基础化工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 从份额向回报，行业预期正迎来重构 化工行业的心动时刻 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 我们看好化工行业在多重因素引导下，企业经营策略出现集体转向，带来的景气度 修复。从其中优选机会，我们相对看好两个维度：一是行业份额占比大、话语权 高、有较大转变动力的龙头企业；二是具有较大竞争优势、经营策略转变后盈利情 况提升较显著的龙头企业。综上我们主要看好五个方向： MDI、石化、磷化工、 PVC 和聚酯瓶片。MDI 包括万华化学(600309，买入)；石化包括中国石化 (600028，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买入)、恒力石化(600346，买入)；磷化工包 括川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)、兴发集团(600141，买 入)；PVC 包括中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业(600075，未评级)、氯碱化工 (600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)；聚酯瓶片包括万凯新材(301216， 买入)。 风险提示 ⚫ 宏观经济形势变化；新兴国家发展形势变化；产能统计遗误；假设条件变化影响测 算结果。 | 看好（维持） | 国 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 慢牛预期强化，把握结构性机会 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期 | 可转债市场周观察 | | --- | | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 债市的核心问题不在供给，在需求：固定 | 2026-01-12 | | --- | --- ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 指数维持震荡，方向还在中盘蓝筹 朝闻道 20260121 市场策略 指数维持震荡 风格策略 方向还在中盘蓝筹 行业策略 煤炭：业从规模扩张转向质量提升 主题策略 房地产：稳预期信号增强 风险提示 煤炭价格大幅上涨，市地产逆周期政策不及预期。销售大幅下滑。房企信用风险加剧。 扰动已现震荡归，中盘蓝筹周期巍：朝闻 道 20260116 2026-01-15 警惕指数遇扰动，关注"AI+"低位补涨： 朝闻道 20260112 2026-01-10 非银助力开门红，缓涨更健康：朝闻道 20260107 2026-01-07 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 指数触及波动区后持续震荡调整，前期的热门主题亦仍在持续调整。站在当下，我 们认为短期市场仍将震荡整固，中长期上行趋势仍在。高风险偏好风格的消退更利 于长牛、慢牛、健康牛的运行。进攻的方向聚焦在风险度在中间的中盘蓝筹。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：恒生 ETF(159271) ⚫ 本周中盘蓝筹定盘星的化工板块接力穿越大盘调整，煤电油续力中盘蓝 ...

核心观点 ⚫ 我们认为房地产政策的数量不重要，重要的是政策的力度。目前看来，两类政策会 有作用：一是降息、贴息类影响购房资金成本的政策；二是收储、拆迁、以及救助 负债的企业和居民主体等直接投放大量资金的政策。近期《求是》陆续刊文聚焦房 地产和城市更新，稳预期信号持续强化，有理由期待在 2026年看到更有力度的政策 组合。 ⚫ 具体事件评述： 1） 《求是》开年陆续于文聚焦房地产和城市更新，稳预期信号持续强化。 稳预期信号增强 1 月 1 日，《求是》刊文《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》。文章强调房地产的金融属 性、在国民经济和居民财富中的重要地位，以及预期管理对稳定房市的关键作用。 明确否定"添油战术"，传递出政策将从"渐进试探"转向"精准发力、一次性到 位"的核心导向，显著提升未来政策力度和效果的预期，有望促成政策深化与预期 强化的良性互动，有助于扭转市场信心，市场正向反馈持续性显著提升。 1 月 16 日出版的《求是》发表习近平总书记重要文章《在中央城市工作会议上的讲 话》。部署城市工作 7 个方面的重点任务中，"着力建设舒适便利的宜居城市"要求 加快构建房地产发展新模式，更好满足群众刚性和多样化改善性住房需 ...

资产配置 | 定期报告 风偏继续向中间集中 20260119 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | --- | --- | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配置周报 | | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 供强需弱依然明显，内需有待更多支撑 Q4 经济数据点评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ "反内卷"下部分行业格局快速变化导致就业压力的风险。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 政策和科技资仍是融资需求主线：12 月金 融数据点评 2026-01- ...

资产配置 | 定期报告 风偏继续向中间集中 20260119 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | --- | --- | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配置周报 | | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, specifically for the spandex sector [5]. Core Insights - The spandex industry is expected to improve as supply and demand dynamics optimize due to accelerated capacity clearance. The report highlights the potential for recovery in spandex prices and profitability for leading companies with significant domestic capacity and cost advantages [3][43]. Supply Side Summary - The spandex industry is at the end of its expansion phase, with domestic capacity increasing from 593,900 tons in 2015 to 1,420,000 tons by January 2026, with major players like Huafeng Chemical leading the market [8][20]. - Since 2019, over 200,000 tons of capacity from small and medium enterprises have been shut down, leading to a concentration of supply among leading companies [26]. - The industry has faced prolonged negative gross margins since May 2023, indicating financial difficulties for many companies, which may lead to further exits from the market [29][41]. Demand Side Summary - Spandex demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by trends in activewear and tight-fitting clothing. The apparent consumption of spandex is expected to rise from 510,000 tons in 2017 to 1,027,000 tons by 2024, with a CAGR of 10.51% [33][35]. - The demand for spandex is primarily concentrated in the apparel sector, which accounts for 76% of total usage, with applications in leisurewear, jeans, underwear, and swimwear [33][34]. Supply-Demand Balance Summary - The supply-demand balance for the domestic spandex industry is improving, with limited new capacity expected and ongoing pressure on existing capacity. The anticipated demand growth from the activewear trend is expected to support this balance [40][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with price and volume elasticity, specifically Huafeng Chemical (002064, Buy), Taihe New Materials (002254, Buy), and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (000949, Not Rated). The potential profit increases from spandex price rises are highlighted, with significant earnings boosts projected for these companies [3][43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of commercial aerospace and the progress of domestic large aircraft international certification [2] - The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has begun flight testing the C919, which is expected to accelerate the global expansion of China's commercial aviation [11] - The aerospace work conference highlighted the need to break through reusable rocket technology, which is anticipated to accelerate the development of China's commercial aerospace industry [12] - The report continues to favor investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, military trade, and new quality combat capabilities [14] Summary by Sections 1.1 EASA Flight Testing of C919 - EASA has initiated flight evaluations of the C919 in Shanghai, indicating that the aircraft's performance is good and safe, with minor adjustments needed [11] - This certification is crucial for the C919 to enter international markets and compete with Boeing and Airbus, potentially reshaping the global civil aviation market [11] 1.2 Breakthrough in Reusable Rocket Technology - The aerospace work conference emphasized the importance of advancing reusable rocket technology and developing commercial aerospace and low-altitude economies [12] - The focus on low-orbit satellite constellations is seen as a new arena for major powers in space competition, with significant implications for satellite manufacturing, launching, and operations [13] 1.3 Continued Focus on Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will enhance the military sector's value, with a focus on unmanned and anti-unmanned equipment, deep-sea technology, and combat informationization [14] - The military sector is expected to see growth from both civilian and military trade, with a list of recommended stocks for investment opportunities in various segments [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to potential price fluctuations. As industrial product prices rise, domestic downstream negative feedback is increasing, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. Recent margin increases by CME and SHFE for certain products may lead to significant short-term price volatility in industrial metals. However, the overall bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the expectation of supportive policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Liquidity expectations are reverting, which does not hinder the long-term bullish logic. Recent statements from Trump favoring Hassett for the National Economic Council position have increased market expectations for the new Fed chair. The probability of a Fed rate cut in April has dropped to 30%. This has led to potential price fluctuations in precious metals due to a weakened narrative around short-term rate cuts [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.03% in the week ending January 16, ranking third among all industries [18] 3. Precious Metals - Short-term narratives around rate cuts are faltering, leading to potential price volatility in precious metals. As of January 16, SHFE gold rose by 2.57% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 2.62% to 4,590.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves to 7,415 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 14 months [14][29] 4. Copper - The report highlights that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to increased price volatility for copper. As of January 16, SHFE copper fell by 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton, while LME copper decreased by 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton. The report also notes a significant increase in global visible copper inventory [17][28] 5. Aluminum - The aluminum processing sector shows resilience, with profitability per ton of aluminum expected to remain high. As of January 16, SHFE aluminum fell by 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton. The report indicates that the average profit for the aluminum industry is around 7,868 CNY per ton [16][89]