行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 美容护理 ＃ 行 业 投 资 策 略 报 告 投资要点 ＃ sum个m护ary：＃竞争格局优于化妆品，线上渠道高速增长为个护板块的崛起提供机遇、外资出 让份额，头部品牌市占率提升空间较大。2022 年 11 月-2023 年 10 月，线下渠道增速 放缓，以抖音为代表的内容电商销售额高速增长，强势崛起，带动日化行业线上市场 增长 11.3%，同时流量费用不断下降，市场准入门槛降低。从竞争格局看，外资品牌 的市场份额逐渐降低，份额出让&头部品牌市占率空间大，国货品牌各自采取不同的 发展策略，均紧抓线上渠道红利，实现份额提升。登康口腔通过推高卖高的策略，实 施品类拓展与产品升级，巩固了其在成人牙膏市场的优势地位；而润本股份专注于母 婴+驱蚊，主打性价比，驱蚊板块推出二代产品，全面替代一代产品，同时公司具备 卓越的运营效率，盈利能力位于行业前列。推荐润本股份、登康口腔。 线下美护：板块弹性较大，线下美护行业长期增长空间大，主要驱动力来自供给侧创 新，政策刺激下，医美市场回暖。随着消费者对美丽和健康的需求不断提升，市场对 高质量、高效能美容产品的渴求也随之增加。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the chemical industry, suggesting a positive outlook for 2025 [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with policy support expected to drive demand recovery in 2025 [1] - Traditional chemical products are expected to see valuation recovery, with leading companies benefiting from their scale and cost advantages [1] - New materials, particularly in areas like photoresists and OLED materials, are seen as key growth opportunities due to their high technological barriers and low domestic penetration rates [1] Traditional Chemical Products - Demand is expected to improve due to policy support in China and a shift towards looser monetary policy in the US [13][17] - Supply-side constraints, including slower new capacity additions and potential policy-driven reforms, could lead to improved profitability [32][47] - Leading companies like Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Huafon Chemical are recommended due to their strong market positions and cost advantages [1][74] New Materials - Photoresists are highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution, with companies like Tongcheng New Materials recommended [1] - OLED materials and equipment are expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of mid-sized OLED displays and the construction of high-generation production lines [1] - Lubricant additives are another area of focus, with domestic companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Lionbridge expected to reshape the global supply landscape [1] Key Companies - **Wanhua Chemical**: A global leader in MDI production with strong R&D capabilities and a diversified product portfolio [103] - **Hualu Hengsheng**: A cost leader in modern coal chemical industry with ongoing capacity expansions and technological upgrades [104] - **Huafon Chemical**: A leading player in the polyurethane industry with significant scale and cost advantages [105] - **Yangnong Chemical**: A top pesticide manufacturer with strong R&D and production capabilities [106] - **Satellite Chemical**: A leader in the acrylic acid and light hydrocarbon-to-olefin industries with a highly integrated supply chain [106] - **Baofeng Energy**: A benchmark in the coal chemical industry with ongoing expansions in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [107] - **Lomon Billions**: A global leader in titanium products with a fully integrated supply chain from mining to high-end products [107] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polyester filament industry is expected to see improved profitability due to slowing supply growth and steady demand [110][111] - The refrigerant industry is benefiting from strict supply quotas and strong demand from the home appliance and automotive sectors [1] - High-energy-consuming and polluting sub-sectors like phosphorus, silicon, and chlor-alkali chemicals may see supply-side reforms [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the photovoltaic industry, with specific recommendations for key companies such as Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and JA Solar [3][4][5][6][7]. Core Insights - Continuous breakthroughs in monocrystalline battery technology are driving cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with new technologies like BC and HJT expected to complement each other and enhance existing TOPCon capacity [8]. - Industry self-discipline is anticipated to end vicious competition, with a potential bottom reversal. The global photovoltaic installation demand is projected to grow at a long-term rate of 10-15% [8]. - High-premium market supply chains are becoming stringent, with overseas capacity expansion aligning with trends, particularly in the U.S. market [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Breakthroughs in Monocrystalline Battery Technology - The core logic of the photovoltaic industry is cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, with a well-established iterative technology route. The current mainstream technology is TOPCon, while BC and HJT are in early mass production stages [32][34]. 2. Industry Self-Discipline and Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are expected to drive global photovoltaic demand growth, with a forecast of 489GW new installations in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 39% [63][64]. 3. Supply Chain and Capacity Trends - The U.S. market's high barriers lead to significant premiums, making overseas production profitable despite higher costs. The report highlights the challenges faced by Southeast Asian suppliers due to anti-dumping tariffs [8]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on advancements in BC and HJT technologies, recommending companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. It also emphasizes the importance of leading manufacturers in the existing technology routes [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the home appliance industry, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric [2][3]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from policy support for domestic demand and long-term export resilience, with a notable performance in 2024 driven by low valuations, high dividends, and stable earnings from leading white goods companies [2][3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic demand, particularly from the "trade-in" policy, which has shown a marked improvement in retail sales growth for home appliances [2][3]. - The export market is also projected to maintain high growth, with a year-on-year increase in export value of 14.5% and export volume up by 22.2% in 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Fundamentals and Style-Driven Market - The home appliance sector has outperformed the market, with the Shenyin Wanguo home appliance index rising by 25.0% from January to October 2024, significantly surpassing the 11.6% increase of the CSI 300 index [15][18]. - The sector is characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment option [23][26]. 2. Policy Support for Domestic Demand - The "trade-in" policy is expected to drive domestic demand, with retail sales of home appliances showing significant growth in September and October 2024, with year-on-year increases of 20.5% and 39.2% respectively [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government subsidies and favorable real estate policies in boosting consumer confidence and demand for home appliances [38][39]. 3. Export Growth Potential - The report notes that the home appliance export market has shown resilience, with a strong performance in emerging markets and a recovery in demand from developed markets [2][3]. - The export value of home appliances is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by low base effects and channel replenishment [2][3]. 4. White Goods Sector - The white goods segment is highlighted as a key area of focus, with expectations of significant recovery in domestic demand driven by government subsidies and improved market conditions [2][3]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Midea and Gree, are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [2][3]. 5. Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is anticipated to see a gradual improvement in market conditions, with expectations of valuation recovery and performance stabilization [2][3]. - The report indicates that the kitchen appliance segment is likely to benefit from favorable real estate policies and consumer demand recovery [39]. 6. Small Appliances - The small appliance market is projected to recover from a low base, with domestic demand expected to improve as competition eases [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the small appliance sector, particularly in the context of ongoing government support and market stabilization [2][3]. 7. Vacuum Cleaners - The vacuum cleaner segment is noted for its resilience, with expectations of significant growth in domestic sales driven by the "trade-in" policy and increasing consumer interest [2][3]. - The report suggests that leading brands in this category are likely to maintain a stable market position amid ongoing demand growth [2][3]. 8. Color TVs - The color TV market is expected to experience a boost from government subsidies and increased penetration in overseas markets, marking a turning point for the industry [2][3]. - The report anticipates stable demand in the global color TV market, supported by favorable pricing dynamics and improved supply chain conditions [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific companies rated as "Buy" or "Increase" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The copper, aluminum, and gold sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with copper and aluminum expected to experience price increases due to rigid supply and stable demand [4][18]. - Gold is anticipated to have upward price potential driven by its monetary attributes and supportive monetary policies, particularly under the influence of Trump’s policies [4][6]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report emphasizes that the upward trend in copper, aluminum, and gold prices is expected to continue, suggesting a focus on these sectors during the economic policy acceleration phase in China [4][18]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper and aluminum prices are projected to remain in an upward channel due to supply constraints and robust demand, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply shortages and macroeconomic factors [5][19]. - The report notes that the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with a projected net increase of approximately 300,000 tons in 2025 [44][45]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to benefit from the transition in energy structure and the growth of new industries, leading to a sustained increase in demand [5][19]. Gold - Gold prices are expected to rise due to inflation, geopolitical factors, and central bank purchases, with the valuation of gold stocks currently at historically low levels, indicating potential for recovery [6][19]. - The report suggests that the monetary characteristics of gold will dominate its price movements in 2025, supported by a favorable monetary policy environment [4][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, China Aluminum, and Shenhuo Co. for copper and aluminum investments, while suggesting attention to gold stocks like Shanjin International and Chifeng Jilong Gold [2][6].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Views - The rise of edge AI is driving a wave of hardware innovation, with increasing demand for computing power [2] - Semiconductor localization is imperative, with a focus on wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging supply chains [3] - Consumer electronics innovation and recovery are expected to drive upstream demand [3] - AI-driven hardware innovation is expected to boost demand for processors, memory, batteries, and cooling solutions [2][3] Key Companies and Ratings - Key companies with "Buy" ratings: Luxshare Precision, Hikvision [1] - Key companies with "Overweight" ratings: Unimicron, GigaDevice, Luxshare Precision, AAC Technologies, Goertek, etc [1] Industry Overview - The electronics industry showed steady growth in 2024, with total revenue and net profit increasing by 18.09% and 36.56% YoY, respectively [22] - The industry's gross margin and net margin were 15.79% and 4.07% in the first three quarters of 2024 [24] Edge AI and Hardware Innovation - Edge AI is driving innovation in traditional devices like smartphones and PCs, as well as new form factors like glasses and rings [2] - Apple is expected to lead the AI smartphone market, while Android manufacturers are collaborating with AI model providers to implement AI features [2] - AI glasses and headphones are expected to become major interaction points for AI agents due to their portability and voice interaction capabilities [2] Semiconductor Localization - Semiconductor localization is a key trend, with a focus on equipment, materials, and components [3] - The demand for semiconductor materials is expected to improve as wafer fab utilization rates recover [3] - Advanced packaging technologies like HBM and CoWoS are critical for AI applications and require localization efforts [3] Consumer Electronics Recovery - Inventory levels in sectors like memory, passive components, and digital SoCs have normalized, leading to improved performance for related companies [3] - The recovery in consumer electronics is expected to drive demand for upstream components, especially those with increased value due to edge AI [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on traditional devices like AI smartphones and PCs, with attention to value-added components such as PCBs and batteries [4] - Invest in companies benefiting from the growth in computing power, such as high-speed PCB manufacturers [4] - Pay attention to semiconductor equipment and material companies that are key to localization efforts [4] - Look for opportunities in sectors with strong recovery potential, such as passive components and memory interface chips [4] Key Figures and Data - AI smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.7 billion units in 2024, with a penetration rate of 15% [53] - AI PC shipments are projected to reach 44 million units in 2024 and 103 million units in 2025 [55] - The global HBM market is expected to grow significantly, driven by AI demand [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Cable and "Hold" ratings for Ha Li Wind Power, Jin Lei Co., Tai Sheng Wind Power, and Yun Da Co. [3][4][5][6][7] Core Viewpoints - The wind power industry is experiencing a recovery in construction activity, with significant growth expected in both offshore and onshore wind installations. The overall industry valuation is anticipated to improve as domestic offshore wind projects accelerate and new opportunities arise in deep-sea projects. [8][9] - The demand for wind power is projected to remain strong, with a notable increase in export orders. The domestic wind turbine price war is nearing its end, leading to a potential turnaround in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers by 2025. [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of both domestic and international markets, highlighting the expected growth in offshore wind installations and the increasing competitiveness of domestic companies in the global market. [9][52] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The wind power index has outperformed the photovoltaic equipment index in 2024, indicating a recovery in the wind power sector. The upcoming construction wave is expected to drive new growth in the industry. [17] 2. Wind Power Installation Trends - In 2023, China's wind power installations reached 75.7 GW, a 101% increase year-on-year. The first ten months of 2024 saw an additional 45.8 GW installed, marking a 23% increase compared to the previous year. [30] 3. Domestic Offshore Wind - The offshore wind market is set for significant growth, with various provinces ramping up construction. The report forecasts that offshore wind installations will reach 7 GW in 2024 and 12 GW in 2025. [36][39] 4. Domestic Onshore Wind - The trend of larger wind turbine models is slowing down, with a focus on 6-8 MW models expected to dominate the market. Profitability for onshore wind turbines is anticipated to improve by 2025. [43][49] 5. Export Market - The global wind power market is experiencing robust growth, with 2023 seeing a record 116.6 GW of new installations. The report predicts continued strong demand in international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia. [52][59]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 2.12 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12.4%. The EBITDA has also continued to improve, with a Non-GAAP EBITDA of 595 million yuan, up 17.1% year-over-year [3]. - The IDC business is performing strongly, with an increasing rack rate. As of September 30, 2024, the operational capacity for the base IDC business was 358 MW, with a signed capacity of 352 MW and a utilization rate of 78.0% [3]. - The company has signed six large customer orders in Q3 2024, totaling 84 MW, with a significant portion related to AI demand [3]. - The company is advancing its Pre-REITs project, planning to sign a final agreement with a leading Chinese insurance company by the end of 2024, which will enhance its capital management [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8,067 million yuan, 8,686 million yuan, and 9,409 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be 2,236 million yuan, 2,536 million yuan, and 2,864 million yuan [6]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 17.4% in 2023 to 24.0% by 2026, while the net profit margin is expected to turn positive by 2024 [6]. - The company anticipates a basic earnings per share of 0.11 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.20 yuan by 2026 [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 990.28 million yuan for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 54.38 million yuan, up 13.49% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 48.83 million yuan, reflecting a 12.26% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company maintains strict cost control, with a slight decline in gross and net profit margins in Q3. For the first nine months of 2024, the gross margin was 13.20%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.49%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is a national high-tech enterprise focused on providing integrated development services for non-coal mines globally, with over 60 years of experience and services provided to more than 70 large and medium-sized mines [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 13.20% and a net margin of 5.49%. The selling expense ratio was 0.15%, down 0.14 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio was 3.39%, down 0.83 percentage points year-on-year. The R&D expense ratio was 2.10%, down 0.32 percentage points year-on-year, and the financial expense ratio was 0.76% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 334.68 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.27 million yuan, down 8.79% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 10.24 million yuan, reflecting a 7.88% increase year-on-year [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the market index [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 335.52 million yuan for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 94.12%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 44.13 million yuan, up 8.02% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 35.90 million yuan, down 3.39% year-on-year [1]. - The company's gross margin for the first nine months of 2024 was 35.08%, a decrease of 15.17 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 14.18%, down 11.85 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio was 6.51%, down 2.44 percentage points, while the management expense ratio was 8.90%, down 0.95 percentage points, and the R&D expense ratio was 6.53%, down 1.51 percentage points [1]. - The company operates in two main business segments: industrial wireless control and new energy, with a focus on the development and production of energy storage products. As of mid-2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage projects in the country reached 44.44 GW/99.06 GWh, a growth of over 40% compared to the end of 2023 [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported a revenue of 234.26 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 46.15 million yuan, down 23.89% year-on-year. The gross margin was 49.15%, and the return on equity (ROE) was 6.17% [3]. - The company's market capitalization as of December 10, 2024, was 2.442 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 49.40 times [6].