Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating expected performance relative to market benchmarks [4]. Core Insights - The first quarter results for home appliances exceeded expectations, with domestic sales likely to benefit from policy support. The demand for home appliances in the second quarter is anticipated to be strong due to high temperatures and low inventory levels [2][14]. - The entry of DJI into the robotic vacuum cleaner market is expected to stimulate innovation within the industry, although its short-term impact is deemed limited. The long-term potential for growth remains strong due to low penetration rates and the need for improved user experiences [6][10][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods companies that benefit from domestic policy continuation and are actively expanding overseas, such as Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, Buy), and Hisense Home Appliances (000921, not rated) [2][14]. - Companies with a strong presence in mature overseas markets and those benefiting from global supply chain advantages are also recommended, including Hisense Visual (600060, Overweight) and Ousheng Electric (301187, Buy) [2][14]. - Small appliance companies expected to benefit from national subsidies and long-term demand growth are highlighted, including Stone Technology (688169, Buy) and Bear Electric (002959, Overweight) [2][14]. - Kitchen appliance companies that are adjusting strategies in response to real estate market fluctuations are also recommended, such as Robam Appliances (002508, Buy) and Vatti Corporation (002035, not rated) [2][14]. Industry Dynamics - The entry of DJI into the robotic vacuum cleaner market is seen as a validation of the industry's high growth potential, with expectations of continued demand driven by government subsidies and low domestic penetration rates [12]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with leading players like Ecovacs maintaining over 25% market share, while Stone Technology is increasing its sales share to over 25% through enhanced marketing efforts [12][10]. - The report notes that while increased marketing expenditures may temporarily affect profitability, they are expected to strengthen brand positioning and market presence in the long run [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.86 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company has won a bid for a semi-physical simulation testing system from LiaoShen Industrial Group, with a total bid amount of 36.5 million CNY [1]. - The industry is experiencing a recovery, which is expected to positively impact the company's fundamentals [1]. - The company is advancing in both technological innovation and market expansion, particularly in infrared guidance technology and laser defense systems [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 275 million CNY and 359 million CNY, respectively, with an EPS forecast of 0.13 CNY for 2025 and 0.46 CNY for 2026 [2]. - The net profit for 2026 is projected to be 46 million CNY, reflecting a significant growth rate of 251.5% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 47.8% in 2025, increasing to 48.6% in 2026 [4]. Financial Information - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 162 million CNY in 2023 to 464 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 29.2% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive by 2025, reaching 13 million CNY, and further increasing to 68 million CNY by 2027 [4]. - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to improve significantly, from a loss of 45 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 77 million CNY in 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 75.52 HKD based on a 38x PE valuation for 2026 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and adjusted net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion CNY, a 47% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion CNY, up 64% year-on-year [9]. - The smartphone segment showed significant growth, with a 9% increase in revenue to 50.6 billion CNY and a global market share of 14.1%, ranking among the top three globally [9]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment also saw strong performance, with revenue of 32.3 billion CNY, a 59% increase, and a gross margin of 25.2% [9]. - The internet services segment reported revenue of 9.1 billion CNY, a 13% increase, with a gross margin of 76.9% [9]. - The electric vehicle segment generated 18.6 billion CNY in revenue, with a gross margin of 23.2%, and the company continues to expand its sales network [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 477.67 billion CNY, 575.30 billion CNY, and 690.22 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 20%, and 20% [5][10]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 35.12 billion CNY, 47.32 billion CNY, and 59.00 billion CNY, with growth rates of 48%, 35%, and 25% [5][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 22.5% in 2025 to 23.1% in 2027, while net profit margin is projected to increase from 7.4% to 8.5% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 1.35 CNY, 1.82 CNY, and 2.27 CNY, respectively [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, indicating a favorable investment environment with expectations of increased capital expenditure and strong cash flow management among leading companies [8][19]. Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry is entering a critical phase of globalization, with capital expenditures expected to rise. "Cash cow" companies are likely to leverage their strong cash flow to build competitive barriers [9][19]. - The report highlights the potential for home appliance companies to enhance their market share in emerging markets through aggressive investments and local manufacturing to avoid tariff barriers [9][19]. - The overall cash flow quality of home appliance companies is strong, with many exhibiting a net cash ratio greater than 1, indicating robust operational efficiency and financial stability [11][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The first quarter results for home appliance companies exceeded expectations, with domestic sales likely to benefit from policy support. The demand for home appliances is anticipated to remain strong in the second quarter, particularly in the air conditioning sector due to high temperatures and low inventory levels [19]. - Recommended companies include: - Midea Group (000333, not rated) - Haier Smart Home (600690, Buy) - Hisense Home Appliances (000921, not rated) - Hisense Visual Technology (600060, Overweight) - Ousheng Electric (301187, Buy) - Stone Technology (688169, Buy) - Bear Electric (002959, Overweight) - Robam Appliances (002508, Buy) - Vatti Corporation (002035, not rated) [19]. Industry Overview - The report notes a steady growth in white goods exports, indicating potential in emerging markets, while disruptions in exports to the U.S. are expected to ease [19]. - The home appliance sector is characterized by a diverse performance across different segments, with high-end and cost-effective products both showing promising results [19]. Financial Metrics - The report emphasizes the strong cash flow management of leading home appliance companies, with many maintaining a high net cash ratio, which is a positive indicator for future global expansion [11][12][16]. - Companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric Appliances are highlighted for their substantial cash reserves, with cash assets constituting over 20% of total assets [16][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of 75.52 HKD, based on a 38x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and adjusted net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion CNY, a 47% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion CNY, up 64% year-on-year [9]. - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments increased, with a market share of 14.1% globally, ranking among the top three, and a significant return to the top position in China's market with a share of 18.8% [9]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment also saw strong growth, with revenue of 32.3 billion CNY, a 59% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin of 25.2% [9]. - The internet services segment reported revenue of 9.1 billion CNY, a 13% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 76.9% [9]. - The electric vehicle segment generated 18.6 billion CNY in revenue, with a gross margin of 23.2%, and the company continues to expand its sales network [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 477.67 billion CNY, 575.30 billion CNY, and 690.22 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 20%, and 20% [5]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 35.12 billion CNY, 47.32 billion CNY, and 59.00 billion CNY, with growth rates of 48%, 35%, and 25% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are 1.35 CNY, 1.82 CNY, and 2.27 CNY, respectively [5][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 22.5% in 2025 to 23.1% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 7.4% to 8.5% over the same period [5].

Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Big Beautiful Tax Cut" bill was passed by the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 215 votes in favor and 214 against, with all Democrats and two Republicans opposing it[14] - The bill is projected to increase the deficit by $3-4 trillion over the next 10 years, with $1 trillion in spending cuts and $4-5 trillion in tax reductions[19] - Key focuses of the bill include tax reforms, adjustments in government spending, and raising the debt ceiling[15] Group 2: Economic Implications - The bill includes significant tax cuts, such as extending the majority of personal and estate tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and new tax benefits for small businesses[16] - The spending side of the bill proposes cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs while increasing military spending by $150 billion[18] - Economic resilience is indicated by the May PMI data, which showed manufacturing and services sectors expanding beyond expectations, suggesting a positive short-term economic outlook[31] Group 3: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices falling by 2.47% and 2.61% respectively during the week of May 17-24[9] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen significantly, reflecting ongoing concerns about debt demand and market pressures[9] - The dollar index fell by 1.84%, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold, which rose by 5.35% during the same period[9] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Economic uncertainties persist, particularly regarding employment and consumer spending, which could lead to a hard landing for the U.S. economy[34] - Policy uncertainties remain high, especially concerning the potential changes in tariff negotiations and their impact on fiscal policy[34]

宏观经济 | 专题报告 "大美丽法案"初探 ——海外札记 20250526 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。 王仲尧 021-63325888*3267 wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 吴泽青 wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 孙金霞 021-63325888*7590 sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 曹靖楠 021-63325888*3046 | 更多关税后的美国经济表现浮现：——海 | 2025-05-21 | | --- | --- | | 外札记 20250519 | | | 通胀冲击等待中发酵：——2025 年 4 月美 | 2025-05-16 | | 国 CPI 数据点评 | | | 中美谈判延长风险缓释期：——海外札记 | 2025-05-13 | | 20250512 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或 ...

金融工程 | 专题报告 Neural ODE：时序动力系统重构下深度学 习因子挖掘模型 ——因子选股系列之一一六 研究结论 金融数据常因停牌、财报发布和突发事件等因素存在缺失、噪声及异常等问题，这 些问题通常会影响模型稳定性以及样本外的泛化能力。本文提出一种 RNN+Neural ODE+MLP融合模型，将时序数据建模为微分动力系统，然后进行数据重构和特征提取， 从而提升模型样本外的选股鲁棒性。整个模型由以下部分构成： 模型因子对比 通过将 Baseline 模型和新模型因子多头绩效的对比，我们得到以下结论： 因子选股能力和行业轮动能力的表现 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 27 日 | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080003 | ADWM：基于门控机制的自适应动态因子 加权模型：——因子选股系列之一一二 2025-04-10 ABCM：基于神经网络的alp ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [3] Core Views - Alibaba's core business in e-commerce remains stable and shows positive growth, while its cloud business is entering a high-growth cycle driven by AI demand [7][9] - The company has exceeded expectations in its latest quarterly results, with revenue and adjusted net profit showing significant growth [7][9] Financial Performance Summary - For FY4Q25, Alibaba achieved revenue of 2364.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of 2379.1 billion yuan [7] - Adjusted net profit reached 298.5 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus estimate of 298.5 billion yuan [7] - The Taobao Group reported revenue of 1013.7 billion yuan, growing 8.8% year-on-year, and adjusted EBITA of 417.5 billion yuan, up 8.4% [7] - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue increased by 17.7% year-on-year to 301.3 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITA growing 69.0% [7] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 22.3% year-on-year to 335.8 billion yuan, while the logistics segment saw a revenue decline of 12.2% [7] Future Outlook - The report forecasts Alibaba's revenue for FY2026-2028 to be 10642 billion yuan, 11748 billion yuan, and 12725 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1696 billion yuan, 1849 billion yuan, and 1955 billion yuan [9][11] - The company is expected to maintain a focus on AI and cloud integration alongside its core e-commerce business, with other segments showing signs of reduced losses [9][11] Valuation - The estimated market value of Alibaba is 30954 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 176.86 HKD per share [9][24]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 27 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 理解《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方 案》带来的改变 2025-05-15 政治局会议部署加快落地，一揽子金融政 策稳定预期 2025-05-07 浮动管理费产品落地有何启示？ 研究结论 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月 23 日证监会批复首批 26 只新型浮动费率基金，27 日起发售，主要特点有： （1）对标主流宽基指数，多数为偏股混合，且暂时没有行业基金/主题基金；（2） 部分基金涉及港股或港股通，可能源于对香港资本市场关注程度提高；（2）浮动费 ...