Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 673.68 HKD [5][3] Core Views - The report highlights that AI-driven growth in advertising and gaming is expected to continue, with significant contributions from long-standing games and the upcoming launch of "Valorant" [9][3] - The forecast for IFRS net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 223.1 billion, 257.7 billion, and 297 billion RMB respectively, reflecting an upward revision based on improved expectations for gaming, advertising, and payment services [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the operating revenue is projected at 609,015 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9.82% [4] - The operating profit for 2023A is expected to be 152,784 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 52.76% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is forecasted at 115,216 million RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 38.79% [4] - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit growth, with projections of 68.44% growth in 2024A and steady growth rates of around 15% for the following years [4][3] Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates that the revenue from value-added services reached 914 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16% [9] - Gaming revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to be 592 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [9] - Marketing services revenue is projected at 358 billion RMB for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 20% [9] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, indicating a target price of 673.68 HKD, which reflects a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22 for 2025E [3][11] - The report also notes a projected P/B ratio of 5 for 2025E [4][11] Market Performance - The stock has shown a strong performance with a 60.41% increase over the past 12 months [6] - The report notes that the stock price as of August 19, 2025, was 592.5 HKD, with a 52-week high of 600 HKD and a low of 361.64 HKD [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company's performance has been under pressure due to a decrease in the incidence of respiratory diseases and adjustments in retail channels, resulting in a revenue growth of 5.0% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [11]. - The integration of Tianshili has significantly boosted the prescription drug business, which saw a revenue increase of 100.2% year-on-year, while the self-medication (CHC) business faced a decline of 17.9% [11]. - The company is expanding its R&D pipeline with multiple collaborations in cell therapy, metabolism, and oncology, including partnerships for innovative drug development [11]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.05, 2.26, and 2.49 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.99, 3.39, and 3.93 yuan [5]. - The target price is set at 45.10 yuan based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of 30.27 yuan [5][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 30.515 billion, 33.707 billion, and 37.163 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 10.5%, 10.5%, and 10.3% [7]. Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a net profit of 2.853 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 4.152 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [7]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 52.5% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 11.2% for the next few years [7]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 17.7 in 2023 to 12.2 by 2027, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation over time [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.10 CNY, based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance has been under pressure due to a decrease in the incidence of respiratory diseases and adjustments in retail channels, resulting in a 5.0% year-on-year revenue growth to 14.81 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 24.3% to 1.82 billion CNY [11]. - The prescription drug business saw significant growth, with revenues reaching 4.84 billion CNY, a 100.2% increase year-on-year, driven by the consolidation of Tian Shi Li [11]. - The company is expanding its R&D pipeline with multiple collaborations in cell therapy, metabolism, and oncology, including partnerships for innovative drug development [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 30.515 billion CNY, 33.707 billion CNY, and 37.163 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 10.5%, and 10.3% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.422 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 1.6% [7]. - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 52.5% in 2025, with a net margin of 11.2% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The convertible bond market continues to rise with the equity market, with trading volume exceeding 10 billion yuan for multiple days. The market's fear and sensitivity to high valuations have decreased. Although high valuations still suppress the willingness to increase positions, most institutions choose to maintain their current positions and profit from high - to - low rotations. In the short term, there are no domestic negative factors, and the impact of the semi - annual reports is limited. With optimistic expectations for equities, convertible bonds may continue to break through. If there is a correction, the opportunities outweigh the risks, and appropriate low - buying can be considered. The equity market is expected to strengthen with fluctuations, and the driving force of this bull market comes from the improvement of grass - roots governance capabilities and technological competitiveness, which boosts public confidence [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Convertible Bond View: Trading Heat Hits a New High, and Valuation Has Not Peaked - The convertible bond market continues to rise with the equity market, and trading volume has exceeded 10 billion yuan for multiple days, last seen in the September 24, 2024, market. The market's fear and sensitivity to high valuations have decreased. Currently, the positions of public - offering convertible bonds are generally not high, and the previous profit - taking sentiment has changed. However, high valuations still suppress the willingness to increase positions, and most institutions choose to maintain their current positions and profit from high - to - low rotations. There are no short - term domestic negative factors, and the impact of the semi - annual reports is limited. With optimistic expectations for equities, convertible bonds may continue to break through, and if there is a correction, the opportunities outweigh the risks, allowing for appropriate low - buying [8]. - Last week, the A - share market continued to rise. Policies and data such as the suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days, the introduction of interest - subsidy policies to stimulate consumption, and a slight rebound in the CPI in July had a positive impact on market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index once exceeded 3700 points, with the financial and technology sectors leading the rise, especially the securities brokerage sector, which boosted market sentiment. The equity market is expected to strengthen with fluctuations, and the driving force of this bull market comes from the improvement of grass - roots governance capabilities and technological competitiveness, which boosts public confidence [8]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: The Stock Market Reaches a New High, and Convertible Bonds Rise Accordingly 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: The Equity Market Rises with Increased Volume, Led by Technology and Securities Brokerage - From August 11th to August 15th, the market rose with increased volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.55%, the CSI 300 rose 2.37%, the CSI 1000 rose 4.09%, the ChiNext Index rose 8.58%, the STAR 50 rose 5.53%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 2.40%. In terms of industries, communication, electronics, and non - bank finance led the rise, while banking, steel, and textile clothing led the decline. The average daily trading volume increased significantly by 404.382 billion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan [11]. - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Outong, Dayuan, Jintong, Weixin, Youzu, Dongcai, Bo23, Zhongqi, Huamao, and Dongjie Convertible Bonds. In terms of trading volume, Outong, Dayuan, Jiaojian, Zhongqi, Dongjie, Tianlu, Rongtai, Haitai, Saili, and Dongcai Convertible Bonds were relatively active [11]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bonds' Trading Volume Hits a New High, with High - Priced and Small - Cap Bonds Leading the Rise - Last week, convertible bonds significantly followed the rise, with the average daily trading volume increasing significantly to 9.3085 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.60%, the parity center rose 0.8% to 109.4 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 0.5% to 21.3%. In terms of style, high - priced and small - cap convertible bonds performed well last week, while AAA - rated and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the optimization of existing housing storage policies is expected to gradually assist in inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing, which supports local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for allocation as affordable housing. The report notes that the slow progress in storage is primarily due to pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, and the responsibility for compliance and profitability lies with local governments [1][5]. - The report suggests that there is room for policy optimization, such as removing price caps to encourage developers to sell inventory, extending re-loan terms, and lowering interest rates to improve project profitability. These cumulative effects are expected to gradually aid in inventory reduction and enhance the recovery slope of real estate stock prices [1][5]. - The report emphasizes that the recovery of the real estate industry and stock prices does not solely depend on the timing of policy announcements. The decline in risk-free interest rates and the reduction in industry risk assessments are the main drivers for the recovery of real estate stocks. The report indicates that the real estate sector is entering a new bottoming phase, with the influence of the denominator (risk-free rates) surpassing that of the numerator (industry challenges), leading to a potential rebound in stock prices [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Evaluation - The report discusses the marginal optimization of existing housing storage policies, which is expected to facilitate inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China has set up a 300 billion yuan re-loan to support local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing [1]. - The report identifies that the slow progress in storage is due to the pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, with local governments bearing the ultimate responsibility for compliance and profitability [1][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific stocks, including China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Accumulate) [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8] Core Views - The company's mid-year performance showed robust revenue growth, with a 21.5% increase in profit, slightly exceeding market expectations due to effective management cost control and increased government subsidies [7] - The overall gross margin saw a slight decline, but long-term prospects for improvement are anticipated as the company continues to expand its children's business and enhance the income share from the Saucony brand [7] - The Saucony brand demonstrated strong growth, with a projected doubling of revenue over the next three years, supported by the opening of new stores and a focus on high-end running products [7] - The company is expected to strengthen its outdoor brand, Merrell, in response to the growing outdoor industry, which could become a potential growth driver in the medium term [7] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 8.54 HKD based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025 [2][8] - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 14,346 million RMB (2023), 13,577 million RMB (2024), 14,452 million RMB (2025), 15,795 million RMB (2026), and 17,244 million RMB (2027), reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][12] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1,030 million RMB in 2023 to 1,745 million RMB in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 11.8% (2023), 20.2% (2024), 10.6% (2025), 13.7% (2026), and 12.0% (2027) [2][12]

Group 1 - The classic all-weather strategy faces localization challenges in China, including unstable mapping between macro cycles and assets, the debate over inflation and growth parity, and limitations in the four-quadrant framework [4][8][16] - The core of the all-weather strategy is risk factor hedging, which includes hedging against growth risk with bonds and identifying key risk factors that have historically led to simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds [4][17][23] - Historical instances of simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds have been linked to three main risk factors: high inflation, liquidity tightening, and currency depreciation [23][26][29] Group 2 - A dynamic all-weather strategy based on risk factors can be constructed by either combining subjective views with quantitative models or by implementing a purely dynamic approach without subjective views [38][39] - The dynamic all-weather strategy emphasizes risk timing rather than return timing, focusing on the importance of risk factors in determining asset allocation [4][48] - The performance of the dynamic all-weather strategy has shown to be superior to traditional all-weather strategies, with annualized returns of 6.0% compared to 5.3% for the traditional approach [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has a low "profit - making effect", leading to the continuous withdrawal of trading funds. Despite marginal positive factors, the bond market continued to decline last week. The current situation is similar to the reversal in the bond market in the fourth quarter of last year [4][7]. - It is difficult to expect the bond market to rise again due to the end of the stock market rally. The triggers for the bond market to rise again are that loose liquidity becomes the dominant factor and the coupon value meets investors' psychological expectations [10]. - Although trading enthusiasm is cooling, the bond market still has two supporting factors: continued loose liquidity and rigid allocation demand. The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, and short - term trading enthusiasm is hard to recover immediately [4][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: The "Reverse Mirror" of the Bond Market in Q4 2024 - The bond market adjustment last week was mainly due to the low "profit - making effect", causing trading funds to withdraw. The current situation is similar to the change in the bond market sentiment in Q4 last year. The reversal last year was due to the central bank's actions and the economic "small spring". Currently, the bond market is also facing the consensus of low profit - making effect [4][7]. - It is difficult for the bond market to rise again because of the end of the stock market rally. The bond market's rise depends on loose liquidity and the coupon value reaching investors' expectations. The former requires central bank signals, and the latter needs sufficient withdrawal of trading funds and investors' confidence in limited bond market adjustment [10]. - There are two supporting factors for the bond market: continued loose liquidity and rigid allocation demand. The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, but short - term trading is difficult, and medium - and short - term credit products still have allocation value [4][11][12]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Increasing Supply of Local Government Bonds 2.1 Domestic August LPR to be Announced - This week, China will announce the August LPR, the US will announce the July new - home starts, and the eurozone will announce the August consumer confidence index and PMI. The Fed Chairman will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday [14]. 2.2 This Week's Increase in Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance - This week, it is expected to issue 931.2 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds, a relatively high level compared to previous years. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue about 402 billion yuan, local government bonds 369.2 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds about 160 billion yuan [16]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Improved Risk Appetite Puts Pressure on the Bond Market 3.1 Continued Net Withdrawal in Reverse Repurchase Operations - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operations continued to have a net withdrawal. The reverse repurchase scale reached 711.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. Tax - period funds saw a low - level increase in interest rates, with the repurchase volume rising and then falling, and the overnight and 7 - day DR and R rates changing compared to the previous week [22][23]. - The issuance of certificates of deposit remained at a relatively high level, with a net financing of - 131.1 billion yuan. The issuance by different types of banks and the proportion of different maturities changed, and the certificate of deposit rates mostly increased [28][29]. 3.2 Improved Market Risk Appetite - Last week, the resurgence of anti - involution policies led to a rapid rise in commodity prices and a stronger equity market, improving market risk appetite and putting pressure on the bond market. Despite poor financial and economic data, the positive impact was limited, and the redemption pressure on bond funds increased the bond market adjustment. On August 15, the yields of various - maturity treasury bonds mostly increased, with the 10 - year China Development Bank bond rising the most [38]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most开工率 Declined - On the production side, most开工率 declined, such as blast furnace and semi - steel tire开工率, while the asphalt开工率 increased. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early August narrowed [47]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales diverged. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area remained negative. The export indices SCFI and CCFI decreased [47]. - On the price side, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices declined, coal prices were divided, and in the middle - stream, building material prices mostly decreased. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory rose rapidly. Vegetable prices increased, while fruit and pork prices decreased [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry, indicating a relative strength compared to the market benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The banking sector has seen a turning point in net profit growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of -1.2% as of Q2 2025, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of +1.1 percentage points, ending a downward trend since Q4 2023 [10][11]. - The total asset growth rate for commercial banks reached 8.9% as of Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of +1.7 percentage points, driven primarily by high growth in bond investments [13]. - The net interest margin slightly narrowed by 1 basis point to 1.42% in H1 2025, with expectations of continued support from improved funding costs [16]. - Asset quality indicators show positive signals, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improving to 1.49% as of Q2 2025, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter [18]. - Capital adequacy ratios have significantly improved, with the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increasing by 24 basis points to reflect better internal capital replenishment capabilities [22]. Summary by Sections Net Profit Growth - As of Q2 2025, commercial banks' net profit growth has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement across state-owned, joint-stock, and city commercial banks, with respective increases of 1.0, 2.6, and 5.6 percentage points [10][11]. Asset Growth - The total asset growth rate for commercial banks was 8.9% as of Q2 2025, with state-owned banks showing the highest growth at +3.1% [13]. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks decreased slightly to 1.42% in H1 2025, influenced by a decrease in loan rates [16]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio for commercial banks improved to 1.49% as of Q2 2025, with a significant reduction in the NPL ratio for rural commercial banks [18]. Capital Adequacy - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks increased by 24 basis points as of Q2 2025, supported by recent capital injections and improved profitability [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks due to the adjustment in insurance premium rates, recommending banks such as China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [27]. Additionally, it highlights mid-sized banks with solid fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank and Jiangsu Bank, as potential investment targets [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term bond market may still be volatile, but credit can be relatively more optimistic. The 2Y - 3Y segment has adjusted to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, and allocation investors can increase their credit bond positions when yields are high. It is recommended to be conservative in terms of maturity selection, focusing on sinking credit in urban investment bonds within 3Y instead of exposing to large duration risks. [5][8] - The valuation stability of 3Y credit bonds varies among different provinces. It is advisable to use regions with stronger stability as the foundation and appropriately explore regions where the 3Y - 1Y spread has widened. [5][10] - The 3Y public bonds have further adjusted to show cost - effectiveness, and the coupon protection has reached a relatively high level, which is suitable for products with stable liability sides and high - risk preferences. Many AA + and above public bonds with a 3Y - 1Y spread of about 20bp already have investment value. [5][14][17] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint: Riding on the Steep 2Y - 3Y Yield Curve - Short - term bond market repair may not be smooth, but allocation investors can increase credit bond positions when yields are high. It is recommended to be conservative in maturity selection and focus on urban investment bond sinking within 3Y. The 2Y - 1Y spread has widened significantly, and the 2Y - 3Y segment of the yield curve has adjusted to show cost - effectiveness. [5][8] - Different regions have different 3Y valuation stabilities. Regions with strong stability include Shanghai, Fujian, Hubei, Sichuan, and Hainan, while regions with a relatively fast 3Y valuation increase include Shaanxi and Ningxia. [10] - 3Y public bonds are suitable for products with stable liability sides and high - risk preferences. AA + and above public bonds with a 3Y - 1Y spread of about 20bp have investment value. [14][17] 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review: Valuation Faces New Challenges, and Low - Grade Bonds Have Stronger Valuation Stability 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, or downgrades of corporate or bond ratings during the week from August 11 to August 17, 2025. However, several companies, including Fanhai Holdings, Ningxia Shengyan Industrial Group, and Guangzhou R & F Properties, announced negative events such as debt repayment difficulties, new cases of being listed as dishonest executors, and asset auctions. [20][21][22] 3.2.2 Primary Market Issuance: Net Financing Turns Negative, and New Bond Financing Costs Rise Across the Board - From August 11 to August 17, the primary issuance of credit bonds decreased by 29% month - on - month to 261.1 billion yuan, while the total repayment amount increased significantly to 276.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 15.3 billion yuan, turning negative for the first time since July. [22] - The number of cancelled or postponed bond issuances was 10 last week, with a total scale of 11.65 billion yuan, doubling month - on - month. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA + new bonds last week were 2.09% and 2.49% respectively, up 3bp and 19bp from the previous week. [22][23] 3.2.3 Secondary Market Transactions: Valuation Adjusts Again, and Credit Spreads Narrow Passively - The valuations of credit bonds across all grades and maturities adjusted upwards again, with a central increase of about 3bp, while spreads mostly narrowed passively by about 1bp. High - grade medium - and long - term bonds had larger adjustment amplitudes. [26] - The term spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds widened across the board, with the 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y spreads of AAA bonds widening by 4bp, while the low - grade spreads narrowed. The AA - AAA grade spreads of medium - and long - term bonds narrowed significantly, with the 5Y spread narrowing by up to 6bp, indicating that the urban investment sinking strategy continued to be dominant. [28] - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in each province narrowed by about 1bp last week, with small differences among provinces. High - valuation regions such as Guizhou and Heilongjiang saw their spreads narrow by about 2bp, but the median spreads of many provinces widened. The credit spreads of industrial bonds also mostly narrowed by 1bp, similar to urban investment bonds, and the real estate industry's spreads remained unchanged month - on - month. [30][33] - The liquidity of credit bonds continued to decline, with the turnover rate dropping by 0.04 percentage points to 1.72% month - on - month. The top ten bonds in terms of turnover rate were mainly issued by central and local state - owned enterprises. There were 8 credit bonds with a discount of more than 10% last week, mainly issued by Sunshine City and Country Garden. Among individual entities, the top five entities with widening spreads in the industrial sector were all real estate companies. [34][35][37]