Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the social services industry [4] Core Insights - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism data aligns with expectations, highlighting strong performance in duty-free shopping, inbound tourism, and leading mountain scenic spots. The upcoming long Spring Festival holiday and supportive tourism policies are expected to boost domestic consumption, leading to a favorable outlook for the social services industry in 2026 [3][7] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with 142 million domestic trips taken during the New Year holiday, a 5.2% increase compared to 2024. Total domestic travel expenditure reached 84.79 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with per capita spending increasing by 1.1% [7] Duty-Free Shopping - Duty-free sales in Hainan during the New Year holiday showed significant growth, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase year-on-year. The number of shoppers reached 83,500, up 60.6%, and total spending was 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase. This growth is attributed to the official launch of duty-free operations, new policies, and promotional activities [7] Scenic Spots - Leading mountain scenic spots demonstrated strong visitor elasticity, with Huangshan receiving over 75,000 visitors (up 76.5% year-on-year), Emei Mountain hosting 126,200 visitors (up 20.9%), and Changbai Mountain seeing a 41% increase in visitors compared to 2025. The expansion of high-speed rail and airports contributed to this growth [7] Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - Inbound tourism and winter sports are emerging as key growth drivers, with a 110% year-on-year increase in inbound ticket bookings and a more than 30-fold increase in experiential product bookings. Domestic winter sports continue to be a central theme for growth in 2026 [7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of A-share market efficiency provides a solid foundation for the development of passive investment, with the scale of passive equity funds in the domestic public fund market exceeding 50% in 2025 [5]. - The effectiveness of the A-share market is lower than that of Hong Kong and US stocks, and the effectiveness of small-cap and technology stock indices is weaker than that of large-cap stock indices. The effectiveness of the A-share market shows an overall upward trend [5]. - There is a significant negative correlation between the excess return of active funds and index effectiveness. As the difficulty of obtaining Alpha increases, the demand for diversified Beta and Smart Beta on the equity side increases, highlighting the importance of asset allocation [5]. - There is a balance point between the scale ratios of active and passive funds. In the choice of funds, it is recommended to allocate ETFs in the large-cap style market, select active equity funds in the mid-cap style market, and choose quantitative funds for small-cap style allocation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 A-share Equity Fund Market: Passive Investment Proportion Exceeds 50% - In 2025, the scale of domestic passive equity funds exceeded that of active equity funds for the first time, and this trend continues. The reasons include the difficulty of obtaining sustainable excess returns from active funds, the improvement of A-share market efficiency, and the development of domestic investment advisory services [9]. 3.2 Rise in Passive Investment Proportion Due to Market Efficiency Improvement - As market efficiency improves, it becomes more difficult to obtain Alpha, leading to the rise of Beta investment. Passive investment includes pure passive investment and factor-based passive investment (Smart Beta) [14]. - There is a balance point between active and passive funds, and the scale ratio of passive investment will not increase indefinitely. Ideal asset allocation should be an organic combination based on the market cycle, asset categories, and strategy capacity [15]. 3.3 Market Efficiency and Testing Methods 3.3.1 Origin and Connotation of the Efficient Market Theory - The study of market efficiency can be traced back to 1889, and Eugene Fama formally defined and improved the efficient market theory, dividing market efficiency into three levels: weak, semi-strong, and strong [18][19][20]. 3.3.2 Testing Methods for the Efficient Market Theory - **Weak Form Tests**: By testing whether the price sequence residual is white noise, it can be determined whether the stock price is likely to follow a random walk, which is used to judge market efficiency. The Ljung - Box test is commonly used for white noise testing [21][25][27]. - **Semi - Strong Form Tests**: Economists generally use the event study method to test the reaction speed of stock prices to public information [29]. - **Strong Form Tests**: This tests whether investors can obtain excess returns using insider information. It studies the returns of professional investors or insiders [30][31]. 3.4 Exploration of Market Efficiency in A-share, Hong Kong, and US Stocks - Since 2013, the efficiency of A-share has been slightly lower than that of Hong Kong and US stocks, and the efficiency of small-cap and technology stock indices is weaker than that of large-cap stock indices. After 2018, the efficiency of the A-share market has increased rapidly [34][38][40]. - There is a significant negative correlation between the excess return of active funds and index efficiency. As market efficiency improves, the difficulty of obtaining Alpha in A-shares increases [43]. 3.5 Fund Investment Choices under the Background of Improved Market Efficiency 3.5.1 ETF: Emphasizing Multi-Asset ETFs and Equity Smart Beta - As the demand for diversified Beta increases, the importance of asset allocation becomes prominent. ETFs are becoming increasingly important in the strategic position of asset allocation, and the proportion of ETFs in the holdings of public FOFs continues to rise, with diversified demand [47][50]. - Strategy ETFs (Smart Beta factor ETFs) show relatively independent trends, providing a source of differentiated Beta in the equity market and playing an important role in asset allocation [52]. - Industry ETFs are mostly market - capitalization weighted, with large-cap stocks contributing more to returns. Since it is difficult to obtain excess returns from large-cap stocks, investment is recommended to be based on long - term allocation [55][56]. 3.5.2 Active Equity and Quantitative Investment: Obtaining Alpha Returns from Small and Mid - Cap Stocks - Active equity funds are more exposed to mid - cap stocks. The trading environment of mid - cap stocks is more friendly to actively managed funds, with lower pricing efficiency and lower difficulty in obtaining excess returns compared to large - cap stocks, and relatively sufficient liquidity [61][62]. - Quantitative funds may be a better choice for investing in small - cap stocks. Quantitative strategies can improve the objectivity and winning rate of decision - making, and have advantages in terms of stock coverage and trading execution [69][70][71].

⚫ 英伟达推出推理上下文内存存储平台，AI 存储需求持续扩张。相关标的：国内半导 体设备企业中微公司、精智达、京仪装备、微导纳米、拓荆科技、北方华创等；国 内封测企业深科技、汇成股份、通富微电等；配套逻辑芯片厂商晶合集成等；布局 端侧 AI 存储方案的兆易创新、北京君正等；受益存储技术迭代的澜起科技、联芸科 技等；国产存储方案厂商江波龙、德明利、佰维存储、联想集团等。 英伟达推出推理上下文内存存储平台，AI 存储需求持续扩张 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 AI 落地不及预期，技术迭代速度不及预期，国产化进展不及预期 电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 06 日 看好（维持） | 薛宏伟 | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | --- | --- | | | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 蒯剑 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn ...

报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 06 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 委内瑞拉事件对美国"例外溢价"或短多 长空 ——海外札记 20260105 研究结论 风险提示 美国就业数据大幅走弱、经济陷入衰退的风险。 美国深陷委内瑞拉长期拉锯的风险。 | 美元周期还在探底，人民币 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - Rising raw material prices have led some brands to initiate price increases, with leading companies demonstrating stronger pricing power and higher profit certainty. The upcoming CES event is expected to catalyze interest in smart consumer hardware [2] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1. Leading companies exhibit higher operational efficiency and stability during cost-up cycles, making them preferred choices for conservative allocations. Recommended stocks include Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, not rated), and Hisense Visual (600060, increase holding) [2] 2. International expansion remains a long-term focus, with a potential valuation shift expected in 2026. Recommended stock is Stone Technology (688169, buy) [2] Summary by Sections - **Price Increases**: Midea announced price hikes of 2% and 4% for certain models starting January 3 and January 5, 2026, respectively, due to significant increases in copper prices, which have risen by 11% over the past month and 42% over the past year. Copper is a key raw material, accounting for approximately 20% of air conditioner costs [6] - **Profitability Mechanism**: The report estimates that a 30% increase in copper prices would necessitate a 5% price increase to fully offset cost increases, while Midea's price hikes exceed 6%, indicating effective cost management strategies [6] - **CES Focus Areas**: The report identifies three main areas of interest for CES: 1. AI glasses with over 50 brands showcasing new products 2. Robotics, including new laser radar lawnmowers and advanced cleaning robots 3. Other smart consumer hardware innovations such as AI companion robots and 3D printing [6]

——美国突袭委内瑞拉影响快评 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 美委地缘扰动不改中国出海大势 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 05 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.c ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements and innovations in edge AI, predicting accelerated integration into various hardware products and industrial applications by 2026 [9][10] - Key players in the edge AI sector include chip manufacturers, terminal product manufacturers, and core component manufacturers, with specific companies highlighted for investment opportunities [3][10] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on the upgrade and innovation breakthroughs in edge AI, with recommended stocks including: - Edge AI main control chip manufacturers: Amlogic, Aojie Technology, Hengxuan Technology, Espressif Technology, Starshine Technology, Rockchip [3][10] - Terminal product manufacturers: Lenovo Group, Xiaomi Group, Luxshare Precision, Linying Intelligent Manufacturing, BYD Electronics, Lens Technology, Ezviz, Innosilicon [3][10] - Core component manufacturers: Huanxu Electronics, Sunny Optical Technology, Orbbec, SUTENG, STMicroelectronics, OmniVision, and Pegatron [3][10]

宏观经济 | 专题报告 美元周期还在探底，人民币升值顺风未尽 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 05 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 研究结论 外部定价锚是美元周期。2025 年美国就业超预期走弱、美联储三次降息，美元指数 今年以来大概跌了将近 10%，这是人民币今年整体升值的最主要来源。 内部定 ...

汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 以旧换新政策落地，关注部分整车及机器 人产业链公司 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，预计能确定进入特斯拉、Figure、智元、宇树等机器人配套产业链的汽 零将受益，海外市场销售规模提升及在智驾技术方面领先的整车企业将继续扩大市场份 额。建议持续关注人形机器人链、液冷产业链、出海链、T 链、智驾产业链公司。 液冷相关标的：英维克、银轮股份、拓普集团、三花智控、飞龙股份、川环科技等；其 他相关标的：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、赛力斯、中国重汽、宇通客车；新泉股 份、博俊科技、爱柯迪、嵘泰股份、经纬恒润、岱美股份、沪光股份、保隆科技、精锻 科技、斯菱股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛西威、科博达、星宇股份、福耀 玻璃、浙江荣泰等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 05 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The core view is that the index may experience a pullback, but this will not change the upward trend, and the pullback provides an opportunity to focus on mid-cap blue chips in the chemical sector [2][10] Group 2 - Market analysis indicates that the index may have a pullback, which offers a chance for positioning; the recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index aligns with previous expectations, and the pullback does not alter the overall upward trend [3][11] - Factors influencing investor sentiment include the rebound in the Hong Kong market and geopolitical events in South America, although the latter may lead to a short-term market correction [3][11] Group 3 - The investment opportunities are expected to arise in mid-cap blue chips with moderate risk characteristics, particularly in the cyclical sector, focusing on the chemical industry where supply optimization and improving profit margins are anticipated [3][12] Group 4 - The report highlights thematic investments in areas such as aerospace satellites, domestic AI, semiconductors, and nuclear fusion, with each sector showing potential for growth and investment opportunities [4][13] - The aerospace satellite sector remains a focal point, with ongoing IPO progress and various applications expected to accelerate [4][13] - Domestic AI is gaining attention as domestic computing power development accelerates amid challenges in overseas narratives [4][13] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see expansion and domestic substitution, with significant capital movements in key companies [4][13] - The nuclear fusion sector is anticipated to experience a series of industrial catalysts, moving from theoretical research to practical engineering, which is expected to generate substantial investment demand [4][13] Group 5 - The solid-state battery sector is noted for its prolonged adjustment period, with potential catalysts expected in the first quarter, making it a point of interest for investors [5][14]