Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive and parts industry is maintained as Neutral [5] Core Insights - The report anticipates that competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology will continue to expand their market share by 2025 [3][15] - The report suggests ongoing attention to humanoid robotics, Huawei's supply chain, Xiaomi's supply chain, T-chain, and intelligent driving industry companies [3][15] - The expected impact of tariff fluctuations on certain export chains in the automotive parts sector is considered minimal [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Figure AI has officially launched the Figure 03 humanoid robot, which is expected to have strong mass production certainty, with a target annual production capacity of 12,000 units in its first phase [12] - The collaboration between Sairus and ByteDance's Volcano Engine aims to accelerate the development of the domestic robotics industry [13] - Tesla's Cybercab prototype has entered the collision testing phase, indicating readiness for mass production by 2026 [14] Sales Tracking - In September, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 2.77 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while retail sales were 2.24 million units, up 6% year-on-year [19][22] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.5% [26][28] - The passenger vehicle and automotive parts sectors showed weaker performance, with the automotive parts sector experiencing a significant drop of 2.45% [26][30] Key Company Announcements - Sairus announced a cooperation framework with ByteDance to enhance the application of AI in the automotive industry [39] - BYD reported a sales figure of 396,300 units in September, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [43] - SAIC Motor's sales in September reached 439,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 40.4% [45]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 保持短久期、高流动性策略 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值小幅修复，底仓品种价值显现：可转 | 2025-09-29 | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry in China [6] Core Views - China's military trade market is expected to achieve new breakthroughs, with the successful establishment of a reusable rocket factory accelerating the low-orbit satellite network [2][11] - The procurement of 20 J-10CE fighter jets by Bangladesh for $2.2 billion signifies the growing recognition of Chinese military products and the potential for market expansion [10][15] - The completion of the first reusable rocket factory in Wenchang, Hainan, marks a significant advancement in commercial aerospace infrastructure, paving the way for scalable and reusable rocket development [10][17] Summary by Sections Military Trade Developments - Bangladesh plans to invest $2.2 billion to purchase 20 J-10CE fighter jets, with the total procurement cost including training and logistics expected to reach $2.2 billion [10][15] - The international competitiveness of Chinese military equipment is increasing due to enhanced technology performance and cost-effectiveness, transitioning from a focus on individual product advantages to comprehensive solution capabilities [16] Commercial Aerospace Advancements - The first reusable rocket assembly and testing factory in Wenchang, Hainan, has been completed, which will significantly enhance the production capacity and testing capabilities for reusable rockets [10][17] - The factory is expected to lower launch costs and accelerate the progress of commercial low-orbit satellite networks [17] Current Market Outlook - The military industry has stabilized recently, with a focus on domestic demand and military trade developments as key growth drivers [20] - The report highlights the importance of upstream components and key materials in supporting the lifecycle of various military equipment, indicating potential benefits from demand amplification effects [20] - The report suggests continued optimism for the military sector, with specific investment recommendations for various companies within the industry [10][20]

Group 1 - The overall situation between China and the US is expected to converge, with limited adverse effects on the market [3][15]. - China has taken proactive measures indicating a shift in power dynamics, enhancing national governance capabilities and boosting investor confidence in A-shares [4][16]. - The A-share market is predicted to experience short-term weakness but long-term strength, maintaining a sideways trend with limited downside in the short term [5][17]. Group 2 - Investment opportunities remain concentrated in the technology sector, particularly in computer/media and electronics/communication, with a focus on industrial software, foundational software, and AI applications [6][18]. - Strategic metals are favored, with gold expected to outperform rare earths and copper, driven by factors such as currency credit deterioration and demand from global infrastructure upgrades [7][19]. - The impact of tariff conflicts is deemed limited, as companies have already prepared for such risks [8][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry in China, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. plans to impose export controls on "critical software," which includes both foundational and industrial software, highlighting its strategic importance in the ongoing U.S.-China technological competition [9]. - The domestic market for industrial design software is expected to accelerate its localization process due to potential U.S. export restrictions, with significant growth opportunities identified in this area [3][9]. - The report emphasizes that while industrial design software has a low localization rate, the industrial control systems have a relatively higher domestic market share, particularly in DCS systems [9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that if the U.S. imposes export controls on foundational software, it will significantly boost the localization of industrial and foundational software. Key investment targets include: - Industrial Software: Zhongwang Software (688083, Buy), Huada Jiutian (301269, Buy), and others [3]. - Foundational Software: Dameng Data (688692, Not Rated), Dongtu Technology (300353, Not Rated), and others [3]. Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic significance of critical software, which includes operating systems and databases, and notes that the domestic market share for PC operating systems has reached 20-25%, while server operating systems are at 40-50% [9]. - The report highlights that the localization rate for industrial operating systems is still low, at around 10-15%, but is expected to improve as domestic products gain traction [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses, prompting a rapid reduction in production capacity, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][8] - The report highlights the importance of quality companies in the swine breeding sector, which continue to show profitability and increasing dividend rates as key drivers for long-term performance and valuation [3] - The report emphasizes the upward trend in grain prices and the favorable fundamentals in planting and seed industries, indicating significant investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The current market for swine is under pressure, with prices for fat pigs nearing 11 yuan/kg and weaned piglet prices dropping below 200 yuan/head, leading to widespread losses in the industry [8][11] - As of August 2025, the number of breeding sows has slightly decreased to 40.38 million heads, with slaughter volumes increasing significantly [8] - The average price of commodity pigs fell to 14.23 yuan/kg in August, a decrease of 4.1% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year, indicating a rapid deterioration in industry profitability [8][49] Poultry Industry - The white feather broiler price has slightly decreased to 6.88 yuan/kg, while chick prices have increased to 3.22 yuan/bird, reflecting a mixed market response [15][22] - The yellow feather chicken price remains strong at 7.09 yuan/jin, supported by seasonal demand [22] Feed Industry - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with corn prices averaging 2304.12 yuan/ton, down 2.70% week-on-week, while wheat and soybean meal prices have seen slight increases [27][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the swine breeding sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, which are expected to benefit from ongoing capacity reductions [3][41] - It also suggests that the recovery in swine inventory will boost demand for feed and animal health products, benefiting companies like Haida Group and Reap Bio [3][41] - In the planting sector, the report identifies investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][41] - The pet food sector is highlighted as a growth area, with increasing domestic brand recognition and market expansion [3][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that gold and rare earths may see a resurgence, while it also highlights opportunities for copper investments during market dips [8][13] - The report emphasizes that the deterioration of fiat currency credit and the need for safe-haven assets are driving gold prices upward, with gold stabilizing above $4,000 [8][13] - The upgrade of export controls on rare earths is seen as a strategic catalyst, potentially enhancing the value of the sector [14] - The report expresses confidence in the mid-term rise of copper prices due to fundamental supply-demand changes, recommending investors to look for opportunities in the copper sector [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to deteriorating fiat currency credit and increased demand for safe-haven assets [8][13] - The rare earth sector is poised for a strategic boost following the upgrade of export controls, which may lead to higher domestic prices [14] - The copper market is anticipated to experience a mid-term price increase driven by supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and data centers [15][16] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry's profitability is under short-term pressure, with costs providing some support for steel prices [17] - Iron and steel production has seen slight declines, with traditional peak season demand yet to be validated [19] - Overall steel inventories are rising, indicating a potential oversupply situation [22] - Steel prices are maintaining a weak and stable trend, with notable price differentiation among various steel products [36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in August 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt are stable, while nickel prices have shown slight increases [50][51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry is facing short-term challenges due to renewed US-China trade disputes, which have raised concerns about demand and led to a significant drop in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 4.8% [8] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for the petrochemical industry remains positive, as high tariffs from trade disputes are unlikely to have a lasting impact, and domestic companies have gained valuable experience in navigating such challenges [8] - The green low-carbon sector is expected to become a new industry trend, with significant market potential for green methanol, bio-aviation fuel, and green polyester, which are anticipated to achieve rapid growth as they align with sustainable development goals [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends buying shares of Wan Kai New Materials (301216) for its leading position in the green polyester industry. Other recommended stocks include: - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035) - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749) - Hailier (603639) - Sinopec (600028) - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) - Wanhua Chemical (600309) - Huayi Group (600623) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 26.25 CNY, based on a PE valuation of 25 times for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved the highest sales in the industry in September, with expectations for multiple new car launches to further boost sales [2][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.05, 1.17, and 1.31 CNY respectively, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 726,199 million CNY, with a slight growth of 0.7% year-on-year. However, a significant decline of 15.4% is expected in 2024 [5][12]. - Operating profit is forecasted to recover significantly from 10,376 million CNY in 2024 to 19,966 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 92.4% [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rebound from 1,666 million CNY in 2024 to 12,118 million CNY in 2025, marking a substantial increase of 627.2% [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 10.5% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 1.9% to 2.0% in the following years [5][12]. Sales and Market Position - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 439,800 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 40.4% and a month-on-month increase of 21.0%, leading the industry [11]. - The sales of the company's self-owned brands in September reached 93,700 units, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 245.3% [11]. - The MG brand achieved over 220,000 units in deliveries in Europe, maintaining double-digit growth [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6]. Core Insights - The demand for power-saving solutions is critical for AI end-users deploying ASIC chips, as the power consumption of AI computing continues to rise significantly [9][13]. - Metal soft magnetic powder cores are essential for ASIC power modules, providing higher current capacity and better thermal stability compared to traditional ferrite materials [9][56]. - The market for metal soft magnetic powder cores is expected to grow substantially due to the increasing deployment of ASIC chips and the upcoming DDR6 memory standards, which will further drive demand for high-performance inductors [9][26]. Summary by Sections Pain Points: Power Saving as a Core Concern for ASIC Deployment - The power consumption of NVIDIA's AI computing cards has increased dramatically, with the latest models reaching up to 2700W, highlighting the urgent need for power-efficient solutions [13][14]. - ASIC chips offer higher efficiency and lower power consumption compared to traditional GPU chips, making them a preferred choice for AI applications [19][24]. - The shift towards self-developed ASIC chips by major AI companies is driven by the need to optimize power efficiency and reduce costs [29][27]. Materials: Metal Soft Magnetic Powder Cores as Essential Components - The vertical stacking design of power modules significantly reduces PDN losses, enhancing overall power efficiency [46]. - The demand for smaller and more efficient inductors is increasing due to the compact design of vertical power modules [48]. - Metal soft magnetic powder cores can handle higher currents and provide better performance in high-power applications compared to traditional materials [56][57]. Market: Dual-Drive from GPU and ASIC - The demand for inductors is projected to exceed 400 million units as AI companies ramp up their ASIC chip production [9][11]. - The introduction of DDR6 memory is expected to further increase the usage of inductors, as it requires improved power integrity and efficiency [9][19]. Application Expansion: DDR6 Memory to Drive Growth - The transition to DDR6 memory will necessitate a higher volume of inductors, as it introduces new power management requirements [19][4]. - The integration of PMIC solutions in DDR5 has already set a precedent for increased inductor usage, which will continue with DDR6 [19][4]. Industry Comparison: Competitive Advantages of Platinum New Materials - Platinum New Materials holds a competitive edge in the production of metal soft magnetic powder due to its advanced atomization technology, which results in finer particle sizes and lower oxygen content [9][21]. - The company's production capacity is expected to ramp up significantly, reaching 300 million units by 2026, positioning it well within the growing market [9][12].