固定收益 | 动态跟踪 资金难收紧，债市难大涨 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | △ * = li | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 债市难以复刻 2020 年末行情：固定收益市 | ...

国补高基数带电承压，开拓新业务亏损加 大 京东集团-SW 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们调整盈利预测，预测公司 2025-2027 年收入为 13040/13479/14230 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 13382/14151/14981 亿元），经调整归母净利润为 263/225/442 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 271/438/525 亿元）。参考可比公司给 予 2026 年 11X PE 估值，加上公司股权投资价值计算得公司目标市值为 5023 亿 元，对应每股股价 173.32 港元（人民币兑港币汇率 1.100），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：外卖亏损收缩不及预期，以旧换新政策效果不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,303,975 | 1,347,877 | 1,423,025 | | 同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - A super cycle for industrial metals may have arrived, with a focus on copper and aluminum sectors. The report highlights that even small supply-demand gaps can lead to significant price elasticity during a rate-cutting cycle [9][13] - Copper prices have surged, with LME copper closing at a historical high of $11,655 per ton, driven by supply tightness and tariff concerns [9][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from strong demand in energy storage, with projections indicating a need for 800,000 tons of aluminum materials due to the anticipated growth in storage battery production [9][14] - The gold sector is also viewed positively, with expectations for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by rising inflation expectations [9][15] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report indicates a significant increase in metal prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising sharply. The LME copper price increased by 1.88% recently, reflecting strong market conditions [9][13] - Supply constraints are evident, with LME copper warehouse cancellations reaching 56,900 tons, about 35% of total inventory, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in 13 years [9][13] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors will see continued price increases due to strong demand from traditional and new energy sectors [9][13][14] Steel - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, with a slight recovery in steel profitability noted [17] - Weekly rebar consumption decreased by 4.81% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in demand [21] - Overall steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.16% week-on-week increase [38][39] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [46] - Nickel production and consumption trends are mixed, with refined nickel output in China showing a notable year-on-year decline of 12.20% [44][49] Price Trends - The report notes that lithium prices have seen a slight decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 91,100 yuan per ton, down 2.36% week-on-week [51][52] - Cobalt prices have increased significantly, with sulfuric acid cobalt priced at 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.45% [51][52]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a strengthened expectation for a market style shift towards mid-cap blue chips, with investment opportunities identified in the consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors of mid-cap blue chips [3][13]. Market Analysis - The market continues its rebound, with recent news regarding adjustments to insurance companies' stock investment risk factors and comments from Chairman Wu Qing reinforcing the trend of index fluctuations. This combination of lower risk assessments, a slight increase in risk-free rates, and a convergence of risk preferences towards the middle suggests ongoing investment opportunities in companies with moderate risk profiles [4][14]. - The risk assessment is expected to decline as Chairman Wu's remarks paint a more stable and predictable long-term development outlook, alleviating investor concerns about the long-term prospects of the Chinese capital market. Additionally, the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies reduces the capital occupation cost for investing in A-shares, encouraging greater equity asset allocation [4][14]. - There is a potential slight increase in risk-free rates as insurance companies may shift more funds from fixed-income assets to stocks, which could support the risk-free rate due to improved expectations for the capital market's efficiency in serving the real economy and new productive forces [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has consistently anticipated a trend towards technology and dividends. The report suggests that the current market style of extreme risk is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to be found in stocks with moderate risk characteristics. The mid-cap blue chip market, which has been dormant for four years, is expected to rise again [6][16]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-cap blue chips across three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been underperforming for years, is approaching a turning point. Many consumer stocks are undervalued, and supply constraints may lead to price increases. Focus areas include mid-sized liquor companies, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care [7][17]. 2. The cyclical sector is experiencing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic metals (such as antimony and rare earths), industrial metals (copper and aluminum), and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are seeing improved supply-demand dynamics [7][17]. 3. The manufacturing sector is shifting from "dream narratives" to "reality verification." Investment in this sector should focus on validating orders and revenues rather than speculative stories. Key areas include communications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery, which are expected to show consistent performance [7][17]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: 1. Aerospace satellites: There is market divergence regarding the progress of the satellite industry next year, with expectations for continuous event catalysts related to reusable rockets, which could significantly boost industry development. The pace of industry IPOs is expected to accelerate, with opportunities in satellite constellation networking, satellite bidding, commercial rockets, and terminal applications [8][18]. 2. Upstream price increases: Supply constraints and structural demand growth are expected to provide price elasticity for related products, particularly in the upstream of the new energy industry, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [8][20]. 3. Semiconductor expansion and domestic substitution: Domestic wafer fabs are anticipated to expand next year, and the capitalization processes of domestic memory chip leaders are progressing. Attention should be given to domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials for domestic substitution [8][20]. 4. Artificial intelligence: Recent market divergences have been digested, and expectations for industry development are likely to continue rising, with a focus on robotics and computing power [8][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 50.66 CNY based on a 34x PE valuation for 2026 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit from 320 million CNY in 2025 to 583 million CNY in 2027, with a revised forecast reflecting an increase in gross margin [4][12]. - The acquisition of a 51% stake in a liquid cooling technology company is aimed at enhancing the company's data center business, which is becoming increasingly essential [11]. - The demand for thermal management solutions is expected to grow, particularly in AI-enabled devices, positioning the company to benefit from this trend [11]. Financial Forecasts - The company's projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 2.09 billion CNY, 2.94 billion CNY, and 3.96 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 33.3%, 40.7%, and 34.7% [6][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 31.0% in 2024 to 34.0% in 2025, before stabilizing at around 32.3% by 2027 [6][12]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 12.9% in 2024 to 15.3% in 2025, reflecting the company's operational efficiency [6][12]. Business Developments - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond graphite materials to include a comprehensive range of thermal management solutions, which are critical for various applications including smartphones and data centers [11]. - The company has established strong partnerships with leading clients in various sectors, including industrial, automotive, and medical, enhancing its market position [11].

华峰化学 002064.SZ 公司研究 | 季报点评 风险提示：在建项目不及预期；产品需求不及预期；氨纶产能消化风险；原材料价格 波动。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 26,298 | 26,931 | 25,750 | 27,607 | 29,368 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.6% | 2.4% | -4.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,768 | 2,563 | 2,251 | 3,203 | 3,811 | | 同比增长 (%) | -13.6% | -7.4% | -12.2% | 42.3% | 19.0% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 2,478 | 2,220 | 1,944 | 2,785 | 3,322 | | 同比增长 (%) | -12.9% | -10.4% | -12.4% | 43.3% | 19.3% | | 每股收益（ ...

特朗普政府高度重视机器人产业，机器人 产业或将迎来国内和海外共振发展 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 从投资策略上看，预计能确定进入特斯拉、Figure 等机器人配套产业链的汽零将受益， 建议持续关注人形机器人链、T 链、液冷产业链、华为产业链、智驾产业链公司。 相关标的：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、赛力斯、中国重汽、宇通客车；银轮股份、 新泉股份、博俊科技、爱柯迪、拓普集团、嵘泰股份、经纬恒润、岱美股份、沪光股 份、保隆科技、精锻科技、斯菱股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛西威、科博 达、星宇股份、三花智控、福耀玻璃、浙江荣泰等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 07 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 袁俊轩 | 执业证书编号：S0860523070005 | | | yuanjunxuan ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The cross-border e-commerce sector remains robust, with a focus on leading brands and B2B companies actively implementing AI applications [3] - Online sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday showed steady growth, with significant increases in consumer spending [8] - The performance of AI in e-commerce is notable, with a substantial rise in traffic driven by AI tools, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [8] Summary by Sections Cross-Border E-commerce B2B - B2B companies have a clear revenue logic through AI tools, with promising business developments ahead [3] - Recommended stocks include Xiaoguo City (600415), Focus Technology (002315) [3] Cross-Border E-commerce B2C - Recommended stocks include Anker Innovation (300866), Ugreen Technology (301606), Zhiou Technology (301376), Jihong Co., Ltd. (002803), and Huakai Yibai (300592) [3] Other Relevant Stocks - Other recommended stocks include Konnate Optical (02276), Miniso (09896), and Sumida (600710) [3] Market Trends - Black Friday and Cyber Monday online sales reached record highs, with online spending of $11.8 billion and $14.25 billion respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 9.1% and 7.1% [8] - The average online price of consumer goods in the U.S. increased by 8%, impacting actual sales performance [8] Future Outlook - In 2026, a decrease in tariff costs is expected to improve profit margins for some cross-border e-commerce companies [8] - The report outlines a timeline of tariff adjustments throughout 2025, indicating a complex landscape for cross-border trade [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4]. Core Insights - Coal prices are rapidly declining, and the enthusiasm for wind power development is higher than that for photovoltaic (PV) projects [2][7]. - The utility sector is expected to continue to be a valuable dividend asset, with low-priced utility assets worth attention [7]. - The report suggests that the profitability of the thermal power industry is expected to continue to grow, with improved commercial models [7]. Summary by Sections Coal Market - Coal prices have decreased across the board, with the Qinhuangdao port Shanxi Q5500 thermal coal price at 785 RMB/ton as of December 5, 2025, down 31 RMB/ton (3.8%) week-on-week [7][13]. - Coal inventories at ports and power plants are rising, leading to increased pressure on coal traders to lower prices [7][23]. Renewable Energy - The report anticipates a slowdown in new PV installations in 2026, while wind power investment enthusiasm is expected to be stronger due to higher project profitability [7]. - The report highlights that the current stage of wind power projects has higher returns compared to PV, leading to greater investment interest in wind energy [7]. Utility Sector Performance - The utility sector index rose by 0.1% but underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.3% [38]. - The report indicates that the utility sector is still a favorable long-term investment option, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks within the thermal power sector, including Huadian International, Guodian Power, and Huaneng International, among others [7]. - For hydropower, it suggests focusing on high-quality river basin projects, with specific stocks mentioned [7]. - The report also notes the long-term growth certainty in nuclear power and suggests companies like China General Nuclear Power [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The potential introduction of supportive policies for humanoid robots in the U.S. is expected to accelerate industry growth marginally. The U.S. government is considering a robot executive order in 2026, which could inject new momentum into the humanoid robot sector [7]. - The rapid development of artificial intelligence in the U.S. is reflected in the government's push for robotics. The "Genesis Project" initiated by President Trump aims to leverage AI to transform scientific research and accelerate discoveries [7]. - Despite ambitious goals, funding for robotics development in the U.S. may be limited. The SCSP has submitted a memorandum to address key technology issues, but the expected support may not be substantial due to the underdeveloped domestic robotics industry [7]. - Leading companies in the robotics sector are likely to benefit more from limited policy support. Tesla is highlighted as a key player with technological advantages in humanoid robots, presenting investment opportunities within its supply chain [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the mechanical equipment industry, focusing on the robotics sector and its potential growth driven by U.S. policy changes [2][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities related to Tesla's supply chain, with specific recommendations to buy stocks of Top Group (601689), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050), Wuzhou New Spring (603667), and Zhenyu Technology (300953) [3].