Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and aerospace industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [7]. Core Insights - The Long March 12甲 rocket, despite not achieving its primary recovery goal, has provided valuable experience and is a crucial step in China's development of reusable rocket technology [10][11]. - The Wenchang International Aerospace Forum has opened, signaling rapid advancement in the commercialization and industrialization of the aerospace sector in China [12]. - The report emphasizes continued optimism for commercial aerospace, unmanned systems, new combat capabilities, and military trade as key growth areas [13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Long March 12甲 Rocket - The Long March 12甲 rocket's recent launch did not meet the recovery target for the first stage, but it successfully gathered critical data for future missions [10][11]. - The failure is seen as part of the iterative process necessary for achieving reusable technology, similar to the development path of SpaceX's Falcon 9 [11]. 1.2 Wenchang International Aerospace Forum - The forum aims to enhance the aerospace industry in Hainan, focusing on building a comprehensive ecosystem that includes rocket, satellite, and data services [12]. - The government is shifting its focus from merely launching rockets to developing downstream services and applications, indicating a move towards a more integrated aerospace industry [12]. 1.3 Future Outlook - As the 14th Five-Year Plan approaches, the report highlights the importance of new technologies in defense, including unmanned systems and deep-sea technology [13]. - The report suggests that military and civilian sectors will become significant growth drivers, with a focus on expanding military trade and high-end equipment exports [13]. Investment Targets - The report lists several investment targets in the commercial aerospace sector, including: - Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy) - National Science and Technology Military Industry (688543, Not Rated) - Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated) [13][14].

兆易创新 603986.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 2.47、3.96、5.00 元（原 25-26 年预测为 2.38、3.04 元），主要调整了营业收入与费用率。根据可比公司 26 年平均 65 倍 PE 估值，给予 257.40 元目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 需求复苏不及预期、价格上涨不及预期、新产品进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,761 | 7,356 | 9,452 | 12,461 | 15,871 | | 同比增长 (%) | -29.1% | 27.7% | 28.5% | 31.8% | 27.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 120 | 1,117 | 1,678 | 2,751 | 3,585 | | 同比增长 (%) | -94.6% | 832.8% | 50.2% | 63.9% | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The continuation of national subsidies is expected to stimulate consumption potential on both supply and demand sides, with stable white goods production planned for Q1 2026 [2][3] - The "Two New" policy is optimized and extended, which is anticipated to activate greater consumption potential in the home appliance sector [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Sales Outlook - The effect of national subsidies is expected to improve domestic sales conditions in Q1 2026 after the arrival of subsidy funds, despite a marginal slowdown in the subsidy effect [3][6] - January 2026 white goods production data shows a total of 34.53 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year, with variations in production across different product categories [6] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading companies with higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, which are seen as stable choices for investment [3] - Key stocks to consider include Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, not rated), and Hisense Visual (600060, increase holding) [3] - The long-term focus on overseas expansion is highlighted, with expectations for a valuation switch in 2026, particularly for Stone Technology (688169, not rated) [3] - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for a second growth curve, such as Anfu Technology (603031, not rated), are also recommended [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has officially released guidelines for commercial rocket companies to apply for the fifth set of listing standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which supports high-quality commercial rocket enterprises that have not yet formed a certain revenue scale to go public [2][7] - The commercial rocket industry is expected to experience rapid growth due to continuous policy support, accelerated technological iteration, and the release of rocket production capacity, leading to a significant increase in the number of rockets and launch frequency in China [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The guidelines emphasize that companies must have key core technologies and significant technological advantages or breakthroughs, focusing on the self-research capabilities of core components and key indicators such as payload capacity and multi-satellite launch capabilities [7] - The guidelines also require that commercial rocket companies achieve a milestone of successfully launching a medium to large reusable rocket payload into orbit [7] Market Dynamics - The commercial rocket sector is currently a bottleneck in the commercial aerospace industry, and with the release of production capacity, improvement in launch capabilities, and breakthroughs in reusable technology, the progress of satellite networking is expected to experience a leap forward [7] - The report identifies that the future of China's rocket sector will see a threefold resonance of capacity release, enhanced launch capabilities, and breakthroughs in reusable technology, which will accelerate the resolution of launch bottlenecks [7] Investment Targets - Recommended investment targets in the satellite sector include Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy), Zhenlei Technology (688270, Not Rated), and others [7] - Recommended investment targets in the rocket sector include Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated), Zhonghang Heavy Industry (600765, Buy), and others [7]

谷歌液冷快速增长及供应商模式破局，国 内供应商将迎来较大机会 ——AI 液冷系列报告之三 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，随着谷歌 TPU 需求增长、TPU v7 服务器全面转向液冷，预计谷歌服务 器液冷市场将迎来快速增长。谷歌液冷供应商选择的破局，将为国内供应商提供更多配 套市场空间，液冷业务将成为国内供应商的第二增长曲线。相关标的：英维克、银轮股 份、飞龙股份、川环科技、思泉新材、祥鑫科技、中鼎股份、溯联股份、高澜股份、申 菱环境、科创新源、同飞股份、宏盛股份、奕东电子等。 风险提示 海外数据中心如谷歌等扩张速度低于预期、液冷渗透率低于预期、国内液冷供应商出海 进度低于预期、市场竞争加剧、假设条件变化影响测算结果。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 袁俊轩 | 执业证书编号：S0860523070005 | | | ...

| 因子 | 周度观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 本周全球铁矿石发运量3464.50万吨，环比减少128.00万吨（-3.56%）； 澳洲发运量1950.60万吨，环比下降102.00万吨（-4.97%）； | | | | 巴西发运量864.10万吨，环比减少48.80万吨（–5.35%）；澳巴合计发运量2814.70万吨，环比下降150.80万吨（–5.09%）。本周中国 | 供给 | 中性 | | 45港铁矿到港量2646.70万吨，环比减少76.70万吨（-2.82%）。矿山发运保持稳定，李节性供应压力未见明显缓解。 | | | | 全国247家钢厂高炉产能利用率84.94%，环比微增0.01%（+0.01%）； 日均铁水产量226.58万吨，环比上升0.03万吨（+0.01%）； 盈利 | 謂求 | 利空 | | 比例37.23%，环比提升1.30%（-3.62%）。铁水产量延续李节性回落，终端成材订单韧性有限，钢厂补库意愿低迷。 | | | | 中国45港铁矿库存15858.66万吨，环比增加346.03万吨（+2.23%）； 中国47港铁矿库存16619.96万吨，环比增 ...

证券研究报告 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 共识开始凝聚，共同见证历史 —有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 52 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 铜精矿长单加工费敲定，冶炼端悲观预期 | 2025-12-26 | | --- | --- | | 靴子 ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a stable upward trend, with a potential for a red closing in the upcoming trading days despite minor fluctuations [3][10][15] Industry Comparison - The market has shown a consistent expectation for a rally in technology and dividend stocks since March 2023, indicating that the investment opportunities are shifting towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks after a four-year lull [4][16] Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks across three main lines: 1) The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation due to technological empowerment and supply constraints, with a focus on new materials, chemicals, metals, and agricultural products [5][17] 2) The consumer sector, which has been stagnant for years, is at a turning point with generally undervalued stocks and supply contraction, suggesting potential price increases [5][17] 3) The manufacturing sector is transitioning from mere "story speculation" to validating "orders and revenues," with attention on communication, electronics, power equipment, and machinery that show performance verification expectations [5][17] Thematic Investments - Key areas of focus include: - Aerospace satellites, which are becoming a short-term market focal point, with potential for increased volatility and significant IPO progress in satellite networks and commercial rockets [6][18] - Price increases in upstream sectors, driven by supply contraction and structural demand growth, particularly in non-ferrous metals and new energy industries [6][18] - Artificial intelligence, which has shown rotation across various segments but with lower-than-expected intensity, suggesting a need for continued monitoring [6][18] - Nuclear fusion, which is moving from theoretical research to engineering practice, indicating a potential for significant investment demand as commercialization progresses [6][18] Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution - Domestic wafer fabs are expected to expand production next year, and the capitalization processes of major domestic memory chip manufacturers are advancing, highlighting opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers and semiconductor materials [7][19] Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector has seen prolonged adjustments, but potential industry catalysts may emerge in the first quarter, warranting attention on the solid-state battery supply chain [7][19]

年末煤炭供应显著收缩，动力煤短期有望 止跌 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251222-20251228） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）在港口逐步去库的背景下，动力煤价格有望止跌，焦煤价格短期在季节 性补库的背景下走势偏强；（2）近期煤炭板块持续回调，市场对煤价预期较为悲观，短 期煤价止跌有望带来板块情绪的回暖，建议关注板块止跌反弹的机会。 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 焦煤价格如期反弹，动力煤关注港口库存 | 2025-12-21 | | --- | -- ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡有韵，结构为舟 朝闻道 20251229 市场策略 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时 风格策略 年末注意优选结构，中期择时中盘蓝筹 行业策略 公用事业：电力商品属性的定价有望为行业提估值 主题策略 智能驾驶：产业链暖风频吹，投资者心花渐开 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧、海外贸易摩擦加剧等风险 ⚫ 指数连阳反弹，再次站上 3900 点。自 8 月下旬以来，上涨指数围绕 3900 上下 100 多点震荡的格局较为清晰。微观筹码看，指数上有压力，下有半年线附近的支撑。 在指数未突破区间上下沿之前，保持震荡思维和轮动思路，以小周期的择时节奏把 握区间超额。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：沪深 300ETF（510300） ⚫ 立足中期视角，兼顾短期择时，在估值适中、机构低配、波动率收敛的板块和行业 中选择景气边际改善的中盘蓝筹品种，关注全球供给重塑及金融属性加持的周期 品、能以业绩验证预期的先进制造以及筹码结构得以优化的电子行业。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：中证现金流 ETF（159235）、有色 ETF（159980）、黄金 ...