Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly rising and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force during market fluctuations, with a shift in investor preference from extreme technology and dividend styles to mid-range options [4] - It is recommended to explore opportunities in the long-dormant consumer sector and to wait for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Focus: Swine Industry - The report highlights a pessimistic outlook for the swine industry, suggesting that the current market conditions present significant investment value [5] - Recent policies and market dynamics are expected to drive capacity reduction in the swine industry, leading to long-term performance improvements [5] - The report notes that market expectations for swine prices in 2026 are extremely low, which may underestimate the inventory and capacity reduction situation [5] - Historical trends indicate that when prices for fat pigs and piglets are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reductions, supported by ongoing policy restrictions on leading producers [5] Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [6] - The report identifies the brain model as a significant challenge for mass production, with expectations for accelerated progress in the first half of 2026 [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 91.35 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average of 45 times for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to list in Hong Kong and increase investment in its Mexican factory, expecting overseas business and seating operations to be key profit growth drivers [2][9]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.037 billion CNY, 1.366 billion CNY, and 1.746 billion CNY respectively, with significant revenue growth anticipated [3][5]. - The company aims to enhance its global business presence and increase seating capacity, with a focus on R&D investment [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 10.572 billion CNY in 2023 to 26.006 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.4% [5][11]. - Operating profit is projected to increase from 928 million CNY in 2023 to 1.983 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 27.8% in 2027 [5][11]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 6.7% by 2027, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 18.3% [5][11].

Asset Performance - The report indicates a strong performance in equities and commodities, with A-shares and precious metals leading the gains[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a weekly increase of 1.88% and a year-to-date increase of 21.49%[12] - The CSI 500 Index experienced a weekly rise of 4.03% and a year-to-date increase of 34.49%[12] Market Expectations - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, significantly above the expected 3.3%[19] - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.00 mark, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets[23] - The report anticipates continued strength in risk assets due to expectations of U.S. economic downturn and policy easing[22] Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends a bullish stance on A-shares, commodities, and gold, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and telecommunications[28] - It suggests monitoring A-share equity-related index enhancement strategies and commodity-related CTA strategies[54] Risk Considerations - The report highlights potential extreme risk events, such as U.S.-China relations and unexpected global geopolitical events, which could disrupt historical patterns[4] - It also notes the risk of quantitative indicators becoming ineffective, as historical data may not reliably predict future outcomes[4]

Group 1: Long-term Strategy - China's political economy relies on "long-termism," emphasizing historical patience and strategic stability amid global changes[5] - The "Five-Year Plan" exemplifies China's long-term strategy, focusing on continuity and gradual execution rather than disruption[5] - China's understanding of time spans centuries, supporting the value of its assets through long-term goals[5] Group 2: Policy Continuity - The continuity of goals ensures that strategic intentions are realized, with each Five-Year Plan building on the previous one[9] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" are interconnected, leading towards the centenary goals of building a prosperous socialist modern state[9] - China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 illustrates its steadfast approach to long-term objectives, contrasting with the policy fluctuations seen in Western countries[10] Group 3: Incremental Capability Development - China's governance evolves through iterative upgrades, with policies adapting to current challenges while maintaining overarching themes[12] - The "Made in China 2025" strategy employs a phased approach, aiming for significant advancements by 2025, 2035, and 2049[13] - Infrastructure investments in key regions, such as the "Belt and Road Initiative," reflect a long-term vision for regional connectivity and economic growth[21] Group 4: Social Cohesion and Action - The realization of long-term economic goals depends on collective action across society, facilitated by clear roadmaps and accountability mechanisms[27] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes a comprehensive responsibility system to ensure effective implementation and monitoring of goals[27] - Cultural values, such as the promotion of socialist core values, underpin the social cohesion necessary for achieving long-term objectives[27] Group 5: Investment Themes - Long-termism translates into investment themes, including cultural confidence, strategic industries, and energy security[30] - The focus on local cultural heritage and strategic sectors is expected to continue evolving, reflecting China's unique economic landscape[30] - The stability of China's macro policies is increasingly recognized as a comparative advantage by global investors[30]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly elevated and the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization exceeded 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Sector Strategy - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks are positioned as a stabilizing force in the market, with a shift in risk appetite leading funds from extreme technology and dividend styles to the mid-range, providing opportunities for mid-cap blue chips [4] - The performance of cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals) and manufacturing (communications, military) has been validated by the market, suggesting a focus on the long-dormant consumer sector and waiting for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is viewed as having significant value due to extremely pessimistic expectations, with recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [5] - The market's pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026 is seen as underestimating inventory and capacity reduction, with historical trends indicating a likely market-driven capacity reduction [5] - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026, driven by the evolution of brain models [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from the future of mass production in humanoid robots [6]

Research Conclusion - The report remains optimistic about the trading opportunities of convertible bonds, expecting a sideways shock and a slight strengthening in the equity market, with the market shifting from a two - end trend of technology + dividends to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - This week, the ChiNext and STAR Market drove the small and medium - cap stocks stronger, and convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The high - priced equity - like bonds continued to rise. The 100 - yuan premium rate oscillated between 30% - 34% as previously predicted and was difficult to break through the previous high. Although the current cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, there are still trading opportunities under the optimistic expectation of the equity market [6][9]. - The strengthening factors of the equity market this week include the continuous popularity of the commercial space and optical module sectors, the strengthening of metal prices, and the significant increase in the share of CSI A500 ETF. After the uncertain events are settled, the market starts to rise with oscillations and the sentiment turns positive. The subsequent equity market will be in a sideways shock and slightly strengthen, and the market trend will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views - Driven by the equity market, convertible bonds broke through the previous high, and the valuation rose and then fell. The 100 - yuan premium rate oscillated between 30% - 34% and was difficult to break through the previous high. Despite the low cost - performance and small - scale redemption behavior, the trading opportunities of convertible bonds are still promising under the optimistic equity market [9]. - The equity market tried to break through upward again this week. With the settlement of uncertain events, the market started to rise with oscillations. The subsequent equity market will be in a sideways shock and slightly strengthen, and the market trend will shift to mid - cap blue - chips in industries such as cycles, consumption, and manufacturing [9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review 2.1 Market Overall Performance - This week, the equity market was strong, with all broad - based indexes rising. The CSI 500 rose 4.03%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.90%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%. In terms of industries, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and power equipment led the rise, while beauty care, social services, and banks led the decline. The average daily trading volume increased by 210.457 billion yuan to 1.96 trillion yuan [12]. 2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, Good Performance of High - priced and Small - cap Convertible Bonds - This week, convertible bonds rose significantly, the 100 - yuan premium rate rose and then fell, and the average daily trading volume increased significantly to 78.563 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%, the parity center rose 0.4% to 101.7 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate rose 1.3% to 32.4%. High - priced and small - cap convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated and double - low convertible bonds performed weakly [6][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and aerospace industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [7]. Core Insights - The Long March 12甲 rocket, despite not achieving its primary recovery goal, has provided valuable experience and is a crucial step in China's development of reusable rocket technology [10][11]. - The Wenchang International Aerospace Forum has opened, signaling rapid advancement in the commercialization and industrialization of the aerospace sector in China [12]. - The report emphasizes continued optimism for commercial aerospace, unmanned systems, new combat capabilities, and military trade as key growth areas [13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Long March 12甲 Rocket - The Long March 12甲 rocket's recent launch did not meet the recovery target for the first stage, but it successfully gathered critical data for future missions [10][11]. - The failure is seen as part of the iterative process necessary for achieving reusable technology, similar to the development path of SpaceX's Falcon 9 [11]. 1.2 Wenchang International Aerospace Forum - The forum aims to enhance the aerospace industry in Hainan, focusing on building a comprehensive ecosystem that includes rocket, satellite, and data services [12]. - The government is shifting its focus from merely launching rockets to developing downstream services and applications, indicating a move towards a more integrated aerospace industry [12]. 1.3 Future Outlook - As the 14th Five-Year Plan approaches, the report highlights the importance of new technologies in defense, including unmanned systems and deep-sea technology [13]. - The report suggests that military and civilian sectors will become significant growth drivers, with a focus on expanding military trade and high-end equipment exports [13]. Investment Targets - The report lists several investment targets in the commercial aerospace sector, including: - Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy) - National Science and Technology Military Industry (688543, Not Rated) - Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated) [13][14].

兆易创新 603986.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 2.47、3.96、5.00 元（原 25-26 年预测为 2.38、3.04 元），主要调整了营业收入与费用率。根据可比公司 26 年平均 65 倍 PE 估值，给予 257.40 元目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 需求复苏不及预期、价格上涨不及预期、新产品进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,761 | 7,356 | 9,452 | 12,461 | 15,871 | | 同比增长 (%) | -29.1% | 27.7% | 28.5% | 31.8% | 27.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 120 | 1,117 | 1,678 | 2,751 | 3,585 | | 同比增长 (%) | -94.6% | 832.8% | 50.2% | 63.9% | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The continuation of national subsidies is expected to stimulate consumption potential on both supply and demand sides, with stable white goods production planned for Q1 2026 [2][3] - The "Two New" policy is optimized and extended, which is anticipated to activate greater consumption potential in the home appliance sector [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Sales Outlook - The effect of national subsidies is expected to improve domestic sales conditions in Q1 2026 after the arrival of subsidy funds, despite a marginal slowdown in the subsidy effect [3][6] - January 2026 white goods production data shows a total of 34.53 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year, with variations in production across different product categories [6] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading companies with higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, which are seen as stable choices for investment [3] - Key stocks to consider include Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, not rated), and Hisense Visual (600060, increase holding) [3] - The long-term focus on overseas expansion is highlighted, with expectations for a valuation switch in 2026, particularly for Stone Technology (688169, not rated) [3] - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for a second growth curve, such as Anfu Technology (603031, not rated), are also recommended [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has officially released guidelines for commercial rocket companies to apply for the fifth set of listing standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which supports high-quality commercial rocket enterprises that have not yet formed a certain revenue scale to go public [2][7] - The commercial rocket industry is expected to experience rapid growth due to continuous policy support, accelerated technological iteration, and the release of rocket production capacity, leading to a significant increase in the number of rockets and launch frequency in China [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The guidelines emphasize that companies must have key core technologies and significant technological advantages or breakthroughs, focusing on the self-research capabilities of core components and key indicators such as payload capacity and multi-satellite launch capabilities [7] - The guidelines also require that commercial rocket companies achieve a milestone of successfully launching a medium to large reusable rocket payload into orbit [7] Market Dynamics - The commercial rocket sector is currently a bottleneck in the commercial aerospace industry, and with the release of production capacity, improvement in launch capabilities, and breakthroughs in reusable technology, the progress of satellite networking is expected to experience a leap forward [7] - The report identifies that the future of China's rocket sector will see a threefold resonance of capacity release, enhanced launch capabilities, and breakthroughs in reusable technology, which will accelerate the resolution of launch bottlenecks [7] Investment Targets - Recommended investment targets in the satellite sector include Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy), Zhenlei Technology (688270, Not Rated), and others [7] - Recommended investment targets in the rocket sector include Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated), Zhonghang Heavy Industry (600765, Buy), and others [7]