Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the optimization of existing housing storage policies is expected to gradually assist in inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing, which supports local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for allocation as affordable housing. The report notes that the slow progress in storage is primarily due to pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, and the responsibility for compliance and profitability lies with local governments [1][5]. - The report suggests that there is room for policy optimization, such as removing price caps to encourage developers to sell inventory, extending re-loan terms, and lowering interest rates to improve project profitability. These cumulative effects are expected to gradually aid in inventory reduction and enhance the recovery slope of real estate stock prices [1][5]. - The report emphasizes that the recovery of the real estate industry and stock prices does not solely depend on the timing of policy announcements. The decline in risk-free interest rates and the reduction in industry risk assessments are the main drivers for the recovery of real estate stocks. The report indicates that the real estate sector is entering a new bottoming phase, with the influence of the denominator (risk-free rates) surpassing that of the numerator (industry challenges), leading to a potential rebound in stock prices [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Evaluation - The report discusses the marginal optimization of existing housing storage policies, which is expected to facilitate inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China has set up a 300 billion yuan re-loan to support local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing [1]. - The report identifies that the slow progress in storage is due to the pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, with local governments bearing the ultimate responsibility for compliance and profitability [1][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific stocks, including China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Accumulate) [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8] Core Views - The company's mid-year performance showed robust revenue growth, with a 21.5% increase in profit, slightly exceeding market expectations due to effective management cost control and increased government subsidies [7] - The overall gross margin saw a slight decline, but long-term prospects for improvement are anticipated as the company continues to expand its children's business and enhance the income share from the Saucony brand [7] - The Saucony brand demonstrated strong growth, with a projected doubling of revenue over the next three years, supported by the opening of new stores and a focus on high-end running products [7] - The company is expected to strengthen its outdoor brand, Merrell, in response to the growing outdoor industry, which could become a potential growth driver in the medium term [7] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.49, 0.56, and 0.63 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 8.54 HKD based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025 [2][8] - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 14,346 million RMB (2023), 13,577 million RMB (2024), 14,452 million RMB (2025), 15,795 million RMB (2026), and 17,244 million RMB (2027), reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][12] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1,030 million RMB in 2023 to 1,745 million RMB in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 11.8% (2023), 20.2% (2024), 10.6% (2025), 13.7% (2026), and 12.0% (2027) [2][12]

Group 1 - The classic all-weather strategy faces localization challenges in China, including unstable mapping between macro cycles and assets, the debate over inflation and growth parity, and limitations in the four-quadrant framework [4][8][16] - The core of the all-weather strategy is risk factor hedging, which includes hedging against growth risk with bonds and identifying key risk factors that have historically led to simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds [4][17][23] - Historical instances of simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds have been linked to three main risk factors: high inflation, liquidity tightening, and currency depreciation [23][26][29] Group 2 - A dynamic all-weather strategy based on risk factors can be constructed by either combining subjective views with quantitative models or by implementing a purely dynamic approach without subjective views [38][39] - The dynamic all-weather strategy emphasizes risk timing rather than return timing, focusing on the importance of risk factors in determining asset allocation [4][48] - The performance of the dynamic all-weather strategy has shown to be superior to traditional all-weather strategies, with annualized returns of 6.0% compared to 5.3% for the traditional approach [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has a low "profit - making effect", leading to the continuous withdrawal of trading funds. Despite marginal positive factors, the bond market continued to decline last week. The current situation is similar to the reversal in the bond market in the fourth quarter of last year [4][7]. - It is difficult to expect the bond market to rise again due to the end of the stock market rally. The triggers for the bond market to rise again are that loose liquidity becomes the dominant factor and the coupon value meets investors' psychological expectations [10]. - Although trading enthusiasm is cooling, the bond market still has two supporting factors: continued loose liquidity and rigid allocation demand. The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, and short - term trading enthusiasm is hard to recover immediately [4][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: The "Reverse Mirror" of the Bond Market in Q4 2024 - The bond market adjustment last week was mainly due to the low "profit - making effect", causing trading funds to withdraw. The current situation is similar to the change in the bond market sentiment in Q4 last year. The reversal last year was due to the central bank's actions and the economic "small spring". Currently, the bond market is also facing the consensus of low profit - making effect [4][7]. - It is difficult for the bond market to rise again because of the end of the stock market rally. The bond market's rise depends on loose liquidity and the coupon value reaching investors' expectations. The former requires central bank signals, and the latter needs sufficient withdrawal of trading funds and investors' confidence in limited bond market adjustment [10]. - There are two supporting factors for the bond market: continued loose liquidity and rigid allocation demand. The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, but short - term trading is difficult, and medium - and short - term credit products still have allocation value [4][11][12]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Increasing Supply of Local Government Bonds 2.1 Domestic August LPR to be Announced - This week, China will announce the August LPR, the US will announce the July new - home starts, and the eurozone will announce the August consumer confidence index and PMI. The Fed Chairman will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday [14]. 2.2 This Week's Increase in Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance - This week, it is expected to issue 931.2 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds, a relatively high level compared to previous years. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue about 402 billion yuan, local government bonds 369.2 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds about 160 billion yuan [16]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Improved Risk Appetite Puts Pressure on the Bond Market 3.1 Continued Net Withdrawal in Reverse Repurchase Operations - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operations continued to have a net withdrawal. The reverse repurchase scale reached 711.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. Tax - period funds saw a low - level increase in interest rates, with the repurchase volume rising and then falling, and the overnight and 7 - day DR and R rates changing compared to the previous week [22][23]. - The issuance of certificates of deposit remained at a relatively high level, with a net financing of - 131.1 billion yuan. The issuance by different types of banks and the proportion of different maturities changed, and the certificate of deposit rates mostly increased [28][29]. 3.2 Improved Market Risk Appetite - Last week, the resurgence of anti - involution policies led to a rapid rise in commodity prices and a stronger equity market, improving market risk appetite and putting pressure on the bond market. Despite poor financial and economic data, the positive impact was limited, and the redemption pressure on bond funds increased the bond market adjustment. On August 15, the yields of various - maturity treasury bonds mostly increased, with the 10 - year China Development Bank bond rising the most [38]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most开工率 Declined - On the production side, most开工率 declined, such as blast furnace and semi - steel tire开工率, while the asphalt开工率 increased. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early August narrowed [47]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales diverged. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area remained negative. The export indices SCFI and CCFI decreased [47]. - On the price side, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices declined, coal prices were divided, and in the middle - stream, building material prices mostly decreased. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory rose rapidly. Vegetable prices increased, while fruit and pork prices decreased [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry, indicating a relative strength compared to the market benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The banking sector has seen a turning point in net profit growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of -1.2% as of Q2 2025, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of +1.1 percentage points, ending a downward trend since Q4 2023 [10][11]. - The total asset growth rate for commercial banks reached 8.9% as of Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of +1.7 percentage points, driven primarily by high growth in bond investments [13]. - The net interest margin slightly narrowed by 1 basis point to 1.42% in H1 2025, with expectations of continued support from improved funding costs [16]. - Asset quality indicators show positive signals, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improving to 1.49% as of Q2 2025, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter [18]. - Capital adequacy ratios have significantly improved, with the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increasing by 24 basis points to reflect better internal capital replenishment capabilities [22]. Summary by Sections Net Profit Growth - As of Q2 2025, commercial banks' net profit growth has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement across state-owned, joint-stock, and city commercial banks, with respective increases of 1.0, 2.6, and 5.6 percentage points [10][11]. Asset Growth - The total asset growth rate for commercial banks was 8.9% as of Q2 2025, with state-owned banks showing the highest growth at +3.1% [13]. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks decreased slightly to 1.42% in H1 2025, influenced by a decrease in loan rates [16]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio for commercial banks improved to 1.49% as of Q2 2025, with a significant reduction in the NPL ratio for rural commercial banks [18]. Capital Adequacy - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks increased by 24 basis points as of Q2 2025, supported by recent capital injections and improved profitability [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks due to the adjustment in insurance premium rates, recommending banks such as China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [27]. Additionally, it highlights mid-sized banks with solid fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank and Jiangsu Bank, as potential investment targets [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term bond market may still be volatile, but credit can be relatively more optimistic. The 2Y - 3Y segment has adjusted to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, and allocation investors can increase their credit bond positions when yields are high. It is recommended to be conservative in terms of maturity selection, focusing on sinking credit in urban investment bonds within 3Y instead of exposing to large duration risks. [5][8] - The valuation stability of 3Y credit bonds varies among different provinces. It is advisable to use regions with stronger stability as the foundation and appropriately explore regions where the 3Y - 1Y spread has widened. [5][10] - The 3Y public bonds have further adjusted to show cost - effectiveness, and the coupon protection has reached a relatively high level, which is suitable for products with stable liability sides and high - risk preferences. Many AA + and above public bonds with a 3Y - 1Y spread of about 20bp already have investment value. [5][14][17] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint: Riding on the Steep 2Y - 3Y Yield Curve - Short - term bond market repair may not be smooth, but allocation investors can increase credit bond positions when yields are high. It is recommended to be conservative in maturity selection and focus on urban investment bond sinking within 3Y. The 2Y - 1Y spread has widened significantly, and the 2Y - 3Y segment of the yield curve has adjusted to show cost - effectiveness. [5][8] - Different regions have different 3Y valuation stabilities. Regions with strong stability include Shanghai, Fujian, Hubei, Sichuan, and Hainan, while regions with a relatively fast 3Y valuation increase include Shaanxi and Ningxia. [10] - 3Y public bonds are suitable for products with stable liability sides and high - risk preferences. AA + and above public bonds with a 3Y - 1Y spread of about 20bp have investment value. [14][17] 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review: Valuation Faces New Challenges, and Low - Grade Bonds Have Stronger Valuation Stability 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, or downgrades of corporate or bond ratings during the week from August 11 to August 17, 2025. However, several companies, including Fanhai Holdings, Ningxia Shengyan Industrial Group, and Guangzhou R & F Properties, announced negative events such as debt repayment difficulties, new cases of being listed as dishonest executors, and asset auctions. [20][21][22] 3.2.2 Primary Market Issuance: Net Financing Turns Negative, and New Bond Financing Costs Rise Across the Board - From August 11 to August 17, the primary issuance of credit bonds decreased by 29% month - on - month to 261.1 billion yuan, while the total repayment amount increased significantly to 276.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 15.3 billion yuan, turning negative for the first time since July. [22] - The number of cancelled or postponed bond issuances was 10 last week, with a total scale of 11.65 billion yuan, doubling month - on - month. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA + new bonds last week were 2.09% and 2.49% respectively, up 3bp and 19bp from the previous week. [22][23] 3.2.3 Secondary Market Transactions: Valuation Adjusts Again, and Credit Spreads Narrow Passively - The valuations of credit bonds across all grades and maturities adjusted upwards again, with a central increase of about 3bp, while spreads mostly narrowed passively by about 1bp. High - grade medium - and long - term bonds had larger adjustment amplitudes. [26] - The term spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds widened across the board, with the 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y spreads of AAA bonds widening by 4bp, while the low - grade spreads narrowed. The AA - AAA grade spreads of medium - and long - term bonds narrowed significantly, with the 5Y spread narrowing by up to 6bp, indicating that the urban investment sinking strategy continued to be dominant. [28] - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in each province narrowed by about 1bp last week, with small differences among provinces. High - valuation regions such as Guizhou and Heilongjiang saw their spreads narrow by about 2bp, but the median spreads of many provinces widened. The credit spreads of industrial bonds also mostly narrowed by 1bp, similar to urban investment bonds, and the real estate industry's spreads remained unchanged month - on - month. [30][33] - The liquidity of credit bonds continued to decline, with the turnover rate dropping by 0.04 percentage points to 1.72% month - on - month. The top ten bonds in terms of turnover rate were mainly issued by central and local state - owned enterprises. There were 8 credit bonds with a discount of more than 10% last week, mainly issued by Sunshine City and Country Garden. Among individual entities, the top five entities with widening spreads in the industrial sector were all real estate companies. [34][35][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry [5] Core Insights - The AI application sector is entering a commercialization phase, presenting numerous investment opportunities in both AI application and computing power industries [3][8] - Major tech companies are increasingly integrating AI into their core business operations, driving significant revenue growth [8][47] Summary by Sections Section 1: Rapid Model Iteration and AI Business Realization - The competition among global tech companies in large model development is intensifying, with 11 companies releasing or iterating 32 versions of large models within approximately 220 days [12][18] - The introduction of reinforcement learning has significantly enhanced model inference capabilities, leading to the rapid development of various applications in programming, law, sales, and design [17][20] Section 2: Increased Computing Power Consumption and Capital Expenditure - Microsoft leads the AI infrastructure investment, with capital expenditures reaching $88.2 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, followed by Google and Meta with $85 billion and $66-72 billion respectively [8][71] - The rapid growth in AI token consumption is driving tech giants to increase their capital expenditures to support AI infrastructure [71] Section 3: Investment Recommendations and Targets - Investors are advised to focus on the overall opportunities in the AI application sector, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment, including: - AI Application Sector: Zhuoyi Information, Keda Xunfei, Tax Friend, Kingsoft Office, Dingjie Smart, Hand Information, Focus Technology, Fanwei Network, Caixun Co., Wanjing Technology, Foxit Software, Dongtu Technology, New Zhisoft [3] - AI Computing Power Sector: Cambrian-U, Haiguang Information, Runjian Co., Xiechuang Data, Aofei Data, Capital Online, Yike De-W, Guanghuan New Network, Runze Technology [3]

Group 1 - The index has reached a new high as expected, with technology and non-bank sectors being the core drivers. The index broke through to a new high since 924, with communication, electronics, and non-bank sectors rising by 7.7%, 7.0%, and 6.5% respectively, indicating continued optimism for these sectors [1][12][14] - The market trend is healthy, and there is a strong upward confidence from domestic capital, making a firm hold on investments a suitable strategy [2][13] - The technology sector is viewed as a certain mainline, with a particular focus on the domestic AI industry chain, which is expected to strengthen its relative advantages [3][14] Group 2 - Within the AI-related sectors, there is a strong outlook for computing power-related areas, including liquid cooling, electronic cloth, and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). The domestic companies are expected to see breakthroughs and opportunities for domestic substitution [4][15] - The domestic AI chip core companies have seen a 33% increase, indicating that the market's allocation towards domestic computing power is just beginning [4][15] - Robotics is highlighted as an important application area for AI, with a focus on new components and application scenarios [4][15][16] Group 3 - The integration of AI and unmanned technologies is anticipated to be a major method of warfare in the future, with increasing market attention [5][16] - AI applications are becoming widespread across various life sectors, with the release of new domestic models expected to act as a catalyst for growth in the AI application sector [5][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The development of deep-sea technology is crucial for national defense security and resource utilization, recognized as a key strategic direction for the 14th Five-Year Plan [9][12]. - The future of unmanned combat systems is expected to evolve towards collaboration, intelligence, and electronic warfare, with significant global interest in drone deployment [17][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the military industry in the current economic context, highlighting the potential for growth in demand for military electronics and key materials [19]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests focusing on various sub-sectors within the military industry, including military electronics, new quality and new domains, and military trade, with specific companies recommended for investment [19]. Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index (Shenwan) increased by 0.15%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.70% [21][22]. - The report notes that the military industry ranked 21st out of 31 in terms of performance among Shenwan's primary industry indices [24]. Key Developments - The report outlines significant advancements in deep-sea technology, including the development of various deep-sea equipment and systems, which are expected to drive growth in the industry [13][15]. - It highlights the increasing global emphasis on unmanned combat systems, with countries like Japan planning substantial investments in drone technology [17][18]. Market Trends - The report indicates a positive outlook for the military industry as the new phase of equipment construction approaches, with a focus on domestic demand recovery and advancements in new quality production capabilities [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous and steel industries [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of new non-ferrous materials in accelerating applications in AI hardware, highlighting that the market has not fully priced in the use of non-ferrous metals in AI [12][13]. - The demand for liquid cooling technology is expected to grow significantly due to the limitations of air cooling systems, with copper and aluminum being key materials for heat transfer [13]. - The report forecasts a substantial increase in the market for metal soft magnetic materials driven by the explosive growth in AI computing power, with AI server shipments projected to rise significantly [14]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report highlights the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions in AI hardware, with copper and aluminum being essential materials due to their thermal conductivity [13]. - It notes that the next generation of AI computing cards will adopt full liquid cooling solutions, further driving demand for these metals [13]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies like Huafeng Aluminum (601702) and Platinum New Materials (300811) due to their strategic positioning in the market [13][14]. Steel Industry - The report discusses the short-term fluctuations in steel profitability under the "anti-involution" policy, with expectations for stabilization and recovery in the medium term [15]. - It notes a decrease in rebar consumption, with a reported 190 million tons consumed this week, reflecting a 9.89% week-on-week decline [15][20]. - The report indicates that steel prices are expected to rise in the future, supported by the "anti-involution" policy [32]. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium production in July 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 28.33%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39]. - It highlights the high growth in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with a 24.11% year-on-year increase in production in June 2025 [43]. - The report mentions rising prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, with lithium carbonate prices reaching 83,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an 18.57% week-on-week increase [48][49]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that global refined copper production increased by 2.88% year-on-year in May 2025, although supply growth is not keeping pace with demand [57][59]. - It highlights a significant rise in the import volume of scrap copper, which increased by 19.05% month-on-month in June 2025 [61].