行业深度报告 | 公用事业 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 07 日 相关研究 【兴证公用】全球燃气供需格局回顾与 展望（2）-2022.11.27 【兴证公用&宏观】全球燃气供需格局变 迁及展望-2022.04.14 分析师：史一粟 S0190523110001 shiyisu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李静云 S0190522120001 lijingyun@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：吉金 S0190522030003 jijin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：刘梓涵 S0190523070006 liuzihan@xyzq.com.cn 全球燃气供需格局变迁与展望 3：寻找影响 2025 年进口 LNG 价格的关键变量 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/29 ⚫ 2024 年国际气价触底回升，供需平衡主要受气温、地缘、短期事件影响。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，美国 HH/ 欧 洲 TTF/ 中 国 LNG 到 岸 价 分 别 相 较 年 初 上 涨 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Increase" (Maintain) [2] Core Views - The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of $25.71 billion, which was a slight increase of 2% quarter-over-quarter but fell short of market expectations of $27.26 billion. The GAAP net profit was $2.3 billion, with a contribution of $600 million from changes in the fair value of digital assets. The automotive sales gross margin (excluding credits and leasing) decreased by 4% to 13%, marking a three-year low. The energy business gross margin was 25%, which, although it decreased, remained in a high range [4][5]. - The company has a positive outlook with new products and the Robotaxi expected to launch in 2025. The company defines 2024 as a trough between two growth waves, anticipating a resurgence in sales growth in 2025 driven by new models and advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. The company expects a 50% year-over-year increase in energy deployment in 2025 [6][7]. - The recent financial report reflects a transitional period as the company is at a critical juncture of product and technology upgrades. The existing Model 3 and Model Y have been on the market for several years, leading to a decline in product competitiveness and profitability. The company remains a leader in autonomous driving, with significant investments in AI, data, algorithms, and infrastructure, which provide a solid foundation for continuous improvement in autonomous driving technology [6][7]. Financial Summary - Key financial metrics for the company are as follows: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at $97.69 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $7.09 billion, reflecting a 53% decline year-over-year - Gross margin is projected at 18% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10% [5][6]. - The company anticipates automotive sales of 1.8 million units in 2024, with a gradual increase in production and sales expected in subsequent years [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Enphase Energy, Inc. is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Enphase Energy, Inc. is a leading player in the microinverter market in the U.S. The company's performance is expected to improve quarterly in 2024, with significant share buybacks reflecting confidence. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, demand for residential photovoltaics in the U.S. is anticipated to recover, leading to profit recovery in 2025 and long-term growth potential [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Enphase shipped 2.013 million microinverters, a year-on-year increase of 26.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.2%, translating to 878 MW, which is a 33.0% year-on-year and 20.3% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average power per unit was 426W, up 2.9% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter. The company also shipped 152.4 MWh of energy storage batteries, marking an 88.8% year-on-year increase but an 11.9% quarter-on-quarter decrease [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue reached $383 million, exceeding previous guidance of $360-400 million, representing a 26.5% year-on-year and a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase. Revenue from the U.S. accounted for 79%, while international revenue contributed 21%, primarily from Europe, Latin America, Australia, and India. U.S. revenue grew by 33% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, while international revenue increased by 8% year-on-year but decreased by 17% quarter-on-quarter due to weak demand in Europe [4][5]. Gross Margin and Net Profit - The gross profit (Non-GAAP) for Q4 2024 was $204 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33.9%. The gross margin rate (Non-GAAP) was 39.7%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Including IRA subsidies, the gross margin rate was 53.2%, up 3.0 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, maintaining a high level [4][5]. Future Guidance - For Q1 2025, the company expects revenue to be between $340 million and $380 million, with a midpoint representing a 37% year-on-year increase. The gross margin rate (Non-GAAP) is projected to be between 48% and 51%, benefiting from IRA subsidies [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - Enphase continues to focus on research and development and sales, adopting a light-asset model through outsourcing. The company has a global quarterly production capacity of 7.25 million microinverters, with 5 million units produced in the U.S. [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.84% [2][3] - The performance is under pressure due to weak sales volume and pricing, with a projected sales volume of 2.975 million tons in 2024, down 0.75% year-on-year [3] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to maintain a high dividend level, with cash dividend ratios of 83.0%, 99.6%, and 101.4% for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, with a slight decline in net profit to 1.245 billion yuan [5] - The gross margin is expected to decrease to 48.5% in 2024 from 49.1% in 2023 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 2.57 yuan, down from 2.76 yuan in 2023 [5] Sales and Market Dynamics - The sales volume is projected to decline to 2.975 million tons in 2024, with a quarterly breakdown showing a significant drop in Q4 [3] - The company faces challenges in high-end product sales, with brands like 1664 and Uusu experiencing a decline, while others like Lebao and Carlsberg continue to grow [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to explore new growth opportunities and expand non-drinking channels, with expectations for revenue stability in 2025 [4] - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 14.789 billion yuan and 14.968 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.267 billion yuan and 1.298 billion yuan [5]

基础数据 | 02 月 07 日收盘价（元） | 120.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿元） | 122.00 | | 总股本（亿股） | 1.01 | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | 相关研究 公司点评报告 | 电力设备 证券研究报告 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（首次） | 分析师：武圣豪 S0190524030007 wushenghao@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王帅 S0190521110001 wangshuai21@xyzq.com.cn 欧陆通(300870.SZ) 2024 年业绩预告点评，AI 浪潮驱动服务器电 源高景气，高功率服务器电源增长强劲 投资要点： | 主要财务指标 | | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2870 | 3757 | 4563 | 5249 | | 同比增长 | 6.2% | 30.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the new energy materials sector, with a strong focus on lithium battery cathode materials and a robust product portfolio that includes lithium cobalt oxide, ternary materials, and hydrogen storage alloys. The company has maintained its market leadership with the highest global market share in lithium cobalt oxide and has seen a recovery in profitability with a 13% year-on-year increase in net profit in Q4 2024 after seven consecutive quarters of decline [3][10][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 688778), is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and has a stable shareholding structure with Xiamen Tungsten as the controlling shareholder. The company has a comprehensive supply chain and a strong focus on R&D, holding over 100 patents [10][16]. New Cathode Materials - The NL cathode material is positioned to lead a revolution in lithium battery technology, offering significant advantages in energy density, fast charging, and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional materials. The company expects to begin small-scale shipments of NL materials in 2024, with a projected demand of 0.38 million tons by 2025 and a compound annual growth rate of 634% from 2024 to 2027 [3][34][40]. Lithium Cobalt Oxide Leadership - The demand for lithium cobalt oxide is anticipated to surge in 2025 due to the increasing battery capacity requirements driven by AI and foldable smartphones. The company has maintained its leading market share and is well-positioned to benefit from this demand growth [3][10][34]. Ternary Materials - The company is a leader in high-nickel ternary materials, with a 37.32% increase in shipments despite a 1.5% decline in global ternary production in 2024. The company is focusing on high-power differentiated products to capture new revenue streams in the automotive battery market [3][10][34]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.97 billion, 8.11 billion, and 10.52 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The price-to-earnings ratios corresponding to these profits are 36.6, 22.5, and 17.3 [3][10][34].

公司点评报告 | 交通运输 证券研究报告 | 公司评级 | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 06 日 | 基础数据 | 02 月 05 日收盘价（元） | 15.78 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿元） | 261.73 | | 总股本（亿股） | 16.59 | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证交运】皖通高速 2024 年中报点 评：通行费短期承压，成长性位于板块 前列-2024.09.06 【兴业交运】皖通高速 2023 年报点评： 核心路段潜力持续释放，成长性位于板 块前列-2024.04.08 分析师：陈尔冬 S0190524080005 chenerdong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张晓云 S0190514070002 zhangxiaoyun@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王凯 S0190521090002 wangkai21@xyzq.com.cn 皖通高速(600012.SH) 持续注入优质路产，现金收购增厚业绩 投资要点： ⚫ 风险提示：经济下行导致车流量下降、收费政策变化、本次交易股 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry has faced a prolonged adjustment period due to multiple factors such as demand pressure and supply expansion, but leading companies with strong brand power and quality business models can still achieve performance through economic cycles [2][3] - The key divergence points for the liquor industry in 2025 include the recovery pace across different price segments, with the 100-300 price range expected to be a highlight while higher-end segments remain under pressure [3][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel replenishment willingness and the impact of various indicators on the quality of quarterly reports for liquor companies [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is expected to experience a "deceleration adjustment year" in 2025, with a focus on maintaining stability rather than aggressive growth [18] - Different price segments are recovering at different paces, with the 100-300 price range showing quicker recovery due to changing consumption scenarios [19][20] - Key indicators for tracking the liquor industry include inventory reduction, channel financing costs, and the old liquor price index, which reflects consumer and investor confidence [5][6] Section 2: Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is expected to recover faster than the liquor sector, with structural highlights emerging from the restaurant recovery, channel evolution, and cost reductions [6][7] - The report identifies three main lines for consumer goods: benefits from restaurant recovery, companies benefiting from channel structural changes, and improvements in profitability due to cost reductions [6][7] - Specific recommendations include focusing on leading brands in the restaurant supply chain, such as Anjuke Foods and Haitian Flavoring, and monitoring growth opportunities in snacks and beverages [8] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - For liquor, the focus is on selecting leading brands and high-end products, with long-term investments in companies with high dividends [8] - For consumer goods, the report suggests looking at companies benefiting from cyclical recovery in restaurants, stable demand in snacks and beverages, and potential profitability improvements in the dairy sector [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is currently at a historical low, but there are expected investment opportunities in 2025, particularly in innovative drugs and their supply chains [13][14] - The report highlights the importance of innovation and internationalization as key themes for growth in the pharmaceutical industry [14] - The report notes that the medical device sector is also expected to see improvements in 2025, driven by policy implementation and economic recovery [17] Summary by Sections 1. January 2025 Market Review - From January 2 to January 27, 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 3.80% compared to a 2.99% drop in the index [7][30] - The pharmaceutical sector index fell by 16.10% from 2024 to January 27, 2025, ranking 29th among 30 primary sub-industries [7] 2. February 2025 Investment Strategy - The report indicates a decrease in public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector, with a holding ratio of 7.96% in Q4 2024, down 1.04 percentage points [9] - The report emphasizes that the pharmaceutical sector is currently underweight when excluding pharmaceutical funds, with a holding ratio of 3.33% [9] 3. Sector Performance and Valuation - As of January 27, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector's valuation was 25.41 times earnings, with a premium of 114.48% over the CSI 300 index [31] - The report notes a downward trend in the valuation premium of the pharmaceutical sector [31] 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several companies, including: - **BeiGene**: Expected to see revenue growth from its core product, with projected revenues of CNY 26.653 billion, CNY 35.490 billion, and CNY 42.403 billion from 2024 to 2026 [21] - **Hengrui Medicine**: Anticipated to benefit from a new product cycle, with projected EPS of CNY 0.99, CNY 1.09, and CNY 1.28 from 2024 to 2026 [22] - **CanSino Biologics**: Expected to achieve significant market potential with its core product, projected revenues of CNY 2.821 billion, CNY 4.766 billion, and CNY 6.634 billion from 2024 to 2026 [24] - **WuXi AppTec**: Anticipated to see strong growth in orders and revenues, with projected EPS of CNY 3.36, CNY 3.74, and CNY 4.11 from 2024 to 2026 [25] - **Aier Eye Hospital**: Expected to benefit from demand recovery, with a strong market position in the medical services sector [28]