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固定收益市场周观察:本轮赎回压力或止于基金端
Orient Securities· 2025-08-25 13:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment environment of this round of the bond market is different from the past. The redemption pressure may stop at the fund level, and the situation of comprehensive and substantial supplementary decline in the bond market and significant redemption of wealth management products by residents may not occur [4][7]. - The redemption pressure caused by the decline of the bond market this time is mostly concentrated in the fund level. Institutions reduce bond positions and redeem funds, but the pressure may stop at institutional redemptions and not spread to residents redeeming wealth management products [15]. - The "right - hand side" signal of this round of the bond market may appear earlier than expected. Investors are advised to pay attention to central bank operations and interest rate trends [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - During the recent bond market adjustment, investors have different views on bond investment. One view is that the bond market decline will end after short - term and credit bonds fully make up for the decline or after residents panic - redeem wealth management products. However, the report believes that the adjustment environment is different this time, and the redemption pressure may stop at the fund level [4][7]. - There are three reasons: 1) During this bond adjustment, funds are continuously loose, and the central bank cares about the capital market. The adjustment is not caused by capital shortage, and the risk of supplementary decline in bonds is controllable, which has less impact on wealth management products held by residents [8]. 2) This bond adjustment is in the stage of accelerating decline in broad - spectrum interest rates, and investors have a more adequate expectation of the decline in investment returns and are more likely to accept the decline in wealth management yields, making it less likely for negative feedback to occur [10]. 3) Wealth management products used the smoothing valuation method in 2024, which stabilized the scale and helped the stable liability side of wealth management [13]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Domestic August PMI to be Announced - China will announce August PMI, the US will announce July core PCE and August University of Michigan consumer confidence index, and the ECB will announce the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting [17]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Volume Declines - This week, the issuance of local bonds continues at a high level, and there is no issuance plan for national bonds at the end of the month. It is expected that a total of 5116 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds will be issued, falling to a relatively low level in the same period. Among them, there is no issuance plan for national bonds, 81 local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 3516 billion yuan, and the actual issuance scale of policy - financial bonds is expected to be about 1600 billion yuan [19]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.1 Net Reverse Repurchase Operation Injection of 1.37 Trillion - The central bank's open - market operation has a net injection of more than one trillion. The reverse repurchase injection scale first rises and then falls, with a total injection of 2077 billion yuan and a net injection of 1365.2 billion yuan. After adding the net withdrawal of treasury fixed - term deposits, the open - market operation has a net injection of 1265.2 billion yuan. The capital price first rises and then falls. The repurchase trading volume gradually rises to 7.38 trillion, and the overnight ratio average falls to around 88%. The capital interest rate first rises and then falls [22][23]. - The issuance scale of certificates of deposit declines, and the primary and secondary prices both rise. From August 18th to August 24th, the issuance scale is 549.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale is 794.7 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is - 245.5 billion yuan. The primary and secondary interest rates of certificates of deposit both rise [29]. 3.2 Weak Liability - Side Stability of Fixed - Income Asset Management Products - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through upwards again, and interest rates were under pressure. The liability - side stability of fixed - income asset management products was weak, facing greater redemption pressure. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3800 points, and interest rates rose significantly again. On August 22nd, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year national bonds all increased compared with the previous week, with the 3 - year national bond rising the most, up 9.7bp [41]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, the operating rates are differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate and petroleum asphalt operating rate decline, while the semi - steel tire operating rate and PTA operating rate rise. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early August narrows [49]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales have rebounded to a relatively high level. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing transaction area is still significantly negative. The export indices SCFI and CCFI have decreased by 3.1% and 1.5% respectively [49]. - On the price side, the crude oil price rises, the copper and aluminum prices are differentiated, and the coal prices are also differentiated. In the middle - stream, the building materials composite price index decreases by 1.1%, the cement index increases by 1.8%, and the glass index decreases by 3.1%. The output of rebar decreases, the inventory rapidly rises to 4.33 million tons, and the futures price decreases by 2.1%. In the downstream consumer sector, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork change by 1.9%, - 1.3%, and 0.2% respectively [50].
伟星股份(002003):Q2业绩有所承压,看好下半年开始逐步改善
Orient Securities· 2025-08-25 11:09
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 17.07 CNY [1][6] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in its international business, with revenue and profit expected to gradually improve in the second half of the year [5][8] - The company is a leader in the global apparel accessories industry, maintaining its core competitiveness through stable product quality, personalized design capabilities, and early internationalization [8][9] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected earnings per share of 0.62, 0.71, and 0.82 CNY for 2025-2027 [6][9] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3,907 million CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7%. The revenue is expected to reach 4,936 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.6% [6][13] - Operating profit for 2023 was 673 million CNY, with a projected increase to 870 million CNY in 2025, showing a growth of 2.0% [6][13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 558 million CNY in 2023, expected to rise to 719 million CNY in 2025, indicating a growth of 2.7% [6][13] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the company is projected to improve from 40.9% in 2023 to 42.3% in 2025, driven by changes in product and customer structure [6][8] - The net profit margin is expected to be 14.6% in 2025, slightly down from 15.0% in 2024 [6][13] Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of August 22, 2025, was 11.45 CNY, with a 52-week high of 14.89 CNY and a low of 10.14 CNY [1] - The company’s absolute performance over the past week was 4.57%, while the relative performance was 0.39% [2]
伟星股份(002003):Q2业绩有所承压看好下半年开始逐步改善
Orient Securities· 2025-08-25 11:03
伟星股份 002003.SZ 公司研究 | 中报点评 | | 买入 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 股价(2025年08月22日) | 11.45 元 | | 目标价格 | 17.07 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 14.89/10.14 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(万股) | 116,889/101,661 | | A 股市值(百万元) | 13,384 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 4.57 | 4.38 | -0.87 | -5.62 | | 相对表现% | 0.39 | -1.91 | -12.73 | -37.76 | | 沪深 300% | 4.18 | 6.29 | 11.86 | 32.14 | 施红梅 021-63325888*6076 shihongmei@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号:S086051101000 ...
皇马科技(603181):二季度逆势增长,下半年有望增速回升
Orient Securities· 2025-08-25 10:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilient growth in the second quarter, with a notable increase in sales volume and net profit despite a slight decline in sales prices. The company achieved a revenue of 1.194 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 219 million yuan, up 14.67% year-on-year [10] - The company is expected to benefit from a gradual stabilization of tariff policies and macroeconomic improvements, which may lead to a recovery in sales and performance growth in the second half of the year [10] - The company’s long-term growth potential is anticipated to accelerate due to the exit of traditional chemical production capacities in developed countries, creating opportunities for Chinese fine chemical companies like the company [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 1,894 in 2023, projected to grow to 2,333 in 2024 (23.2% YoY), 2,659 in 2025 (14.0% YoY), 3,191 in 2026 (20.0% YoY), and 3,829 in 2027 (20.0% YoY) [8] - Operating profit (million yuan): 367 in 2023, projected to grow to 456 in 2024 (24.0% YoY), 520 in 2025 (14.2% YoY), 618 in 2026 (18.7% YoY), and 740 in 2027 (19.9% YoY) [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 325 in 2023, projected to grow to 398 in 2024 (22.5% YoY), 454 in 2025 (14.2% YoY), 539 in 2026 (18.7% YoY), and 647 in 2027 (19.9% YoY) [8] - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.55 in 2023, projected to increase to 0.68 in 2024, 0.77 in 2025, 0.92 in 2026, and 1.10 in 2027 [8] - Gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 24.6% in 2023 to 25.6% in 2025-2027 [8] Valuation and Price Target - The target price is set at 19.40 yuan, based on a 25 times price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting a 20% premium over comparable companies [6]
9月阅兵将首次亮相多款新型装备,看好新质生产力与商业航天方向
Orient Securities· 2025-08-25 03:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming September military parade will showcase multiple new types of equipment, indicating an expansion in investment for advanced equipment technology during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [11][15]. - Guangdong Province has released comprehensive policy support for the commercial aerospace sector, which is expected to accelerate the progress of satellite networking and related infrastructure [15][17]. - The current geopolitical climate and military competition are intensifying, with China's main battle equipment technology rapidly advancing to world-class levels in various fields such as radar, drones, and military aircraft [15][11]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Military Parade and Equipment Display - The September military parade will feature a significant number of new equipment types, marking a first for the new military structure and showcasing advanced weaponry from domestic active service [12][15]. - The parade will include various formations and equipment, highlighting the modernization and capabilities of the military [12][13]. 1.2 Policy Support for Commercial Aerospace - Guangdong's policies aim for the commercial aerospace and related industries to reach a scale of 300 billion yuan by 2026, with a focus on key technologies such as reusable rockets [15][17]. - The policies encompass the entire commercial aerospace industry chain, including satellite constellation construction and ground station deployment [15][18]. 1.3 Continued Optimism for the Military Industry - As the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches, a new phase of equipment construction is set to begin, with a focus on domestic demand and advancements in new quality production [19]. - The report suggests monitoring the performance of upstream components and key raw materials, which are crucial for the lifecycle of various military equipment [19]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks in the military electronics sector include Zhihua Technology (000733, Buy), Aerospace Electronics (600879, Not Rated), and others [19]. - In the new quality and domain sector, recommended stocks include Haige Communication (002465, Buy) and others [19]. - For the aerospace propulsion chain, stocks like West Superconductor (688122, Buy) are highlighted [19].
华虹半导体(01347):需求景气度持续向好,产能提升驱动未来增长
Orient Securities· 2025-08-25 02:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The demand outlook remains positive, with capacity expansion driving future growth [2][12]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth, with projected revenues of $2.419 billion in 2025, $2.949 billion in 2026, and $3.390 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 22%, and 15% respectively [6][12]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with the monthly capacity increasing from 391 thousand wafers in Q4 2024 to 447 thousand wafers in Q2 2025 [12]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for the company's net asset per share for 2025-2027 is $3.66, $3.75, and $3.87 respectively, with a target price of HKD 79.63 based on a comparable company average PB of 2.8 times for 2025 [4][13]. - The company reported a revenue of $566 million in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [12]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 10.9%, exceeding the company's guidance of 7%-9% [12].
信用债市场周观察:补跌后骑乘空间增大,继续挖掘中短端城投
Orient Securities· 2025-08-25 01:44
Group 1 - The report suggests that after a significant adjustment in the short credit market, there is an increased potential for gains, recommending a focus on mid to short-term credit investments [4][7][8] - The credit bond market has experienced a comprehensive valuation adjustment, with notable declines particularly in the short-end credits, leading to a mixed market sentiment [4][7][17] - The strategy continues to emphasize riding the steep parts of the yield curve, particularly in the 2Y to 3Y range, as these segments are seen as having the strongest certainty and stability [8][9][20] Group 2 - The weekly review indicates that the issuance of credit bonds remained stable, with a slight increase in maturity amounts, resulting in a deeper negative net financing [14][15] - The average issuance costs for new bonds across various ratings have significantly increased, with AAA and AA+ rated bonds seeing rises of 10bp and 13bp respectively [14][15] - The liquidity in the secondary market for credit bonds has further declined, with trading volumes and turnover rates decreasing [17][24] Group 3 - The report highlights that credit spreads across various grades and maturities have widened, indicating a trend of adjustment and potential risk in the market [20][22][24] - The credit spreads for local government bonds have also shown a widening trend, with an average increase of around 3bp across provinces [22][24] - The real estate sector has experienced the most significant widening in credit spreads, with some companies seeing increases of up to 6bp [24]
国产模型绑定国产芯片,国产AI芯片、交换芯片、应用值得关注
Orient Securities· 2025-08-25 00:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [5]. Core Insights - Domestic AI large models are achieving breakthroughs, and the performance of domestic AI chips and switching chips is continuously improving, suggesting sustained development in AI computing power and applications in China [3][7]. - Investor confidence in China's AI development is expected to continue rising, driven by advancements in domestic AI models and chips [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic AI Models and Chips - The report highlights the successful launch of DeepSeek V3.1, which utilizes UE8M0 FP8 technology, indicating a trend towards large-scale application of domestic chips [7]. - The continuous improvement in domestic AI chip design and manufacturing processes is expected to enhance market share for domestic computing power [7]. AI Applications - The report notes that domestic AI applications are likely to form a commercial closed loop, with significant partnerships such as Tesla collaborating with ByteDance's Volcano Engine for AI services in vehicles [7]. - The recognition of domestic models is anticipated to promote the practical application of AI agents [7]. AI Infrastructure and Switching Chips - The demand for switching chips is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing requirements for low latency and high bandwidth in AI training and inference processes [7]. - The report suggests that the domestic switching chip market will continue to develop alongside the trend of AI chip localization [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in AI computing power, such as Cambrian (688256, unrated), Haiguang Information (688041, Buy), and others [7]. - For AI applications, companies like Kingsoft Office (688111, Accumulate) and Tax Friend (603171, Buy) are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7]. - In the switching chip sector, companies like Shengke Communication (688702, unrated) and ZTE Corporation (000063, unrated) are mentioned [7].
华峰铝业(601702):中报点评:经营现金流环比改善,液冷市场前景广阔
Orient Securities· 2025-08-24 12:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.95 CNY based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2025 [3][7]. Core Views - The company has shown improvement in operating cash flow and has a promising outlook in the liquid cooling market, particularly in air conditioning and energy storage applications [11]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.35, 1.77, and 2.18 CNY respectively, reflecting a strategic response to current industry conditions [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 9,291 million CNY in 2023 to 16,469 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.7% [5]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1,013 million CNY in 2023 to 2,382 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 899 million CNY in 2023 to 2,179 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 35.1% in 2024 [5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 15.9% in 2023 to 18.1% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 9.7% to 13.2% over the same period [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on product innovation and has made significant advancements in research and development, including obtaining new patents and government subsidies [11]. - The strategic emphasis on high-strength, corrosion-resistant composite cooling plates and other innovative products positions the company well in emerging markets [11]. - The report highlights the potential of liquid cooling solutions in data centers and energy storage, which are expected to positively impact the company's processing fees in the future [11].
蓝特光学(688127):光学棱镜持续增长,玻璃非球面透镜空间广阔
Orient Securities· 2025-08-24 11:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 40.25 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and profit across multiple business lines, with a notable increase in gross margin [9]. - The optical prism business continues to grow, and there is substantial potential in the glass aspheric lens market [4][9]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth in its optical prism business and has developed new micro-prism products to enhance its product matrix [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 754 million CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 98.4%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 are 1,034 million CNY and 1,491 million CNY, respectively, indicating growth rates of 37.1% and 44.2% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 180 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 221 million CNY in 2024 and 343 million CNY in 2025, with growth rates of 87.3% and 55.6% [7][10]. - The gross margin is expected to be 42.1% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 39.9% in 2024, and then stabilizing around 41.1% in 2025 [7]. Business Segment Performance - The optical prism segment saw a revenue increase of 69% to 3.4 million CNY, with a gross margin improvement of nearly 10 percentage points to 33.2% [9]. - The glass aspheric lens segment is experiencing accelerated demand, particularly in automotive and handheld devices, with a revenue increase of 24% [9]. - The company is positioned well with leading clients in the rapidly growing sectors of handheld devices, optical modules, and automotive lenses [9].