可转债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 转债补跌幅度有限，交易情绪较弱 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期； 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应：固定 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 收益市场周观察 | | | 正股大幅下跌，转债明显惜售：可转债市 | 2025-11-25 | | 场周观察 | | | 关注永续品种定价偏离带来的机会：信用 | 2025-11-24 | | 债市场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 转债在估值不断积累过后上周开始补跌，百元溢价率显著回调，但并未回到 11 月中 旬均值水平。转债资产由于绝对价格和估值水平均过高因此配置意愿较弱，高位的 支撑来两方面，一是供给小于需求下的稀缺性溢价，二是权益市场强势环境带来的 支撑，两大因素未被彻底打破前转债估值依然坚挺。 ⚫ 我们认为，当前转债性价比已处于低位，估值过高叠加优质个 ...

罗莱生活 002293.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 增持（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年11月28日） | 9.53 元 | | 目标价格 | 11.34 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 10.05/6.69 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 83,384/82,658 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 7,947 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | | 基本面逐步改善 高分红预期有望延续 | 2025-09-11 | | --- | --- | | 分红超预期，经营表现逐步向好 | 2025-04-28 | | 经营短期承压，静待拐点到来 | 2024-11-01 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 2.03 | 1.38 | 15.62 | 17.3 | | 相对表现% | 0.39 | 4.9 | 14.21 | 0.41 | | 沪深 300% | ...

华润万象生活 01209.HK 公司研究 | 深度报告 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年11月27日） | 45.74 港元 | | 目标价格 | 52.55 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 46.54/25.22 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 228,250/228,250 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 104,402 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 房地产 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 4.24 | 8.39 | 23.81 | 64.71 | | 相对表现% | 3.81 | 10.24 | 20.86 | 32.35 | | 恒生指数% | 0.43 | -1.85 | 2.95 | 32.36 | | 赵旭翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | | --- | --- | | | zhaoxuxiang@orientse ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous and steel sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in these industries [9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that a cross-year market for gold and copper may unfold, making it an opportune time to invest in non-ferrous metals [9][10]. - It highlights that the copper supply shortage is expected to continue, which may drive up copper prices, while strict control over smelting capacity could lead to improved profitability for midstream players [9][10]. - The report also emphasizes the bullish outlook for gold prices, projecting a rise to $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [9][10]. - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, the report suggests that despite recent stock dilution, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain intact, presenting opportunities for investment [9][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report notes a 3.37% increase in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by a significant rise in copper prices due to supply constraints and inflation expectations [9][10]. - It highlights the historical high copper premium set by Codelco, which is expected to further tighten supply [9][10]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in copper, gold, and aluminum sectors [9][10]. Steel Industry - The report indicates a slight decrease in iron and steel production, with rebar consumption at 2.28 million tons, down 1.23% week-on-week but up 1.15% year-on-year [16][21]. - It mentions that overall steel inventory continues to decline, with total social and steel mill inventories down by 2.15% [23][24]. - The profitability of most steel products has significantly improved due to rising costs, with the average price index for common steel rising by 0.42% [26][35]. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [39][40]. - It also notes that the production of new energy vehicles continues to grow, with October 2025 production reaching 1.68 million units, up 19.94% year-on-year [43][46]. - The report highlights price increases in lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate priced at 93,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.27% week-on-week [49][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.94 CNY based on a 39x PE ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging AI across its business operations to enhance competitiveness and efficiency, particularly in virtual power plant operations and electricity trading [2][9]. - The company is exploring new opportunities in Real World Assets (RWA) by launching a project in collaboration with Ant Group, focusing on financial services for renewable energy assets [9]. - Adjustments to revenue growth rates and expense ratios have led to revised earnings per share (EPS) forecasts of 0.46, 0.63, and 0.76 CNY for 2025-2027, down from previous estimates [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,727 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. However, a decline of 5.2% is expected in 2024 [5][12]. - The company anticipates a significant recovery in operating profit, with a forecast of 459 million CNY in 2025, representing a 226.3% increase from the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 45.0% by 2025, up from 40.7% in 2023, driven by changes in revenue structure [5][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of November 28, 2025, was 16.22 CNY, with a 52-week high of 27.64 CNY and a low of 9.91 CNY [6][10]. - The company has shown a relative performance of -0.83% over the past week and -36.99% over the past three months compared to the CSI 300 index [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that with policy support and continuous efforts from various brands, the penetration rate of smart glasses is expected to reach an upward turning point, benefiting eyewear companies first. Additionally, some specialized retail companies, as important channels for offline sales of smart glasses, are also expected to benefit [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the launch of the Quark AI glasses by Alibaba on November 27, featuring two series: S1 (with display) and G1 (without display), with prices starting at 3799 yuan and 1899 yuan respectively. The S1 model includes advanced features such as dual flagship chips and adjustable focal distance [8]. Market Dynamics - The pace of smart glasses brand releases is accelerating, with several major brands launching new products in 2023. For instance, Meta released three models at prices starting from $379, and Xiaomi introduced three models starting from 1999 yuan [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies specific investment targets within the eyewear sector, including Mingyue Lens (301101, Buy), and mentions other companies like Conant Optical (02276, Not Rated) and Doctor Glasses (300622, Not Rated) as potential beneficiaries of the smart glasses trend [3][8].

亨斯迈欧洲 MDI 装置意外停产，有望催动 MDI 价格反弹 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 景气度有望复苏的 PVC 相关企业包括：中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业 (600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)。 MDI 龙头：万华化学(600309，买入)。景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工 中相关标的包括：川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等。草酸 行业中，建议关注：华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新 材(301216，买入)。 风险提示 | 印度取消 BIS 认证及反倾销税，利好 PVC | 2025-11-23 | | --- | --- | | 等产品出口增长 | | | 化工景气修复与储能高增长预期持续，继 | 2025-11-16 | | 续看好 MDI、PVC、磷化工等子行业 | | | 看好储能需求预期提升下磷矿石景气上行 | 2025-11-13 | | 潜力 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表 ...

煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 产地动力煤中长期合同价格落地，关注行 业左侧布局机会 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251124-20251130） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）当前焦煤价格水平低于动力煤，部分焦煤股处于破净状态，且近期焦煤 价格持续下跌的背景下，焦煤股价跌幅较小，反映出市场对焦煤股的悲观预期已经较为 充分地反映在股价之中，建议关注焦煤板块左侧布局的机会；（2）产地动力煤中长期合 同价格落地，且产地价格水平高于港口价格水平，后续产地中长协机制有望减少产地煤 价的波动，相关标的：陕西煤业(601225，未评级)、中煤能源(601898，未评级)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 30 日 看好（维持） 蒋山 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn 0755-82819271 李晓渊 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn 021-6332 ...

主题策略 机械设备：发改委规范具身智能产业健康发展 风险提示 消费复苏不及预期、场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、以旧换新补贴政策持续性存在不确定性、关税扰 动反复。 市场策略 12 月开门红可期，震荡格局下先扬后抑 风格策略 风格大切换，中盘蓝筹再崛起 行业策略 家电：关注行业格局优化趋势 投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 12 月开门红可期，震荡格局下先扬后抑 朝闻道 20251201 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 反弹高度受限，调仓注重赔率：朝闻道 20251128 2025-11-27 反弹不改震荡格局，继续逢低布局：朝闻 道 20251126 2025-11-25 防守策略生效，布局窗口将现：朝闻道 20251124 2025-11-23 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 过去一周的企稳反弹，验证我们周初"布局窗口将现"的预判，但上证指数 5 日均 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 风格大切换，中盘蓝筹再崛起 策略周报 20251130 研究结论 ⚫ 核心观点：年末市场有望维持强势，但市场风格可能会出现较大切换，中盘蓝筹有 望再度崛起，投资机会在消费、周期和制造板块的中盘蓝筹。 投资机会在中等风险特征的股票，两条主线掘金中盘蓝筹：1)消费板块沉寂多年正 迎拐点。消费板块普遍股价超跌，供给收缩，股价有望上行。关注业绩出清的中型 白酒、餐饮供应链、零食饮料、家电、酒店、人力资源、美容护理等。2)周期板块 科技赋能叠加供给约束，定价重估进行时。关注 AI 需求拉动的新材料、战略小金属 (如锑、稀土)、工业金属(铜、铝)等供需格局改善的品种以及传统商品生猪和橡胶 等。3） 制造板块暂别"梦想叙事"，拥抱"现实兑现"。制造板块的投资需从纯 粹的"故事炒作"转向"订单和收入"的验证。关注不断有业绩验证预期的通信、电子、 电力设备和机械设备。 ⚫ 主题投资：依次关注人工智能、半导体、航天卫星、固态电池、上游涨价 人工智能：市场部分投资者对人工智能前景产生怀疑，我们认为市场对产业发展的 判断较为理性，每一次理性的思辨也让市场预期回归中性，投资者对产业发展空间 和斜率的预期有望随着 ...