农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 12 月猪企出栏延续增量降重 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20260105-20260111） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化， 结合新生仔猪情况，预计 26Q2 猪价拐点显现，板块业绩长期提升可期，相关标的：牧原 股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498，买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)等。（2） 后周期板块，行业结构性成长趋势持续，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步 向下游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，买入)、瑞普生物 (300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向 好，大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未 评级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科(000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠 食行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持 续提升，龙头企业成长持续兑现，相关标的：乖宝宠物(301498，未评级)、中宠股 ...

TPU 材料性能优势明显，有望广泛应用于 人形机器人 ——装备新科技挖掘 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 人形机器人轻量化趋势不可逆转，未来电子皮肤有望得到广泛应用，推动灵巧手、 电子皮肤相关厂商订单增长，带动轻量化材料及部件供应商订单增长，相关标的包 括模塑科技(000700，未评级)、美瑞新材(300848，未评级)、福莱新材(605488，未 评级)。 风险提示 新材料研发进展不及预期、人形机器人厂商生产不及预期、机器人场景需求落地不明确 导致低于预期、机器人行业政策变化导致行业发展放缓、机器人行业融资不及预期。 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 10 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 海关统计挖机出口加速，行业健康发展的 | 2025-12-25 | | --- | --- | | 确定性上升：——机械行业跟踪 | | | 锂电装备厂商签获合同，行业订单有望继 | 2025-1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The U.S. military's raid on Venezuela is expected to boost oil shipping demand. Since December 2025, the U.S. has expanded sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, limiting oil exports. Following the raid on January 3, 2026, it was announced that Venezuela may transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., potentially easing sanctions and increasing compliant market shipping volumes [7] - Short-term oil exports from Venezuela may remain constrained, but long-term legalization could enhance compliant market shipping demand. Venezuela's oil production is projected to account for about 1% of global output by 2025, with oil shipping exports making up around 2% of global exports. Currently, 17% of these exports go to the U.S., with over 50% shipped to Asia via shadow fleets [7] - The tightening of sanctions since 2025 has improved oil shipping supply and demand dynamics. The U.S. has intensified sanctions on Iranian shadow fleets, increasing the proportion of sanctioned VLCCs from 8% to 17%. This is expected to further reduce Iranian oil export efficiency, while OPEC+ production increases may help balance the market [7] - Oil shipping rates are anticipated to rise significantly in 2025 due to ongoing crude oil production increases and continued sanctions on shadow fleets. The oil shipping market is expected to recover, with potential for better-than-expected conditions in 2026 [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Related investment targets include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026, not rated) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872, not rated) [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [8] Core Insights - December sales of excavators accelerated, indicating a structural recovery opportunity in the domestic market, with a projected continued growth in the industry through 2026 [3][8] - The market's expectations for structural improvements in the industry are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in risk assessments and favorable investment opportunities for mid-cap blue-chip companies [3] - Key investment targets include: Hengli Hydraulic (601100, not rated), Liugong (000528, not rated), Zoomlion (000157, Buy), XCMG (000425, not rated), and Sany Heavy Industry (600031, not rated) [3] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Performance - In 2025, a total of 235,300 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 17%, with domestic sales at 118,500 units (up 17.9%) and exports at 116,700 units (up 16.1%) [8] - December 2025 saw sales of 23,095 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales of 10,331 units (up 10.9%) and exports of 12,764 units (up 26.9%) [9] - The past three months have shown an increase in both domestic and export sales growth rates, reflecting an upward trend in industry prosperity and presenting short-term investment opportunities [8] Export Market Dynamics - The demand for large excavators is expected to continue, particularly for mining applications, as commodity prices rise, which may enhance the sustainability of excavator exports [8] - Major importing countries have shown a preference for larger excavators, with average tonnage exceeding 20 tons in countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, indicating a trend towards mining applications [8] Domestic Market Trends - There are structural improvements in domestic demand, which are beneficial for internal sales growth, despite overall utilization rates being under pressure [8] - The average working hours and operating rates of excavators in December 2025 were lower than in December 2024, indicating that the recovery is not uniform across the sector [8] - The trend of replacing manual labor with small excavators is expected to continue, contributing to stable growth in demand for the industry [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see new developments in the upcoming Olympic cycle, with the launch of new store formats and product lines aimed at enhancing brand engagement and meeting diverse consumer needs [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 0.95, 1.07, and 1.22 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 25.41 HKD based on a 24x valuation for 2025 [3][10]. - The company has shown resilience in a challenging consumer environment, with expectations for slight revenue growth driven by specific product categories and improved operational efficiency [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 27,598 million RMB - 2024: 28,676 million RMB (growth of 3.9%) - 2025: 29,101 million RMB (growth of 1.5%) - 2026: 30,640 million RMB (growth of 5.3%) - 2027: 32,747 million RMB (growth of 6.9%) [4]. - Operating profit and net profit forecasts indicate a decline in 2025, with operating profit expected to be 3,331 million RMB and net profit at 2,465 million RMB, before recovering in subsequent years [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable, with estimates of 48.8% in 2025 and gradually increasing to 49.2% by 2027 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 18.6 in 2025, decreasing to 14.6 by 2027, indicating a potential improvement in valuation over time [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a healthy upward trend, with indices rising and a rotation among sectors, particularly in cyclical stocks like chemicals and non-ferrous metals, alongside technology growth [3][5] - The strategy emphasizes a focus on mid-cap blue chips in cyclical and manufacturing sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, smart vehicles, and robotics [3][5] - The report highlights the potential for the rare earth sector to see a dual boost in profitability and valuation, drawing parallels to the 2010 scenario where export controls led to significant price increases [4][5] Market Strategy - The current market structure supports a strategy of light index weight and heavy structural focus, with a recommendation to invest in mid-cap blue chips and technology growth [3][5] - The report mentions specific ETFs related to mid-cap blue chips and sectors such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, indicating a diversified investment approach [3][5] Industry Strategy - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints and increased demand due to export controls, with projections for price increases similar to those seen in 2010 [4][5] - The report notes that recent announcements regarding export controls may stimulate inventory accumulation in overseas markets, further supporting price stability [4][5] - The solid-state battery industry is highlighted as a key area of focus, with advancements in technology signaling a critical phase for commercialization [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that after the implementation of the new bond fund fee regulations, there may be a rebound opportunity for short-term perpetual bonds, as previous negative sentiments have eased slightly [5][11][17] - The overall attitude towards credit bonds is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on three main areas: short-term perpetual bonds, short-end credit assets, and opportunities in private and perpetual bonds [11][12][15] - In December, the credit bond market experienced fluctuations, with yields showing a general "N" shape trend, influenced by monetary policy expectations and significant meetings [5][10][29] Group 2 - The issuance of corporate perpetual bonds in December saw a decrease, but net financing remained positive at 602 billion yuan, reflecting a 13% increase from the previous month [19][20] - The financing costs for AAA and AA+ rated perpetual bonds increased by 8 basis points and 15 basis points respectively, indicating a rising trend in borrowing costs [19][20] - The sectors with the highest issuance of perpetual bonds in December were urban investment, oil and petrochemicals, and construction decoration, with urban investment bonds showing significant activity across multiple provinces [21][22] Group 3 - The report highlights that the yield spread for perpetual bonds remains high, with certain bonds offering attractive value despite a general widening trend in spreads [12][15][31] - ABS (Asset-Backed Securities) have seen a widening premium compared to ordinary credit bonds, with limited opportunities for excess returns in the short term [15][16] - The report suggests prioritizing ABS types with lower risk profiles, such as urban investment ABS and those related to affordable housing, while also considering the liquidity of various ABS types [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The price of TV panels is expected to rise, with LCD and mid-size OLED likely to lead demand recovery. This is supported by the anticipated increase in demand due to upcoming sports events and government policies promoting trade-in programs for energy-efficient TVs [3][7] - The LCD market is expected to see a rebound in demand, driven by major manufacturers controlling production to improve supply-demand dynamics. The upcoming FIFA World Cup and continued government incentives are expected to boost demand [7] - Mid-size OLED is projected to penetrate the market more rapidly, enhancing demand for OLED technology in personal computers and other devices. The production efficiency and cost reduction in OLED manufacturing are expected to drive this trend [7] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests investing in panel manufacturers such as TCL Technology, BOE Technology Group, and others, as well as panel material manufacturers like Lite-On Optoelectronics and others [3][8] Market Dynamics - According to TrendForce, TV panel prices are expected to rise across all sizes in January 2026, with specific increases noted for various dimensions [11] - The report highlights the successful early activation of BOE's 8.6 generation AMOLED production line, indicating strong market confidence among leading manufacturers [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In December 2025, the growth style dominated, with the China Securities Value Index rising 1.05% and the China Securities Growth Index rising 4.08%. The mid - cap style was significantly superior, with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rising 2.28%, 6.17%, and 3.56% respectively. The cyclical sector maintained trading activity, while the trading heat of the technology and manufacturing sectors cooled slightly, and the consumer and financial real - estate sectors showed some trading heat [5][8][9]. - In December 2025, the Wande equity - biased fund index rose 3.06%. Funds focusing on commercial aerospace and military themes such as Yongying High - end Equipment Selection A and Qianhai Kaiyuan Greater Ocean recorded large increases. From the monthly win - rate perspective, high - win - rate active equity funds had obvious growth attributes, and Huaxia Zhaoxin Hongrui A maintained a 100% monthly win - rate in the past year and half - year [5][15][16]. - In January 2026, the mid - cap blue - chip market is expected to rise. Short - term focus can be on the mid - cap blue - chips in the cyclical sector, especially the chemical sector. Recommended funds include China Europe Chemical Industry A, Galaxy Value Growth A, etc. [5][20][22]. - China Europe Chemical Industry A has significant product positioning advantages, can provide active excess returns in the chemical sector, and its investment ideas are closely related to the comparison of sub - industry prosperity in the chemical industry [5][24]. - In 2026, the low - volatility fund portfolio has 18 funds, and the new - star fund portfolio has 16 products, including 3 technology - themed, 3 cyclical - themed, 3 manufacturing - themed, 5 pharmaceutical - themed, 1 consumer - themed, and 1 financial - themed products [5][30][32]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Style Change Tracking: Mid - cap Rise, Growth Strength - In December 2025, in terms of style indices, the growth style dominated, and the mid - cap style was significantly superior. The cyclical sector maintained trading activity, while the technology and manufacturing sectors' trading heat cooled slightly, and the consumer and financial real - estate sectors showed some trading heat [5][8][9]. 2. Multi - perspective Fund Tracking: Continued Heat in Commercial Aerospace - From the market hot - spot fund perspective, in December 2025, the Wande equity - biased fund index rose 3.06%. Funds focusing on commercial aerospace and military themes recorded large increases. Some funds focusing on the technology innovation field also performed well due to increased related holdings [15]. - From the monthly win - rate perspective, high - win - rate active equity funds had obvious growth attributes, and Huaxia Zhaoxin Hongrui A maintained a 100% monthly win - rate in the past year and half - year [16]. 3. January 2026 Allocation Suggestion: Mid - cap Blue - chips, Focus on Chemicals 3.1 Mid - cap Blue - chips, Cyclical Sector is King - The mid - cap blue - chip market is expected to rise. Short - term focus can be on the mid - cap blue - chips in the cyclical sector, especially the chemical sector. Recommended funds include China Europe Chemical Industry A, Galaxy Value Growth A, etc. [20][22]. 3.2 Focus on China Europe Chemical Industry A - It has significant product positioning advantages, can provide active excess returns in the chemical sector, and its investment ideas are closely related to the comparison of sub - industry prosperity in the chemical industry [24]. - The fund manager's investment framework is to build an industrial map, select potential high - prosperity sub - industries based on supply - demand patterns and industry prosperity, and then choose undervalued and high - performance - elastic targets [25]. - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from overseas interest - rate cuts and domestic economic stabilization in the next 1 - 2 years. The supply inflection point has gradually emerged, and overseas chemical enterprises are withdrawing, which will promote the domestic fine - chemical industry [27][28]. - In the chemical sector, two types of opportunities are favored: cyclical opportunities in sub - industries with improved supply - demand patterns, and growth opportunities in fine - chemical products with high import dependence and upstream materials driven by downstream technological breakthroughs. The cyclical inflection point may be in the second half of 2026, and it's time to gradually allocate bottom - oriented pro - cyclical varieties [29]. 4. Fund Portfolio Tracking 4.1 Bottom - position Portfolio - Low - volatility Funds - Low - volatility funds can be used as the bottom - position of asset allocation portfolios. In January 2026, 18 low - volatility funds were selected, with stable excess returns, low - risk, and low - volatility characteristics [30]. 4.2 Satellite Portfolio - New - star Funds - In January 2026, the new - star fund portfolio included 16 products, covering technology, cyclical, manufacturing, pharmaceutical, consumer, and financial themes [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Insights - The rare earth sector is expected to experience a dual boost in profitability and valuation, with a focus on asset integration opportunities within rare earth groups [3][6]. - Recent export control measures highlight the strategic value of rare earths, potentially mirroring the situation in 2010, where a significant reduction in export quotas led to a dramatic price increase for neodymium oxide [6]. - Supply and demand dynamics are expected to support rare earth prices, with neodymium oxide prices remaining above 600,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and recovering overseas demand [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The rare earth sector is anticipated to see profitability and valuation improvements, emphasizing the importance of asset integration within rare earth groups. Recommended stocks include Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy), among others [3]. Industry Overview - The recent export control policy by the Ministry of Commerce is a response to geopolitical tensions and is expected to stimulate overseas stocking demand, thereby supporting prices [6]. - Supply-side constraints are anticipated due to environmental regulations and production quota issues, which may lead to temporary shutdowns in some processing plants [6].