domestic smartphone market is projected to see a shipment of 314 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [19] (5) LCD & LED - The global tablet panel market is expected to reach a total shipment of 261 million units in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [21] 3. Industry Investment Strategy and Weekly Outlook - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI hardware and components, such as Goertek, Edifier, and others, as the demand for AI applications grows [5][22] - It also highlights the recovery trends in upstream sectors like passive components, digital SoCs, and storage, driven by government policies stimulating consumer electronics [5][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The demand for AIDC electrical equipment is expected to drive the acceleration of computing power construction, with significant growth anticipated in server power supplies and related equipment due to AI data center needs [6][8] - The solid-state battery technology is gaining traction, supported by government policies and increasing demand from downstream sectors, particularly in the automotive industry [10][12] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing supply-side optimization, with signs of price increases and a potential recovery in demand and profitability expected in 2025 [14][15] - The wind power sector is experiencing an upgrade driven by the entry of new energy into the market, with a focus on high-quality development and improved economic viability of offshore wind projects [17][19] - The demand for high-voltage equipment is on the rise, with the recent commencement of bidding for ultra-high voltage equipment indicating a stable growth trajectory in the industry [18][20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the ongoing collaboration between Alibaba and Apple to develop AI functionalities, which is expected to enhance the demand for AIDC power equipment [6][7] - The robot industry is poised for growth with the introduction of humanoid robots in e-commerce, indicating a nearing industrial breakthrough [3][6] Lithium Battery Sector - The solid-state battery and semi-solid-state battery developments are being accelerated by supportive policies and rising demand, with significant advancements expected in the next two years [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state batteries in meeting the energy density and safety requirements of new applications, including electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles [12] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic supply chain is being optimized, with the government encouraging advanced technology development and industry self-regulation to restore rational pricing [15][14] - The report notes that the photovoltaic sector is expected to see a recovery in demand and profitability by 2025, with ongoing technological innovations [15][14] Wind Power Sector - The report indicates that the wind power industry is entering a growth phase, with both onshore and offshore projects expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and policy support [17][19] - The offshore wind sector is particularly highlighted for its potential growth, with significant projects expected to come online by 2025 [19] Electrical Grid - The demand for ultra-high voltage equipment is projected to remain strong, with recent bidding announcements signaling ongoing investment in grid infrastructure [18][20] - The report suggests that the electrical grid sector will benefit from the increasing competitiveness of domestic equipment manufacturers in the global market [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The February market is showing signs of improvement, with a recommendation to actively increase positions in leading companies with rebound potential [6] - The computer sector continues to lead, with a significant value recovery and a prediction that February is the most important opportunity period in the first half of the year [6] - The DeepSeek model is seen as a milestone event that will continuously catalyze the industry, with increasing demand for domestic AI computing power and a positive outlook for AI applications [7][8] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoints - The computer index has risen by 7.81% from February 9 to February 15, outperforming other indices [51] - The report highlights that the computer sector's performance is significantly below historical averages despite a 91% increase since the lowest point in 2024 [6] Cloud Computing: Analysis of Investment Opportunities - Major tech companies are expected to continue increasing capital expenditures, with Amazon's capital spending projected to reach $100 billion in 2025, a 20.48% increase [11] - The domestic cloud computing market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of over 2.1 trillion yuan by 2027 [15] - DeepSeek is driving demand for cloud services, with public cloud providers rapidly adapting to meet the needs of large models [15] Investment Recommendations and Related Companies - Suggested companies in the AI sector include Haiguang Information, Kingsoft Office, and iFLYTEK [9] - In the cloud services sector, recommended companies include Capital Online, Shenxinfu, and Yike Technology [48] - The report emphasizes the importance of the DeepSeek model in enhancing the capabilities of SaaS applications, with companies like Yonyou and Kingdee integrating DeepSeek into their platforms [39][43]