公司研究 | 季报点评 预计盈利稳定增长，机器人业务稳步推进 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 2.54、3.22、4.02 亿元（原为 2.56、3.21、 3.98 亿元，略调整毛利率及费用率等），维持可比公司 25 年 PE 平均估值 54 倍， 目标价 48.6 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 汽车电控制动配套量低于预期、轻量化产品配套量低于预期、智能驾驶产品配套量低于 预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,020 | 2,352 | 2,889 | 3,404 | 4,032 | | 同比增长 (%) | 30.7% | 16.4% | 22.8% | 17.8% | 18.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 157 | 202 | 296 | 376 | 470 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.7% | 28.3% | 46.6% | 27.1% | 25.1% | | ...

威高骨科 688161.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 盈利能力稳健，PRP 产品表现亮眼 —威高骨科 2025 年三季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 25 年三季报，我们维持 2025-2027 年每股收益预测为 0.79/0.87/0.97 元，根据 可比公司给予 26 年 49 倍 PE，对应目标价 42.63 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示 骨科集采政策超预期、渠道开拓和新业务拓展不及预期、费用改善不及预期等风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,284 | 1,453 | 1,652 | 1,860 | 2,072 | | 同比增长 (%) | -37.6% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 11.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 131 | 272 | 373 | 414 | 466 | | 同比增长 (%) | -81.5% | 107.6% | 37.2% | 11.0% | ...

威高骨科 688161.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 公司主要财务信息 盈利能力稳健，PRP 产品表现亮眼 —威高骨科 2025 年三季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 25 年三季报，我们维持 2025-2027 年每股收益预测为 0.79/0.87/0.97 元，根据 可比公司给予 26 年 49 倍 PE，对应目标价 42.63 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示 骨科集采政策超预期、渠道开拓和新业务拓展不及预期、费用改善不及预期等风险。 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,284 | 1,453 | 1,652 | 1,860 | 2,072 | | 同比增长 (%) | -37.6% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 11.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 131 | 272 | 373 | 414 | 466 | | 同比增长 (%) | -81.5% | 107.6% | 37.2% | 11.0% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 32 yuan, based on a 16x PE valuation for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's gold production has significantly increased quarter-on-quarter, leading to an optimistic outlook for performance improvement [2][8]. - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.44, 2.00, and 2.60 yuan respectively, reflecting a positive adjustment from previous estimates [3]. - The report highlights a stable production cost for gold, with a slight increase in overall costs but a decrease in domestic mining costs [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 7,221 million yuan in 2023 to 18,638 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.7% [4][10]. - Operating profit is expected to rise from 1,208 million yuan in 2023 to 7,773 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 804 million yuan in 2023 to 4,934 million yuan in 2027, with a notable increase in profit margins [4][10]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 32.6% in 2023 to 53.4% in 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [4][10].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is in a slow bull phase, currently experiencing a typical consolidation period, with the index expected to fluctuate around 3900 points within a range of 100 points [9] - There is a notable shift in capital flow from mid-risk technology growth stocks to high-dividend and micro-cap stocks, suggesting a return to a "barbell strategy" [9] - The macroeconomic backdrop shows a temporary truce in trade disputes, leading to a transitional and rebalancing phase in the market, where trading factors are gaining importance [9] Market Strategy - Emphasis is placed on trading factors and capturing the rhythm of market fluctuations, particularly in the context of the current consolidation phase [3] - The report suggests that cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to outperform in the short term, driven by supply-side optimization and cost reductions [9] Industry Strategy - The banking sector shows positive fundamental signals, with improvements in net interest margins and asset quality, indicating a favorable environment for investment [5] - The report highlights the resilience of state-owned banks and the potential of high-quality, high-elasticity small and medium-sized banks as investment targets [9] Thematic Strategy - The upcoming COP30 climate conference is expected to act as a catalyst for the clean energy sector, with significant opportunities in energy transition areas such as photovoltaics, energy storage, and carbon trading [6][9] - The report identifies specific investment opportunities in companies related to clean energy and environmental protection, anticipating that these sectors will benefit from the outcomes of the climate summit [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry, particularly focusing on the potential growth of SiC/GaN power devices driven by new power supply solutions for AI data centers [6]. Core Insights - The demand for AI servers and data centers is expected to open up growth opportunities for SiC/GaN power devices, with new power supply solutions like HVDC and SST becoming increasingly important [3][11]. - The report highlights that the transition to 800V HVDC power supply architecture is anticipated to significantly enhance power efficiency and reduce operational costs for data centers [9][28]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Data Center Power Requirements - The power requirements for AI data centers are increasing, with single cabinet power rising from 5-8 kW to 20-50 kW, and potentially exceeding 100 kW [19]. - NVIDIA is promoting the transition to an 800V HVDC power supply architecture, which is expected to be fully implemented by 2027 [26][28]. 2. SST (Solid State Transformer) - SSTs are characterized by high efficiency and compact size, making them suitable for modern power supply needs [37]. - The adoption of SST technology is expected to become mainstream in future power supply solutions, significantly improving space utilization and power efficiency in data centers [47]. 3. HVDC and SST Impact on Power Semiconductors - The report indicates that HVDC and SST solutions will enhance the performance requirements for power semiconductors, creating a favorable environment for the penetration of SiC/GaN devices [56]. - The market for SiC/GaN devices is projected to reach $2.7 billion by 2030, driven by their application in 800V HVDC data center power systems [11][68]. 4. SiC/GaN Growth Potential - The report identifies key companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the growth in SiC/GaN devices, including industry leaders like Innoscience and Tianyu Advanced [3][14]. - The penetration rates for SiC and GaN in the power semiconductor market are expected to increase, with forecasts suggesting a rise in demand due to AI computing facilities [68].

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report has a neutral view on the convertible bond market, indicating that the market is expected to fluctuate around the current level, and the convertible bond trading opportunities are greater than the trend opportunities [6]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market is experiencing increased volatility at high absolute prices and valuations, with a greater likelihood of trading opportunities than trend opportunities. Institutions may increase their positions, and investors should lower their return expectations and actively allocate at low positions [6]. - Despite short - term market fluctuations, the slow - bull market under the technology theme remains unchanged [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views - The convertible bond market has increased volatility, and trading opportunities are prominent. The market is expected to be neutral, and the key to the future trend lies in the equity market. Investors should lower return expectations and seize trading opportunities [6][9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review 2.1 Market Overall Performance - Most indices closed higher, and trading volume increased significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated after breaking through 4000 points. The Northbound 50, CSI 1000, and other indices rose, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell. The power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and steel industries led the gains, while the communication, beauty care, and banking industries led the losses. The average daily trading volume increased from 523.755 billion yuan to 2.32 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week included Titan, Dazhong, Zhenhua, etc. In terms of trading activity, Dazhong, Guanzhong, Yiwei, etc. were frequently traded [12]. 2.2 Trading Volume Increased, and Low - price and High - price Convertible Bonds Performed Well - Convertible bonds performed well, following the significant upward movement of equities. The average daily trading volume slightly increased to 62.146 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.79%, the parity center increased by 0.4% to 113.2 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased by 1.0% to 18.7%. In terms of style, low - price and high - price convertible bonds performed well, while low - price and AAA - rated convertible bonds performed weakly [6][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 56.44 CNY, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 47.48 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 301.0% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 5.66 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -5.98 billion CNY, reflecting a 13.9% year-on-year improvement [10]. - The report highlights successful clinical advancements and commercialization efforts, with multiple new clinical trials set to commence and ongoing collaborations expected to enhance revenue streams [10]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with a downward revision for 2025 revenue and R&D expenses, while 2026 revenue and management expenses have been increased. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are -7.35 billion CNY, -6.55 billion CNY, and -2.91 billion CNY respectively [3][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 747 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 274.1%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 1.066 billion CNY, growing at 42.6% [5]. - The company is expected to incur a net loss of 735 million CNY in 2025, improving to a loss of 655 million CNY in 2026, and further narrowing to 291 million CNY by 2027 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to be 93.5% in 2025, with a net margin of -98.4% [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is estimated at 225.55 billion CNY based on discounted cash flow valuation [11].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 | 以中短信用为基本盘，二永做波段：信用 | 2025-11-03 | | --- | --- | | 债市场周观察 | | | 止盈压力缓释，关注转债交易性机会：可 | 2025-10-28 | | 转债市场周观察 | | | 关注存单利率变化：固定收益市场周观察 | 2025-10-21 | 央行恢复国债买卖，不只是一次性利好 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 04 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.c ...

澜起科技 688008.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 DDR 产品迭代推动业绩同比高增长 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益为 1.87/2.99/4.00 元（原预测为 1.98/2.82/3.76 元， 主要调整了营业收入、毛利率及费用率等假设），维持可比公司 25 年平均 80 倍 PE 估值，给予 149.60 元目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 DDR5 市场份额提升不及预期；新产品进展不及预期；公司盈利不及预期对估值产生负 面影响。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,286 | 3,639 | 5,546 | 7,602 | 9,846 | | 同比增长 (%) | -38% | 59% | 52% | 37% | 30% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 472 | 1,413 | 2,254 | 3,606 | 4,817 | | 同比增长 (%) | -67% | 199% | ...