宏观经济 | 专题报告 海外迎接四季度政策宽松窗口期 ——海外札记 20251027 经济基本面不确定性。 关税政策不确定性。 降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 研究结论 1）由于政府关门，10 月 CPI 可能无法发布。美国政府 10 月 1 日关门以来，资金中 断、强制休假导致劳工统计局调查人员无法进行实地数据收集和处理工作，意味着 美国政府很可能将无法发布 10 月份的通胀数据。 2）10 月 FOMC 会议在 28 日-29 日举行，会前没有就业数据发布，只能依靠替代性 指标观察目前的就业市场情况，ADP 数据显示 9 月美国私人部门就业人数萎缩 3.2 万人，近 4 个月中第三次新增就业为负，远不及市场预期，职位空缺数、PMI 就业 分项等领先指标均指向当前美国就业市场面临较大的下行压力。替代指标本身较 弱，在性质上无法推动美联储作出停止降息的重要决策转折。 3）在 12 月 FOMC 会议前，如果政府结束关门，美联储可能拿到 3 个月就业数据， 这批数据的信号很可能是复杂混合的，也难以改变政策持续降息的计划路线。 4）政策的计划路线：参考 9 月点阵图，对 2025、20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 54.18 CNY based on a 42x PE ratio for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to macroeconomic impacts on downstream demand and is in a strategic transformation phase with increased expenses [2][9]. - The core products maintain competitive advantages, with the DCS system holding a 40.4% market share and the SIS system at 31.2%, both leading in their respective categories [9]. - The company is investing heavily in AI and innovative business models, with subscription revenue from software reaching 0.77 million CNY, enhancing customer retention and future revenue sustainability [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 8,620 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 30.1%. However, projections for 2025 show a decline in revenue to 8,711 million CNY, a decrease of 4.7% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,102 million CNY, reflecting a 38.1% year-on-year increase, but is expected to drop to 1,024 million CNY in 2025, a decrease of 8.3% [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable around 33.4% in 2025, while the net profit margin is expected to decrease to 11.8% [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.29 CNY, 1.49 CNY, and 1.72 CNY respectively, adjusted from previous estimates [3][10]. - The company’s operating profit for 2025 is projected to be 1,099 million CNY, down from 1,185 million CNY in 2023 [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is focusing on AI products and robotics, with new offerings like the TPT model generating 1.54 million CNY in revenue and robotics contributing 1.22 million CNY as of Q3 2025 [9]. - The report highlights the importance of subscription models in building sustainable revenue streams and increasing customer loyalty [9].

宁波银行 002142.SZ 公司研究 | 季报点评 业绩持续提速，不良生成改善 宁波银行 25Q3 财报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根 据 25Q3 财 报 数 据 ， 预 测 公 司 25/26/27 归母净利润同比增速分别为 8.5%/8.6%/8.7% ， BVPS 为 35.08 元 /38.92 元 /43.10 元 （ 原 预 测 值 为 35.01/38.75/42.82 元，主要是适度调整息差预期），当前股价对应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 0.79X/0.71X/0.64X。采用历史估值法，参考公司近三年 PB（FY1）均值，给予 25 年 0.88 倍 PB，对应合理价值 30.80 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 61,585 | 66,631 | 72,131 | 78,645 | 86,004 | | 同比增长 (%) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.52 CNY, based on a 38x PE ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.4 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.8 billion CNY, up 22.4% year-on-year [10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming release of new products in the medical aesthetics sector, with significant revenue potential from its "童颜针" and "美光针" products [10]. - The report highlights the successful progress in the development of brain-machine interface technology, indicating a substantial market opportunity in the field of neurological diseases [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6,683 million CNY, 7,424 million CNY, and 8,272 million CNY, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, 11.1%, and 11.4% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,009 million CNY in 2025, 1,297 million CNY in 2026, and 1,594 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 308.6%, 28.6%, and 22.9% respectively [5]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 62.3% in 2025, with net margins projected at 15.1% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability, but progress on research and development (R&D) products is on track [2]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 526 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 31 million yuan, down 73.0% year-on-year [12]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue growth, with projections of 754 million yuan in 2025, 964 million yuan in 2026, and 1.308 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.6%, 27.8%, and 35.8% respectively [5][12]. Financial Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.22 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.85 yuan respectively, revised down from previous estimates [3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 57.0% in 2025 to 70.8% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 12.3% to 27.6% over the same period [5][12]. - The target price for the company is set at 32.64 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 68 times for 2026 [3][6]. Clinical Development Progress - The company is set to initiate Phase III clinical trials for CKBA for vitiligo and Phase II/III trials for rosacea by the end of 2025 [12]. - Several high-potential products are progressing through the review process, with expectations for approvals either by the end of this year or next year [12].

小米集团-W 01810.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 汽车交付量及小米 17 系列销量亮眼 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 1.63/2.06/2.60 元（原预测为 1.64/2.10/2.61 元，主要调整了营业收入及部分损益项）。根据可比公司 26 年 32 倍 PE 估值，对 应目标价为 71.65 港币（人民币港币汇率采用 1：1.094），维持买入评级。 风险提示 | 韩潇锐 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | | --- | --- | | | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 蒯剑 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 薛宏伟 | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 公司主要财务信息 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.53 CNY [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in operations starting from 2026, following a period of inventory clearance in 2025. The cautious mindset of franchisees is reflected in the financial statements, particularly impacting franchise business performance [2][10]. - The third quarter showed a narrowing decline in revenue and profit compared to previous quarters, with expectations of slight improvements across various sales channels [10]. - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 90% since 2021, indicating strong financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to decline from 3,030 million CNY in 2023 to 2,665 million CNY in 2025, before recovering to 3,115 million CNY by 2027 [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 572 million CNY in 2023 to 371 million CNY in 2025, with a recovery to 479 million CNY by 2027 [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to drop from 0.68 CNY in 2023 to 0.44 CNY in 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.57 CNY by 2027 [4][11]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 55.5% to 56.1% over the forecast period [4]. - **Net Margin**: The net margin is projected to decline from 18.9% in 2023 to 13.9% in 2025, before improving to 15.4% by 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 28, 2025, was 7.16 CNY, with a 52-week high of 9.29 CNY and a low of 6.99 CNY [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.68 CNY, based on a projected PB of 1.45X for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to steady profit growth. The proportion of low-margin construction rebar has decreased from 12.61% in 2024 to 9.33% in 2025, while the share of higher-margin special steel long products has increased to over 35% [9]. - The company has made significant advancements in high-end materials, achieving breakthroughs in critical areas. The gross margin for advanced steel materials reached 20.3% by Q3 2025, contributing positively to profits [9]. - Industry-wide production reduction measures are expected to stabilize steel prices, providing profit space for steel companies. As of September 2025, national crude steel production has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a trend towards supply-demand balance [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.176 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.12%. The Q3 2025 net profit reached 713 million CNY, marking the best quarterly performance since Q3 2022 [9]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 62.527 billion CNY, 62.218 billion CNY, and 62.538 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.973 billion CNY, 3.330 billion CNY, and 3.839 billion CNY [3][12]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 14.0% in 2025 to 15.0% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 4.8% to 6.1% over the same period [12].

Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to create a better environment for new productive forces, focusing on key technological breakthroughs in areas like integrated circuits and industrial mother machines[5] - The plan emphasizes "unprecedented" language regarding "extraordinary measures" and "systematic layout" for foundational research, indicating a strong push for original and disruptive innovations[5] - Traditional industries such as mining, metallurgy, and textiles are targeted for upgrades to enhance their global competitiveness, marking a shift from previous plans[5] Group 2: Financial Sector Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of building a strong financial nation, with a clear focus on systemic risk prevention and financial institution frameworks[5] - Future financial development is expected to align with three directions: risk prevention, supporting high-quality national development, and participating in global economic governance reforms[5] - The emphasis on a coordinated societal effort to boost investor confidence is a notable shift in the plan, aiming to foster a collective drive towards modernization[5] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in external demand due to changes in tariffs and trade dynamics[5] - The "anti-involution" trend may lead to shifts in industry structures, resulting in greater-than-expected declines in investment[5] - Technological advancements may disrupt labor markets, affecting certain job sectors[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 44.46 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 39 times for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with liquid cooling, robotics, and overseas business identified as key profit growth drivers [2][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.14, 1.51, and 1.93 CNY respectively, reflecting slight adjustments in gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 15.28 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.3% [5][11]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 11,018 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 29.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12,702 million CNY, 15,278 million CNY, 18,143 million CNY, and 21,502 million CNY respectively, with growth rates of 15.3%, 20.3%, 18.8%, and 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is expected to grow from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY by 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 67.7%, 23.6%, 23.3%, 32.4%, and 28.0% [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 612 million CNY in 2023 to 1,631 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 59.7%, 28.0%, 22.8%, 32.5%, and 28.0% [5][11]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 20.5% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 5.6% to 7.6% over the same period [5][11].