建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 出海建材企业仍是配置首选 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 | 涂料龙头经营改善，配置成长正当时：— | 2025-08-29 | | --- | --- | | —建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 新藏铁路影响深远，区域水泥投资机会可 | 2025-08-26 | | 期：——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 玻纤仍需"反内卷"，落实效果或可期待： | 2025-07-17 | | ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 国内建材市场需求仍然低迷。根据国家统计局数据，2025 年 1-9 月，我国房屋施工 面积 64.9 亿平方米，同比下降 9.4%；房屋新开工面积 4.5 亿平方米，同比下降 18.9%；房屋竣工面积 3.1 亿平方米，同比下降 15.3%。从相关数据可看出，房地 产领域对于建材需求仍在下滑。与此对应，根据水泥网数据，同期我国水泥产量为 12.6 亿吨，同比下降 5.2%。由此可见在需求整体压制下 ...

渝农商行 601077.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 信贷有力投放，资产质量改善 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化 渝农商行 25Q3 财报点评 核心观点 25Q3 净息差为 1.59%，较 25H1 仅-1BP，我们测算生息资产收益率较 25H1 仅小幅 下行 2bp，计息负债成本率-3BP。渝农商行存款定期化特征较为明显，后续负债成 本改善空间依然乐观，息差韧性十足。 ⚫ 资产质量改善，核心指标优化。截至 25Q3，渝农商行不良贷款率环比-5bp 至 1.12%，拨备覆盖率提升 9pct 至 365%，核心指标明显优化，风险抵补能力充足。 渝农商行加大不良确认和风险处置力度，为后续经营腾挪空间，或短期扰动利润表 现，展望后续，资产质量有望延续改善趋势。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根 据 25Q3 财报数据，预测公司 25/26/27 年 归 母 净 利 润 同 比 增 速 为 5.7%/8.3%/8.5%， BVPS 为 12.05/13.12/14.29 元（原预测值为 11.85/12.70/13.62 元，主要是适度调整息差及非息收入预期），当前股价对应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [5] Core Views - There is a significant outflow from both active and passive funds in the banking sector, while southbound funds continue to flow in [2][8] - The active equity funds have reduced their holdings in the banking sector, with a notable shift towards growth sectors, particularly technology [2] - The report highlights a decrease in the concentration of holdings in the banking sector among passive funds [8][21] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - Active equity funds reduced their holdings in A-share banks by 332.83 billion yuan, with a current market value of 307.96 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 3.04 percentage points to 1.85% [2][11] - Passive funds also saw a decline in their holdings, with a decrease of 491.64 billion yuan, leading to a total market value of 840.97 billion yuan, down 5.71 percentage points [8][11] - Northbound funds experienced a significant outflow, with a reduction of 69.75 billion shares, resulting in a holding ratio decrease of 0.51 percentage points to 1.32% [8][20] Stock Performance - The report notes that high-growth city commercial banks and certain quality joint-stock banks were significantly reduced in holdings, while banks with high earnings elasticity or low valuations, such as Qilu, Minsheng, Xi'an, and Ruifeng, saw increased investments [3][4] - The top five stocks by heavy holdings include China Merchants Bank (0.43%), Ningbo Bank (0.25%), Chengdu Bank (0.17%), Hangzhou Bank (0.15%), and Jiangsu Bank (0.12%) [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals, such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), and Hangzhou Bank (600926, Buy) [4] - It also recommends attention to state-owned large banks with good defensive value, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) and Agricultural Bank of China (601288, Not Rated) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 119.00 CNY based on a 6.10x PS multiple for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous profit improvement, with AI presenting new growth opportunities [2]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 5.125 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.62%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -0.081 billion CNY, up 86.10% [8]. - The company is implementing an "AI FIRST" R&D strategy, enhancing product differentiation and competitiveness through AI technologies [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 82.34 billion CNY, 91.66 billion CNY, and 103.40 billion CNY respectively, with expected growth rates of 9.5%, 11.3%, and 12.8% [3][4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to stabilize around 61.2% to 61.6% from 2025 to 2027, while net profit margins are expected to improve from 4.0% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2027 [4][11]. - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to grow significantly, with an increase from 357 million CNY in 2025 to 650 million CNY in 2027, representing a growth rate of 68.8% in 2025 [4][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising demand for localized AI deployment solutions, having launched innovative products that integrate AI capabilities [8]. - The report highlights the company's strong product innovation capabilities and its comprehensive channel advantages, which are expected to drive growth in the localized deployment market [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with an updated target price of 94.72 CNY, up from the previous 91.84 CNY [4][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown a continued structural prosperity in its product lines, particularly in konjac products and egg products, which have outperformed the industry average. The optimization of channel structures has led to improved cost efficiency, contributing to a significant profit increase [12]. - The company's gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year to 31.6% in Q3 2025, attributed to product structure optimization and stable cost conditions. The net profit margin also increased by 3.2 percentage points to 15.6% [12]. - The company is expected to benefit from structural dividends due to its strong channel and capacity adjustment capabilities, as well as its innovative mindset. The current product reserves are robust, and the company is in a phase of increasing market share in quantitative circulation and discount channels [12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The updated earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.96 CNY, 3.50 CNY, and 4.19 CNY, respectively, reflecting adjustments based on short-term operational conditions and external environments [4][10]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 6,055 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The operating profit is expected to reach 910 million CNY, with a growth rate of 26.5% [10][12]. - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 808 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 26.2% [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 23.70 CNY based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in Q3, with revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 20% and 43% year-on-year, respectively. The growth was driven primarily by the e-commerce business, which is expected to continue to be a key growth driver [10]. - The strategy of focusing on high-tech, high-functionality flagship products has proven effective, contributing to the strong performance in Q3. The company has optimized its product mix and procurement strategies, leading to improved gross margins [10]. - The outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of steady growth in the upcoming quarters and years, supported by a strategic focus on technology products and enhanced brand investment [10]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.685 billion CNY, 5.139 billion CNY, and 5.485 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [3][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are revised to 1.58 CNY, 1.79 CNY, and 1.94 CNY, respectively, up from earlier forecasts [3][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 43.2% in 2025, with net profit margins projected to be 8.9% [3][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 416 million CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [3][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 12.9% in 2025, indicating a solid profitability outlook [3][10]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 5.305 billion CNY, with a total share count of 26.263 million shares [5].

宏观经济 | 专题报告 海外迎接四季度政策宽松窗口期 ——海外札记 20251027 经济基本面不确定性。 关税政策不确定性。 降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 研究结论 1）由于政府关门，10 月 CPI 可能无法发布。美国政府 10 月 1 日关门以来，资金中 断、强制休假导致劳工统计局调查人员无法进行实地数据收集和处理工作，意味着 美国政府很可能将无法发布 10 月份的通胀数据。 2）10 月 FOMC 会议在 28 日-29 日举行，会前没有就业数据发布，只能依靠替代性 指标观察目前的就业市场情况，ADP 数据显示 9 月美国私人部门就业人数萎缩 3.2 万人，近 4 个月中第三次新增就业为负，远不及市场预期，职位空缺数、PMI 就业 分项等领先指标均指向当前美国就业市场面临较大的下行压力。替代指标本身较 弱，在性质上无法推动美联储作出停止降息的重要决策转折。 3）在 12 月 FOMC 会议前，如果政府结束关门，美联储可能拿到 3 个月就业数据， 这批数据的信号很可能是复杂混合的，也难以改变政策持续降息的计划路线。 4）政策的计划路线：参考 9 月点阵图，对 2025、20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 54.18 CNY based on a 42x PE ratio for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to macroeconomic impacts on downstream demand and is in a strategic transformation phase with increased expenses [2][9]. - The core products maintain competitive advantages, with the DCS system holding a 40.4% market share and the SIS system at 31.2%, both leading in their respective categories [9]. - The company is investing heavily in AI and innovative business models, with subscription revenue from software reaching 0.77 million CNY, enhancing customer retention and future revenue sustainability [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 8,620 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 30.1%. However, projections for 2025 show a decline in revenue to 8,711 million CNY, a decrease of 4.7% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,102 million CNY, reflecting a 38.1% year-on-year increase, but is expected to drop to 1,024 million CNY in 2025, a decrease of 8.3% [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable around 33.4% in 2025, while the net profit margin is expected to decrease to 11.8% [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.29 CNY, 1.49 CNY, and 1.72 CNY respectively, adjusted from previous estimates [3][10]. - The company’s operating profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,099 million CNY, down from 1,185 million CNY in 2023 [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is focusing on AI products and robotics, with new offerings like the TPT model generating 1.54 million CNY in revenue and robotics contributing 1.22 million CNY as of Q3 2025 [9]. - The report highlights the importance of subscription models in building sustainable revenue streams and increasing customer loyalty [9].

宁波银行 002142.SZ 公司研究 | 季报点评 业绩持续提速，不良生成改善 宁波银行 25Q3 财报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根 据 25Q3 财 报 数 据 ， 预 测 公 司 25/26/27 归母净利润同比增速分别为 8.5%/8.6%/8.7% ， BVPS 为 35.08 元 /38.92 元 /43.10 元 （ 原 预 测 值 为 35.01/38.75/42.82 元，主要是适度调整息差预期），当前股价对应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 0.79X/0.71X/0.64X。采用历史估值法，参考公司近三年 PB（FY1）均值，给予 25 年 0.88 倍 PB，对应合理价值 30.80 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 61,585 | 66,631 | 72,131 | 78,645 | 86,004 | | 同比增长 (%) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.52 CNY, based on a 38x PE ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.4 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.8 billion CNY, up 22.4% year-on-year [10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming release of new products in the medical aesthetics sector, with significant revenue potential from its "童颜针" and "美光针" products [10]. - The report highlights the successful progress in the development of brain-machine interface technology, indicating a substantial market opportunity in the field of neurological diseases [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6,683 million CNY, 7,424 million CNY, and 8,272 million CNY, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, 11.1%, and 11.4% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,009 million CNY in 2025, 1,297 million CNY in 2026, and 1,594 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 308.6%, 28.6%, and 22.9% respectively [5]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 62.3% in 2025, with net margins projected at 15.1% [5].