证券研究报告 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 共识开始凝聚，共同见证历史 —有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 52 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 铜精矿长单加工费敲定，冶炼端悲观预期 | 2025-12-26 | | --- | --- | | 靴子 ...

上行趋势稳固，收官红盘可期 投资策略 | 定期报告 策略周报 20251228 研究结论 我们上周认为市场有望开启震荡上行，上上周认为是年前行情较好的布局时点，市 场走势两次都符合我们的预判，短期市场能够影响预期的重大事件不多，下周三个 交易日后即将收官，指数在八连阳之后可能会有一些小颠簸，但不改上行趋势稳 固，预期收官战有望以红盘落定。 ⚫ 行业比较：布局中盘蓝筹 从 2023 年 3 月到现在，科技+红利两端走的行情已成市场一致性预期。展望未 来，我们认为风险风格两端走行情走向尾声，未来的投资机会在中等风险特征的股 票，沉寂四年的中盘蓝筹行情有望再度崛起。 ⚫ 行业配置：周期、消费和制造板块 投资机会在中等风险特征的股票，三条主线掘金中盘蓝筹： 1)周期板块科技赋能叠加供给约束，定价重估进行时。关注科技领域的新材料、化 工、金属等供需格局改善的品种以及农业品等。 2）消费板块沉寂多年正迎拐点。消费板块普遍股价超跌，供给收缩，股价有望上 行。关注科技相关的消费、新消费和传统医药消费等。 3）制造板块从纯粹的"故事炒作"转向"订单和收入"的验证。关注不断有业绩验证预 期的通信、电子、电力设备和机械设备。 ⚫ ...

年末煤炭供应显著收缩，动力煤短期有望 止跌 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251222-20251228） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）在港口逐步去库的背景下，动力煤价格有望止跌，焦煤价格短期在季节 性补库的背景下走势偏强；（2）近期煤炭板块持续回调，市场对煤价预期较为悲观，短 期煤价止跌有望带来板块情绪的回暖，建议关注板块止跌反弹的机会。 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 焦煤价格如期反弹，动力煤关注港口库存 | 2025-12-21 | | --- | -- ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡有韵，结构为舟 朝闻道 20251229 市场策略 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时 风格策略 年末注意优选结构，中期择时中盘蓝筹 行业策略 公用事业：电力商品属性的定价有望为行业提估值 主题策略 智能驾驶：产业链暖风频吹，投资者心花渐开 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧、海外贸易摩擦加剧等风险 ⚫ 指数连阳反弹，再次站上 3900 点。自 8 月下旬以来，上涨指数围绕 3900 上下 100 多点震荡的格局较为清晰。微观筹码看，指数上有压力，下有半年线附近的支撑。 在指数未突破区间上下沿之前，保持震荡思维和轮动思路，以小周期的择时节奏把 握区间超额。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：沪深 300ETF（510300） ⚫ 立足中期视角，兼顾短期择时，在估值适中、机构低配、波动率收敛的板块和行业 中选择景气边际改善的中盘蓝筹品种，关注全球供给重塑及金融属性加持的周期 品、能以业绩验证预期的先进制造以及筹码结构得以优化的电子行业。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：中证现金流 ETF（159235）、有色 ETF（159980）、黄金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - Electricity consumption growth remains high, but there are signs of pressure on long-term contract electricity prices due to falling coal prices and high inventory levels [7] - The utility sector is viewed as a defensive asset, with low-priced utility assets worth attention [7] - The report suggests that the electricity market will gradually allow for better pricing of electricity attributes to support the complex new power system [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In November 2025, total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, a recovery from October's 4.2 percentage point decline, with a cumulative growth of 1.0% for January to November 2025 [10] - The growth rates for different sectors in November 2025 were: primary industry +7.9%, secondary industry +4.4%, tertiary industry +10.3%, and residential consumption +9.8% [10] - The report anticipates that December 2025 will see electricity consumption growth maintain around 5-6% due to ongoing growth in sectors like charging services and information technology [10] Electricity Prices - From December 19 to December 26, 2025, the average clearing price in Guangdong's electricity market was 308 RMB/MWh, up by 3.9% year-on-year [21] - In contrast, Shanxi's average market price dropped to 179 RMB/MWh, down 54.9% year-on-year [21] Coal Prices - Port coal prices continue to decline, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 672 RMB/ton, down 4.4% week-on-week [24] - The report notes a divergence in pit coal prices, with Shanxi's Q5500 coal price stable at 550 RMB/ton, while Inner Mongolia's price fell by 1.7% [24] Hydrology - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level was 171 meters, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 meters, while inflow rates decreased by 13.7% year-on-year [31] Market Performance - The utility sector index rose by 0.8% but underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.9% [40] - Among sub-sectors, gas showed the highest weekly increase at +2.6%, while hydropower decreased by 0.8% [42] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on utility stocks, particularly in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, citing improved business models and growth potential [7]

Economic Growth Insights - The US GDP for Q3 2025 showed a significant growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%[7] - Personal consumption contributed 3.5% to GDP growth, up from 2.5% in the previous quarter, indicating strong consumer spending[7] - The final sales of domestic private purchasers recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, reflecting resilient domestic demand despite economic uncertainties[7] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a slight contraction of -0.3%, with non-residential construction and residential investment declining by -6.3% and -5.1%, respectively[7] - AI-related investments remain a key driver, with equipment and intellectual property investments growing at 5.4%, although this is a significant drop from earlier in the year[7] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is estimated at approximately 0.6% for Q3, but the growth rate is expected to slow down[7] Employment and Economic Risks - The job market shows signs of significant weakness, with a three-month moving average of new jobs at only 22,000, indicating a potential recession[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a level historically associated with economic downturns[7] - Risks of inflation rebounding and the economy slipping into recession are highlighted as major concerns for future growth[4]

农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 生猪再现结构性短缺，悲观预期有望修复 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20251222-20251228） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化， 助力未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标的：牧原股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498， 买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)等。（2）后周期板块，行业结构性成长趋势持续，若 本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向下游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标 的：海大集团(002311，买入)、瑞普生物(300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价 上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好，大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发 (601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科 (000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶 段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提升，龙头企业成长持续兑现，相关标 的：乖宝宠物(301498，未评级)、中宠股份(002891，未评级)、佩蒂股份 ...

Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced seven consecutive days of gains, indicating a market that is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, although the overall increase remains limited [2][7] - The report suggests a focus on structural investments rather than index-heavy strategies, recommending broad-based ETFs that reflect mid-cap blue-chip characteristics [7] - Key sectors identified for investment include advanced manufacturing, non-bank financials, technology, and cyclical industries, which are expected to attract incremental capital and serve as the backbone of the market during this upward trend [7] Industry Strategy - The coal industry is highlighted, with coking coal prices expected to rebound due to seasonal inventory replenishment by downstream steel and coking plants, which is anticipated to support prices in the short term [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the coking coal sector for investment opportunities, particularly as downstream purchasing behavior shifts from a wait-and-see approach to active procurement [7] - Recommended stocks in the coal sector include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001), both rated for increased holdings [7] Thematic Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is noted for significant advancements in motion control technology, with mass production expected to accelerate in 2026 [5][7] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot showcase rapid progress in humanoid robot capabilities, indicating a shift in market focus towards actual production rather than just technological advancements [7] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend, with Top Group (601689) recommended for purchase [7]

风险提示 宏观经济波动影响下游用铜需求风险、铜冶炼"反内卷"措施落地不及预期风险、中期 铜冶炼扩产进度超预期风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 26 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 铜精矿长单加工费敲定，冶炼端悲观预期 靴子落地 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 | 金银新高背后，投资节奏或随隐波而分 | 2025-12-24 | | --- | --- | | 化：——黄金行业动态跟踪 | | | 金铜铝铁权益滞后商品的现象或将改变： | 2025-12-22 | | —有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 51 | ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 沪指七连阳，中盘蓝筹强者恒强 朝闻道 20251226 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 市场策略 沪指七连阳，轻指数重结构 风格策略 中盘蓝筹强者恒强 行业策略 煤炭：焦煤价格如期反弹，关注配置机会 主题策略 人形机器人：推进大脑进化，量产爬坡有望加速 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓、海外煤价大幅下跌、订单执行效果低于预期、产品降价风险、研发进度及产业化不及 预期等。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 26 日 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时： 朝闻道 20251224 2025-12-23 沪指三连阳，依旧震荡：朝闻道 20251222 2025-12-21 冬藏蓄势等贝塔，防守亦有阿尔法：朝闻 道 20251217 2025-12-16 ⚫ 本周沪深三大指数四连阳，沪指七连阳，但整体涨幅有限，呈现温和放量状态。站 在当下我们认为随着上 ...