Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from policy support and the active new consumption market, with high temperatures and low inventory during the air conditioning peak season likely to boost demand [2] - The adjustment of tariffs between Vietnam and the US is seen as a positive signal, enhancing the competitiveness of home appliance production capacity in Southeast Asia [6] - The potential for emerging markets in exports is promising, and the global supply chain advantages should be emphasized [2][6] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on quality white goods leaders that benefit from domestic policy continuity and are actively expanding overseas, such as Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, Buy), and Hisense Home Appliances (000921, not rated) [2] - Companies like Hisense Visual (600060, Overweight) and Ousheng Electric (301187, Buy) are recommended for their potential in mature overseas markets and short-term global supply chain advantages [2] - The report highlights the positive changes in leading clean and small appliance companies, recommending Stone Technology (688169, Buy) and Bear Electric (002959, Overweight) [2] - It also suggests monitoring kitchen appliance companies like Robam Appliances (002508, Buy) and Vatti Corporation (002035, not rated) as the negative impact from real estate eases [2] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the production capacity layout in Southeast Asia is characterized by both offensive and defensive strategies, which may enhance global competitiveness in the long term [6] - The profitability of production in Southeast Asia is expected to gradually improve as local supply chains become more complete, reducing costs [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with global production capacity layouts, which will enhance their bargaining power and profitability in the context of unstable trade policies with the US [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [5] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on investment opportunities in the stable and high-dividend electro-aluminum sector [2][9] - Short-term demand concerns are alleviated, with a greater emphasis on supply-side logic for mid-term investments [8][13] - Long-term stable and low-cost electricity supply is a critical constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - The supply-demand balance is expected to ensure stable profitability and dividends, making the electro-aluminum sector a true dividend asset [14] Summary by Sections Electro-Aluminum Sector - Concerns about downstream demand affecting short-term profitability are noted, but the report argues that short-term demand is not a worry [8][13] - Inventory levels in the electro-aluminum sector are decreasing, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [8][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable, low-cost electricity supply as a hard constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - Future profitability is expected to be stable, with major companies potentially achieving a dividend yield close to 6% [14] Steel Sector - The steel industry is entering a demand lull, with a focus on monitoring production reduction policies [15] - Rebar production has increased significantly, with a slight rise in consumption [15][16] - Total steel inventory has seen a slight increase week-on-week but a significant decrease year-on-year [22] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the overall price index down by 0.49% [35][36] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in May 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 31.37% [39] - The production of new energy vehicles in China has also risen sharply, with a 33.02% increase in production [43] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown an upward trend, indicating a robust market [48][49]

清洗和电镀设备国内龙头，平台化+差异化 打开天花板 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 3.24、4.04、4.63 元，根据可比公司 25 年 42 倍 PE，对应目标价为 136.08 元，首次覆盖给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求不及预期风险，国内竞争加剧，技术迭代风险，政策变化风险，假设条件 变化影响测算结果。 公司主要财务信息 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 2.17 | 11.85 | 9.28 | 33.89 | | 相对表现% | 1.18 | 9.18 | 7.86 | 20.53 | | 沪深 300% | 0.99 | 2.67 | 1.42 | 13.36 | | 薛宏伟 | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | 韩潇锐 | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860 ...

盐津铺子 002847.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年07月01日） | 81.35 元 | | 目标价格 | 91.84 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 99.98/35.02 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 27,278/24,572 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 22,191 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.28 | -7.9 | 21 | 89.83 | | 相对表现% | -0.71 | -10.57 | 19.58 | 76.47 | | 沪深 300% | 0.99 | 2.67 | 1.42 | 13.36 | 谢宁铃 xieningling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520070001 ⚫ 出海布局升级，开启全球化第二增长曲线。 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 经济短期动能增强，但实体经营预期下行 ——6 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 可以交叉印证的是，采购、库存、生产经营预期等分项的走势依然显示当前新出口 订单可能短单居多，长单不足，导致当下产需回暖，但对美国关税豁免到期后的经 营预期依然偏弱。6 月原材料库存、产成品库存、采购量、进口 PMI 分别为 48%、 48.1%、50.2%、47.8%（47.4%、46.5%、47.6%、47.1%），均上升，但生产经 营活动预期为 52%（52.5%）。 | 缩量与前置：关税反复后的出口预判 | 2025-06-30 | | --- | --- | | 东方战略观察：伊以冲突走向缓和，全球 | 2025-06-28 | | 风险偏好提升 | | | 美元短期反弹，并不意味趋势反转：—— | 2025-06-26 | | 海外札记 20250623 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 6 月 PMI 数据延续回升趋势，结构特点大体与上个月相同，但上行斜率放缓，其中 暗含了新的线索。 ...

电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 利基 DRAM 供需格局重塑中，行情景气度 持续 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 利基存储市场供需格局重塑中，同时叠加 AI 驱动和国产替代机遇，建议关注兆易创 新、北京君正、复旦微电、德明利、朗科科技、东芯股份、江波龙、佰维存储、恒 烁股份、万润科技、深科技、同有科技、普冉股份、聚辰股份等。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求增长不及预期；原厂退出进展不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 02 日 看好（维持） | 薛宏伟 | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | 韩潇锐 | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | 朱茜 zhuqian@ori ...

宏观经济 | 专题报告 风险事件预计进入频发窗口，但市场走强 趋势未必逆转 ——海外札记 20250630 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 美元短期反弹，并不意味趋势反转：—— ...

合作进军香港软饮市场，拓展区域贡献增 量 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 42667.22 | 42895.99 | 51095.56 | 59457.43 | 66556.46 | | 同比增长 (%) | 28.36% | 0.54% | 19.11% | 16.37% | 11.94% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 13846.75 | 13658.92 | 16904.94 | 19948.49 | 22537.61 | | 同比增长 (%) | 48.23% | -1.36% | 23.76% | 18.00% | 12.98% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 12079.50 | 12123.30 | 14505.51 | 16897.80 | 18858.36 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.19% | 0.36% | 19.65% | 16.49% | 11.60% | | 每股收益（元） | ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 国家治理成效预期上升推动风险偏好改善 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 特朗普关税表态反复变化进而反复影响资本市场的风险；抢出口、抢转口透支下半 年乃至明年增速大于预期的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 缩量与前置：关税反复后的出口预判 2025-06-30 对外开放更加确定，金融助力科创包容性 提升：2025 陆家嘴论坛点评 2025-06-20 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或 ...

尚界品牌持续推进，海外市场仍是重要增 长点 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.95、1.03、1.15 元，维持可比公司 25 年 PE 平均 估值 25 倍，目标价 23.75 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 公司改革力度低于预期、上汽自主及合资品牌销量低于预期、汽车出口政策变化影响、 汽车行业价格战风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 726,199 | 614,074 | 638,110 | 687,196 | 742,172 | | 同比增长 (%) | 0.7% | -15.4% | 3.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 25,937 | 10,376 | 18,093 | 19,735 | 21,995 | | 同比增长 (%) | -0.3% | -60.0% | 74.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万 ...