盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2024-2026 年归母净利润 59.47、82.68、101.25 亿元，可比公司 25 年平均 PE 估值 21 倍，目标价 17.43 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 长安福特销量低于预期、长安马自达销量低于预期、长安自主品牌销量低于预期、行业 价格战影响盈利。 深蓝及阿维塔销量同比较高增长，新车即 将上市 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 121,253 | 151,298 | 174,823 | 194,292 | 213,009 | | 同比增长 (%) | 15.3% | 24.8% | 15.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 7,634 | 10,447 | 6,252 | 8,717 | 10,681 | | 同比增长 (%) | 104.6% | 36.9% | -40.2% | 39.4% | 22.5% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) ...

泰恩康 301263.SZ 公司研究 | 首次报告 拐点将至，CKBA 打开成长空间 ——泰恩康首次覆盖报告 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司核心业务或重要产品未来 1-2 年处于快速进展时期，我们预测公司 2024-2026 年每股收益分别为 0.26、0.39 和 0.62 元。根据可比公司 2025 年平均估值，给予公 司当年 54 倍市盈率，对应目标价 21.06 元，首次给予"增持"评级。 风险提示 研发进展不及预期风险；新产品放量低预期风险；市场竞争加剧风险；毛利率提升不及 预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 783 | 761 | 757 | 951 | 1,214 | | 同比增长 (%) | 19.9% | -2.9% | -0.5% | 25.7% | 27.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 209 | 191 | 147 | 216 | 340 | | 同比增长 (%) | 51.0% | -8 ...

吉比特 603444.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月08日） | 204.8 元 | | 目标价格 | 207.90 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 265.93/148.25 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 7,204/7,204 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 14,754 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -9.3 | -10.18 | -0.24 | 18.78 | | 相对表现% | -3.21 | -2.74 | 3.41 | 15.55 | | 沪深 300% | -6.09 | -7.44 | -3.65 | 3.23 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | 李雨琪 | xiangwenqian@orientsec. ...

公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 39,111 | 40,033 | 42,417 | 44,281 | 46,777 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.2% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,831 | 5,712 | 6,050 | 6,653 | 7,328 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.3% | 18.2% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 4,094 | 4,749 | 5,103 | 5,594 | 6,140 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.4% | 16.0% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | | 每股收益（元） | 2.29 | 2.66 | 2.86 | 3.14 | 3.44 | | 毛利率(%) | 26.5% | 27.9% | 28.9% | 29.4% | 29.8% | | ...

业绩强劲增长，业务结构优化 ——云南白药 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到公司提质增效的效果显著，我们下调销售费用率预期，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 2.86、3.14、3.44 元（原预测值 2025-2026 年每股收益分别为 2.81/3.11 元），参考可比公司平均市盈率，我们给予公司 2025 年 22 倍 PE 估值， 对应目标价 62.92 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 药品销售不达预期、创新药研发不达预期等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 39,111 | 40,033 | 42,417 | 44,281 | 46,777 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.2% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,831 | 5,712 | 6,050 | 6,653 | 7,328 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.3 ...

ADWM：基于门控机制的自适应动态因子 加权模型 ——因子选股系列之一一二 研究结论 自适应动态因子加权模型 金融工程 | 专题报告 为了克服市场状态市场风格发生突变时，短周期加权模型很有可能学习到错误的规律从 而造成巨大的回撤，我们设计了一套端到端因子生成和因子加权模型。该模型通过学习 市场上长期历史数据既捕捉 alpha 信息，又根据市场状态和个股属性信息学习 alpha 因子 的时变规律来对 alpha 因子进行加权，该模型框架由两部分组成： 各模型因子对比 根据输入的不同和加权方式的不同，我们提出了五个模型并进行对比，得到以下结论： 因子在各宽基指数上表现 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080003 | ABCM：基于神经网络的alpha因子和beta 因子协同挖掘模型：——因子选股系列之 一一〇 2024- ...

美团-W 03690.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 美团 24Q4 点评：核心主业好于预期，海 外加大投入 核心观点 1）外卖：单量高个位数增长，单均 OP 同比提升。运营端，我们测算 24Q4 外卖订 单同增高个位数。需求侧，"省"的用户心智进一步强化。供给侧，拼好饭激发更 多消费需求并提高了用户消费频次，品牌卫星店帮助品牌餐饮商家有效实现低成本 扩张，以及神抢手更好满足消费者对品质外卖需求。收入端，宏观因素影响下 24Q4AOV 同比下降、但跌幅环比有所收窄，配送收入、广告变现效率提升，一定 程度上抵消 AOV 下滑对收入的不利影响。利润端，我们判断拼好饭单量占比提升， 低价订单 UE 持续改善，以及货币化率提升，综合作用下单均 OP 同比继续改善、 环比有所下降。展望，宏观经济持续对外卖单量和 AOV 造成影响，同时外卖商户对 营销 ROI 转化效率的看重或使得部分线下预算转投线上渠道，带来广告收入增长的 结构性机会。此外，骑手社保方面，将在二季度开始试点社保方案，持续关注公司 运营提效对相关成本的抵消影响。 2）闪购：全年实现盈利。运营端，我们测算 24Q4 闪购订单同增约 25%。需求 侧，即时零售 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 178.12 HKD [5][12]. Core Insights - The overall performance of Meituan in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 885 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20% [9]. - The core local business showed resilience, with revenue of 656 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 19% year-on-year [9]. - New business segments, particularly in overseas markets, are seeing positive developments with a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections Delivery Business - In Q4 2024, the delivery orders grew in the high single digits, with an improvement in average order profit year-on-year. The average order value (AOV) decreased year-on-year but the decline was less severe compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The operational efficiency is expected to improve with the trial of social security plans for delivery riders starting in Q2 [2]. Flash Purchase - The flash purchase segment achieved profitability in 2024, with a 25% year-on-year increase in orders. The growth is driven by increased convenience in instant retail and expansion in lower-tier markets [3]. In-store and Travel - The in-store and travel segment saw over 65% year-on-year growth in order volume in 2024, with record highs in annual transaction users and active merchants [4]. - The revenue growth slightly outpaced the gross transaction value (GTV) growth, indicating effective marketing strategies [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.99%. The adjusted net profit is expected to reach 35.81 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [12][14]. - The company’s valuation is estimated at 10,882 billion HKD, with specific valuations for different segments: 3.5x PS for delivery, 13.2x PE for in-store and travel, and 0.6x P/GMV for new businesses [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [5] Core Views - Geely's March sales showed significant growth, with total sales reaching 232,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 119,700 units, up 167.2% year-on-year [7] - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.55 HKD based on a PE ratio of 15 times [2] - The report highlights the launch of new models and the advancement in intelligent driving technology, which are expected to enhance sales performance [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million RMB in 2023 to 414,141 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [4] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 3,806 million RMB in 2023 to 17,395 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 23.3% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,308 million RMB in 2023 to 18,526 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 213.3% in 2024 [4] Sales Performance - Geely's brand sales in March reached 191,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, with the Galaxy series achieving a remarkable 290.3% growth [7] - The report indicates that Geely's sales growth is expected to outperform the industry average, which saw a 10% increase in March [7] Model Launches and Innovations - The report details the launch of several new models, including the Galaxy series and the Zeekr brand, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2025 [7] - The introduction of the L3 level intelligent driving technology is highlighted as a strategic move to enhance Geely's competitive edge in the market [7]

力诺药包 301188.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 股价（2025年04月08日） 16.31 元 目标价格 18.60 元 52 周最高价/最低价 19.28/10.78 元 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） 23,245/23,245 A 股市值（百万元） 3,791 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 09 日 买入 （维持） | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -10.33 | -2.68 | 7.09 | -2.3 | | 相对表现 | -4.24 | 4.76 | 10.74 | -5.53 | | 沪深 300 | -6.09 | -7.44 | -3.65 | 3.23 | 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 股权激励指引方向，持续回购增强信心 ——力诺药包动态更新 核心观点 力诺药包动态跟踪 —— 股权激励指引方向，持续回购增强信心 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整公司 2024-2026 ...