Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Increased external uncertainties and the continuation of loose monetary policy are expected to lead to a long-term downward trend in overall expected returns, making low-volatility dividend strategies effective [3][25]. - The reform of public funds is anticipated to help banks achieve excess returns by shifting asset allocation styles [3]. - The insurance preset interest rate may be lowered again in Q3 2025, which could further enhance the tolerance for dividend yields, supporting absolute returns for banks [3][25]. - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to alleviated pressures on non-interest income growth [3][25]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In May 2025, social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with a total increment of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan compared to the previous year [9][10]. - Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly contributing to social financing growth [11]. - Corporate direct financing also saw a year-on-year increase of 125.2 billion yuan, mainly driven by a rise in bond financing [11]. - Loan growth showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% in May 2025, reflecting weak demand and debt replacement effects [16]. M1 and M2 Growth - M1 increased by 2.3% year-on-year in May 2025, with a notable month-on-month recovery of 0.8 percentage points, while M2 grew by 7.9% year-on-year [19]. - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates narrowed to 5.6%, indicating improved liquidity conditions [19]. Investment Recommendations - Two main investment lines are suggested: 1. Focus on convertible bonds with rebound potential, specifically Hangzhou Bank (600926, Buy) and Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy) [26]. 2. Left-side positioning in high-dividend stocks, with recommendations for major state-owned banks such as CITIC Bank (601998, Not Rated), Industrial Bank (601166, Not Rated), Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy), and Agricultural Bank (601288, Not Rated) [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [5]. Core Insights - Domestic home appliance sales are expected to benefit from policy support, with the air conditioning peak season anticipated to see high temperatures and low inventory, making the second quarter demand promising. Changes in national subsidy methods are expected to have limited disruption [3][8]. - The online retail performance in May was strong, with significant year-on-year growth in various categories, including a 31.7% increase in TV sales and a 46.0% increase in air conditioning sales [8]. - The report highlights the potential for emerging markets in exports, while concerns regarding exports to the U.S. due to global capacity layout are deemed manageable. The reshaping of the global supply chain presents new opportunities [3][8]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - In May, online retail sales for home appliances showed impressive growth, with air conditioning sales up 46.0% year-on-year and cumulative growth of 26.9% from January to May [8]. - The average price of air conditioning units decreased slightly by 0.7% in May, but the report predicts that price declines are nearing an end as the peak season approaches [8]. Policy and Subsidy Impact - The report discusses changes in national subsidy methods, suggesting that the new approach will likely alleviate price competition among mid-to-low-end brands. The expected shift to a dual-channel distribution for subsidies is anticipated to maintain consumer spending [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality white goods leaders that benefit from domestic policy continuation and are actively expanding overseas, such as Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [3]. - It also suggests monitoring companies that are likely to benefit from the reshaping of market shares in mature overseas markets, such as Hisense Visual Technology and Ousheng Electric [3].

- The report discusses the impact of dividends on stock index futures, specifically for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE 50), CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures[1][2][3] - The latest dividend forecast model predicts the dividend points for the June contracts of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices to be 3.70, 4.71, 10.68, and 10.32 respectively[10] - The annualized hedging costs (excluding dividends, calculated on a 365-day basis) for the June contracts of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are 14.67%, 4.14%, 0.51%, and 9.81% respectively[10] - The report provides detailed calculations of the impact of dividends on the futures contracts, including the remaining impact of dividends on the contracts and the annualized hedging costs (excluding dividends, calculated on both 365-day and 243-day bases)[10][11][12][13] - The process for predicting dividends involves estimating the net profit of component stocks, calculating the total pre-tax dividends for each stock, calculating the impact of dividends on the index, and predicting the impact of dividends on each contract[19][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][30] - The theoretical pricing model for stock index futures is discussed, including both discrete and continuous dividend distribution scenarios[31][32] Model and Factor Construction - **Model Name**: Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict the impact of dividends on stock index futures by estimating the net profit of component stocks and calculating the total pre-tax dividends[19][22] - **Construction Process**: 1. Estimate the net profit of component stocks using annual reports, quick reports, warnings, and analyst profit forecasts[22][23] 2. Calculate the total pre-tax dividends for each stock based on the estimated net profit and dividend rate[22][23] 3. Calculate the impact of dividends on the index using the formula: $$ \text{w_{it} = \frac{w_{i0} \times (1+R)}{\sum_{1}^{n} w_{i0} \times (1+R)}} $$ where \( w_{i0} \) is the accurate weight of stock \( i \) at time \( t0 \), and \( R \) is the rate of change in stock price[24] 4. Predict the impact of dividends on each contract by summing up all dividends before the contract's delivery date[28][30] - **Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to predict the impact of dividends on stock index futures, considering various factors such as net profit estimation and dividend rates[19][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][30] Model Backtest Results - **SSE 50 Index Futures (June Contract)**: - **Dividend Points**: 3.70 - **Actual Spread**: -11.23 - **Dividend-Adjusted Spread**: -7.53 - **Remaining Impact of Dividends**: 0.14% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (365 days)**: 14.67% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (243 days)**: 13.67%[10] - **CSI 300 Index Futures (June Contract)**: - **Dividend Points**: 4.71 - **Actual Spread**: -7.78 - **Dividend-Adjusted Spread**: -3.07 - **Remaining Impact of Dividends**: 0.12% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (365 days)**: 4.14% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (243 days)**: 3.86%[11] - **CSI 500 Index Futures (June Contract)**: - **Dividend Points**: 10.68 - **Actual Spread**: -11.24 - **Dividend-Adjusted Spread**: -0.56 - **Remaining Impact of Dividends**: 0.19% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (365 days)**: 0.51% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (243 days)**: 0.48%[12] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures (June Contract)**: - **Dividend Points**: 10.32 - **Actual Spread**: -21.81 - **Dividend-Adjusted Spread**: -11.49 - **Remaining Impact of Dividends**: 0.17% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (365 days)**: 9.81% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (243 days)**: 9.15%[13]

Export Performance - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in the previous month[1] - Traditional consumer goods exports showed stabilization at low levels, with footwear, toys, luggage, and clothing down by -7.9%, -4.5%, -12.1%, and -0.5% respectively[5] - Mechanical and electrical products exports were strong, with an overall year-on-year growth of 8.1% in May 2025[5] Import Trends - Imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month[1] - Agricultural product imports rose significantly by 4%, driven by increased soybean imports from South America, while crude oil and natural gas imports fell by -19.4% and -17.1% respectively[5] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the US saw a significant decline of -34.5%, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, and other regions showed positive growth rates of 12%, 14.8%, and 6.2% respectively[5] - The reliance on Chinese imports for essential goods in the US remains high, with 46.8% classified as "just-in-time" goods[5] Future Outlook - New export orders are expected to reflect in June, as there is typically a one-month lag in the impact of new orders on export figures[5] - The potential impact of the new US customs system on indirect trade with China remains a point of interest, as non-US export growth remains robust[5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Carhart Four-Factor Model **Construction Idea**: Incorporates momentum factor into the Fama-French three-factor model to capture the "stronger gets stronger" phenomenon in stock markets[14] **Construction Process**: Formula: $ R_{p}-r_{f}\!\sim\!\!\alpha+\beta_{1}(R_{M}-r_{f})+\beta_{2}(R_{M}-r_{f})^{2}+\beta_{3}S M B+\beta_{4}H M L+\varepsilon_{p} $ - $R_{p}-r_{f}$ represents excess return of the portfolio relative to the risk-free rate - $R_{M}-r_{f}$ represents market excess return - $SMB$ and $HML$ represent size and value premiums respectively[28][30] **Evaluation**: Widely applicable across various asset classes, but its effectiveness in predicting future returns in A-shares is limited due to strong short-term reversal effects[14][17] - **Model Name**: Industry-Stripped Alpha Momentum **Construction Idea**: Removes market and industry beta risks to isolate alpha returns for momentum factor construction[47] **Construction Process**: Formula: $ R_{p}-r_{f}{\sim}\alpha+\beta_{1}(R_{M}-r_{f})+\beta_{2}(R_{M}-r_{f})^{2}+\sum_{i=1}^{11}\beta_{2+i}\,l n d_{i}+\varepsilon_{p} $ - Adds industry index returns ($ln d_{i}$) to the regression model to strip industry beta risks[51] **Evaluation**: Improves stability compared to traditional momentum factors but shows weaker positive selection effects since 2019[52][53] - **Model Name**: Low-Diversification Momentum **Construction Idea**: Identifies dates with low fund diversification to reduce beta risk interference and enhance predictive power[5][56] **Construction Process**: - Groups fund daily returns by diversification levels (using standard deviation of returns) - Constructs three sub-factors: low-diversification return factor, sorting momentum factor, and Sharpe ratio factor - Combines these sub-factors equally to form the low-diversification momentum factor[65][93] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power with low correlation to traditional momentum factors, indicating reduced beta risk interference[93][104] Model Backtesting Results - **Carhart Four-Factor Model**: - Rank IC: 6.01% (past 122 days alpha momentum)[31] - Rank ICIR: 0.57 (past 122 days alpha momentum)[31] - Quarterly long-short win rate: 66.67%[31] - **Industry-Stripped Alpha Momentum**: - Rank IC: 7.81% (past 122 days)[53] - Rank ICIR: 0.97 (past 122 days)[53] - Quarterly long-short win rate: 69.92%[53] - **Low-Diversification Momentum**: - Rank IC: 10.10%[93] - Rank ICIR: 1.09[93] - Quarterly long-short win rate: 71%[93] - Annualized long-short return: 10.81%[98] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Historical Return Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses past fund returns to predict future performance[19] **Construction Process**: - Calculates returns over different time windows (e.g., past 20, 61, 122 days) - Tests predictive power using Rank IC and Rank ICIR metrics[20][22] **Evaluation**: Short-term returns show weak predictive power; long-term returns improve prediction but remain unstable[22][23] - **Factor Name**: Sharpe Ratio Factor **Construction Idea**: Adjusts fund returns for volatility to improve stability[24] **Construction Process**: - Calculates Sharpe ratios over different time windows (e.g., past 20, 61, 122 days) - Tests predictive power using Rank IC and Rank ICIR metrics[25][26] **Evaluation**: Stability improves compared to historical return factor but fails to address beta risk interference effectively[26][27] - **Factor Name**: Low-Diversification Return Factor **Construction Idea**: Focuses on low-diversification dates to reduce beta risk interference[65] **Construction Process**: - Groups fund daily returns by diversification levels - Uses average returns of the lowest-diversification group as the factor score[65][67] **Evaluation**: Strong predictive power with stable performance across different time windows[67][72] Factor Backtesting Results - **Historical Return Factor**: - Rank IC: 6.44% (past 244 days)[20] - Rank ICIR: 0.54 (past 244 days)[20] - Quarterly long-short win rate: 59.35%[20] - **Sharpe Ratio Factor**: - Rank IC: 6.44% (past 244 days)[25] - Rank ICIR: 0.64 (past 244 days)[25] - Quarterly long-short win rate: 61.79%[25] - **Low-Diversification Return Factor**: - Rank IC: 10.03% (past 3 months)[68] - Rank ICIR: 1.06 (past 3 months)[68] - Quarterly long-short win rate: 69.11%[68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 62.16 CNY based on a 37x PE ratio for 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The PHM (Predictive Health Management) industry is characterized by low penetration rates, diverse application scenarios, and deepening technological accumulation, indicating significant growth potential [7][11][17]. - The company possesses three competitive advantages: self-developed software and hardware with a platform architecture, a leading number of fault case accumulations, and a strong customer base among industry leaders [7][30][48]. - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth driven by product expansion, channel reforms, and increasing demand for subscription services [7][76]. Summary by Sections Industry Characteristics - The PHM industry has low penetration rates, with only 14% of companies implementing predictive maintenance despite a 50% digitalization rate [16]. - The global predictive maintenance market is projected to grow from 6.9 billion USD in 2021 to 28.2 billion USD by 2026, with a CAGR of 32.4% [17]. - The demand for PHM spans various industries, driven by the need for effective equipment maintenance solutions [22]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a platform-based architecture and self-developed products, allowing for rapid replication and high standardization [30]. - It has accumulated over 30,000 fault cases, enhancing the performance of its diagnostic algorithms [40]. - The company serves numerous leading clients across various sectors, establishing a strong foundation for industry penetration [48]. Growth Potential - The company has expanded its product offerings and upgraded existing solutions, leading to increased average product prices [55][60]. - A successful pilot in the coal industry resulted in a 63.6% revenue growth in 2024, indicating the effectiveness of its channel reform strategy [67]. - The subscription service model is expected to gain traction as the warranty periods for existing equipment expire, enhancing recurring revenue streams [73]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share of 1.68 CNY, 2.22 CNY, and 2.91 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with significant revenue growth anticipated [2][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry in China as of June 11, 2025 [4] Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a transition from a surplus of deposits to a structural shortage, with significant differentiation between state-owned banks and smaller banks [8][27] - Recent adjustments in deposit rates are expected to stabilize the deposit base of large banks, despite ongoing deposit disintermediation [36][45] - The report highlights three main investment themes: convertible bonds with rebound potential, high-dividend stocks, and banks with long-term liabilities and capital advantages [40] Summary by Sections 1. Review of Deposit Growth: From Surplus to Shortage - Since 2009, deposit growth has lagged behind loan growth, indicating a shift in liquidity conditions from surplus to structural shortage [12][14] - The transition is attributed to changes in monetary policy and the rise of wealth management products, which have contributed to deposit disintermediation [19][22] 2. New Characteristics of Deposit Growth in 2025: From Industry-wide to Structural Shortage - The overall deposit gap in the banking sector has shown signs of improvement, but state-owned banks continue to face significant deposit shortages [27][28] - In Q1 2025, the deposit growth rate for large banks was only 71%, down from an average of 80% since 2019, indicating a potential arbitrage chain where entities take low-interest loans from large banks and deposit them in smaller banks for higher interest [32][34] 3. New Round of Deposit Rate Adjustments and Stability of Large Banks' Liabilities - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding the current round of deposit disintermediation, noting that past adjustments have had diminishing impacts over time [36][38] - Large banks are expected to maintain deposit stability due to regulatory constraints and the rapid adjustment of deposit rates by smaller banks [45] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies three key investment lines: 1. Convertible bonds with rebound potential, specifically targeting Hangzhou Bank and Nanjing Bank [40] 2. High-dividend stocks, with a focus on CITIC Bank, Industrial Bank, and Jiangsu Bank [40] 3. Banks with long-term liabilities and capital advantages, such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][8] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant changes and is adapting to the evolving market conditions in the gold and jewelry sector, despite facing short-term operational pressures due to high gold prices [7] - The company has established a joint venture in Northeast China to enhance its business operations in that region, indicating a strategic move to strengthen its market presence [7] - The company is actively pursuing online sales channels and has launched its official flagship store on Tmall, aiming to integrate online and offline sales [7] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.86, 3.30, and 3.75 yuan respectively, with a target price of 62.92 yuan based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [3][8] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 71.436 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 49.371 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 57.047 billion yuan in 2027 [3][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 2.214 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.496 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 1.959 billion yuan in 2027 [3][10] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 8.3% in 2023 to 9.1% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to remain stable around 3.0% to 3.4% during the forecast period [3][10] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 20.4% in 2023 to 11.3% in 2025, before recovering to 11.7% in 2027 [3][10] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 26.893 billion yuan as of June 10, 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][8] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant changes and is adapting to the evolving market conditions in the gold and jewelry sector, despite facing short-term operational pressures due to high gold prices [7] - The company has made strategic moves to enhance its online presence and brand collaboration, which are expected to drive future growth [7] - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 projected at 2.86, 3.30, and 3.75 yuan respectively, leading to a target price of 62.92 yuan based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [3][8] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 71,436 million yuan, with a projected decline to 49,371 million yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 57,047 million yuan in 2027 [3][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 2,214 million yuan in 2023 to 1,496 million yuan in 2025, before rising to 1,959 million yuan in 2027 [3][10] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 8.3% in 2023 to 9.1% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 3.0% to 3.4% during the same period [3][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 5,838 marketing outlets as of the end of 2024, indicating a slight reduction in its physical presence [7] - The establishment of a joint venture in Northeast China aims to standardize and accelerate business development in that region [7] - The company is focusing on integrating online and offline sales channels, enhancing its e-commerce capabilities, and addressing counterfeit issues [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 112.78 CNY [3][4] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading multi-brand beauty group in the new development stage, with strong competitive advantages in its main brands [2][8] - The company has a well-established multi-brand portfolio, including seven differentiated brands covering skincare, makeup, and hair care, and is the first domestic beauty company to exceed 10 billion CNY in revenue [8] - Concerns regarding the transition to the second generation of leadership are noted, but the report emphasizes the positive long-term impact of this change on the company's development [8] - The company is actively enhancing its product innovation, R&D investment, and digital transformation, indicating a strong commitment to future growth [8] - The report highlights the potential for international expansion and acquisitions as part of the company's growth strategy, particularly in new sectors such as children's products, perfumes, and men's skincare [8] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 4.56 CNY, 5.36 CNY, and 6.06 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][9] - Revenue is expected to grow from 8,905 million CNY in 2023 to 15,577 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [3][11] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 1,503 million CNY in 2023 to 2,923 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][11] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 69.9% in 2023 to 73.0% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][11]