Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" with a target price of 124.52 HKD per share [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's core revenue for Q3 2025 was 24.7 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 7%, primarily due to a decline in online marketing revenue, which fell by 18% to 15.3 billion CNY. Non-online marketing revenue, however, increased by 21% to 9.3 billion CNY. The change in revenue structure led to a gross margin decline to 47.3%, down 11.5 percentage points year-over-year. The company reported a core operating loss of 15 billion CNY and an adjusted net profit of 3.8 billion CNY for Q3 2025. The company is currently transitioning from traditional search engine advertising to AI-driven business models, with expectations of short-term pressure on traditional advertising revenue but potential improvements in profitability following asset impairments [8][9]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 19.3 billion CNY, 19.5 billion CNY, and 22.0 billion CNY, respectively. The PE valuation method suggests a reasonable value of 311.7 billion CNY, equivalent to 342.5 billion HKD, based on a 16x PE for 2026 [9][11]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (in million CNY): 134,598 in 2023, projected to decline to 128,951 in 2025, before recovering to 144,353 in 2027 - Gross Margin: 52% in 2023, expected to decrease to 44% in 2025, then recover to 47% by 2027 - Net Profit Margin: 21% in 2023, projected to drop to 15% in 2025, and stabilize at 15% in 2027 - Earnings Per Share (CNY): 10.24 in 2023, declining to 7.12 in 2025, and recovering to 8.09 by 2027 [4][11].

景气分化但估值趋同，产业债如何挖掘？ 固定收益 | 专题报告 产业债投资策略 研究结论 产业债挖掘策略：票息策略占优，关注收益增强机会。 主流发债行业研判：分化加剧，下沉挖掘性价比不高。 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；模型测算误差；数据统计可能存在遗误。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 票息策略优于久期策略：信用债市场周观 | 2025-11-17 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 信用债 ETF 将持续吸引资金流入：信用债 | 2025-11-11 | | 市场周观察 | | | 把握年末信用利差压缩行情：2025年11月 | 2025-11-06 | | 小品种策略 | | | 以中短信用为基本盘， ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 美国 9 月就业数据：经济与政策不确定性 未能出清 研究结论 风险提示 就业数据持续产生预期差的风险。 美国经济陷入衰退的风险。 通胀超预期上行的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 美东时间 11 月 20 日，美国政府重开后劳工部延迟公布 9 月美国非 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 关注被错杀的有色细分板块 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 47 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | --- | --- | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 当降息预期回摆，关注中期财政发力受益 | 2025-11-17 | | --- | --- | | 品种：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年 | | | 第 46 周） | | | 西芒杜项目顺利投产，铁矿供给格局变革 | 2025-11-11 | | 有 ...

风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 23 日 看好（维持） 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 印度取消 BIS 认证及反倾销税，利好 PVC 等产品出口增长 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注景气度有望复苏的 PVC 相关企业 中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业 (600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)， MDI 龙头 万华化学(600309，买入)。景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工 中，相关标的包括川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等；草酸 行业中，建议关注华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材 (301216，买入)。 | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment, with low market sentiment. However, the downward space for the index is considered limited, and the year-end adjustment presents a good opportunity for positioning for the coming year, particularly focusing on mid-cap blue chips [4][15]. Market Outlook - The short-term market adjustment does not alter the ongoing oscillating trend. The adjustment is influenced by both internal and external factors. Externally, there is a downward revision of the expectation for a decline in overseas risk-free interest rates in December. Internally, the risk appetite of high-risk investors is declining faster than that of low-risk investors. It is anticipated that the external factors may ease, and the risk appetite will gradually converge towards the middle. Overall, the future outlook remains stable with a mix of gains and losses, maintaining a sideways oscillation with a slight upward trend [5][16]. Industry Comparison - The layout for mid-cap blue chips is timely. Since March 2023, the market has seen a consensus expectation for a rally in both technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of risk styles at both ends is nearing its end, and future investment opportunities lie in stocks with medium risk characteristics. The long-dormant mid-cap blue chip market is expected to rise again, making the current market adjustment a favorable time for positioning [6][17]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in medium-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines: 1. The manufacturing sector is shifting from "dream narratives" to "reality verification," emphasizing the need for investments based on orders and revenue verification, particularly in communications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery [7][18]. 2. The consumer sector, which has been quiet for years, is approaching a turning point. Many consumer stocks are undervalued, and with supply contraction, prices are expected to rise. Key areas of focus include the restaurant supply chain, second and third-tier liquor, snacks and beverages, hotels, human resources, and beauty care [7][18]. 3. The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention should be given to new materials and strategic minor metals (such as antimony and rare earths), as well as industrial metals (copper and aluminum) that are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, along with traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber [7][18]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: - The Google & Alibaba supply chain, where there is significant divergence in market expectations regarding AI development. The next phase may present opportunities across the entire supply chain from applications to large models and upstream computing power [8][19]. - Semiconductor expansion and domestic substitution, with expectations for domestic wafer fabs to expand production next year and the capital progress of domestic storage chip leaders. The development of domestic semiconductor materials is expected to accelerate amid international relations challenges [8][19]. - Solid-state batteries, where the market is closely monitoring industrial progress. The acceleration point for solid-state battery industrialization has emerged, with the order-driven phase beginning in the equipment/materials segment [8][19]. - Aerospace satellites, which are entering a development opportunity period with expected catalysts. The IPO progress of industry leaders is anticipated to accelerate, with various fields such as constellation networking and satellite bidding expected to see rapid implementation [8][20]. - Upstream price increases, driven by supply contraction and structural demand growth, are expected to provide price elasticity for related products, particularly in the upstream of the new energy industry, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [8][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The report suggests that companies involved in the supply chain for Tesla, Figure, and domestic robot manufacturers are expected to benefit, with competitive domestic brands and those leading in intelligent driving technology likely to expand their market share [3][14] - Continued focus on humanoid robot chains, T chains, liquid cooling supply chains, Huawei supply chains, and intelligent driving supply chain companies is recommended [3][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Domestic and international robot companies are iterating and advancing mass production, with a significant focus on the humanoid robot industry chain [2][11] - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to enter a phase of scale production from 0 to 1 by 2026, with several companies accelerating their IPO processes [8][11] Sales Tracking - From November 1 to 16, 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.021 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [17] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 24.795 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11% [17] Market Performance - The automotive sector overall experienced a decline, with the automotive industry index down by 5.1%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [31] - The report highlights significant declines across various sub-sectors, including passenger vehicles and automotive parts [31][32] Key Company Announcements - Companies like Geely and XPeng reported significant revenue growth, with XPeng's third-quarter revenue increasing by 101.8% year-on-year [46][45] - Geely's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 239.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry in China [8] Core Insights - The release of Google's Gemini 3 Pro model marks a significant advancement in AI capabilities, outperforming previous models like GPT-5.1 and Sonnet4.5 across nearly all evaluation metrics [2][3] - The introduction of new AI applications, such as Alibaba's "Qianwen" app and Ant Group's "Lingguang," indicates a shift towards more practical and task-oriented personal AI assistants [4] - The AI application landscape is evolving from simple chatbot interactions to more integrated solutions that can handle end-to-end tasks, enhancing user engagement and utility [5] Summary by Sections Model Performance and Iteration - The Gemini 3 Pro model's breakthrough performance is expected to boost confidence in AI model capabilities, with significant improvements in solving complex problems and multi-modal understanding [3] - The advancements in AI models suggest that the potential for further enhancements is still present, indicating a new growth phase for AI applications [5] Consumer Applications - The shift towards practical AI applications is exemplified by Alibaba's "Qianwen" app, which aims to facilitate tasks like online shopping and restaurant reservations through conversational interfaces [4] - Ant Group's "Lingguang" has gained rapid popularity, reaching over one million downloads within four days of its launch, showcasing the demand for effective productivity tools [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies in the AI application sector and AI computing power sector are expected to benefit from the ongoing improvements in model performance and increasing demand for reasoning capabilities [6] - Recommended companies in the AI application space include Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, and Tax Friend, while notable AI computing firms include Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a defensive strategy in the current market environment, suggesting that investors should consider gradual positioning in sectors benefiting from marginal improvements in economic conditions in 2025 [2][3] - A significant rebalancing has occurred in global stock markets, with funds shifting from previously high-performing technology sectors to relatively undervalued sectors such as resources, consumption, and manufacturing [2][3] - The report highlights the positive outlook for mid-cap blue-chip companies in the machinery sector, driven by both policy support and fundamental improvements [5] Market Strategy - The current market is characterized by a "stable internal and external" dynamic, with technology assets experiencing a pullback due to concerns over an "AI bubble" [2][3] - Investors are advised to focus on mid-cap blue-chip companies in sectors like non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, and machinery, which have shown improved capital returns in Q3 [2][3] - Suggested ETFs for investment include the Consumer ETF (159928) and Infrastructure 50 ETF (516970/159635) [2][3] Industry Strategy - The machinery industry is expected to benefit from a dual drive of policy and fundamental support, with a focus on nurturing quality enterprises and specialized industrial clusters [5] - The forklift industry saw a 14.2% year-on-year increase in sales from January to October 2025, with exports rising by 15.5%, indicating a recovery in both domestic and international demand [5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance, providing opportunities for companies with advantages in hydraulic components and five-axis machine tools to capture both traditional equipment upgrades and emerging market opportunities [5] Theme Strategy - The report discusses the launch of Nano2, which introduces a reasoning-driven visual generation capability, marking a shift from diffusion-based generation to a more intelligent image generation paradigm [6] - Companies with a comprehensive AI pathway, integrating hardware, research, models, and application scenarios, are expected to benefit significantly from advancements in AI applications [6] - Relevant ETFs for this theme include the Media ETF (512980/159805) and the China Concept Internet ETF (513220/159605) [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the utility sector, indicating a favorable investment environment for utility assets [7]. Core Insights - The high growth in electricity consumption is expected to continue, with a significant increase in electricity generation from thermal power, which has turned from negative to positive growth [10][19]. - The report highlights the need for further market reforms to support the integration of renewable energy into the power system, emphasizing the importance of pricing mechanisms for various electricity attributes [7]. - The report suggests that utility assets at low valuations are worth considering for investment, given their defensive characteristics in the current market environment [7]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption and Generation - In October 2025, total electricity consumption increased by 10.4% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 5.9% [10]. - The growth in electricity consumption was driven by temperature factors and a low base from the previous year, with notable increases across various sectors [10]. - In October 2025, the generation from thermal power increased by 7.3% year-on-year, marking a recovery from previous declines, while hydropower generation saw a substantial increase of 28.2% [19]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the coal prices at ports remained stable, while prices at production sites saw slight increases, indicating a stable supply environment [31]. - The average electricity market clearing price in Guangdong decreased by 31.8% year-on-year, reflecting market pressures [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on utility stocks, particularly in thermal and hydropower sectors, due to their strong dividend potential and improving business models [7]. - Specific stocks mentioned for thermal power include Guodian Power (600795), Huadian International (600027), and Huaneng International (600011) [7]. - For hydropower, recommended stocks include Yangtze Power (600900) and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674) [7]. Performance Overview - The utility sector underperformed the broader market indices, with the Shenwan Utility Index declining by 4.3% during the week, slightly lagging behind the CSI 300 Index [56]. - Among sub-sectors, hydropower showed the least decline, while solar power experienced the most significant drop [58].