Report Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The core issue in the bond market lies in demand rather than supply. In early 2026, the bond market continued to adjust. Although there was a high - volume supply of government bonds and a lengthening trend in local bond issuance terms, the rapid post - New Year loosening of the capital market and the "bear - steep" adjustment of the curve indicated that supply was not the core contradiction. Also, the insurance sector's adjustment of its local bond allocation term structure offset the impact of the change in local bond issuance terms [6][13]. - The root cause is the active contraction of bond investment by institutions. Since 2025, banks have been actively reducing bond investment, similar to the situation in 2016 - 2017, but the current reason is the low interest rate, which makes the return unable to cover the cost. Fund and fixed - income asset management products have been continuously redeemed, leading to large - scale bond sales [6][23]. - To solve the demand - side problem, three aspects can be considered: reigniting the market's expectation of a significant interest rate decline, the central bank taking further steps in directly purchasing long - term bonds, and increasing the necessity of strongly stimulating the economy to promote banks' rapid re - expansion of their balance sheets and spill - over into bond investment [6]. - In the short term, the overall demand problem in the bond market is difficult to solve. It is advisable to focus on structural demand changes, especially in wealth management products. Wealth management products may gradually shift to slightly longer - duration products for returns. Attention can be paid to the riding value of 2 - 3Y urban investment bonds, 1 - 2Y industrial bonds, and appropriate credit picking of high - quality urban and rural commercial banks for sub - perpetual bonds within 3Y, and trading opportunities for 3 - 4Y sub - perpetual bonds [6][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Some believe the bond market adjustment in 2026 is due to supply expansion, with the first - week government bond net issuance reaching a new high and a lengthening trend in local bond issuance terms [6][10]. - However, the core problem is on the demand side. The post - New Year capital loosening and "bear - steep" curve adjustment show that supply is not the core contradiction. Also, the insurance sector's adjustment of its local bond allocation term structure has kept the spread between local and national bonds stable [13][15]. - Institutions are actively reducing bond investment. Since 2025, banks' bond investment contraction is similar to that in 2016 - 2017, but currently due to low interest rates. Fund and fixed - income asset management products are being redeemed, leading to bond sales [23]. - To solve the demand - side problem, consider reigniting interest rate decline expectations, central bank action on long - bond purchases, and economic stimulus [23]. - In the short term, focus on wealth management products. They may shift to longer - duration products for returns, and attention can be paid to specific bond types [27]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market - **Release of December Financial Data**: This week, China will release December financial data, and the US will release December CPI and other data [30]. - **Interest - Rate Bond Issuance**: The expected issuance volume of interest - rate bonds this week is around 427.2 billion yuan, including 207 billion yuan of national bonds, 70.2 billion yuan of local bonds, and about 150 billion yuan of policy - bank financial bonds, which is at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years [30][31]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Reverse Repurchase Net Withdrawal**: Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 165.5 billion yuan. After the New Year, the reverse repurchase maturity volume was high, and the capital market had a seasonal volume increase and price increase, with the increase in price being controllable [34][35]. - **Interest - Rate Adjustment at the Beginning of the Year**: The new fund fee regulations before New Year's Day were beneficial to bond - fund liabilities, but the market quickly took profits after the interest - rate decline. Concerns about government bond supply and the strong start of the equity market suppressed bond - market sentiment. Finally, the yields of most interest - rate bonds increased, with only the 1 - year national bond yield falling by 4.9bp, and the 3 - year national bond yield rising the most, by about 7.8bp [49]. 4. High - Frequency Data - **Production Side**: There was a divergence in operating rates. The blast - furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. In late December, the daily average crude - steel output had a wider year - on - year decline of 14.8% [52]. - **Demand Side**: The year - on - year growth of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales improved rapidly. In the week of December 31, the year - on - year growth of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales were 45% and 17% respectively. The year - on - year decline in the commercial - housing transaction area narrowed. In the week of January 4, the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area had a seasonal decline and a large year - on - year decline. The commercial - housing sales area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased to 2.75 million square meters, with a narrowed year - on - year decline of 9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 0.5% and 4.2% respectively [52]. - **Price Side**: Crude - oil prices recovered, copper and aluminum prices increased, coal prices diverged, the mid - stream building - material composite price index increased slightly, and downstream vegetable and fruit prices decreased while pork prices increased. The rebar inventory decreased to a low level of 283 tons, and the futures price increased by 0.6% [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of CNY 204 billion, CNY 225 billion, and CNY 259 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The valuation for 2026 is set at 18x PE, leading to a target price of HKD 103.20 per share [3][10]. - The launch of the KOL 2.6 action control feature has significantly increased the company's influence in overseas markets, with notable download spikes in countries like South Korea and India [9]. - The company anticipates a steady revenue growth of 9% in 2026, reaching CNY 154.9 billion, with advertising and other business segments expected to grow by 10% and 21%, respectively [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue (CNY million): 113,470 (2023), 126,898 (2024), 142,053 (2025), 154,873 (2026), 167,518 (2027) [4]. - Adjusted Net Profit (CNY million): 6,396 (2023), 15,335 (2024), 18,287 (2025), 21,457 (2026), 24,770 (2027) [4]. - Earnings per Share (CNY): 1.48 (2023), 3.56 (2024), 4.26 (2025), 5.00 (2026), 5.77 (2027) [4]. - Gross Margin (%): 50.6% (2023), 54.6% (2024), 55.1% (2025), 56.3% (2026), 56.8% (2027) [4].

政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | | | | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 2026-01-08 | 债基费率新规落地后短二永或迎补涨行 | | 情：2026 年 1 月小品种策略 | | | 情：2026 年 1 月小品种策略 | | | --- ...

核心观点 ⚫ 我们不同于市场的见解： 房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 期待更优力度的政策 我们认为房地产政策的数量不重要，重要的是政策的力度。目前看来，两类政策会 有作用：一是降息、贴息类影响购房资金成本的政策；二是收储、拆迁、以及救助 负债的企业和居民主体等直接投放大量资金的政策。《求是》新年刊文，提出政策要 一次给足，这个提法与我们的观点不谋而合，有理由期待在 2026年看到更有力度的 政策组合。 ⚫ 具体事件评述： 《求是》开年刊文强调要改善和稳定房地产市场预期，建议政策要一次性给足、做 好供给管理等。我们认为这对于房地产市场止跌回稳、新旧模式转换至关重要。 开年定调"改善和稳定房地产市场预期"。文章强调房地产的金融属性、在国民经 济和居民财富中的重要地位，以及预期管理对稳定房市的关键作用。在市场已持续 较长时间量价下行的背景下，文章刊发的时间点和内容体现 2026年稳定房地产市场 预期的迫切性。 政策逻辑转型——从"渐进调控"到"精准发力、一次性到位"。文章中提出，要 积极主动作为，以更有力更精准的举措，持续改善和稳定房地产市场预期，尽可能 缩短调整时间，主要强调三点：保持政策力度、做好供给管理、 ...

转债量价齐升，估值压力再起 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 12 日 ⚫ 上周转债市场在正股带动下同样放量上行，尽管转债估值已然偏高，但高价高估转 债依然强势，百元溢价率突破前期 30%-34%的震荡区间，或将缓慢回调。在性价比 转债稀缺的环境下，增量资金只能流向存续期确定性强的转债。 ⚫ 从当前绝对价格和估值水平看，转债未来上行空间有限，但增量需求预计还能为转 债提供一定支撑，在个券估值已经全面高估的情况下，我们建议关注次新券及放弃 赎回的转债，交易性机会大于趋势性机会。 ⚫ 上周沪指实现 16 连阳并站上 4100 点，在外资流入、国内中长期资金加大权益资产 配置占比的情况下，成交额突破三万亿，商业航天、ai 算力、应用、小金属等板块 继续强势。前期市场猜测的回踩没有出现，元旦后市场延续强势向上突破，观察 A 股历史上几次成交突破三万亿的情况，天量并不意味着见顶，但追高题材或应谨 慎。我们认为市场上行不会一蹴 ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 研究结论 | 权益推动下转债突破前高，估值冲高回 | 2025-12-30 | | --- | --- | | 落：可转债市场周观察 | | | 债市波动加大：固定收益市场周观察 | 2025-12-23 | | 风格反转，年底或有抢跑可能：可转债市 | 2025-12-23 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 12 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the retail industry, indicating a potential return exceeding 5% relative to market benchmarks [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are rapidly evolving, with 2026 expected to mark a commercial turning point for the industry. Key developments include significant IPOs and strategic acquisitions in the AI sector, which are anticipated to drive growth in retail [8]. - The integration of AI in cross-border e-commerce and e-commerce services is emphasized, with specific companies identified as beneficiaries of this trend. The report suggests that AI tools can enhance operational efficiency across various segments of the retail industry [3][8]. Summary by Sections AI and Cross-Border E-commerce - AI is expected to create new traffic entry points for B2B platforms, transitioning from SEO to GEO. Companies like Xiaogoods City and Focus Technology are leveraging AI tools to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [3][8]. - Xiaogoods City has over 30,000 merchants utilizing AI applications, with usage exceeding 1 billion times [8]. - Focus Technology reported a membership penetration rate of over 50% for its AI services [8]. AI and E-commerce Services - The report notes that e-commerce platforms are shifting from SEO to GEO, with third-party (TP) companies gaining advantages through AI tools that analyze consumer preferences [8]. - Companies such as Qingmu Technology and Yiwang Yichuang are developing proprietary technologies to support AI applications in e-commerce operations [8]. - Qingmu Technology has created a suite of tools to adapt to evolving AI technologies, while Yiwang Yichuang is building a dedicated team to enhance its competitive edge in the market [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies does not alter the competitive advantage of China's chemical industry. The cancellation of export tax rebates for various chemical products is expected to increase export costs, reflecting China's energy and waste treatment capabilities. Despite theoretical concerns about competitiveness, high energy-consuming products like PVC lack global expansion capacity, and the price increase due to VAT will not significantly change competitive dynamics [2][7] - Market rumors do not change the profit recovery opportunities in the industry. Reports of regulatory discussions regarding monopolistic risks have led to stock price corrections for leading chemical companies. However, the industry is still in a self-rescue phase, with production cuts not aimed at achieving monopolistic profits but rather at facilitating recovery from previous losses [2][7] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended leading companies in the refining industry include Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), and Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy). The report also highlights recovery opportunities in various chemical sub-industries, such as MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) and PVC-related companies like Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), and Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated). In the phosphoric chemical sector, companies like Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated) and Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) are noted for their growth potential driven by rapid energy storage growth. In the oxalic acid sector, attention is drawn to Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

国内产能、海外进口均有望收缩，板块中 长期预期改善 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20260105-20260111） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：煤炭长期基本面预期改善，关注板块配置价值。（1）尽管市场仍对煤炭行业 3-5 月的季节性淡季价格走势有一定担忧，但考虑到国内产能有望核减、进口煤数量有望 收缩，我们认为煤炭板块底部大周期的底部已基本探明，后续有望开启长周期向上的行 情；（2）同时短期来看，动力煤、焦煤价格均已止跌反弹，煤炭板块情绪有望实现向上 修复，带来短期板块止跌反弹的机会。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 11 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientse ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are strengthening, and the expansion trend is expected to continue. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April, leading to a temporary stabilization in the financial attributes. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff case may significantly increase price volatility. With supportive policies both domestically and internationally, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged, and the expansion trend is likely to persist [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Strengthening Liquidity Expectations, Continued Expansion Trend - The U.S. unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with non-farm employment increasing by 50,000, below the market expectation of 73,000. This indicates a new equilibrium in the labor market, with both supply and demand growth slowing [12]. 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 8.56% in the week ending January 9, ranking fourth among all industries [19]. The sector's performance outpaced major indices, with small metals showing the highest gains [20]. 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PPI, as well as China's manufacturing PMI, which stood at 50.1% in December, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [30][34]. 4. Precious Metals: Increased Volatility Expected Ahead of Tariff Ruling - Gold prices increased, with SHFE gold rising by 2.96% to 1,006.48 CNY per gram and COMEX gold up by 3.59% to 4,473.00 USD per ounce. Silver also saw significant gains, with SHFE silver up by 9.70% to 18,731.00 CNY per kilogram [13][14][27]. 5. Copper: Continued Weakness, Increased Volatility from Tariff Disruptions - Copper prices rose, with SHFE copper increasing by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY per ton and LME copper up by 4.24% to 12,998 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues to affect the market, with copper concentrate treatment charges declining [16][26]. 6. Aluminum: Price Improvement, Export Competition May Increase Mismatch - Aluminum prices increased, with SHFE aluminum rising by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY per ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic aluminum inventory and stable production capacity [15][78].