Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following the Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels[12] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, which may lead to short-term pressure on previously leading currencies and markets like Europe and Japan[21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US economy shows resilience, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[31] - Inflation expectations have been revised upwards, with PCE inflation projected at 3.0% for 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[31] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the June meeting, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year[28] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, have contributed to market volatility and risk premiums in oil prices, with a $10 premium observed in crude oil prices[12] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, impacting risk appetite and commodity prices, necessitating close monitoring of developments[39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (维持) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the development of the electricity market, which brings new opportunities for the electricity system [3] - The transition from passive reliance on natural conditions to active participation in market operations is a core variable for optimizing economic efficiency in the industry [8] - The report highlights the importance of electricity market trading capabilities, especially in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, where new projects will rely heavily on market transactions [8] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Electricity Market Development**: The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the electricity market, driven by reforms that enhance market participation and efficiency [3][8] - **New Energy Projects**: New energy projects in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are expected to shift from subsidy-dependent models to market-driven mechanisms, with specific pricing structures outlined for different project types [8] - **Software and Hardware Opportunities**: The report suggests focusing on companies involved in software applications for electricity trading and hardware that supports market transactions, recommending specific companies for investment [8] - **Active Value Creation**: The shift from passive to active value creation in the new energy sector is expected to unlock significant investment opportunities, with several companies identified as potential beneficiaries [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.28 CNY, based on a 48x PE for 2025 [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve small batch production and delivery of various aircraft landing gear in 2025, indicating a significant expansion in the landing gear market [6]. - The military demand is anticipated to recover, while the civil aviation brake market presents substantial domestic replacement opportunities due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [6]. - The company has established a dedicated team to improve accounts receivable collection, which is expected to enhance profitability [6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to decline to 538 million CNY in 2024, followed by a rebound to 1,078 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 100.3% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop to 16 million CNY in 2024, but recover to 203 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 1159.7% [2][9]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to decrease to 49.8% in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 50.7% by 2027 [2][9]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is adjusted to 0.61 CNY for 2025, with further increases to 0.82 CNY in 2026 and 1.06 CNY in 2027 [2][9]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 3.0% in 2024 to 22.7% in 2027 [2][9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 0.6% in 2024 to 11.5% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, particularly focusing on the weight loss market driven by GLP-1RAs [9]. Core Insights - The global weight loss market is rapidly expanding, with significant growth in GLP-1RAs, which saw sales reach $15.96 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.9% [9][15]. - The development trend is shifting from merely achieving weight loss to enhancing the quality of weight loss, with a focus on long-acting formulations, oral medications, and multi-target molecules [9][22]. - Major multinational corporations (MNCs) are actively positioning themselves in the weight loss sector, creating numerous business development opportunities [9][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Weight Loss Market Surge - The GLP-1RAs market is experiencing high growth, with Q1 2025 sales reaching $15.96 billion, a 47.9% increase year-on-year [9][15]. - Semaglutide has become the new "king of drugs" with sales of $8.38 billion, surpassing other major drugs [9][19]. 2. Development Trends: From Quantity to Quality - Current weight loss drugs are achieving results comparable to surgical interventions, with average weight loss figures nearing those of surgical procedures [22]. - The focus is on long-acting, oral formulations, and multi-target combinations to improve patient adherence and reduce lean body mass loss [22][23]. 2.1 Long-Acting Formulations - ASC30 has the longest half-life among long-acting formulations, supporting potential monthly dosing [23][25]. - MariTide and GZR18 are the fastest progressing long-acting formulations in clinical trials [23][27]. 2.2 Oral Formulations - Oral formulations are being developed primarily in peptide and small molecule categories, with semaglutide tablets nearing NDA submission [30][31]. - Orforglipron is expected to submit NDA by the end of 2025, potentially becoming the first approved oral GLP-1RA [46]. 2.3 Multi-Target Molecules - Multi-target molecules like GLP-1R/GIPR are gaining traction, with several in clinical development [50]. - The report highlights the potential of new targets and combinations to enhance weight loss efficacy [50]. 3. MNCs Actively Positioning - MNCs are increasingly engaging in significant transactions within the weight loss sector, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk leading the way [9][30]. - There are substantial business development opportunities for domestic companies in the weight loss market due to their competitive advantages [9][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer with a target price of HKD 33.69 based on a projected 19 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [4][10][6]. Core Views - The current consumption recovery has led to a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025. The expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be CNY 1.62, CNY 1.75, and CNY 1.86 respectively, down from the previous forecast of CNY 2.18 for 2025 [4][10]. - The "Su Chao" phenomenon is significantly stimulating beer demand, particularly benefiting China Resources Beer as a market leader in Jiangsu province. The report highlights a nearly 90% month-on-month increase in beer transaction volume in Jiangsu since the start of the "Su Chao" event [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue strong growth in mid-to-high-end products, with Heineken brand sales increasing by 20% in the first five months of the year [9][10]. - The diversification of sales channels, particularly through instant retail partnerships, is seen as a key growth driver for the company [9][10]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2023 is CNY 38,932 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.40%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to CNY 38,635 million, followed by a recovery to CNY 39,835 million in 2025 [5][13]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 4,427 million in 2023 to CNY 6,232 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.96% [5][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be CNY 5,153 million in 2023, with a slight decline in 2024 to CNY 4,739 million, before recovering to CNY 5,255 million in 2025 [5][13]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 41.36% in 2023 to 44.86% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [8] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing a weakening of fundamentals, leading to renewed expectations for policy interventions. The new housing market has seen some success with the "good housing" policy since 2025, but the de-stocking of old inventory remains unsatisfactory. The second-hand housing market has seen a notable increase in transaction volume through price adjustments, yet housing prices have been on a continuous decline since Q4 of last year. As of May, the new residential prices in 70 cities have decreased by 0.22% month-on-month and 4.08% year-on-year, indicating a comprehensive downturn in data and increasing the necessity for real estate stimulus policies. Historically, when the fundamentals weaken and stock prices approach new lows, it is considered an opportune time for investment, suggesting that the current policy negotiation window in the real estate sector has opened [2][3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of -1.4% against the CSI 300. The CSI 300 index closed at 3846.6 with a weekly decline of 0.5%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2110.8 with a weekly decline of 1.9% [4][11]. Policy Developments - Recent adjustments to housing provident fund policies are expected to optimize transactions and boost market confidence. Various cities have announced increases in loan limits and reductions in down payment ratios, which could potentially enhance the utilization of provident fund loans. However, the marginal effectiveness of these conventional measures may be limited, and if unexpected relaxations occur, it could significantly stabilize and rebound the real estate market [3][10]. Sales Performance - In the 25th week, new home sales in 44 major cities increased by 8.2% compared to the previous week, totaling 18,000 units. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities also rose by 1.8%, reaching 20,000 units. Inventory levels decreased by 0.2 million units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 22.0 months, which is an increase of 0.5 months compared to the previous week [6][13][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks based on the balance of policy negotiations and financial safety, including: - JinDi Group (600383, Accumulate) - Poly Developments (600048, Buy) - China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) - Beike-W (02423, Buy) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209, Buy) - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to New Town Holdings (601155, Not Rated), Binjiang Group (002244, Not Rated), and China Resources Land (01109, Not Rated) [10][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, achieving a market share of 24% in sales volume and 29% in sales revenue, solidifying its leading position in the Chinese television market [10]. - The FIFA World Cup is expected to enhance mid-term growth through "technical cooperation and scene ecology," which will boost brand recognition and sales in both mature and emerging markets [10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.95, 2.23, and 2.53 yuan respectively, with a target price of 29.25 yuan based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [3][11]. - Projected revenue for 2025 is 64.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.54 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year increase [5]. Key Financial Metrics - Revenue growth rates are projected at 17.2% for 2023, 9.2% for 2024, and 9.9% for 2025 [5]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 15.9% in 2025, with a net margin of 4.0% [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 11.5% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2025 [5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company leads in high-end technology, with a 30% sales volume and 32% sales revenue market share in MiniLED televisions [10]. - The company has a 42% sales volume and 49.6% sales revenue share in the 100-inch large screen market, reinforcing its competitive edge [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service is expected to enhance the sales of existing models and the upcoming Cybercab, with a fixed fare of $4.2 per ride during the initial phase [9] - Strong players in the autonomous driving and vehicle manufacturing sectors are anticipated to capture market share in the Robotaxi market, with companies like Baidu, WeRide, and Pony.ai leading in operations [3][9] - The commercialization of Robotaxi services is accelerating in China, with various companies planning to expand their fleets and services significantly by 2025 [9] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks in the T-chain benefiting from Robotaxi developments include: - Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179, Buy) - Yinlun Machinery (002126, Buy) - Top Group (601689, Buy) - Aikodi (600933, Buy) - Rongtai Co., Ltd. (605133, Buy) - Huayu Automotive (600741, Buy) [4] - Recommended smart driving vehicle stocks include: - SAIC Motor (600104, Buy) - JAC Motors (600418, Not Rated) - XPeng Motors (09868, Not Rated) - Li Auto (02015, Not Rated) - Geely Automobile (00175, Buy) [4] - Recommended smart driving chain stocks include: - Jingwei Hirain Technologies (688326, Buy) - Bertel (603596, Buy) - Desay SV (002920, Buy) - Huayang Group (002906, Buy) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "front - running" market in the bond market is expected to continue around the quarter - end, and the interest rate downward process is not over yet. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the interest rate adjustment risk after the market reaches unanimous optimism, so it is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Viewpoint: The "Front - Running" Market in the Bond Market May Continue - Previously, the report continuously suggested bond - buying opportunities. The main logic was that institutional concerns about the capital market gradually subsided, and the market shifted from divergence to unanimous optimism. Last week, this process continued, manifested in the compression of spreads, including traditional term spreads and credit spreads, and the market started to seek returns from the convex points of the curve [4][7]. - The "front - running" market was triggered by the stable capital market during the tax period and quarter - end. It is expected to continue for some time due to factors such as the seasonal expansion of fixed - income asset management products in July, the potential spread of optimistic sentiment from banks and insurance to funds, the seasonal decline of capital interest rates after the quarter - end, and the potential positive feedback of interest rate decline [4][12]. - The "front - running" market can continue around the quarter - end, but one should be cautious about interest rate adjustment risks when the market becomes unanimously optimistic. It is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. - Last week, the bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Despite some unmet expectations, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fixed - Income Market Outlook: Intensive Release of Overseas Economic Data 3.2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the May core PCE and the June University of Michigan consumer confidence index. Other important data and events include the eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's June IFO business climate index, etc. [21][22]. 3.2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply Scale of Interest - Rate Bonds - This week, it is estimated that 846.6 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds will be issued, which is at a high level compared to the same period. Treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a total scale of about 110 billion yuan, including a 91 - day discount treasury bond and a 30 - year special treasury bond worth 71 billion yuan. Local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 585.7 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 150 billion yuan [22]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook: Yields Fluctuated Downward 3.3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Situation - The central bank's reverse repurchase resulted in a net withdrawal. The reverse - repurchase injection scale reached 960.3 billion yuan, with a small net injection, but considering the MLF maturity, the open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. Capital interest rates were relatively stable. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase continued to rise, and the overnight proportion averaged around 89.7%. Capital interest rates showed differentiation. The secondary yields of medium - and long - term certificates of deposit continued to decline [28][29][34]. 3.3.2 The Capital Market Continued to Favor the Bond Market - The bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Although some expectations were not met, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week, with the 1 - year treasury bond having the largest decline [46]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Retail Data - On the production side, the operating rates were differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt operating rate and PTA operating rate decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude steel output in early June remained negative [53]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales increased. The year - on - year growth rates of the 30 - large - city commercial housing sales area increased by about 5.9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 10.5% and 8% respectively [53]. - On the price side, crude oil prices rose, copper and aluminum prices increased, and coal prices were differentiated. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index decreased slightly, the cement index decreased, and the glass index increased. The output of rebar increased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly to 3.69 million tons, and the futures price increased by 1.1%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by 1.2%, - 3.7%, and 0.3% respectively [54].

价格价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | 万里扬 | 021-63325888*2504 | | | wanliyang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | | 农药行业爆炸事故引发交易性行情，看好 | 2025-06-15 | | --- | --- | | 差异化龙头的成长逻辑 | | | 本周宏观预期修复，大宗品表现较强 | 2025-06-08 | | 本周油价小幅下跌，农药关注度较高 | 2025-06-03 | 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 以色列伊朗冲突加剧油气化工价格波动 核心观点 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请 ...