Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Credit Bond Outlook**: The recent performance of the credit bond market is better than that of the interest - rate bond market, with narrowing term spreads of various grades and most credit spreads of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds. Although there are potential negatives, the central bank's current supportive attitude makes it difficult to cause significant negative impacts. However, due to the poor liquidity of credit bonds, short - term liquidity disturbances, especially institutional behavior at the end of the quarter, need attention. Short - end coupon strategies are preferred, and long - term ordinary credit bonds should be treated with caution [5][8]. - **Convertible Bond Outlook**: The style of the convertible bond market has changed recently, with high - price, double - low, and high - rating convertible bonds performing well, while medium - and low - rating and low - price convertible bonds are relatively weak. Since May 12th, the market sentiment has weakened. But in 2025, there are three major unchanged logics in the convertible bond market, and it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [5][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Bond and Convertible Bond Views - **Credit Bonds**: The credit bond market outperforms the interest - rate bond market, with narrowing term and credit spreads. Potential negatives include cross - quarter repatriation of wealth management products, peak CD maturities, and tariff policy fluctuations. Due to poor liquidity, short - term liquidity disturbances and institutional behavior at the end of the quarter need attention. Short - end coupon strategies are preferred, and long - term ordinary credit bonds should be carefully considered [5][8]. - **Convertible Bonds**: The market style has changed, with high - price, double - low, and high - rating convertible bonds performing well. Since May 12th, market sentiment has weakened. Three major logics in 2025 remain unchanged, and it is advisable to reserve positions for right - side adding [5][10]. 3.2 Credit Bond Review - **Negative Information Monitoring**: There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, or downgrades of corporate or bond ratings during June 9 - 15, 2025, except for several companies announcing major negative events such as lawsuits, regulatory penalties, and debt repayment difficulties [14][15]. - **Primary Issuance**: The primary issuance volume of credit bonds reached 314.1 billion yuan from June 9 - 15, 2025, with a net financing of 99.6 billion yuan. The total repayment amount was 214.5 billion yuan, a 45% increase from the previous period. Four bonds with a total scale of 3 billion yuan were cancelled or postponed. The issuance costs of medium - and high - grade bonds increased by about 10bp [15][16][18]. - **Secondary Trading**: Credit bond valuations were flat at the short - end and declined at the long - end. The risk - free rate curve only slightly increased at the long - end. Short - term spreads of various grades widened slightly, mid - term spreads remained flat, and long - term spreads narrowed by 3bp. The turnover rate increased to 2.04%. High - discount bonds were mainly from real - estate companies such as Country Garden, Sunshine City, and Vanke [20][29]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Review - **Market Overall Performance**: From June 9 - 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, and other major indices mostly declined, except for the ChiNext Index, which rose 0.22%. The leading convertible bonds generally performed weaker than their underlying stocks. The top - rising convertible bonds were Jinling, Jinji, and Haibo Convertible Bonds [33]. - **Convertible Bonds Slightly Declined, Defensive Varieties Performed Well**: Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index declined 0.02%, the parity center increased 0.1% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased 0.5% to 26.5%. The average daily trading volume significantly increased to 69.298 billion yuan. Large - cap, high - rating, and double - low convertible bonds performed well [38].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 增长无惧外部环境变化，未来波动预计小 于预期——5 月经济数据点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 出口并未失速，且后续新出口订单仍值得 期待——5 月进出口点评 2025-06-12 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月半数时间未被《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》所覆盖，因此市场对经济数据 的预期偏低，同时考虑到未来国际环境变化，下半年预期更弱，但我们认为，不仅 5 月增长数据具有韧性，且结构亮点显著，内需与科技升级能够支撑全年经济达到 目标： ⚫ 生产数据有下行但不多， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report is optimistic about the subsequent bond market. It believes that incremental funds for the bond market may come from the expansion of fixed-income asset management products and the increase in insurance allocation willingness. When market concerns fade, bond market interest rates may follow the decline of funding rates [5][15]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate View: Where Do the Incremental Funds in the Bond Market Come From? - Since June, the funding situation has been looser than expected, with both funding rates and bond yields declining, but the decline in bond yields is smaller. The market is mainly worried about two issues: no more incremental funds in the bond market in the second half of the year and the unsustainability of the loose funding situation [5][8]. - The report is optimistic about the first issue, believing that there will still be incremental funds in the bond market in the second half of the year, mainly from two sources. First, fixed-income asset management products will continue to expand due to factors such as the lack of low-risk, high-return financial assets, stable market risk preferences, and the cyclical nature of fixed-income asset management products. Second, the insurance allocation demand will increase. The impact of the insurance product interest rate cut on premiums may be limited, and factors such as the deposit maturity rhythm and the search for capital gains in a low-interest rate environment may increase insurance bond allocation [5][8][11]. 2. Fixed Income Market Outlook: Release of Domestic Economic Data 2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Releases - This week, China will release economic data for May and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for June, while the US will announce its interest rate decision for June [16][17]. 2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest Rate Bonds - This week, it is expected to issue 841.8 billion yuan of interest rate bonds, which is at a high level compared to the same period. Among them, 430 billion yuan of treasury bonds, 261.8 billion yuan of local government bonds, and about 150 billion yuan of policy bank bonds are expected to be issued [17]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest Rate Bonds: Yields Fluctuate Downward 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Funding Situation - The central bank has net-repurchased reverse repurchases and continued to inject funds through outright repurchases. The net injection of open market operations this week was a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan. The central bank plans to conduct an outright repurchase injection of 40 billion yuan for six months on June 16 [23]. - Funding rates have shown slight fluctuations. The trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase has continued to rise, and the medium- and long-term secondary yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) have declined rapidly [24][26]. 3.2 The Funding Situation is Favorable for the Bond Market - Last week, the bond market fluctuated slightly around the China-US trade talks. The progress was slightly lower than expected, which was favorable for the bond market. Coupled with the loose funding situation and the central bank's support, most bond yields declined. On June 13, the yields of 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year treasury bonds decreased by 1bp, 1bp, 0.1bp, 0.6bp, and 1.1bp respectively compared to the previous week [39]. 4. High-Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Retail Data - On the production side, the operating rates are divergent. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, while the semi-steel tire operating rate increased significantly. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and PTA also increased slightly. The year-on-year growth rate of average daily crude steel production in late May further declined [44]. - On the demand side, the year-on-year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales by manufacturers have increased. The year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area has fluctuated significantly. The export indices have shown mixed changes [44]. - On the price side, crude oil prices have increased, while copper and aluminum prices, as well as coal prices, have shown divergent trends. The prices of some midstream and downstream products have also changed to varying degrees [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Insights - The demand for military equipment is expected to expand due to ongoing international turmoil, with a focus on military trade and upstream sectors [1]. - The military electronics market is anticipated to grow significantly as modernized weapon systems require advanced electronic components [7][28]. - The recent escalation of conflicts, particularly between Israel and Iran, is likely to sustain the demand for military equipment [31]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index increased by 1.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.25% [10][13]. - The relative return of the defense and military index compared to the CSI 300 was +1.29% [10]. Key News and Developments - Russia is focusing on developing modernized weapon systems, emphasizing the need for advanced electronic components [28][30]. - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has led to increased military equipment demands, with Israel conducting extensive airstrikes [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors within the military industry, including military electronics and key materials [7]. - Recommended stocks include: - Military Electronics: Zhenhua Technology, Aerospace Electrical, and others [7]. - Key Materials: Western Superconducting, Chujian New Materials, and others [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The pesticide industry explosion incident has triggered a trading market, with a focus on the growth logic of differentiated leading companies. The explosion at Shandong Youdao Chemical Co., Ltd. resulted in 5 deaths and 6 missing persons, impacting the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which has a planned capacity of 11,000 tons, significantly exceeding current demand. This incident has led to a short-term supply contraction and heightened safety inspections, causing a slight increase in the price of chlorantraniliprole [11][12] - Despite the potential short-term supply gap for chlorantraniliprole, the market does not expect a widespread and sustained price increase, as the overall supply of the pesticide industry remains excessive. However, the industry has been in a prolonged downturn, and the explosion incident may provide a marginal recovery in overall return rates. Companies with differentiated growth logic are favored, including Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co., Ltd. [12][11] - The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, which have led to significant price increases in crude oil and related chemicals. Companies such as Huayi Group, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Wankai New Materials are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from rising product prices [11][12] Summary by Sections Section 1: Core Viewpoints - The explosion incident in the pesticide industry has created a trading opportunity, with a focus on differentiated leading companies [11] - The supply of chlorantraniliprole is expected to tighten short-term, leading to a slight price increase [12] - The overall pesticide industry is in a prolonged downturn, but the explosion may provide a recovery opportunity [12] Section 2: Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of June 13, Brent oil prices increased by 11.67% to $74.23 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions and a decrease in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories [13] - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases were WTI (up 7.4%), pure benzene (up 7.3%), and styrene (up 6.9%) [14][15]

Market Overview - During the week of June 9-13, the A-share market showed a weak fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 declining by 0.25%, 0.25%, and 0.38% respectively, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.22% [6] - The performance of various sectors was mixed, with non-ferrous metals (+3.79%), oil and petrochemicals (+3.50%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+1.62%) leading the gains, while food and beverage (-4.37%), home appliances (-3.26%), and building materials (-2.77%) faced the largest declines [6] - The current PE (TTM) for CSI 300 is 12.72 times, with a risk premium of 6.22%, which is above one standard deviation, while the ChiNext Index's PE (TTM) is 30.99, below one negative standard deviation [6] Economic Indicators - As of the end of May, the total social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with M2 balance growing by 7.9% and M1 balance by 2.3% [6] - In the first five months, the incremental social financing reached 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with RMB loans increasing by 10.68 trillion yuan [6] - The CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [6] Geopolitical Events - On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and military capabilities, which escalated geopolitical tensions and caused volatility in global financial markets [6] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a rise in geopolitical risk premiums, with global markets experiencing turmoil, and commodities like oil and gold seeing price increases [6] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a view of continued wide fluctuations and structural trends in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of domestic fundamental factors for market direction [6] - It is recommended to focus on value dividend sectors and domestically supported technology industries, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries [6] - The report highlights that the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on the A-share market is primarily emotional, with sustained impacts expected to be limited [6] Valuation Analysis - In terms of PE valuation, sectors such as food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, and fishery are at historical lows, while real estate and computer sectors are at historical highs [26] - The report provides percentile rankings for PE (TTM) and PB (LF) across various sectors, indicating where current valuations stand relative to historical data [27][29]

- The report mentions that quantitative products had mixed performance last week, with active quantitative products achieving an average return of 0.00% and quantitative hedging products showing an average return of -0.01% [6][21][23] - Year-to-date, active quantitative products have delivered an average return of 4.68%, while quantitative hedging products have achieved an average return of 0.91% [6][25][27] - Among active quantitative funds, the highest year-to-date return was achieved by "Noan Multi-Strategy A" at 33.94% [25][26][28] - For quantitative hedging funds, the highest year-to-date return was recorded by "Fuguo Quantitative Hedging Strategy Three-Month Holding A" at 3.95% [25][26][28] - In the category of enhanced index funds, the "CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF" achieved the highest year-to-date excess return relative to its benchmark at 12.49% [25][26][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the humanoid robot industry, indicating a strong potential for returns exceeding 15% relative to market benchmarks [4][9]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is at a critical juncture with capacity ramp-up, accelerated mass production, and significant catalysts from major manufacturers, making it an opportune time for investment [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state batteries in driving the commercialization of humanoid robots, addressing safety concerns and enhancing user confidence [9][13]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on three investment lines: companies with Q2 performance exceeding expectations, those integrated into leading manufacturers' supply chains, and firms innovating in components like screws, dexterous hands, motors, sensors, and reducers [4][9]. - Recommended companies include: 1. Complete machines and assemblies: UBTECH, Xinjian, Estun, Tosida, Efort-U, Zhongjian Technology, Yijiahe, Yongchuang Intelligent, Jack Shares, Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Xinzhi Group, Junpu Intelligent [4][9]. 2. Components: Wuzhou Xinchun, Zhenyu Technology, Jinwo Shares, Riying Electronics, Zhongxin Fluorine Materials, Saimo Intelligent, Kangping Technology, Zhejiang Rongtai, Rongtai Shares, Green Harmonics, Siling Shares, Jiechang Drive, Zhaowei Electromechanical, Xiangxin Technology, Buke Shares, Weike Technology, Nanshan Zhishang, Hanwei Technology, Lingyun Light, Huayi Technology [4][9]. 3. Scenarios and applications: Zhongyou Technology, Dema Technology, Yinfeng Storage, Anhui He Li, Hangcha Group, Noli Shares, Shoucheng Holdings [4][9]. 4. Solid-state battery-related: Xian Dao Intelligent, Naconoer, Honggong Technology, Haimu Star [4][9]. Key Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs have initiated a pilot program for intelligent elderly care service robots from 2025 to 2027, focusing on application scenarios and standard construction [10]. - Major technological advancements are being led by tech giants, with Tesla announcing the delivery of its first fully autonomous vehicle, marking a significant shift in the global mobility ecosystem [9][12]. - The report highlights the establishment of the world's first embodied intelligent robot 4S store in Beijing, which aims to integrate sales and after-sales services, creating a standardized commercial model [9][10]. Solid-State Battery Innovations - Solid-state batteries are expected to revolutionize the humanoid robot industry by overcoming traditional limitations in battery life and safety, thus facilitating the commercial deployment of robots in various applications [9][13]. - Companies involved in solid-state battery technology include: 1. Tsinghua Unigroup, which has established partnerships with leading firms for mass production and application in robots [13]. 2. Other notable firms include Naconoer, Honggong Technology, and Haimu Star, which are advancing solid-state battery technologies and applications [13].

久立特材 002318.SZ 公司研究 | 深度报告 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年06月13日） | 24.14 元 | | 目标价格 | 32.36 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 25.52/17.4 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 97,717/95,476 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 23,589 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 钢铁 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 06 月 15 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.63 | -0.21 | 8.1 | 5.38 | | 相对表现% | 0.88 | 0.61 | 9.31 | -4.21 | | 沪深 300% | -0.25 | -0.82 | -1.21 | 9.59 | 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB ...

Quantitative Factors and Models Summary Quantitative Factors and Construction Process - **Factor Name**: Value **Construction Idea**: Captures the market's preference for value investing strategies **Construction Process**: Includes metrics like Book-to-Price (BP) and Earnings Yield (EP) **Evaluation**: Demonstrated significant positive returns in the recent week, indicating increased market recognition of value strategies [10][12][13] - **Factor Name**: SOE (State-Owned Enterprise) **Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of state ownership in a company **Construction Process**: Calculated as the percentage of shares held by state-owned entities **Evaluation**: Showed slight improvement in returns, reflecting increased market attention to state-owned enterprises [10][13] - **Factor Name**: Growth **Construction Idea**: Tracks growth potential through metrics like ROE changes and sales growth **Construction Process**: Includes metrics such as Delta ROE (average ROE change over 3 years) and Sales Growth (3-year compound growth rate of revenue) **Evaluation**: Stable performance, though slightly weaker compared to the previous week [11][13] - **Factor Name**: Volatility **Construction Idea**: Measures the market's preference for high or low volatility stocks **Construction Process**: Includes metrics like standard deviation of returns over 243 days and maximum/minimum returns over the same period **Evaluation**: Negative returns, indicating reduced demand for high-volatility assets [11][13] - **Factor Name**: Trend **Construction Idea**: Captures momentum through exponential weighted moving averages (EWMA) **Construction Process**: Metrics include Trend_120 (EWMA with half-life of 20 days divided by EWMA with half-life of 120 days) **Evaluation**: Significant decline in returns, reflecting reduced market preference for trend-following strategies [11][13] - **Factor Name**: Certainty **Construction Idea**: Measures market confidence in predictable investments **Construction Process**: Includes metrics like institutional holding percentage and analyst coverage **Evaluation**: Weak performance, indicating low market confidence in certainty-based strategies [11][13] - **Factor Name**: Liquidity **Construction Idea**: Tracks market preference for liquid assets **Construction Process**: Includes metrics like average turnover rate over 243 days and liquidity beta **Evaluation**: Declined further, showing reduced demand for high-liquidity stocks [11][13] - **Factor Name**: Beta **Construction Idea**: Measures sensitivity to market movements **Construction Process**: Bayesian compressed market beta **Evaluation**: Significant negative returns, indicating reduced preference for high-beta stocks [11][13] Factor Backtesting Results - **Value Factor**: Weekly return of 0.38%, monthly return of -4.25%, annualized return of -24.01% over the past year [12] - **SOE Factor**: Weekly return of 0.16%, monthly return of 0.71%, annualized return of 19.07% over the past year [12] - **Growth Factor**: Weekly return of -0.19%, monthly return of 2.21%, annualized return of 15.05% over the past year [12] - **Volatility Factor**: Weekly return of -0.28%, monthly return of -1.38%, annualized return of 24.81% over the past year [12] - **Trend Factor**: Weekly return of -0.41%, monthly return of 3.86%, annualized return of 16.35% over the past year [12] - **Certainty Factor**: Weekly return of -0.66%, monthly return of -3.15%, annualized return of -20.57% over the past year [12] - **Liquidity Factor**: Weekly return of -1.06%, monthly return of -2.38%, annualized return of 30.40% over the past year [12] - **Beta Factor**: Weekly return of -1.30%, monthly return of -0.80%, annualized return of 29.44% over the past year [12] MFE Portfolio Construction - **Model Name**: Maximized Factor Exposure (MFE) Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Maximizes single-factor exposure while controlling for constraints like industry and style deviations **Construction Process**: - Objective function: Maximize factor exposure - Constraints: - Style and industry exposure limits - Stock weight deviation limits - Turnover rate constraints - Formula: $ \begin{array}{ll} max & f^{T}w \\ s.t. & s_{l}\leq X(w-w_{b})\leq s_{h} \\ & h_{l}\leq H(w-w_{b})\leq h_{h} \\ & w_{l}\leq w-w_{b}\leq w_{h} \\ & b_{l}\leq B_{b}w\leq b_{h} \\ & 0\leq w\leq l \\ & 1^{T}w=1 \\ & \Sigma|w-w_{0}|\leq to_{h} \end{array} $ - $f$: Factor values - $w$: Stock weight vector - $X$: Style exposure matrix - $H$: Industry exposure matrix - $B_b$: Benchmark component weights - $to_h$: Turnover rate upper limit **Evaluation**: Effective in isolating factor performance under controlled conditions [59][60][63] MFE Portfolio Backtesting Results - **HS300 Index**: Weekly excess return range: -0.41% to 0.72%, median: 0.21% [52] - **CSI500 Index**: Weekly excess return range: -0.55% to 1.25%, median: 0.28% [56] - **CSI1000 Index**: Weekly excess return range: -0.64% to 1.05%, median: 0.22% [58]