赛分科技 688758.SH 公司研究 | 首次报告 | 国产色谱领先者，迎新成长周期 | | --- | ——赛分科技首次覆盖报告 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2024-2026 年每股收益分别为 0.21、0.27 和 0.32 元。工业纯化板块 是公司未来重点发展方向，随着下游需求释放业绩有望迅速增长，后续公司新产能 投放有望加速市占率提升。根据可比公司 2026 年平均估值，给予公司 2026 年 59 倍市盈率，对应目标价 18.88 元，首次给予"增持"评级。 风险提示 市场竞争加剧风险；产能释放低于预期风险；业绩增长不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 213 | 245 | 315 | 378 | 449 | | 同比增长 (%) | 37.4% | 15.2% | 28.5% | 19.8% | 19.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 52 | 61 | 100 | 131 | 15 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time, with a target price of 18.88 CNY based on a 59 times P/E ratio for 2026 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic chromatography manufacturer, entering a new growth cycle with rapid revenue and profit growth, particularly in the industrial purification segment, which has become the core business [11][25]. - The company has strong competitive advantages in its core products, with both industrial purification and analytical chromatography segments showing robust performance and collaboration with key clients [11][12]. - There is significant growth potential driven by strong downstream demand and a trend towards domestic substitution in the chromatography market, especially in the context of rising cost pressures from drug price reductions [11][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.21 CNY, 0.27 CNY, and 0.32 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a rapid increase in revenue expected from the industrial purification segment [5][11]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.13 billion CNY in 2022 to 4.49 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% from 2019 to 2024 [7][25]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 470 million CNY in 2022 to 1.33 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 86% from 2020 to 2024 [7][25]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2002 in the United States, specializes in analytical chromatography and industrial purification chromatography fillers, and is one of the few companies with R&D and large-scale production capabilities in both fields [11][16]. - The company has a clear equity structure and has attracted significant strategic investors, enhancing its market position and operational capabilities [18][19]. Product Competitiveness - The company’s industrial purification products are primarily used in the clinical research and industrial production phases of drug development, with a comprehensive range of over 100 products covering various separation modes and application scenarios [46][50]. - The analytical chromatography segment has a stable revenue structure, primarily driven by size exclusion chromatography columns, while the industrial purification segment has shown significant growth since 2020 [32][46]. Market Demand and Growth Potential - The company has accumulated a substantial number of early-stage projects, with 106 early clinical projects and 56 late clinical and commercial projects expected to drive demand [11][12]. - The domestic chromatography and industrial purification market has a high concentration and low domestic substitution rate, indicating significant growth opportunities as the trend towards domestic products increases [11][12].

核心指标超预期，AI 驱动发展进入新周期 ——阿里巴巴 FY3Q25 业绩点评 核心观点 阿里巴巴-W 09988.HK 买入（维持） | 股价（2025年03月05日） | 129.9 港元 | | --- | --- | | 目标价格 | 175.10 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 140.9/64.41 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 1,900,774/1,900,774 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 2,469,106 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 03 月 06 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -5.11 | 33.16 | 58.51 | 90.4 | | 相对表现% | -4.3 | 18.61 | 37.89 | 44.42 | | 恒生指数% | -0.81 | 14.55 | 20.62 | 45.98 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [2][6][22] Core Insights - Alibaba's FY3Q25 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 2801.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and adjusted net profit of 510.7 billion yuan, up 6.5% [4][6] - The company is entering a new growth cycle driven by AI, with significant capital expenditure planned to enhance cloud computing and AI infrastructure [4][9][22] Financial Performance - Alibaba's revenue for FY3Q25 was 2801.5 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg consensus of 2774 billion yuan [4] - Adjusted net profit for FY3Q25 was 510.7 billion yuan, significantly above the expected 455 billion yuan [4] - The company's capital expenditure for FY3Q25 reached 317.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 258.8% [4][9] Business Segments - Taobao Group generated revenue of 1360.9 billion yuan in FY3Q25, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [4] - Cloud Intelligence Group reported revenue of 317.4 billion yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI-related services [4] - International Digital Commerce achieved revenue of 377.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [4] Future Outlook - The report forecasts Alibaba's revenue for FY2025-2027 to be 10046 billion yuan, 11230 billion yuan, and 12545 billion yuan respectively [6][22] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 1577 billion yuan, 1656 billion yuan, and 1863 billion yuan for FY2025-2027 [6][22] - The company plans to invest over 3800 billion yuan in AI and cloud computing infrastructure over the next three years [9][22]

减持影响逐步消化，核心大单品仍稳健增 长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑公司新品布局及盈利改善，上调 24-26 年营收、毛利率，预测 24-26 年每股收益 分别为 6.24、8.45 和 10.83 元（原预测 24-26 年为 6.17、7.69 和 9.57 元）。维持 FCFF 估值法，测算股权价值 1570 亿元，对应目标价 301.88 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 市场竞争加剧、行业增速放缓风险、原材料成本大幅上升、新品不及预期风险 公司主要财务信息 东鹏饮料动态跟踪 —— 减持影响逐步消化，核心大单品仍稳健增长 考虑公司新品布局及盈利改善，上调 24-26 年营收、毛利率，预测 24-26 年每股收益分别为 6.24、 8.45 和 10.83 元（原预测 24-26 年为 6.17、7.69 和 9.57 元）。维持采用 FCFF 估值法，测算公 司股权价值 1570 亿元，对应目标价 301.88 元，维持买入评级。 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 宽财政加码，宽信用仍可期 ——银行视角看 2025 政府工作报告 核心观点 低 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 货币政策超预期收紧；财政政策不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延。 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 05 日 | 屈俊 | qujun@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523060001 | | 于博文 | yubowen1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524020002 | 银行行业动态跟踪 —— 宽财政加码，宽信用仍可期 | | 表 1：2022-2025 年政府工作报告主要内容 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 时间 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | | | 1. 国内生产总值增长 5%左右 | 1. 国内生产总值增长 5%左右 | 1. 国内生产总值增长 5%左右 | 1. 国内生产总值增长 5.5%左右 | | | | | | 2. 城 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (09899.HK) with a target price of HKD 167.81, equivalent to RMB 154.80 [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the continuous optimization of its music library and the strengthening of its online music operations, leading to an increase in monthly active users (MAU) [4]. - The introduction of well-known Korean music labels and the promotion of original music are anticipated to enhance online music revenue, with projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being RMB 1.56 billion, RMB 1.72 billion, and RMB 2.18 billion respectively [4]. - The report highlights a strategic shift towards core music business, with a reduction in social entertainment revenue due to a more cautious operational approach [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 8.995 billion, with a projected decline to RMB 7.867 billion in 2023, followed by a slight recovery to RMB 8.015 billion in 2024 [6][12]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 734 million in 2023, with expectations of RMB 1.562 billion in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 112.7% [6][12]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 26.7% in 2023 to 33.7% in 2024, driven by increased online music revenue and cost optimization measures [6][12]. Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue is projected to reach RMB 28 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%, primarily due to enhanced membership services and content offerings [9]. - Social entertainment revenue is expected to decline to RMB 11 billion in 2024, down 33% year-on-year, as the company focuses on its core music business [9]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a comparable company analysis, suggesting an average adjusted P/E ratio of 20 times for 2025, which supports the target price of HKD 167.81 [4][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 7.21, increasing to RMB 10.06 by 2026 [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 174.20 HKD / 160.69 CNY [3][6]. Core Views - The new games "燕云十六声" and "七日世界" are expected to drive revenue growth for the company. The forecasted net profit for the years 2024 to 2026 is 297 billion, 326 billion, and 348 billion CNY respectively, adjusted from previous estimates due to changes in game launch schedules and sales expense rates [3][9]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 96,496 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 10.15%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 105,295 million CNY, reflecting a modest growth of 1.77% [4][15]. - The operating profit for 2022 was 19,629 million CNY, with a significant year-on-year increase of 19.56%. The forecast for 2024 is 29,584 million CNY, indicating a growth of 6.77% [4][15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 20,338 million CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 20.65%. The projected net profit for 2024 is 29,698 million CNY, with a minimal growth of 0.96% [4][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 5.89 CNY, expected to rise to 8.60 CNY in 2024 [4][15]. - The gross margin for 2022 was 54.68%, projected to improve to 62.50% in 2024 [4][15]. - The net margin for 2022 was 21.08%, expected to be 28.20% in 2024 [4][15]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2022 was 20.33%, projected to decrease to 22.59% in 2024 [4][15]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 25 in 2024 to 17 in 2025 and further to 15 in 2026 [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 167.81 (CNY 154.80) based on a 20x adjusted P/E for comparable companies in 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the continuous optimization of its music library and the strengthening of its original music promotion, leading to an increase in online music MAU (Monthly Active Users) [4]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is projected to be CNY 1.56 billion, CNY 1.72 billion, and CNY 2.18 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates due to better-than-expected music library additions [4][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company's revenue for 2022 was CNY 8.995 billion, with a projected decline to CNY 7.867 billion in 2023, followed by a slight recovery to CNY 8.015 billion in 2024, and further growth to CNY 8.262 billion in 2025 and CNY 9.158 billion in 2026 [6][12]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit for 2022 was a loss of CNY 221 million, with a turnaround to a profit of CNY 734 million in 2023, and projected profits of CNY 1.562 billion, CNY 1.716 billion, and CNY 2.179 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to improve from a loss of CNY 1.02 in 2022 to CNY 3.39 in 2023, and further to CNY 7.21, CNY 7.92, and CNY 10.06 in the following years [6][12]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is projected to increase from 14.4% in 2022 to 26.7% in 2023, reaching 33.7% in 2024 and continuing to rise to 38.5% by 2026 [6][12]. - **Net Margin**: The net margin is expected to shift from -2.5% in 2022 to 9.3% in 2023, with further improvements to 19.5%, 20.8%, and 23.8% in the subsequent years [6][12]. Market Performance - The company's stock performance over the past year shows a significant increase, with a 71.01% rise in December and a 31% increase over the past month [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 174.20 HKD / 160.69 CNY [3][6]. Core Views - The launch of new games such as "燕云十六声" and "七日世界" is expected to drive revenue growth for the company. The forecasted net profit for the years 2024 to 2026 is 297 billion, 326 billion, and 348 billion CNY respectively, reflecting adjustments in game launch schedules and sales expense rates [3][8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 96,496 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 10.15%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 105,295 million CNY, with a growth rate of 1.77% [4][15]. - The operating profit for 2022 was 19,629 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.56%. The projected operating profit for 2024 is 29,584 million CNY, with a growth rate of 6.77% [4][15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 20,338 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 20.65%. The projected net profit for 2024 is 29,698 million CNY, with a growth rate of 0.96% [4][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 5.89 CNY, projected to be 8.60 CNY in 2024 [4][15]. - The gross margin for 2022 was 54.68%, expected to increase to 62.50% in 2024 [4][15]. - The net margin for 2022 was 21.08%, projected to be 28.20% in 2024 [4][15]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2022 was 20.33%, expected to decrease to 22.59% in 2024 [4][15]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected to be 17 [4][15].