电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 25Q1 风电行业招标增长，价格企稳 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 陆风周期底部回暖，静待量价修复。建议关注风电产业链复苏金风科技(002202， 未评级)、明阳智能(601615，未评级)、运达股份(300772，未评级)、日月股份 (603218，未评级)、三一重能(688349，未评级)、金雷股份(300443，未评级)等； 海风周期拐点蓄势待发，静待海风边际改善。建议关注风电产业链中海风相关度较 高环节东 方电缆(603606 ，未评级) 、振江 股份(603507，买入) 、起帆 电缆 (605222，买入)、大金重工(002487，未评级)等。 风险提示 能源结构转型速度不及预期、风电需求不及预期、竞争激烈程度增加、地缘风险、汇率 风险。 asdasd 国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 顾高臣 | 021-63325888*6119 | | --- | --- | | | gugaochen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S086052008 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported strong profit performance in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit by 110% year-on-year, reaching 320 million yuan [1] - The company is a leading publishing and distribution enterprise in Guangdong Province, with stable growth in core businesses such as educational materials and general books, while educational services are expected to become another growth driver [2] - The company has announced a record high dividend payout ratio of 61%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 53.5% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 9.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 110% year-on-year [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, 1.19 billion yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28, 1.33, and 1.39 yuan [2] - The estimated operating revenue for 2025 is projected to be 9.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [9] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 17.92 yuan, based on a P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [2] - The company's current stock price is 16.49 yuan, with a market capitalization of 14.77 billion yuan [3]

业绩稳健高分红，关注并购新潮进展 分众传媒 24 年&25Q1 业绩点评 核心观点 【事件】公司披露 24 年财报和 25 年一季报：24Q4 实现营业收入 30 亿元(yoy-7.1%)， 归母净利润 11.9 亿元(yoy-3.1%)，扣非归母净利润 11.3 亿元(yoy+0.9%)；24 全年实现 营业收入 123 亿元(yoy+3%)，归母净利润 51.6 亿元(yoy+6.8%)，扣非归母净利润 46.7%(yoy+6.7%)。25Q1 实现营业收入 28.6 亿元(yoy+4.7%)，归母净利润 11.4 亿元 (yoy+9.1%)，扣非归母净利润 9.9 亿元(yoy+4.6%)。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 2.3 元 (含税)，合计派发 48 亿元，股利支付率达 92%，对应股息率为 4.69%。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润为 54.5/57.8/61.6 亿元（25-26 年前值为 56.6/60.4 亿元），对应 EPS 为 0.38/0.40/0.43 元。参考公司历史估值 band，采用 过去 3 年平均，给予 25 年 22 倍 PE，目标价 ...

迎驾贡酒 603198.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 Q1 增速短期承压，看好中长期健康成长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据25年一季报，对25-26年下调收入，上调毛利率、费用率。我们预测公司2025- 2027 年每股收益分别为 3.37、3.91、4.46 元（原预测 25-26 年为 4.20、4.92 元）。 结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 17 倍市盈率，对应 目标价为 57.29 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：白酒消费不及预期、市场竞争加剧、食品安全事件风险。 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月29日） | 44.41 元 | | 目标价格 | 57.29 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 80.19/43.91 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 80,000/80,000 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 35,528 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 198.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 109% year-on-year [3][11] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.6 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, up 64% year-on-year [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 174,543 - 2024A: 198,381 (13.7% growth) - 2025E: 223,692 (12.8% growth) - 2026E: 242,846 (8.6% growth) - 2027E: 263,808 (8.6% growth) [6] - Operating Profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 1,519 - 2024A: 4,931 (224.7% growth) - 2025E: 9,170 (86.0% growth) - 2026E: 13,570 (48.0% growth) - 2027E: 18,707 (37.9% growth) [6] - Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (in million yuan): - 2023A: 2,547 - 2024A: 5,323 (109.0% growth) - 2025E: 8,380 (57.4% growth) - 2026E: 11,471 (36.9% growth) - 2027E: 14,776 (28.8% growth) [6] - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2023A: 0.07 - 2024A: 0.14 - 2025E: 0.22 - 2026E: 0.30 - 2027E: 0.39 [6] Market Position and Product Development - The company remains a global leader in semiconductor display technology, with its LCD products maintaining the highest shipment volume globally [11] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and enhancing its market position in innovative applications, particularly in high-end LCD solutions [11] - The company achieved a flexible OLED shipment volume of nearly 140 million units in 2024, ranking second globally, with a target of 170 million units for 2025 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 30 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 7.1%, and a net profit of 11.9 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-over-year. For the full year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 123 billion yuan, an increase of 3% year-over-year, and a net profit of 51.6 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-over-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.8 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 92%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.69% [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 54.5 billion yuan, 57.8 billion yuan, and 61.6 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.38, 0.40, and 0.43 yuan [2] - The target price for the stock is set at 8.31 yuan per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 28.6 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, and a net profit of 11.4 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-over-year [1] - The company’s revenue from elevator media reached 115 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 3.87%, while cinema media revenue was 6.9 billion yuan, down 10.4% [7] - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 66.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-over-year, and the net profit margin was 39.6%, up 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [7] - The company’s historical PE ratio over the past three years has been analyzed, indicating a stable valuation trend [8] Market Position and Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on the acquisition of New Wave Media, which aligns with its core business in elevator media, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and expanding its user base [7] - The company has seen a 13.4% year-over-year increase in revenue from the daily consumer goods sector, contributing 62% of total revenue [7]

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 198.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 109% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 50.6 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, up 64% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023: 174.54 billion yuan - 2024: 198.38 billion yuan (13.7% growth) - 2025E: 223.69 billion yuan (12.8% growth) - 2026E: 242.85 billion yuan (8.6% growth) - 2027E: 263.81 billion yuan (8.6% growth) [6] - **Net Profit**: - 2023: 2.55 billion yuan - 2024: 5.32 billion yuan (109% growth) - 2025E: 8.38 billion yuan (57.4% growth) - 2026E: 11.47 billion yuan (36.9% growth) - 2027E: 14.78 billion yuan (28.8% growth) [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.07 yuan - 2024: 0.14 yuan - 2025E: 0.22 yuan - 2026E: 0.30 yuan - 2027E: 0.39 yuan [6] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: - 2024: 15.2% - 2025E: 16.6% - 2026E: 17.6% - 2027E: 18.4% [6] - Net Margin: - 2024: 2.7% - 2025E: 3.7% - 2026E: 4.7% - 2027E: 5.6% [6] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2024: 27.2 - 2025E: 17.3 - 2026E: 12.6 - 2027E: 9.8 [6] Market Position and Product Development - The company remains a leader in the global semiconductor display market, with its LCD products maintaining the highest shipment volume globally. The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and enhancing its market position in innovative applications, particularly in high-end LCD solutions [11] - The company has seen an increase in OLED shipments, with a target of 170 million units for 2025, and has made significant technological advancements in high-end folding products [11] - The company is expanding its influence in the Internet of Things (IoT) market, achieving record sales in high-end TV and gaming products, and has made breakthroughs in self-developed products for educational and office use [11]

行业触及底部，有望迎来复苏 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 结合 2024 年原油与产品价格情况，以及公司已披露的生产经营与各项费率情况，我 们调整公司 2025 年每股收益 EPS 预测分别为 0.31 元（原预测 1.02 元），并添加 2026-2027 年预测为 0.39 和 0.49 元。我们采取历史估值法，参考公司过去 5 年 PB （TTM）均值 3.28，考虑到行业景气度底部以及预期 ROE 水平低于历史水平给予 20%折价，按 25 年每股净资产预测值 4.82 元对应目标价为 12.64 元，维持买入评 级。 风险提示 ⚫ 油价大幅波动；行业景气度下行；新材料项目发展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | 从沙特愿景计划看荣盛长期发展潜力 | 2024-03-09 | | --- | --- | | 一次极具战略构想的"跨国"炼化合作 | 2024-01-10 | | 全面挖掘四千万吨炼油盈利潜力 | 2024-01-02 | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

| | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,257 | 5,358 | 5,605 | 5,851 | 6,080 | | 同比增长 (%) | 13.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 884 | 1,059 | 1,198 | 1,315 | 1,407 | | 同比增长 (%) | -5.4% | 19.8% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 7.0% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 666 | 787 | 890 | 977 | 1,051 | | 同比增长 (%) | -5.9% | 18.2% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 7.6% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.73 | 0.86 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 1.15 | | 毛利率(%) | 67.2% | 65.9% | 66.6% | 67.2% | 67.6% | | 净利率(%) | 12.7% | 14.7% ...