1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market remains strong this week, with only a significant correction on Tuesday. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is still strong, and the convertible bond ETF has continued to see net inflows since New Year's Day. New bonds are generally priced high recently. In the context of the equity bull - market expectation, significant pullbacks in convertible bonds are unlikely, but the future upward trend space is limited. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities, and pay attention to sub - new bonds and those whose issuers have waived the right to early redemption. Convertible bond valuations may have a slight correction under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during the adjustment [7][10]. - At the beginning of this week, the market continued its strong upward trend, with both the technology and cyclical sectors strengthening. The total market turnover approached 4 trillion yuan. There was a significant divergence in previous popular sectors, with the commercial space sector correcting sharply. After the regulatory authorities increased the margin for margin financing, the market cooled down, and the balance of margin trading and the daily turnover of the entire A - share market decreased significantly. The regulatory authorities further defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the market trend will shift from the technology + dividend sectors to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Strengthened Expectations of a Slow Bull Market, Seize Structural Opportunities - The convertible bond market is strong, with a slight correction in the hundred - yuan premium rate, but it remains at a very high level. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is strong, with continuous net inflows into convertible bond ETFs since New Year's Day and high pricing of new bonds. In the equity bull - market expectation, there will be no significant pullbacks in convertible bonds, but the upward space is limited. Structural opportunities should be focused on, and sub - new bonds and those with waived early redemption rights can be emphasized. Convertible bond valuations may correct slightly under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during adjustments [10]. - The market was strong at the beginning of the week, with technology and cyclical sectors rising. The total turnover approached 4 trillion yuan, and there was a divergence in popular sectors. After regulatory measures, the market cooled down. The regulatory authorities defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. The upward logic remains unchanged in the long - term, and the market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, shifting to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [11]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Record - High Trading Volume, Slight Decline in Valuations 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Higher, Trading Volume Increased - The equity market rose with increased volume and then declined this week. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed strongly. The Kechuang 50 index rose 2.58%, the CSI 500 index rose 2.18%, the Beizheng 50 index rose 1.58%, the CSI 1000 index rose 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.00%, the CSI 2000 index rose 0.94%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.57%, and the SSE 50 index fell 1.74%. In terms of industries, the computer, electronics, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors declined. The average daily trading volume increased significantly by 616.623 billion yuan to 3.46 trillion yuan. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Jin 05 Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Jiamei Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [15]. 3.2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, High - Price and Low - Rating Convertible Bonds Performed Well - Convertible bonds rose significantly this week. The hundred - yuan premium rate declined slightly but remained at an absolute high. The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 101.923 billion yuan, peaking at 109.860 billion yuan on Wednesday and then falling below 100 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the median conversion price increased 0.9% to 106.0 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate increased 0.8% to 33.1%. In terms of style, high - price and low - rating convertible bonds continued to lead the gains, while high - rating and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [22].

Market Strategy - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks as the preferred investment direction [2][6] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a long-term upward trend anticipated. A shift away from high-risk preferences is seen as beneficial for a healthy market environment [6] Industry Strategy: Coal - The coal industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [3][6] - Recent developments include the strategic restructuring of coal companies, such as the merger of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group, indicating a shift towards enhancing operational quality [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for the clean and efficient use of coal, emphasizing systematic and refined regulation of this primary energy source [6] - Policies aimed at replacing outdated production capacity with advanced capabilities signal a move towards innovation-driven growth in the energy sector [6] Industry Strategy: Real Estate - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more about their intensity rather than quantity, with expectations for impactful measures such as interest rate cuts and direct financial support for homebuyers and distressed companies [4][6] - Recent publications have reinforced the signals for stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, suggesting a stronger policy framework may emerge in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of returns that outperform the market benchmark by over 5% [7]. Core Insights - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more important than their quantity, with a focus on interest rate cuts and direct financial support for enterprises and residents [2]. - Recent publications in "Qiushi" emphasize the importance of managing expectations in stabilizing the real estate market, suggesting a shift from gradual measures to more decisive actions [3]. - The expectation of a stronger policy combination by 2026 is reinforced by ongoing discussions in "Qiushi" regarding real estate and urban renewal [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The minimum down payment for commercial properties has been reduced from 50% to 30%, aimed at lowering entry barriers for buyers amid significant inventory issues [4]. - The interest rate for guaranteed housing re-loans has been cut by 25 basis points to 1.25%, which narrows the gap between funding costs and net rental yields, although large-scale storage initiatives still require further policy support [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the timing and intensity of policy announcements in 2026, with a left-side layout strategy recommended [5]. - Three categories of investment targets are highlighted for potential excess returns: 1. Quality developers with low historical burdens and strong sales growth expectations [5]. 2. Commercial real estate operations, particularly shopping centers that can maintain growth in a slowing economy [5]. 3. Real estate brokerage platforms that leverage scale and brand advantages for better bargaining power [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, with domestic risk assessments steadily declining, favoring A-shares[7] - A-shares and commodities continue to show strong trends, while the mid-term uncertainty for commodities has increased, whereas A-shares and gold remain stable[42] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the social financing data showed a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan, indicating a tightening in financing demand[15] - The U.S. inflation data remains relatively mild, with the December 2025 CPI growth at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, leading to a reduced expectation for interest rate cuts[16] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory measures have been implemented to manage market expectations, including increasing the margin ratio for financing from 80% to 100% to curb excessive speculation[20] - The regulatory approach aims to stabilize the market and prevent extreme fluctuations, indicating an improvement in the governance of the capital market[20] Group 4: Asset Performance - A-shares showed a weekly decline of 0.45% for the Shanghai Composite Index, while the CSI 500 index increased by 2.18%[11] - Gold prices increased by 2.23% over the week, maintaining a strong trend alongside commodities[11]

Economic Overview - Q4 GDP growth achieved 5%, meeting the target despite a downward trend in consumption and investment[5] - December retail sales growth fell to 0.9% YoY, down from 1.3% in November, indicating persistent weakness in domestic demand[5] Consumption Insights - The cumulative retail sales growth for the year was 3.7%, with non-automotive retail sales growing at 4.4%[5] - December saw a significant drop in automotive sales growth, from over 90% in June to -1.5% by year-end, influenced by local registration policies[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative YoY decline of 3.8%, worsening from -2.6% the previous month, with real estate investment down 17.2% YoY, marking a historical low[5] - High-growth sectors include logistics and emerging technologies, with pipeline transportation investment up 36% and internet services investment up 23.8%[5] Production Performance - Industrial value-added growth in December was 5.2%, better than previous months, with high-tech industries growing 11% YoY, outperforming overall industrial growth[5] - Export delivery value for large industrial enterprises increased by 3.2% YoY in December, ending two months of negative growth[5] Future Outlook - The focus on "strong supply and weak demand" is expected to bring more domestic demand highlights in 2026, potentially boosting consumption and investment[5] - The anticipated "soft opening" for 2026 is supported by fiscal measures and local growth initiatives[5]

资产配置 | 定期报告 风偏继续向中间集中 20260119 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | --- | --- | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配置周报 | | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, specifically for the spandex sector [5]. Core Insights - The spandex industry is expected to improve as supply and demand dynamics optimize due to accelerated capacity clearance. The report highlights the potential for recovery in spandex prices and profitability for leading companies with significant domestic capacity and cost advantages [3][43]. Supply Side Summary - The spandex industry is at the end of its expansion phase, with domestic capacity increasing from 593,900 tons in 2015 to 1,420,000 tons by January 2026, with major players like Huafeng Chemical leading the market [8][20]. - Since 2019, over 200,000 tons of capacity from small and medium enterprises have been shut down, leading to a concentration of supply among leading companies [26]. - The industry has faced prolonged negative gross margins since May 2023, indicating financial difficulties for many companies, which may lead to further exits from the market [29][41]. Demand Side Summary - Spandex demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by trends in activewear and tight-fitting clothing. The apparent consumption of spandex is expected to rise from 510,000 tons in 2017 to 1,027,000 tons by 2024, with a CAGR of 10.51% [33][35]. - The demand for spandex is primarily concentrated in the apparel sector, which accounts for 76% of total usage, with applications in leisurewear, jeans, underwear, and swimwear [33][34]. Supply-Demand Balance Summary - The supply-demand balance for the domestic spandex industry is improving, with limited new capacity expected and ongoing pressure on existing capacity. The anticipated demand growth from the activewear trend is expected to support this balance [40][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with price and volume elasticity, specifically Huafeng Chemical (002064, Buy), Taihe New Materials (002254, Buy), and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (000949, Not Rated). The potential profit increases from spandex price rises are highlighted, with significant earnings boosts projected for these companies [3][43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of commercial aerospace and the progress of domestic large aircraft international certification [2] - The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has begun flight testing the C919, which is expected to accelerate the global expansion of China's commercial aviation [11] - The aerospace work conference highlighted the need to break through reusable rocket technology, which is anticipated to accelerate the development of China's commercial aerospace industry [12] - The report continues to favor investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, military trade, and new quality combat capabilities [14] Summary by Sections 1.1 EASA Flight Testing of C919 - EASA has initiated flight evaluations of the C919 in Shanghai, indicating that the aircraft's performance is good and safe, with minor adjustments needed [11] - This certification is crucial for the C919 to enter international markets and compete with Boeing and Airbus, potentially reshaping the global civil aviation market [11] 1.2 Breakthrough in Reusable Rocket Technology - The aerospace work conference emphasized the importance of advancing reusable rocket technology and developing commercial aerospace and low-altitude economies [12] - The focus on low-orbit satellite constellations is seen as a new arena for major powers in space competition, with significant implications for satellite manufacturing, launching, and operations [13] 1.3 Continued Focus on Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will enhance the military sector's value, with a focus on unmanned and anti-unmanned equipment, deep-sea technology, and combat informationization [14] - The military sector is expected to see growth from both civilian and military trade, with a list of recommended stocks for investment opportunities in various segments [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to potential price fluctuations. As industrial product prices rise, domestic downstream negative feedback is increasing, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. Recent margin increases by CME and SHFE for certain products may lead to significant short-term price volatility in industrial metals. However, the overall bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the expectation of supportive policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Liquidity expectations are reverting, which does not hinder the long-term bullish logic. Recent statements from Trump favoring Hassett for the National Economic Council position have increased market expectations for the new Fed chair. The probability of a Fed rate cut in April has dropped to 30%. This has led to potential price fluctuations in precious metals due to a weakened narrative around short-term rate cuts [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.03% in the week ending January 16, ranking third among all industries [18] 3. Precious Metals - Short-term narratives around rate cuts are faltering, leading to potential price volatility in precious metals. As of January 16, SHFE gold rose by 2.57% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 2.62% to 4,590.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves to 7,415 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 14 months [14][29] 4. Copper - The report highlights that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to increased price volatility for copper. As of January 16, SHFE copper fell by 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton, while LME copper decreased by 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton. The report also notes a significant increase in global visible copper inventory [17][28] 5. Aluminum - The aluminum processing sector shows resilience, with profitability per ton of aluminum expected to remain high. As of January 16, SHFE aluminum fell by 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton. The report indicates that the average profit for the aluminum industry is around 7,868 CNY per ton [16][89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to potential price fluctuations. As industrial product prices rise, domestic downstream negative feedback is increasing, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. Recent margin increases by CME and SHFE for certain products may lead to significant short-term price volatility in industrial metals. However, the overall bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Liquidity expectations are rebounding, which does not hinder the long-term bullish logic. Recent statements from Trump favoring Hassett for the National Economic Council chair have increased market expectations for the next Federal Reserve chair. The probability of a rate cut in April has dropped to 30%. This may lead to price fluctuations in precious metals due to the weakened short-term rate cut narrative. In the industrial sector, as prices rise, negative feedback from domestic downstream is intensifying, and inventory is accumulating rapidly [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.03% in the week ending January 16, ranking third among all industries [18] 3. Precious Metals - Short-term rate cut narratives are challenged, leading to potential price fluctuations in precious metals. For the week ending January 16, SHFE gold rose by 2.57% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 2.62% to 4,590.00 USD per ounce. SHFE silver surged by 20.03% to 22,483.00 CNY per kilogram, and COMEX silver rose by 12.30% to 89.19 USD per ounce [14][15][29] 4. Copper - Negative feedback is intensifying, leading to increased price volatility for copper. For the week ending January 16, SHFE copper fell by 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton, while LME copper decreased by 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton. The supply side remains tight, and the transmission to the smelting end is approaching [17][28] 5. Aluminum - The processing operation remains resilient, and the profit per ton of aluminum is expected to stay high. For the week ending January 16, SHFE aluminum fell by 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum decreased by 0.06% to 3,134 USD per ton. The processing operation rate slightly increased to 60.2%, with overall inventory accumulating [16][89]