资产配置 | 专题报告 资产配置不仅仅是风险分散 ——主动型资产配置新思路 研究结论 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | | | 全天候模型仓位平稳，行业策略推荐科技/ | 2025-11-03 | | --- | --- | | 有色/新能源等板块：——资产配置模型月 | | | 报 202511 | | | 关注权益和商品机会：——资产配置月报 | 2025-11-01 | | 202511 | | | 大类资产仓位平稳，行业策略推荐有色/科 | 2025-10-11 | | 技等板块：——资产配置模型月报 202510 | | | 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征： | 2025-09-29 | | ——"2+1"思维在大类资产中的应用初 | | | 探 | | | 股债跷跷板的成因、影响和策略应对 | 2025-09-17 | | 基于风险因子择时的动态全天候思路 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 关注永续品种定价偏离带来的机会：信用 | 2025-11-24 | | --- | --- | | 债市场周观察 | | | 景 气 分 化 但 估 值 趋 同 ， 产 业 债 如 何 挖 | 2025-11-24 | | 掘？：产业债投资策略 | | | 指数接近前高， ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a "rebalancing," with funds flowing from previously high-performing technology sectors to relatively undervalued sectors such as resources, consumption, and manufacturing [8] - The short-term rebound in the technology growth sector is limited due to overhead pressure and a lack of investor interest, while some industries like non-bank financials and steel show improved capital returns [8] - The food and beverage industry is expected to have short-term opportunities and mid-term performance improvements driven by supply-side factors, focusing on companies that can expand market share and optimize customer resources [8] Market Strategy - The market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, suggesting investors should consider reallocating to sectors that will benefit from marginal improvements in economic conditions next year [8] - Key ETFs mentioned for potential investment include the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 1000 ETF [8] Sector Strategy - The food and beverage sector is highlighted for its potential, with specific recommendations for companies like Yili (伊利股份) and Salted Fish (盐津铺子) due to their market positioning and growth strategies [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying leading companies that can leverage competitive advantages during the current market conditions [8] Theme Strategy - The robotics industry is noted for its transition from demonstration to practical application, with significant advancements in technology and increased order volumes for companies like Linker Hand and the four-legged robot "Steel Coin" [8] - Relevant ETFs for the robotics sector include various options that focus on this emerging technology [8]

订单饱满扩充库存空间，瓶颈缓解提升生 产效率 ——华峰铝业动态跟踪 华峰铝业 601702.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们维持 2025-27 年 EPS 预测分别为 1.39、1.78、2.19 元。根据可比公司 2025 年 市盈率估值情况，给予公司 2025 年 17 倍市盈率，对应目标价 23.63 元，维持买入评 级。 风险提示 重庆工厂产能释放不及预期风险、铝板带箔加工费不及预期风险、行业产能释放过快的 风险、宏观经济增速放缓、新应用领域拓展不及预期的风险。 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 营业收入(百万元) 9,291 10,878 12,896 14,621 16,473 同比增长 (%) 8.7% 17.1% 18.5% 13.4% 12.7% 营业利润(百万元) 1,013 1,383 1,517 1,941 2,387 同比增长 (%) 40.0% 36.5% 9.7% 28.0% 22.9% 归属母公司净利润(百万元) 899 1,218 1,388 1,776 2,183 同比增长 (%) 35.1% 35.4% 14 ...

风险提示 机器人业务进展低于预期、乘用车行业销量低于预期、北美市场新能源车渗透率低于预 期、乘用车遮阳板、头枕、顶棚产品配套量低于预期、海外关税政策不确定性。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,861 | 6,377 | 6,948 | 7,735 | 8,604 | | 同比增长 (%) | 13.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 11.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 802 | 943 | 1,020 | 1,217 | 1,404 | | 同比增长 (%) | 35.7% | 17.6% | 8.2% | 19.3% | 15.4% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 654 | 802 | 871 | 1,039 | 1,198 | | 同比增长 (%) | 14.8% | 22.7% | 8.6% | 19.2% | 15.3% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 49.50 CNY, based on an average P/E ratio of 18 times for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's main business is gradually recovering after hitting a low point, leading to a slight downward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 542 million CNY, 631 million CNY, and 716 million CNY respectively [3][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.509 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.72%, with a net profit of 392 million CNY, up 24.92% year-on-year [9]. - The company is actively expanding into new business areas, including a partnership with Jima Gene for bioblock products and the acquisition of IPITECH INC. to enter the electronic-grade PI materials market [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 5,278 million CNY (2023), 5,687 million CNY (2024), 6,297 million CNY (2025), 6,862 million CNY (2026), and 7,414 million CNY (2027), with respective growth rates of 9.0%, 7.7%, 10.7%, 9.0%, and 8.1% [4][11]. - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve from 19.8% in 2023 to 24.0% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 6.9% to 9.7% over the same period [4][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.58 CNY in 2023 to 3.12 CNY in 2027 [4][11].

Market Strategy - The recent market rebound aligns with previous predictions of a "layout window emerging," but the market has not shown a simultaneous increase in volume and price, indicating that the rebound does not change the overall oscillating pattern [6] - The current tension in Sino-Japanese relations is a major factor restraining risk appetite, suggesting a cautious approach to technology growth sectors, which are more sensitive to risk preferences [6] - The real estate market has been in a downward trend since the policy release last September, with recent price increases in the sector driven by changes in policy expectations and capital inflows, but further confirmation of policy effectiveness is needed to sustain this momentum [6] Sector Strategy - In the technology sector, a cautious approach is recommended due to the difficulty in further upward adjustments in expectations amid declining risk appetite [6] - The cyclical consumer manufacturing sector, characterized by medium risk, is expected to gain market consensus as conditions evolve [6] - The real estate sector requires significant fiscal policy measures, such as mortgage interest subsidies, to boost market confidence and reverse negative expectations [6] Defense Industry - Recent U.S. arms sales to Japan, totaling approximately $82 million, may accelerate China's equipment development in response to increasing uncertainties in the Asia-Pacific region [6] - The geopolitical climate, influenced by Japan's military expansion and U.S. support, is likely to drive growth in China's defense capabilities [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [1] Core Views - The company achieved a record high adjusted net profit of 11.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 80.9% [8] - The automotive business delivered over 100,000 units in the quarter, marking the first operational profit in a single quarter [8] - The Xiaomi 17 series saw a significant increase in sales, with a 30% year-on-year growth compared to the previous generation [8] - The company is focusing on innovation, with R&D investment reaching 91 billion yuan in Q3 2025, and a total of 235 billion yuan for the first three quarters [8] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached 113.1 billion yuan, a 22.3% year-on-year increase [8] - The company forecasts earnings per share of 1.69, 1.76, and 2.38 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 473.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29% [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 22.5% in 2025 [7] Market Position - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue in Q3 2025 was 46 billion yuan, with a shipment of 43.3 million units, marking a 0.5% year-on-year increase [8] - The market share for smartphones priced between 4000-6000 yuan reached 18.9%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company has expanded its automotive sales network, with 402 stores opened across 119 cities in mainland China by September 30, 2025 [8] Valuation - The target price for Xiaomi Group is set at 55.86 HKD, based on a 29x PE ratio for 2026 [6][9] - The current market capitalization of H shares is approximately 1,006.835 million HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 45.12 CNY [1][4] Core Views - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue of 100.6 billion CNY in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6% and a net profit of 4.8 billion CNY, reflecting a 5.7% increase year-on-year and an 81% increase quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company is experiencing significant growth in its computing electronics, industrial and medical electronics, and automotive electronics segments, with respective year-on-year revenue increases of 70%, 41%, and 31% [8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and transitioning to advanced packaging technologies, which is expected to enhance profitability as new capacities come online [8] Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 17.2 billion CNY, 22.2 billion CNY, and 27.0 billion CNY respectively, with adjustments made to expense ratios and gross margins [4][9] - Revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 40.846 billion CNY, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year growth [6] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 14.4% by 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" with a target price of 107.73 CNY [7][12]. Core Insights - The company's financial stability is supported by diverse business segments driving growth, with a significant increase in revenue projections for PC and data center businesses [3][11]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 41 billion, 52 billion, and 63 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [3][12]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in its ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) business, particularly in the smartphone and PC sectors, with a notable increase in shipments and revenue [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 85,338 million CNY, 109,878 million CNY, 158,374 million CNY, 194,316 million CNY, and 233,809 million CNY, with growth rates of -7.9%, 28.8%, 44.1%, 22.7%, and 20.3% respectively [5][14]. - The operating profit is projected to grow from 2,831 million CNY in 2023A to 6,978 million CNY in 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of 1.0%, 6.7%, 49.7%, 28.0%, and 20.5% [5][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,707 million CNY in 2023A to 6,280 million CNY in 2027E, with growth rates of 5.6%, 8.1%, 39.2%, 28.0%, and 20.5% [5][14]. Business Performance - The company has a strong foothold in the consumer electronics sector, with a solid base that is expected to withstand short-term industry fluctuations [11]. - The PC ODM business is projected to see significant growth, with an expected revenue of over 300 billion CNY in 2025 and a shipment target of 1.8 million units [11]. - The data center business is anticipated to achieve over 40 billion CNY in revenue for 2025, with continued growth expected in AI servers and general servers [11].