主品牌短期减速 中期看好公司多品牌国际 化的竞争力 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司公告的四季度运营数据以及运动服饰消费行业目前的形势，我们调整公司 盈利预测，同时结合公司股本变动，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.71、5.09 和 5.70 元（原预测为 4.69、5.29 和 6.02 元）。参考可比公司，给予 2026 年 20 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 113.00 港币（1 人民币=1.11 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 安踏体育 02020.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2026年01月20日） | 82.55 港元 | | 目标价格 | 113 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 104.77/71.58 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 279,665/279,665 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 230,864 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | | | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 ...

| 薛宏伟 | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | --- | --- | | | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 蒯剑 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 海康威视 002415.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2026年01月20日） | 31.14 元 | | 目标价格 | 47.52 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 34.78/26.09 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 916,487/904,643 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 285,394 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 电子 | | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

海康威视 002415.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2026年01月20日） | 31.14 元 | | 目标价格 | 47.52 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 34.78/26.09 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 916,487/904,643 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 285,394 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 电子 | | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.87 | 6.68 | -3.77 | 14.2 | | 相对表现% | 1.76 | 3.38 | -7.75 | -9.02 | | 沪深 300% | -0.89 | 3.3 | 3.98 | 23.22 | | 薛宏伟 | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | --- | --- | | | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn ...

Market Strategy - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips as the direction for investment [2][6] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a long-term upward trend anticipated. A shift away from high-risk preferences is seen as beneficial for a healthy market recovery [2][6] Industry Strategy: Coal - The coal industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [3][6] - Recent developments include the strategic merger of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group, indicating significant progress in industry consolidation [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released guidelines for the clean and efficient use of coal, emphasizing systematic and refined regulation [6] - Policies aimed at replacing outdated capacity with advanced production capacity signal a shift towards technological and institutional innovation in the energy sector [6] Industry Strategy: Real Estate - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more about their intensity rather than quantity, with expectations for impactful measures such as interest rate cuts and direct financial support for households and enterprises [4][6] - Recent publications have reinforced the signals for stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, suggesting a stronger policy combination may emerge in 2026 [4][6]

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 从份额向回报，行业预期正迎来重构 化工行业的心动时刻 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 我们看好化工行业在多重因素引导下，企业经营策略出现集体转向，带来的景气度 修复。从其中优选机会，我们相对看好两个维度：一是行业份额占比大、话语权 高、有较大转变动力的龙头企业；二是具有较大竞争优势、经营策略转变后盈利情 况提升较显著的龙头企业。综上我们主要看好五个方向： MDI、石化、磷化工、 PVC 和聚酯瓶片。MDI 包括万华化学(600309，买入)；石化包括中国石化 (600028，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买入)、恒力石化(600346，买入)；磷化工包 括川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)、兴发集团(600141，买 入)；PVC 包括中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业(600075，未评级)、氯碱化工 (600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)；聚酯瓶片包括万凯新材(301216， 买入)。 风险提示 ⚫ 宏观经济形势变化；新兴国家发展形势变化；产能统计遗误；假设条件变化影响测 算结果。 | 看好（维持） | 国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market remains strong this week, with only a significant correction on Tuesday. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is still strong, and the convertible bond ETF has continued to see net inflows since New Year's Day. New bonds are generally priced high recently. In the context of the equity bull - market expectation, significant pullbacks in convertible bonds are unlikely, but the future upward trend space is limited. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities, and pay attention to sub - new bonds and those whose issuers have waived the right to early redemption. Convertible bond valuations may have a slight correction under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during the adjustment [7][10]. - At the beginning of this week, the market continued its strong upward trend, with both the technology and cyclical sectors strengthening. The total market turnover approached 4 trillion yuan. There was a significant divergence in previous popular sectors, with the commercial space sector correcting sharply. After the regulatory authorities increased the margin for margin financing, the market cooled down, and the balance of margin trading and the daily turnover of the entire A - share market decreased significantly. The regulatory authorities further defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the market trend will shift from the technology + dividend sectors to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Strengthened Expectations of a Slow Bull Market, Seize Structural Opportunities - The convertible bond market is strong, with a slight correction in the hundred - yuan premium rate, but it remains at a very high level. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is strong, with continuous net inflows into convertible bond ETFs since New Year's Day and high pricing of new bonds. In the equity bull - market expectation, there will be no significant pullbacks in convertible bonds, but the upward space is limited. Structural opportunities should be focused on, and sub - new bonds and those with waived early redemption rights can be emphasized. Convertible bond valuations may correct slightly under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during adjustments [10]. - The market was strong at the beginning of the week, with technology and cyclical sectors rising. The total turnover approached 4 trillion yuan, and there was a divergence in popular sectors. After regulatory measures, the market cooled down. The regulatory authorities defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. The upward logic remains unchanged in the long - term, and the market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, shifting to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [11]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Record - High Trading Volume, Slight Decline in Valuations 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Higher, Trading Volume Increased - The equity market rose with increased volume and then declined this week. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed strongly. The Kechuang 50 index rose 2.58%, the CSI 500 index rose 2.18%, the Beizheng 50 index rose 1.58%, the CSI 1000 index rose 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.00%, the CSI 2000 index rose 0.94%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.57%, and the SSE 50 index fell 1.74%. In terms of industries, the computer, electronics, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors declined. The average daily trading volume increased significantly by 616.623 billion yuan to 3.46 trillion yuan. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Jin 05 Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Jiamei Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [15]. 3.2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, High - Price and Low - Rating Convertible Bonds Performed Well - Convertible bonds rose significantly this week. The hundred - yuan premium rate declined slightly but remained at an absolute high. The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 101.923 billion yuan, peaking at 109.860 billion yuan on Wednesday and then falling below 100 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the median conversion price increased 0.9% to 106.0 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate increased 0.8% to 33.1%. In terms of style, high - price and low - rating convertible bonds continued to lead the gains, while high - rating and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [22].

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 指数维持震荡，方向还在中盘蓝筹 朝闻道 20260121 市场策略 指数维持震荡 风格策略 方向还在中盘蓝筹 行业策略 煤炭：业从规模扩张转向质量提升 主题策略 房地产：稳预期信号增强 风险提示 煤炭价格大幅上涨，市地产逆周期政策不及预期。销售大幅下滑。房企信用风险加剧。 扰动已现震荡归，中盘蓝筹周期巍：朝闻 道 20260116 2026-01-15 警惕指数遇扰动，关注"AI+"低位补涨： 朝闻道 20260112 2026-01-10 非银助力开门红，缓涨更健康：朝闻道 20260107 2026-01-07 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 指数触及波动区后持续震荡调整，前期的热门主题亦仍在持续调整。站在当下，我 们认为短期市场仍将震荡整固，中长期上行趋势仍在。高风险偏好风格的消退更利 于长牛、慢牛、健康牛的运行。进攻的方向聚焦在风险度在中间的中盘蓝筹。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：恒生 ETF(159271) ⚫ 本周中盘蓝筹定盘星的化工板块接力穿越大盘调整，煤电油续力中盘蓝 ...

核心观点 ⚫ 我们认为房地产政策的数量不重要，重要的是政策的力度。目前看来，两类政策会 有作用：一是降息、贴息类影响购房资金成本的政策；二是收储、拆迁、以及救助 负债的企业和居民主体等直接投放大量资金的政策。近期《求是》陆续刊文聚焦房 地产和城市更新，稳预期信号持续强化，有理由期待在 2026年看到更有力度的政策 组合。 ⚫ 具体事件评述： 1） 《求是》开年陆续于文聚焦房地产和城市更新，稳预期信号持续强化。 稳预期信号增强 1 月 1 日，《求是》刊文《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》。文章强调房地产的金融属 性、在国民经济和居民财富中的重要地位，以及预期管理对稳定房市的关键作用。 明确否定"添油战术"，传递出政策将从"渐进试探"转向"精准发力、一次性到 位"的核心导向，显著提升未来政策力度和效果的预期，有望促成政策深化与预期 强化的良性互动，有助于扭转市场信心，市场正向反馈持续性显著提升。 1 月 16 日出版的《求是》发表习近平总书记重要文章《在中央城市工作会议上的讲 话》。部署城市工作 7 个方面的重点任务中，"着力建设舒适便利的宜居城市"要求 加快构建房地产发展新模式，更好满足群众刚性和多样化改善性住房需 ...

资产配置 | 定期报告 风偏继续向中间集中 20260119 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | --- | --- | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配置周报 | | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 供强需弱依然明显，内需有待更多支撑 Q4 经济数据点评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ "反内卷"下部分行业格局快速变化导致就业压力的风险。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 政策和科技资仍是融资需求主线：12 月金 融数据点评 2026-01- ...