Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records in 2026 [12] - Zinc is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the potential for precious metals to lead industrial metals in price increases, driven by a breakdown in the gold-silver ratio and a late-stage long-term debt cycle [7][12] - Specific investment opportunities include companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and others in the precious metals sector [7] Zinc Sector - The report identifies zinc as a critical material in the context of re-industrialization, with supply constraints and increasing demand expected to drive prices higher [13] Aluminum Sector - The report highlights the competitive advantages of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, which is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and supply chain security [13] Steel Sector - The steel industry is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low period before the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production and consumption metrics indicate a slight increase in iron output but a decrease in rebar demand, reflecting a mixed outlook for the sector [19][26] New Energy Metals - The report notes significant increases in lithium and cobalt prices, with production metrics showing substantial year-on-year growth in lithium carbonate output [37][46] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures indicating continued growth in the sector [41] Industrial Metals - The report discusses the overall upward trend in industrial metal prices, driven by political policy risks and supply reduction expectations [56] - Specific metrics indicate rising copper production and declining refining fees, suggesting a tightening supply environment [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Insights - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records [12] - Zinc is identified as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of precious metals in preserving wealth amid a declining trust in fiat currencies, recommending active investment in this sector [12] Zinc Sector - The report suggests that zinc, as a fundamental material for de-globalization, will see increased demand driven by infrastructure needs in emerging markets, despite current market skepticism [13] Aluminum Sector - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China is expected to benefit from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with a positive outlook for profitability and valuation [13] Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [19] New Energy Metals - Lithium and carbonate prices have shown significant increases, with production levels rising sharply, indicating strong demand in the new energy vehicle sector [37][41] - The report notes a substantial increase in the production of lithium carbonate and hydroxide, reflecting the growing demand for electric vehicles [37] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that political risks and supply constraints are contributing to an overall increase in industrial metal prices, with copper production expected to rise despite declining refining fees [56][57]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a "structural" investment strategy, focusing on mid-cap blue-chip stocks amidst ongoing market fluctuations. The expectation of a slow bull market reinforces this approach [4][8]. - The chemical sector, particularly PVC, is highlighted for its potential value re-evaluation due to supply constraints during China's carbon peak period. The demand from developing regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America is expected to drive this sector [4][8]. - The report discusses Tesla's advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, which may influence domestic automakers to adopt software payment models, potentially transforming the automotive industry [4][8]. Market Strategy - The market is currently experiencing a high-level consolidation phase, with expectations of reduced trading activity as the Chinese New Year approaches. The report suggests maintaining a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks [4][8]. - The report identifies specific ETFs related to mid-cap blue-chip stocks and the chemical sector, indicating a strategic investment direction [4][8]. Industry Strategy - The PVC industry is noted for its high energy consumption and carbon emissions, which may lead to stricter supply controls. This could create a significant supply-demand imbalance, driving up the value of PVC [4][8]. - The report suggests that the strong energy infrastructure in China makes it difficult for other countries to replicate the production of energy-intensive products like PVC, further emphasizing the industry's unique position [4][8]. Theme Strategy - Tesla's push for FSD subscription services is expected to enhance its revenue streams and set a precedent for other automakers to follow suit in software monetization [4][8]. - The report recommends monitoring companies involved in intelligent driving and the broader automotive supply chain as this trend develops [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the utility sector [8] Core Views - The growth rate of electricity generation is marginally declining, with a narrowing decrease in thermal power generation. In December 2025, the electricity generation of large-scale power plants increased by 0.1% year-on-year, a recovery from a decline of 2.6 percentage points in November 2025, primarily affected by temperature factors [8][12] - Fund holdings in the utility sector have increased, with a focus on thermal power companies. As of the end of Q4 2025, the utility sector accounted for 1.25% of the total fund equity investment market value, up by 0.10 percentage points from the previous quarter [11] - The performance expectations for the utility sector have reached a low point, making low-priced utility assets worth considering. The report indicates that the utility sector's long-term dividend assets remain attractive for allocation [8][11] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for various power sources were as follows: wind power +8.9%, solar power +18.2%, hydropower +4.1%, and nuclear power +3.1%. The decrease in thermal power was -3.2% [8][12][18] Fund Holdings - Fund holdings in the utility sector have increased, with significant increases in holdings of Huaneng International (+1.1%), Waneng Power (+0.9%), and Jiantou Energy (+0.9%) [11][12] Market Performance - The utility sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a 2.3% increase compared to a 0.6% decrease in the index during the week of January 19-23, 2026 [47][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on thermal power companies such as Jiantou Energy, Huaneng International, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guangxi Power [8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. In the past week, the negative feedback for copper and aluminum has significantly weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The report lists several investment targets, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) [4]. 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing intense liquidity trading, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the market expects limited upward pressure on precious metals in the short term due to anticipated interest rate stabilization [14][30]. 4. Copper - The report highlights renewed support for copper prices due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with recent strikes in Chile affecting copper concentrate availability [17][70]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates a reduction in negative feedback for aluminum, with demand showing marginal recovery. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate has risen by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][83].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the utility sector [8] Core Views - The growth rate of electricity generation is marginally declining, with a narrowing decrease in thermal power generation. In December 2025, the electricity generation of large-scale power plants increased by 0.1% year-on-year, a 2.6 percentage point improvement from November 2025, primarily affected by temperature factors [8][12] - Fund holdings in the utility sector have increased, with a focus on thermal power companies. As of the end of Q4 2025, the utility sector accounted for 1.25% of total fund equity investment, up by 0.10 percentage points from the previous quarter [11] - The performance expectations for the utility sector have reached a low point, making low-priced utility assets worth considering. The report indicates that the utility sector is still a quality dividend asset worth long-term allocation [8][11] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for various power sources were as follows: wind power +8.9%, solar power +18.2%, hydropower +4.1%, and nuclear power +3.1%. The decrease in thermal power generation was -3.2% [8][12][18] Fund Holdings - Fund holdings in the utility sector have increased, with the most significant increases in companies like Huaneng International (+1.1%), Anhui Energy (+0.9%), and Jintou Energy (+0.9%) [11][39] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the average market clearing price for electricity in Guangdong increased by 4.5% year-on-year, while in Shanxi, it rose by 18.2% year-on-year [25][27] - Coal prices have weakened, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 685 CNY/ton, down 1.4% week-on-week [29][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on thermal power companies such as Jintou Energy, Huaneng International, Huadian International, Guodian Power, and Anhui Energy for potential investment opportunities [8][11] - For hydropower, it suggests investing in quality large hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guangxi Power [8] - For nuclear power, it recommends China General Nuclear Power as a long-term growth opportunity [8] - In the wind and solar sectors, it suggests waiting for the industry profit bottom to turn, with a focus on companies with a high proportion of wind power [8]

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡依旧，结构为王 朝闻道 20260126 市场策略 震荡依旧，结构为王 风格策略 方向还在中盘蓝筹 行业策略 化工：持续看好 PVC 价值重估 主题策略 智能汽车：特斯拉推动 FSD 付费升级，关注智驾 风险提示 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动；车企价格战压力。 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 慢牛预期强化，把握中盘蓝筹：朝闻道 20260123 2026-01-21 指数维持震荡，方向还在中盘蓝筹：朝闻 道 20260121 2026-01-20 指数震荡整固，优化持仓结构：朝闻道 20260119 2026-01-17 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 26 日 ⚫ 特斯拉积极推进 FSD 付费升级，有望带动国内车企向软件付费逐步转型。马斯克在 社交媒体表示，FSD 监督版的订阅价格将随着 FSD 能力的提高而上 ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 流动性预期升级，白热化交易延续 有色及贵金属周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：流动性预期升级，白热化交易延续。近期市场的乐观降息预期再度发酵，推 动贵金属、工业金属再度突破。近一周铜铝负反馈明显减弱，高价情况下现实端的改善 或能看到，总体而言，内外政策托底预期下，工业品看涨大方向不变。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 25 日 看好维持 | 上行趋势不改，价格加速走强：——钴锂 | 2026-01-24 | | --- | --- | | 金属行业周报 | | | 流动性预期回摆，无碍长多逻辑延续：— | 2026-01- ...

煤炭行业边际利多因素正在逐渐累积 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20260119-20260125） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：煤炭长期基本面预期改善，关注板块配置价值。尽管市场仍对煤炭行业 3-5 月 的季节性淡季价格走势有一定担忧，但考虑到国内产能有望核减、进口煤数量有望收 缩，我们认为煤炭板块底部大周期的底部已基本探明，后续有望开启长周期向上的行 情，建议逢低配置煤炭板块。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 25 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 煤企积极推动整合重组，煤炭行业从规模 | 20 ...

煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 煤炭行业边际利多因素正在逐渐累积 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：煤炭长期基本面预期改善，关注板块配置价值。尽管市场仍对煤炭行业 3-5 月 的季节性淡季价格走势有一定担忧，但考虑到国内产能有望核减、进口煤数量有望收 缩，我们认为煤炭板块底部大周期的底部已基本探明，后续有望开启长周期向上的行 情，建议逢低配置煤炭板块。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 25 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20260119-20260125） | 煤企积极推动整合重组，煤炭行业从规模 | 20 ...