Market Strategy - The market is expected to remain in a volatile state, with a focus on defensive strategies and opportunities for low-cost positioning [2][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index is holding above 3900 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext are at the lower end of the fluctuation range since September [8] - The technology sector, particularly the STAR 50 index, has fallen below its fluctuation range, indicating a weak market sentiment [8] Industry Strategy - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to undergo a valuation recovery followed by performance-driven growth, with a focus on gradual positioning [3][8] - The sector has seen a significant improvement in capital returns, particularly in non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, machinery, and some consumer goods [8] - The consumer staples sector is showing signs of performance improvement, with expectations for a performance bottom in 2026 [8] Thematic Strategy - The non-ferrous metals sector is gaining a "growth" attribute due to financial characteristics and AI demand, enhancing its appeal [4][8] - Precious metals are becoming increasingly attractive as global central banks diversify reserves amid rising U.S. fiscal deficits and weakening dollar credit [8] - Industrial metals are benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and increased demand from AI and new energy sectors [8] - New demand drivers in small metals, particularly lithium, are expected to lead to a cyclical reversal [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is transitioning from "single functional consumption" to "composite efficacy + emotional consumption," indicating enhanced consumer resilience [4] - The beauty industry is no longer reliant on a single traffic window, with narratives around channel efficiency strengthening [4] - Leading brands exhibit stronger resilience, with a positive outlook on companies with robust brand assets that can capitalize on channel and product cycles [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Double 11 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [8] - Beauty and personal care sales reached 991 billion yuan, growing by 11.65% [8] - Instant retail sales surged to 670 billion yuan, marking a remarkable growth of 138.4% [8] Market Dynamics - Tmall leads in high-end beauty sales, while Douyin is becoming a significant platform for domestic brands [8] - The top five beauty brands on Tmall include Proya, Estée Lauder, Lancôme, L'Oréal, and SkinCeuticals, with Proya maintaining the top position for three consecutive years [8] - Douyin's beauty sales rankings show Han Shu at the top, followed by Proya and L'Oréal [8] Company Performance - Leading brands like Up Beauty, Ruo Yu Chen, and Mao Ge Ping have shown impressive performance during the Double 11 event [8] - Up Beauty's sales increased by 145% year-on-year, with significant growth on both Tmall and Douyin [8] - Ruo Yu Chen's sales saw a staggering 35-fold increase year-on-year, with Douyin sales growing by over 100% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company's profitability continues to improve, with exports expected to become a new growth driver [2] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.68, 2.04, and 2.40 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.44 RMB and 24.62 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 11 times for comparable companies in 2026 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 179,204 in 2023 to 448,685 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5] - Operating profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 3,806 in 2023 to 23,173 in 2027, with significant growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is forecasted to rise from 5,308 in 2023 to 24,318 in 2027, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, 2.5%, 20.9%, and 18.0% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 5.3% [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to maintain a strong market share, with sales growth outpacing the industry average, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [10] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with exports anticipated to become a significant source of revenue and profit growth [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and lowers the target price to 48.79 CNY from the previous 51.85 CNY [3][5] Core Views - The company is expected to face temporary pressure on its core products in 2025, with external demand likely remaining at a low point in 2026. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.29 CNY, 2.32 CNY, and 2.77 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 3.70 CNY and 4.40 CNY for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The report highlights that external demand is expected to improve sequentially, indicating a potential bottoming out of performance. The company maintains a competitive advantage during the adjustment period, with its products performing better than the market average [10] - The report emphasizes the company's focus on core products and its competitive advantages, suggesting that as the demand stabilizes, the company could see a recovery in growth driven by market share gains [10] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025 is 10,289 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.9%. The revenue is expected to recover to 11,584 million CNY by 2027, with a growth rate of 12.5% [8] - The gross margin is projected to be 75.0% in 2025, slightly improving to 76.7% by 2027. The net profit margin is expected to be 27.8% in 2025, increasing to 29.8% by 2027 [8] - The report provides a comparison of the company's valuation metrics with peers, indicating a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21X based on the 2026 EPS [12]

Market Strategy - The current market is expected to experience limited index growth, with a judgment of "fluctuating up and down, sideways consolidation, slightly strengthening" [7] - Mid-cap blue chips are anticipated to rise again after four years, presenting investment opportunities in manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [7] - Related ETFs include 中证 500ETF (159922) and 中证 1000ETF (512100) [7] Chemical Industry - Global chemical supply is expected to contract due to high costs and aging equipment, leading to a structural adjustment in the supply chain [7] - European chemical sales account for approximately 13% of the global market, but high energy costs and punitive carbon taxes are causing continued capacity exit [7] - Domestic production progress has slowed, and with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the chemical sector is likely to enter a new prosperity cycle [7] - Related stock: 万华化学 (600309, Buy) [7] - Related ETF: 化工 ETF (159870/516020) [7] Financial Technology - Hong Kong's "FinTech 2030" strategy marks a shift from application-focused development to a more systemic, forward-looking, and ecological approach [7] - This strategy emphasizes the collaborative development of data, AI, resilience, and tokenization, providing valuable insights for the high-quality development of mainland financial technology [7] - Related ETFs include 金融科技 ETF (159851/515720/159103) and 香港证券 ETF (513090) [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - The report anticipates sustained growth in gaming and advertising revenues, driven by key titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Little People’s Country" contributing to revenue growth in 2026 [3][9] - The estimated IFRS net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at 226 billion, 261 billion, and 297 billion RMB respectively, reflecting adjustments based on updated assumptions for gaming, advertising, and payment services [3][9] - A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method is used, resulting in a target price of 664.22 HKD [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 609,015 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9.82% [4] - The operating profit for 2023 was 152,784 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 52.76% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 115,216 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 38.79% year-on-year [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is reported at 12.60 RMB [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 48.13% in 2023 to 57.90% by 2027 [4] Revenue Breakdown - The report highlights that the revenue from value-added services reached 959 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [9] - Gaming revenue for Q3 2025 was 636 billion RMB, marking a 23% increase year-on-year [9] - Marketing services revenue for Q3 2025 was 362 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2% [9] Future Projections - The report projects a revenue increase to 754,344 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.25% [4] - The operating profit is expected to reach 247,023 million RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 23.45% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 225,981 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth of 16.44% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current strategy for credit bonds is to focus on coupon hunting, which is superior to the duration strategy. The main areas for exploration include medium - and low - quality urban investment bonds and some entities with a large convexity in the yield curve [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - The bond market was dull last week, lacking a trading theme. Credit bonds showed a hesitant performance, and the previous downward trend in yields paused. Looking ahead, positive factors for credit bonds include the concentrated opening period of amortized - cost - based open - end bond funds, stable liquidity, and the approaching time for year - end allocation to build coupon positions for the next year. Negative factors include the halt of the rapid decline in yields, a continuous drop in turnover rate, the uncertainty of the public - offering fee regulation, and potential disturbances from the stock market [5][8]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no cases of bond defaults and overdue, no enterprises with their main ratings or outlooks downgraded, and no bonds with their debt ratings lowered from November 10 to November 16, 2025. However, several companies had significant negative events, such as Shaanxi Tourism Group Co., Ltd. receiving a warning from the inter - bank market, and many companies facing issues like debt defaults, regulatory warnings, and restrictions on high - consumption of their legal representatives [11][12]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - Issuance volume remained high, but the maturity volume increased significantly, leading to a reduction in net financing. From November 10 to November 16, credit bond primary issuance was 269.9 billion yuan, a 7% decrease from the previous period. The total repayment amount rose to 238.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net inflow of 31.4 billion yuan. The cost of primary issuance continued to narrow slightly, with the AA + level showing a more significant reduction. The average coupon rates for AAA and AA + were 2.10% and 2.15% respectively, with the former increasing by 1bp and the latter decreasing by 11bp [12][13]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - The valuations of credit bonds with various ratings and tenors fluctuated within a narrow range. Only low - grade and long - term bonds showed a slight narrowing. Credit spreads remained flat in the short term and widened passively in the medium - and long - term. The turnover rate continued to decline, dropping 0.18 percentage points to 1.69%. The spreads of most industries widened by 1bp, while the real - estate industry's spreads narrowed by 2bp. Among real - estate enterprises, the spreads of Times Holdings, Rongqiao, Vanke, and Yuzhou Hongtu widened the most [5][17][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 89.79 CNY based on a 73x PE for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous high growth in performance, with a significant potential in overseas markets. The revenue for the first three quarters reached 5.148 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.34%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 229 million CNY, up 50.72% [2][9]. - The company is focusing on building an intelligent platform that integrates AI technologies across various terminal scenarios, which positions it well for future growth in smart devices [9]. - The global expansion strategy is yielding results, with revenue from overseas markets growing by 81.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating successful international collaboration and market penetration [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects revenues of 5.242 billion CNY in 2023, increasing to 8.518 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% [5][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 466 million CNY in 2023 to 665 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a steady increase [5][10]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 36.9% in 2023 to 32.9% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 7.0% to 7.8% during the same period [5][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.01 CNY in 2023 to 1.44 CNY in 2027, indicating positive growth in shareholder value [5][10].

Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a "fluctuating" state with both upward and downward movements, characterized by a slight strengthening trend [3][7] - The current market environment is stable, with external and internal factors not being the core of short-term trading; instead, the characteristics of the market are driven by style and trading dynamics [7] Industry Strategy - The pig farming industry is likely to see a market-driven capacity reduction due to current weak prices and policy support, with live pig prices dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaned piglet prices around 200 yuan/head, indicating a phase of overall industry losses [4][7] - Historical trends suggest that when pig prices are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could lead to long-term price increases for pigs [7] Thematic Strategy - The retail sector is anticipated to benefit from the extended Spring Festival in 2026, which is expected to boost seasonal consumption, particularly in offline department stores and supermarkets [5][7] - Cities with unique tourism resources, such as Urumqi, Chongqing, Changsha, Fuzhou, and Shenyang, are expected to attract significant tourist traffic, further enhancing local retail consumption [7]

Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a "fluctuating" state with both upward and downward movements, characterized by a slight strengthening trend [3][7] - The current market environment is stable, with external and internal factors not being the core of short-term trading; instead, the characteristics of the market are driven by style and trading dynamics [7] Industry Strategy - The pig farming industry is likely to undergo a capacity reduction due to current weak prices and policy-driven factors, with the price of fat pigs dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaned piglets around 200 yuan/head, indicating a phase of overall losses in the industry [7] - Historical trends suggest that when both fat pig and piglet prices are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases for pigs [7] Thematic Strategy - The retail sector is anticipated to benefit from the extended Spring Festival in 2026, which is expected to boost seasonal consumption, particularly in offline department stores and supermarkets [7] - Cities with unique tourism resources, such as Urumqi, Chongqing, Changsha, Fuzhou, and Shenyang, are expected to attract a significant number of tourists, further enhancing local retail consumption [7]