波司登 03998.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 上半财年稳健增长，下半财年经营有望提 速 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们基本维持对公司的盈利预测，预计 FY26-28 年每股收益分别为 0.34、0.38 和 0.42 元。参考可比公司，维持 FY26 年 17 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 6.36 港币（1 人 民币=1.10 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示： 经济减速、天气波动、女装业务持续低于预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 23,214 | 25,902 | 28,515 | 31,438 | 34,759 | | 同比增长 (%) | 38.4% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,398 | 4,967 | 5,385 | 5,983 | 6,711 | | 同比增长 (%) | 55.6% | 12.9% | 8.4 ...

商业航天司成立，商业航天高质量安全发 展行动计划发布，有望进入快速发展阶段 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 看好（维持） | 罗楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 冯函 | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 鲍丙文 | 执业证书编号：S0860124070016 | | --- | --- | | | baobingwen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 亚太局势不确定性加剧，我国装备建设或 | | --- | | 将提速，关注新质战斗力 | | | --- | --- | | 无人僚机攻击-11 公开亮相，朱雀三号可回 | 2025-11-16 | | 收火箭即将首飞，关注新质 ...

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 夸克 AI 眼镜发布，看好公司进入 AI 眼镜赛道后的增长潜力与其与内部业务互相引 流赋能的入口潜力。我们维持预测公司 FY2026-2028 营业收入 10344/11570/12460 亿元，经调整净利润为 1093/1706/2027 亿元。我们采用分部估值法，维持上次估值 倍数与目标价 212.43 港元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：AI 眼镜业务进展不及预期，资本投入回报不及预期、AI 大模型技术进展不 及预期、行业竞争加剧、宏观经济不景气。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 941,168 | 996,347 | 1,034,373 | 1,157,017 | 1,246,033 | | 同比增长 (%) | 8.34% | 5.86% | 3.82% | 11.86% | 7.69% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 113,350 | 140,991 | 90,857 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 信用风险扩散可控 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应：固定 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | ...

可转债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 转债补跌幅度有限，交易情绪较弱 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期； 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应：固定 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 收益市场周观察 | | | 正股大幅下跌，转债明显惜售：可转债市 | 2025-11-25 | | 场周观察 | | | 关注永续品种定价偏离带来的机会：信用 | 2025-11-24 | | 债市场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 转债在估值不断积累过后上周开始补跌，百元溢价率显著回调，但并未回到 11 月中 旬均值水平。转债资产由于绝对价格和估值水平均过高因此配置意愿较弱，高位的 支撑来两方面，一是供给小于需求下的稀缺性溢价，二是权益市场强势环境带来的 支撑，两大因素未被彻底打破前转债估值依然坚挺。 ⚫ 我们认为，当前转债性价比已处于低位，估值过高叠加优质个 ...

罗莱生活 002293.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 增持（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年11月28日） | 9.53 元 | | 目标价格 | 11.34 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 10.05/6.69 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 83,384/82,658 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 7,947 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | | 基本面逐步改善 高分红预期有望延续 | 2025-09-11 | | --- | --- | | 分红超预期，经营表现逐步向好 | 2025-04-28 | | 经营短期承压，静待拐点到来 | 2024-11-01 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 2.03 | 1.38 | 15.62 | 17.3 | | 相对表现% | 0.39 | 4.9 | 14.21 | 0.41 | | 沪深 300% | ...

华润万象生活 01209.HK 公司研究 | 深度报告 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年11月27日） | 45.74 港元 | | 目标价格 | 52.55 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 46.54/25.22 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 228,250/228,250 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 104,402 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 房地产 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 4.24 | 8.39 | 23.81 | 64.71 | | 相对表现% | 3.81 | 10.24 | 20.86 | 32.35 | | 恒生指数% | 0.43 | -1.85 | 2.95 | 32.36 | | 赵旭翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | | --- | --- | | | zhaoxuxiang@orientse ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous and steel sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in these industries [9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that a cross-year market for gold and copper may unfold, making it an opportune time to invest in non-ferrous metals [9][10]. - It highlights that the copper supply shortage is expected to continue, which may drive up copper prices, while strict control over smelting capacity could lead to improved profitability for midstream players [9][10]. - The report also emphasizes the bullish outlook for gold prices, projecting a rise to $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [9][10]. - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, the report suggests that despite recent stock dilution, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain intact, presenting opportunities for investment [9][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report notes a 3.37% increase in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by a significant rise in copper prices due to supply constraints and inflation expectations [9][10]. - It highlights the historical high copper premium set by Codelco, which is expected to further tighten supply [9][10]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in copper, gold, and aluminum sectors [9][10]. Steel Industry - The report indicates a slight decrease in iron and steel production, with rebar consumption at 2.28 million tons, down 1.23% week-on-week but up 1.15% year-on-year [16][21]. - It mentions that overall steel inventory continues to decline, with total social and steel mill inventories down by 2.15% [23][24]. - The profitability of most steel products has significantly improved due to rising costs, with the average price index for common steel rising by 0.42% [26][35]. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [39][40]. - It also notes that the production of new energy vehicles continues to grow, with October 2025 production reaching 1.68 million units, up 19.94% year-on-year [43][46]. - The report highlights price increases in lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate priced at 93,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.27% week-on-week [49][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.94 CNY based on a 39x PE ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging AI across its business operations to enhance competitiveness and efficiency, particularly in virtual power plant operations and electricity trading [2][9]. - The company is exploring new opportunities in Real World Assets (RWA) by launching a project in collaboration with Ant Group, focusing on financial services for renewable energy assets [9]. - Adjustments to revenue growth rates and expense ratios have led to revised earnings per share (EPS) forecasts of 0.46, 0.63, and 0.76 CNY for 2025-2027, down from previous estimates [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,727 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. However, a decline of 5.2% is expected in 2024 [5][12]. - The company anticipates a significant recovery in operating profit, with a forecast of 459 million CNY in 2025, representing a 226.3% increase from the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 45.0% by 2025, up from 40.7% in 2023, driven by changes in revenue structure [5][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of November 28, 2025, was 16.22 CNY, with a 52-week high of 27.64 CNY and a low of 9.91 CNY [6][10]. - The company has shown a relative performance of -0.83% over the past week and -36.99% over the past three months compared to the CSI 300 index [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that with policy support and continuous efforts from various brands, the penetration rate of smart glasses is expected to reach an upward turning point, benefiting eyewear companies first. Additionally, some specialized retail companies, as important channels for offline sales of smart glasses, are also expected to benefit [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the launch of the Quark AI glasses by Alibaba on November 27, featuring two series: S1 (with display) and G1 (without display), with prices starting at 3799 yuan and 1899 yuan respectively. The S1 model includes advanced features such as dual flagship chips and adjustable focal distance [8]. Market Dynamics - The pace of smart glasses brand releases is accelerating, with several major brands launching new products in 2023. For instance, Meta released three models at prices starting from $379, and Xiaomi introduced three models starting from 1999 yuan [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies specific investment targets within the eyewear sector, including Mingyue Lens (301101, Buy), and mentions other companies like Conant Optical (02276, Not Rated) and Doctor Glasses (300622, Not Rated) as potential beneficiaries of the smart glasses trend [3][8].