Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The central economic work conference has outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and green transformation, which will drive optimization in the chemical industry [8] - MDI prices have shown strong resilience, influenced by unexpected production halts in major facilities, leading to a favorable supply-demand situation [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is expected to recover, with specific focus on MDI, PVC, and phosphate chemicals due to strong demand from energy storage growth [3][8] Investment Recommendations - Companies with potential for recovery in the PVC sector include: Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Tianyuan Co., all currently unrated [3] - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical is rated as "Buy" [3] - In the phosphate chemical sector, companies to watch include: Chuanheng Co. and Yuntianhua, both currently unrated [3] - In the oxalic acid industry, recommended stocks include: Hualu Hengsheng, Huayi Group, and Wankai New Materials, all rated as "Buy" [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" for specific companies within the steel sector, indicating a strong potential for returns exceeding 15% relative to market benchmarks [3][12]. Core Insights - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products is expected to optimize the export structure, encouraging companies to shift towards high-value products and enhancing domestic profitability [8]. - The domestic steel demand is declining due to the downturn in the real estate sector, with crude steel apparent consumption expected to decrease by 4.4% in 2024, while net exports are projected to rise by over 30% [8]. - The anticipated stabilization of steel profitability is supported by a balance in supply and demand, alongside a downward trend in costs, suggesting a shift towards high-quality and high-return development in the industry [8]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) for its strong pricing power and stable profitability - CITIC Special Steel (000708, Buy) for its continuous optimization of product structure - Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) for its significant profit improvement driven by operational synergies and cost reduction [3]. - Other companies mentioned include: - Hualing Steel (000932, Not Rated) - Sansteel Minguang (002110, Not Rated) [3]. Export License Management Impact - The implementation of export licenses for 300 steel products, including pig iron and steel plates, marks a new phase in domestic steel export management, aiming to guide companies towards higher-value exports [8]. - The management is expected to alleviate the pressure of overcapacity in the domestic market by regulating low-end product exports [8]. Market Dynamics and Profitability Outlook - The first shipment of high-grade iron ore from the Simandou project indicates a potential decrease in iron ore prices, which could positively impact steel profitability [8]. - The expectation of improved dividend capabilities for companies as capital expenditures for environmental upgrades peak and decline [8].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November, social financing (社融) increased by 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year, a significant recovery compared to a decrease of 595.9 billion yuan in October[6] - The overall credit scale stabilized, but the willingness of residents to "leverage" remains low, with long-term loans decreasing by 290 billion yuan year-on-year in November[6] - Corporate bond financing demand was strong, with an increase of 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year in November, maintaining above 150 billion yuan for three consecutive months[6] Group 2: Policy Impact and Economic Trends - Policy support and strong financing demand in the technology sector are the main drivers of the recovery in social financing[6] - The impact of government bond financing on social financing has weakened, with a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan in November, significantly less than the 564.3 billion yuan decrease in October[6] - The distribution of 500 billion yuan in government debt quotas to local governments is expected to provide effective support to the real economy[6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Despite the recovery in social financing, underlying demand issues persist, as indicated by declines in M1 and M2 money supply[6] - The widening gap between M1 and M2 suggests ongoing challenges in the economy[10] - Risks include potential economic recovery falling short of expectations amid escalating trade tensions and tighter overseas monetary policies[4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas expansion and AI applications in the automotive industry, particularly for vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers, as a means to achieve growth and value reassessment by 2026 [2][9][14]. Group 1: Automotive Industry Overview - In 2025, the domestic automotive market experienced significant growth due to policies promoting vehicle replacement and increasing exports, with a notable rise in sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) [14][19]. - The outlook for 2026 indicates potential growth pressures in the domestic market due to tightening policies and the phasing out of tax exemptions for NEVs, while exports are expected to remain a key growth driver [15][20]. Group 2: Vehicle Segment Analysis - The report forecasts that the domestic passenger vehicle market will see stable sales, with an estimated total of 30.37 million units in 2026, reflecting a 1.1% year-on-year increase, driven by export growth [29][39]. - The export volume of passenger vehicles is projected to reach approximately 6.56 million units in 2026, representing a 14% year-on-year increase, as domestic brands enhance their overseas presence [39][40]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - The penetration rate of NEVs is expected to continue rising, with sales projected at around 17.41 million units in 2026, marking a 12% year-on-year increase [9][30]. - The report highlights a shift from a "price war" to a "value war" among NEV manufacturers, indicating a competitive landscape focused on quality and technology [9][16]. Group 4: Auto Parts Industry - The report identifies overseas business as a crucial growth point for auto parts companies, with expectations of improved profitability from international operations as companies expand their global footprint [9][16]. - AI applications in areas such as humanoid robots, AI liquid cooling, and intelligent driving are anticipated to create new growth opportunities for parts suppliers, with significant advancements expected in 2026 [9][16][19]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on mid-cap blue-chip companies in the auto parts sector, as their overseas business is expected to contribute significantly to profitability in the coming years [3][9]. - Key investment targets include companies like Yinchuan, New Spring, Top Group, and others that are well-positioned to benefit from the trends in overseas expansion and AI integration [3].

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a surge in innovative products, with clear domestic demand and significant potential for international expansion [4][14][25] - Investment opportunities are concentrated in innovative drugs and their supply chains, with a notable performance from CRO/CMO and chemical pharmaceuticals [9][15][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation as the primary solution to industry challenges, driven by stable demand and supportive policies [26][32][41] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector has faced revenue declines, with a 0.9% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and net profit down by 2.2% [15][16] - The innovative drug sector has outperformed, with CRO/CMO and chemical pharmaceuticals showing net profit growth of 31.0% and 16.6% respectively [17][18] - The overall market is characterized by low fund holdings and historical valuation bottoms, indicating high investment value [20][25] Demand and Payment Dynamics - The demand for healthcare services is steadily increasing, with a projected 5% growth in total medical visits and hospital admissions in 2024 [26][28] - The aging population is expected to drive long-term demand, with 220 million people aged 65 and above by 2050 [28][30] - The medical insurance fund's income growth has outpaced expenditure growth, leading to a significant increase in fund reserves [32][36] Financing and Market Trends - The IPO market for healthcare has rebounded, with 28 IPOs in the first three quarters of 2025, a 100% increase from the previous year [42][43] - License-out transactions have surged, with transaction numbers increasing by 41% and total amounts reaching $92 billion, indicating a robust market for innovative drug licensing [48][50] - The number of IND applications and new clinical trials for innovative drugs has been steadily increasing, with a notable rise in NDA approvals [53][57] Technological Advancements - The report highlights the emergence of new technologies such as ADC and small nucleic acids, with domestic companies leading in these areas [60] - The focus on dual antibodies and GLP-1 drugs is expected to drive significant growth, with multiple development directions emerging [9][60] - The report notes that domestic companies are increasingly recognized for their innovative capabilities, particularly in the ADC space [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - The increase in coal power capacity price compensation in Yunnan province is expected to accelerate the development of provincial capacity pricing policies across various regions [7] - The decline in port coal prices and high inventory levels are influencing market dynamics, with expectations of a gradual narrowing of price declines in the future [7] - The utility sector is viewed as a defensive asset, with low-priced utility assets becoming increasingly attractive for investors [7] - The report emphasizes the need for further market-oriented pricing reforms to support the evolving power system as renewable energy consumption increases [7] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report expresses optimism for the utility sector, highlighting the advantages of dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [7] - Specific stock recommendations include Huadian International (600027), Guodian Power (600795), Huaneng International (600011), Anhui Energy (000543), and Jiantou Energy (000600) for thermal power [7] - For hydropower, it suggests focusing on quality large hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power (600900) and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674) [7] - Nuclear power is noted for its long-term growth certainty, with China General Nuclear Power (003816) recommended [7] - Wind and solar sectors are expected to see growth, with a focus on companies with high wind power ratios [7] Industry Dynamics - Yunnan province's coal power capacity price compensation has increased to 100% of fixed costs, which is expected to alleviate operational pressures on coal power plants [7] - Port coal prices have continued to decline, with the Qinhuangdao port price for Shanxi Q5500 coal at 745 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.1% [13] - The report notes that coal inventory levels are high, with Qinhuangdao port coal inventory at 7.22 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.5% [21] - The average electricity price in Guangdong has decreased by 13.0% year-on-year, while Shanxi has seen a significant drop of 57.9% [10] Hydrology and Water Levels - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level is currently at 172 meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [29] - The average inflow to the Three Gorges Reservoir has decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while the outflow has increased by 93% since Q4 2025 [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy financial tools and asset expansion resilience [6][23]. Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to stabilize net interest margins due to a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, with structural risks anticipated to receive policy support [3][23]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks and state-owned banks with defensive value [24]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - In November 2025, social financing (社融) grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with a monthly increment of 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [10][9]. - The structure of social financing showed a decrease in RMB loans by 116.3 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak demand for credit [10][9]. - Government bonds decreased by 104.8 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate direct financing increased by 170.2 billion yuan, with bond financing up by 178.8 billion yuan [10][9]. Loan Trends - Total RMB loans grew by 6.4% year-on-year in November, with a total of 390 billion yuan in new loans, reflecting a decline in both household and corporate loans [13][14]. - Household loans saw a significant drop, with short-term loans down by 178.8 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans down by 290 billion yuan [13][14]. - Corporate loans increased by 281.9 billion yuan, primarily driven by bill discounting [14][13]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth fell to 4.9% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.0%, with the gap between M2 and M1 increasing to 3.1% [20][21]. - New RMB deposits totaled 1.41 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 760 billion yuan year-on-year, with declines across all categories including household and non-bank deposits [20][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, while also considering state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for their defensive value [24][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][43] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction, with current pig prices and expectations both weak, leading to a significant decline in profitability [9] - In November, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.82 million pigs, a decrease of 2.21% month-on-month but an increase of 22.48% year-on-year [13] - The average selling price of pigs showed a slight recovery, with prices ranging from 11.1 to 12.53 yuan/kg, although still down approximately 30% year-on-year [15] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices slightly down and soybean meal prices up [28] - As of December 12, corn prices averaged 2,356.67 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, while soybean meal prices rose by 1.54% to 3,159.43 yuan/ton [28] Planting Sector - The report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, suggesting favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, with significant investment opportunities [3][43] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing domestic brand recognition and continuous growth among leading companies [3][43]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 鹰派降息变鸽派，中期路径仍待就业数据 决定 ——2025 年 12 月 fomc 点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 13 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 12 月鹰派降息或在预期之内，未来货币政 | 2025-12-09 | | --- | --- | | ...

飞入寻常百姓家，行业扩张奇点时刻降临 3D 打印行业报告 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 3D 打印行业当前渗透率低，人造万物需求扩张和 3D 农场模式普及有望推动行业快速放 量，叠加生态闭环强化，行业 PE 中枢有望上移。 相关标的：消费级 3D 打印服务运营商汇纳科技(300609，未评级)；工业级 3D 金属打印 设备商铂力特(688333，未评级)、华曙高科(688433，未评级)；3D 打印材料商家联科技 (301193，未评级)、有研粉材(688456，未评级)。 风险提示 1）市场渗透风险。2）生态依赖风险。3）技术迭代风险。4）假设条件变化影响测算结 果。 家电行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 国家/地区 中国 行业 家电行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 13 日 看好（维持） | 曲世强 | 执业证书编号：S0860525100004 | | --- | --- | | | qushiqiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李汉颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860525100006 | | | lihanying@orientsec.com ...