温氏股份 300498.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 生猪出栏创新高，黄鸡景气盈利延续 ——温氏股份 11 月销售简报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 1.01/1.62/2.35 元（原 25-26 年预测分别为 1.91/1.93 元，主要由于 24 年行业盈利后提升产能利用率导致周期波动，调整了营收 和毛利率），根据可比公司估值法，给予公司26年14x估值，对应目标价22.68元， 维持"买入评级"。 风险提示 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动；投资收益及公允价值 波动风险。 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年12月10日） | 16.86 元 | | 目标价格 | 22.68 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 19.88/15.11 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 665,393/596,271 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 112,185 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 农业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | ...

机械设备行业 行业研究 | 策略报告 科技成长攻守兼备，看好机械中盘蓝筹投 资机会 ——机械行业 2026 年度投资策略 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 展望 2026 年，我们认为机械行业总需求平稳增长，且科技赋能的重要性继续提升，则中 盘蓝筹公司更为受益。我们看好机械板块的中盘蓝筹公司投资机会，我们认为锂电设 备、工业母机、油气装备、叉车装备、欧美出海机械、工程机械、煤炭机械、轻工装备 等领域龙头公司具备中盘蓝筹属性。此外，人形机器人即将出现量产拐点，我们认为人 形机器人板块内的中盘蓝筹公司具有投资机会。 风险提示 宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、海外贸易摩擦加剧、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、 政策的不及预期将削弱板块预期、机器人厂商生产不及预期、人工智能模型发展慢于预 期 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 挖机 11 月销量增速回升，建议关注中盘蓝 | 2025-12-06 | | ...

Core Insights - The defense industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2025, marking a turning point in demand, with a new round of growth anticipated as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes and the "15th Five-Year Plan" begins [2][8][24] - The focus on new combat capabilities, including unmanned systems, deep-sea technology, and military AI, is expected to drive significant advancements in the industry [2][8][32] - The commercial aerospace and gas turbine markets are projected to grow, driven by increased demand and recovery in the aviation sector post-pandemic [2][8][31] Group 1: Industry Overview - The defense industry has stabilized and is showing signs of recovery after a period of demand stagnation from 2023 to 2024, with revenue growth returning in 2025 [8][14] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to create synergies between military and civilian sectors, enhancing overall industry growth [8][29] - Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, leading to heightened military spending globally, with defense budgets expected to continue rising [26][30] Group 2: New Combat Capabilities - New combat capabilities are expected to focus on unmanned systems, deep-sea operations, and information technology, with an emphasis on modernizing military capabilities [2][32][36] - The development of unmanned systems is seen as critical, with a growing emphasis on both offensive and defensive capabilities in modern warfare [2][43][44] - The integration of AI into military operations is expected to enhance decision-making and operational efficiency across various combat scenarios [2][32][36] Group 3: Commercial Opportunities - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for significant growth, particularly in the gas turbine market, driven by increased orders and recovery in engine deliveries [2][31][32] - The commercial space sector is also expanding, with advancements in satellite technology and launch capabilities expected to accelerate growth [2][31][32] - The military trade market is anticipated to strengthen, with Chinese equipment gaining recognition and market share in international markets, particularly in the Middle East [2][31][32]

新能源车销量同环比增长，成立子公司布 局机器人赛道 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 60.55、70.86、82.91 亿元，维持可比公司 25 年平 均 PE 估值 23 倍，目标价 14.03 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 长安自主品牌销量低于预期、长安合资品牌销量低于预期、行业价格战影响盈利。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 151,298 | 159,733 | 180,654 | 200,457 | 219,509 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.8% | 5.6% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 9.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 10,447 | 6,624 | 6,276 | 7,367 | 8,641 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.9% | -36.6% | -5.3% | 17.4% | 17.3% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 11,327 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-6332 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The National Medical Insurance Administration is strongly encouraging the high-quality development of innovative drugs, with clear policies supporting the payment side for innovative drugs. Domestic leading innovative drug companies are entering a commercial realization phase [3][7]. - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug List includes 127 products, with 114 successfully added, of which 50 are innovative drugs, marking a historical high. The overall negotiation success rate reached 90%, the highest in nearly seven years [7]. - The report highlights that the domestic innovative drug market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with leading companies like Heng Rui and Xin Da Biotech significantly benefiting from the new insurance policies [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (600276, Buy), Ke Lun Pharmaceutical (002422, Buy), Xin Li Tai (002294, Hold), Ao Sai Kang (002755, Buy), Jing Xin Pharmaceutical (002020, Buy), and others [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the introduction of the commercial insurance directory marks the beginning of a "new golden decade" for Chinese innovative drugs, with a focus on high clinical efficacy and value innovation [7]. - The report emphasizes that the competition in the GLP-1 market remains clear, with the entry of new drugs not significantly altering the competitive landscape for existing treatments [7].

Core Insights - The report indicates an upward trend in the market with improved win rates, despite limited upward space, maintaining a mid-term oscillating pattern [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and clear industry positions, which are expected to attract incremental capital during the market's upward oscillation [4][9] - The brokerage sector is poised for growth due to favorable policy changes and internal transformations, leading to a clearer growth path for brokerage firms [5][9] - The military industry is highlighted for its dual demand from domestic and international markets, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as new equipment construction plans are set to be clarified [6][9] Market Strategy - The report notes a slight recovery in market sentiment following favorable policies for domestic insurance companies and a shift in the U.S. national security strategy, leading to a rebound in non-bank financials, metals, communications, and AI sectors [9] - It suggests that the "slow bull" market will continue, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks being the backbone of the market's upward movement [4][9] Industry Strategy - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a positive regulatory environment that encourages the differentiation of firms, promoting high-quality development and improved profitability [5][9] - The military sector is projected to see growth driven by new production capabilities and the expansion of military trade markets, particularly in unmanned systems and advanced equipment [6][9]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 12 月鹰派降息或在预期之内，未来货币政 策路径或在会议之外 研究结论 风险提示 美联储降息不及预期的风险。 美国经济陷入衰退的风险。 通胀超预期上行的风险。 模型测算存在偏差的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 09 日 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S086052 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates an upward trend in the market with improved win rates, despite limited upward space, maintaining a mid-term oscillating pattern [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and clear industry positions, which are expected to attract incremental capital during the market's upward oscillation [4][9] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from favorable policies and internal transformations, leading to a clearer growth path for performance [5][9] - The military industry is highlighted for its dual demand dynamics, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as new equipment construction plans are clarified [6][9] Market Strategy - The market has shown a slight recovery in risk appetite due to favorable domestic insurance investment policies and a shift in U.S. national security strategy, leading to a rebound in non-bank financials, metals, communications, and AI sectors [9] - The report suggests that the current market environment favors structural opportunities within advanced manufacturing, non-bank finance, technology, and cyclical sectors [9] Sector Strategy - The brokerage sector is undergoing a transformation driven by regulatory support for quality firms, which is expected to enhance leverage and profitability [5][9] - The report outlines a differentiated development pattern in the brokerage industry, focusing on strengthening leading firms while allowing smaller institutions to specialize [9] Thematic Strategy - The military sector is poised for growth with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing new production capabilities in unmanned systems and deep-sea technology [6][9] - The report identifies potential growth areas in military trade and civil applications, particularly as domestic power systems advance [6][9]

风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 淡化总量，追求效能——理解 12 月政治局 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 非美地区进口需求韧性绝非无源之水： | 2025-12-02 | | --- | --- | | 2026 年出口展望 | | | 难有 ...