焦煤价格如期反弹，动力煤关注港口库存 拐点 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251215-20251221） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）当前焦煤价格正处于下游季节性补库带动下偏强的时期，建议关注焦煤 板块的配置机会；（2）动力煤需要重点关注港口库存拐点，在拐点出现后动力煤价格有 望止跌企稳，相关标的：、中国神华(601088，增持)、中煤能源(601898，增持)、陕西煤 业(601225，增持)、晋控煤业(601001，增持)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 21 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-633263 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rebound with three consecutive days of gains, but overall trading volume remained low, indicating a continued state of market fluctuation [9] - Market participants are adopting a conservative mindset as the year-end approaches, leading to reduced trading willingness and a faster rotation of sectors [9] Industry Strategy: Food and Beverage - Despite recent adjustments in the food and beverage sector, there is still fundamental support for new consumption in the short term, with stock prices showing absolute return potential [9] - The market's expectations for consumption remain relatively low, with the food and beverage sector characterized by low positions and low performance expectations, making valuations attractive [9] - It is anticipated that the food and beverage sector will transition from valuation-driven growth to performance-driven growth in 2026, with risks expected to clear by then [9] - Recommended stocks include Miaokelan Duo (600882, Buy), Anjixin Food (603345, Not Rated), and Luzhou Laojiao (000568, Buy) [9] Industry Strategy: Humanoid Robots - Significant advancements in motion control technology for humanoid robots are expected in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [9] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot highlight rapid progress in motion control capabilities [9] - The most significant challenge for mass production is the development of brain models, with expectations for faster production rates in the first half of 2026 [9] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in component production are likely to benefit from this trend [9] - Recommended stock includes Top Group (601689, Buy) [9]

谷歌 TPU 需求大增，自动驾驶产业迎来催 化，关注液冷及智驾产业链公司 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，预计谷歌 TPU 将为国内液冷产业链公司提供增量机会，能确定进入特 斯拉、Figure 等机器人配套产业链的汽零将受益，具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术 方面领先的企业将继续扩大市场份额。建议持续关注人形机器人链、液冷产业链、T 链、 华为产业链、智驾产业链公司。 液冷相关标的：英维克、银轮股份、拓普集团、三花智控、飞龙股份、川环科技等；其 他相关标的：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、赛力斯、中国重汽、宇通客车；新泉股 份、博俊科技、爱柯迪、嵘泰股份、经纬恒润、岱美股份、沪光股份、保隆科技、精锻 科技、斯菱股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛西威、科博达、星宇股份、福耀 玻璃、浙江荣泰等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 21 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxueqing@ ...

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 不考虑本次资产重组，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 2.66、2.83、 2.92 元，根据 DDM 估值模型，给予公司目标价 47.58 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；政府进一步调控大宗商品价格；公司产能利用率不及预期；海外煤价大 幅下跌导致公司煤炭售价下降。 公司主要财务信息 中国神华 601088.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 中国神华（601088.SH）事件点评 核心观点 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 343,074 | 338,375 | 310,083 | 332,096 | 343,629 | | 同比增长 (%) | -0.4% | -1.4% | -8.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 91,367 | 88,362 | 78,212 | 83,368 | 86,030 | | 同比增长 (%) | -6.9% | -3.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 152.49 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 69 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expanding its automotive electronics business and accelerating its layout in smart ports and intelligent public transport [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.30 CNY, 2.21 CNY, and 3.50 CNY respectively, reflecting slight adjustments in revenue, gross margin, and expense ratios [3]. - The company has reported a significant reduction in losses, with a net profit forecast of 36 million CNY in 2025, transitioning from losses of 217 million CNY in 2023 and 550 million CNY in 2024 [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 4,678 million CNY in 2023 to 10,115 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%, 18.5%, 24.4%, 22.8%, and 19.5% respectively [5][10]. - The company expects to achieve a gross margin of approximately 24.2% to 24.4% from 2025 to 2027, with a net profit margin improving from -4.6% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2027 [5][10]. - The net asset return (ROE) is anticipated to rise from -4.2% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][10]. Business Development and Strategy - The company is actively developing its smart driving business, with plans to mass-produce new products based on advanced chip technologies by the end of the year [9]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed to enhance domestic chip development, which is crucial for the company's platform development strategy [9]. - The company is also focusing on L4 autonomous driving technology, with products aimed at various sectors including logistics and public transport, indicating a broad market potential [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the utility sector [4] Core Views - The growth rate of electricity generation is slowing down, while coal prices continue to decline [2] - The utility sector is seen as a defensive asset with low valuations, making it attractive for investment [7] - The report emphasizes the need for further market-oriented pricing reforms to support the integration of renewable energy [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation - In November 2025, the electricity generation of large-scale power plants increased by 2.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 5.2 percentage points compared to October 2025 [10] - The growth of renewable energy generation significantly improved, with wind power increasing by 22.0% and solar power by 23.4% year-on-year [10] - The report notes that the growth of hydropower decreased but remained high, while thermal power generation turned negative with a decline of 4.2% [10] Coal Prices - Port coal prices have been declining, with the Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price at 703 RMB/ton, down 5.6% week-on-week [16] - The report indicates that high coal inventories and low demand from downstream power plants are contributing to the price drop [7] - The report anticipates that the decline in spot coal prices may gradually narrow due to improved acceptance from power plants [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on utility stocks, particularly in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power sectors, highlighting specific companies such as Huadian International and China General Nuclear Power [7] - It recommends investing in high-quality hydropower companies due to their low cost per kilowatt-hour and stable business models [7] - The report also notes the potential for growth in wind and solar sectors under carbon neutrality expectations [7] Market Performance - The utility sector index fell by 0.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.3 percentage points [41] - Among sub-sectors, hydropower, thermal power, and wind power saw declines, while solar power showed a slight increase of 0.9% [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry [5]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see rapid production scaling opportunities in the first half of 2026, driven by advancements in brain models and control technologies [3][8]. - Tesla and other leading companies have demonstrated significant progress in motion control technology for humanoid robots, indicating a shift towards mass production focus [3][8]. - The report identifies three main challenges for mass production: the development of dexterous hands, an AI brain capable of understanding the real world, and the ability to scale production efficiently, with the AI brain being the most critical challenge [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is entering a rapid development phase, with a focus on production capabilities [3][8]. - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yuzhu Robotics highlight advancements in motion control technology [8]. Production Challenges - The report outlines three key challenges for humanoid robot production: hardware improvements, breakthrough functionalities, and efficiency/cost management [8]. - The AI brain's maturity is highlighted as the most significant barrier to achieving mass production [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in component production will benefit the most from the upcoming production ramp-up [3]. - Specific investment targets include Top Group (601689, Buy), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050, Buy), Wuzhou New Spring (603667, Buy), Hengli Hydraulic (601100, Not Rated), and Zhenyu Technology (300953, Buy) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry in China [5] Core Insights - The storage supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist, providing a historic opportunity for domestic storage manufacturers to expand production and increase market share [9] - Micron Technology's recent financial performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue of $13.64 billion for Q1 FY26, representing a 57% year-over-year increase and a 21% quarter-over-quarter increase [8] - The demand for storage chips is anticipated to grow significantly due to AI inference requirements, which will drive the need for active data storage [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Domestic semiconductor equipment companies such as Zhongwei Company, Jingyi Equipment, Weidao Nano, Tuojing Technology, and Northern Huachuang are recommended for investment [3] - Companies focusing on AI storage solutions like Zhaoyi Innovation and Beijing Junzheng are also highlighted as potential investment targets [3] - Other beneficiaries of storage technology iterations include Lanke Technology and Lianyun Technology [3] - Domestic enterprise SSD and storage solution providers such as Jiangbolong, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, and Lenovo Group are noted as relevant investment opportunities [3] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the overseas storage giants are focusing on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which may limit the supply of general storage, thus prolonging the current storage boom [8] - The HBM market is projected to reach a size of $100 billion by 2028, two years earlier than previously anticipated [8] - The competition among major storage companies in the HBM market is intense, which may affect their capital expenditure allocation [8] Technological Developments - Hefei Changxin and Yangtze Memory Technologies are expected to enhance their market share in the DRAM and NAND sectors due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [8] - Changxin is set to launch DDR5 products by November 2025, achieving competitive performance metrics [8] - Yangtze Memory's self-developed Xtacking architecture is expected to significantly advance 3D NAND technology [8]

农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 宰后均重新低，去库存尾声 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20251215-20251221） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化， 助力未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标的：牧原股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498， 买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)等。（2）后周期板块，行业结构性成长趋势持续，若 本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向下游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标 的：海大集团(002311，买入)、瑞普生物(300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价 上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好，大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发 (601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科 (000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶 段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提升，龙头企业成长持续兑现，相关标 的：乖宝宠物(301498，未评级)、中宠股份(002891，未评级)、佩蒂股份(30067 ...

日期：2025年12月19日 1. 低利率环境如何演变 | 姓 | 名 | 齐晟（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 杜林（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 王静颖（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 徐沛翔（证券分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮 | 箱 | qisheng@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | dulin@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | wangjingying@orient | 邮 | 箱 | xupeixiang@orientse | | | | m.cn | | | m.cn | | | sec.com.cn | | | c.com.cn | | 电 | 话 | 18930809670 | 电 | 话 | 17611226630 | 电 | 话 | 15674975413 | 电 | 话 | 13317003002 | | | 执业证书编号 | S0860521120001 | | 执业证书编号 | S0860522080004 | ...