Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the strategic opportunities in industrial metals, suggesting a focus on this sector as the global trend of de-globalization deepens and the technological attributes of strategic metals increase. With copper prices approaching 100,000, it is seen as a favorable time for strategic allocation in industrial metals [9][14]. - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked basic material in the context of de-globalization, with improving supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices higher. The report notes that the recent decline in zinc smelting fees indicates ongoing supply tightness, and there is optimism regarding demand from re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [9][14]. - The copper sector is viewed positively, with short-term price fluctuations not affecting the upward trend in equities. The report anticipates improvements in copper prices and smelting fees due to supply constraints and upcoming mine restarts [9][15]. - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [9][16]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report suggests focusing on industrial metals as the market sentiment cools, with potential investment opportunities emerging [9][14]. - Zinc is identified as a critical material with a positive outlook due to supply-demand improvements and infrastructure needs in developing regions [9][14]. - Copper is expected to see price stability and profit improvements for smelting companies as major mines plan to resume operations [9][15]. - Aluminum is projected to experience steady growth in profitability, supported by supply chain advantages and rising demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [9][16]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing a weak fundamental backdrop as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [17]. - Steel production has seen a slight decrease, with rebar consumption increasing by 8.79% week-on-week, indicating a marginal strengthening in demand [22][17]. - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory slightly increasing [24]. - Steel prices have generally seen a minor increase, with the overall price index rising by 0.15% [36]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [40]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44]. - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, reflecting the increasing demand and supply dynamics in the new energy metals market [49][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6] Core Views - Continuous focus on strategic opportunities in industrial metals is emphasized, with a recommendation to concentrate on the industrial metal sector as the market sentiment cools and volatility increases [9][14] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with expectations for price increases due to improving supply-demand dynamics [9][14] - The copper sector is viewed positively in the medium term, with expectations for price and smelting fee improvements despite short-term fluctuations [9][15] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from supply chain security and competitive advantages, leading to potential valuation premiums [9][16] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report suggests that industrial metals are entering a favorable strategic allocation period as copper prices approach 100,000 [9][14] - Zinc is expected to see price increases driven by demand from re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, despite domestic construction concerns [9][14] - Copper prices are anticipated to improve due to supply constraints, with significant copper mines expected to resume production in 2026 [9][15] - The aluminum sector is projected to experience steady profit growth due to enhanced supply chain security and rising aluminum prices [9][16] Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the sector [17] - Weekly rebar consumption increased by 8.79% week-on-week, indicating a marginal strengthening in demand [22] - Steel production saw a slight decrease, with iron output down by 0.65% and rebar production down by 0.39% [19][22] - Steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the overall steel price index rising by 0.15% [36] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen significantly, reflecting strong market demand [49][51]

Core Views - The market is returning to a healthy state, and a steady oscillation is essential for long-term sustainability, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips and themes aligned with national strategies [10][11]. Market Analysis - The index experienced a pullback after a high this week, confirming the expectation of a stable market after a short-term emotional release. The regulatory body's work meeting outlined five key tasks for 2026, reinforcing confidence among domestic and international investors and stabilizing the current downward trend in market risk assessment [3][11]. - The regulatory body's precise management of market expectations has effectively mitigated the risk of a market frenzy, leading to a shift in risk preferences. High-risk investors are likely to lower their risk appetite, while low-risk investors are gaining confidence, resulting in an overall movement towards a balanced risk preference [3][11]. Industry Comparison - The report emphasizes a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical chemical sector. The previous trends in technology and dividends are seen as reaching their peak, with future investment opportunities expected to arise in stocks with moderate risk characteristics. The mid-cap blue chip market is anticipated to rise, especially in the chemical sector, where profit improvements are expected due to optimized supply structures and marginally improving demand [12][3]. Thematic Investments - Attention is directed towards the semiconductor, robotics, and aerospace satellite sectors. The semiconductor industry is experiencing an upward shift in expectations, with TSMC's positive outlook potentially leading to a revaluation of the sector. Domestic wafer manufacturers are expected to expand production this year, and the capital processes of domestic memory chip leaders are advancing, aligning with national strategies for self-sufficiency [13][3]. - In robotics, significant industry milestones are anticipated in the first quarter, including the release of Tesla's V3 version and its mass production by year-end. The robotics sector is also expected to gain visibility during major events like the Spring Festival [4][13]. - The aerospace satellite sector remains a key focus for national support, with expectations for progress in catching up with international advancements. Investment should focus on companies with genuine performance release expectations or those significantly involved in national aerospace initiatives [4][13]. - The nuclear fusion sector is projected to experience a series of industrial catalysts, transitioning from theoretical research to engineering practice, which is expected to generate substantial investment demand in the future [14][3]. - Short-term price increases are anticipated, with structural growth in demand and supply constraints providing upward price elasticity for related commodities, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals [14][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the coal industry [5] Core Insights - The coal industry is shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement, with companies actively promoting integration and restructuring [3][8] - Despite concerns about seasonal price trends in the coal industry from March to May, the report suggests that the bottom of the long-term cycle has been reached, with potential for an upward trend [3] - Short-term price rebounds for thermal coal and coking coal are expected, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [3] - The restructuring efforts in the coal sector are expected to enhance the competitiveness of quality listed companies in the future [3] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The long-term fundamentals of the coal industry are expected to improve, highlighting the value of sector allocation [3] - Domestic production capacity is anticipated to decrease, and imports are expected to contract, indicating a potential upward trend in the coal sector [3] - The report notes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have stopped declining and are showing signs of recovery [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report indicates a significant recovery in coal mine operating rates, with independent coking plants beginning seasonal restocking [22][31] - The average daily output of pig iron and the utilization rate of cement production capacity have shown a decline [24][26] - The report highlights that coal prices have continued to rise, although the upward trend has faced some resistance recently [13][15] Price Comparisons and Valuations - The coal sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index since the beginning of 2026, with a reported increase of 3.1% [8] - The price-to-book ratio (PB) for the coal sector is at 1.45 times, indicating a historically low valuation compared to the broader market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recovery in pig prices is driven by inventory replenishment, with prices expected to reach a turning point in Q2 2026 [2][12] - The report emphasizes the structural growth trends in the post-cycle sector, indicating that if the current round of pig production capacity reduction proceeds smoothly, profits in the industry chain are likely to gradually transmit downstream [3][35] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The report forecasts a significant recovery in pig prices, with the national average price reaching 13 CNY/kg by January 18, 2026, following a structural supply shortage [12] - The report notes that the market's pessimistic expectations regarding pig prices are likely to be corrected, as the supply side shows structural shortages and the average weight of pigs remains at historical lows [9][12] Poultry Sector - White feather broiler prices have shown a slight decline, with the average price at 7.59 CNY/kg as of January 16, 2026, reflecting limited increases in slaughter volumes and rising inventory levels among processing enterprises [16] - Yellow feather broiler prices are expected to remain strong, with price differentials among different types of chickens widening [21] Feed Sector - The report indicates that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices rising to 2363.92 CNY/ton and wheat prices at 2515.89 CNY/ton as of January 16, 2026 [25][43] - The demand side shows strong pricing from traders, with some deep processing enterprises increasing purchase prices [25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, with specific stocks such as Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) being highlighted for potential investment [3][35] - It also suggests opportunities in the planting chain and pet food sectors, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) and Pet Food Company (301498) being noted [3][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive and parts industry is maintained at Neutral [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing preheating of Optimus V3, with a strong expectation for its release in Q1 2026, suggesting continued attention on core suppliers of T robots [12][15] - A new proposal in the U.S. Congress aims to significantly increase the deployment cap for autonomous vehicles, which could facilitate the large-scale rollout of Cybercab services [13] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has set a directive to accelerate breakthroughs in autonomous driving technology, indicating a potential speed-up in the commercialization of high-level autonomous driving [14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that the high-level autonomous driving supply chain and companies that can secure entry into the Tesla and other robot supply chains will benefit. Competitive domestic brands and companies leading in autonomous driving technology are expected to continue expanding their market share. Key sectors to watch include humanoid robots, liquid cooling supply chains, T chains, and autonomous driving companies [3][15][16] Sales Tracking - According to preliminary statistics, from January 1 to 11, 2026, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in China were 381,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 40%, while retail sales were 328,000 units, down 32% year-on-year [17] Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with the commercial vehicle sector showing strong performance [31][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the utility sector, indicating a favorable investment environment [7][3]. Core Insights - December's electricity consumption growth was affected by temperature, but a stable growth rate is expected for 2026, with an anticipated growth rate of around 5% [7][10]. - The report highlights that the long-term electricity price reform is necessary to support the increasingly complex new energy system in China [7]. - The performance expectations for the utility sector have reached a low point, making low-priced utility assets worth considering for investment [7]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In 2025, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with growth rates for different sectors being +9.9% for primary industry, +3.7% for secondary industry, +8.2% for tertiary industry, and +6.3% for residential use [10][9]. - The average national temperature in December 2025 was -1.1°C, which contributed to the decline in electricity consumption growth [7][10]. Coal Prices and Supply - Coal prices at ports and production sites have weakened slightly, aligning with previous expectations. The report anticipates that short-term coal prices will remain stable with limited upward potential [7][27]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 695 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% [27][30]. Performance of Utility Sector - The utility sector index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.7 percentage points during the week of January 10-16, 2026 [53]. - The report suggests that the utility sector remains a quality dividend asset for long-term investment, especially under the current low-interest-rate environment [7][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on utility stocks, particularly in thermal, hydropower, nuclear, and renewable energy sectors, with specific stocks highlighted for potential investment [7][3]. - Notable stocks include: - Thermal Power: Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Waneng Power [7]. - Hydropower: Yangtze Power, Guiguan Power, Chuanwei Energy, and Huaneng Hydropower [7]. - Nuclear Power: China General Nuclear Power [7]. - Wind and Solar: Longyuan Power [7].

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 情绪干扰，价格放大高波动 ——钴锂金属行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 短期来看，锂盐价格在高位波动加剧背景下仍面临阶段性回调压力，尤其碳酸锂受下游 高价接受度有限影响，价格或呈现震荡消化态势；春节前依靠趋势惯性有望完成最后的 冲顶。但是供需格局已经确认反转，长期锂价中枢较前期明显上移。钴方面，尽管终端 需求偏弱，但中间品供应紧张与冶炼成本支撑仍在，钴盐价格相对坚挺，整体价格重心 短期下行空间有限。 风险提示 新能源汽车增速不及预期，储能装机增速不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 18 日 看好（维持） | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宁紫微 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120005 | | | ningziwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 奇点已至，镁业腾飞：——镁行业系列报 | 2026- ...

Group 1: Growth Trends - The "first growth curve" driven by the "numerator" is recognized, with a shift from infrastructure to manufacturing exports expected in 2025[4] - China's overseas investment demand is still on a high growth trajectory, with a three-year rapid growth cycle observed in capital goods exports[4] - In 2025, direct investment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is projected to increase significantly, particularly in Asia and Africa[4] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical risks, particularly from Western countries, are increasingly impacting overseas investment decisions, exemplified by the U.S. "long-arm jurisdiction" policies[4] - Emerging economies face challenges related to economic stability and high debt levels, with African nations experiencing a shift from concessional loans to higher-cost commercial loans[4] - High inflation rates in regions like Africa, averaging 18.6% in 2024, pose risks to profit margins for companies operating abroad[4] Group 3: Strategic Responses - The Chinese government aims to enhance cooperation with BRI countries and improve risk management in overseas investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] - Development of international financial infrastructure, such as the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, is seen as a key lever to mitigate risks associated with overseas investments[4] - The establishment of a gold central clearing system in Hong Kong is expected to facilitate RMB-denominated gold transactions, enhancing financial stability for emerging economies[4]

特斯拉 V3 确定性提升，产能扩张在即，看 好制造经营优势企业 ——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 近期关于特斯拉 V3 机器人的公开信息增多，我们认为市场的担忧下降、行业景气度上升 的确定性上升，由此带来投资机会。在 V3 落地后，我们预计行业将进入产能扩建，而制 造和经营能力领先的企业更具投资机会。相关标的：拓普集团(601689，买入)、三花智 控(002050，买入)、五洲新春(603667，买入)、恒立液压(601100，未评级)、震裕科技 (300953，买入)。 风险提示 厂商生产不及预期、场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、国家政策变化导致行业发展放 缓、行业融资不及预期、模型发展和数据采集慢于预期、订单执行效果低于预期、产品 降价风险。 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 17 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 电感编码器性能卓越，机器人应用打开长 | 2026 ...